Earnings Call Transcript
FRANCO NEVADA Corp (FNV)
Earnings Call Transcript - FNV Q4 2023
Operator, Operator
Good morning, and welcome to Franco-Nevada Corporation's 2023 Year-end Results Conference Call and Webcast. This call is being recorded on March 6, 2024. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct the Q&A session, where you may ask a question through the phone lines or webcast. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations
Thank you, Alura. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Franco-Nevada's year-end 2023 results. Accompanying this call is a presentation, which is available on our website at franco-nevada.com, where you will also find our full financial results. The presentation is also available to view on the webcast. During our call this morning, Paul Brink, President and CEO of Franco-Nevada, will provide introductory remarks; followed by Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer, who will provide a brief review of our results. This will be followed by a Q&A period. Our full executive team is available to answer any questions. Participants may submit questions by telephone or via the webcast. We would like to remind participants that some of today's commentary may contain forward-looking information, and we refer you to our detailed cautionary note on Slide 2 of this presentation. I will now turn over the call to Paul Brink, President and CEO of Franco-Nevada.
Paul Brink, President and CEO
Thank you, Candida, and good morning. Our diversified top line business has a history of generating leading returns. But in late 2023, we were challenged by the unprecedented production hole for Cobre Panama. We're hopeful that the issues can be resolved, although we've taken a prudent approach to the carrying value of the asset. Despite the issues at Cobre Panama, our business remains robust. We finished the year with no debt at $1.4 billion of cash. The balance of our long-duration business still generates industry-leading cash flow. Our top-line business model is fortunately not impacted by industry cost inflation. And in 2023, we generated an 83% adjusted EBITDA margin. During the year, we added a number of attractive royalty interests, principally on gold mines and projects in Canada, Chile, Australia, and the U.S. The drop in U.S. natural gas prices also allowed us to add to our natural gas royalty interests. Our shareholders depend on us to allocate capital to operations that treat the environment and the host communities responsibly. This work has resulted in top-level ratings from the ESG agencies. Notably, we're top-ranked in the gold sector and in the broader precious metal by Sustainalytics for 2024. Our objective is to have a sustainable and progressive dividend that's dependable, even in times of volatility, and in 2024, we are proud to increase our dividend for the 17th consecutive year. Investors from our IPO are now achieving a 9.4% yield in U.S. dollars or a 12.9% yield in Canadian dollars. The growth outlook for the balance of our business is strong over the next five years. Grade assets keep getting better. Antamina has just sanctioned the capital program that will increase production in an area considering in-ground expansion. Agnico Eagle is planning to add underground for our tour to expand output up to 1 million ounces per year. There are exciting new mine builds. I'm looking forward to new contributions from Tocantinzinho, Greenstone, and Salares Norte among others that will drive our organic growth through 2028. This outlook brings good certainty; two-thirds of the production is already under construction. The $3.4 billion of capital we have available positions us well to add further assets. Cobre Panama represented roughly 20% of our revenue, and the production halt has seen more than a proportional reduction in our market cap. The prospect of Cobre restarting or an arbitration settlement are all upside optionality from these trading levels. In summary, the outlook for our business is bright. Our strategy of maintaining a strong balance sheet has never been more relevant, giving us a large treasury to grow the business at a time when capital for the industry is scarce. Now, I hand the call over to Sandip.
