Earnings Call Transcript
EPR PROPERTIES (EPR)
Earnings Call Transcript - EPR Q4 2022
Operator, Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Quarter 4 EPR Properties Earnings Conference Call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Brian Moriarty. Please go ahead.
Brian Moriarty, Moderator
Thank you, Chris. Thanks for joining us today for our fourth quarter and year-end 2022 earnings call and webcast. Participants on today's call are Greg Silvers, Chairman and CEO; and Greg Zimmerman, Executive Vice President and CIO; and Mark Peterson, Executive Vice President and CFO. We'll start the call by informing you that this call may include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995, identified by such words as will be, intend, continue, believe, may, expect, hope, anticipate or other comparable terms. The company's actual financial condition and the results of operations may vary materially from those contemplated by such forward-looking statements. Discussion of those factors that could cause results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements are contained in the company's SEC filings, including the company's reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q. Additionally, this call will contain references to certain non-GAAP measures which we believe are useful in evaluating the company's performance. A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release and supplemental information furnished to the SEC under Form 8-K. If you wish to follow along, today's earnings release, supplemental and earnings call presentation are available on the Investor Center page of the company's website, www.eprkc.com. Now I'll turn the call over to Greg Silvers.
Greg Silvers, CEO
Thank you, Brian. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's fourth quarter and year-end 2022 earnings call and webcast. For the full year, we delivered 52% per share growth in FFO as adjusted, demonstrating our continuing recovery and the resilience of our experiential investments. This resilience is also reflected in our improving theater rent coverage levels and the continued strength of our non-theater rent coverage. Even against the backdrop of recession fears, the consumer continues to support our affordable drive to experiential properties. We are also pleased that in the fourth quarter and through February 2023, we have received all scheduled rent and deferral payments from Regal as we are working through the process toward a resolution. Our tenant industries continue to demonstrate healthy momentum. This is particularly evident at the box office, which was up by more than 64% in 2022. Sustained wide release content continues to be the key ingredient for success as the number of wide release films have grown, ticket sales have grown and major studios have reasserted their focus on theatrical releases. During the year, we also resumed our investment spending, deploying capital in a disciplined manner across a variety of experiential properties. After pausing our investment spending for nearly 2 years during the pandemic, our efforts in 2022 validate our ability to identify, underwrite and close quality transactions in the experiential space. For the year, we closed transactions valued at over $600 million with over $400 million being deployed in 2022 and the balance being deployed in 2023 and 2024. We are able to fund these commitments without raising additional capital and the average cap rate on these investments was over 8%. As we've stated in the past, the vast majority of our investments come through our network of tenants and partners. Our depth and breadth of knowledge in the experiential real estate investing is unmatched among REITs. In 2022, this was evidenced by our expansion in the burgeoning areas of fitness and wellness, such as the community of climbing gyms, new wellness opportunities and the time-tested experience of natural hot spring spas and our new partnership with Colorado-based Gravity House. In 2023, we expect to continue expanding our experiential portfolio with select investments in properties consistent with our growth strategy. Our growth pipeline remains robust as new and existing concepts and clients continue to grow to meet the demands of their experience-focused customers. Our challenge remains not one of opportunity rather that our cost of capital has not recovered as quickly as our properties. We will, however, remain steadfast in our disciplined approach, focusing on the highest quality and the best risk-to-reward investments. At this time, we aren't providing earnings guidance due to the uncertainty of Regal's bankruptcy proceeding. However, we remain confident in our outlook and are maintaining our well-covered monthly dividend to common shareholders at its current level. While we still have work to do to regain our full momentum, we are heartened by our significant progress, and we remain resolute and confident in the quality of our properties. Lastly, I'm pleased to welcome John Case to our Board of Trustees. John brings a wealth of knowledge and experience in net lease real estate, and we are excited to benefit from his expertise as we continue to grow and expand our portfolio of experiential assets. Now I'll turn the call over to Greg Zimmerman, who will cover our business in greater detail.
