Earnings Call Transcript - EDRY Q4 2025

Operator, Operator

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to EuroDry Limited Conference Call for the Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results. We have with us today Mr. Aristides Pittas, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Mr. Anastasios Aslidis, Chief Financial Officer of the company. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. Please be reminded that the company announced its results with a press release that has been publicly distributed. Before passing the floor to Mr. Pittas, I would like to remind everybody that in today's presentation and conference call, EuroDry will be making forward-looking statements. These statements are within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Matters discussed may be forward-looking statements, which are based on current management expectations that involve risks and uncertainties that may result in such expectations not being realized. I kindly draw your attention to Slide #2 on the webcast presentation, which has the full forward-looking statement, and the same statement was also included in the press release. Please take a moment to go through the whole statement and read it. I would now like to turn the floor over to Mr. Pittas. Please go ahead, sir.

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for being here today for our conference call. Joining me is Tasos Aslidis, our Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is focused on our financial results for the periods ending December 31, 2025. Please look at Slide 3 of the presentation where our financial highlights are displayed. In the fourth quarter of 2025, we reported total net revenues of $17.4 million and net income attributable to controlling shareholders of $3.2 million, or $1.14 earnings per diluted share. The adjusted net income for the quarter was $2.4 million, or $0.87 per diluted share, with adjusted EBITDA at $7.5 million. You can find the reconciliation for adjusted net income and EBITDA in our press release. Tasos will provide more detailed financial highlights later in the presentation. Since launching our share repurchase plan of up to $10 million, announced in August 2022 and extended in subsequent years, we have repurchased 334,000 shares of our common stock in the open market for a total of $5.3 million. The timing and pace of these repurchases have been executed thoughtfully at management's discretion. Please move to Slide 4 to view our recent developments, including sales and purchases, as well as commercial and operational highlights. During the quarter, we sold the motor vessel Eirini P, a Panamax dry bulk vessel built in 2004, for $8.5 million. This vessel was one of the oldest in our fleet and was delivered to new owners on October 21, 2025, resulting in a gain just under $1 million as part of our fleet renewal strategy. In terms of chartering, our fixtures in the fourth quarter were mainly short-term. We completed a 1-year time charter for the motor vessel Christos K and an Ultramax dry bulk vessel at a rate of $15,500 per day, indicating a change from our previous strategy of maintaining full market exposure. If rates continue to rise, we plan to secure longer-term contracts for more vessels. Currently, 4 of our vessels are on index-linked charters at 115% of the average Baltic Supramax 10 time charter average index through at least November 2026, ensuring full exposure to market fluctuations. The remaining 7 vessels are on time charters lasting from about 1 month to just over 3 months. Details of the charters during this period can be found in the accompanying slide. We occasionally use Forward Freight Agreements as a hedging strategy. In November 2025, we entered into a forward freight agreement where we sold 180 days of the Supramax 10TC-average for Q1 2026 at an average of $12,012 per day, corresponding to roughly 2 vessels. Just yesterday, we completed the sale of 90 days of the Kamsarmax 5TC-average index for the second and third quarters of 2026 at an average of $19,250 for the second quarter and $17,250 for the third quarter, equivalent to 1 vessel. We also had no idle or off-hire periods during the quarter. Please turn to Slide 5 for our current fleet profile. EuroDry's fleet currently includes 11 vessels with an average age of around 14 years and a total carrying capacity of about 765,000 deadweight tons. We have 2 Ultramax vessels under construction, each with a capacity of 63,500 deadweight tons, set to deliver in the second and third quarters of 2027. Upon delivery, our fleet will increase to 13 vessels with a total carrying capacity of about 893,000 deadweight tons. Next, please look at Slide 6 for an update on our fleet employment. As of February 2026, our fixed rate coverage for the remainder of the year is about 22% based on existing time charter agreements, not including the 4 vessels on index-linked charters. Turning to Slide 8, we will now examine the market highlights for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, up to recent times. Panamax spot rates fell sharply from around $14,600 per day in the fourth quarter to about $9,650 per day by late December, recovering to around $13,500 per day thereafter. As of February 13, 1-year time charter rates have further risen above spot levels, with Clarksons assessing the standard Panamax 1-year time charter rate at approximately $16,250 per day. During the fourth quarter, the Baltic Dry Index and the Bulk Panamax Index recorded year-over-year increases of approximately 47% and 52%, respectively, due to stronger-than-expected demand and disruptions in vessel supply. Despite the rebound, freight markets remain volatile amid macroeconomic uncertainty and uneven regional trade. Please turn to Slide 9. According to the IMF's January 2026 World Economic Outlook update, the global economy is projected to continue expanding with GDP growth forecast at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. Despite this, there are notable risks, including potentially overly optimistic expectations for technology-driven growth and escalating geopolitical tensions. Continued trade frictions and geopolitical fragmentation create further uncertainty for the global economy. Recent events in Venezuela and military tensions in the Middle East remind us of the external risks we face. Nonetheless, some trade pressures are expected to ease in 2026, potentially reducing the impact of tariffs on overall growth. The U.S. is projected to see steady growth, with GDP growth expected at roughly 2.4% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. Business and consumer sentiment appears subdued, and inflation is anticipated to improve gradually. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in January 2026, noting improvements in economic conditions while signaling caution regarding future policy changes. Among emerging markets, India is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing economies with GDP growth projected at approximately 6.4% for both 2026 and 2027. Recent trade agreements, including the new U.S.-India trade deal, are set to reduce trade-related uncertainty and could help restart private investment cycles. The ASEAN-5 region expects solid growth as well, with expansions projected at 4.2% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027. Meanwhile, China's growth trajectory is expected to moderate, with GDP growth forecast at 4.5% in 2026, down from 5% in 2025, due to weaker external demand and ongoing challenges in the property sector. In the dry bulk sector, Clarksons predicts trade growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, indicating continued growth in dry bulk trade volumes, albeit at a slower pace. Please turn to Slide 10 to review the current state of the order book in dry bulk. As of February 2026, the order book is approximately 12.4% of the existing fleet, which is higher than 7.5% in 2021, but still among the lowest levels historically. Limited ordering activity reflects shipyard capacity constraints, high newbuilding costs, and uncertainty surrounding future fuel technologies and regulations. Turning to Slide 11, the total dry bulk fleet consists of around 14,600 vessels, representing about 1.1 billion deadweight tons. New deliveries are projected at 4.2% of the existing fleet for 2026, slightly lower due to slippage and demolitions. Roughly 11% of the global fleet is over 20 years old and may be considered for scrapping if market conditions change. Please go to Slide 12 for our dry bulk market outlook. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the dry bulk carrier market strengthened with average Supramax and Panamax time charter rates rising about 8% from Q3, reaching the highest levels in two years. Seasonal demand supported this momentum, and new trade routes, particularly in the bauxite trade from West Africa, are creating new market dynamics. This trade has significantly increased, representing over 15% of Capesize cargo volumes. Looking forward to 2026, we anticipate similar market conditions to 2025, although ongoing geopolitical disruptions create forecasting challenges with risks both upwards and downwards. While dry bulk demand growth might lag behind fleet expansion, factors such as off-hire periods and slower operating speeds should help maintain balance. Capesize vessels are expected to outperform smaller classes, driven by the expanding bauxite trade, and the Guinea's Simandou iron ore project is poised to increase global supply significantly once production ramps up. Over time, this could reduce China's reliance on Australian and Brazilian imports. Additionally, Chinese soybean purchases from the U.S. remain important following the October trade truce. Changes in Red Sea routing patterns might reduce vessel demand if ships return to traditional routes, while geopolitical events could continue to shift trade flows. On the supply side, newbuilding activity is being kept in check, as shipyard capacity remains constrained for several years. The order book to fleet ratio is still low historically, which might support charter rate recovery if demand strengthens. However, order books for Panamax and Ultramax vessels are closer to historical median levels, while Capesize order books remain near historical lows. While the industry is moving towards alternative fuels, the transition may be slower than expected due to technical complexities and delays in developing the IMO net zero framework. Looking towards 2027, visibility is still uncertain. Global growth and geopolitical forces will be key factors influencing the market, which we expect to remain balanced but sensitive to various risks. Finally, let's look at Slide 13. As of February 13, 2026, the 1-year time charter rate for a 75,000 deadweight Panamax vessel is $16,250 per day, showing a slight increase week-over-week and remaining above the historical median of $13,375 per day. In the asset market, values for 10-year-old Panamax bulk carriers have remained steady despite an overall 8% correction from their mid-2024 peak. Current prices around $27 million are significantly above historical medians and average values, indicating resilience in secondhand valuations. This strength is supported by higher newbuilding prices, driven by inflation, limited shipyard availability, and costs associated with environmental compliance. Healthy liquidity and cautious fleet growth expectations continue to bolster investor confidence in the sector. Although prices have pulled back from mid-2024 peaks, they still remain high by historical standards. To conclude my part of the presentation, I would like to emphasize our profitable fourth quarter of 2025 and the continued enhancement of our liquidity position. Following the sale of the Eirini P, the refinancing of the Yannis Pittas loan, and the funding of a significant portion of our upcoming vessel deliveries, our balance sheet is much stronger now. This improved liquidity prepares us to pursue further investments if attractive opportunities arise, even though we currently don't see many in this high valuation climate. Looking forward, we will focus on disciplined capital allocation, operational efficiency, and generating profits for our shareholders. Now, I will hand it over to Tasos for his segment of the presentation.