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Paul, and good morning, everyone. I will begin with Slide 4, which shows how the company performed against the guidance that was issued for 2023. The updated guidance provided by the company for last year was 620,000 to 640,000 total GEOs sold. Of this total, we guided to 480,000 to 500,000 precious metal GEOs, with the balance coming from diversified assets. The company ended the year with 607,045 GEOs sold, well within the guidance range. We're also within the guidance range for precious metals with 488,109 GEOs sold. The diversified assets, which include our non-precious mining assets, resulted in just under 140,000 GEOs sold for the year. Before I dive further into the financial results, I wanted to speak about Cobre Panama. Turning to Slide 5, Cobre Panama is Franco-Nevada's largest investment and has generated approximately 20% of revenue. Before the halt in production, the mine was operating very well, having successfully completed its expansion to 100 million tonnes per year. We delivered 28,318 GEOs during the fourth quarter and just shy of 129,000 GEOs for the full year. However, as previously disclosed, Cobre Panama has been in preservation and safe management with production halted since November 2023. On November 28, 2023, following protests and President Cortizo’s call for a mining moratorium, the Supreme Court of Justice of Panama released its ruling declaring Law 406 unconstitutional. In light of these events, we carried out an impairment assessment of our Cobre Panama streams at December 31, 2023. The recording of impairments is a judgment made by management based on available information at a point in time, which are used to determine the accounting treatment. We took a prudent approach in our assessment of the facts and circumstances based on the halting of production, the political environment surrounding the ruling by the Supreme Court, as well as the significant share price impact. We determined the recoverable amount under applicable accounting standards to be nil as at December 31, 2023. As a result, we recognized a full non-cash impairment loss of approximately $1.2 billion. As previously disclosed, we have provided a notice of intent to commence arbitration against the State of Panama. While we believe in the strength of our claims, the potential proceeds from the arbitration are reflected in our impairment valuation. Our streams on Cobre Panama remain valid, and we are hopeful of a resolution between First Quantum and the State of Panama and a restart of the mine, at which point our deliveries would restart. In this situation, we would assess the recoverable amount of Cobre Panama streams at that time, which may lead to a reversal of part or all of the impairment loss we recognized. Moving on to the financial performance for the quarter. On Slide 6, we highlight the gold equivalent ounces sold for the last five quarters as well as the last five years. Total GEOs sold were lower when compared to the prior year, with Q4 2023 GEOs sold being 152,351 compared to 180,886 in the fourth quarter of 2022. Of this, precious metal GEOs were 119,581, down approximately 8% from the prior year. The largest contributors to the lower precious metals were Cobre Panama due to the halt in production, Stillwater, which was impacted by converting weaker platinum and palladium revenue to GEOs, and Candelaria, which had lower production during the quarter. The lower GEOs from these assets were partially offset by stronger production from both Antapaccay and MWS, both of which had a very strong fourth quarter. Precious metal GEOs represented 79% of total GEOs for the quarter and 78% for the full year. For diversified GEOs, our Vale royalty resulted in an increase in GEOs for the quarter compared to the prior year due to higher iron ore prices. As you know, each quarter, we estimate what the royalty will be, and the actual amount is announced by Vale in late March and September each year. As a result, you will see adjustments to our accruals twice a year in the first and third quarters each year. Energy GEOs were significantly lower at 25,640 GEOs for Q4 compared to 47,713 a year ago. This was the result of lower energy prices, particularly natural gas. In 2023, we saw continued volatility in commodity prices. As you can see on Slide 7, gold and silver prices were higher for the quarter and year, with gold higher by over 14% for the quarter and almost 8% for the year. Palladium prices were significantly lower year-over-year, negatively impacting the conversion of PGM revenues to GEOs. Energy prices were weaker in '23, coming off multi-year highs from 2022. Slide 8 shows our total revenue and adjusted EBITDA amounts for the last five quarters. As you can see from the bar charts, revenue and adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly in Q4 2023 compared to the prior year. The company recorded $303.3 million in revenue during the quarter and $254.6 million in adjusted EBITDA. The margin of 83.9% was achieved for the quarter. As you turn to Slide 9, you will see the key financial results for the company. As mentioned, total GEOs were 627,045, generating $1.2 billion in revenue. On the cost side, we experienced a slight decrease in cost of sales compared to Q4 2022 due to lower energy costs. Additionally, the cost of sales is dependent on which assets deliver stream ounces, as not all fixed payments for stream ounces are equal. Depletion decreased to $68.9 million versus $73.5 million a year ago, which is based on actual mining GEOs sold and barrels of oil equivalent received on the energy side of the business. As we received fewer GEOs from Cobre Panama, Antamina, and Candelaria, this impacted depletion as those assets are higher per ounce depletion assets. We recorded a net loss for the quarter of $982.5 million, or $5.11 per share, due to the impairment recorded on Cobre Panama. This compares to a net income of $165 million, or $0.86 per share in the prior year. However, adjusted net income was $172.9 million, or $0.90 per share for the quarter, up 5% and 5.8%, respectively, versus the prior year. Slide 10 highlights the continued diversification of the portfolio. From the chart, you can see that 78% of our full-year 2023 revenue was generated by precious metals, with revenue being sourced 88% from the Americas, with Canada and the United States as the largest contributors. Slide 11 illustrates the strength of our business model to generate high margins. For 2023, the cash cost per GEO, which is essentially the cost of sales divided by gold equivalent ounces sold, is $286 per GEO. This compares to $242 per GEO in 2022. This amount will fluctuate depending on the mix of royalty versus stream GEOs, including mining and energy. As you can see, at current average gold prices, the company generates significant margins, with margins exceeding $1,600 per ounce in 2023. In a rising commodity environment, we expect to benefit fully, as the cost per GEO sold should not increase significantly. We consider our cost structure to essentially be fixed. The other cost component for the company, besides the cost of sales, is our core administration costs. The royalty streaming business model is a scalable model. Our corporate administration costs have increased at a much lower rate than our revenue. Revenue has increased eightfold from 2008, while corporate admin costs have less than doubled over the same period. Management believes we can continue to add to our portfolio and grow our business without adding significant overhead to the company. With respect to guidance going forward, please refer to Slide 13. For 2024, we are guiding to total GEOs sold of between 480,000 to 540,000 GEOs. Of this total GEOs, we are guiding to 360,000 to 400,000 precious metals GEOs for the year. The balance would be GEOs from our diversified assets, of which we expect energy to account for about 75% for 2024. Please note that for all guidance ranges, we have excluded Cobre Panama in our GEO sold numbers. At Cobre Panama's range in production, we would have expected deliveries and sales of between 130,000 to 150,000 GEOs annually. The overall main drivers for GEOs year-over-year are: for precious metals, we will benefit from initial ounces from new mines being completed in 2024, including Tocantinzinho, Greenstone, Mera Rosa, and Salares Norte. We will have full-year deliveries for Magino and Séquéla, and we expect an increase in GEOs from Candelaria based on the guidance from the operator. However, we are anticipating lower production at Antapaccay based on the mine plan for lower grades. Our guidance has been calculated using $1,950 per ounce gold, $22.50 for silver, $850 for platinum, $900 palladium, and $115 per ton for 62% iron ore. Obviously, prices are volatile, and as they change, it will impact the conversion of non-gold commodities to GEOs. Also, please note we expect to reach our GEO cap by MWS by the end of 2024. On the energy side, we are using a price of $75 per barrel WTI and $2.50 for natural gas. This range of 85,000 to 105,000 GEOs comes from our energy assets. As we look forward over the next few years, we forecast 2026 as the current high for GEO sold based upon what we know today. Thereafter, we will have Antapaccay in 2028. Our outlook for 2028 is 540,000 to 600,000 GEOs sold. Out of this range, metals will be between 385,000 to 425,000 GEOs. Main contributors will be higher production from Antamina and Guadalupe based on the latest mine plans. New mine starts from Valentine Gold, Stibnite Gold, Eskay Creek, and Castle Mountain Phase 2 are also expected. For diversified GEOs, we do expect increasing GEOs from our Vale royalty, as attributable production should increase with the royalty on the Southeast system becoming payable. For the energy assets, we do assume an increase in production over the next five years. Overall, when you look at the outlook for GEO sold, the company has approximately 15% built-in organic growth from 2023 to 2028 at budgeted commodity prices, excluding Cobre Panama. This also assumes that no additional assets are added to the portfolio. Two additional items to note: with the legal proceedings that we will move forward related to Cobre Panama, we are expecting to incur annual costs of between $10 million to $15 million per year. These costs will be disclosed separately in our financials going forward. And with the proposed implementation of the global minimum tax sometime in 2024, we are projecting that our effective tax rate will increase to approximately 18% to 19% going forward. The global minimum tax will be retroactive to January 1, 2024. The effective tax rate will actuate based on the jurisdictions that generate income. Lastly, Slide 14 summarizes the financial resources available to the company, including our credit facility of $1 billion. Total available capital at December 31, 2023, is $2.4 billion. And now I'll pass it over to Alura, and we are happy to answer any questions.