Greg Zimmerman, CIO
Thanks, Greg. At year-end, our total investments were approximately $6.7 billion, with 363 properties in service and 97% leased. During the quarter, our investment spending was $81.2 million, bringing the total investment spending for 2022 to $402.5 million. 100% of the spending was in our experiential portfolio, and included the acquisition of a project for redevelopment and additional financing for an existing asset. Our experiential portfolio comprises 289 properties, with 49 operators and accounts for 92% of our total investments or approximately $6.2 billion, and at the end of the quarter was 97% occupied. Our education portfolio comprises 74 properties with 8 operators, and at the end of the quarter, was 100% occupied. Our value-oriented drive-to destinations provide a compelling value proposition for families. To date, we have not seen meaningful impact on our operators from inflation, and we remain confident they will continue to prove resilient. Turning to coverage. The most recent data provided is based on a September trailing 12-month period. Overall portfolio coverage for the trailing 12 months continues to be strong at 2x. Trailing 12-month coverage for theaters is 1.4x with box office at $7.7 billion for the same period. Trailing 12-month coverage for the non-theater portion of our portfolio is 2.7x. Now I'll update you on the operating status of our tenants. Q4 total box office was $1.8 billion. Total North American box office for 2022 was $7.4 billion compared to $4.5 billion in 2021. Our high-quality theater portfolio continues to outperform the industry. When strong pictures are available theatrically, the public is responding very favorably and the results prove it out. Three films released after the pandemic are among the top 9 highest grossing North American box office films of all time: Spider-Man No Way Home is #3 at $814 million. Top Gun Maverick is #5 at $719 million. And Avatar: The Way of Water, which opened on December 16, and is #9 at $658 million to date. We are eagerly anticipating the 2023 slate. The top 5 announced titles, each of which could exceed $200 million in North American box office are Ant Man and The Wasp: Quantumania, which opened February 17 and generated $120 million in domestic box office over the President's Day holiday weekend. Guardians of the Galaxy 3, Little Mermaid, Captain Marvel 2 and Aquaman 2. As a recovering box office demonstrates, when there are movies to see, consumers of all ages are returning to the theater. They still want to see good films on the big screen. Studios recognize the economic benefit of the theatrical run and have increased production and refocused on theatrical exhibition post-COVID. We remain confident that the supply of films for theatrical release will continue to grow. As previously disclosed, on September 7, 2022, Cineworld filed for bankruptcy protection in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas. We have received our entire October, November, December, January and February rent payments, along with the deferred rent payments due in those months, and we have also received court ordered September stubborn payments in December, January and February. Because the bankruptcy process is ongoing, beyond those updates, we will not comment about Cineworld. Turning now to an update on our other major customer groups. We continue to see good results and ongoing consumer demand across all segments of our drive-to value-oriented destinations. Our Eat & Play assets continued their strong post-pandemic performance with portfolio revenue for 2022 up 13% and EBITDARM up 12% over 2021. Many of our attractions and cultural portfolio had increased revenue and attendance in 2022 versus the prior year. Primarily because of increased labor costs, several assets had lower EBITDARM, but performance remained strong. We are particularly pleased with the performance of Santa Monica and the City Museum in St. Louis. Both continued their post-COVID upward momentum. Revenue and attendance exceeded our expectations and projections at our 2 Canadian parks, and Calypso Water Park. The hotel opened for the season on January 4 and will close on March 18. Both Titanic museums had record years for attendance, revenue and EBITDARM and were under construction to add the Titanic Chocolate shop in Pigeon Forge. We continue to see strong occupancy and ADR growth at the Springs Resort. We anticipate commencing construction in Q2 for both the expansion of the springs and the redevelopment of the conference center into a natural hot springs resort. In our fitness portfolio, membership has exceeded pre-pandemic numbers with revenue continuing to grow year-over-year. Midway through the 2022-'23 season, performance across our ski portfolio is strong. Q4 revenue was up significantly from Q4 2021. Visits are up, resorts are returning to normal staffing levels from both services, including F&B outlets, some of which were closed intermittently in the 2021-2022 season. Good early season snowfall helped Northstar. And while snowfall in the East wasn't quite as strong, performance has still been favorable. Room renovations are underway at Resort in Alaska, which will further strengthen the leading Four Season resort in Alaska. Our Margaritaville Hotel Nashville, adjacent to all of Nashville's famous downtown destinations, had an excellent 2022 with significant increases in all metrics. Now that renovations at both the Beachcomber and Bellwether resorts in St. Petersburg are complete, we're seeing stronger ADR and RevPAR numbers. As of January 1, we rebranded our Cajun Palms RV Resort to Camp Margaritaville Brow Bridge to go along with our very successful Camp Margaritaville RV Resort and Lodge in Pigeon Forge. Our education portfolio continues to perform well with year-over-year increases across the portfolio through Q3 of 13% in revenue, 8% in EBITDARM and 3% in enrollment. As noted on our last quarter call, during Q4, KinderCare acquired Creme De La Creme, which