Earnings Call Transcript - FIX Q4 2023

Operator, Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Q4 2023 Comfort Systems USA Earnings Conference Call. At this time, our participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Julie Shaeff, Chief Accounting Officer. Please go ahead.

Julie Shaeff, Chief Accounting Officer

Thanks, Justin. Good morning. Welcome to Comfort Systems USA's fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings call. Our comments today, as well as our press releases, contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the applicable securities laws and regulations. What we will say today is based on the current plans and expectations of Comfort Systems USA. Those plans and expectations include risks and uncertainties that might cause actual future activities and results of our operations to be materially different from those set forth in our comments. You can read a detailed listing and commentary concerning our specific risk factors in our most recent Form 10-K as well as in our press release covering these earnings. A slide presentation has been provided as a companion to our remarks. The presentation is posted on the Investor Relations section of the company's website found at comfortsystemsusa.com. Joining me on the call today are Brian Lane, President and Chief Executive Officer; Trent McKenna, Chief Operating Officer; and Bill George, Chief Financial Officer. Brian will open our remarks.

Brian Lane, President and CEO

All right. Thank you, Julie. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the call today. Our teams achieved an amazing finish to 2023 with exceptional results, including unprecedented growth, earnings, and cash flow, as well as a surge in new bookings. We earned $2.55 per share this quarter compared to $1.54 a year ago. Current quarter revenue was $1.4 billion, with same-store growth of 18%. During the fourth quarter, both our mechanical and electrical businesses grew and increased margins to drive our annual results to new heights. Construction finished an already strong year on a positive note, including notable profit and activity increases in our modular business. Service also continued to grow as we continue to benefit from ongoing service investments. Backlog is $5.2 billion, up by more than $1 billion from last year, and we had a remarkable sequential increase of $870 million even with strong revenue. Demand remains supportive and is especially robust in our industrial sector. We are carefully selecting work that has good margins and good working conditions for our valuable workforce. Cash flow for the quarter was superb at $149 million, and we finished 2023 with an extraordinary $550 million in free cash flow. Earlier this month, we closed two acquisitions, Summit Industrial and J&S Mechanical. Summit is a specialty industrial mechanical contractor serving the advanced technology, power and industrial sectors. Summit performed off-site and site-based construction, including process piping, equipment setting and large pipe rack trusses. Summit is a trusted supplier to some of the world's largest advanced technology, power and industrial companies and is currently deployed on several major chip fabrication projects. J&S provides mechanical construction services to commercial and industrial sectors across the Mountain West region of the United States and works on many of the largest and most technical construction projects in that area. We are thrilled to have both of these companies as part of the Comfort Systems USA family. I will discuss our business and outlook in a few minutes, but first, I will turn this call over to Bill to review our financial performance. Bill?

