Earnings Call Transcript
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC (FCX)
Earnings Call Transcript - FCX Q1 2020
Operator, Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for being here. Welcome to the Freeport-McMoRan Conference Call, where management will discuss updated operating plans in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the financial results for the first quarter. I would now like to hand the call over to Ms. Kathleen Quirk, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please proceed, ma'am.
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Freeport-McMoRan conference call. Earlier this morning, we reported our revised operating plans and our first quarter operating and financial results. A copy of today's press release and the presentation materials are available on our website at fcx.com. Our conference call today is being broadcast live on the Internet. Anyone may listen to the call by accessing our website homepage and clicking on the webcast link for the call. In addition to analysts and investors, the financial press has been invited to listen to today’s call. A replay of the webcast will be available on our website later today. Before we begin our comments, we’d like to remind everyone that today’s press release and certain of our comments on the call include forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially. We’d like to refer everyone to the cautionary language included in our press release and presentation materials and to the Risk Factors described in our 2019 Form 10-K. On the call today is Richard Adkerson, our Chief Executive Officer; Red Conger is on; Mark Johnson is on from Indonesia; we’ve got a number of other senior executives on the phone as well and they will be available to participate in our Q&A session. Our comments today in the prepared materials will be principally focused on our plans and our outlook and how we are addressing current market conditions. I'll briefly summarize our financial results for the first quarter and then turn the call over to Richard who will be reviewing our revised plans. As usual, we'll open up the call for Q&A after our prepared remarks. We announced revised operating plans as you've seen in the press release; we've had a series of cost reductions and capital expenditure reductions. We've also reduced our copper production volumes by 400 million pounds in response to market conditions in an effort to reduce our costs and capital expenditures. In terms of our first quarter results, we reported a net loss attributable to common stock of $491 million in the quarter that was $0.34 a share which included $256 million or $0.18 per share associated with inventory valuation adjustments and other items that are detailed in our press release attachment. Adjusted net loss attributable to common stock totaled $235 million or $0.16 per share in the first quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA or earnings before interest, taxes and depreciation for the first quarter totaled $189 million. We've included a reconciliation of our EBITDA calculation on Page 43 of our slide materials. Our first quarter sales of copper and gold were slightly higher than our January 2020 estimates. We sold 729 million pounds of copper during the quarter and 144,000 ounces of gold that mostly reflected higher production from PT Freeport Indonesia, partially offset by lower sales volumes in the Americas. Our average realized price in the first quarter was $2.43 per pound, which was 16% lower than a year ago average price of $2.90 per pound. The realized price for gold in the first quarter was just over $1,600 per ounce, which was 24% above the first quarter of the prior year. Our consolidated average unit net cash costs were also lower than our expectations, averaging $1.90 per pound of copper in the first quarter, while the estimate going into the quarter was about $2 per pound. Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $600 million, which included approximately $300 million for projects aimed at increasing production and reducing unit costs in Indonesia as well as our Lone Star Project in the U.S. and Arizona. We ended the quarter with a cash balance of $1.6 billion and consolidated debt of $10 billion. We had no borrowings under our $3.5 billion revolving credit facility and have significant liquidity as we manage volatility during 2020. I'd now like to turn the call over to Richard who will be referring to our slide materials.
Richard Adkerson, CEO
So good morning, and thank each of you for participating in today's call. I hope you and your families are well and staying safe during this very difficult time for everyone. Our Freeport family extends sympathy and support to all those that are impacted by the virus and also by the very significant economic hardship that has been brought upon so many people. We appreciate particularly the global health care providers, government authorities, and others who are on the frontlines, working often at personal peril to protect our people and all people around the world. At Freeport, we are prioritizing the health and safety of our workers while we support the communities where we operate, in order to serve customers with the ongoing requirements of copper. Copper is an essential metal for the global economy, even in today's world. The plan we're announcing today is a comprehensive response by our company following a carefully planned process to develop proactive actions, first to save our people and our business, and then to protect the value of our assets for the long-term. I am very proud of our Freeport team for the response they developed in a very short period during a time when the world faces this unprecedented pandemic crisis. Our team has responded in the right way with the right attitude of commitment and cooperation. Our revised plan will target a year-end 2020 financial liquidity that, at current copper prices, actually exceeds the liquidity that we had targeted in our annual plan announced just a quarter ago, and that was when copper prices were over 20% higher than today’s price. What we had to do with this plan was offset the loss of approximately $1.7 billion of cash flow from lower prices. We have done this by reducing spending, revising mine plans, and taking a series of financial initiatives. Importantly, we have contingency plans to preserve our business if the copper price were to fall further. This plan will carry us over to brighter days for our company when production volumes increase substantially with the ramp-up of our new underground mines in Indonesia and as the world economy recovers, whenever that might be. Our Freeport team has done fabulous work by making tough decisions in developing the plan while we protect our workers and treat them fairly. I personally cannot thank our team enough for the work done in developing this plan. We fully recognize the uncertainties we all face regarding the duration and extent of the pandemic and its impact on the growing economies. Having said that, I am confident the actions we are taking will allow Freeport to navigate this period of uncertainty and position our company for long-term success. Starting with Slide 3, I emphasize again that the health and well-being of our people is our number one priority. As we protect our workers, we are addressing the current financial challenge using our experience and successfully responding to past financial crises. We have an existing playbook that we are following, but we're also taking into account current conditions and uncertainties. We are now undertaking aggressive proactive actions focused on protecting liquidity by cutting costs and maximizing