we view as a credit enhancement. During Q4, we received $7 million as a participation payment in connection with the sale of Creme De La Creme. We anticipate that KinderCare will execute a preexisting lease termination right in Q2 for 5 early education properties representing $2.8 million in annual contractual rent. We have plans to sell all 5 properties and redeploy the proceeds in experiential assets. The remaining KinderCare leases contain contractual rent adjustment effective January 1, 2024, based on performance, which we anticipate will partially offset the anticipated rent reduction based on terminations. Turning to a quick update on capital recycling. During the quarter, we sold a vacant theater for net proceeds of $1 million and recognized a gain of $300,000. We continue discussions with multiple parties on our 2 remaining vacant theaters. During Q4, our investment spending was $81.2 million. On our Q3 call, we noted that in early Q4, we closed on a commitment with a new partner to provide up to $68 million in long-term mortgage financing for the expansion of an existing project, but we couldn't give details pending our customers' public announcement. Now we can. The investment will fund the addition of an indoor water park at the Bavarian Inn Lodge in Frankenmuth, Michigan. Located 1.5 hours from Detroit, Frankenmuth is Michigan's little Bavaria. With 3 million annual visitors, it's one of Michigan's leading tourist attractions known for its annual October Fest, the world's largest Christmas store and many other popular events and festivals. Travel and Leisure recently named Frankenmuth one of the top 20 most beautiful winter towns in America. The Zender family has operated the Bavarian Inn Lodge for nearly 40 years, and we are very excited to participate with the family to expand this iconic property. In addition, in a new partnership we funded $56.8 million of an approximately $64.5 million commitment for mortgage financing secured by 6 fitness and wellness properties operated by Gravity House, in Breckenridge, Aspen, Vail, Steamboat Springs, Winter Park. We've also entered into a relationship agreement to finance future growth. Gravity House is a cutting-edge club model concept providing fitness, wellness, dining and lodging in outstanding experiential locations. Condé Nast Traveler recently named Gravity House Breckenridge the 10th best hotel in the Southwest. We're delighted to partner with Gravity House. Both these new relationships demonstrate our industry-leading ability to source and curate unique experiential opportunities. Finally, in our continuing partnership with Northgate Resorts, we acquired Jellystone Cosy Rest in Harrisville, Pennsylvania, near Pittsburgh, with a plan to expand and renovate the asset. EPR's interest is 62%. Our portion of the purchase price was $6.5 million, and our portion of the debt for expansion and renovation is expected to be around $13.9 million. This brings our RV resort investments to 4 as we build out this stable experiential lodging asset class. Cap rates for 2022 exceeded 8% and continued to be in that range in 2023, which should create compelling long-term value. As I mentioned, our total investment spending for 2022 was $402.5 million, entirely in our experiential portfolio. A number of these transactions will be funded through 2023 and 2024, so the total value of transactions closed in 2022 was over $600 million. We're extremely pleased with the quality and breadth of our experiential diversity we achieved in 2022. This was all driven by the hard work of our investments and underwriting team, leveraging our unmatched network of tenants and partners. We added one-of-a-kind properties, including villages, the Calypso Waterpark in Canada and the Bavarian Inn in Frankenmuth. We developed a new relationship with Gravity House, a cutting-edge operator with 6 well-located assets. We broke ground on a new property in densely populated King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, and opened a top golf in the dominant Ontario, California market. We strengthened our Springs Resort in Pagosa Springs and invested in the acquisition and redevelopment of a conference center in Murrieta, California, into a brand-new natural hot springs resort in a densely populated market proximate to both Los Angeles and San Diego. We acquired a movement climbing yoga fitness location in Lincoln Park in Chicago, and we added to our investment in Alyeska Resort, Alaska's premier Four Season resort. We're issuing investment spending guidance for funds to be deployed in 2023 in a range of $200 million to $300 million. Through the end of 2022, we committed approximately $250 million for experiential development and redevelopment projects that have closed but are not yet funded to be deployed over the next 2 years. We anticipate approximately $175 million of that $250 million will be deployed in 2023, and that is the amount included at the midpoint of our 2023 guidance range. In almost all of our experiential categories, we continue to see high-quality opportunities for both acquisition and build-to-suit redevelopment and expansion. We have a robust pipeline with new and existing customers and concepts. Given the current backdrop, we are exercising discipline and have consciously decided to reduce our near-term investment spending and to fund those investments primarily from cash on hand, cash from operations and with our borrowing ability under our unsecured revolving credit facility. As Greg noted, we are limited by the recovery of our cost of capital, not by opportunity. We are being more judicious with future investments with our disciplined approach to acquisitions to shepherd capital until economic conditions improve and our cost of capital returns to historical levels. Our focus on development and redevelopment investments in 2022 will lead to increased revenue in 2023 and 2024 as these investments fully come online. I now turn it over to Mark for a discussion of the financials.