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Brian. Good morning, everyone. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $1.4 billion, a 22% increase, while same-store revenue increased by 18% or $195 million. Full-year revenue for 2023 increased by 26% compared to 2022 to $5.2 billion. For the full year, our Mechanical segment revenue increased by 24%, including a big contribution from our modular business. Our Electrical segment increased by an even larger 31%, and we now have a $1.3 billion electrical business. Overall, our same-store revenue increased by 23% or $931 million. We are facing tough comparables. However, our best estimate is that we will achieve same-store revenue growth in 2024 in the mid-teens, with growth weighted a bit more heavily to the first half of the year. Gross profit was $280 million for the fourth quarter of 2023, a $68 million improvement compared to a year ago. Our gross profit percentage improved to 20.6% this quarter, compared to 18.9% for the fourth quarter of 2022, driven by improved electrical margins. The quarterly gross profit percentage in our Electrical segment improved to 22.9% this year as compared to 18.2% last year. Margins in our Mechanical segment also increased in the quarter to 19.8% as compared to 19.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Our mechanical segment includes our modular business, which operates at notably lower margins than our remaining businesses. For the full-year 2023, gross profit increased by $249 million; our annual gross profit margin was 19.0% in 2023 as compared to 17.9% in 2022. For the full year, segment margins were similar with mechanical gross margins of 19.0% for the full year, while electrical was 19.1%. Fourth quarter EBITDA increased 42% to $141 million. Our full-year 2023 EBITDA increased by an even greater 48%, as our full-year EBITDA was $499 million. As we look to 2024, we are optimistic that overall EBITDA margins will continue to trend in the strong ranges that we achieved in 2023. Gross margins will also continue to be strong, but gross margin percentage may be more variable in 2024 in light of the effect of amortization and certain purchase adjustments arising from our two large acquisitions. SG&A expense for the quarter was $160 million compared to $132 million in the prior year. And as a percentage of revenue, SG&A expense was consistent again at 11.8%. On a same-store basis, SG&A was up approximately $22 million due to inflation and ongoing investments to support much higher activity levels. For the full-year, SG&A expense as a percentage of revenue was 11.0% in 2023, down from 11.8% for 2022. Fourth quarter operating income increased by 50% from last year from $80 million in Q4 2022 to $120 million for the fourth quarter of 2023. With improved gross profit margins, our operating income percentage increased to 8.9% this quarter from 7.2% for the prior year. Our full-year operating income was $418 million, a remarkable increase of $165 million. OI margin increased from 6.1% in 2022 to 8.0% in 2023. Our year-to-date tax rate of 16.7% included an incremental benefit of $10 million or $0.27 of tax gains that related to prior years. Although individual items have affected our tax rate lately, we estimate that a normalized tax rate for us is approximately 20% to 22%. After considering all these factors, net income for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $92 million or $2.55 per share. This compares to net income for the fourth quarter of 2022 of $55 million or $1.54 per share. Our full-year earnings per share for 2023 was $9.01. Excluding prior year tax gains in both periods, earnings per share increased to $8.74 per share from $5.29 per share in the prior year, and that's an increase of 65%. Full-year 2023 free cash flow was a remarkable $551 million. We continue to benefit from advanced payments for work that we will fund and complete in the upcoming quarters. 2023 operating cash flow exceeded our earnings by an astounding $300 million. Over the coming quarters, we expect pre-bookings and equipment advances to normalize, creating some cash flow headwind. In the meantime, these early collections have allowed us to invest heavily and fund acquisitions from current cash flows, while at the same time significantly lowering our debt and interest costs. During 2023, we spent $95 million on capital expenditures, almost double the amount we had spent in the prior year. The increase includes the build-out of three vast new modular production facilities and the purchase of mini vehicles to catch up from COVID. In 2024, we estimate that our CapEx spend may be roughly $65 million to $75 million, around the midpoint of the spending levels over the past two years. Our substantial cash flow allowed us to pay down our revolving credit facility to zero and to reduce our overall debt by $212 million over the course of 2023. Again, while investing in unprecedented levels of CapEx, buying back shares, increasing our dividend, and fully funding both of our acquisitions, the purchases of Eldeco and PECO from cash flow. In 2023, we purchased 139 shares of our common stock at an average price of $153. Finally, as Brian mentioned, we acquired Summit Industrial and J&S Mechanical at the beginning of February. Our best estimate is that Summit will contribute annualized revenues of approximately $375 million to $400 million and EBITDA of $35 million to $40 million. We also estimate J&S will have annualized revenues in the range of $145 million to $160 million and EBITDA of $12 million to $15 million. In light of amortization expense, these acquisitions are expected to make a neutral to slightly accretive contribution to earnings per share in 2024 and 2025. Both of these companies will be included in our mechanical segment. That's all I got, Brian.