Operator, Operator
Of course, thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Josh Wolfson from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Josh Wolfson, Analyst
Yeah, thanks very much. First question is just on the long-term guidance. The structure of the deals the company has signed for a lot of its cornerstone assets incorporates the step-downs, which two of which I guess are coming into play here for the five-year guidance. When you look at the outlook for growth and the replacement of some of this production, how do you sort of factor the step-downs into the timing of deals? Or is there any motivation to structure these deals, so there's consistent growth on a year-over-year basis longer term?
Paul Brink, President and CEO
Josh, it's Paul. At the time we do the deal, it's more about looking at what the reserves are and what you're confident will be mined over time and making sure that we get a minimum return or minimum estimated return based on that. And then also sizing the long term of the deal so that you've got an acceptable burden on the assets that you're going to maximize the optionality. So it really is a deal by deal approach where you're trying to strike that balance. Obviously, it's a negotiation. We would love to push that out further in time, but you see what you can achieve on each transaction.
Josh Wolfson, Analyst
Okay. And then on Cobre, my understanding is there is some volume of concentrate on site that could potentially be sold. Has this already been recorded in terms of value for Franco? And if there were any concentrate sales, would that register as production for Franco this year?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
So Josh, since the concentrate has not yet been shipped, no deliveries have been made to Franco for our share of the gold over there. Under our agreement, we are entitled to deliver some silver based on that concentrate.
Josh Wolfson, Analyst
Okay. And then last question, again on Cobre. The $5 billion damage value, just so I understand this is a separate case that would be in addition to the First Quantum arbitration for $20 billion?
Paul Brink, President and CEO
Yes, we're pursuing independent arbitrations, so the two amounts are additive.
Josh Wolfson, Analyst
Okay. And then under the stream agreement, Franco would be entitled as well to the proportional share for that $20 billion, and I hope it doesn't come to that situation. But am I misunderstanding that still correct there?
Paul Brink, President and CEO
That was one approach we could have taken – just First Quantum pursued and then we get a share of proceeds. The approach that we've agreed to take is that we'd each independently pursue it. You're assuming we're both successful, and we wouldn't share on their side as well.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
Thank you very much operator. And then hello everybody. Thank you for the call today. I wanted to ask about Cobre Panama as well, how much of the upfront between the two streams, the KORES and the First Quantum stream has been paid back up to today and before the potential concentrate sales?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
It's roughly half, Lawson. Off the top of my head, it's close to about $700 million.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
Okay. Perfect. And then sometimes with these agreements, do these partner guarantees exist where any sort of outstanding upfront that hasn't been paid back? In the event of the closure, the operator then would be on the hook for that. Is that a feature of this agreement?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, there is an uncredited balance. So as I said, of the $1.35 billion that we invested, we received around half of that back. The remainder is an uncredited balance that we would be entitled to at the end of the contract.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
Will you be seeking that now that you've written the asset down to nil? Will you be seeking that now going forward from First Quantum?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Not at this time. We want the contract to remain valid. We're hopeful of a restart at which time the mine resumes production, and we receive our deliveries.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
Okay. Perfect. And then I also wanted to ask about Palmarejo. Which mine plan are you assuming? Are you assuming a reserve only mine plan? Or are there some resources in the mine plan that you've assumed with those GEOs?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Reserves and resources based on a mine plan that the operators provided to us.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
So would that reflect our most recent technical report?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
I'd have to double-check what information we've received.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu from CIBC. Please go ahead.
Cosmos Chiu, Analyst
Thanks, Paul and Sandip. If I could, I wanted to ask about the write-down at Cobre Panama. I find it interesting that when First Quantum reported about two weeks ago, they didn't take a write-down, and on the other hand, yesterday night, you did take a write-down on Cobre Panama. And I checked, same auditors, PwC Toronto. So I'm just wondering about the different approach. Should we be concerned about the security that you have of your economic interest in the asset?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Cosmos, as I said, recording impairments is a management judgment. It's based on the information at that point in time, and based on the facts we opted to be prudent and recorded an impairment. It does not question the validity of our stream agreement. Our stream agreement is in place, and if the mine does resume production, which we are hopeful it will, we would look to reverse that impairment.
