Earnings Call
Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT)
Earnings Call Transcript - FRPT Q1 2020
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Good afternoon, and welcome to Freshpet's first quarter 2020 earnings conference call and webcast. On today's call are Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer; and Dick Kassar our Chief Financial Officer; Scott Morris, Chief Operating Officer; and Heather Pomerantz, EVP of Finance will also be available for Q&A. Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Federal Securities laws. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties, that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in these forward-looking statements. Please refer to the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Company's press release issued today for a detailed discussion of the risk that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today. Please note that on today's call, management will refer to a non-GAAP financial measures such as EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA among others. While the Company believes these non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for investors. The presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or the substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's press release, for a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP. Finally, the Company has produced a presentation that contains many of the key metrics that will be discussed on this call. That presentation can be found on the Company's investor website. Management's commentary will not specifically refer to the presentation, rather at the summary of the results, they will discuss today. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Billy Cyr, Chief Executive Officer.
William Cyr, CEO
Thank you, Katie, and good afternoon everyone. I'm talking with you from Bethlehem, PA; Dick is at home in Manhattan; and Scott and Heather are at their homes in New Jersey. We will do our best to not trip over each other on the call. And please excuse any barking in the background. Obviously, we are in the midst of highly unusual times, so our comments will be a bit different than we would typically provide, so that we can give you a clear understanding of this unique operating environment. How we are addressing it, the opportunities and risks it creates, and any assumptions underlying our guidance. We will also provide you with our quarterly metrics and analysis, including the presentation we typically provide and we'll highlight where the coronavirus crisis might be creating distortion both favorable and unfavorable. We will also share some April results where we have the data and it is relevant, in the interest of maximum transparency in this turbulent time, that will allow you to see the pantry destocking that occurred in April, following the March surge and consider the two months together for a more complete picture. To be as transparent about what is happening in this rapidly changing environment, our prepared remarks will be longer than usual. First and foremost, we view the coronavirus threat as a significant public health challenge and take our role as an essential business seriously. Being essential business gives us the privilege to stay open, but also comes with the responsibility to operate safely, limiting the spread of the coronavirus amongst our employees, their families, and our communities and serving the 3 million pet parents who rely on us to feed their pets with high-quality food. I believe we are living up to these responsibilities. And in doing so, we are protecting and hopefully enhancing the long-term value of Freshpet for our many stakeholders. As we detailed in our press release on April 9, we've gone to great lengths to protect our employees and greatly reduce the risk of coronavirus in our facilities. We hired third-party nurses to take the temperature and administer a brief health check of employees and any of the limited visitors we allow when they enter our kitchens. On average the nurses direct two people per day for further screening and have succeeded at identifying people who have the virus, but had no fever or cough. We retained a third-party deep-cleaning company to clean our offices, common spaces, and locker rooms on a weekly basis, in addition to our stepped-up cleaning and daily sanitation. We installed additional space to allow our employees to spread out at the breaks and in meetings. We provide face coverings for every employee and required their use. We installed the highest quality air filtration to reduce the risk of airborne virus transmission, staggered our shifts to avoid concentration of employees in our locker rooms and common areas. Installed sanitizer dispensers inside virtually every door and sanitized any meeting rooms before and after each meeting. We suspended our absenteeism policy, so that no employee would feel compelled to come to work, if they were not feeling well. As a result, our absenteeism increased from 2% to 3% to approximately 11% since we implemented this policy. To compensate for this, we brought in incremental staffing and paid for overtime. We followed all CDC and FDA guidelines for quarantining employees who may have been exposed including paid leave - while awaiting test results, if they test positive for the virus or have been exposed to someone who tested positive or is awaiting test results. Our purpose in all these activities has been to prevent the virus from entering our facilities, eliminating places it to harbor within our