Brian Lane, President and CEO

All right. Thanks, Bill. I'm going to discuss our business and outlook. Our backlog surged at the end of 2023 to a record $5.2 billion. Since last year at this time, our same-store backlog has increased by $913 million, around 23%, and the increases were broad-based. During the recently completed fourth quarter, our sequential backlog increased by $870 million, and virtually all of the increase was same-store. Our pipelines remain strong. Our revenue mix continues to trend towards data centers, life science, food, chip fabs, and battery plants. Those industrial customers accounted for 55% of total revenue in 2023, and they are major drivers of pipeline and backlog. Technology, which is included in industrial, was 21% of our revenue, a substantial increase from 13% in the prior year. The technology sector will continue to grow with the recent acquisition of Summit Industrial, as they have several ongoing and large semiconductor projects. Institutional markets, which include education, health care, and government, are also strong and represent 26% of our revenue. The commercial sector remains active, but it is now a smaller part of our business at about 19% of revenue. The majority of our service revenue is for commercial customers. So the proportion of our overall construction revenue from commercial has become relatively small. Construction was 80% of our full-year 2023 revenue, with projects for new buildings at 55%, while existing building construction was 25%. For the first time in 2023, Comfort Systems USA achieved $1 billion of annual service revenue. Service was 20% of our total revenue, with service projects providing 9% of total revenue and pure service, including hourly work, providing 11% of revenue. 2023 service revenue was up by 11%. And with our continuing strong margins, service is a great source of profit and cash flow for us. At Comfort Systems USA, our core purpose is to build legacies with our people, customers, and the companies who join us. To accomplish this, we strive every day to be the best organization in the world. For a craft worker to build a successful career for construction, service, and administrative professionals to grow and thrive, for customers to meet their crucial building and service needs, and for any company in our industry to join with the assurance that their people will be respected and nurtured and that their legacy will be perpetuated and built upon. We believe that our commitment to those principles, to our people and their legacies, has been and continues to be the lynchpin of our success. Safety, quality, and innovation remain at the forefront of our operations. We constantly strive to improve and grow our operations to enable sustainable and efficient building environments to improve the productivity of our diverse workforce and to acquire great complementary businesses. Thanks to our careful and relentless investments in existing and newly acquired businesses, we have the crucial skills and capability to help meet our country's surging needs for mechanical and electrical experts and to build and service buildings, including to grow data capacity for artificial intelligence, to increase our nation's capacity to build its own chips, manufacture its own medicines, supply batteries, and provide health care resources for our aging population. As we look ahead, we remain optimistic about the prospects of service and construction across our vast markets. With our backlog over 20% higher than even the robust levels of the prior year, and with persistent strength across our markets, we believe that we can continue to grow and invest in 2024. Our number one priority is to preserve and grow the best workforce in our industry. And so, as always, I want to close by thanking our over 15,000 employees for their hard work and dedication. I'll now turn the call back over to Justin for questions. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

And thank you. And our first question comes from Alex Dwyer from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Alex Dwyer, Analyst

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Good morning, Alex.

Alex Dwyer, Analyst

Hi, so I wanted to ask about the backlog increase in the quarter and specifically the modular orders. And was that one order or multiple orders? Was it one customer or multiple customers? And do you think there's the opportunity to see more of these larger modular orders as we go into 2024?

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Alex, if you look at the sequential backlog increase, about a little over 60% of that was an increase in modular, so that was around $800 million. If you look at the year-over-year increase in backlog, about 20% of it was modular. So we had some big bookings in the fourth quarter of last year, which was actually more than all of our sequential increase last year, and then big bookings in the fourth quarter of this year. And of course, over the course of the year, we burned down and performed a lot of that modular. We're back to higher-than-ever levels of modular backlog with these new bookings. But 80% of our year-over-year backlog increase is broad-based. We just couldn't be happier with the breadth, the composition, etc. And as far as additional bookings, absolutely. Right now, we're taking as much as we can, but the people who are buying these services from us tell us they would like to give us more.

Alex Dwyer, Analyst

Got it. And then the press release mentioned an increase in modular profitability. I don't think we get the disclosures for this. But how was the margin performance this year in modular? And should we expect continued margin expansion in that business this year?

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

So modular margins for the full year were slightly higher than last year, and they are at very good levels. I mentioned earlier that the gross profit per modular is lower than that of our other businesses due to a high component of materials and passthrough. Additionally, the work we do in the field is carried out by licensed electricians and certified medical gas technicians. The skills required in our plants are high, but labor for these roles is not as difficult to source. We are pleased with those margins. Regarding margin expansion in modular, we would be content if it remains the same. We are always aiming for margin growth, but after a quarter like this, it's challenging to discuss improvements.

Brian Lane, President and CEO

We're really happy with the modular business.

Alex Dwyer, Analyst

Got it. And then just last one on the margin outlook for 2024. I think we're talking EBITDA margins more so this year than gross margin. There's the deal amortization. I think inflation could be a tailwind to margins this year. And then maybe like a mix versus the early stage versus the later stage jobs could be like a swing factor. Can we just talk about the puts and takes in margins this year?