Cosmos Chiu, Analyst
Of course. Sandip mentioned earlier there are $10 million to $15 million of ongoing costs annually. Could you clarify those are just legal costs? What kinds of costs are those? And could you maybe provide us with a bit more color?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Sure. We have filed a notice of arbitration with the State of Panama under the Canada-Panama free trade agreement. If this arbitration moves forward and the mine is not restarted, we will incur legal and consulting fees related to that arbitration. So if the arbitration proceeds, that's our current estimate for annual costs.
Cosmos Chiu, Analyst
Of course. And then maybe one last question on 2024 guidance. As you mentioned, there are a number of assets coming on, and in part, that's why it is growing year-over-year without Cobre Panama. Could you maybe talk about whether there's any kind of lag between production and when Franco-Nevada starts receiving a stream or a royal payment on those assets? And how much conservatism have you factored in, just in case there's any kind of delay in the start-up of some of these assets?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Obviously, we're basing our projections on what the operator or the developers have released publicly. But in terms of delays in receiving, there shouldn't be any concerning Greenstone and its royalty or Salares Norte. These are streams where we should get deliveries regularly. So I don't anticipate any timing delays.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek from Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Thanks, good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Just wanted to follow up on the write-down. So it seems, Sandip, how you answered the question for Cosmos is that you guys decided you wanted to take the full write-down even before having any visibility on the new government. Is that a fair assumption?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Yes. As I said, it's a management judgment based on information that's available to us, and that was the decision we made.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
So you wanted to go that route rather than take a little bit every quarter. Would that be a fair statement?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
That's a fair statement.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Okay. Thank you for that. And the $10 million to $15 million would be expensed in the income statement that we would put in for this year, assuming the mine comes back up next year?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Correct. Yes. So obviously, those costs are if it doesn't restart.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Yeah. And then just on the global minimum tax, we did see that Barbados has implemented it, and you've given us the tax rate for the year. Is it safe to assume that Q1 should have a lower tax rate, and then we would have a pop-up back to that 18%-19% sometime in 2024?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Barbados has not yet substantively enacted the global minimum tax. Therefore, in the first quarter, we will have a lower tax rate until it is implemented in Canada. The important factor is for Canada to implement the global minimum tax, which would then activate the tax in Barbados and change our tax rate.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Okay. So let's assume this isn't until midyear; you would go through two quarters at the lower tax rate, and then we go back up to the higher tax rate and potentially then have to go back to restate for Q1 and Q2?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
There won't be a restatement; it would be a cash adjustment.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Got you. Yeah. Okay. Thank you for that as well. And just on the guidance could ask, I mean, we were a bit higher, 8% higher from your midpoint. So I appreciate the assets that are doing well, and we have all of those. You mentioned Antapaccay that is coming off. Are there any other assets like the halt? I mean we are always off on hold? Is there any other assets within the portfolio that you can help us understand what would be weaker this year versus last?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
In our guidance, we've highlighted the material ones. Obviously, other assets, they are small movements positive and negative, but I think we've highlighted the large movers.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Okay. And it's fair to assume that as you look at your year, the second half would be weighted with better performance coming on with some of these, such as Tocantinzinho and Salares Norte, etc.?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
That is correct.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Okay. And then if I could ask on just the natural gas acquisition that you did, is there any guidance that can be provided on these royalties or contributions and/or other? Like is there anything you hope for on that?
Jason O’Connell, Executive
Yeah. Hi, Tanya, it's Jason here. So you'll have noted that the acquisition last year was $125 million that we spent on assets in the Haynesville. They are a complementary set of assets to what we already own in the Haynesville. In terms of contribution, what I can tell you is that last year, on an annualized basis, the royalties that we acquired generated about 6.5 million Mcf. So depending on your gas price, if you had a $2.50 gas price, that would be a little over $16 million in revenue. There are some deductions in costs associated with that. So you'd have to deduct those, but that's a rough guide to how the assets performed last year. We would expect volumes to be in a similar range this year, although operators have been a bit more conservative in their drilling activity or pace so far this year. But that's a rough estimate.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Okay. So somewhere in that if we were to be conservative, you'd be estimating about $10 million to $15 million for 2024 and into the 2028 range on the revenue line?
