Earnings Call Transcript - EPC Q4 2023

Operator, Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Edgewell Personal Care Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chris Gough, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Chris Gough, Vice President of Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us this morning for Edgewell's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 earnings call. With me this morning are Rod Little, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Dan Sullivan, our Chief Financial Officer. Rod will kick off the call, then hand it over to Dan to discuss our results and full year fiscal 2024 outlook, before we transition to Q&A. This call is being recorded and will be available for replay via our website, www.edgewell.com. During the call, we may make statements about our expectations for future plans and performance. This might include future sales, earnings, advertising and promotional spending, product launches, savings and costs related to restructuring and repositioning actions, acquisitions and integrations, changes to our working capital metrics, currency fluctuations, commodity costs, category value, future plans for return of capital to shareholders, and more. Any such statements are forward-looking statements for the purposes of the safe harbor provisions under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, which reflect our current views with respect to future events, plans or prospects. These statements are based on assumptions and are subject to various risks and uncertainties, including those described under the caption Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended September 30, 2022, as may be amended in our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, which is on file with the SEC. These risks may cause our actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by our forward-looking statements. We do not assume any obligation to update or revise any of these forward-looking statements to reflect new events or circumstances except as required by law. During this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. The reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is shown in our press release issued earlier today, which is available at the Investor Relations section of our website. This non-GAAP information is provided as a supplement to, not as a substitute for, or as superior to measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. However, management believes these non-GAAP measures provide investors with valuable information on the underlying trends of our business. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Rod.

Rod Little, CEO

Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us on our fourth quarter and fiscal 2023 year-end earnings call. 2023 provides further evidence of progress in the transformation of our business, as evidenced by a stronger portfolio of brands, markedly better retail presence, and improved commercial activation and execution. In 2023, we delivered our third consecutive year of mid-single-digit organic net sales growth, once again outpacing our long-term algorithm. We remain disciplined in the face of rising macroeconomic challenges, accelerated our cost savings efforts, realized meaningful price gains across the business, and generated healthy cash flow. We continue to operate with both focus and urgency, all of which positions us for another year of top and bottom-line growth in fiscal 2024. For fiscal 2023, our organic growth was broad-based as we grew in all segments of the business and across both North America and international markets. Amidst a challenging macro environment, we again focused on controlling the controllables, further driving costs out of the business and investing with discipline, all of which underpin constant currency, adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA growth of 14% and 9% respectively. We generated $170 million in free cash flow enabling the continued investment in the business, supporting our capital allocation strategy and meaningful debt repayment. The fourth quarter played out as expected. The consumer remained resilient, and as we exit the fiscal year, our categories are largely healthy. Aggregate consumption across our US segment increased 5.5% in the quarter. Market share performance was solid, as we held share across the portfolio in the US, highlighted by gains in our women's systems, men's systems, and disposables businesses, while we held share in Sun Care. In the quarter, we delivered organic net sales growth in line with our expectations and adjusted earnings per share and adjusted EBITDA growth ahead of