Anastasios Aslidis, CFO

Thank you, Aristides. Good morning, everyone. Over the next few slides, I will summarize our financial highlights for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, comparing them to the same periods in 2024. Let's move to Slide 15. In the fourth quarter of 2025, we reported total net revenues of $17.4 million, a 19.9% increase from $14.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. This increase was driven by higher time charter rates for our vessels, partially offset by a lower average number of vessels operated in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the prior year. Interest and other financing costs dropped to $1.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 from $1.9 million the previous year, primarily due to lower interest rates on our loans and reduced average debt. Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $7.55 million, up from $1.85 million in the same quarter of 2024, representing an increase of over 300%. We also recorded a $0.7 million gain from the sale of our MV Eirini P during Q4 2025, compared to no sales in Q4 2024. Basic and diluted earnings per share for controlling shareholders in Q4 2025 were $1.14, based on approximately 2.8 million shares, compared to a loss of $2.28 per share on approximately 2.7 million shares in Q4 2024. Excluding unrealized gains on derivatives and the gain from the vessel sale, adjusted earnings per share for Q4 2025 would have been $0.88 and $0.87 respectively, compared to an adjusted loss of $1.33 per share in the same quarter of the previous year. Now, let's review the full year 2025 compared to 2024. For 2025, total net revenues were $52.3 million, a 14.4% decrease from $61.1 million in 2024, due to both a reduced number of vessels operated and slightly lower average time charter equivalent rates. Interest and financing costs for the year amounted to $6.9 million, down from $8 million in 2024, also primarily attributed to lower interest rates, though partially offset by increased average debt. Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $12.55 million compared to $9.4 million in 2024, reflecting a 33% increase. We reported a $2.8 million gain from vessel sales, including the Eirini P and Tasos, with no vessel sales in 2024. The basic and diluted loss per share for 2025 was $1.55, compared to a loss of $4.62 in 2024. Excluding unrealized losses on derivatives and the net gain from vessel sales, the adjusted loss per share would have been $2.50, compared to an adjusted loss of $4.10 in 2024. Moving to Slide 16, we will examine utilization rates for both the fourth quarter and the full year of both years. In Q4 2025, our commercial utilization rate was 100%, with an operational utilization rate of 99.6%, compared to 100% commercial and 99.4% operational in the year before. We averaged 11.2 vessels during Q4 2025, earning an average time charter equivalent rate of $16,260 per day, compared to 13 vessels at $12,201 per day in the previous year. Total operating expenses, excluding drydocking, were $7,869 per vessel per day in Q4 2025, up from $7,087 in Q4 2024. Our daily cash flow breakeven rate for Q4 2025 was $13,231, compared to $11,259 in Q4 2024, reflecting higher drydocking expenses in that period. For the full year, our utilization rates were around 99%, with average time charter equivalent rates of $11,642 in 2025 versus $13,039 in 2024. While Q4 2025 showed significant improvement over Q4 2024, the lower average rates for the whole year were influenced by a softer market at the beginning of the year. Operating expenses averaged $7,422 in 2025 compared to $6,967 in 2024. The full-year cash flow breakeven was $12,345 for 2025 versus $13,221 for 2024, primarily due to lower average drydocking expenses. Let's move on to Slide 17 to review our debt profile. As of December 31, 2025, our outstanding debt was $103.7 million, with an average margin of about 2%. Assuming