Earnings Call Transcript - EXC Q1 2022

Operator, Operator

Hello, and welcome to Exelon's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. My name is Olivia, and I'll be your event specialist today. Please note that today's webcast is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn today's program over to Jeanne Jones, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance. The floor is yours.

Jeanne Jones, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance

Thank you, Olivia. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our first quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Leading the call today are Chris Crane, Exelon's President and Chief Executive Officer; and Joe Nigro, Exelon's Chief Financial Officer. They're joined by other members of Exelon's senior management team who will be available to answer your questions following our prepared remarks. We issued our earnings release this morning along with the presentation, all of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of Exelon's website. The earnings release and other matters which we discuss during today's call contain forward-looking statements and estimates that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ from our forward-looking statements based on factors and assumptions discussed in today's material and comments made during this call. Please refer to today's 8-K and Exelon's other SEC filings for discussions of risk factors and other factors that may cause results to differ from management's projections, forecasts, and expectations. Today's presentation also includes references to adjusted operating earnings and other non-GAAP measures. Please refer to the information contained in the appendix of our presentation and our earnings release for reconciliations between the non-GAAP measures and the nearest equivalent GAAP measures. We've scheduled 45 minutes for today's call. I'll now turn the call over to Chris Crane, Exelon's CEO.

Chris Crane, CEO

Thanks, Jeanne, and good morning to everybody, and thanks for joining us. We're pleased to host our first post-separation earnings call as the nation's premier T&D utility company. We closed, as you all know, on the separation on February 1, delivering on our commitment to close within the first quarter of 2022. The transition has really unlocked significant value for our shareholders. In the time of announcing a year ago through mid-April this year, the total shareholder return was 76%, far exceeding the UTY Index and the S&P. At the same time, we continue to demonstrate our reliability focused on operational and financial excellence. We earned $0.49 per share on a GAAP basis and $0.64 per share on a non-GAAP basis. We also completed a successful bond deal for our holding company with attractive pricing, showing the value of our strong balance sheet even in a challenging market. Joe will cover the financial highlights in his presentation shortly. On the regulatory front, it is a quiet year, but we made progress in several jurisdictions to support our investment plans on behalf of our customers. This includes a settlement in Delmarva, Maryland in the electric case, the gas filing for Delmarva Delaware and PECO, and our last distribution filing under the ComEd distribution formula rate. In addition, ComEd continues to work with the stakeholders on the CEJA, last year's landmark clean energy legislation that continues to support what our customers and our stakeholders want. It's a clear path to Illinois electric utilities to transition into a rate-setting process while we're ensuring that we support its ambitious climate goals and social equity goals. We feel comfortable in our process going forward. ComEd has proposed a performance metrics plan before the ICC which includes 8 performance metrics and 13 tracking metrics. As we adjust our proposal for stakeholder feedback, we're optimistic that the metrics approved by the commission will support continued improvement in our top-tier service for customers. We expect the final order by the end of the third quarter. There's a lot of work to be done between here and there. ComEd is also participating in the stakeholder process in a multiyear integrated grid plan workshop. The plan will help ComEd's long-term investment planning process and priorities with the regulators. This is in preparation for our filing in early 2023 for rates effective in 2024. Joe will cover that case in a little bit more detail. Beyond the financial performance and operational performance, we continue to focus on our communities and the transition to a cleaner grid. We joined the DOE's better climate challenge in February, reinforcing our Path to Clean commitment to reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gases by 50% by 2030. As part of the HBCU corporate scholars program announced last fall, we have 24 students who were awarded $2.4 million in scholarships. This program will support the next generation to lead our clean energy future. It's astounding to sit with these young students and see their passion for where they want to go in the future. We are funding support for small business development in underserved communities in our service territory with more than 65 workforce-type programs where we train and prepare individuals for employment. Our fifth annual STEM Academy will be held this summer in Philadelphia, Chicago, D.C., and the Baltimore area with a goal of around 60 young women involved. Moving to our operations, we're delivering safe, reliable service across the jurisdictions. Performance has remained solid and outage durations and frequency remain our top priority. Our utilities are working together to improve in specific areas. As you saw this weekend, the storms in the Mid-Atlantic have continued to intensify, but our operations teams are really focused on that and continuing to drive standards of construction reliability up. ComEd's reliability performance was top decile in both CAIDI and SAIFI, delivering the highest first-quarter reliability to customers in years. We made improvements in OSHA performance, bringing PECO up to the top quartile, but we are not satisfied with anything less than the safest experience for our employees and our communities, and we still have work to do on that. It's a top priority for all our operations. BGE, ComEd, and PECO all achieved top quartile customer satisfaction through the quarter. In all three of our utilities that distribute gas, we're in the top decile in order response. PHI had perfect execution, responding to all its gas orders in less than 1 hour - - a feat given the large service territory. Joe will highlight some of our investments we're making to help deliver this performance. And with that, I'll turn it over to Joe for you to hear about the financial updates and some of the strategic actions we're taking.