facilities and limiting its ability to spread in our facilities. We cannot protect an employee from getting the virus in a broader community, but we can try very hard to prevent it from entering our facilities and spreading there. We aspire to make our Freshpet facilities, the safest place our employees could spend their day. To show our appreciation to our employees who continue to work through this crisis and help us meet the demand, we paid a $500 after-tax bonus to all Kitchens employees in April, and have given all Kitchens employees a $50 gift card to local restaurants every two weeks since mid-March to both give them a break from home cooking and also help local restaurants survive the mandatory closing of their dining rooms. The feedback from our employees has been very positive and they have rewarded us with outstanding efforts. Simply put, taking care of our employees ensures that we can meet the needs of pet parents. That is what we are doing. And so far, our efforts are succeeding in preventing the virus from spreading within our facilities. But we remain vigilant, continually reassessing our needs, getting guidance from the CDC, FDA, trade associations, and other food manufacturers, advice from our Board, and input from our employees. All of these efforts come at a cost. The cost that we think is well worth the expense. Dick will provide more details on those. In addition to the incremental efforts to protect our employees and continued production there have been other impacts from the coronavirus crisis. In a minute, I will list some of the more notable ones, but as you consider them, I want you to know that any impact from these events is temporary, and can be offset with other incremental activities in our toolkit and still deliver our net sales plan for the year. And they certainly will not have any significant impact on our long-term goals nor our confidence in our ability to get to those goals. They will, however, change the mix of tools we can use to drive growth this year. And we want to lean in to continue driving that growth. We will replace the volume gains we had anticipated from fridge replacements and new products with increased investments in advertising and e-commerce, taking advantage of some significant opportunities in front of us. But as you all know, the situation is fluid. We will continue to monitor it and make any adjustments in both our plans and guidance as necessary. I also want you to remember that, aside from the challenges of keeping our employees safe, the biggest disruptions we are seeing impact the retail environment and our business is better insulated from that type of disruption than many CPG companies. We do not depend on retailers discounting or promotional activity to drive volume or trial. Advertising drives over 80% of our growth. This crisis has not impacted our ability to advertise and media rates are coming down, potentially making it more efficient. We do get the last 20% of our annual growth from the combination of enhanced retail presence, new stores, and from the contribution of new items, but that can be offset with incremental advertising. And we got fridges into some big stores before the crisis hit. Finally, our consumer demand is very consistent and not very fickle. The households that serve Freshpet are very loyal, and dogs eat the same amount every day. So we have strong and steady demand with the vast majority of our growth coming from advertising, that is a good place to be right now. And, we fully intend to take advantage of that strong position once our supply catches up to demand in Q2. So with those reminders, here are a few of the most significant impacts we've experienced or are watching closely. First, due to our capacity limits in Q1 and the tremendous surge in buying, we could not ship to demand and drew down trade inventories, resulting in out of stocks. At times, we were only able to ship 75% of the orders on our books. Even without the surge in buying, behind the coronavirus, we told you at our Investor Day in our April 9 release that our demand would exceed consumption in Q1 and then we would catch up in Q2. The surge related to COVID-19 only exacerbated the situation and we ended the quarter with very low trade inventories, particularly on our bags and a very large order backlog carried into Q2. This also resulted in a bit of mix benefit in Q1, as we had ample capacity on higher margin roles and continued to ship those orders while we cut back orders. Before the surge in demand, we estimated that the gap between scanner sales and shipments for the quarter could be 3 to 4 points. And in actuality, it was about 5.5 points resulting in roughly $4 million of net sales that moved into the second quarter. But it is important to note, we believe a meaningful portion of the actual in-home consumption will happen in Q2. So our shipments might end up closely matching the actual consumption, thanks to our capacity limitations in Q1. We've already begun to see that; we expect our April net sales to be up over 30% versus the year ago, while Freshpet's Nielsen Mega Channel consumption for the four weeks through mid-April post-surge averaged high single-digit growth, and we've still have not restored normal trade inventories and we have a sizable backlog of orders to carry into May. At this pace, we expect to replenish trade inventories by the end of Q2 and having a more normal shipment consumption balance heading into Q3. We are seeing a gradual improvement in weekly consumption trends as April progresses and consumers draw down the pantry inventory