Earnings Call Transcript - FNV Q3 2025

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Franco-Nevada Corporation's Third Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded on November 4, 2025. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations

Thank you, Ina. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Franco-Nevada's Third Quarter 2025 Results. Accompanying this call is a presentation, which is available on our website at franco-nevada.com, where you will also find our full financial results. During our call this morning, Paul Brink, President and CEO of Franco-Nevada, will provide introductory remarks followed by Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer, who will provide a brief review of our results. This will be followed by a Q&A period. Our full executive team is available to answer any questions. We would like to remind participants that some of today's commentary may contain forward-looking information, and we refer you to our detailed cautionary note on Slide 2 of this presentation. I will now turn over the call to Paul Brink, President and CEO of Franco-Nevada.

Paul Brink, President and CEO

Thank you, Candida, and good day to all. For the third time this year, we're announcing record quarterly results. The new benchmark set this quarter was driven by high gold prices, strong operations, new acquisitions, and the sale of Cobre Panama stockpiles. Over the last 18 months, we've made 6 acquisitions of meaningful new gold interests. Yanacocha, Cascabel, Sibanye's Western Limb, Porcupine, Côté, and Arthur, all large ore bodies that will contribute to our growth for many decades. Of the 6, Porcupine, Yanacocha, and Western Limb are also producing. That will impact our 5-year growth and have boosted our gold price exposure. 85% of our revenue was from precious metals in the quarter. The last of the acquisitions in July this year was a royalty on the Arthur Gold project in Nevada, operated by AngloGold. We did draw on our corporate revolver to fund the acquisition, and with our strong cash flow generation and the proceeds from equity sales, the company was once again debt-free by quarter-end. During the quarter, we saw progress on the ground at Cobre Panama, completion of the concentrate shipments, and pre-commissioning of the power plant for restart with the aim to provide power to the Panamanian grid, and formal notice to SGS to commence the environmental audit work. Perhaps just as importantly, we're encouraged by the recent constructive comments by the President of Panama towards the resolution of the Cobre mine closure. If Cobre does come back online and with the contributions from our recent acquisitions, we're positioned for roughly 50% growth in GEOs over 5 years compared to last year. For the long-term assets we've added, we can then maintain that level of production for many years thereafter. Our deal pipeline remains very active. Although with this run-up in gold prices, we're also expecting good organic growth. With roughly half our revenue coming from principal gold assets, we expect this to be a powerful driver. Operators have strong cash flow for mine expansions, some ongoing by Detour and others now planned at Côté, Magino, and Valentine. Developers have been able to raise capital for new builds; in particular, Skeena and Perpetua were both successful in tapping the equity markets to ensure that they can advance Eskay Creek and Stibnite Gold. The drills are turning on our large portfolio of exploration stage royalties. Recognition of the importance of critical minerals has also unlocked a number of permitting processes, giving the green light to construction to Copper World and Stibnite Gold. Castle Mountain is also now included in the U.S. FAST-41 permitting process. On that same note, I've been impressed to see the profile that the Ring of Fire is getting in the Ontario government's Critical Mineral Strategy. In the last few years, we've added new avenues to grow our company. That is finding good teams and good projects and not just providing royalty or stream financing, but being their financial banker. The first was G Mining Ventures with Tocantinzinho and the second, the discovery team with Porcupine. Both are best-in-class and are proving to be highly successful. We are delighted to have played a role in their success. We're looking forward to supporting them going forward and to find other strong teams to bank. With that, I'll hand the call over to Sandip to discuss the quarter.

Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Paul. Good day, everyone. As Paul mentioned, Franco-Nevada reported record financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. Our diverse portfolio of royalty and stream assets performed ahead of recent expectations, and we continue to benefit from higher precious metal prices. Precious metal prices, with gold in particular, continue to be strong. On Slide 4, you will see the comparison of commodity prices for Q3 2025 and Q3 2024. Gold and silver prices increased significantly year-over-year, with the average gold price higher by 40% in the quarter and average silver price higher by 34%. We also saw a rebound in prices for platinum and palladium, while prices for iron ore remained flat year-over-year, lower for oil, but we saw a significant increase in natural gas prices year-over-year. On Slide 5, we highlight some of the key financial metrics used to measure performance: total GEOs sold, net GEOs sold, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA. Total GEOs sold increased 26% to 138,772 in the quarter compared to 110,110 in the third quarter of 2024. Precious metal GEOs sold in the quarter were 119,109, higher by 41% compared to the prior year. Also, just under 50% of total GEOs sold were sourced directly from mines where precious metals are the primary commodity. For the quarter, we received strong contributions from a number of our key assets: Cobre Panama, Guadalupe, and Candelaria, and we also benefited from our recent acquisitions, Western Limb, Yanacocha, Porcupine, and Côté. This quarter, we recorded our first full quarter of revenue for both Porcupine and Côté. Approximately 11,000 GEOs were delivered and sold from Cobre Panama as we received GEOs related to the concentrate that had been stored on site since November 2023. In addition to better performance from Guadalupe and Candelaria and receiving GEOs from recent acquisitions, we also benefited from the continued ramp-up of operations at new mines, Tocantinzinho, Greenstone, and Salares Norte. With respect to the Hemlo NPI, the NPI was not as strong this quarter compared to earlier quarters this year due to lower production on Franco's Interlake claims on the property. Barrick is in the process of selling Hemlo, and we look forward to seeing what improvements the new team has planned for the mine. Diversified GEOs sold were 19,663 for the quarter compared to 25,733 for the prior year, despite diversified revenue being higher year-over-year, $67.1 million versus $61.2 million. The GEO sold reduction is due to the impact of higher gold prices when converting revenue to GEOs. For Q3 2025, net GEOs were 125,115 for Franco compared to 97,232 in Q3 2024. Net GEOs remove the cost of sales component for all GEOs so that GEOs sold are represented after costs. As you know, royalty GEOs have higher margins than stream GEOs. As you can see from the chart, total revenue increased by 77% for the quarter to $487.7 million, which is a record for Franco-Nevada. Precious metals accounted for 85% of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA, also a record, was 81% higher for the quarter at $427.3 million compared to $236.2 million in the third quarter of 2024. Slide 6 details the key financial metrics reported by the company. As mentioned, total GEOs sold were 138,772, generating $487.7 million in revenue in the third quarter. With respect to costs, we did have an increase in cost of sales compared to the prior year due to higher stream ounces sold, particularly Cobre Panama. Cost of sales was $47.2 million versus $31.9 million last year. Depletion increased to $87 million versus $54.2 million as we received more GEOs from Candelaria, Cobre Panama, and began depleting our recent transactions. This impacted depletion as those assets are currently higher per ounce depletion assets. Adjusted net income was $275 million or $1.43 per share for the quarter, both up 79% versus the prior year. One other transaction that did occur during the quarter was the sale of some equity investments. We sold a portion of our equity investment in Discovery Silver and received total proceeds of $84.4 million with a gain of $67.4 million recorded on the sale. Under our accounting policies, these gains are reported in other comprehensive income and not reflected in our earnings per share. However, the gain would have generated an additional earnings per share of $0.30. Slide 7 highlights the continued diversification of the portfolio. As mentioned, 85% of our revenue was generated by precious metals, with revenue being sourced 88% from the Americas. No asset contributed more than 10% of our revenue. Slide 8 illustrates the strength of our business model to continue to generate high margins. For the third quarter of 2025, the cash cost per GEO is $340 per GEO. This compares to $290 per GEO last year. As the gold price has risen, Franco has seen a significant increase in our margin per GEO. The margin was $3,116 per GEO in the quarter, an increase of 42% year-over-year. Slide 9 summarizes our updated guidance. We have benefited from an increase in GEOs from Cobre Panama and Côté during the first 9 months of 2025. That along with record gold prices has resulted in record financial results for the first 9 months. Based on GEOs sold to date and what our expectations are for Q4 2025, we expect to be at the higher end of our initial guidance range, which was 465,000 to 525,000. We've narrowed this range to the higher end and now expect total GEOs sold to be between 495,000 to 525,000. With respect to precious metals GEO sold guidance, our original guidance range was 385,000 to 425,000. With asset performance to date and precious metal GEOs received from Cobre Panama and Côté, we now expect to exceed the top end of the original guidance range. As a result, our updated guidance range for precious metal GEOs is 420,000 to 440,000. Slide 10 summarizes the financial resources available to the company. The company had $236.7 million in cash and cash equivalents on hand at the end of the quarter. When including our credit facility of approximately $1 billion and our equity investments, total available capital at September 30, 2025, is in excess of $1.8 billion. As well, we continue to be debt-free. Before I turn it over to the operator, I would just like to summarize the recent CRA Settlement that we achieved. On September 11, 2025, we reached a settlement with the Canada Revenue Agency, which provided for a final resolution of Franco-Nevada's tax dispute in connection with the reassessments under transfer pricing rules for the years 2013 to 2019 for our Mexican and Barbadian subsidiaries. Under the terms of the settlement, no payment of any tax in Canada is required on these foreign earnings for the subsidiaries for this period. We're glad to have this matter behind us and are very pleased with the settlement reached. And with that, I will pass it over to the operator, and we're happy to answer any questions.