Jason O’Connell, Executive
Yeah, I think that's a reasonable estimate. Our best guess in terms of five-year guidance would be similar to the coming year.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Okay, perfect. And then just lastly, maybe someone can address some of the M&A opportunities out there. I would assume, and maybe you can correct me if I'm wrong. The focus will shift back to precious metals? Or maybe someone can just tell me how you're looking at transactions right now from either commodity base, producers versus developers, helping fund these assets potentially for sale from Newmont and/or maybe corporate transactions. So size-wise, that would be very helpful. Thank you.
Eaun Gray, Executive
Thank you for the question, Tanya. It's Eaun speaking. I think those are very astute observations. I'd say we're spending a majority of our time on precious channels for off, and we do look at other commodities. Increasingly, we see a lot of opportunity there. So coming out of the last couple of weeks of conferences, we see good opportunities across commodities, but we are spending the majority of our time on precious metals. In terms of the types of transactions, I would say this is certainly that towards project finance, getting things constructed. But M&A finance, of course, is also pretty near the front of the package towards a potential transaction. So looking at that carefully as well.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Would it fair to assume from what you said that you're looking at project financing to help fund that also corporate transactions from an M&A standpoint?
Eaun Gray, Executive
Yeah. Yeah. Certainly. In terms of volume, though, there's more project financings than acquisition financings, in terms of the pipeline.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
And size-wise, that, Eaun, if I could, what you're seeing out there?
Eaun Gray, Executive
I don't think it's changed much since we last spoke; probably more towards the kind of medium size $200 million to $300 million is, I would say, the typical size of those transactions. There are some smaller. We don't mind doing some of the smaller transactions if they give us good torque on resource, but that's the general median size.
Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst
Thank you so much. And thank you for taking all my questions. I could go on, but I should leave, to have someone else to ask. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Martin Pradier from Veritas. Please go ahead.
Martin Pradier, Analyst
Yes, thank you. My first question is in terms of the arbitration, is there any legally established time for the arbitration to take time? I mean, is it like two years, one year, or is there no limit on how long this can go on?
Lloyd Hong, Legal Counsel
Hi, Martin, it's Lloyd Hong. There is no sort of timeline for these things. As a general rule, I think you should probably expect that if it does go to conclusion, it will take several years.
Martin Pradier, Analyst
And the second question will be how enforceable will an arbitration be? Because these things, like in other countries, had legal rulings against them and people have been unable to enforce it.
Lloyd Hong, Legal Counsel
Yes. In terms of the recognition of the award pursuant to international conventions, I think it would be treated as if it were a final judgment to the highest court of any given country that's a party to that convention. Collection following that is something that would have to be pursued.
Martin Pradier, Analyst
Okay. And in terms of this, can you provide some guidance on what do you expect on that mine?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
So there's a minimum delivery in place. It's roughly 11,000 GEOs a year. But I can call you afterward to give you the specifics.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Jackie Przybylowski from BMO. Please go ahead.
Jackie Przybylowski, Analyst
Thank you very much for taking my question. I just wanted to ask you about your arbitration claim. The amount that you disclosed of $5 billion just seemed higher than what we would have in terms of the amount that would be OTU in arbitration for Cobre Panama. I was wondering if you might just be able to walk us through how you arrived at that number and sort of what that represents to Franco-Nevada?
Paul Brink, President and CEO
Jackie, it's Paul. So under the Cobre Panama trade agreement, in terms of our claim and what we've got the right to recover is, I think it's the wording is for reparations, full amount of the damages. There are a number of ways that you calculate the value of the assets within our company. One of those measures is any loss of market valuation. That, for us, is a minimum of $5 billion. We expect that as we work through the details, we'll finalize what that number is, but I expect that it will be well supported by the valuation for the asset and would be a minimum of $5 billion.
Jackie Przybylowski, Analyst
That's super helpful. Thank you for clarifying that. And maybe just one other question. This is probably unlikely, but I'm going to ask anyway; is there any recourse to you if you don't collect on arbitration or if arbitration doesn't conclude favorably? Is there any other recourse to you? Could you or would you put a direct loss to gigs First Quantum? Is that something that's available? Or would you consider that?
Paul Brink, President and CEO
We haven't considered that, Jackie. In terms of the plans, Plan A is to seek a negotiated solution to get the mine restarted. Plan B would be the arbitration.
Operator, Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Greg Barnes from TD. Please go ahead.
