Earnings Call Transcript - EE Q1 2026

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to Excelerate Energy's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Operator provided instructions. I will now hand the conference over to Craig Hicks, Vice President, Investor Relations and Strategy. Please go ahead.

Craig Hicks, Vice President, Investor Relations and Strategy

Good morning, and thank you for joining Excelerate Energy's First Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Steven Kobos, President and CEO; and Dana Armstrong, Chief Financial Officer. Also joining the call are Oliver Simpson, Chief Commercial Officer; and David Liner, Chief Operating Officer. Our first quarter earnings press release and presentation were published yesterday afternoon and are available on our website at ir.excelerateenergy.com. Before we begin, please note that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. We undertake no obligation to update these statements. We'll also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found at the end of the presentation. With that, it is my pleasure to pass the call over to Steven Kobos.

Steven Kobos, President and CEO

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before I get into the quarter, I want to take a moment to acknowledge something that goes beyond the financials. We have employees, seafarers and partners operating in and around the Arabian Gulf. Our thoughts and prayers are with them and with their families during what is a difficult and uncertain time. The safety of our people is always our top priority, and I want them to know that they have our full support. Against that backdrop, I am proud of how Excelerate performed this quarter. We delivered $122 million of adjusted EBITDA and achieved a 99.8% reliability rate across our asset portfolio. Those results reflect the strength of our contracted asset portfolio and the dedication of the teams who operate them every day. This strong performance is a direct result of how we built this business. Excelerate is a global LNG and power infrastructure company. We own and operate assets that deliver reliable downstream LNG and power solutions to countries who depend on us for their energy security. That responsibility is central to how we operate, how we invest and how we manage risk. Our operations span four continents, and that geographic reach translates directly into revenue and earnings diversification. It is a core reason we are able to perform across market cycles and limit the financial impact of regional disruptions. As the global energy landscape grows more complex, the ability to deliver energy safely and without interruption matters even more. That brings me to the macro environment, which provides an important context for today's discussion. As we've highlighted previously, the global LNG market is moving into a period of meaningful and sustained supply growth. Despite recent geopolitical events, approximately 200 million tons of new LNG supply will still come online between now and the end of the decade. The conflict in the Middle East is accelerating the push for greater geographic diversification of supply. This will result in even more LNG volumes reaching the market. Those volumes will only intensify the need for more regasification capacity. In recent weeks, we've heard commentary around pricing dynamics, potential project delays and market hesitation in certain regions. While those near-term dynamics are real, they should be evaluated separately from the structural need for regasification as new supply enters the market. The fact is long-term contracted LNG pricing has been and remains affordable. That is why many of the countries and markets we are targeting continue to turn to LNG as a fuel source. In this environment, Excelerate's role is clear. We provide the downstream infrastructure that connects new supply to the customers who need it most, and we do it under contract with assets we own and operate. That's the structural backdrop. Now let me walk you through how it is showing up in our operations. I'll start with the Middle East. Since the conflict began, our focus has been on the elements of the business within our direct control. We optimized our asset portfolio to protect earnings, maintain operational continuity and demonstrate the rigor our customers and investors expect. Our terminal services operations performed as we expected, and we saw limited financial impact during the quarter, in large part due to the quality of our contracts and the nature of the services we provide. The two FSRUs operating in the UAE, the Explorer and the Express, are fully operational and our crews are safe. We are proud to support Dubai, Abu Dhabi and the broader UAE as a component of their energy infrastructure for more than a decade. Turning to our LNG supply agreements. In March, as a result of the conflict, we received a Force Majeure notice from QatarEnergy related to our supply agreement. We subsequently issued a corresponding FM notice to Petrobangla, our customer in Bangladesh. These agreements are structured on a back-to-back basis with delivery obligations aligned to supply commitments and supported by contractual FM protections. This structure is allowing us to manage the current disruption in an orderly way. Based on our current assessment, we expect the financial impact to be approximately $1 million per month while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Our commitment to the region extends beyond the UAE. Let me update you on the Iraq terminal. The fundamentals supporting this project have not changed. Iraq faces chronic power shortages and limited domestic gas processing capacity. These structural deficits are not going away. The need for scalable gas import infrastructure is as real today as it was when we signed the contract in Q4 2025. Current conditions have only heightened that need. Our customer shares the same view, and we are committed to working with them on the best path forward. What has changed is the near-term path to startup. The conflict in the Middle East has created logistical constraints that have delayed jetty reinforcement and construction of the fixed terminal infrastructure. As a result, we no longer expect the terminal to commence operations in Q3 2026 as we previously disclosed. Project startup is now expected in 2027. This is a shift in timing, not a cancellation. The contract is structured as a 60-month agreement that begins once operations commence. We are taking a measured safety-first approach with construction resuming as conditions allow. Once underway, we expect approximately six months before operations begin. We are managing this project for the long term and remain confident in the opportunity. With the Iraq project now delayed, we have been evaluating opportunities to optimize the Excelerate Acadia, our newbuild FSRU in the near term. In early April, the Acadia was delivered successfully from Hyundai Heavy Industries. This week, we executed a nine-month time charter party agreement with Jordan's National Electric Power Company, NEPCO, to deploy the Acadia to the country's existing LNG import terminal in Aqaba. The Acadia is expected to commence operations in Jordan by mid-2026, and the deal will generate roughly $20 million of adjusted EBITDA this year. The interim deployment enhances Jordan's energy security by providing additional regasification capacity and generates incremental earnings. It does this while we continue to advance the Iraq integrated import terminal. It also underscores the continued demand for our assets and the commercial resilience of our business, even amid broader regional disruption. Now let me turn to Jamaica, where our integrated platform continues to deliver. A year ago this month, we added the integrated LNG power platform in Jamaica to our asset portfolio. Jamaica is a core component of our business and one of the strongest proof points of Excelerate's strategy. In the first quarter, the Jamaica platform delivered reliability of 99%. That consistency underpins the contracted cash flows that have contributed meaningfully to our overall growth. Beyond operations, we are making commercial progress on the island. Gas volumes are growing through new customer agreements and incremental sales to existing customers. We are pleased to be a partner with the Jamaican government and look forward to advancing new opportunities in Jamaica and throughout the Caribbean. The financials this quarter reflect the operating momentum I've described. Next, Dana will take you through the numbers, our capital priorities and the updated outlook. Dana?

