Earnings Call Transcript - FLO Q2 2024

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Flowers Food’s Second Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. Please be advised that today's event is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your opening speaker today, J.T. Rieck, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

J.T. Rieck, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations

Thank you, Shannon, and good evening. I hope everyone had the opportunity to review our earnings release, listen to our prepared remarks, and view the slide presentation that were all posted earlier on our Investor Relations website. After today's Q&A session, we will also post an audio replay of this call. Please note that in this Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. Although we believe these statements to be reasonable, they are subject to risks and uncertainties and could cause actual results to differ materially. In addition to what you hear in these remarks, important factors relating to Flowers Foods business are fully detailed in our SEC filings. We also provide non-GAAP financial measures for which disclosure and reconciliations are provided in the earnings release and at the end of the slide presentation on our website. Joining me today are Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO; and Steve Kinsey, our CFO. Ryals, I'll turn it over to you.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Okay, thanks, J.T. Good morning, everybody. I'm very pleased with our solid top and bottom line results in the quarter. Our leading brands are outperforming the category, growing volumes, and gaining market share. And our portfolio strategy is enhancing profitability in our private label and away-from-home businesses. At the same time, our savings initiatives have improved our cost structure, significantly boosting our margins compared to the first quarter, and enabling us to better leverage our top line performance as we go forward. The inflationary environment is encouraging some consumers to seek value, but many are increasingly looking for differentiated products. And that desire is manifesting itself in the strong performance of our leading brands. Consumers are clearly recognizing our brands' differentiation resulting in the largest dollar and unit share gain of any company in the category. We're investing to increase that differentiation further aligning our brand portfolio with the consumer. Our quarterly performance bolsters our confidence that we'll deliver results in line with our annual guidance. We're working to drive further improvements, and I look forward to continuing our progress throughout 2024. So with that, Shannon, we're ready to open it up for questions.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our first question comes from Robert Dickerson with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Robert Dickerson, Analyst

Great, thanks so much. Happy Friday and good morning. Ryals, I have a question regarding the promotional environment. In your prepared remarks, you mentioned that you have increased promotions slightly. It may not be a significant amount, but it is more than before. Meanwhile, it appears that you are gaining both unit and dollar share in bread. I'm curious, since the beginning of the year, your guidance has indicated some promotional risk, and there may be an increase in promotional activity as we head into the latter half of the year. You're promoting a bit more while also gaining share. Do you feel there is potentially more risk now, since typically, when you're gaining share, competitors might notice and begin to increase their promotions as well? Thank you.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Yes, sure, Rob. Thanks for the question. Yes, look, I suppose that's possible. And, you know, we indicated, you know, in our prepared remarks and even embedded in the guidance that we are accounting for that risk as we go through the year. We called it out at the beginning of the year, and I think it's still prudent to call it out now. You know, as we noted, consumers are responding a bit more to promotions, whereas not too long ago, they were not. And we all know that the consumer is, you know, alongside of differentiation, the consumer is seeking value. I think we saw that in a large retailer report this week. We're seeing the channel shift. We've been calling that out for several quarters now from grocery to mass club dollar. And that's kind of across income spectrums too. So to sum up, I think it's only prudent that we continue to watch that and be a little bit cautious as it relates to our outlook. Having said all that, you know, while promotions are up, things still remain pretty rational or still well below pre-pandemic. So you'd have a ways to go before you got to kind of 2019 promotional levels.

Robert Dickerson, Analyst

Okay, fair enough. And then, you know, it sounds like as you got through kind of the end of the quarter, you started to see some improvement in these trends, and you called out an increasing shift maybe back to at-home to seek value?

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Yes.

Robert Dickerson, Analyst

You know, middle of August, I mean, what we've seen in the data, kind of, through July was that was ongoing, actually even improved a little bit. I don't know if there's any way to provide any color kind of as what you've seen, let's say, through kind of the summer months and kind of how you're thinking about that momentum into back to school. Thanks.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Yes, so we have, as you know, we have a large food service business and a significant component of that is quick serve, fast food, food chains. And it's been in the news, folks have seen results that some of these QSR-oriented restaurants be a little bit challenged. And I think a lot of that is inflation obviously, but it also affects our food service volumes since that's a pretty significant part of the portfolio. But on the flip side, that tends to benefit the retail business. And so I do think that, that's somewhat of a tailwind for our branded retail business as we move through the next, at least the next couple of quarters, we'll kind of see how the economy does.

Robert Dickerson, Analyst

Okay, super. I'll pass it on.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Thanks, Robert.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bill Chappell with Truist Securities. Your line is now open.

Davis Holcombe, Analyst

Hey, good morning. This is Davis Holcombe on for Bill Chappell.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Good morning.

Davis Holcombe, Analyst

Just wondering if you could help us kind of unpack the impact of the business exits on volume. If there's any way that we can kind of get a quantification where volume's kind of flattish up, what does it look like directionally, I guess, from there?