Joe Nigro, CFO

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. Today, I'll cover our first quarter results, as Chris mentioned, our quarterly financial updates, and highlight several areas in which our utilities are making investments for the benefit of our customers. If I start on Slide 6, we show our quarter-over-quarter adjusted operating earnings walk. Exelon's continuing operations earned $0.64 in Q1 of 2022 versus $0.55 in Q1 of '21. Let me start by reminding you of the impacts to Exelon's financials following the separation. As disclosed in our 8-K issued on February 25, beginning with the 10-Q to be filed today for the first quarter of 2022, we are presenting our former Generation segment as discontinued operations for the 1-month period in 2022 prior to the separation and for the 3 months ended March 31, 2021. Financial results for the utilities and the holding company are reported as continuing operations. As a reminder, accounting rules require that certain corporate overhead costs previously allocated to generation be presented as part of Exelon's continuing operations. I want to note that these costs were paid for by generation and they are not indicative of our corporate overhead post-separation. The impact of this business services company allocation adjustment to Exelon's continuing operations is $0.09 for the first quarter of '21 and $0.02 for the one month in 2022 on an after-tax basis. You will continue to see this adjustment for '21 as we present prior year quarters. However, this adjustment only impacts Q1 for 2022. Excluding the $0.07 quarter-over-quarter impact of the discontinued operations accounting adjustment for BFC allocations, Exelon's first-quarter results were $0.02 higher than the first quarter of '21. The improvement from '21 was primarily driven by higher transmission and distribution rates associated with completed rate cases, partially offset by depreciation and amortization at the utilities and the impact of rising interest rates on debt at the holding company. Our operating earnings results of $0.64 for the first quarter were in line with the percentage of full-year earnings we shared with you in the January 2022 Analyst Day presentation. Turning to our full-year outlook. We reaffirm our 2022 earnings guidance range of $2.18 to $2.32 per share. While we have benefited from rising treasury rates on ComEd's distribution return on equity, like most companies, we were also impacted by higher interest expense in our debt, specifically at our holding company. As we normally do, we will update guidance on our Q3 call. As a reminder, we have committed to a long-term operating earnings growth target of 6% to 8% through 2025, off the midpoint of guidance for '21 communicated on Analyst Day. Moving to Slide 7. Looking at our utility returns on a consolidated basis, we expect to be within our consolidated 9% to 10% target range by year-end. As of the first quarter, our trailing 12-month return on equity of 8.9% dipped slightly below our range. Despite higher earnings driven primarily by distribution and transmission rates, the earnings were outpaced by the timing of equity infusions across all our utilities to support capital investments. We remain focused on delivering stronger returns at the utilities, which sustain the investment we make on behalf of our customers. Turning to Slide 8. There were some important developments on the regulatory front since the beginning of the year. First, on January 14, Delmarva Power filed an application with the Delaware Public Service Commission seeking a $14.5 million increase in gas distribution base rates, reflecting an ROE of 10.3%. Delmarva Power customers continue to benefit from the major enhancements that are being made to the local natural gas system. Key projects to strengthen and create additional capacity in the company's natural gas delivery system have been critical to meet growing load. As permitted by Delaware law, Delmarva Power will implement full allowable rates on August 14, subject to refund. Second, Delmarva Maryland received a final order for its distribution electric rate case on March 2. The Maryland Commission approved the proposed settlement order by the Chief Public Utility Law Judge that recommended a $12.5 million increase in annual electric distribution rates, reflecting an ROE of 9.6%. Third, on March 31, PECO filed a gas distribution rate case with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission. PECO is seeking a revenue increase of $82 million to support significant investments in critical infrastructure that will modernize and enhance the natural gas system and allow us to continue delivering safe and reliable natural gas service while reducing methane emissions. In addition, the filing proposes enhanced energy efficiency and customer safety programs, increased customer assistance with additional low-income funding and the continuation of small business grant programs. We expect an order in the fourth quarter of 2022. Finally, ComEd filed its annual distribution formula rate update with the Illinois Commerce Commission on April 15, seeking a $199 million increase to electric distribution base rates that resulted in a $2.20 increase in the average monthly residential bill starting January 2023. While ComEd is requesting a delivery charge increase, there will be offsets. Specifically, when taking into account higher energy prices based on the recent procurement auction and forwards, offset by lower capacity prices, the carbon mitigation credits, and accelerated tax benefits, we currently estimate a net reduction to the average monthly residential bill. ComEd's residential customer rates next January are expected to be at least 10% below the average of rates in the 10 largest U.S. metropolitan areas. In its formula filing, ComEd's request supports investments needed to sustain the record-level reliability performance for residential and commercial customers and helps advance the goals of the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act passed in Illinois to address climate change, create