our outlook. Since the initiation of our growth strategy in November of 2020, our business has delivered consistent top-line growth fueled by a stronger portfolio of brands and underpinned by the strides we have made across brand building, product innovation, retail execution, and e-commerce activation. We have fundamentally reshaped our leadership team and organization. We strengthened our critical capabilities in areas like digital, brand building, and retail execution. Our focus on consumer-centric innovation, and new product development has improved, with the acquisition of the disruptive brand building capabilities of the Cremo and Ville teams. And more recently in international markets, we are realizing the benefits from our revised simplified go-to-market approach, with better capabilities and execution. Overall, we exit fiscal 2023, with a stronger, more capable team that is better equipped to drive the next phase of our transformation. Over that same three-year time horizon, organic net sales growth has been driven by a healthy combination of growth from both unit volume and price. Importantly, the composition of our growth has been consistent with our long-term profile, as we benefit from the portfolio shift towards higher growth categories. Our right to win businesses, which include Sun Care, Grooming, and Skin Care have increased organic net sales by double digits on a three-year CAGR basis, with those businesses now approaching one-third of total company sales compared to just 25% of sales when we launched the strategy three years ago. And we've also made good progress with our right to play portfolio taking a historically declining subset of our business in Shave and Sun care and delivering organic net sales growth of over 1% on a three-year CAGR. These results and the progress we've made since outlining our long-term vision and growth goals in 2020 demonstrate that our strategy is working. And though our transformation is not complete, we believe we are firmly on the right trajectory and have confidence that we can continue to drive sustained growth and lasting value creation. Before moving to our outlook for 2024, I'd like to thank our teams across the globe for their dedication, and for their continued focus on delighting our consumers and executing our strategy over the past three years. This has been an incredibly difficult period to deliver on a transformation, as we face significant macroeconomic challenges including a global pandemic, supply chain disruption, and unprecedented levels of cost inflation, currency headwinds, and more. Despite this, our team's focus and resilience has put us in the improved position we are in today. Now, I'd like to turn to the new fiscal year and provide some insight into our plans, and then Dan will take you through the detailed assumptions. Our outlook for fiscal 2024 calls for further top and bottom-line growth, reflecting four core drivers: first, continued organic sales growth. Our outlook is for organic net sales growth in the range of plus 2% to plus 4%, with growth again expected across both North America and international markets driven by a mix of higher volumes and price and revenue management; second, further gross margin accretion, driven by our productivity initiatives and further price and revenue management, which is expected to more than offset continued cost of goods inflation and currency headwinds. Third, we plan to increase investment in our brands and organization capabilities, with advertising and promotion spending expected to increase in a disciplined and prioritized cadence, growing both in dollars and as a rate of sale. We plan to prioritize our incremental investments across critical brand initiatives including supporting the Billie brands, moving into adjacent body categories, compelling innovation in Sun Care, and the re-platforming of our Fem Care master brand strategy. Lastly, we anticipate improved operating margin driven by gross margin expansion and improved SG&A as a rate of sale, which will benefit from operational leverage as we improve efficiency across the organization. This outlook calls for strong earnings growth, substantial free cash flow generation, a disciplined approach to capital allocation, and continued deleveraging of the business. We are confident we can deliver on this outlook given our improved go-to-market position across our portfolio of brands and the markets in which we operate, creating what we believe is a very compelling value proposition for shareholders. Now, I'd like to ask Dan to take you through our fourth quarter and full year results and also provide some additional detail on our outlook for fiscal 2024.

