Earnings Call Transcript - FANG Q1 2026

Operator, Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Diamondback Energy, Inc. first quarter 2026 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers’ presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press 11 again. Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Adam T. Lawlis, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Adam T. Lawlis, VP of Investor Relations

Thank you, Corey. Good morning, and welcome to Diamondback Energy, Inc.’s first quarter 2026 conference call. During our call today, we will reference an updated investor presentation and letter to stockholders that can be found on Diamondback Energy, Inc.’s website. Representing Diamondback Energy, Inc. today are Kaes Van’t Hof, Daniel N. Wesson, Jere W. Thompson, and Albert Barkmann. During this conference call, the participants may make certain forward-looking statements relating to the company’s financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance, and businesses. We caution you that actual results could differ materially from those that are indicated in forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors. Information concerning these factors can be found in the company’s filings with the SEC. In addition, we will make reference to certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations with the appropriate GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release issued yesterday afternoon. I will now turn the call over to Kaes Van’t Hof.

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

Thanks, Adam, and welcome, everyone. As with the last few years, we are going to go straight into Q&A. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. One moment. As a reminder, to ask a question, you can press 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. We will now open the call for questions. Our first question comes from the line of Neil Singhvi Mehta of Goldman Sachs. Neil, your line is open.

Neil Singhvi Mehta, Analyst (Goldman Sachs)

Good morning, Kaes, and good morning, team. The big development you have been signaling is the move to a green-light framework from yellow-light, adding two to three rigs and moving to the fifth completion crew. Can you take a moment to talk about the thought process that went into this decision and how you are thinking about where and when to add activity?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

Yes, Neil. Good question. There are macro and micro elements. From a macro perspective, there is a clear market signal. We are two months into the world’s largest oil supply disruption in history, and while Diamondback Energy, Inc. is solely based in West Texas and somewhat of a tourist in this situation, it is a very serious event with a lot of oil supply off the market. If that is not a signal to grow production in an advantaged area like the Permian Basin, I do not know what is. We hope there is a resolution to the conflict, but even if there is, there is a lot of noise in the system and a lot of barrels have been taken off the market. Global inventories are starting to decline rapidly, and we are going to do our small part to add production. On the micro, Diamondback Energy, Inc. has the best inventory quality and depth in North America, executed at the best cost structure. If this is not the time to grow now, then when? We are able to do this in a very capital-efficient manner and get it done quickly. We have a backlog of DUCs and we prepare our business for up, down, or sideways. By adding a frac crew earlier in the year, we can get production up immediately. It is a testament to the team’s preparation and the whole organization working together to do this very quickly. In other organizations, the decision might take longer.

Neil Singhvi Mehta, Analyst (Goldman Sachs)

Thanks, Kaes. On the return of cash framework, you did not move away from the fixed framework, and while you bumped the dividend, you indicated you might slow the buyback a little bit. What did you intend to communicate with that? Also, there is a concentrated seller ownership base. If the family ultimately sells down their stake, do you still view Diamondback Energy, Inc. as a logical buyer to help offset that potential risk on the stock?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

Let us take it higher level. Allocating capital is our most important job. The return-of-capital programs were put in place after the COVID near-extinction event, when investors said, "I want my money back and I want it in a formulaic manner." That has worked very well. We do not expect our ability to return capital to stockholders to change. We just want the flexibility to make more cyclical moves versus moves within a 90-day window. We have a very good track record buying back our stock: 42 million shares for $6 billion to date at $148 per share. With the stock where it is today, that is a very positive return for our stockholders, and I expect that to continue. We recognize we also have a large shareholder, and we have found ways to help monetize their stake efficiently. They are most focused on us creating long-term value. Allocating a ton of free cash to the balance sheet in times of extremely high oil prices creates long-term value with, in our mind, a higher floor for the stock. I would not expect anything to change. We have a great relationship with the family and the ability to help them monetize. If we use excess free cash flow over the next couple of quarters to pay down debt, we can help monetize their stake more efficiently coming out of this. They are long-term holders and they want the stock higher.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Michael Hanold of RBC Capital Markets. Scott, your line is open.