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Yes, sure, we don't break that out to that granular of a level. But when you look at volumes in the quarter, they were very positive overall on the branded retail side, and particularly on the branded bread side. Now, that was somewhat weighed down by weakness in the cake business. You've seen that across the sweet baked goods category. And then as for the rest of the business, as we said, food service volumes have been a bit weak, due to that QSR weakness in addition to the strategic exits that we've talked about for several quarters now. However, it's important to remember that those strategic exits roll off in Q4. So they have virtually no impact on us in Q4. We're almost through them, as we mentioned last quarter. And so going forward, you'll see much less impact from that.

Davis Holcombe, Analyst

Excellent, thanks. And I was just also wondering if you could kind of help us get a feel for how the distribution, I guess, is going for the DKB, like the protein bar rollout and everything like that? Just a little bit more color there?

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Yes, sure. Overall, we're really pleased with how well we're doing. Look, as I've said several times before, this is a startup business for us. It's brand new. It's a different form of merchandising. It's not distributed DSD on the bread trucks. It goes to the warehouse, right now we have a limited number of SKUs, so we're working to expand our shelf presence. We've got the three snack bars, we've got the three protein bars that are coming out, so our shelf presence is getting better. At our top accounts, large retailers, where we're doing well, what we're doing well, we’re doing really well. And we've got velocities well within the top 10 in the category. However, there's been a couple of places where we've stubbed our toe from an execution standpoint, and that's part of the learning curve, and we're correcting that. But looking at it overall, we think we've got a great product under a great brand umbrella, and we're very confident about where this is going. Not to mention the additional pipeline of innovation with the snack bites coming later this year and then full distribution next year. So overall, we're pleased.

Davis Holcombe, Analyst

Awesome. Thanks for the color. We'll go ahead and pass it on.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Yes, thank you.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jim Salera with Stephens. Your line is now open.

Jim Salera, Analyst

Hey, good morning guys. Thanks for taking our question. Ryals, I wanted to maybe see if we could run through puts and takes on if we look at the exits from the business impacts, mention the pressure on the QSR business, but then if we think about netting those against the strong results at DKB and Canyon plus what seems like a benefit from food at-home shift.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Hey, Jim.

Jim Salera, Analyst

Yes.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Jim, sorry to interrupt you. Can you start your question over because we had some really bad audio at the beginning of your question?

Jim Salera, Analyst

Yes, no problem. Is that better?

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Yes, it seems like it is.

Jim Salera, Analyst

Okay, perfect. Yes, I was just asking if we could maybe net the exit from the business impacts with some of the pressure you mentioned in QSR and then thinking about that against the strong results of DKB, Canyon, benefit from a shift in food at-home. If we think about all that together, could we see positive volumes in 3Q and then obviously rolling into 4Q?

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Yes, I think definitely for 4Q that's a reasonable assumption, particularly with all the new business, Jim, that we have coming on. We talked about that last quarter. So that'll have more of an impact in Q4. And then with the roll off of the strategic exits, if we can continue to enjoy good momentum from all the brands you mentioned. Then yes, I think that's a distinct possibility. I mean, frankly, we were almost there in Q1. You know, the brand and retail was actually pretty positive in Q1. So yes, I think that's a reasonable possibility.

Jim Salera, Analyst

Okay, great. And then maybe if you could just give us some detail on, you mentioned in your prepared remarks, restructuring the retail team. Could you talk about how that changes some of the capabilities relative to the previous structure, and maybe when/how we might see that show up on shelf?

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Yes, I mean I think you got to give us a little bit of time, Meredith just started not just a few weeks ago, but you know we brought Terry Thomas on as the Chief Growth Officer. You know, he had some significant experience and insights from his time at Unilever and other places. And one of the things we lacked here was a channel-specific approach to strategy and execution at the retail level. I think that's one of the areas where it's going to be these restructurings are going to benefit us the most. Whereas before, you know, to shorthand it, you know, it was a little bit of a peanut butter spread approach to all channels. Now you're looking specifically at mass, you're looking specifically at club dollar, whatever it might be. And even as we roll out our snack items, convenience is a tremendous opportunity for us because we're so deeply under penetrated in that channel.

Jim Salera, Analyst

Great. Appreciate the color guys. I'll hop back in the queue.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Thank you, Jim.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mitchell Pinheiro with Sturdivant & Company. Your line is now open.

Mitchell Pinheiro, Analyst

Yes. Hey, good morning.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Hi, Mitch.