Dan Sullivan, CFO

Thank you, Rod. Good morning everyone. As you just heard, we're pleased with both our financial and operational performance in the quarter and for the full year. While there's always more to do, the fundamental improvements we've made across the business are delivering the expected results, and give us confidence that the strategic choices we've made are driving the desired outcomes. While consumer demand was reasonably healthy for the year, the broader macro environment was challenging, further pressuring financial results and requiring both urgency and agility. In 2023, our business model absorbed approximately $125 million in incremental pre-tax headwinds from COGS inflation, currency movements, and higher interest expense, and we responded by realizing significant productivity savings, executing price actions across the portfolio, driving mid-single-digit organic sales growth, and achieving a threefold increase in free cash flow generation, all of which underpinned constant currency EPS growth of 14%. We're proud of this operational performance in a very difficult macro environment. Now let me turn to the detailed results for the quarter and the fiscal year. Organic net sales decreased 1.9% in Q4 with fairly consistent percentage declines in both North America and international markets. The results were as we expected, reflecting three specific transitory items previously referenced. First, the planned inventory buydown at wholesale in our Wet Shave business in Japan, which alone had an approximate 2.5-point impact on total company organic sales in the quarter; second, the negative effect of weather across the peak of the U.S. Suns; and lastly, cycling the spike in demand in Q4 last year in fem care as retailer inventory levels normalized after a period of supply disruption. We continue to see the benefit from higher pricing in the quarter, though that was more than offset by a mid-single-digit decline in volumes largely due to the items just mentioned. Wet Shave organic net sales were down 2.3% with North America essentially flat while international declined approximately 4%, which was largely a result of the inventory buydown in Japan completed in the fourth quarter. In the U.S., the razors and blades category, consumption was up 1.8% in the quarter, and our market share in aggregate increased 60 basis points with meaningful gains in our Women's Systems portfolio led by continued strong Billie share performance. The brand continues to gain share as it expands in retail and has now reached about 10 share of the category. Despite the heightened competitive environment on shelf, our volume share gains of 330 basis points were above trend. We also saw modest share gains in our men's systems and disposable businesses in the quarter, a marked improvement in trends. Sun and Skin Care organic net sales increased 1.1% as strong growth in grooming, Wet Ones, and double-digit growth in international Sun Care were partly offset by declines in North America Sun Care of about 14%. In the U.S., the declines were largely as expected and were a result of poor weather conditions earlier in the season, which led to lower retail replenishment orders, particularly at Walmart. International Sun Care sales increased nearly 12%, despite cycling over 60% growth last year driven by both price and volume gains as we continue to see strong growth in Latin America. In the U.S., Sun Care category consumption was up approximately 11%, rebounding from the sluggish results last quarter. Importantly, our Sun Care portfolio maintained market share in the quarter, and Banana Boat retained its number one share position. Grooming organic net sales increased about 10% led by Cremo growth in North America and Bodo growth internationally. Wet Ones organic net sales grew over 8%, and our share was approximately 80%. Fem Care organic net sales were down 5.5% for the quarter as mid-single-digit price gains were offset by lower volumes. The category continues to cycle through last year's spikes in demand and the resulting out of stocks on shelf. We exited the year in a better position in terms of supply and demand and inventory levels on shelf. For the year, consumption in the category was up just under 5%, and our share of the market was essentially flat. Now moving down the P&L. Gross margin on an adjusted basis increased 135 basis points, or 225 basis points at constant currency. In the quarter, earnings from price execution fully offset persistent yet easing COGS inflation. Approximately 300 basis points of price gains and 265 basis points of productivity savings helped to offset a 225-basis point headwind from inflationary pressures and a 115 basis point impact from negative category end market mix and other items. A&P expenses were 7.5% of net sales and broadly in line with the prior year. Adjusted SG&A increased 260 basis points in rate of sale versus last year, as higher incentive compensation and people-related costs and the impact of unfavorable currency movements were only partially offset by savings realized from ongoing operational efficiency programs. Adjusted operating income was $60.8 million compared to $66.6 million last year. GAAP diluted net earnings per share were $0.57 compared to $0.64 in the fourth quarter of fiscal '22, and adjusted earnings per share were $0.72 compared to $0.79 in the prior year period, including an estimated $0.09 impact from unfavorable currency. Adjusted EBITDA was $83.8 million compared to $94.7 million in the prior year inclusive of an estimated $6 million unfavorable impact from currency. Cash flow generation was strong in the quarter, and net cash from operating activities for the full year ended September 30 more than doubled to $216 million compared to $102 million in the prior year. We ended the quarter with $216 million in cash on hand, access to the $297 million undrawn portion of our credit facility, and a net debt leverage ratio of 3.4 times. In the quarter, share