cash flows. The situation is dynamic and uncertain; we’re prepared to make further adjustments to preserve liquidity and protect long-term values if we have to. Our company benefits in a major way from having extraordinary long-lived and durable reserves and resources. I am confident that the actions we're announcing today and our preparations to respond further as required will make these assets even more valuable for our shareholders in the future. Turning to Slide 4, we have implemented prudent health protocols in all of our locations. We do what we can to avert the spread of coronavirus in our operations. We are monitoring and following all the guidelines of international health organizations and governments. The effort is being led by a dedicated team of medical advisors and providers. Our procedures are robust and forward-looking, proactive rather than reactive. Our international medical providers are administering tracing, quarantine procedures on an ongoing basis. We have severely restricted, and in most cases, eliminated travel, and group meetings have been eliminated. Working virtually, and all work that can be done remotely is being done remotely. In our operations, physical distancing in mining processing is being achieved. Ours is not like a factory where people are working totally together. Truck drivers, shovel operators, and other operators can work with social distance. At the site, we provide housing, meals, and transportation. We are being diligent with sanitization, isolation of workers showing symptoms, and treating workers who have potential illness with state-of-the-art equipment and facilities. Our management of worker health, to date, has been very effective. We've experienced fewer than 50 confirmed cases to date across our global workforce, which approaches 70,000 workers. But knowing just how quickly this virus can spread, we remain diligent and proactive in protecting our people. Slide 5 addresses our commitment to the communities where we operate. This commitment is longstanding and unwavering. These communities are the homes for our workers and their families. They are essential to our long-term success. Across the globe, we are supporting communities during this time of great need. We are prioritizing critical needs caused by COVID-19. Slide 6 presents the global span of our workforce, including employees and contractors. While many countries are dealing with the pandemic in varying degrees, our workforce is adhering to global health standards, focusing on their personal safety and the well-being of those around them. Our global team of workers is critical to our company's success, and we fully recognize that. I personally appreciate the dedication, commitment, and cooperation during this challenging time. Slide 7 notes that copper is a metal strategic to the world and its importance is growing. Freeport is a long-time leading supplier of copper to the global economy. We are working closely with customers to meet their needs in today's world, protecting our business so we can reliably serve customers in the future. Copper is essential to the global economy not only in times when the economy is growing, but also in times like these when health care, water, food supply, communications, and technology are critically important. On Slide 8, I want to note that many of you have probably seen recent reports on the growing recognition of copper's antimicrobial properties. Copper can play a significant role in preventing transmission of viruses and bacteria. This has been known for a long time. Our industry has supported research efforts and education efforts for the public to understand the benefits of copper in fighting the spread of infections in normal times. The current pandemic is bringing to light what copper can achieve in improving public health. Studies have demonstrated that copper can destroy viruses like COVID-19. Copper's use in health care equipment and facilities, and in public places, will undoubtedly grow significantly when the cost of copper, which has been a barrier in the past, is measured by the enormous cost to society that is being brought on by this pandemic. Freeport will be at the forefront of leading the world to understand the benefits, and the greater uses of copper globally. To learn more about this, I refer you to the Copper Development Association's website, and you can read articles about it almost every day in the press. On Slide 9, we talk about just how quickly the market conditions change. It seems like a lifetime. When FCX reported its fourth quarter results, the global economy was showing clear signs of progress. The phase one deal with China was encouraging after trade issues had burdened copper prices for the previous 18 months. The copper price was then $2.85 a pound and seemed poised to move higher. Now we have copper prices today about $0.50 per pound lower than in late January. And in recent times, we've seen copper trade down to near $2 a pound, which was totally unexpected. Meanwhile, gold prices have risen dramatically, benefiting our operations in Indonesia. Oil markets are in turmoil. Diesel fuel, which roughly accounts for 8% of operating costs, has declined roughly about 50%, while the dollar strengthened, lowering our U.S. dollar costs for expenditures in current local currencies. Many other input costs have also dropped. The rapid change in markets required us to move quickly and aggressively digest our plans. Freeport's 2020 revenues were already abnormally low because of the transition of Grasberg to underground mining. We completed mining the massive Grasberg high-volume open pit in December 2018. Today, PT-FI is effectively managing the coronavirus self-challenge. PT-FI is progressing at its own schedule with the ramp-up of its massive underground mines. This has been the critical strategic initiative for our company for many years. Continued progress with this ramp-up will place Freeport in a much stronger cash flow position even if copper prices stay low in 2021 and beyond. The gold benefit of Grasberg's production is a significant advantage. On Slide 10, we talk about the transition that Grasberg made to underground mining and the current ramp-up. We incorporated into our original plans going into 2020 proactive steps to protect our balance sheet and liquidity. Over the past four years, we have cut what were then crippling debt levels in 2016 in half. During 2019, we extended our $3.5 billion bank credit facility, currently undrawn for a new five-year term extending to 2024. Kathleen and her team have also worked with our banks to obtain amendments to our bank credit revolving covenants, giving us flexibility during the Grasberg ramp-up. In recent months, we've had two bond offerings raising a total of $2.5 billion in long-term notes at attractive rates, which we used to refinance debt maturities. Today we have no significant near-term debt maturities. Slide 11 now addresses the aggressive actions we are now taking. Our team undertook a comprehensive and iterative process involving site management across the company. Red Conger and his team in the Americas were facing the challenge this time around of not being supported by cash flows coming out of Indonesia. Cash we're generating in Indonesia is going into continuing to develop the underground. So what they had to do for each operation, each individual mine, was to develop a plan to maximize near-term cash flow at low prices while protecting long-term values. All the savings reflected in our new plans that we’re reporting today are supported by detailed analysis. We left no stone unturned. This was not a top-down exercise. The objective was set at the top, but