Brian Lane, President and CEO

Yes. If you look at this overall, I just want to comment on the margin performance we've been getting over really since 2016. We've been consistently having margins between 18% to 20%. Leave the amortization aside for a minute. I am personally thrilled with the level of performance we're getting and executing our work. If I were running this work, I would be really happy myself. So I consider that we'll keep going.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

I think you made all the right points. The one thing I'll just refine a little bit for everyone. If you think about it, the amortization is always big at Comfort because we buy companies on a fairly regular basis. And the companies we buy come with a lot of backlog. For example, Summit will roll into Comfort with something like $400 million of backlog. The accounting rules require us to put a value on that backlog and amortize it as an expense. In addition to things like customer lists and trade names that all businesses have, our amortization is higher than most. Obviously, it's non-cash; the money is gone; it's never coming back. So in a way, it's not sensible to worry about it because you own what you own today, and it's going to earn what it earns. But we're required to reduce the sort of the earnings that we present and the margins we present to you guys for that. The reason we wanted to call it out is, last year, we had fewer acquisitions than we have had over the last three or four years proportionate to the size of Comfort Systems. So amortization was probably the lowest and definitely the lowest proportionate to the size of the company that has been in a long time. Well, on February 1, we did our largest deal ever. We did another top five or six deal ever. Amortization is going to come back very notably over the next 18 months. Obviously, that pushes down gross margins because it's an expense.

Alex Dwyer, Analyst

Thank you.

Operator, Operator

And thank you. Our next question comes from Julio Romero from Sidoti & Company. Your line is now open.

Julio Romero, Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Good morning.

Julio Romero, Analyst

Maybe staying on gross margins for a second. You mentioned the same-store revenue for the year should be looking like first-half weighted. How about the gross margin cadence? Should that also be first-half weighted? Or how would you have us think about that?

Brian Lane, President and CEO

No. I mean if I'm excluding what Bill just went through, just in terms of purely operational, I think we'll be pretty consistent at the gross margin level that we've been at. They'll fluctuate up and down quarter-to-quarter, but I think we'll be in that 18% to 20% range for sure.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

The effects on gross margin from backlog amortization will be immediate. There is also the possibility of purchase adjustments later in the year that could introduce some variability in certain quarters. Overall, the business is expected to perform well, but there may be some additional fluctuations in the gross margin figures.

Julio Romero, Analyst

Okay. Got it. What does your capacity look like?

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

The noise can go either direction, just for the record, that noise can go either direction. You shouldn't just hear, it's all bad. Now the amortization will always be an expense. But anyway, go ahead, I'm sorry.

Julio Romero, Analyst

Great point. I'm considering that there is also a significant amount of cost passthrough in modular as well, and depending on whether it is weighted towards the first half or the second half, it could impact the timing of things.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Yes.

Julio Romero, Analyst

Maybe just turning to capacity. How does that look for you guys? Can you continue to take on orders and how far out are you booked these days?

Brian Lane, President and CEO

Well, in terms of our capacity, we're in good shape right now. The backlog is probably a little bit bigger, so we're in good shape for this year for sure. We're winning a fair amount of work about 30% of our backlog into 2025. We're spending a lot of time making sure we can execute properly, selecting the right work, etc. In terms of capacity, the workload we have, the workload we see, we're in good shape right now.

Julio Romero, Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And then last one for me is a little bit of a broader question, but industrial and institutional are making up a more significant portion of new construction, as you said earlier, Brian. I would imagine a good majority of those are owner-occupied buildings, not necessarily spec building. So what are you hearing from those customers in regards to costs? Are these owner-occupied projects just having to swallow a higher cost of capital and tougher project economics just to get Comfort to take on the project?

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

I don't think the big tech and pharma companies are concerned about the cost of capital. They have the funds and want to invest. Regarding pricing, we are increasing our charges because we need to pay our employees well, and they deserve it after working for us for many years, in some cases for decades. We are definitely facing higher prices. We are also taking on more risk by committing to projects when we are already at capacity. It’s crucial to obtain pricing that reflects that risk and enables us to provide excellent service to our customers. If a building project was planned two years ago and is being constructed now, it will cost significantly more than originally budgeted. This trend is present in many sectors of the economy, but it's particularly significant in areas that require skilled labor.

Julio Romero, Analyst

Helpful. Thanks very much.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks.

Operator, Operator

And thank you. Our next question comes from Adam Thalhimer from Thomson Davis. Your line is now open.

Adam Thalhimer, Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys. Great quarter.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Adam.

Adam Thalhimer, Analyst

Just since there's so much interest, do you mind just talking high level about data center demand?