Dana Armstrong, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Steven, and good morning, everyone. Excelerate delivered solid financial results for the first quarter. We reported net income of $50 million, a sequential increase of $11 million or up 28% as compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $122 million, up roughly $10 million or up about 9% versus the prior quarter. The net income and adjusted EBITDA increases were driven primarily by vessel optimization and higher LNG gas and power margins. Adjusted EBITDA increased compared to the first quarter of last year due to an increase in LNG gas and power margins, mostly driven by the impact from the Jamaica acquisition. For the first quarter, maintenance CapEx was $8 million and committed growth capital was $17 million. Now let's turn to our balance sheet. As of March 31, 2026, total debt, including finance leases, was $1.3 billion with $540 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand. The full $500 million of capacity under our revolver was available as of quarter end. Net debt was $714 million and trailing net leverage was 1.5x. From a capital allocation perspective, our priorities are unchanged. We are focused on investing in accretive growth while delivering consistent shareholder returns through dividends and opportunistic share repurchases. Last week, the Board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share or $0.32 per share annualized payable on June 4, 2026. In December 2025, our Board authorized a $75 million share repurchase program, providing added flexibility to return capital while continuing to invest in our growth priorities. During the first quarter, we repurchased roughly 148,000 shares or just over $5 million of our Class A common stock at a weighted average price of $34.07 per share. With that capital framework in mind, let me walk through our updated financial outlook for the year. We have revised our full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA and committed growth capital guidance to reflect the delayed start-up of the integrated Iraq LNG import terminal. As Steven described, this is a timing shift driven by the Middle East conflict. We continue to view Iraq as an attractive opportunity and construction will resume as soon as conditions allow. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year is now expected to range between $480 million and $510 million. Consistent with that shift, we now expect 2026 committed growth capital to range between $270 million and $300 million, reflecting the deferral of certain Iraq-related construction activity into 2027. To be clear, this revised committed growth capital guidance does not yet include costs associated with our FSRU conversion. Negotiations for the conversion work are ongoing. We have signed a letter of intent with the Seatrium Shipyard in Singapore, and we'll provide additional updates once final contracts with the shipyard are executed. Our 2026 maintenance CapEx guidance is unchanged at $100 million to $110 million. With respect to dry dock timing, we continue to refine schedules through close coordination with our customers to identify the most efficient and least disruptive maintenance windows. Our current plan assumes that the Express will proceed with its scheduled dry dock at the end of its current contract in the third quarter of this year. Once that work is completed, we expect the Express will redeploy to Pakistan to substitute for the Exquisite, which is now anticipated to enter dry dock in the fourth quarter of this year. This updated outlook reflects careful planning, solid underlying fundamentals and a continued focus on building durable contracted earnings. Looking beyond 2026, the growth path through 2028 remains intact. On our February call, we outlined a framework for sequenced earnings growth through 2028, supported by a defined set of executable initiatives. While the Iraq start-up has shifted due to external factors, we maintain visibility to growth through actions within our control. First, the Express is expected to be redelivered at the expiration of its current contract. We have high confidence in redeploying that vessel at improved economics, which we expect to support incremental EBITDA in 2027. Second, our planned FSRU conversion provides an additional source of earnings growth in 2028, following completion of the conversion and commercial deployment of that vessel. This represents the next major capital deployment after Iraq and supports continued earnings expansion. Third, as Steven discussed, we are focused on driving additional growth through a range of scalable LNG solutions, including in Jamaica and the Caribbean and throughout the rest of the world. Together, these initiatives provide a sequenced pathway to extend growth through 2028 and beyond. With that, let's open up the line for questions.