our operating teams developed these plans and now own them. They are committed to executing them, and our senior management team and our administrative organizations will support them. Everybody is on board. Our Board of Directors has deferred common stock dividends in 2020, prioritizing this. The Board will review dividend actions regularly, with the goal of restoring dividends when conditions improve. The chart on the right summarizes the combined impact of these actions. Based on our January plan at $2.85 copper, we would have ended the year with a consolidated cash position of $1 billion before returning to significant cash flow generation in 2021 with Grasberg's ramp-up and beyond. Despite this $0.50-a-pound current reduction in copper prices, our revised plan at $2.30 copper, as we're announcing today, projects $1.7 billion in cash at year-end and an increase in liquidity without raising new capital. This is a major accomplishment. Three to four weeks ago, we wouldn't have anticipated. We have stress-tested our plans at lower prices to ensure we have a plan to bridge us through 2020 regardless of prices and put us in a strong position as we enter 2021, when we will be adding large-scale, low-cost volumes for Grasberg. Significantly, we've reserved a plan to double EBITDA in 2021 from this year's levels without higher copper prices. Slide 12 illustrates the impact of this. Execution of these plans will set us up for significant improvements in 2021, partly from changes in copper prices, projecting a 26% increase in copper sales volumes in 2021 and a 75% increase in gold volumes. The outlook takes into account approximately 400 million pounds of Americas production that we are idling in this plan. Our projections include that remaining idle in 2021, which we're adjusting if conditions improve. Our unit cost is projected to decline, with 2021 EBITDA expected to double from 2020 levels at $2.30 copper and $1,600 gold. The cash flow benefit from potential higher gold prices is noted, as well as the potential for a return of copper prices to the levels we saw earlier this year. Looking at Slide 13, we note that our management team has extensive experience in managing tough market environments. The leadership teams across the company are seasoned and have been effective and successful in past downturns. Prices are different, but in each of our past experiences, Freeport has come out stronger. We have a management structure and a team that is collaborative, experienced, and decisive. We never cut corners on important issues involving worker safety or environmental obligations. We keep a long-term focus on our license to operate around the world that we have worked so hard to earn. We adjust to market conditions quickly, developing contingency plans for further actions as required, doing this on a site-by-site basis, making planned safeguards to protect long-term values. This is a real hallmark of this Freeport organization. Highlighted on the slide are actions we took in 2008, 2009 crises. Prices reached critically low levels in 2015 and 2016 when our company was heavily burdened by debt from our discontinued oil and gas business. Note where share prices were for FCX during each of these crises and the improvement within two years that followed. We're all committed to successful execution of these plans. We're intensely focused on restoring value in our shares. Now I want to provide you with a brief update on our operations and projects. Slide 14 addresses Cerro Verde. As reported previously, the Peruvian government declared a national emergency, which was just extended to May 10. This government order affects Cerro Verde and other mines in Peru. Our Cerro Verde team is doing great work in managing smaller-scale operations during this period while we protect the health of a much-reduced workforce and as we work with the government to explain our health protocols so that we can position Cerro Verde for a return to normal operations. Cerro Verde has been operating in excess of designed capacity for several quarters, chiefly with mill throughput of over 400,000 metric tons per day, leading up to March 16. We are currently operating at about one-third of this level. Our plans are developing and ramping up Cerro Verde late in the second quarter and returning to higher production levels in the second half. Returning Cerro Verde to normal production is important to the government of Peru and the community of Arequipa. Cerro Verde has been a large contributor to the national and local economy and is one of the largest employers in the region. Slide 15 covers our new mine that we are developing in Eastern Arizona, adjacent to our Safford mine, very close to Morenci, called Lone Star. We're nearing completion of this new mine, and we will commence production in the coming months. The project is 90% complete. Capital is largely behind us. We're advancing on schedule with pre-stripping, which we expect to complete in the third quarter. We've started to ramp up placement of ore on the newly constructed leach pad at the nearby Safford operation. The project is forecast to add 200 million pounds of copper per year initially, with opportunities to increase production over time with low capital intensity. While we have great expansion opportunities at Lone Star, we are deferring those until market conditions improve. We remain excited about the long-term opportunities for Lone Star and believe it will be a significant future cornerstone asset for Freeport in the United States. At Grasberg, I am very pleased to report that our Grasberg underground ramp-up is proceeding on schedule. Great cave propagation for the Grasberg Block Cave and the Deep MLZ mine continues to go well. We have achieved important milestones to establish large-scale production from these high-grade, low-cost blocks. We have been consistently meeting or exceeding key performance indicators. I congratulate Mark Johnson and our PT-FI team for their noteworthy performance in advancing this massive undertaking effectively. During the first quarter, production from the Grasberg Block Cave and Deep MLZ together averaged over 37,000 tons per day, slightly in excess of our forecast at the beginning of the year and over 44% higher than prior quarter rates. By the end of the first quarter, we were producing at a combined rate of over 40,000 metric tons per day. Rates will be increasing continually as we go forward. We added almost 50 new drawbells at the two mines during the quarter compared with 34 in the fourth quarter. We now have 250 open drawbells, which are the rock funnels that allow us to gain scale in ore production. These are high-grade, large copper and gold ore bodies. It's noteworthy that the first quarter mill rate throughput was only about half of last year's first quarter, yet PT-FI's quarterly metal production was similar to last year's first quarter. This demonstrates that these underground ore bodies can produce scale because of their grades. At full rates, the production of these two ore bodies is projected to average over 1.3 billion pounds of copper and 1.3 million ounces of gold per year. In the earlier years, we'll have higher grades, and that will yield higher metal production. Average net unit costs are expected to average less than $0.20 a pound in the first five years of full production rates; that is notable and rare for large-scale operations in the global copper industry. Our PT-FI team deserves compliments for their extraordinary performance in managing the health situation while continuing to execute on this major project. We have a workforce of about 30,000 people, a large portion of whom work in the highlands, where they