Operator, Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq from Jefferies.

Fahad Tariq, Analyst

On the deal pipeline, can you talk a little bit more about the commodity focus? There were some articles recently talking about maybe expanding the gold business in Australia specifically. But at the same time, I know historically, Franco's strategy has been to try to be as countercyclical as possible. So just curious what the commodity focus is given where gold prices are today?

Paul Brink, President and CEO

Fahad, it's Paul. Thanks for the question. It's a good one. As usual, our #1 commodity focus is on precious metals here. The pipeline is good. So I think there's some good prospects of adding more gold deals. That said, gold prices are high. I think we are better positioned than most for two reasons. The one that I spoke a bit about in my comments there is in this environment, we expect strong organic growth. The second is we always have a bit of our business open to diversify it. We always have the discipline in this environment if there are better deals to do on the diversified side, we've got some room to do that. But as I say, most of the pipeline is currently gold. On Australia, I was down there visiting recently. We are speaking to a number of Australian investors and the press about our plans there. We have added a new person to our team in Australia, Matt Selby out of Perth, who's driving our business development there. We would like to grow our business in Australia. As you know, we have a ton of royalties that cover a huge amount of land in Australia, but it's not yet a big part of our revenue. I think they are particularly good prospects and very keen to find good teams in Australia that we can back and potentially do something similar to what we've done with G Mining or Discovery in the country.

Fahad Tariq, Analyst

Okay. Great. And maybe just as a follow-up, there were some comments probably now 2 months ago about looking at natural gas, given where natural gas prices were, maybe lithium brine transactions, given where lithium prices are, and maybe oil, although the last time, I think Franco-Nevada did the oil royalty was when oil was below $50 a barrel, so we're not quite there yet. Just maybe comments on those three commodities specifically.

Paul Brink, President and CEO

We're open to all three. As I said, right now, as we look at what is ahead of us in the pipeline, the most actionable is on the gold side. But on the other commodities, it's less driven by the commodities. It's more driven by asset quality and being able to get good value. So if there is good value in either of those areas, we'd be open to it.

Operator, Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Sathish Kasinathan from Bank of America.

Sathish Kasinathan, Analyst

This is Sathish on Lawson Winder's team. Just a follow-up on the pipeline. So you highlighted that you have a strong growth potential on the organic side with all the projects that you have under your portfolio. Does that mean that going forward, the focus is going to be more on the organic side instead of deals? Or how should we look at it?

Paul Brink, President and CEO

No, as I mentioned earlier, we have a strong pipeline and are consistently focused on closing new deals. My comment about organic growth is really about maintaining discipline. The market is optimistic, and we don’t need to overpay for assets right now because we expect solid organic growth. We have a reliable baseline, and any acquisitions will be additional growth. Our confidence in achieving good organic growth enables us to stay disciplined.

Sathish Kasinathan, Analyst

Okay. That is clear. Just one follow-up on Palmarejo. So it had a huge quarter this quarter. It seems it is driven by a higher proportion of ore from the region that is covered by the stream. How should we look at Q4?

Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer

It's Sandip here. Yes, I would expect similar levels to what we've averaged for the first 9 months of the year. Our projection for the year is anywhere between 40,000 to 50,000 GEOs from Palmarejo. So that's the guidance at this stage.

Operator, Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Heiko Ihle from H.C. Wainwright.

Case Bongirne, Analyst

This is Case calling in for Heiko as he's on another call. Just on our end, we're thinking out loud here, 3 months ago, gold was just below $3,400. Today, we're just below $4,000. Obviously, a pretty huge change in price, not really expected by most. You guys have been a huge benefactor of this, probably have more cash flows now than you budgeted for in recent past. So the question is, has the recent gold price environment maybe changed your mind a bit regarding shareholder returns as it relates to the higher dividend, potential share buyback, or continued M&A, given the pricing environment?

Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Really, no, it's business as usual. As Paul highlighted, our priority is to continue to add good quality assets to the portfolio, focus on precious metals, and then adding diversified if there's very good opportunities available to us. So that is the #1 priority for capital deployment. With respect to the dividend, it's a decision we sit down with our Board at the beginning of every year and go through what's in the pipeline, what our cash flow projections are, and make a recommendation on how much we should increase that dividend. Our philosophy on the dividend is sustainable and progressive; to raise it every year, never be in a position where you cut it regardless of what's happening with commodity prices. So we will be increasing it next year. The quantum is still yet to be determined, but there will definitely be an increase. As for buybacks, that comes down to what's the best use of a dollar. And for us, we think the best use of a dollar is still adding good quality assets to the portfolio. So share buybacks are not something that we're considering at this time.

Operator, Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu from CIBC.

Cosmos Chiu, Analyst

This is Cosmos from Cosmos' team at CIBC. Maybe my first question is on the NPIs. Paul and Sandip, as you know, I'd like to ask about these NPIs during periods of more robust precious metal prices. But as you mentioned, Hemlo did not have the best quarter in Q3, in part due to less ore being mined at Interlake. I guess my question is, I'm just wondering how much visibility do you have in terms of what's being mined from the different areas into Q4 and potentially into 2026 as well? And how is the potential change in ownership going to potentially change that thinking?

Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer

Cosmos, in terms of visibility, it's limited. Obviously, there's a mine plan put in place at the beginning of each year and a budget that the operator does. So in this case, Barrick can move away from that and sometimes based on timing, and that was what happened in Q3. In this environment at these gold prices, we do expect the NPI to do quite well, and it did in the first part of this year. I think part of the impact of Q3 was also with the sale going through and just probably some impact on the efficiency of the mining on site. With respect to the new ownership group, that transaction has not closed yet; obviously, they're seeing something there to be spending over $1 billion to acquire that asset, so that is encouraging. It's a wait-and-see approach at this time as to what changes or improvements they will make, but I'm excited to see what their plan is and what they envision, and I think we'll have more information over the next few months.

Cosmos Chiu, Analyst

And how about the Musselwhite 5% NPI? Again, I'm seeing Q3, it didn't really increase that much from previous quarters in 2025. Like when does that one kick in? How should we look at that one at Musselwhite?

Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So Musselwhite is again, it's a profit calculation. We have limited visibility at this time. We get paid once a year, which is after year-end. So right now, what you're seeing from our numbers is just an estimate. We haven't seen what capital is being spent. We'll get the calculation, as I said, post year-end, and there'll be a true-up there. We're a conservative group, so our numbers are conservative. I'm hopeful that the actual number that comes out at the end of the year is much higher. But at this stage, it's our best estimate.

Paul Brink, President and CEO

It's early days on both of those assets, Cosmos. But I got to say, I'm delighted with the change in ownership in both. Bob Quartermain and their team. Bob, as you probably know, started his career at Hemlo, drilled some of the original discovery holes there. So having that team in place, led by Bob, there's no doubt in my mind that they are going to drill and expand that ore body, which I think is going to do terrifically well for us over time. Similarly, on Musselwhite, I'm excited that it's the older team led by Jason Simpson, very capable group, also very aggressive, having great success in drilling out the strike extension of that deposit. All these things take a little bit of time before they start showing up as cash flow. But I think very positive that you've got both those teams focused on expanding those assets.

Cosmos Chiu, Analyst

I agree with you. I noticed that the company sold some Discovery shares in the quarter. How much of that was related to your goal of being debt-free by the end of the quarter, especially since you had drawn $175 million on your credit facilities to fund the Expanded Silicon acquisition? How much of that was driven by your desire to eliminate debt? Also, what is the plan for the remaining Discovery shares and your G Mining shares?

Paul Brink, President and CEO

Cosmos, it's Paul. Our plan with G Mining and Discovery is to act as their financial bankers, not only through streams and royalties but also by holding equity as long-term investors. However, we recognize that the equity portion of our business is not central to our focus, so we do intend to take profits over time. Regarding Discovery, we experienced strong share price performance, and we also had some existing debt. These two factors led us to sell a small portion of our position, allowing us to secure a good gain and pay down the debt. Nevertheless, in the long run, we will maintain our holdings in their stock and continue to support the company.