Operator, Operator

Operator provided instructions. And our first question comes from the line of Elias Jossen with JPMorgan.

Elias Jossen, Analyst, JPMorgan

Just wanted to start on the supply portfolio and think about how you guys are approaching diversification going forward. Obviously, the Qatar situation is ongoing and developing, and I think you laid it out well in your opening remarks. But how should we think about your overall strategy to ensure supply in the longer term? And what options do you have there? Yes. That's helpful color. And then maybe thinking about sort of the increased capital allocation and optionality there. Obviously, you have a really strong growth platform in Jamaica, and this is a temporary sort of situation. So, as the cash and overall flexibility builds, what should we think about as kind of the key growth priorities this year and heading into next year? And what else might we see sanctioned on the growth front?

Steven Kobos, President and CEO

It's Steven. Let me jump into that. First, we like to give customers what our customers want to receive. Some customers prefer more diversification in delivery sources than others. Our response will be reactive to what our customers want their portfolio deliveries to look like. Remember, we're largely discussing the component of LNG that we control. That's primarily the integrated projects, such as Iraq when it comes online and the one million tonnes into Bangladesh, along with some Caribbean growth. The vast majority of our earnings and revenue are capacity payments for our infrastructure. We have good diversification already across continents. We have four contracts coming from divergent locations. I think we've done a good job building geographic diversity. Kudos to Oliver's team for that. We will continue to be sensible about geographic timelines as well. So, we are already taking diversification into account, and we will continue to do so. What I want to emphasize, Eli, is what we've always said: we're pretty conservative about commodity exposure. You don't see us taking commodity risks. We're determined to be a steady infrastructure provider that integrates molecules. On the Jamaica question, I have a little bit of color since you mentioned Jamaica. We were very grateful to the U.S. Embassy in Kingston, which hosted Excelerate for a reception last week for Jamaican business leaders and the Jamaican government. Our Board of Directors also visited our facilities there. We're very proud of that platform and expect good things from it. Our view on CapEx requirements in the Caribbean remains intact from prior guidance. It's somewhat opportunistic. We're already seeing increased gas sales and new customers in Jamaica, and we want to expand throughout the Caribbean, adding more spokes to that hub. We are actively doing that. If opportunities are small, we may not announce them broadly. When they are larger, we will announce them.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Chris Robertson with Deutsche Bank.