live in dorms and eat in mess halls. Our team is supported by world-class medical providers. They've been proactive with a series of actions to help us prevent any major outbreak at this remote location. Our testing and screening activities in one of the most remote places in the world are much more advanced than what we are seeing today in many communities in the United States. Our PT-FI development operating team is supported by FCX's global world-class technical organization. PT-FI in Indonesia is benefiting now from the changed ownership structure that was put in place in late 2018, where we now have a 51% shareholder that's a state-owned company named MIND ID, and we now have a much more positive relationship with the government of Indonesia after our December 2018 IUPK permit. Unlike years past, now all stakeholder interests in our business in Indonesia are aligned. Slide 17 talks about the smelter that we committed to construct as part of the IUPK. We are facing delays with this project. It's located far from our operations in Papua, in a densely populated area of Eastern Java. We have notified the government of delays because of worker restrictions and supply chain issues, and we're in discussions to extend the December 2023 project deadline. We're also reviewing with the government other issues related to the smelter that might be mutually beneficial to PT-FI and the government. We do not expect to incur capital expenditures of significance in 2020 on the smelter as a result of the delays that we're experiencing. Slide 18 looks at copper markets. Copper prices have dropped due to weaker demand from the declining GDP, of course. On the other hand, supplies of copper have been impacted by the pandemic. Copper mines and development projects are being curtailed or canceled. The scrap market, which provides a large part of refined copper to the market, is currently very weak. We are encouraged by data now coming out of China, indicating an emerging recovery. There is a strong likelihood around the world that ongoing stimulus actions will help economies recover. Despite the near-term uncertainties, we are not trying to base our business on our ability or anyone else's to predict these near-term situations. The long-term outlook for copper remains highly positive, and in some ways, is being supported by the supply curtailments we're now seeing. Copper is strongly supported by fundamentals and plays an essential role in the overall global economy; it is a major element in efforts to reduce carbon emissions globally. The world is increasingly turning to electronics in many respects, extending from electric vehicles, charging stations, to 5G and other technical factors, which will require more copper. Supplies of copper continue to be limited. No one can predict with confidence when economies will recover. Copper is a highly attractive commodity to move and is well positioned to move substantially higher as economic conditions improve. Freeport will be a major beneficiary of this movement. I've included Slide 19 as an infographic developed by the Copper Development Associations that does a great job illustrating the broad range of uses of copper in the economy. I will refer you to it and ask you to take a look at it when you have a moment. Slide 20 will present our reserve and resource position. We have long-lived and valuable resources that will be available for all organic growth development for decades to come. The volumes we've elected to curtail in the current market will become more valuable in the future as economic conditions improve. Before turning to Kathleen, who will review the financial outlook in more detail, I want to close with the following: Freeport is foremost in copper. Looking beyond the current troubled conditions, copper is widely considered the best-positioned major commodity from a supply-demand standpoint. Freeport's portfolio of copper assets is large and high quality. We are an established industry leader, and we operate the mines that we have an interest in, which are among the largest in the world. By operating all of our assets, we gain valuable synergies and flexibility across the portfolio to deal with times like these and to take advantage of the brighter days to come. Our assets are long-lived and durable, with embedded options for reserve and resource growth. We have strong franchises in the United States, South America, and Indonesia. Near term, Freeport is in an advanced stage for a major increase in margins and cash flows beginning in 2021, apart from copper price movements and extending for 20 years and further. We have industry-leading technical capabilities and a strong track record of execution over many years. We have earned the trust and respect of our partners, our customers, our suppliers, financial markets, and, most importantly, our workers, communities, and those countries where we operate. Our block caving experience is one of the most extensive and longest-standing in the history of the global mining industry. We have been operating block caves in Indonesia since the early 1980s, and we have an important history of block cave operations in Colorado. This is a critically important factor as we transition Grasberg to the largest block caving operation in the world. Our experienced and battle-tested management team has demonstrated capabilities to perform in good times and bad. We are confident in our ability to improve our metal as we've done in the past. Slide 22, I want to close by talking about our people. Again, I want to recognize the strength and resiliency of the entire Freeport family, who inspire me every day. I'm proud to be part of this team. We are all motivated and committed to persevere and achieve success for all of our stakeholders. Kathleen, I'll let you take over.
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
Okay, thank you, Richard. I'll turn to Slide 24 and run through some of the details of our operating plans and financial outlook before we begin the Q&A session. On Slide 24, we present a summary of our revised operating plans. As Richard was saying earlier, as we develop the new plans, we focus on reducing operating costs and capital expenditures while maintaining safety, reliability, and the integrity of the long-range plans. In the Americas, we reduced mining rates across the board by about 20% in total. What this did was reduce all elements of our operating costs and the capital higher mining rates would require. We note that this material is still there and available to us in the future as market conditions warrant. At our molybdenum mine in Colorado, the Climax mine, we're going to reduce the mining rate there by about 50% to better match our supply and current market conditions. In the Americas, we've reduced capital by $500 million, which included the capital associated with our innovation initiatives that we previously estimated at $150 million of capital in 2020 that would have added production going forward. We have suspended that project, but we are still utilizing the data analytics tools and agile approaches to drive cost performance and other initiatives that do not require significant capital. We believe these tools will be very useful to us as we drive efficiency. We'll use them rather than driving higher production levels; instead, we'll use them to manage costs and improve recoveries in our Americas mines. In Indonesia, our mine plans are basically the same as our prior plans. We incorporated updated market rates for energy and the favorable impacts of the stronger dollar on our foreign-denominated labor costs. We also tightened our belt to reduce spending in a number of areas throughout the