Mark Peterson, CFO
Thank you, Greg. Today, I will discuss our strong financial performance for the quarter and provide an update on our balance sheet. FFOs adjusted for the quarter was $1.25 versus $1.08 in the prior year, and AFFO for the quarter was $1.27 per share compared to $1.11 in the prior year. Before getting into the details, at a high level, our results for the quarter significantly exceeded the midpoint of our guidance due to the following: first, additional rent and deferral collections from Regal; second, additional deferral collections from non-Regal customers; third, additional percentage rent received; and fourth, better performance at our JVs and managed properties. Now moving to the key variances by line item. Total revenue for the quarter was $178.7 million versus $154.9 million in the prior year. This increase was due primarily to improved collections from certain tenants, which continue to be recognized in revenue on a cash basis or had previously received abatements. With respect to Regal, we received all monthly rent and deferral payments for October through December as well as a portion of the September monthly rent and deferral payment. Both the December deferral payment of approximately $1.5 million and the partial September payment of approximately $0.8 million were not included in the midpoint of prior guidance as we had not yet received these amounts by the time of our last call. Also contributing to the increase for the quarter versus prior year was scheduled rent increases as well as the effect of acquisitions and developments completed over the past year, this increase was partially offset by the impact of property dispositions. During the fourth quarter, we also collected all deferred rent and interest due from non-Regal customers. Recall that we did not include approximately $0.5 million in the midpoint of our prior guidance representing the December deferral payment due from these customers. In total for the quarter, including Regal, we collected $6.2 million of deferred rent from cash basis customers that was recognized as revenue when received. At December 31, we had approximately $117 million of deferred rent owed to us not on the books, which will continue to be recognized only as cash as received. Regal makes up approximately $87 million of this balance and is subject to the bankruptcy negotiation. Note also, as Greg mentioned, we have already received full rent and deferral payments from Regal in January and February and have collected all non-Regal deferral amounts owed for those 2 months as well. Finally, we collected $4.6 million of deferred rent from accrual basis tenants that reduced receivables leaving on a balance on our books at December 31 of only $2.1 million, we expect to collect approximately $1.6 million of this remaining balance in 2023. Moving on, we had higher other income of $7.7 million versus the prior year, primarily due to $9.1 million in sales participation income recognized during the quarter offset by a gain on insurance recovery of $1.2 million recognized in the prior year. The sales participation income included $7 million in cash received in connection with the sale of Creme De La Creme's early childhood education business to KinderCare and $2.1 million in cash received in connection with the sale of a ski property that secured a mortgage loan, which was paid in full in 2019. Note that the sale participation income has been excluded from FFO adjusted and AFFO. Additionally, we expect KinderCare to exercise a lease termination right with respect to 5 early education properties during the second quarter of 2023, representing $2.8 million in annual rental income. The remaining 16 leases have a contractual rent adjustment based on performance that is effective on January 1, 2024. We anticipate this adjustment will partially offset the anticipated rent reduction related to these lease terminations. We expect to sell these 5 early education properties and redeploy the proceeds into experiential assets. Percentage rents for the quarter totaled $5 million or $6.9 million in the prior year. The decrease versus prior year primarily related to less percentage rent from an early education tenant based on our restructured lease, which has higher base rents in 2022. Percentage rents exceeded the midpoint of our guidance by $1.4 million due to outperformance across several of our experiential property types. G&A expense was right in line with expectations, increasing by $2.6 million versus prior year, primarily to an increase in payroll and benefit costs, including stock grant amortization, as well as an increase in travel