Christopher Robertson, Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Maybe to start with just following up on the conversion project here. I know Dana mentioned the timeline and CapEx devoted to it and some discussions there. But just thinking about it in terms of any commercial discussions or plans regarding more integrated type project, given the current volatility in the Middle East, how are you thinking about where to potentially look for a subsequent integrated project or to deploy that asset? I know it's maybe a couple of years off here, but has anything changed in your mind about how you're strategically positioning the asset given the current situation?

Steven Kobos, President and CEO

Yes. Let me, this is Steven, Chris. First, our strategic priorities haven't changed. The markets we liked before the conflict are still attractive. This is a near-term supply disruption, not demand destruction. We're not pivoting from the markets we were pursuing before the conflict. Second, as you saw with the Iraq announcement and the Jordan charter, those developments reflect opportunities in our existing pipeline. We have a number of opportunities we're pursuing, and you should expect that we will announce them when the commercial agreements are in place. We are looking on every continent, throughout the Caribbean, and continue to focus on markets we've highlighted before, such as South Asia and East Asia.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Craig Shere with Tuohy.

Craig Shere, Analyst, Tuohy

So on the Jamaica and Eli's question, I think you had mentioned, Steven, that you're already seeing some organic upside on the island. And there was kind of a bifurcation that maybe wasn't laid out explicitly as well about the growth opportunity in Jamaica with some incredibly low-hanging fruit with capacity utilization upside that really doesn't involve a lot of CapEx and could at least be notable in terms of EBITDA driver, combined with a larger CapEx opportunity that is accretive that could hit by decade end. Could you elaborate on the cadence of this and opportunity set, what might come even before we see tens of millions of dollars of investment?

Steven Kobos, President and CEO

Craig, I'm going to pass that to Oliver. I don't think I ever called the opportunities 'very low-hanging fruit' in the sense you suggested, but we are seeing early wins. If it's de minimis CapEx, it will show up in performance over time, likely later in 2026 for some opportunities. Let me hand it to Oliver to provide more detail on cadence and opportunity.

Oliver Simpson, Chief Commercial Officer

Thanks, Craig. The bifurcation you speak to is correct. There are opportunities using the platform we have today that we've already been able to capitalize on, and there are higher CapEx opportunities that would come later. In terms of timing, as more LNG supply comes online from the U.S., I expect a correlation with these opportunities as the affordability of long-term supply displaces other fuels in some regional markets. The higher CapEx projects are likely to be toward the later end of the timeframe, but we remain confident in those opportunities. In the near term, we see good, near-term opportunities that will build into the larger CapEx opportunities over time.

Craig Shere, Analyst, Tuohy

And maybe I could also follow up on Craig's question. I think you were talking about the FSRU conversion opportunity there. But you've talked about both the opportunity to redeploy Express in 2027 and the potential Shenandoah conversion into 2028. And both those opportunities or asset redeployments potentially supporting entirely new downstream opportunities. Over time, you've mentioned a few of those from Vietnam to Bangladesh and beyond. Is it unreasonable to think that the redeployment of these assets into 2027 and 2028 could combine into tens of millions of dollars of EBITDA run-rate upside?

Steven Kobos, President and CEO

That's not unreasonable at all. We're going to evaluate opportunities with our counterparties to be a reliable long-term partner. Some deals will be capacity-focused; some may be integrated where the addition of molecules has payment performance that resembles our infrastructure business. We will pursue both approaches and remain flexible. We believe the future of LNG is regasification capacity. There are not enough regas facilities, and we are among the few focused on it. Our pipeline is active around the world, opportunities are staggered, and we expect sustained growth with the sequenced expansion through 2028 that Dana referenced. I have strong conviction about the market and Excelerate's position.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Bobby Brooks with Northland Capital Markets.

Bobby Brooks, Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

I thought it was pretty impressive how quickly you recontracted the FSRU Acadia on that nine-month deployment in Jordan. And I think it should really remind investors of the flexibilities of this asset class. What I was curious to hear more on was sort of how quickly the conversations went from, 'okay, this Iraqi terminal is going to be delayed. Let's look and see if we can deploy the Acadia somewhere short term' to actually getting that Jordan deal signed.

Steven Kobos, President and CEO

Bobby, if our regional teams haven't been reaching out to counterparts around the world routinely, I'd be disappointed. Relationships and contact often build over years; you just need to activate them. That's the virtue of having regional teams with experience across many markets. These are floating assets; they are redeployable and flexible. That allows us to take advantage of opportunities when they arise. If you're building fixed infrastructure and it slows down, you don't have that flexibility. This asset class provides an advantage in capturing the total addressable market.