Scott Michael Hanold, Analyst (RBC Capital Markets)

Thanks. You all had pretty robust production performance in 1Q. Based on our chat last night, it sounds like your completions were as planned. Can you walk through why performance was so strong? It sounds like it was a lot more well performance versus any other dynamic. Is that something we should anticipate moving forward, and what is embedded in guidance?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

Yes, Scott. High level, our well performance year-to-date looks up relative to last year, which is probably even a surprise to us internally. We continue to try new things in completion design and efficiency that are starting to pay dividends. On the production side, there are a lot of good things happening in the field: less downtime, more automation—call it AI or automation—impacting that side of the business. Better wells and lower downtime is a good recipe for a production beat.

Daniel N. Wesson, COO

Post the Endeavor merger and getting the team together, we started trading a lot of ideas to optimize primary completions as well as the base. On the completion optimization side, with perforating strategies, rate design, and sand loadings, we think we are seeing uplift, and time will tell as we continue to implement that design. On the production side, workovers and treatments—acid jobs, chlorine dioxide jobs, surfactant jobs—are starting to pay dividends. Layering on machine learning as we continue to look at our data streams and processes, we are working toward implementing AI into field operations. We are seeing downtime come down, which was a big part of the beat in Q1. Little bits of optimization across the board are starting to show through to the top-line number.

Scott Michael Hanold, Analyst (RBC Capital Markets)

When you guided oil, it looks like you could be greater than potentially 520 thousand barrels per day. If the macro environment continues, how much desire is there to continue to let oil production grow versus curtail it? Is there a scenario where you would step it up even higher if the macro remains heightened?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

It is fluid, and the board wants us to take this quarter by quarter. If there is outperformance and we still have triple-digit oil prices and the market is calling for oil, this could be a year where, instead of pulling back activity, you keep efficiencies going and let production continue to climb. We are only two months into this conflict, and it could be resolved quickly. We are ready to react. We still have levers to grow further, but for now, 520 thousand-plus barrels per day of oil is the new baseline.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Neal Dingmann of William Blair. Neal, your line is open.

Neal Dingmann, Analyst (William Blair)

Morning, Kaes and team. Thanks for fitting me in. My question is on activity. How much, if any, will negative Waha prices impact what you might or might not do? Same question with oilfield service prices—are you expecting OFS inflation given what is going on with prices?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

On Waha, pricing is deeply negative. We are well protected with financial and physical hedges. Our mix is moving more toward physical when the two new pipes come on, hopefully in the second half of the year. We are protected to get through this tight spot financially while we continue to add oily inventory—we are drilling some of the oiliest stuff in the basin. We will continue to work on physical protection on the gas side. We have worked on a power project for almost a year; we will see if we can get that done. We have talked at length about monetizing our gas, and we are on the cusp of that starting to happen when these pipes come on. Danny, on services?

Daniel N. Wesson, COO

We have not seen much pressure to date on service pricing. It is really a capacity question—what does service capacity look like? We have not seen industry activity ramp aggressively through these first couple of months of this conflict, so there is still quite a bit of capacity in rigs and completions. Calendars are not squeezed enough yet for providers to push pricing when we look for additional equipment. We have seen some inflation in consumables tied directly to commodity price, but those have been minimal thus far. We will see what activity does in the Permian and the Lower 48 to gauge service inflation through the rest of the year.