Brian Lane, President and CEO

I'll go first, and Bill can comment. But data center demand is still strong. Everything you read or hear, Adam, it still has a lot of legs to it. Right now, we see no letup in the opportunities presenting themselves. I think it's going to be good for a number of years.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

So you look at Tech whip from 13% to 21% of our revenue. We're doing a lot of chip and some other stuff, but that is overwhelmingly data centers. We're seeing data centers not just in our modular business; they're very big in Texas and our electrical business. They're very big in the mid-Atlantic, Virginia. We're not disappointing people; we're favoring those who have been partners with us for a long time. The demand for data centers is going to force the build to be pushed out over time. Modular is if you're a big data hyperscale provider, you need to do it modular, stick-built, third party, repurposing, up-adding reconfiguring buildings to support more, every way that they can do it. They want to do it. It reminds me of how we hire people; we hire people every possible way we can think of. They're building data centers every way they can think of. For the foreseeable future, if you can help them meet those needs, especially if you do a good job, there seems to be no end to that demand. That demand was big even before artificial intelligence; artificial intelligence is incremental.

Adam Thalhimer, Analyst

Right. And then you said three new modular facilities last year. That was higher than I didn't realize that. I thought it was one. What would be your thoughts about expanding modular capacity further?

Brian Lane, President and CEO

I mean, you get to see what the demand is and see what kind of commitments we get from our customers. We've got the three up and running now. We'll see how I think it plays out, which customers would want us to do it.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Round numbers, we did about a 400,000 square foot facility in North Carolina, and we did a 400,000 and a 200,000 square foot facility here in Houston. These sizes are great, but these are also buildings that have much bigger volume. They're taller, so you can have options sometimes or build it at levels. Remember, these are volumetric; you're building buildings that get stacked on top of each other. This new space is great for our guys. When we came into this space, we took the lessons from deploying robots and robotic arms and the kind of equipment that can make it more efficient and faster. So far, it's going very well. I think we definitely have conversations with existing and new customers about what would get us to do that. We probably won't make serious decisions about that before the middle of the year. The opportunity is definitely out there right now. One of the things about Comfort is we want to do a good job for people. The one thing we never want to do is promise more than we can deliver at an absolutely industry-standard level. Our number one consideration in taking work is can we do it and do it right. Nearly as important is this work going to be good for our workforce. Is it with people who treat them fairly and work with them where there is good efficiency so they can be successful? Is the geography onerous for them or good for them? A huge consideration is retaining your workforce, and you retain your workforce by considering what's going to be important to your workforce. So that's a very important consideration with our best operators.

Adam Thalhimer, Analyst

Okay. Super helpful. Last one, backlog expectations. I'm just curious if could backlog continue to build in Q1? Or are you basically, I would imagine you're kind of full for the 2024 construction season?

Brian Lane, President and CEO

Yes, we're in really good shape on backlog this year for sure. You can still grow it because projects are getting a little longer. But back to what Bill just said, if the work is good with our good customers, we're going to see what we can do to fill it in. There's still plenty of stuff to look at, Adam; there's no shortage of opportunities.

Operator, Operator

And thank you. Our next question comes from Josh Chan from UBS. Your line is now open.

Josh Chan, Analyst

Hi, good morning, Brian, Bill, and Julie. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe could we contextualize your margin strength in the quarter for a quick minute here. I appreciate the guidance that you gave into next year. So what are some of the factors that drove the margins this quarter? And can those factors pretty much continue into 2024?

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

The factors were remarkably broad-based; it's really just good execution, good work at reasonable prices, and our guys doing a great job performing. There is not like historically when you see stuff like this, there are two or three drivers. Every month and quarter, there are companies that have an especially good month or quarter, but it's remarkably broad-based right now. That makes you more optimistic that it can continue.

Brian Lane, President and CEO

And also, our service business is up to $1 billion. We continue to grow that with higher margins, which is also helping our margins.

Josh Chan, Analyst

Okay. Yes, that's helpful. Thank you for the clarification. Regarding the same-store growth you are projecting for next year, if it's in the mid-teens for the full year and expected to be stronger in the first half, is it possible for your growth to accelerate in the first quarter beyond what you achieved in the fourth quarter? I just wanted to understand better how you plan to reach that full-year mid-teens growth.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

It's more complicated than it appears. It's difficult to provide a straightforward answer because the range may seem narrow, but we calculate it using a measure of 1.5 standard deviations. If you asked me to estimate Comfort's growth at 15%, I'd suggest allocating 1% or 2% more growth in the first two quarters compared to the last two quarters. The factors that contributed to our strong performance are still present. Our team is performing exceptionally well. One reason we believe the growth will be more pronounced in the first half is that we have greater visibility for that period.

Josh Chan, Analyst

Okay. Yes, that's really helpful. Yes, thank you for that. Maybe last one for me. Beyond what's in the backlog now, could you kind of talk about what opportunities you see in terms of things that you're bidding on, working on trying to get to the backlog or the early part of the bidding process? What are you seeing on that front? Thank you.