Greg Barnes, Analyst
Thank you. Sandip, I'm going to apologize. I'm going to ask about the impairment as well. Are there any tax issues that went into your decision to take the impairment now? It just seems rather early. What are the factors that maybe went into your thinking given it's a management decision?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Greg, no tax had nothing to do with it. As I've said, it's a management judgment based on the impact on our share price, based on the Supreme Court decision, and based on the mine being halted, all triggers in our analysis of recording an impairment. We try to be prudent, and that's the decision that management made.
Greg Barnes, Analyst
Okay. Okay. Fair enough. I would think the share price reaction may have been one of the biggest factors in that decision?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
It was part of it.
Operator, Operator
We have a follow-up question coming from the line of Martin Pradier from Veritas. Please go ahead.
Martin Pradier, Analyst
Yes. Just one question about the uncredited balance that you could have some recourse first quantum. If I understood correctly, that you could probably go for like $650 million, if my math is correct. But you didn’t count that into your impairment?
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
Correct. We did not factor that into our analysis.
Martin Pradier, Analyst
That is a potential course of action.
Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer
It is, yes.
Paul Brink, President and CEO
As Sandip said, it's not the current plan. We're hopeful that there is the potential for a restart. So we wouldn't terminate the contract to make that claim; we will keep it open, and we're hopeful for success.
Operator, Operator
We have a follow-up question coming from the line of Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
Hi, thanks operator. And thank you guys for taking the question again. I just want to follow up on the discussion around deal flow and ask whether or not you're seeing any deal flow in terms of transactions where there's a balance sheet repair element? I mean, obviously, those were some of the biggest transactions you guys have done? And are you seeing any signs of those in your discussions? Thanks very much.
Eaun Gray, Executive
Lawson, it's Eaun again. Yes, it's a short answer. We do have some of those that we're currently looking at. They make up part of our typical deal flow. With higher interest rates, I think this will likely remain part of what we do over the next little while.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
And so when you discussed the various sizes of those transactions, would that fall into that sort of lower hundreds of millions of dollars range? Are some of those getting bigger like they had been in the 2015 to 2017 period?
Eaun Gray, Executive
It varies. There are some out there that would be meaningfully larger, as that was kind of the median size of what we're looking at. There are also some that are smaller and still fall into that category.
Paul Brink, President and CEO
There are a couple of things driving it there. One is the cost of debt. People who've got debt see that rates are high and are struggling to refinance. The other area is the availability of equity. There are folks hoping to raise the next set of funds to advance their projects to feasibility or to do the next stage of economic study, and they are just not able to secure that money in the equity market. So the industry is feeling a squeeze. As I characterized the portfolio, it's very active right now because of the need for capital.
Lawson Winder, Analyst
Thanks, Paul. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
There are no further questions on the phone line. I will now turn the Q&A session over to Candida Hayden, who will take questions from the webcast.
Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations
Thank you, Laura. Our first question comes from Michael Fine of Investing for Retirees. What have you learned from the Cobre Panama experience? And how are you applying that to your business strategy?
Paul Brink, President and CEO
So Michael, it's Paul. We didn't at the time anticipate the political risk in Panama. Part of that is the world has changed. In terms of what went on, we see how, despite having a government that was supportive of the mine and negotiating contracts with the company, there was a popular uprising that caused these issues. So as we look at countries going forward, that is the new world we're in, and we've got to take that into account.
Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations
Our next question is from Bo Wicklander from Sweden. How is the current market environment in finding new high-quality streams and royalties? And how is the competition for the opportunities?
Eaun Gray, Executive
Thank you for the question. I think we covered a lot of that with Tanya and Lawson's questions. I would say competition remains relatively vigorous. I think we're benefiting significantly from our strong liquidity and cash flow position, vis-a-vis some of our peers. A larger balance sheet helps us compete on a number of transactions. We've demonstrated, I think, in several cases that we're a partner of choice as people look towards project financing that we can offer a unique and very helpful solution, as you saw in terms of a bigger transaction that was very well conceived and well received by the market.
Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations
Thank you, Eaun. There are no further questions from the webcast. This concludes our 2023 year-end results conference call and webcast. We expect to release our first quarter 2024 results after market close on May 1, with the conference call held the following morning. Thank you for your interest in Franco-Nevada. Goodbye.