Neal Dingmann, Analyst (William Blair)

On capital allocation—given likely record free cash flow per share—how does capital for M&A stack up against buybacks or near-term debt repayment?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

The options for free cash flow are to grow—organically or inorganically—return cash, pay down debt, or hold cash. On organic growth, we pulled that lever in a small way by going to the top end of our CapEx guidance. On inorganic (M&A), we have been very good over the years, but this volatility makes deals difficult, private or otherwise. M&A is likely fairly quiet at Diamondback Energy, Inc. for the foreseeable future. We increased the base dividend. With oil prices where they are, we do not know if investors are capitalizing this price environment yet. For us, the bigger use of free cash is to pay down debt rapidly and convert that debt value to equity value in our NAV, and to keep some cash for a rainy day because this is a very volatile environment.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram of JPMorgan Securities. Arun, your line is open.

Arun Jayaram, Analyst (JPMorgan Securities)

Good morning. The 2026 and 2027 strips are around $90 and $75. How do you think about development in a much stronger oil price than 90 days ago? For the two to three incremental rigs, how are you thinking about capital allocation across the asset base? Are deeper benches now competing for capital as you drive down well costs in the Barnett?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

Even with higher commodity pricing, we are going to hold to the vast majority of our spacing assumptions throughout the basin. We look at each DSU-level project to maximize wells until the incremental last well generates a 40% rate of return at $60 oil. That provides prudent spacing and solid returns despite volatility. Drilling our best stuff first and sticking to that knitting continues. The Barnett, particularly given well sizes from a production perspective, generates more PV today, so it is getting more attention.

Albert Barkmann, Executive Vice President

That is right, Arun. The acceleration coming in with these two rigs is really an acceleration of the Barnett plan. We are focused on that development and getting ahead of the Barnett obligations we discussed last quarter.

Daniel N. Wesson, COO

I will add that Barnett activity and obligation activity are almost entirely focused on the JV area with another partner. Those wells are not as high working interest—about half and half, a little heavier weighted to Diamondback Energy, Inc. The two to three rigs equate to about 1.5 net rigs at Diamondback Energy, Inc. The top line looks like we are adding a bunch of activity in the back half, but net to us it will be less impactful.

Arun Jayaram, Analyst (JPMorgan Securities)

For Jere, you have taken pro forma net debt down to $12.7 billion. Given the intention to pay down more debt in a higher commodity price environment, what are your targets for the balance sheet from a gross or net debt perspective?

Jere W. Thompson, CFO

Great question. We previously talked about hitting $10 billion net debt sometime in the next 12 to 18 months. With current commodity pricing and excess free cash flow generation, it looks like we can hit that much earlier—potentially in a couple of months. As we move into the back end of the year, we will have an opportunity to reduce both net and gross debt. We will build cash on the balance sheet through the fourth quarter and then look at calling our $750 million of 2026s outstanding. As we move into 2027, we may consider a larger liability management exercise with additional cash to take out as much as we can from near-term maturities, particularly anything maturing prior to 2030. We are in an advantaged position to move our balance sheet from a position of strength to a fortress in the near term.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of John Christopher Freeman of Raymond James. John, your line is open.

John Christopher Freeman, Analyst (Raymond James)

Thank you. Even after increasing activity, your reinvestment rate still fell sharply from what you planned last quarter—from 44% to 34% at the current strip. You have the ability to increase activity more and still have an industry-leading low reinvestment rate. Is there a reinvestment rate that you want to stay below regardless of the commodity environment?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

We have polled investors who own the stock. The general consensus: a little growth will differentiate Diamondback Energy, Inc. and makes sense, but do not do it in a capital-inefficient manner. We were going to run between four and five frac crews to hit our original guide. That fifth crew was going to go away for five or six months and then come back. It is a Halliburton e-fleet simul-frac, as efficient as it gets. We are just bringing that crew back to run five crews consistently. That maintains capital efficiency versus going too fast too soon, which has driven inefficiencies in E&Ps’ plans and, at times, ours. Staying capital efficient is the priority; the reinvestment rate is an output of that.