Brian Lane, President and CEO

We're seeing a tremendous amount of activity. We're being very selective, as we've spoken about, and it's heavy in a lot of manufacturing, a lot of industrial, a lot of technology. We're also seeing education backlog, and that is the highest it's been in years, particularly university work, some K through 12, and also health care, new build hospitals we're seeing come up. This is a wide range of opportunities in addition to the food, life sciences, and pharma, etc. that we've talked about. So pretty broad range.

Josh Chan, Analyst

That’s great to hear. Congrats on a great quarter and great year.

Brian Lane, President and CEO

Alright. Thank you, Jean.

Jean Ramirez, Analyst

As a percentage of revenue, what was modulars contribution for the year?

Brian Lane, President and CEO

20%.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

18%, I believe.

Jean Ramirez, Analyst

18%, is that correct?

Brian Lane, President and CEO

18%, yes.

Jean Ramirez, Analyst

Perfect. Sorry if I missed that. And just continuing on the conversation around backlog. Do you have any concerns or any major concerns around your markets near-term or perhaps taking a look at your capacity or labor or any other inputs? Is there anything to share there?

Brian Lane, President and CEO

Yes. Regarding backlog and the markets, I have no concerns, particularly in the commercial sector for office buildings, where there aren't many new developments. We primarily have a lot of service and small project work. The exception is Dallas, which remains quite active with office buildings. Overall, I have no significant concerns about the sectors. When it comes to our labor capacity, we are continually hiring. We expanded our workforce in the fourth quarter and have integrated a few new companies that enhance our resources, in addition to a temporary labor organization. So, we feel confident about our capacity and backlog and are in a good position to undertake the work we prefer and excel at.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

So just one correction, modular for the full-year was 15%, getting a quarterly number mixed up. 15% of our total revenue came through our two modular operations.

Jean Ramirez, Analyst

Perfect. Thank you. I appreciate that. And just one more for me. Could you discuss from the latest acquisition, the Summit Industrial construction? What are the opportunities the company sees to grow this business beyond the revenue ranges discussed?

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Well, it's productive capacity. Both of those two companies have more work available if they can take it. The revenue ranges we put in are the amount that's supported by their current backlog; it wouldn't be surprising if they did a little more. They can't do orders of magnitude more because there's a time space mass problem with the number of people. But certainly, virtually every acquisition we've done within a couple of years was bigger, so we're hoping that happens again.

Brian Lane, President and CEO

But they're really good companies.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

We don't urge people for revenue. They could get close to half the amount they did a year or two ago. I noticed that companies were smaller during the first full year we owned them. However, with almost no exceptions, in the third full year they are significantly larger. So we hope that trend continues.

Jean Ramirez, Analyst

Got it. Thank you so much for the additional comments there. Appreciate it.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Operator, Operator

And thank you. Our follow-up question comes from Alex Dwyer from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Alex Dwyer, Analyst

Hi, guys. Just one more if I can squeeze one in. So the free cash flow conversion in 2023, I'm just doing the math; it was 175% to net income. Do you have any sense of where this could shake out in 2024? Should we be expecting something lower than 100%? Or just any thoughts on visibility and cash flow conversion this year?

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

That's a really hard question because you have to predict the timing. We have two things going on. One, we have very good payment terms on almost all of our work. We’re overbuilt at unprecedented levels. But the big difference is just when we take these modular orders, we have the right to receive advanced payments when we accept the order. We have significant amounts of money that are being paid to us sometimes a year in advance of when the work will be done. It's hard to predict when those orders will come in. We just had big orders in the fourth quarter, so some of that money was collected in the fourth quarter. Some of that money will be still collected in the first quarter. We’ll start the year off in a good position. I believe later this year in the third, fourth, or next quarter or two where our cash flows will be less than our earnings. I will say this time last year, I thought the same thing, and the orders kept coming, and we stayed ahead. It's hard to predict.

Operator, Operator

And thank you. All right, thanks. I am showing no further questions. I would now like to turn the call over to Brian Lane for closing remarks.

Brian Lane, President and CEO

All right. Thanks, Justin. I really want to once again, thanks all of our amazing employees. It's a great industry, and we really appreciate everything everybody does in this organization. Thank you all for your interest in Comfort Systems. I hope everyone has a terrific weekend and look forward to seeing everybody soon. Thank you.

Bill George, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, everybody.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.