repurchases totaled $30 million. We continued our quarterly dividend payout and declared another cash dividend of $0.15 per share for the fourth quarter. In total, we returned nearly $38 million to shareholders during the quarter and $107 million for the full year. Now let me turn briefly to our full year results. Organic net sales for the year increased 4.3%. Our right to win portfolio grew almost 11%, fueled by 12% growth in Sun Care driven by both international and North America markets, while our Grooming brands grew just over 9% for the year. Our right-to-play portfolio delivered its third consecutive year of organic sales growth, growing at about 2%. From a geographic perspective, organic net sales increased in North America by 3%, driven by increased pricing, while international markets grew over 6%, realizing both volume and price gains. Importantly, our in-market performance was again solid, and value market share across key global markets remained stable in fiscal '23. In the US, aggregate market share declined about 40 basis points, primarily reflective of the expected decline in Sun Care as competitive products returned to shelf following last year's product recalls. Our aggregate market share on a volume basis increased 80 basis points for the year. Importantly, our market share performance in the US improved as the year progressed, and as mentioned, we held share in aggregate in the fourth quarter. In international markets, share results were also stable, with strong performance in key markets such as Germany, where we saw healthy share gains across the full shave portfolio of men's, women's, and disposables. Our Sun Care portfolio performed well outside of the US also, led by share gains in Canada and Germany and meaningful consumption growth in Mexico and Australia. Adjusted gross margin rate decreased 20 basis points year-on-year, positive pricing of just over 300 basis points and productivity savings of 230 basis points were more than offset by 400 basis points of higher COGS inflation, a 100 basis points of unfavorable currency, and 55 basis points of negative mix. On a constant currency basis, adjusted gross margin expanded 80 basis points year-on-year. A&P expense was 10.2% as a rate of sale as we continued to invest behind our brands. A&P spend levels were below the prior year in part due to a reduction in activation costs for Sun Care related to the lower replenishment orders late in the season. Adjusted operating profit increased $13 million or 6% and operating margin for the year was 10.8%, up 20 basis points in rate of sale and inclusive of a $27 million unfavorable impact from currency. On a constant currency basis, OP margin increased 130 basis points year-on-year. Now turning to our outlook for fiscal 2024. As we enter year four of our transformation, we're increasingly confident in our ability to deliver sustainable top-line growth, continued gross margin accretion, and further profit growth. While inflation is easing, it will remain a headwind in 2024, as will foreign currency given the expected strong dollar. In this challenging and somewhat increasingly uncertain environment, we will continue to focus on the fundamentals and manage the aspects of the business that are directly in our control. For the fiscal year, we anticipate organic net sales growth to be in the range of 2% to 4% with similar growth rates in half one and half two. Growth is expected to come from both price and volume, although this will vary by geography and segment. We anticipate reported net sales to be up 1% to 3% inclusive of about 60 basis points of currency headwinds. As we look to adjusted gross margin, we anticipate about 80 basis points of year-over-year rate accretion or 100 basis points at constant currency. However, we expect gross margin to decline approximately 160 basis points in the first quarter due to the timing of the release of unit cost inflation currently trapped in inventory, as well as the result of unfavorable absorption impacts compared to the prior year, as a result of our decision to structurally reduce inventory levels in 2024 after a prolonged period of inventory build coming out of the pandemic. We expect approximately 200 basis points of productivity and 100 basis points of price gains to more than offset approximately 130 basis points of COGS inflation, a 50 basis points impact from the unfavorable absorption, 20 basis points of negative mix, and 20 basis points of unfavorable currency. We remain committed to investing in our brands through A&P to support our growth outlook, with A&P expected to increase in both dollars and rate of sale to approximately 11%. Adjusted operating profit margin is expected to increase approximately 50 basis points inclusive of about 10 basis points of unfavorable FX, though we expect significant operating margin rate contraction in the first quarter. Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $2.65 to $2.85 inclusive of approximately $0.20 per share of currency headwinds, an increase of over 7% at the midpoint of the range or 15% in constant currency. The EPS outlook reflects the impact of share repurchases of approximately $50 million and an assumed effective tax rate of 22%. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $340 million to $352 million, inclusive of an estimated $14 million currency headwinds. On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA growth at the midpoint of the range is expected to be approximately 6%. In terms of phasing, we expect organic net sales growth in half one to be largely consistent with half two and that we will generate about 70% of our full year adjusted EPS in half two of the fiscal year, with Q1 adjusted EPS meaningfully below prior year. Finally, free cash flow for the year is expected to be approximately $170 million. For more information related to our fiscal 2024 outlook, I would refer you to the press release. Now I'd like to return the call to the operator for the Q&A session.