John Christopher Freeman, Analyst (Raymond James)

Along those lines, the original 2026 plan did not forecast meaningful DUC draws or builds. How does that look now with the new plan?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

It evolves through the year. We will draw down DUCs in Q2 and backfill with two rigs worth of activity to build the DUC balance back up. We peaked a little over 200 DUCs in Q1. That number will come down in Q2, and the backfill rigs will rebuild it. We likely need to keep a slightly higher DUC balance than with four crews—around the high hundreds, about 200 DUCs—so we have two projects behind each crew ready to go.

Daniel N. Wesson, COO

We like to keep a quarter to a quarter-and-a-half worth of inventory ahead of each crew for flexibility if we run into a pad issue or takeaway constraint. Each crew will do about 100 wells per year, maybe a little more. A couple hundred wells ahead of five fleets is the right carry DUC balance. As crews get more efficient and complete more wells, it either means releasing crews to keep the same well count or building 20 to 30 more wells for the year in total—still within our original guidance window. We took the momentum from Q1’s beat and kept it going through the rest of the year.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Analyst of Barclays. Your line is open.

Analyst, Analyst (Barclays)

Good morning. On crude oil marketing, 1Q pricing was a bit stronger. Can you remind us of your exposure to premium price indices and the marketing strategy on oil?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

Strategy-wise, we learned from the Permian takeaway crisis of 2018 that we needed to use our balance sheet to get crude to the biggest markets—Corpus Christi and Houston. We invested in EPIC, Gray Oak, and Wink to Webster. Those made our investors money and protected Diamondback Energy, Inc. commercially. We have about 300 thousand barrels per day going to Corpus on EPIC and Gray Oak, and another 100 thousand barrels per day going down Wink to Webster into Houston refineries. We are exposed to water-based pricing and even have a small contract with dated Brent exposure. That has helped us. This is a good playbook for gas; we are a little behind there because oil is 90%+ of revenue, but the next trend is to improve gas marketing.

Analyst, Analyst (Barclays)

On the acquisition line item in 1Q, there were just a few hundred million. Are you doing any organic acquisitions or bolt-ons at good pricing?

Jere W. Thompson, CFO

There were a couple of small acquisitions in our backyard in the Midland Basin. In that line item, we also have capitalized interest and capitalized G&A, which made up the vast majority. Add a couple of small acquisitions and about $50 million to $75 million in leasehold bonus as well.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Phillip J. Jungwirth of BMO. Phillip, your line is open.

Phillip J. Jungwirth, Analyst (BMO)

Good morning. Can you talk about how you are viewing Viper ownership and what is optimal for Diamondback Energy, Inc.? You sold some in the quarter, still own 39%. With a stronger free cash flow outlook, there is less need for divestitures. Is there a minimum level of ownership you would maintain, and how does that play into capital allocation?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

We sold down a little Viper ownership as a follow-on from the drop-down where Diamondback Energy, Inc. took a lot of Viper stock. We could have taken more cash then, but instead waited and sold a little last quarter. We are done selling Viper shares at Diamondback Energy, Inc. The growth opportunity set for Viper is significant. Could Diamondback Energy, Inc.’s ownership be reduced through dilution? Possibly. But no desire today to monetize more shares. In a few months, both companies will be very well positioned from a balance sheet perspective to do anything from an M&A perspective, which is where we wanted to be.

Phillip J. Jungwirth, Analyst (BMO)

In the 2022–2023 upcycle, private operators drove an outsized share of rig additions and oil growth. How would you characterize privates’ ability in the Permian to respond to higher oil prices now versus a couple of years ago, given implications for tightening OFS markets?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

Important question, and it has factored into our calculus. In 2022, Endeavor (now part of Diamondback Energy, Inc.) went from 2 rigs to 15; CrownRock (now part of Oxy) from 2 to 8; EnCap North (now part of Aventa) from 2 to 6; DoublePoint/Double Eagle (now part of a combination of us and Exxon) from 1 to 6. Big private-side moves back then. Much of that Midland private activity growth has been consolidated. There will be private growth—the model has shifted to smaller asset packages developed quickly, farm-ins to larger operators, and growth in Northern New Mexico—but by our math that is 20–30 rigs, not 100 like 2022. They will move quickly, but the volume impact will be much smaller than 2022.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Scott Andrew Gruber of Citigroup. Scott, your line is open.