they built in early March and our in-stocks improve. But there were some year-on-year distortion provided by the movement of Easter; May will provide a much clearer picture of the underlying consumer behavior and buying trends and should reflect much better in-stock levels for Freshpet. June should be even better as it will also reflect the impact of our return to advertising in May. The rate of dog adoptions and fostering soared in the midst of the crisis. Shelters in major cities reported a significant uptick in pet adoptions in February and March. While it is hard to tell how this will directly impact our business, it speaks volumes about how people feel about their pets when times are uncertain. That is likely in part why the pet food category has performed so well in recessions. Our retail partners stopped most planned new fridge installations and new product placements in early March. As a result, we've placed virtually no fridges in the month of March and don't expect many placements in Q2. For perspective, we placed a total of 111 new fridges in the first 24 days of April, below the pace we would normally expect, but not a complete stop. We did, however, place a significant number of full-size fridges on end caps in Walmart before retailers suspended their activity, and those were particularly high value and will drive volume all year long. Some customers are beginning to communicate revised plans, but most customers remain in flux. As a result, we do not expect to install as many fridges this year as we had previously outlined. At this point, we are expecting about 1,000 net new stores this year, down from 1,430 previously projected, and about 500 upgrades, down from 559 previously. We are, however, expecting to exceed our second/third fridge target of 500, likely exceeding 1,000, as I'll outline later. It's too early to say what the net of all these changes in fridge placements means, but there will be offset by the lean-in investments we intend to make, to drive growth. We expect the volume from new items to be less than what we had previously planned, as several customers did not put the new items on the shelf before they stopped planogram changes. Some of our larger customers had already stocked the new items and others have communicated that they will in Q3. New items only accounted for a small portion of our growth plan this year, so this impact is not significant; any impact on this can also be offset by our lean-in investments. We pushed our April advertising spending back into May and August due to the lack of supply we had after the surge in March. And when so many retailers were struggling to stock their stores, this could impact both our rate of household penetration and consumption growth in Q2, and also the timing of our ad spending, pushing a portion of it out of Q2 and into Q3. However, the media rates we are now getting from May and beyond are significantly more attractive than what we previously anticipated. The same retail kiosk that occurred in the U.S. also occurred in Canada and the UK, meeting the impact of the advertising investments we are making there as consumers flooded stores and loaded up on their existing brands. We will reassess our advertising timetable once those markets settle down a bit. We launched some production efficiency in the quarter. We put a higher priority on getting maximum output from our production lines than on labor efficiency. So we deliver deliberately over-scheduled labor to offset absenteeism. Despite that, though, we still had sporadic days where we did not have enough labor to run all four lines in our kitchens. We believe that absenteeism is costing us about 5% to 10% of our output, even with the incremental staffing we brought in. Based on what we know, that issue will continue into Q3 - or into Q2, and likely into Q3. The construction of Kitchens 2.0 now appears to be delayed by about one month. We were able to continue construction after a two-week delay, while our contractor qualified the project as an essential business. It's been hard to get all the subcontractors fully staffed every day, so we estimate that our Kitchens 2.0 will start-up at the end of September or early October instead of our previous plan of starting up in early September, with production at a significant rate in November. The delay in the startup of Kitchens 2.0 could impact our supply of Fresh From the Kitchen in Q3. We are bringing on a second shift that Kitchen South in Q2, so our overall bag capacity will meet our needs, while we could develop an issue with Fresh From the Kitchen. We don't think that will have a material impact on the year, but it will impact the quarterly cadence i.e., some net sales might move into Q4 from Q3 and could move some volume from Fresh From the Kitchen to our other bag product, roasted meals. We are closely watching our supply of various proteins, as all of you have read the meat packing industry has been hit hard by the coronavirus. While we have not experienced any extended interruptions to date and our chicken prices for the year are fixed. We have had to go to previously qualified second source suppliers from time to time. So we are watching this closely to head-off any potential future supply interruptions and have taken some steps to better protect our supply. I will also point out some really good work by our procurement team. Based on part of the potential for significant supply disruptions in late January and began to build inventory of ingredients and packaging materials then. So we arrived at the crisis with significantly larger