Operator, Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Peter Grom of UBS. Please go ahead.

Bryan Adams, Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys. This is Bryan Adams on for Peter Grom. Thanks for taking the question. So just on the 2% to 4% organic range for 2024. I'm curious as we stand today, what you guys see as the biggest flex point looking out to next year? Is it the consumer, store outcomes, or something else? Thanks.

Dan Sullivan, CFO

Good morning, Bryan. We don't have complete visibility on shelf outcomes yet; we're currently in that cycle. For instance, I was with a leading retailer yesterday discussing our plans for the upcoming year. I don't think product-related issues at shelf outcomes will be a significant factor. I expect our distribution to remain similar to this year, with some adjustments, perhaps slightly improved in certain areas; that’s how we see it. This is already included in our plan. In the fourth quarter, consumer categories have shown health consistent with the past 52-week trend. The consumer has been resilient, and our categories are in good shape. We anticipate this continues. However, if the consumer faces challenges, we may trend toward the lower end of our guidance range. We're not preparing for that at the midpoint and three, but it is a possibility, maybe even likely, depending on economic outlooks. Thus, consumer health could add variability to our growth projections. I think this observation is more relevant to the US; outside the US, consumers in our categories appear to be relatively healthier, as we are still witnessing some recovery in various international markets.

Chris Gough, Vice President of Investor Relations

And Bryan, the only thing I would add just maybe to answer the question the other way, we said in the remarks we expect about three points at the midpoint of organic growth. You can kind of think about that the way we've modeled it is two-thirds of that through price and one-third through volume. Within the price piece, I would say that about half of that is carryover price and about half of that is new, which we have a really good line of sight to and feel really good about execution. So if you kind of think about organic through the lens of price and volume, what we've modeled and contemplated around price has a high degree of confidence in it on our side.

Bryan Adams, Analyst

Okay. Awesome. Thank you both. And then one more quick one on A&P if you don't mind. I think this time last year you guys were expecting A&P for 2023 to come in at around 11.6% for the year. Obviously, it came in lower. I know you mentioned some lower activation costs in Sun Care here with the lower replenishment orders. But now we're expecting 11% for 2024. So I'm just curious what's kind of changed in the way you guys are thinking about that level of A&P here?

Dan Sullivan, CFO

Yes. Look, I think in principle I know A&P as a topic gets a lot of attention as it should. Our stance is pretty consistent, Bryan. We're going to remain very disciplined in our approach to where we allocate dollars and what we place bets behind. And we're going to continue to be return-driven. So said another way, where we feel like there's a high degree of execution and opportunity, and where we feel like we can get really good returns, we're going to do that, right? And that's going to obviously sort of weight differently by quarter, by brand, by segment, by geography. As we look forward, I think you're seeing a couple of things happening. We are getting much better at efficiency of spend, predominantly digital activation, much better clarity for us around where to deploy the next dollar and what returns it will generate. We're getting far more productive spend: less non-working dollars, more working dollars, and so we're able to bifurcate within our thinking what are we investing behind on a structural level day-to-day brand support retail activation and what big bets are we placing. In 2024 we've got a pretty good line of sight around three initiatives that are getting significant spend which is around the work in our fem care business to re-platform the portfolio behind Carefree, exciting innovation in Sun, and Billie making its play into the body category if you will on a retail pilot. So we do feel like there's ample support behind the core of the business now that we are a healthier portfolio and adequate spend behind big commercial bets and activation.

Bryan Adams, Analyst

Awesome. Really helpful, guys. I will pass it on.

Chris Gough, Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, Dan. Operator, next question, please.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Susan Anderson from Canaccord. Please go ahead.

Susan Anderson, Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I had a quick question on the gross margin for the first quarter. I guess how much of the decline is to clear through the excess inventory? And I guess what categories is that mainly in versus a higher-cost product that's in the inventory base currently? And then also, do you still have productivity savings flowing through in gross margin for this year?