a 3-month SOF rate of around 3.65%, our average cost of senior debt was 5.65%. Our debt amortization schedule shows repayments of $12.2 million in 2026, $21 million in 2027, and $17 million in 2028, including balloon payments. The current debt figure includes only part of one of the two loans for financing Ultramax newbuildings, with repayment amounts reflecting the loans we have started to draw for these newbuildings. Now, turning to the bottom of this slide, we can see our cash flow breakeven estimate for the next 12 months. Our EBITDA breakeven level is $7,478 per day, and the overall cash flow breakeven level is projected to be around $11,663 per vessel per day. Now, let's move to the last slide, Slide 18, to summarize our balance sheet highlights. As of December 31, 2025, cash and other assets totaled approximately $31.8 million, with advances for newbuildings at about $14.4 million. The book value of our vessels stood at around $166 million, leading to a total book value of assets of approximately $212 million. On the liabilities side, our bank debt amounted to $103.7 million, while other short-term liabilities were $5.9 million, constituting about 66% of our overall liabilities. This results in a book value of shareholders' equity of about $93 million, translating to a net book value per share of $31.8. However, based on internal and external fleet valuations, the market value of our fleet is estimated at about $214 million, suggesting a difference of approximately $48 million to be added to our shares' value. This gives a net asset value per share exceeding $48. Compared to our recent trading range, currently around $17, there is significant potential upside for our stock. We hope that shareholders and potential investors recognize this opportunity, which we believe will lead to substantial returns on their investments. I will now hand it back to Aristides to continue the call.

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Tasos. And let us now open up the floor for any questions we may have.

Operator, Operator

Our first question is from Tate Sullivan with Maxim Group.

Tate Sullivan, Analyst

I was just looking first at your noncontrolling interest and income to the joint venture partners. And if I recall, you started that arrangement with NRP partners a couple of years ago. Are you happy with how the JV has gone? Is that still a source of financing or transactions that you look at going forward in this current market there, please?

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

Yes, we are very pleased with the discussions we are having with NRP and the investors they have brought on board for this project. Everything is progressing smoothly. We are excited that the Norwegian market is becoming increasingly aware of EuroDry, and we look forward to potentially engaging in more deals like this in the future.

Tate Sullivan, Analyst

Is that primarily a Norwegian-based entity? Or have you disclosed that?

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

Yes. It's a Norwegian-based entity and the investors within this group are mainly Norwegian.

Tate Sullivan, Analyst

And separately, in your presentation, you had a great data point on bauxite as a percent of Capesize cargoes. I was wondering if you do have sort of a similar cargo present, not bauxite for your fleet, but a cargo breakdown for your fleet with per ship carrying capacity of about 60,000 to 82,000 deadweight tons each. Is it more soybeans, as you noted, more demand? Or might you have a rough mix on...

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

We can offline present you with the data of the various ships that we have and what they have carried, if I understood correctly during the year. We can discuss it.

Tate Sullivan, Analyst

Can you comment on coal demand? Has it significantly decreased compared to iron ore demand and soybeans? I didn't see coal mentioned in your presentation.