operation. We have combined these savings to reduce costs in Indonesia by about 10% for 2020. We also benefit from a higher gold price, which our prior plan was based on $1,500 gold, and we've adjusted this plan to $1,600 gold. As you know, gold is currently over $1,700 per ounce today. Our capital spending in Indonesia was reduced by over $200 million for 2020; about half of this is the timing of installation of planned mill upgrades, which we deferred by a year as a result of the pandemic and current constraints on international contractors. We've also reduced spending forecasts associated with the proposed smelter in Indonesia that Richard referred to earlier due to project delays and the current discussions with the Indonesian government. Looking at Slide 25, and this is also in our press release, it's a financial summary of the revised plan for 2020 compared to the January plan we prepared in conjunction with our earnings call in late January. Given the sequencing of our mine plans during the year, we expected the first quarter to be the weakest of the year. We also expect, under the current plan, for capital expenditures to exceed our operating cash flows in the second quarter. But as you can see here on the slide, we expect our operating cash flows for the full nine-month period in the balance of this year to exceed capital expenditures by $400 million. That's a $200 million improvement in cash flows for the full year compared to our previous plan, despite a $0.50 decline in assumed average copper prices. In addition to the cost and capital reductions, our plan reflects a number of cash flow benefits associated with reductions in materials and supplies inventories, an acceleration of tax refunds, and a series of other items to improve our cash flow. Importantly, we boosted liquidity during the year compared to our prior plans, and our net debt is lower. Richard mentioned we've gone through a process of stress-testing these plans at various prices and believe we have a plan that will bridge us through 2020 and put us in a strong position as we enter 2021 with the addition of large-scale, low-cost volumes from Grasberg. Turning to Slide 26, we show our sales outlook for 2020 through 2022. As you'll note in this slide, the sales volumes are about 400 million pounds per annum lower than our previous estimates. This reflects the curtailments we're making in the Americas, reducing our mining rates. It also includes a small change in 2022 associated with the deferral of the upgrade of the mill project, which slightly impacts our mine plan for the ramp-up of the Deep MLZ. You see that gold sales are similar to our prior levels. There's a small change in 2022 related to the timing of the mill upgrade. Molybdenum sales are down about 10% from our prior estimates, reflecting the changes at the Climax mine and the reduction in byproduct moly resulting from mine plan changes in our Americas copper mines. On Slide 27, we present a summary by region of our unit net cash costs. We separated the first quarter from the rest of the year so you can see the impacts of our actions. Net unit cash costs on a consolidated basis in the first quarter were $1.90 per pound. This was better than our plan, which projected just over $2 in the first quarter. Our first quarter was expected to be our highest in the year. But as you'll see, what we've done with our cost structure in the balance of the year is driving a significant decline in net unit cash costs compared with the first quarter. Cash costs in the nine-month average would be $1.44 per pound, which is $0.46 a pound or 24% below the first quarter average. We expect to average for the year $1.55, taking into account the first quarter results and move to a unit cost level of about $1.20 per pound in 2021. We show at the bottom of the page the makeup of our cost by region. You can see energy on these pie charts, which includes diesel and electrical power. That combined represents the diesel and other sources of energy, which account for 17% of our consolidated costs. Diesel represents about 8%, and our diesel prices have declined more than 50% since the start of 2020. Moving to Slide 28, you've seen us present EBITDA and operating cash flow in this format over many quarters. This is designed to show what our EBITDA and cash flow generating capacity is using the average volumes and costs for 2021 and 2022, holding gold flat in this scenario at $1,600 per ounce and molybdenum at $9 per pound. We vary the copper prices for 2021 and 2022 between $2.50 and $3. You can see that at $2.50 copper, we would generate over $5 billion in EBITDA and over $3 billion of operating cash flow. As prices move, we could generate over $7 billion at $3 copper and over $4.5 billion of operating cash flows. We present sensitivities on the right side of the chart, so you can make your own adjustments to different copper or gold market outlooks. We expect, as Richard was talking about, to manage our situation from a financial standpoint in 2020. Before getting into 2021, we will generate very significant increases in cash margins and cash flow. We've cut spending. I'm now on Slide 29. These cash flows we generate will be available to fund capital expenditures and have excess cash flows for other initiatives, including debt reductions and other initiatives we have. We cut capital expenditures from $2.8 billion to $2 billion, and we show the details of where that came from. For 2021, we're currently estimating $2.3 billion in capital expenditures, which is about $100 million lower than our prior estimate. The focus of our plans to date, our revised plans to date, has been mainly on capital expenditures in 2020. We're continuing to review 2021, and we're reviewing those for potential additional reductions depending on market conditions, which we'll evaluate in the coming months. Our plans appropriately cut spending and capital while preserving the strong outlook we have over the next several years. I will just close on our financial policy that we covered throughout the call. We remain focused on safeguarding our people and our business, and maintaining strong liquidity and balance sheet strength as we manage uncertainty during the pandemic and the economic impacts associated with it. Under current market conditions and priorities, our Board does not expect to declare dividends in 2020. This will be evaluated regularly, and as we successfully execute our plans and enter 2021, we expect to be in a much stronger position with increased cash flow and enhanced flexibility to consider shareholder returns. Thanks for your attention today. And operator, we'd now like to open the call for questions.
Operator, Operator
Our first question comes from Alex Hacking with Citi.
Alex Hacking, Analyst
Good morning, Richard and Kathleen, and I hope you guys are staying safe and doing well. Let me ask a couple of questions on Grasberg, if that’s okay. The first question would be, how are the supply chains holding up there? Are you able to access consumables and other things that you need? Or are you having to run down stockpiles? Secondly, on Grasberg. Congratulations on all the steps that you’re taking there to keep everyone safe. But in a worst-case scenario where there is a significant outbreak, what is the contingency plan? It’s obviously very difficult to safely halt underground mining there, so maybe you could discuss a little bit about what the contingency would be in a worst-case scenario. Thank you very much.
Richard Adkerson, CEO
Okay. Thank you for your question. Mark Johnson, would you comment? Mark is actually in Papua now at Grasberg. Can you comment on the supply chain issues and how we're dealing with it?