Cosmos Chiu, Analyst

I have a question regarding Western Limb. I noticed it had strong results in Q3, and you mentioned that PGM prices have outperformed gold since the acquisition, which is positive. However, I’d like to clarify a few points because this transaction seems a bit complex. I understand that gold is related to PGM production, with delivery linked to the 4E PGM production. In the MD&A, you stated that the current ratio is 82% PGM to 18% gold, whereas the press release from earlier this year during the acquisition indicated a 70% PGM to 30% gold ratio. I want to confirm if PGM prices have indeed surpassed gold prices and how that impacts your stream.

Eaun Gray, Executive

Cosmos, it's Eaun speaking. Thank you for the question. I think it's a very good question. I would say, first of all, delighted with the performance of platinum. It has outpaced gold to a certain degree. And we do benefit from that both directly and indirectly. So you'll note that there is a portion of the stream that is platinum, so we do enjoy the appreciation in those platinum revenues immediately. Secondarily, you're quite right that what we've done is linked the gold deliveries to the 4E PGM production. So as the basket improves, as Sibanye looks at options for the assets, we would benefit indirectly from that as well. And as you'll probably know, there are two distinct ore bodies in these deposits, the UG2 and the Merensky. This structure mitigates any risk of volatility for mining from one versus the other for us and provides a more stable stream of gold revenues to Franco. So that's why that was done.

Cosmos Chiu, Analyst

Congrats on a very strong Q3.

Operator, Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek from Scotia Bank.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

I just wanted to come back to the transaction environment in a little more detail. I guess it's divided into three sections. I'm going to start on the precious metals opportunities that you're seeing out there. When we last spoke because lots of things have happened with this rapid rise in the gold price, the opportunities were in the $100 million to $500 million range. I'm trying to understand if that's still what you're seeing out there. And is it still for funding of asset sales or still funding for asset builds? I'm just wondering if that has changed at all? And are you seeing more competition now in the market with Zijin coming in and other players? And are you finding it's taking longer to get deals done? That's my first question on the precious metals.

Eaun Gray, Executive

Okay. Thank you, Tanya. It's Eaun speaking again. It's a very good question. When we last spoke, I indicated a similar environment to what we had seen in prior quarters. I would reiterate that, that continues to be the case. In terms of deal size, certainly, and also in terms of the type of transaction. So we do see good opportunities in asset sales as likely over the coming quarters. Likewise, good potential project financing as well. I think those are two kind of legs of the stool, and we look to back teams in both of those types of financing, utilizing similar structures to what we would have done with Discovery or G Mining. So we're quite optimistic about more of those transactions as we move forward. There are also some high-quality third-party royalties that are out there, and we continue to look at those and selectively execute on transactions like that when they come available. Hopefully, that's helpful.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

And are you finding that there is more competition and taking longer to complete deals with this higher gold price? I'm just trying to understand how tight that market is?

Eaun Gray, Executive

Sure. I would say not a noticeable change in the competitive landscape really from my perspective. What's defined recent periods is volatility, volatility in prices and volatility in terms of a number of other factors at play in the market. As things kind of settle down and find more of a base, I think we'll see more transactions happen. When you have significant moves in metal prices, of course, for any type of transaction on the short term, it makes it a bit more difficult to execute. But I think we'll see hopefully some more stability as we move forward.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

Okay. Thank you, Eaun, for that on the precious metal side. On the non-precious metal side, I know we talked about lithium and natural gas and oil. So I wanted to ask whether that extends to also iron ore, if that's still something you're looking at? And also what's the size in a non-precious metals deal are you seeing transactions similarly in that $100 million to $500 million range? And does iron ore or maybe potash also fit within that at this point?

Paul Brink, President and CEO

So Tanya and Paul, as I mentioned earlier, what we see as immediately actionable in our pipeline is focused on precious metals. However, we are open to other commodities like lithium, oil and gas, and iron ore if there are valuable transactions. Regarding potash, we successfully acquired an option on the Autazes potash project in Brazil. If that project reaches financing, we have the option to buy a royalty. All of these represent our future prospects.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

And size-wise, Paul, what are we looking at in those types of transactions?

Paul Brink, President and CEO

As I say, they were open in concept to transactions. Nothing that I can say is immediate in the pipeline. But you know what our guidance is on diversified. It's a limited part of our portfolio. So I don't expect anything large.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

Okay. So under $500 million. Okay. And then maybe just on my third portion of this, as you look at the landscape out there, how do you assess corporate transactions vis-a-vis some of these other opportunities?