expenses and professional fees. During the quarter, we've reassessed the holding period of the 5 KinderCare properties subject to the lease terminations, as well as 2 of the Regal theater properties that were subject to a prior motion to reject leases. As a result of this reassessment, we recognized a total of $23 million in impairment charges on these properties. These impairment charges were excluded from FFO as adjusted and AFFO. Lastly, FFO as adjusted from joint ventures decreased by $1.2 million versus prior year to a loss of $1.7 million due to the fact that we have more JVs versus the prior year and the seasonal nature of these businesses. Despite the increase in loss versus the prior year, the performance of our JVs was better than anticipated in the midpoint of our prior guidance. Shifting to full-year results, FFO as adjusted was $4.69 per share versus $3.09 in the prior year, and AFFO was $4.89 per share compared to $3.26 in the prior year. Both measures being up about 50% versus the prior year demonstrate our strong recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, full year, we collected approximately $18 million in deferred rent and interest from cash-basis customers that was recorded as income and approximately $25 million from accrual basis customers that reduced receivables. In total, for 2022, we generated operating cash flow in excess of dividends of over $175 million. Turning to the next slide, I'll review some of the company's key credit ratios. As you can see, our coverage ratios continue to be strong with fixed charge coverage of 3.4x, and both interest and debt service coverage ratio is at 4x. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 5x, and our net debt to gross assets was 39% on a book basis at December 31. Lastly, our common dividend continues to be very well covered with an AFFO payout ratio for the fourth quarter of 65%. Now let's move to our balance sheet, which is in great shape. At quarter end, we had consolidated debt of $2.8 billion, all of which is either fixed-rate debt or debt that has been fixed through interest rate swaps with a blended coupon of approximately 4.3%. Additionally, our weighted average consolidated debt maturity is 5.3 years with no scheduled debt maturities until 2024. We had nearly $108 million of cash on hand at quarter end and no balance drawn on our $1 billion revolver. We are not providing 2023 guidance for FFO as adjusted on this call due to the uncertainty related to Regal's bankruptcy. We will provide this guidance subsequent to the resolution of these proceedings. As we have previously discussed, given our current cost of capital in the current inflationary environment, we have consciously decided to limit our near-term investment spending and fund these investments primarily from cash on hand, cash from operations and borrowings under our unsecured revolving credit facility. Accordingly, our 2023 investment spending guidance is $200 million to $300 million, of which approximately $175 million relates to commitments on closed experiential development and redevelopment projects, and we do not anticipate the need to raise additional capital to fund these amounts. Our 2023 guidance for percentage rent is $8.5 million to $12.5 million, and our G&A guidance is $54 million to $57 million. Guidance details can be found on Page 24 of our supplemental. Now with that, I'll turn it back over to Greg for his closing remarks.
Greg Silvers, CEO
Thank you, Mark. Outstanding growth in FFO, strong investments in pipeline and continuing consumer resilience were just a few of the key themes of our call today. And I wanted to take a moment and acknowledge and thank our entire team of associates that work so hard to produce these results. We take pride in driving value for our shareholders, and we look forward to continuing our progress in 2023. With that, Chris, why don't we open it up for questions?
Operator, Operator
Our first question comes from Joshua Dennerlein with BofA Securities.
Joshua Dennerlein, Analyst
I was hoping to get more details about the press release where you mentioned that Regal initially filed a motion to reject three leases but then chose not to move forward with that. Can you provide any additional insights on this?
Greg Silvers, CEO
Yes, Josh, it's Greg. I wouldn't read too much into that. It's a very fluid situation. If you examine the bankruptcy process, you'll see properties being moved in and out of motions. So, as I mentioned, I don't think interpreting that is necessarily positive or negative. It's just a lot of tactics involved. But Greg, perhaps you have more to add on this?