clean energy jobs, ensure equity, and prioritize a just transition to a green economy. We expect to receive an order by early December. We continue to maintain constructive regulatory relationships across our jurisdictions and are working with our regulators, states, and communities to support their clean energy and climate goals. As a reminder, we expect nearly 100% of our rate base growth will be covered by alternative recovery mechanisms by the end of our planning period. More details on these rate cases can be found on Slides 17 through 20 of the appendix. Slide 9 provides an update on how Exelon's utilities are working with key stakeholders to help our customers and jurisdictions achieve their decarbonization goals reliably, affordably, and equitably. Electric vehicle adoption is unquestionably a key enabler for reducing emissions, as the transportation sector currently represents about a third of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Our jurisdictions alone are targeting 4.2 million electric vehicles on the road over the next 25 years, a twentyfold increase relative to the number of EVs in our service territories as of the end of 2021. Given our competitive rates, electric vehicles also provide our customers the ability to save money. Using the Department of Energy's e-Gallon calculation, the annual cost of an electric vehicle is approximately $1.30 per gallon compared to the price of gasoline at $4.30 per gallon. On average, customers in Exelon service territories could save more than $1,000 per year in fuel costs by switching to an EV. Utilizing Exelon's EV time of use rates could offer an additional 11% savings per year. While we recognize there are adoption costs and other barriers to entry, we value the role we play in bridging social equity gaps. Working with our jurisdictions, we bridge those gaps through programs authorized in the Climate Solutions Now Act in Maryland, which allows utilities to partner with local school boards and offer up to $50 million in rebates to incentivize the purchase and operation of electric school buses. The benefits are not limited to EV buyers. As more energy use applications leverage the grid, fixed costs will naturally be lower for customers who have not yet made the switch to electric vehicles. As our states make this transition over the coming decades, Exelon is poised to support our customers through investments such as upgraded distribution circuitry, substations, and ultimately transmission. Transforming the grid over this period to meet the increased standards required by EVs, along with other expanded and innovative uses of the grid, will require significant investment. Our Path to Clean encourages customers and communities to reduce their emissions through access to clean energy solutions. When establishing our goals, the focus was not solely on the environment but also on equity, affordability, reliability, and sustaining our communities. The role we are playing in the transformation of the transportation sector is a great example of this commitment. Moving to Slide 10. During the first quarter, we continued to invest capital for the benefit of our customers and are on track to meet our $6.9 billion commitment for 2022. These investments will improve reliability and resiliency, enhance service for our customers, and prepare the grid for a clean energy future. As we have done on past earnings calls, I'd like to feature 2 projects within our portfolio of utility investments. The first is Pepco's Harvard substation rebuild. This substation is part of a larger capital grid project and is currently under construction with expected completion in 2023. This $220 million project will renovate aging infrastructure originally installed over a century ago to improve grid reliability and resiliency. The rebuild also expands regional transmission capacity, supporting future load growth in Washington, D.C. The second project is ComEd's $39 million Project Goldframe. ComEd completed it last fall, 3 months ahead of schedule, to meet the customers' accelerated project timeline. To service new load obligations at the data center and surrounding area, ComEd installed a new 138 kV substation and associated equipment, including an indoor control building, 15 138-kV circuit breakers, 4 capacitor banks, and transmission line extensions to the DeKalb area in Illinois. This was the first large-scale project resulting from the passage of the Illinois Data Center Tax Incentive Program in 2019. It also likely creates additional renewable energy projects in the state as 100% of customer usage will be offset by wind and solar contracts. Both projects are great examples of how we are connecting our customers and communities to affordable, clean, and resilient solutions while enabling economic growth and local job creation through these modernization investments. These projects in their own right have significant economic and social benefits to our customers and communities served. However, combined, they represent less than 1% of Exelon's projected capital spend from 2022 to '25. This puts in perspective the scale and the impact of our investments. Moving on to Slide 11. As you've heard us say at Analyst Day, our consolidated corporate credit metrics are anticipated to average 13% to 14% at S&P and Moody's over the 2022 to '24 time period. Overall, maintaining a strong balance sheet to firmly support investment-grade credit ratings is core to our strategy and who we are. From a financing perspective, we successfully completed a $2 billion corporate debt offering in the first quarter, which completes our long-term debt financing needs at the corporate level for the year. This inaugural offering as a new company garnered significant interest from investors, enabling a very strong execution that was a true testament to the strength of our balance sheet and our new platform. And finally, there has been no change in our guidance to issue $1 billion of equity at the holding company by 2025. Thank you, and I'll now turn the call back to Chris for his closing remarks.