Paul Brink, President and CEO

We always run our pencil over the other companies, Tanya, to see if there is good value. Nothing has changed from what we've said in the past. It comes down to you've got $1 to spend and where are you going to get the best return for your dollar. We typically find that, that is in doing private deals. And I'd say that's where we currently are again.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

Okay. And then just maybe if I could ask on the equity interest, I think $625 million of equity investments. Just with the sale of the Discovery Silver, and I don't know what else may have been sold. Can you just kind of remind me, Sandip, what are the biggest portion of that $625 million? Discovery Silver, G Mining, is there anything else that's public?

Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer

Sorry, Tanya, Labrador Iron Ore Royalty, LIF. Those are the 3 largest positions.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

Okay. So the Labrador is in there as well. Okay. No, that's very good. And congrats on a good quarter.

Operator, Operator

And your next question comes from the line of John Tumazos from John Tumazos Independent Research.

John Tumazos, Analyst

Could you elaborate on the extra royalty on Gold Quarry buy-in? It's famously discovered over 40 years ago. Is the coverage the underground mining from the feeder zone with the open pit oxide all used up? Or are there more oxides that are economic because gold is $4,000. I'm wondering what the sizzle is there.

Eaun Gray, Executive

John, it's Eaun speaking. Thanks for the question. I'd say, first of all, we're very happy to add to our position on Gold Quarry. This is incremental to what we already have there. In reality, this royalty is structured with a minimum, which is based on a number of factors, one of which is the amount of reserves. So as those change based on a number of assumptions, one of which often would, of course, be gold price, that can trigger a change in the minimums. So in terms of what makes it attractive to us, there's that potential for sure. I think as well, based on the current level of payments, it provides a very healthy rate of return. So very pleased to add that, and the coverage is the same as set out for the existing royalty in the asset handbook, which I would have you refer to.

Paul Brink, President and CEO

And John, there's a pushback of the pit wall to the north and the east that's been contemplated over time, not something that's currently on the books, but the hopes and dreams are with high gold prices that, that is something that would go ahead and that we could get a lot more from that royalty.

John Tumazos, Analyst

If I could ask one more. On Discovery, the quick calculation I made was that you sold 27.8 million shares and had 52.2 million left, and that you received USD 3.04 per share. Is that about right?

Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer

So John, we sold 26 million shares.

Operator, Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Daniel Major from UBS.

Daniel Major, Analyst

Can you hear me okay?

Paul Brink, President and CEO

Yes, loud and clear.

Daniel Major, Analyst

I apologize for being slightly late to the call if this has already been addressed. I want to discuss Cobre Panama. Considering your involvement, what do you see as the likely bottleneck in the restart process regarding the environmental audit, renegotiation of fiscal terms, and remobilizing the workforce? I've heard some comments from Argentina suggesting that it may be possible to complete the environmental audit and negotiate the fiscal terms by the end of the year. Do you believe that’s a realistic expectation?

Paul Brink, President and CEO

That is the timeline that President Mulino has outlined as his goal. While these processes can often take longer, they have consistently stated that this is their target. The audit is currently in progress, and there are no formal negotiations happening at this point, although the company and the government are preparing for that. Therefore, it remains possible that this timeline could be achieved. We are encouraged by the recent statements from President Mulino and those from Tristan Pascall, which acknowledge that the state will retain ownership of the minerals and that they are seeking to negotiate based on that understanding, which I view as a very positive sign. The government's remarks have been well-received, and I believe this news is beneficial. Additionally, there has been a notable shift in public sentiment; previously, 70% to 80% of people were against mining after the protests, but this has now transitioned to a slight majority that is more open to it, with a significant number willing to support mining under favorable terms, appropriate government participation, and sufficient transparency. Overall, things are definitely moving in a positive direction. As noted, there is progress on the ground with the government approving various preservation and maintenance tasks, as well as the shipping of concentrate and the power plant. The company has begun rehiring employees to initiate these activities, and there has been strong interest in those jobs, which I believe has contributed to the changing sentiment as people recognize the mine's economic significance.

Daniel Major, Analyst

Okay. The second one on the Arthur Gold project. I mean, how do you see the initial scope of the project? And obviously, we've seen some initial kind of projections, etc. But I mean, yes, from your perspective, how do you envisage the timeline and the initial scope of the project if you have to kind of hazard a range of expectations?