Scott Andrew Gruber, Analyst (Citigroup)

Good morning. In light of the impact of privates, how do you think about Diamondback Energy, Inc.’s volumes over the next five to ten years on an organic basis? Do you think about modest growth, stepping higher during periods of elevated prices and then maintaining that new level so net-net you are growing? Or, when prices are soft, do you pare back activity and let production fade?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

The operator with the best inventory quality, lowest cost structure, and longest inventory depth has the right to grow organically and create shareholder value. We have been looking to hit the organic growth accelerator for a while but did not have macro support. If mid-cycle pricing is a little higher—say $70–$75 WTI—I think a couple percentage points of organic growth adds to NAV and long-term free cash generation. Importantly, this new plan generates more free cash flow per share at any oil price above $60 than prior plans. In a $70+ world, that is advantageous to shareholders long term.

Scott Andrew Gruber, Analyst (Citigroup)

On capital efficiency, it appears to improve on the margin with the updated plan, but it is hard to separate the DUC draw impact from adding rigs in the Barnett where you are still ramping learnings and efficiency. How would you describe the underlying trend in capital efficiency as you lap the DUC draw into 2027?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

DUC draws and Barnett timing are noise. Below that, the team is executing. We set records on drilling two-, three-, and four-mile laterals. Wolfcamp D development: we set a goal of $300 per foot for drilling, down from $360 per foot last year—we are already at $300 per foot. Barnett drilling needed to be below $400 per foot to target $800 per foot well costs to be competitive with the base program—we have already put a well in under $400 per foot. Efficiencies continue to improve above ground, and the big move is drilling and completing better wells subsurface. Those are the long-term drivers of capital efficiency.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next call comes from the line of Derrick Whitfield of Texas Capital. Derrick, your line is open.

Derrick Whitfield, Analyst (Texas Capital)

Good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Regarding your share buyback and guiding principles, where do you view mid-cycle pricing now in light of the Middle East conflict and the risk premium? Also, what are you seeing in degradation of inventory quality across the Permian, clearly beyond Diamondback Energy, Inc.?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

We are long-term bullish. Within three months, we went from a projected largest oversupply (which was debatable) to the largest undersupply, and we are only two months in. It is hard for us to move off our mid-cycle framework—mid-$60s WTI, mid-teens NGLs, and $3 gas with Waha differentials. Energy security is becoming more important, meaning more landed storage and the U.S. barrel being more important than ever. We think the U.S. shale cost curve is moving up. Operators have done a good job with efficiencies, but geologic time catches up and there are signs of degradation in productive quality across the U.S. Our job is to keep Diamondback Energy, Inc. at the low end of the cost curve, with top-tier inventory depth and quality and low execution costs. We are very well positioned. It is too early to raise mid-cycle pricing.

Derrick Whitfield, Analyst (Texas Capital)

As a follow-up on the Barnett, referencing the play outline, how large could you reasonably grow this position beyond the 200 thousand you are highlighting? You have one of the most prolific buyers in Midland working with you.

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

We announced the position after we felt we had a solid base of what we could get. We continue to add in Q1 on a small basis. Now we are doing a lot of trades. Big operators have Barnett positions, and we are all looking to block up to three- and four-mile laterals. There is a lot of Midland-based private equity building six- to eight-section positions that likely come to market. I think the position will grow, and we have the sizable base to continue growing it.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Analyst of Pickering Energy Partners. Kevin, your line is open.

Analyst (Kevin), Analyst (Pickering Energy Partners)

Good morning. Can you provide color on the cadence of net lateral footage per quarter throughout the year and the lateral length per well? We assume the additional 200 thousand lateral feet is back-half weighted.