Dan Sullivan, CFO

Yes. Good morning, Susan. It's Dan. So I'll take them in reverse order. Yes, on the productivity savings we are contemplating another year of meaningful savings. We've estimated it at about 200 basis points for the year, fairly consistent quarter-over-quarter. So, the answer there is yes. On the margin profile and I'm just going to ladder up for a minute because I think it's important to capture all of the elements and then I'll speak to Q1. We continue to see and have a really good line of sight to the structural elements of margin. In other words, inflationary concerns and pressures which are absolutely easing, but we are not yet net-net deflationary. So, there are still headwinds in 2024. We've sized that at about 130 basis points. FX headwinds will continue although moderate versus 2023 levels. And then the offsets around pricing and productivity. Pricing we estimate about 100 basis points of further tailwinds and then the productivity as I mentioned 200. So, really good line of sight to that. I think if you look back at 2023 and what we said a year ago, we're pretty close to the mark on all of those elements. So, we feel confident that structural margin improvement is happening and therefore margin accretion is realistic. To your question on Q1, you've got two different headwinds that disproportionately are affecting Q1, hence the margin step back. One you mentioned which is costs that are tied up in inventory that still need to pull through that still carry what I'll call excessive inflation with them. Sun Care would be a great example of that, right? If you think about the Rising Sun Chemicals, which was double-digits for most of the year last year, and then you think about the fourth quarter where we didn't ship what we would have expected to ship, you've got a higher inventory level in Sun with disproportionately higher inflation trapped there that needs to come out. The second item though is around absorption. And we've called this out just to be transparent and give everyone the puts and takes. We are estimating about a 50 basis point full-year headwind around absorption, and that's really related to our decision to structurally reduce inventory levels. We will take just over 10 days of inventory out, but that's disproportionately felt where we manufacture Shave and Sun, and we expect that to happen largely in the first quarter. So, you've got the step back in margin. You've got the trailing effect of the high inflation items trapped in inventory, and you've got the structural decision to take days out with an absorption hit in the first quarter.

Susan Anderson, Analyst

Okay, great. That’s really helpful. And then just really quick at retail I guess on the Sun category. I think it ended up being a little bit better at retail. So, do you guys feel like the inventory did you end the quarter in a much better position than when you started? Or is there still some to clear through there? And then also just on the Fem Care side, if I understood it right, it sounds like maybe a little bit too much inventory there also at retail. Was that a category because I know there were obviously some supply chain issues. Did the retailers kind of restock too much and now just kind of need to level that out?

Dan Sullivan, CFO

I'll start with the Sun Care point. You're right. The category performed well in the fourth quarter, up 11%. The favorable weather across most of the US contributed to this uptick in consumption. We did notice lower replenishment orders during the quarter, primarily in discussions with Walmart. However, Walmart did well in the Sun Care category. We lost market share at Walmart during the quarter, yet maintained our share in total retail for Q4. This shows that we were well positioned on shelves with adequate inventory, and the consumer responded positively. In terms of total inventory levels, we feel confident as we exit the year in a strong position heading into next year's sun season, without any anticipated overhang. Regarding Fem Care, it's a fair assessment. There was a slight reduction in shelf inventory, particularly around Playtech sport. However, I believe we entered the year in a better inventory position compared to last year, despite ongoing adjustments related to supply and demand fluctuations in the broader category.

Susan Anderson, Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks so much for all the details. Good luck for the rest of the year.

Dan Sullivan, CFO

Thank you.

Rod Little, CEO

Thank you, Susan. Operator, next question, please.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities. Please go ahead.

Chris Carey, Analyst

Hi, good morning guys. So, just on this inventory dynamic. Can you just maybe help us understand volume cadence through the year confidence around volumes? And then, how much is dependent on better sell-through such that you can get back to shipping in line with consumption gas? Just any sort of help on volume assumptions. And how we should be thinking about selling or sell-through which is typically I think what comes to mind when we hear inventory corrections and these sorts of things.

Rod Little, CEO

Good morning, Chris. We do not have an inventory issue either at retail or within our own system. We ended fiscal 2023 in a strong position. We've taken significant steps in fiscal 2023 to address the situation, especially in Japan, where we optimized the inventory with wholesalers and retailers. This had a significant positive effect, leading to three points of growth in our fourth quarter that was not part of our original guidance. We also made other adjustments globally. Overall, from an inventory standpoint, we are clean and in good shape across all categories and countries, and we do not foresee any inventory issues as we enter 2024. Looking at volumes, in fiscal 2023, we achieved a 4% growth, with roughly 500 basis points from pricing and a 100 basis point decline in volume. As we look ahead to 2024, as Dan mentioned in our mid-point projection for organic net sales growth, we foresee about 100 basis points coming from volume and 200 basis points arising from a mix of pricing and revenue management strategies. This indicates a 200 basis point increase in unit volume. It will vary by category and country, but generally, with less pricing pressure compared to last year, we expect some volume recovery. We are optimistic about our forward-looking 3% growth and how it will materialize. Dan, do you have anything to add?