Mitchell Pinheiro, Analyst

I'm interested in your progress in some of the underrepresented geographic areas. What factors are contributing to that, and do you believe this growth is sustainable? It seems like a significant aspect of your growth narrative, especially considering your strong presence in the south and southwest, while there remains considerable opportunity elsewhere.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

We definitely believe so. As you mentioned, our largest market share is in the south, which is quite saturated. However, there are still areas for growth, such as with the Nature's Own Keto line, which continues to expand. In the South, when we analyze different regions, gaining market share has been somewhat challenging due to increased promotional activities and strong competition in our most mature market. Nevertheless, we've managed to identify specific categories where we can grow, including Keto, breakfast items, and sandwich buns and rolls, even in the South. Regarding underdeveloped markets, I genuinely think that growth is sustainable. With a national market share of around $17 to $18 and only about $10 in the northeast, we are still relatively new to that region. Dave's and DKB have been present even for a shorter duration. Moreover, we currently do not have a national marketing campaign, but that will be a focus for our advertising efforts. There's also plenty of opportunity for growth in the Northwest and, particularly important, in the Upper Midwest, where we have already started to expand and will continue to do so. We have options for mergers and acquisitions and innovation, along with these underdeveloped regions where we can significantly increase our market share within the category.

Mitchell Pinheiro, Analyst

Okay, thanks for that. And then, on margins, Steve, in the prepared remarks, you talk about moderating ingredient and packaging costs. Is that something you obviously have a lot of visibility there with the amount with you're pretty much set for the remainder of this year with visibility there? Is that something we're going to see, not just moderating increases, but are we going to see declines?

Steve Kinsey, CFO

Yes, we've performed well in terms of margin this year and are satisfied with our position. Our strategy remains focused on hedging six to nine months ahead of the market, which helps us understand our cost structure. The first half of the year has provided the most significant benefit from reducing costs. While we anticipate some advantages in the second half, those benefits are expected to decrease somewhat. Overall, we continue to project reasonable margin improvement for the year.

Mitchell Pinheiro, Analyst

Okay. And then, I have one last question about mergers and acquisitions. You've been somewhat quiet on that front. Do you expect to share your thoughts on the pipeline? Are you waiting for issues related to ERP and California to settle before moving forward with M&A, or are those issues unrelated and independent of each other?

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

No, we're ready to go. When the right opportunity arises, we are prepared for mergers and acquisitions. I want to emphasize that we are very proactive in the market, actively building relationships. We are aware of potential opportunities and are prepared for them. In some instances, we have even conducted advanced commercial diligence to ensure we can act quickly when the right opportunity presents itself. These opportunities may arise in both our core and adjacent categories. There have been significant deals announced recently, and I believe more are on the way. The M&A market appears to be improving, as we noted last quarter. Therefore, we are optimistic about this, Mitch.

Mitchell Pinheiro, Analyst

All right. Thank you. Appreciate the questions.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Okay. Thanks.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche bank. Your line is now open.

Steve Powers, Analyst

Hey. Thanks, and good morning, guys.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Good morning, Steve.

Steve Powers, Analyst

So, for the first question, can you provide more insight on how you view the pricing dynamics versus the volume outlook in the branded retail space for the latter half of the year? You've already dealt with prior pricing changes from last year. Recent data suggests that pricing in your category and specifically for your products has shown a decline. As we proceed through the second half, considering your targeted promotional strategies and possible changes in product mix, will this negative trend continue despite the ongoing premiumization? Is it likely that reported pricing will remain negative in the latter half, but with volume offsetting this decline? Or do you believe you can maintain a neutral pricing mix as we move into 2024?

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Yes. Let's break it down a bit. On the branded side, all of our pricing is established. The data we analyzed shows that our average price increased by $0.07 in the quarter, not decreased, although that is influenced by the mix. As we mentioned, DKB performed well, Canyon had a strong quarter, and Nature's Own also did well considering the circumstances. This mix is a contributing factor. If we can sustain this trend, I believe the mix will continue to positively impact us as we progress through the remainder of the year.

Steve Kinsey, CFO

Yes, right. I mean, obviously, as Ryals said, all of our branded pricing is in. You've seen the kind of the cost environment as well, and also some slight promotions. So mix is a big part of the back half. And then as Ryals said, if brands continue to perform well and things play out as we think with some of the new business, by the fourth quarter, we might see some positive volume as well.

Steve Powers, Analyst

Okay, great. Regarding ERP and the bakery rollout, that is currently on hold due to the California distribution transition. Looking ahead, what is the timeline for resuming the bakery rollout? Are we considering mid-2025, or is it expected to be sooner or later? How should we approach this?

Steve Kinsey, CFO

I mean, today, we're obviously trying to work through California, but the plan is to pick back up bakery rollouts late this year or first quarter of next year and then come up with a pretty strong plan to try to stay on our original targets. Obviously, if things shift, we'll let you know. But I think the good thing is right now, from an overall cost perspective, we're not anticipating anything to change. So that's critical from that standpoint as well.

Steve Powers, Analyst

Okay, so the resumption could happen before the distribution, right? Purchases are fully complete. That's what I'm gleaning from what your answer was.

Steve Kinsey, CFO

Yes. The goal is to pick back up no later than Q1 of next year.

Steve Powers, Analyst

Okay, perfect. All right. Thank you very much.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Thanks, Steve.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. And I'm currently showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back over to Ryals McMullian for closing remarks.

Ryals McMullian, Chairman and CEO

Okay. Thanks, Shannon. Thanks, everybody, for taking time today and joining us for questions. We appreciate your interest in our company. And as always, we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Take care.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.