Daniel N. Wesson, COO

It will be pretty evenly weighted toward the back half. We went up to around 6.2 million lateral feet, so we are looking at probably 1.5 to 1.6 million per quarter for the back half of the year. Q1 was one of our lighter quarters on lateral length—about 11.5 thousand feet. For full-year 2026, we still expect to be at 12.9 thousand feet, ramping through the back half.

Analyst (Kevin), Analyst (Pickering Energy Partners)

As a follow-up, any updates on the surfactant tests?

Daniel N. Wesson, COO

We had a big push toward the end of last year to get tests in the ground and try different surfactant combinations across rock types to understand drivers of well performance. Those tests are in, the team is studying results, and we are refining the process. We plan the next deployment early this quarter.

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

One thing I would add: we tested about 50 wells last year. On average, we saw a 100-barrel-per-day uplift, but some wells were up 400–500 barrels per day and some were zero. We are figuring out what we did right in the 400–500 barrel-per-day wells and what we did wrong in the zeros. This is version 1.0. I think the basin and Diamondback Energy, Inc. are on the cusp of technological breakthroughs related to increasing recoveries past primary development. That will likely be a mega theme over the next four to six years. That is why we have held as much acreage as we have. We have some of the best oil in place in the basin and some of the smartest people working on this—potentially extending the basin’s life by a decade or two.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Analyst of Truist. Your line is open.

Analyst, Analyst (Truist)

Morning. Thanks for the time. On the return-of-capital framework and pursuing growth this year—which makes sense—what is an upper bound of oil production growth for Diamondback Energy, Inc., assuming a green light on the macro? Is 5% a fair assumption, or could it be higher?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

I do not want to get into a specific number. We have already grown low single digits year-to-date. I do not think there is a lot of investor appetite for a large CapEx bump and more than mid-single-digit growth. It is early, there is a lot of noise, and no one is sure how the macro unfolds. We are keeping our cards close, coming out with a good Q1 forecast, and will see how the year unfolds. Investor appetite is not for the “go-go” days of 2017–2018 with multiple CapEx increases and mid-double-digit growth. We will keep it steady and capital efficient and take the macro quarter by quarter.

Analyst, Analyst (Truist)

Any update around your surface position in light of a potential new market entry there—specifically the power project?

Jere W. Thompson, CFO

As Kaes alluded to, we are making meaningful progress with our partners. We view the power and data center opportunity as a unique way to use our natural gas in-basin at advantaged pricing. Once we finalize a project, we will discuss more details, but it continues to move forward.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next call comes from the line of Charles Arthur Meade of Johnson Rice. Charles, your line is open.

Charles Arthur Meade, Analyst (Johnson Rice)

Good morning, Kaes and team. On the acceleration of CapEx, can you give us an inside-baseball account of how you came to that decision—board latitude versus a quick telephonic/Zoom meeting? I am looking for insight into how you operate as a fast mover in a volatile tape.

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

Our board is very nimble for its size—13 members who are responsive and move quickly when the decision is obvious. We also got advice from Jamie Dimon last year: communicate with your board often and tell them everything. We decided to overcommunicate through this crisis. The crisis kicked off a week after earnings; we had set the budget. We sent three or four notes to the board in March to update how we were thinking. Then it was a simple meeting ahead of earnings to make this decision. The board had resounding support for the plan. That is the inside baseball on how Diamondback Energy, Inc. works with its board.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Leo Paul Mariani of Roth. Leo, your line is open.

Leo Paul Mariani, Analyst (Roth)

There has been discussion of weak Waha prices in 2Q. Could there be short-term negative volume impact for the company? Are there wells with a lower oil cut you might choke in for a period given how bad gas prices are?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

At these NGL prices, we think negative $3 Waha basically cuts out the value of your NGLs. Worse than that—negative $4 to negative $6—you start to eat into the value of oil production. Oil is $100 a barrel, not $60, so the math on shutting in oil barrels is different, but I do think shut-ins are happening in the basin. In areas like New Mexico, with tighter restrictions on midstream development and flaring, that is probably happening. For us, back in October when Waha blew out due to maintenance, we shut in 2 thousand–3 thousand barrels per day of production for a period and then brought it back. I would bet we are around that range today with Waha as weak as it is. It is not impeding new development, particularly with the amount of financial hedges we have.