Eaun Gray, Executive

Thank you, Daniel. It's Eaun Gray speaking here. First of all, we're thrilled to be involved in this project with AngloGold. We think the geological upside on the royalty grounds over time is phenomenal. In terms of first steps in permitting, I understand that they need to start somewhere, even though the full deposit, in our view, likely hasn't emerged. So I think AngloGold's disclosure is around a Merlin-focused plan to start and then exploration, hopefully continuing from there. We have also been very happy to see the U.S. permitting environment has evolved quite positively over the last little while, and projects such as Stibnite where we're involved have moved along quite well. So in terms of permitting, we're hopeful on the timeframe as to when that can happen. I think there's got to be a significant over-under in exactly when that happens with any regulatory process, but we're hopeful that the mine would start in the early portion of the 2030s.

Operator, Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Derick Ma from TD Cowen.

Derick Ma, Analyst

At current gold prices, is there more leverage in royalties and streams on primary gold mines versus byproduct gold streams? And does that factor into the way you look at your portfolio, or your decision-making when assessing new opportunities?

Paul Brink, President and CEO

Good question, Derick. And yes, is the short answer. Obviously, when the gold price is running on a primary gold deposit, it allows operators when they look at their reserves. I think a lot of operators are currently looking at the reserves to figure out what price they are going to use at year-end. I think at the end of last year, the average for the industry was about $1,800 an ounce. I'm guessing at this, but I think the industry will be over $2,000 an ounce for the gold reserves. It means lower cutoff grades, and it means a lot of material that's going to move into the mine plan. Put that forward just a couple of years; let's assume we're at $4,000 gold in 3 years' time. You could easily see the industry at $2,600, $2,800 gold for reserves. Even if the gold price stayed flat in that scenario, our stock price would be worth a lot more because you get a huge amount of ounces that get moved into reserves. On our portfolio, about half the assets are gold streams on copper mines. Half the assets are royalties on principal gold assets. I think that's a big driver. On the other side, copper prices are doing great, too. The same thing applies for a copper asset; higher copper prices, you'll get a lot more material moved into those mine plans. So on both sides, I think we should see great organic growth.

Derick Ma, Analyst

Okay. Great. And maybe a question on Argentina. Two of your longer-term growth assets that you've listed, Taca Taca and San Jorge are in Argentina, midterm elections are behind us now. What are your current views on Argentina as a mining jurisdiction and as an investment destination for Franco-Nevada going forward? And then maybe a follow-up on top of that is how many GEOs for Taca Taca and San Jorge are in your 2029 outlook?

Paul Brink, President and CEO

Yes. Maybe I'll just speak about the assets, and then Sandip can comment on the guidance. San Jorge is a mid-sized but good grade copper-gold asset in Mendoza. The company tried to get a permit probably more than a decade ago, didn't quite get there at the time. Things have changed materially. In meetings early this year, I met with the Governor for Natural Resources in Mendoza, and she was very encouraging, saying San Jorge could be the very first of the assets to move ahead under the new RIGI program. So we're very encouraged by that. The company is working on raising financing to move that forward. Next up, Taca Taca. We're very hopeful that that is the next big copper asset that First Quantum will build. I think as we all know, RIGI is a 2-year window to get your applications in, and we're a year into that. So there's another 12 months to get that application in, and then companies need to start spending their minimum spends over the next 2 years. I think this is highly likely that you'll see spending going ahead on Taca Taca in the short term. For Argentina, we don't need to invest anything on those assets. We already own those interests. So that will happen regardless. For Argentina, it is the big question. A huge amount of assets there are going to attract a lot of investment dollars. So we will consider Argentina. What has been put forward in RIGI is very positive. It addresses the two big issues you have. The one is currency convertibility. That does get guaranteed if you enter into the RIGI program. And then the second thing is to make sure that it has teeth that survives through multiple regimes; you do need rights to international arbitration, and RIGI does afford that, too. So both those things go a long way to making Argentina an attractive destination.

Sandip Rana, Chief Financial Officer

And Derick, just in terms of the 2029 guidance for those 2 assets, obviously, they still have to be built. So we were conservative in our estimates, but on a combined basis, it's about 5,000 GEOs.

Operator, Operator

There are no further questions on the phone line. I will now turn the conference over to Candida Hayden for any closing remarks.

Candida Hayden, Senior Analyst, Investor Relations

This concludes our third quarter 2025 results conference call. We expect to release our year-end 2025 results after market close on March 10. Thank you for your interest in Franco-Nevada. Goodbye.

Operator, Operator

And this concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.