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

Yes. Coal is a commodity that for the last 5 or 6 years, we are saying that it reached peak consumption, and it's never happened up to date. So actually, I think this year was pretty steady. Going forward, it is certain that coal will be a smaller percentage of the mix of energy. But as an absolute value, I think it will continue growing.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Hans Baldau with NOBLE Capital Markets.

Hans Baldau, Analyst

Congratulations on a strong quarter to conclude the year. Currently, the fixed rate coverage for 2026 is at 22%. It was noted that you are considering securing more long-term charters. With the cash flow breakeven for next year set at $11,663 and current rates significantly exceeding that, how are you approaching the expansion of coverage? Also, do you have an estimate of what percentage of the fleet you plan to secure with long-term charters this year?

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

It's difficult to say because it depends a lot on how the market evolves. But right now, we're seeing a strengthening market day by day. We did take some cover yesterday as we fixed an FFA contract, as I said during the presentation, we fixed 90 days for Q2 at $19,250 and another 90 days of Q3 at $17,250, which is a hedge to the open vessels that we currently have. So we will fix more at these levels, but I can't say how much more.

Hans Baldau, Analyst

You mentioned that we are modeling 2026, which looks very similar to 2025. Currently, the rates at the beginning of 2026 are much stronger than they were at the start of 2025. Could you elaborate on the similarities between 2025 and 2026? Are you anticipating rates to revert to 2025 levels, and what makes them similar to 2025?

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

Indeed, 2026 has started off very strongly and stronger than what we expected. So we might be surprised on the positive side during the year. But there are so many uncertainties about how trade will develop, what will happen in the geopolitical arena, will ships start going back through Suez or not? Will there be further embargoes, tariffs? So it is really a very difficult market to predict. What is easy to see is the supply of ships, and we expect the supply of ships to increase by about 4%, take away 1%, 1.5%, 2% for scrapping and delays. We see that the fleet will not increase considerably. But really to make a call about how strong demand will end up being is extremely difficult. So the average rate for 2026 could end up being similar to 2025. Of course, we hope that it will be even higher.

Anastasios Aslidis, CFO

I think the current FFA market indicates a higher level. However, as Aristides mentioned, there are many uncertainties that...

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

If you look at the FFA market from just two weeks ago, it showed the same trend. The market is evolving, and opinions about it can change rapidly.

Hans Baldau, Analyst

Could you provide more details about your fleet renewal and modernization strategy? The Santa Cruz, Starlight, and Blessed Luck are all older vessels. Should we anticipate that they will be offloaded this year, or what is your plan regarding them?

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

We haven't made a decision yet. Currently, we have two ships built in 2004 and one built in 2005, which are relatively old. If we decide to sell them, we might consider acquiring more modern ships. This is a strategy we discuss regularly, but there hasn't been a definite decision made yet.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from Poe Fratt with Alliance Global Partners.

Charles Fratt, Analyst

Aristides, Tasos, the macro has been pretty well covered. I had a micro question. Tasos, maybe I missed it, but can you just highlight whether there was a change to your reported numbers for the fourth quarter of 2024? And then can you talk about the claim that you settled, I think, in the fourth quarter of '25. And then can you talk about the cash impact of that insurance claim and then whether that's totally closed out or whether we might see some adjustments in 2026?

Anastasios Aslidis, CFO

Yes. We had to recognize that claim in our fourth quarter numbers after we issued the press release, but it was included in our 20-F information in our audited results. That's why you might see a difference if you compare it to the press release, but when compared to the 20-F, the recognition of that claim was included. That situation has been resolved, and we recovered the $1.4 million that we are recording as other operating income. I believe that situation is now closed, and we don't expect anything further, whether positive or negative.

Operator, Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Pittas for closing remarks.

Aristides Pittas, Chairman and CEO

Thank you all for listening to today's presentation, and then we will be back in 3 months' time with hopefully another quarter of good results.

Anastasios Aslidis, CFO

Thanks, everybody.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect at this time, and thank you for your participation.