Dan Sullivan, CFO

Certainly. I want to add a couple of things regarding our volume outlook. There are two main drivers to consider. First, we anticipate growth in organic volume, driven by exciting new products in our brand portfolio. This includes innovations in the Sun category, the launch of the Carefree master brand, and the Billie brand moving into new distribution channels beyond Shave. These areas are expected to contribute to volume growth. The second piece relates to what Rod mentioned regarding Japan in the fourth quarter, where we decided to reduce distributor inventory. Combining these factors suggests we can expect about a percentage point of organic growth from volume. Throughout the year, the trends remain consistent, except for the fourth quarter when we expect increased volume growth year-over-year due to our Japan situation. Additionally, I want to clarify that we are talking about both inventory levels on shelves and our overall enterprise inventory. We plan to reduce inventory in the system next year, now that we are moving past the COVID disruptions and supply chain challenges. We believe we can maintain high service levels while reducing costs and inventory. We aim to achieve a reduction of about 10 days in inventory, which is separate from Rod's comments about retail shelf inventory levels that have normalized. I hope this provides some clarity.

Chris Carey, Analyst

That is helpful. One follow-up would be, I believe you said that you're expecting SG&A leverage in fiscal 2024, so SG&A as a percentage of sales down year-over-year. You had mid-single-digit growth in fiscal 2023 and it was up. Is the volume leverage a key component of that? Or are there other factors that you have in your control, like savings or other initiatives that are giving that confidence? Thanks.

Rod Little, CEO

Yeah. So good question on G&A because I think there's been some math challenges here. I think total G&A for the year 2024 on a dollar basis, Chris, we're profiling basically flat dollars. And the way that we get there is factoring in all of the inflationary challenges, continued merit increases, and everything that comes with that, being offset dollar for dollar by structural cost reduction, part of our continued efforts to become more productive and more efficient. We feel pretty good about that. The work has been done. We have a line of sight to the savings. We're actually executing many of these steps this week. So you've got a model that says inflation is getting offset dollar-for-dollar by structural cost reduction. Then along comes the growth profile, and there’s your leverage. The one thing I would also call out is, if you want to get what we think is a good proxy for quarterly G&A levels, I would look to Q2, Q3 of last year $102 million, $103 million as a really good proxy. We will see a step-up in Q1 this year against last year mostly because we're cycling some good guys that hit in 2023 related to changes in compensation and benefits. And as we disclosed, we had a step-up in Q4 of 2023 mostly related to higher incentive costs. So there's some choppiness by quarter, but I think flat year-over-year is what we see Q2, Q3 levels being the proxy for each of the quarters in 2024 is what we see.

Dan Sullivan, CFO

I want to expand on the SG&A discussion because you raise an important point about leverage and its integration. We're noticing positive leverage as we progress, which is encouraging. However, as we assess SG&A more thoroughly, we recognize the necessity of managing what we can, and SG&A is certainly within our control. We're committed to being strategic and efficient in how we plan our spending for next year. Additionally, we have numerous opportunities to enhance the effectiveness of our operations as we lower costs. For instance, we are removing layers present in our current structure. Previously, we had an international layer separating our global leadership team from local markets, and we have effectively removed that. Consequently, we have improved leadership quality and established a direct connection, making processes quicker and simpler with fewer handoffs, ultimately yielding better results. The growth rates we observe in our international markets are a direct result of this adjustment. Similarly, regarding innovation, we historically had a global structure that developed innovations and relayed them to local markets. The process from consumer insights to product offerings has been long, with excessive handoffs. By reducing these handoffs and streamlining the innovation process, we achieve cost efficiency, improved speed, and ultimately deliver products that resonate better with consumers. Our historical structure provides us the chance for cost savings while simultaneously achieving better sales outcomes.

Chris Carey, Analyst

That's comprehensive, and thank you very much.

Chris Gough, Vice President of Investor Relations

Thanks, Chris. Operator, next question, please.

Operator, Operator

With no further questions, this will conclude our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Rod Little for any closing remarks.

Rod Little, CEO

Yes. Thank you, everybody for your time. We look forward to the year ahead and delivering another year at or above algorithm growth rates. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.