Greg Zimmerman, CIO
No. I think that summarizes it.
Joshua Dennerlein, Analyst
Got it. And then maybe 1 more on Regal. I guess if you were to get assets back, I guess, how are you thinking about what you would do with those assets? Is it your preference to kind of sell them, redevelop the properties or just continue operating them as theaters with a different operator?
Greg Silvers, CEO
Again, it's probably one of very property-specific. If there are opportunities, we will explore whatever drives value the best. So we will explore all of that. We've talked openly about the fact that we've created optionality that if we want to have these properties managed that Greg and his team have created that optionality for us. I'm sure, depending upon where the property is located and its alternative uses, we would explore sale. So until we get a good sense of not only specific properties, but how many it's really hard to comment on the variety of alternatives we would pursue. But Greg?
Greg Zimmerman, CIO
Josh, I think coming out of the pandemic, we executed on all 3 strategies. We released some theaters. We sold some theaters. And then, as Greg mentioned, we managed 2 theaters. So we have all those options available in this case as well.
Operator, Operator
This question comes from Rob Stevenson of Janney Montgomery Scott.
Rob Stevenson, Analyst
Just to follow up on the previous question, Greg, how would you describe the current status and future plans of smaller regional operators apart from AMC and Regal over the next few years? Will they be able to take over any theaters that may become available due to legal issues, or do they have their own challenges that will require most of these theaters to be repurposed?
Greg Silvers, CEO
Again, and I'll let Greg jump in. But I think the health generally of the nonpublic tenants were substantially helped by government assistance as we saw coming into and out of the program. So I think, again, as we've always said, good theaters will find a home, and they will have people who are very interested in either operating or leasing those. I don't think it's going to be for a lack of opportunities. What’s good for the industry is I don't think you're going to see a lot of new ground-up growth. So really, what we're talking about is people will be looking for opportunities that can be very quickly taken over and brought back into production relative. But Greg?
Greg Zimmerman, CIO
Yes, I think that's accurate. And Rob, also I would say our theater coverage is 1.4x. And we do have within that coverage a number of regional theaters that continue to perform fine and well.
Rob Stevenson, Analyst
Okay. Turning to the education sector, what is the current market like for reasonably leased education assets? If you wanted to sell more of that portfolio, beyond the five you are getting back from KinderCare, is there a reasonable pricing available? Or is the pricing not quite there yet, making it better to hold onto these assets? I know that education has faced some reductions for your group for a while. How does the timeline look, and what are your thoughts on this?
Greg Silvers, CEO
Yes. I think it's the approach. And again, I'll let Greg Zimmerman contact. I think the market is still rather good if you're wanting to sell one-off assets. This is a market that still is sought after by the 1031 buyer. So there's a lot of interest there. I think as you start to kind of put large portfolios together, it's really about the debt markets and the availability of debt. So I think at that point, it kind of trades not that vastly different from a lot of net lease assets and therefore, just kind of finding the right opportunity. But I think it's still, as evidenced by the performance, a very strong, resilient asset class that there's still good demand for.
Greg Zimmerman, CIO
I agree. And the other thing I would say, Rob, is that these buildings are pretty easily used for other, I'll call it, service retail use, be it a medical use or dental office. So there are other opportunities beyond just education.
Rob Stevenson, Analyst
Okay. And then one last one for Mark. What is your best guess as to where AMC will go off cash basis accounting, assuming no major issues going forward? And then how long after Regal would exit bankruptcy, would it be reasonable for them to go off cash basis accounting, given what you know today?
Mark Peterson, CFO
Really, we want to see continued stabilization of the box office, frankly, and stabilization of the tenant credit. So we don't really put a timeframe on that. We're going to be conservative with respect to that. Frankly, we're getting paid in recognizing revenue similarly to what we'd be recognizing otherwise. And we're not in a hurry to put a whole lot of straight-line rent on the books, which would be the result when we put them back from cash basis to accrual. So I don't really have a timeframe, but we want to continue to monitor, like I said, box office improvement and certainly tenant performance before we make that decision.
Operator, Operator
This next question comes from Ki Bin Kim of Truist.