Mark Johnson, President, Indonesia Operations
Yes. To date, we haven't had any problems. Nothing has been interrupted. We always have to maintain a supply up in the highlands. But no issues on our end. Obviously, we have a large community up here, and that's one of our concerns, but no problem. Like some of the places in the states, we haven't had a run on any of our grocery stores or medical supplies; all those key things, plus everything necessary for production and development—we haven't had any issues. As for the contingency plans, one of the things we’ve looked at in a worst-case scenario, as you mentioned, are the mines that we could need to have some consideration. At Big Gossan, we could shut down or reduce operations if we needed to. It's a stope mine. But we've worked with our consultants and understand what sort of minimum draw rates we would need in our block caves to keep them going. We could drop our personnel significantly to just do the minimum draw. For instance, in the Deep MLZ, we currently operate eight loaders, roughly the same in the GBC. That is our core production. So the core production requires a relatively small number of people and equipment. A lot of our effort is associated with the continued expansion and construction to achieve those out-year targets we've set. Our contingency plan, in the worst-case scenario, will involve minimizing those activities and focusing on the production activities.
Operator, Operator
Your next question is from the line of David Gagliano with BMO Capital Markets.
David Gagliano, Analyst
Hi, thanks for taking my questions, and congrats on the comprehensive update, the quick actions, the cost improvements, the cash savings—everything that you highlighted today. Clearly, you've been through this before. My question regards the upcoming years. It looks like, from my side, the reductions in copper volumes in 2021 and 2022 are mainly linked to the AI initiative CapEx cuts, at least for North America. So, my question, just to verify—do the '21 and '22 copper volume targets assume that the North American operations are back to normal rates, or do they assume they continue to operate at the roughly 20% lower rate? Under what underlying market conditions do you plan to ramp those operations back up to normal again?
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
Dave, it’s Kathleen. Our mining rates put in here, with the current 20% reduction in 2020, will continue into part of 2021. We have some mines that are starting to ramp up, but we still have idled production during that time. When we were pursuing our previous plans for the America’s concentrator, we were increasing both mining and milling rates. We’re not doing that at this point. So we could, if market conditions improve dramatically, take a long, hard look at that because, as you know, this is not a light switch that can simply be turned on and off. But we could start bringing back production over time and gradually increase our mining and milling rates again. So this assumes that we remain in a curtailed mode at most operations through the first part of next year, with some operations increasing mining rates while others do not. It’s a mixed bag, but nothing in our prior plans suggests we can't increase production, though it may delay the timing to achieve those volumes. But as we have discussed, the volumes are still there and could be added over time if market conditions warrant.
David Gagliano, Analyst
Okay. As a related follow-up, could you provide us a sense of when you say market conditions warrant? What are the conditions that would warrant a full ramp-up of operations?
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
Well, our prior plan at the beginning of the year was based on the context of a copper market reaching $2.75 to $3. As Richard was saying, the groundwork was in place for potentially higher prices going forward. You would have to see prices move back to those levels along with more economic certainty around the global economy. But we’ll be very disciplined about executing these plans, focusing intently on costs and capital in the near term to ensure we can preserve our financial position during 2020. Then, as we approach 2021, we will start evaluating market conditions and whether to restore full mining operations at that point.
Richard Adkerson, CEO
And Dave, realistically, this situation is not likely to turn on at one point. Different countries are going to be in different situations. Things will occur step-by-step, and uncertainties will arise along the way. So it would be fair to say that given our overriding objective of protecting the long-term values of our assets, we will be very measured in how we respond.
Operator, Operator
Your next question is from the line of Chris Terry with Deutsche Bank.
Chris Terry, Analyst
I just had a follow-on to David's question. On Slide 26, I understand North America was flagged for possible adjustments, but in terms of South America—appreciate Cerro Verde is offline currently. Can you just discuss the 2021, 2022 impacts of South America? I know you have a bit of leaching happening at Cerro Verde. Is that the carryover effect of lesser mining into 2021? Or is that—what is happening there? I'm just trying to understand the mechanics of 2021, particularly.
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
Yes. We also reduced production at El Abra. We deferred a significant capital item there, so we're reducing our mining rate at El Abra, and that also contributes to the lower production in South America. However, we do show—under our plans, we expect Cerro Verde's production to increase in 2021 compared to 2020 levels. Our El Abra mine will be about flat like it was in 2020 during that period, resulting in a significant reduction from our prior plans.
Chris Terry, Analyst
Okay. That's helpful. Just one more if I may. I wanted to follow up on the comments on the smelter. So, the concept is still at the $3.5 billion level, but you just pushed back the timeline for 2020. You're still working through negotiations; is that the right framework to consider it?
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
Richard, do you want me to take that one?
Richard Adkerson, CEO
Let me ask you to repeat the question. Unfortunately, I had a little static in my line here.
Chris Terry, Analyst
Sure. I just wanted a little bit more detail on the smelter in terms of the concept. I think what you’re saying is it’s still around the $3.5 billion level; you’ve just pushed out the timeline for 2020 and are in the process of renegotiating it. Is that correct?
Richard Adkerson, CEO
I wouldn't characterize it as a renegotiation. We reluctantly decided that we would have to commit to build the smelter in order to resolve long-standing issues with the government of Indonesia regarding the extension of our operating rights. That was one key concession we made along with facilitating the government through a state-owned company acquiring 51% of the shares. As you know, this was achieved principally by Rio Tinto deciding to sell their joint venture interest to the government. Of course, in return, we secured clear-cut operating rights and fixed fiscal and financial terms through 2041 while establishing a positive new working relationship with the government. We have made that commitment, and we will execute on it. The facts are that we cannot proceed as planned because of the worker restrictions at Gresik, where we need the smelter located, and because of supply chain issues with contractors. Meanwhile, the government in Indonesia, like governments around the world, is struggling with state revenues due to lower economic activity. We are engaging with the government to see whether this new circumstance might present a mutually advantageous way for PT-FI and the government to reconsider what we are doing with the smelter. Throughout all this, we are being clear that we made this commitment, and unless the government agrees to some changes, which current circumstances might lead them to consider, we are proceeding with fulfilling our commitment to build a smelter.