Chris Crane, CEO

Thanks, Joe. Turning to Slide 12. I'll close by reminding you all of Exelon's value proposition as the premier utility company in the nation. We're providing significant value, size, and scale, which is particularly beneficial given the challenges posed in today's microeconomic environment and the intensified storm activity over the weekend. We continue to be able to move resources and procure the necessary needs in the right environment. Our best-in-class operations have led us to a world-class customer experience alongside constructive regulatory environments, which is essential—if our customers are not satisfied, the regulators aren't satisfied, and that's a major focus for us. Our commitment to ESG principles by driving a cleaner energy economy and advancing social equity, as Joe mentioned, and a strong balance sheet that will ensure our ability to invest on behalf of all our stakeholders, not only the customers but also those who want to see a stronger, cleaner environment. All of these factors support our opportunity to invest $29 billion of capital over the next 4 years in response to customer needs, which will lead to an annualized 6% to 8% operating earnings growth through 2025. We've targeted a payout of 60% of those operating earnings each year back to the shareholders. Thank you very much for joining us, and now we'll open it up for questions that you may have.

Paul Zimbardo, Analyst

I'm going to kick it off, if you could give a little bit more quantification of the net impact between the higher interest rate environment on the formula ROE in Illinois offset by the corporate cost. It seems like a net positive when mixing those 2 together. So just want to check if there's any other factors to be cognizant of.

Chris Crane, CEO

Joe, do you want to take that?

Joe Nigro, CFO

Yes, I will, Chris. Paul, thanks for the question. When you look at the sensitivities we've shown you in the table, a 50 basis point move in treasury rates is worth about $0.04 to ComEd, which is what we saw at the end of the first quarter. And that was about $0.01 of that was realized based on how the formula prices over the course of the year. We've subsequently seen those rates move higher here in the second quarter. On the flip side to that, when you look at our corporate debt, we show you a sensitivity to a 50 basis point move, which is about a $0.01 impact. That move, roughly 100 basis points or so in the third year, year-to-date is down about $0.02, and those are the 2 big drivers of each of those variables.

Paul Zimbardo, Analyst

Okay. Great. That's helpful. It does seem positive. And then the other, I know you said no changes to the equity issuance expectations. Just if you could discuss the approach to the timing and methodology, maybe a block or ATM, just given the appreciation of Exelon and the utility sector broadly.

Joe Nigro, CFO

I think as we've said, we're expecting to issue up to $1 billion of equity by 2025. We haven't said necessarily when we're going to issue that. The timing will be dependent on market conditions as well as the need for the cash itself, obviously. I mean, there's a lot of things changing in the macro environment when you look at interest rates and what the equity market is doing. We'll work with our banking partners to make a determination at the time we need the equity or the cash as to what type of product we'll use. But at this point, we haven't made that final determination.

Chris Crane, CEO

Yes. And I think the key, Joe, on that is watching the solid balance sheet metrics and ensuring that we continue to focus on that.

Joe Nigro, CFO

Yes, that's right, Chris. I mean you and I both said in our scripts, right, we're investing $29 billion here over the next 4 years. What we said at Analyst Day is $14 billion of that will come from internal generated cash flows with the utilities, $14 billion from debt we raise across the enterprise, and then about the need for the $1 billion—we just haven't made a determination as to when we need it.

Steven Fleishman, Analyst

So just want to clarify the adjustments, not looking backward, but maybe looking more forward. The $0.64 in the quarter includes $0.02 related to that last month of Constellation. So if we look to '23 in the future, would $0.66 essentially be the right base to kind of forecast from? Other drivers in the future?

Joe Nigro, CFO

Yes, Steve. Thanks for the question. You're right in the way—if you're talking about the performance of the business in the first quarter and removing the impact of discontinued operations, it was $0.66. When you compare that to Q1 for '21, the equivalent number would be $0.64. You're also right that the impact in Q1, because we have to recast the whole quarter, was $0.09. But because we closed the separation on February 1, it's only a one-month impact in '22. We would expect that one-month impact to effectively drag into the comparisons you see in '23 next year because of the month of January of this year.