Leo Paul Mariani, Analyst (Roth)

That is helpful—it sounds like you still have flow assurance and this is more of an economic decision.

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

That is right. Every molecule we have produced has moved; it is just moving at a negative price.

Leo Paul Mariani, Analyst (Roth)

On growth, your oil guidance is a bit open-ended with 520 thousand-plus. You did around 520 thousand in 1Q. If the oil environment holds, should we think about that plus a little growth in the second half?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

That is fair. We will take it quarter by quarter. If we are outperforming the plan, we will hold activity and produce more oil into a market that needs it.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press 11 again. Our next question comes from the line of Analyst of Wolfe Research.

Analyst, Analyst (Wolfe Research)

Thanks. Back to the balance sheet—Jere, with no variable dividend in the capital return structure, is it inconceivable that your net debt could go to zero over the next two or three years? Would you allow it to go to that level?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

That would be a good problem to have. We will be transferring a lot of value from the debt side of the NAV to the equity side over this quarter. We will take things quarter by quarter. If this oil price environment persists and the stock continues to go up, we will allocate less to buybacks and continue to put cash on the balance sheet. This is a cyclical business. We want the ability to pounce on opportunities when the cycle turns—M&A, buying back a lot of stock, or leaning on the balance sheet to buy back stock. The key is flexibility and long-term value creation. We want to get to zero debt and one share outstanding—it will be a race between those two with free cash generation over the coming decades.

Analyst, Analyst (Wolfe Research)

Follow-up on non-operated positions: what are you seeing from your non-op and how could that influence consolidated growth? Perhaps a Viper question, but any color on private-side rigs and non-op activity?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

Diamondback Energy, Inc. carries very little non-op. Viper sees about half the wells in the basin. Early signs show nothing major on permitting, but field discussions suggest rigs are getting picked up on the private side. If we had to give a Permian rig count forecast for year-end, we are probably up 25–30 rigs from today.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from the line of Analyst of Melius Research. Your line is open.

Analyst, Analyst (Melius Research)

I know things are fluid and you are taking it quarter by quarter, but the market has significantly changed in the last 60 days with structurally higher oil. You raised guidance for this year. How are you thinking about out-years and setting up the company to continue to grow at a mid-single-digit rate or not in 2027, 2028, 2029?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

We have to think long term. If we are in a higher-for-longer world, an advantaged company with advantaged inventory like Diamondback Energy, Inc. should answer the call for production growth—so long as it maintains capital efficiency. That would shift the business from a steady-state bond-like free cash generator to a free-cash-flow-per-share growth generator over the next few years, into the decade. It is early; we will see what the macro holds. It does feel like the world changed a lot since our last call.

Analyst, Analyst (Melius Research)

As you think about your inventory depth versus peers, you are in a leading position. How would you characterize your position versus peers given the longevity you have?

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

We are fortunate to have incredible inventory quality and duration. Within Diamondback Energy, Inc., we are always looking for the next stick—organically (Barnett generation, Upper Spraberry development) and inorganically. This machine is built to do significant transactions like Endeavor, but also the sub-$20 million deals. We do not want a unit in the Midland Basin to trade hands without Diamondback Energy, Inc. knowing it could be in our hands. We are set up for both small bolt-ons and larger transactions.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much. I am showing no more questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Kaes Van’t Hof for closing remarks.

Kaes Van't Hof, CEO

Thank you, everybody, for your interest. We are always available to answer any questions. Please reach out to the number or email on the notices.

Operator, Operator

Thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.