Operator, Operator
Your next question is from the line of Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.
Carlos De Alba, Analyst
Hopefully, everyone has been fine. So my question is first on working capital. The company generated cash flow from working capital reduction or lower levels of working capital in Q1. How do you see that going forward during the remainder of the year? My second question, if I may, is regarding the positive surprise for the second quarter in a row in terms of gold production or shipments out of Indonesia. Can you provide a bit more context on what is going on there? And whether there’s room for continued upside?
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
With respect to the working capital question, we are projecting a large working capital source in 2020. As mentioned, that is one of our initiatives here, to release cash from the balance sheet through materials. As we curtail mining operations, we will be able to use existing inventories instead of needing to buy new consumables to a certain degree. So we'll have a reduction in materials and supplies. We'll also bring forward some tax refunds that were projected over the next several years into 2020. There are a number of other cash flow initiatives we've developed over the last several weeks in the context of our revised plans. Therefore, we are showing a large source of working capital throughout the year.
Carlos De Alba, Analyst
So this will continue in Q2 and Q3, above and beyond what we saw already in Q1 then?
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
Right. Yes.
Richard Adkerson, CEO
Let me just add that, again, our thanks go out to the team. Kathleen and her team have done a great job with financing. Steve Higgins, who heads up our administration, is doing an excellent job managing worker issues and HR, and other matters. Danny Hughes, who heads up our global supply team, is doing a fabulous job as well. We have great relationships with our suppliers, often being one of their largest customers, in many cases the largest. So, as we face this challenge, we sit down with our suppliers, and we find ways to reduce costs and deal with payment terms. It's the same with our customers—we understand each other's problems and have worked closely together over the years. Some of the cash generation you're seeing is due to those long-term relationships, and it showcases how diligently our whole team is finding ways to generate cash, which we will continue to do on an ongoing basis.
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
In terms of the question regarding gold, we did experience some higher grades of gold, which we still project are consistent with our plans. You'll have pluses and minuses as the grades measure against those plans. We did achieve some higher grades, and Mark, I don't know if you want to comment any further about gold grades and recoveries as we move forward.
Richard Adkerson, CEO
Yes. I want to add that Kathleen has been noting how strong our recoveries have been, often exceeding plan in many aspects. So Mark, could you elaborate on that?
Mark Johnson, President, Indonesia Operations
In the first quarter, we noted that significant difference we saw in both copper and gold grades was in the Deep MLZ. We were, essentially, on or just above target regarding the tonnes. As for the copper and gold grades, we were about 18% above plan. This was driven by mining the Deep MLZ for the cave management. We've been very aware of how to pull the cave, and our intent has been to draw it evenly. We have a great system now where we can track every single bucket, knowing exactly where it came from. In the first quarter, by managing the cave daily, we ended up with better grades; it just happened to work that way. To clarify, it isn't a change in our model; it's good execution of our cave plan that yielded results. Our grade at Deep MLZ was 1.9% copper and 1.9 grams per tonne gold, while the plan was around 1.6 range. Recoveries have also been favorable, so we continue to see strong performance.
Operator, Operator
Your next question is from the line of Chris LaFemina with Jefferies.
Chris LaFemina, Analyst
Hi, Richard and Kathleen, thank you for taking my question. It's good to see the improvements in your balance sheet and liquidity over the last few years. That’s very different from the state you were in 2015. Good to see the operational flexibility as well—it looks like you are generating positive free cash flow at current spot prices, which is encouraging. My question relates to how some of the operational changes you’re making today might affect the long-term performance of your assets. I recall that in 2008, some mining companies revised their mine plans, reduced their CapEx in response to low prices, which helped in the short term, but led to extended periods of higher costs and higher sustaining CapEx. Is that something likely to happen at Freeport? Or is it just that you are taking these short-term measures without necessarily jeopardizing the longer-term structural integrity of your assets?
Richard Adkerson, CEO
Thanks, Chris. The term jeopardizing is one that does not apply here. There may be some long-term effects from not spending now, which could delay when certain production will occur due to deferred capital costs. You see this at Grasberg, where we are delaying some spending on incremental crushing capacity at the mill for the time being, which will impact future timing. Regular updates will be provided each quarter as we monitor this. It’s not about destroying resources; it’s about the timing of their production. Red, do you have something you’d like to add?
Red Conger, CRO
Yes, Richard, you're right. One specific example would be El Abra, where we're slowing down production to push out capital expenditures and a new leach pad that's required for future production. So, when conditions improve, we will make that investment and be able to increase those volumes if market conditions warrant.
Chris LaFemina, Analyst
As a follow-up, it will be interesting to see whether companies that lack liquidity take actions to protect their balance sheets that will lead to less production for an extended period. Do you think this downturn results in an extended period of lower-than-expected global copper production as a result of the initiatives taken today? In which case, could we see higher prices in an upturn than we would have otherwise?
Richard Adkerson, CEO
There’s no doubt about that. The supply situation for copper is critical, and it was previously going to be tested. Now, with delayed development projects and curtailments being made that we've discussed, the market is affected, and shortages could emerge that will certainly support copper prices. Having been in situations without liquidity, we recognize how critical it is to maintain financial flexibility—this is something we learned during our previous challenges.
Operator, Operator
Your next question is from the line of Oscar Cabrera with CIBC.