Ki Bin Kim, Analyst
Going back to the theater business, the 1.4x coverage, these operators obviously have to pay themselves, pay G&A, pay the bank back. What is, from their perspective, a healthy level of coverage because it probably has to be more than 1.4? And if you can break at that with what you think or what the industry thinks 2023 box office sales will be and where that coverage might drift up to?
Greg Silvers, CEO
We have operated for 20 years with a theater coverage metric averaging between 1.6 and 1.8. We consider the 1.7 midpoint to be quite healthy. There are varying expectations for 2023 because the film slate is still being finalized, and it's clear that the box office performance is largely influenced by the number of wide release films. We feel optimistic about our direction, especially with the productions moving into 2024, which we see as a key period for stabilization. For 2024, we're projecting a potential return to around $9 billion. The differences in figures this year compared to last will depend significantly on film releases and whether they shift to 2023 or 2024. There's still uncertainty as we approach the first quarter regarding where things will end up, but the current outlook based on studio feedback is encouraging for stabilization. Even if we reach $9 billion or more, that still represents a roughly 20% decrease from previous levels, but we believe our business remains solid in that scenario.
Greg Zimmerman, CIO
Yes, Ki Bin, the other thing I would say is sort of Greg is absolutely right. The number of major releases is of critical importance because major releases generally average about $70 million a title, but we also need smaller films to draw additional traffic to reach audiences that may have stopped coming to the theater. The ramp-up production is continuing. I think studios are understanding that they're going to make money in theatrical. I'll give you an example. Magic Mike's Last Stand was greenlit for HBO Max with the change in leadership at Warner Bros., they've decided to release it theatrically and it's made nearly $20 million. So we're kind of getting back to where we were in 2019 with theatrical bleeding into streaming and studios using flexible windows. So all that is pointing in the right direction as we heal the theatrical business.
Ki Bin Kim, Analyst
And when you compare Regal's rent coverage ratios versus AMC, I think last time we spoke, it was pretty similar. Can you just remind us if that's the case? And when you look at your Regal locations, I'm just trying to better bracket out the downside, how many good competing operators are within like a reasonable radius of the Regal locations? I'm just trying to understand if other competitor even you take the lease?
Greg Silvers, CEO
Yes, I believe there isn’t a significant difference regarding the coverage concept. As we mentioned earlier, it truly varies by market. We are confident there will be considerable demand for many of these assets. It will depend on the market since with 57 assets, we cannot generalize. But Greg?
Greg Zimmerman, CIO
Yes. That covers it. Yes.
Operator, Operator
This question comes from the line of R.J. Milligan of Raymond James.
R.J. Milligan, Analyst
I was just curious if you can give us any indication or ballpark as to when you expect the negotiations with Regal to be concluded?
Greg Silvers, CEO
That would be a great idea, R.J. If you have any insight into that, we would appreciate it. It's not that we don't want this process to end, but we need to consider the overall timeframe. When they entered bankruptcy in September, they stated they would exit by the end of February, but their latest plan now indicates they will be out in June. There are many dynamics involved. They are not only negotiating with landlords but also with existing lenders, as they have plans to convert about $3 billion to $3.5 billion of debt into equity. There are many moving parts that they are working through. Even if we, hypothetically speaking, reached a deal in a month, it might be until the end of the bankruptcy before we could announce it, as they may prefer to keep that information confidential and not disclose what we've negotiated in comparison to other landlords. I understand your frustration and your desire for clarity on the timeframe and impact, but it is difficult for us to provide that at this moment.
Mark Peterson, CFO
And while we'd like to clear the uncertainty, while we wait, we're getting paid 100% rent and 100% deferral payments. So we're doing fine as we wait, but we would like to resolve it.
R.J. Milligan, Analyst
Okay. That makes sense. And then my second question is for the 5 childhood education centers that are closing, is there anything specific about those as to why they're closing? And is that any indication in terms of the performance of the overall childhood education portfolio?