Steven Fleishman, Analyst

Okay. Great. And then just the ROE improvement that you're expecting over the course of the year. Is that just kind of the normal rate relief flowing through and things like that? There's no other kind of key new drivers required to get the returns up?

Chris Crane, CEO

It's a little lumpy. But as the rate cases go through, we expect the improvement to go within our range of 9% to 10%, and we just have to execute on the plan. So 8.9 right now should come up, Joe, within a few quarters, and we'll be within our range of desire.

Joe Nigro, CFO

That's correct, Chris. We'll be in that 9% to 10% range by year-end, Steve. We infused equity into the utilities in the first quarter. The earnings were up, but they weren't up enough to offset that equity infusion, and it just takes some time to reverse that effect.

Jeremy Tonet, Analyst

Just want to go over to Illinois here real quick. I wonder if you could update us a bit on how the Illinois rate-making process is progressing in the transition to its new multiyear framework. Any color you could share there would be helpful.

Chris Crane, CEO

Joe, are you going to cover that?

Calvin Butler, Senior Executive Officer

Jeremy, Chris, this is Calvin. I'll take that one. ComEd, as Chris outlined, filed its last rate case under the formula rate this year. They are preparing a meeting with stakeholders, including the Illinois Commerce Commission, for their first filing of whether it's a traditional future test year or whether they go into a 4-year multiyear plan as outlined by the new energy law. The meetings with the stakeholders are critical in that, as ComEd lays out its options. Chris outlined, they will be making that filing in the first part of 2023, with an expected ruling from the commission by the end of the year. So to your direct question, the transition is going smoothly. All meetings are being conducted, and the team is aligning on the appropriate course moving forward.

Jeremy Tonet, Analyst

Got it. That's very helpful. And just with the new look Exelon here, just wondering how do corporate cost efforts currently stand since the separation? Are they tracking your expectations at this point? And do you have any sense for upside opportunities and potential magnitude of cost savings over time now post-separation?

Chris Crane, CEO

Yes. I wouldn't commit to upside yet. We've got to get through this transition. There's a lot of work being done by the business services company to execute on plan. We feel comfortable. We’re watching the IT transition quite closely—that's a crucial part of making our targets. Right now, we're on track and we hope to improve on it, but I wouldn’t commit to any significant improvement at this point. We have to continue to work through the process of the separation.

Durgesh Chopra, Analyst

I have a quick clarification and then a big picture question on EVs. Just, Chris, I think you mentioned, if I heard it correctly, an order in the third quarter on the Illinois, I believe the multiyear rate framework, and I believe it relates to the discussions on metrics, operational metrics that are sort of adders to the ROE. Did I hear that correctly?

Chris Crane, CEO

I wouldn't say it's the third quarter, Calvin. It's at the end of 2023 that would be finalized, but we did put in our input for the metrics, the operational metrics to ensure customer satisfaction. But your timeline is accurate.

Joe Nigro, CFO

Chris, you're right. We did put something in our metrics, and we would expect to get a response back on that in the timeline mentioned, but not the full rate case itself.

Calvin Butler, Senior Executive Officer

Right. So the performance metrics, as we've outlined, as you hit, Chris, the 8 performance metrics that they're looking for are currently being defined by the statute, by the law. Gil and his team are working to drive what those are and give an agreement and alignment to how we move forward. But yes, we think within that, we know that within the filing, we will all be locked down, and our filing will take place in the first quarter of 2023.

Durgesh Chopra, Analyst

Got it. But just to be clear, the stance or the commission order as to what those metrics might look like and what those metrics look like, both qualitatively and quantitatively, that comes in later in 2023?

Joe Nigro, CFO

Yes, by September 30 of this year.

Calvin Butler, Senior Executive Officer

Correct. By September 30 this year, we will have outlines, which will allow the team to prepare for the rate case filing in the first quarter of 2023. We will know exactly what they are and how they will positively or negatively impact the business if those metrics aren't met.

Durgesh Chopra, Analyst

Perfect. I appreciate you clarifying that. So in the third quarter, we'll know what those metrics are, and that will dictate your filing in the first quarter of 2023.

Chris Crane, CEO

Yes. For the customers as well, it's our major focus to continue looking forward to service the customer needs. But thank you for joining the call today. We're looking forward to our continuing performance across our utilities. With that, Jeanne, unless there's anything else, I'll close the call.

Jeanne Jones, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance

Thanks, Chris.

Chris Crane, CEO

Thanks, everybody. Bye.

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thanks to all our participants for joining us today. This concludes our presentation. You may now disconnect. Have a good day.