Bobby Brooks, Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Awesome to hear. And it was also exciting to hear the new customer agreements and growing sales to existing customers in Jamaica. I was hoping to get a little more context on how much of an increase that is and how many more opportunities you see to do more of that. Also, how would infrastructure expansions in Jamaica look compared to the broader Caribbean?

Oliver Simpson, Chief Commercial Officer

Bobby, we haven't provided specific volumes for the near-term increases, but you'll see that aggregation come through in our guidance over time. Some near-term gains are occurring in Jamaica. On the small-scale side, through trucking and trucking infrastructure, it's relatively straightforward to deliver incremental volumes via the platform we have. Our team on the ground is pursuing those opportunities, and we expect organic growth over the coming months and years. More broadly, Jamaica's FSRU acts as a sizeable storage hub in the Caribbean that we can use to reach other markets — the spokes we've discussed. Deliveries to other islands could be done via ISO tanks, small-scale vessels, or by developing small-scale import facilities. We are technology-agnostic in the sense that it's about meeting customer demand with the right technical solution for each island. We will give customers the solutions they need.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Wade Suki with Capital One.

Wade Suki, Analyst, Capital One

Just quickly, a housekeeping item on timing. I think I heard you say the Express will be in dry dock in the third quarter, then moving to Pakistan in the fourth quarter with the Exquisite going into dry dock. Is that right?

David Liner, Chief Operating Officer

Wade, yes, that's correct. Our current plan is for the Express to go into dry dock at the end of the third quarter and then to provide a replacement when Exquisite enters dry dock around the fourth quarter.

Wade Suki, Analyst, Capital One

Got it. Got it. Okay. Great. And just maybe to dovetail off Bobby's question: thinking about the longer-term solution in Jordan, is there a possible opportunity longer term in Jordan for the Express after the Acadia moves on?

Steven Kobos, President and CEO

Wade, once a market has access to LNG, demand tends to grow. Jordan has had LNG access for a decade and has taken cargoes from the U.S. We would certainly welcome the opportunity to continue to be part of Jordan's energy solution. Markets that have access to LNG often seek additional volumes over time.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Zack Van Everen with TPH.

Zackery Van Everen, Analyst, TPH

Maybe just following up on some of the timelines. With the Acadia deal starting midyear and being a nine-month contract, and then you said once activity starts back up in Iraq it will be about six months. If the Iraq project were to start up again in June and be completed by the end of this year, could you use the Express or other flexibility to start that project? Or would you have to wait for the Acadia to complete its agreement in Jordan?

Steven Kobos, President and CEO

Zack, this is Steven. You raised this possibility on a prior earnings cycle, and it's a valid point. These are floating assets, and we routinely bridge with one asset to another. I can't speak to our exact plan here, but we intend to serve Iraq as soon as we can safely stand the project up. Our current public guidance remains that startup would be in 2027 given the uncertainties, and we will provide updates as conditions clarify.

Zackery Van Everen, Analyst, TPH

Got you. No, that's super helpful. And then maybe just a macro question. You mentioned the roughly 200 million tons coming online between now and 2030. I'm curious where you stand on the global demand side. You benefit from lower prices in price-sensitive markets. Do you have a view on the demand-supply mismatch coming into the end of the decade?

Steven Kobos, President and CEO

Zack, that's why we emphasize that the future of LNG is regasification. This is a supply disruption, not demand destruction. With portions of global LNG offline, pricing dislocations reflect supply shocks. Long-term contracted LNG remains affordable. I expect continued movement toward long-term contracted supply with geographic diversification. The supply wave justifies the company we've built with the balance sheet to integrate molecules, because customers will want quick, reliable access to regas capacity, and that is the market we serve.

Operator, Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Steven Kobos for closing remarks.

Steven Kobos, President and CEO

Thank you all for joining us today. As I just said, there is and will continue to be an enormous need for the growth of regas capacity around the world. That's why we know that the future of LNG is regasification and Excelerate is the global leader.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's call. We thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.