Greg Silvers, CEO
I'll let Greg expand on this. While I'm sure there are some performance issues, it's important to consider that we just completed a major acquisition. There are various factors at play, including performance and rationalization. Nonetheless, we're very pleased to have KinderCare as a public company, which will provide us with greater visibility. When we executed this 4 or 5 years ago, we established a rent reset, which we believe will help recover a significant portion of our investment and also allows us to free up assets for capital recycling. I don't think this reflects the overall health of early education; as Greg mentioned, we actually saw increases in attendance and revenue. Overall, we experienced strong performance within the portfolio.
Mark Peterson, CFO
Interestingly, by the time you have the rent reset, which we think will offset the annual decrease, plus add in the fact that we got $7 million, plus we will sell these 5 properties in time. By the time we redeploy that, overall, when you look at it and step back, probably come up better than we were before in terms of NOI, although it will take a little time to get there.
Operator, Operator
This next question comes from the line of Aditi Balachandran of RBC Capital Markets.
Aditi Balachandran, Analyst
Just 1 quick question from me. Going on with KinderCare, are there any other tenants with similar lease termination rents in KinderCare?
Greg Silvers, CEO
Not really. We don’t – I mean, remember, this was negotiated when we – this is probably – Greg, you helped me 5, 6 years ago, when we did the Children’s Learning Adventure moving into this – the new operator prior to KinderCare?
Greg Zimmerman, CIO
Crème de la Crème.
Greg Silvers, CEO
Crème de la Crème to do that. But from a broad speed, termination rights are not something that we have in our portfolio.
Operator, Operator
This next question comes from the line of John Massocca of Ladenburg Thalmann.
John Massocca, Analyst
In the fourth quarter, considering the investment in Gravity House, can you provide an estimate of the loan-to-value ratios on the mortgage investments related to the experiential lodging sector?
Greg Silvers, CEO
Again, I'll let Greg, but I think it's closer to 60%-65%, and so they're pretty relative low LTVs and in a lot of these scenarios and Greg can speak to this. We also have conversion rights that we can at some point in time in the future, convert these to long-term leases. So we are creating what we think is good optionality for us to control the property long term, but different than a development lease in a mortgage structure, you gain immediate income from those mortgage notes. And then if we preserve the right to convert those in the future, it gives us a little bit better kind of income and visibility and deployment and impact.
John Massocca, Analyst
Okay. That's very helpful. And then going back to Regal. If you think about the $87 million of kind of deferred rent that's owed by the tenant, if you do get assets handed back in bankruptcy, should we expect that amount to be reduced kind of on a one-for-one basis roughly to the amount of leases that are rejected, i.e., ex percentage of leases get rejected, it will be that deferral amount would be reduced by a similar percentage?
Greg Silvers, CEO
No, because it actually depends on the rent associated with the different types of properties that have the leases. Not all leases equate to $87 million divided by 57. It is largely influenced by the income linked to each specific lease.
John Massocca, Analyst
Okay. So it's going to be very specific to the assets that either do or don't get approved.
Greg Silvers, CEO
Yes. Yes.
Operator, Operator
This comes from the line of Ki Bin Kim of Truist.
Ki Bin Kim, Analyst
Just a quick one. So excluding the theater tenancy, how are you thinking about bad debt for the remainder of the portfolio in 2023?
Mark Peterson, CFO
Yes. We put in kind of a general 1% reserve, frankly, with the coverage being at 2.7, we feel pretty good about that. Higher than it was in 2019, but we always put some reserves in for bad debt.
Ki Bin Kim, Analyst
Is there any noticeable concentration within the bad debt, or is it more general?
Mark Peterson, CFO
Well, it's kind of a general reserve because, frankly, we really don't see many issues at all within our non-theater portfolio.
Greg Silvers, CEO
So it's just a general, it's not kind of specific, Ki Bin.
Ki Bin Kim, Analyst
Okay. Great. And then just one more question about the mortgage loans you provide. Are they all current right now, or do you notice any aging issues?
Greg Silvers, CEO
No. None. All current.
Operator, Operator
That concludes our Q&A segment for this presentation. I'll turn it back over to Greg Silvers for any further remarks.
Greg Silvers, CEO
I want to thank everyone for participating today. We look forward to speaking with you soon. Also, thanks to John for reminding us that we are the home of the Super Bowl Champion, which we truly appreciate. Thank you all and have a great day.
Greg Zimmerman, CIO
Thanks.
Operator, Operator
And thanks, again. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.