Oscar Cabrera, Analyst
Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Richard, I just wanted to explore a bit more the cost reduction that your team achieved. First of all, congratulations to the team on such a quick turnaround. Many mining companies are not providing this level of detail in such a short time. Your site production and delivery costs originally forecasted at $2.04 a pound are now reduced to $1.80. I’d like to know if you could provide us a rough estimate of how much lower costs can go. You talked about lower diesel costs as well as depreciation on exchange rates worldwide, so I'm interested to know what percentage accounted for the reduction.
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
Oscar, this is Kathleen. It was a combination of many factors. In the Americas, removing production affected all labor and mining costs. Additionally, we benefited from lower energy costs, which was about $0.07 a pound compared to our prior forecast. Energy costs remain lower since we prepared this forecast and are probably down about another 15% to 20%. We're using about $1 per gallon of diesel in our projections, impacting around $0.07 on Americas costs. In the U.S., this business is predominantly in US dollars. The currency benefit we witnessed was mainly in Indonesia, where we reduced costs about 10%. However, the key driver in Indonesia is volume, and that's what will keep cash costs down. In the past 5 years, we projected about $0.30 a pound for production costs in Indonesia, but now, we are estimating roughly $0.20. The transition from Grasberg to the underground has brought savings as we have been conducting a zero-based budgeting process to drive down overall costs in Indonesia for quite some time.
Oscar Cabrera, Analyst
If needed, year-end 2020, could costs be further reduced, i.e., are there additional sources of reductions such as cutting more production to lower the present $1.80?
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
We need to consider cash flow positives. Therefore, cutting production further at $2 copper may not be advisable. However, in terms of second-half cash flow, our Americas segment generates cash flow. Prices would need to decline substantially to warrant further reductions. We acted quickly, and we remain flexible and ready to adjust operations as market conditions evolve.
Operator, Operator
Your next question is from the line of John Tumazos with John Tumazos Very Independent Research.
John Tumazos, Analyst
Thank you very much for taking my question, and for your service to the company. Regarding the promising antimicrobial properties of copper—considering applications for linens and masks, I suppose that would use wire rod and wire products in line with infrastructure. However, for countertops, tables, chairs, and public applications, a sheet would be needed. There’s a limited supply of foil or strip in electronics and only limited architectural roofing applications. Would you be willing to contribute capital for a sheet rolling mill, or a JV with other copper producers or fabricators, or apply for stimulus money that the government might grant to ramp up supply? This could be a multimillion-tonne market.
Richard Adkerson, CEO
John, we've lost part of your question, but I think I understand your inquiry.
John Tumazos, Analyst
Do you want to consider building a hot strip mill for copper sheets?
Richard Adkerson, CEO
The more likely path forward is for our company, and hopefully, I feel confident that other companies will join us, is to provide the technical basis for these innovations and then work together with entrepreneurs and venture capital firms to fuel these new industries. We have tried this in the past but faced barriers due to costs associated with refurbishing and so forth. Now, the world has changed, leading to increased awareness of the utility of copper. So we believe that there will be opportunities for markets, and we will work with the industry to help lead this movement for the benefit of copper markets and, most importantly, for public health due to the growing infections. Our industry has long-supported research on the benefits of copper, and we're going to take the leadership role in demonstrating this.
Operator, Operator
Your next question is from the line of Lucas Pipes with B. Riley FBR.
Lucas Pipes, Analyst
Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on a very impressive response, especially under these difficult circumstances. I wanted to follow up on Chris’s question regarding trade-offs between the current cuts and future production. Is it feasible to quantify the impact to production for the Americas, starting around 2023?
Richard Adkerson, CEO
It’s too early to provide that level of detail. We are in a state of uncertainty at the moment. Our focus is primarily on bridging the gap caused by the reduced cash flows resulting from lower copper prices. We will assess how to structure things as we go forward, but we are equipped to manage our response and be flexible regardless of conditions—positive or negative.
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
Right now, our plans indicate fairly flat production over the next five years for the Americas. As Richard said, this is going to be dynamic as we assess the situation moving forward.
Lucas Pipes, Analyst
I appreciate that. You've done a tremendous job responding to this unpredictable environment. My second question is about your relative cost position. There has been a lot of supply taken offline due to safety precautions. What is your relative cost position today, and do you anticipate broader supply responses from copper miners due to price declines?
Richard Adkerson, CEO
We have mines that range in cost structures from the lowest end of the industry to relatively high-cost sites due to our portfolio strategy when combining Grasberg with Phelps Dodge years ago. This combination provides us with the ability to manage lower margin mines in good times and to generate profits while extending resources by scaling back production during leaner times. When we calculate averages, it provides insights, but the business is managed site by site. What you're observing today are layered actions aimed at reducing high-cost production and driving down costs overall. Even within sites like Morenci, production elements can adapt based on need. The average is observed, but management is focused on individual sites.
Kathleen Quirk, CFO
Another important aspect is that we benefit from very long-life reserves. Aside from the Grasberg reinvestment program we’re executing now, once Grasberg ramps into production, CapEx will decrease, driving healthy cash flow. We have a long reserve profile with additional resources. This scenario minimizes the risk of reinvestment for other shorter life mines. In our plans with Red and the Americas team, we focus on cash costs while evaluating capital expenditures associated with these needs.
Operator, Operator
I will now turn the call over to management for any closing remarks.
Richard Adkerson, CEO
It's been a long call, and I appreciate your attention. This meeting length is warranted given the uncertainties we are currently facing. We wanted to ensure we provided the best possible update on our company’s situation. We are satisfied with our position in a challenging and uncertain environment. Our guard remains up, and we won't let down, as we are unsure of what we might face next. I thank you for your attention. If you have follow-up questions or comments, please reach out to David Joint, and we will respond. I hope all of you stay safe and that your families and friends do as well. It's a time for reflection on what this situation is doing to many people around the world, and our hearts and prayers go out to everyone. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.