supplies of many key ingredients and packaging. They also finalized some longstanding initiatives designed to put in place backup suppliers on key materials we source and on our fresh ingredients where we cannot build inventory; that does not mean that we have not had challenges, but challenges have been made significantly smaller and less disruptive, thanks to their good work. The question all of you are probably asking yourself is, where does this leave Freshpet overall? I would answer that in the following way. We feel very fortunate to have such a robust business; strong balance sheet and to have a plan that is working to protect our employees. And there is nothing in the current situation that tells us that our long-term strategy, plans and goals need to be altered; in fact, we remain very confident that despite the short-term chaos we see today, the long-term opportunity for Freshpet remains significant, our strategies remain sound and our team has proven its capability. We have strong demand, a proven growth model, and a diverse customer base; we are well-capitalized and have a strong organization. We've also learned quite a bit during this crisis that will strengthen us going forward. We are very well positioned for both short-term and long-term success. As a result of these changes, we have decided to make some incremental investments to offset any impact from the retail issues I described, capitalizing on a changing environment and leveraging our competitive strengths. We will invest in incremental second-half advertising. The combination of low media costs, a highly relevant message, increased pet adoptions, and incremental capacity is the ideal time to lean in on our advertising in the second half. Enhanced e-commerce; we have developed several initiatives designed to make it easier to acquire Freshpet, the e-commerce through all channels that offer Freshpet and are developing some new channels. This will include incremental second fridges to support Curbside pickup and pet specialty. Tagged advertising supporting online ordering and an SOS program that allows consumers who are desperate for Freshpet to order our most premium Homestyle Creations line and have it delivered to their home. Strength in retail coverage; given the challenges of stocking the stores, we are investing in incremental third-party retail coverage to quickly recover our in-stock conditions at a time when retailers can't keep up. The total amount of the incremental investment we are making is $4 million this year. Some of the volume we expect to get from that investment will offset the impact of the delays on fridges and new product placements, ensuring that we deliver our guidance, and some of that will come next year. In either case, we view it as a good investment to continue our momentum. Now, let me turn your attention to our first quarter results. I will preface this by saying that we are very encouraged by our start to the year and think that with only a few minor exceptions, they are reflective of the underlying strength of the business and they are better than our going-in plan. Due to our capacity constraints, we realized very little of the benefit of the surge in demand that you see in the scanner data. We will get and shipment volume in Q2. So this is probably one of the more normal quarters that a CPG company would report in this environment. For the quarter, we continued the strong top-line momentum we have been delivering since we began our Feed the Growth plan three years ago. We continue to demonstrate the profit gains from leveraging our increasing scale. This is the essence of our strategy and it is working. We've created a virtuous cycle where increased advertising drives increased velocity which drives increased distribution and that provides the added scale to both reinvest in the business and to also strengthen our bottom line. Our strategy is also working for pets and the pet parents who care for them. We are now producing pet food for more than 3 million households and that number keeps growing. Pet parents continue to write and call us to tell us about the amazing difference that Freshpet makes in their pets' lives. We firmly believe that we are just scratching the surface of the opportunity to change the pet food category, enabling pet parents to provide fresh, healthy less processed food designed for pets. In the first quarter, we delivered top-line growth of 28% and this was on top of 27% growth in the year-ago quarter. In fact, eight of our last nine quarters have had growth in excess of 25%. The growth was driven by continued strong consumption gains generated by the expanded household penetration we delivered in 2019. Nielsen Mega Channel consumption was up 33% behind 40% growth in grocery; 39% growth in mass, and 10% growth in big box pet. Prior to the surge in early March, our Nielsen Mega channel business was up 29% in line with our long-term trends. For the last 4 plus points of growth are likely related to the surge in buying and not representative of the underlying consumption. Velocity grew 17% and accounted for more than 60% of the year-over-year growth. Our core dog business, which is the sum of our dog rolls, roasted meals, and Fresh From the Kitchen main meal items and accounts for more than 90% of our business, was up 37.5% in the quarter. Our small but rapidly growing e-commerce business, which includes Curbside programs with our key customers, home delivery via services like Instacart and Shipt and fresh e-commerce like Amazon Prime Now and Fresh Direct was up 98% versus the year ago and now accounts for 3.3% of our business. More than 80% of that business went through our in-store fridge network. Curbside pickup now accounts for more than 50% of our e-commerce volume and was up 102% in the quarter. There is no doubt that a major shift to online consumption during the shelter-in-place weeks contributed to our growth, but we were seeing very strong growth before that as well. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $5.7 million, up $2.9 million or 100% versus the year-ago. As we demonstrated the significant leverage we get from scale, particularly in adjusted SG&A, excluding media. Progress against our key business drivers was as follows: expanding the consumer franchise, total household penetration grew 28% versus the year-ago to 2.58% in the quarter, and core dog penetration grew 33% to 2.0%. Buying rates were basically flat, which is what we would expect with such robust household penetration gains. We've included a chart in our investor presentation, the documents how the household penetration growth has impacted buying rate growth over time, so that you can see this phenomenon, but the long-term trend towards growth on both measures is very clear. We looked at the penetration data by week in March to see what impact the surge in demand had, and it was negligible, which makes sense. Consumers were not trying new items then, they were stocking up on items they already buy. We also looked at the buying rate data by week where we would expect to see some impact, but we saw very little. This is likely because it happened so late in the measured one-year period. And because our data suggests that consumers only bought about one extra week of Freshpet versus dry dog food where they bought almost one month's extra supply. Further, our out-of-stocks, and we believe consumers' tight fridge space limited their ability to buy forward. The second, strengthen Freshpet's retail presence. We only added 297 net new stores in the quarter, which was below our expectations. As I mentioned, new installations virtually stopped at the beginning of March. The same phenomenon occurred on upgrades and second fridges as we added 32 upgraded fridges and 15 second fridges, also fewer than anticipated. However, we will be picking up a large number of second fridges in Q2 as an Australian competitor that has been attempting to enter the U.S. market for several years, is now exiting. We expect to pick up a significant amount of their space and acquire those fridges, totaling more than 500, that are largely in the pet specialty channel. While we are thrilled to get the space, the validation of the strength of our business that this decision provides is even more meaningful. In total, we expect to add more than 1,000 second fridges over the balance of the year. Third, increased capacity in addition to our Kitchens 2.0 project; we started up the small-sized line at Kitchen South in February. Production is going very well and running ahead of our plan. We are planning on adding a second shift there in Q2, that will provide added buffer against any supply interruptions. Additionally, we've begun hiring in Ennis, Texas. We now have five employees hired to support the planning, design, and construction of that facility already and more are on the way. I will now turn it over to Dick to discuss our Q1 financials in more detail and our outlook for 2020.
Dick Kassar, CFO
Thank you, Billy and good afternoon everyone. When you consider all the disruption that occurred in quarter one, we accomplished quite a bit and delivered strong results, which were better than what was included in our internal plan. We announced our new five by 2025 strategic plan to add 5 million new households by 2025. We completed an equity offering that netted $252 million and renewed or renegotiated our credit agreement. We now have the capital necessary to support our growth plans through 2025 and we got all that done against the backdrop of the coronavirus crisis. As Billy indicated, quarter one net sales of $70.1 million, up 28% versus the year-ago period, while many companies report somewhat inflated results for quarter one, because of the panic-driven buying in March. We think that was a very small portion of our growth. In fact, our capacity constraints limited our growth that we did not borrow much if any sales from quarter two. As Billy indicated, we began quarter two with trade inventories well below our normal operating conditions and are still rebuilding that pipeline. We expect that to catch up in quarter two, as Billy reported our April results show that happening with April sales, up greater than 30%. We invested $11.8 million in advertising in the quarter, up 17% versus year-ago and consistent with our plan. We did invest in new ads once the shelter-in-place orders began reminding people this message that pets don't know why we are home so much. They are just glad we are and that we should all take care of each other. That advertising was named one of the top 10 breakthrough ads of quarter one by Ace Metrix. Now it has more than 2,000 ads tested. Five of our ads were recognized with Super Bowl ads. More importantly it delivered the strongest response to our advertising you've seen in quite some time, despite all of the distractions. I think that is a good indicator that our team is both nimble and also has done very good work. While these that have been and will be key to our success. Adjusted gross margin for the quarter was 49.5%, down 90 bps from the year-ago period, slightly higher than quarter four 2019. Quarter one includes lots of moving parts, including the startup of the final line at a 24/7 schedule. Higher processing costs, a small mix benefit driven by the availability of capacity on our higher margin roll line at quarter-end and higher selling prices. Adjusted SG&A in the quarter was $28.9 million or 41.3% of net sales, an improvement of 210 basis points versus the year-ago period. Media spending was up 1.7% versus the year-ago period. When you exclude media spending, SG&A improved by 250 bps versus the year-ago. So we're not going to invest the incremental $4 million of lean-in spending, we would easily deliver our total of 700 bps of SG&A improvement by 2020. However, that extra spending will likely cause it to come up a little bit short this year, but that increase will likely not repeat next year. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $5.7 million, up 2.9% or 100% from the year-ago period. These financial metrics demonstrate the meaningful benefit from scale we get across our P&L, and are an essential part of the virtuous cycle embedded in our Feed the Growth plan. It was also a good indicator of our ability to grow adjusted EBITDA in excess of net sales. Now that we achieve meaningful scale. From time to time, we'll choose to increase investments to capture incremental growth opportunities. But excluding those opportunities, we expect to continue to generate scaled benefits in the P&L and expand adjusted EBITDA margins for the foreseeable future. We are very encouraged by these strong results, but we're also mindful of the significant uncertainty in the external environment. At this point we are reiterating our net sales guidance despite the disruptions. But are reducing our adjusted EBITDA guidance to reflect the incremental investments we are making to replace the volume loss due to the delays in retail activity. That investment would total approximately $4 million this year and will ensure we deliver our net sales guidance and position us to accelerate into our Kitchens 2.0 capacity. We are also adding back higher costs of operating from the COVID-19 crisis. We believe we will incur $4 million of extra costs related to the COVID-19 crisis, including enhanced compensation for our employees, increased efforts to protect them, higher cost to protect our supply chain, and other related costs. Our guidance now for net sales of greater than $310 million and adjusted EBITDA greater than $44 million. Given how fluid the external environment is, we want to be clear about the assumptions that support that guidance. We are assuming the following: retailers resume a significant portion of their fridge placements and new item distribution in quarter three. We believe they will, and this is what we have been told by many of our customers. Additionally, we are assuming that the presence of significant restrictions on shopping in-store doesn't prevent reasonable consumption and replenishment patterns similar to what we have seen historically. Data for April suggests that this is a reasonable conclusion, but we are not certain on this yet. Effectiveness of our media investments is not adversely impacted by the changing consumer environment. This is the most important factor for us as media drives the lion's share of our growth. We are optimistic that the combination of lower media costs, increased interest in pets, and our ability to refresh our message will deliver effectiveness at least as strong as in prior years, once we go back on air. Additionally, premium pet food has performed very well in previous recessions. So the evidence would support that we should do well, but we are watching this carefully. Also, we do not encounter any significant supply interruptions, either upstream from us or over our facilities. We are doing everything possible to ensure our continuous operation, but we cannot guarantee they won't have a significant adverse event that could impact our ability to make or distribute Freshpet. We can sustain incidental interruptions, as we have, while we cannot absorb extended outages. We just don't carry that much inventory. Costs we incurred to manage the crisis are $4 million or less. Our internal estimates for the quarter of the efforts we are doing now support that, but we don't know if any new actions will be required. Costs we are incurring and anticipating include the direct compensation payments to employees, incremental sanitizing and social distancing costs, the impact of higher absenteeism and the need for incremental staffing and the cost of health checks for employees. In quarter one, we spent about $220,000 for these efforts. In quarter two, we estimate we will spend $2.3 million. We have no major customers' credit issues as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. Our grocery and mass customers seem to be benefiting from the broader surge in demand, but they are also covering higher costs. Specialty retailers, which account for about 10% of our business in quarter one, have not experienced the same benefits. We remain very committed to helping those customers succeed in this turbulent environment, but we are a small part of their overall business. This is not an all-inclusive list. For that please consult the risk section of our latest 10-Q SEC filings. We wanted you to know about the major factors that we are considering in establishing our guidance. These times required that kind of transparency and the database approach we'd like to bring to the business. We are very bullish on the consumer interest in Freshpet and our ability to drive profitable growth over the long haul. Any hesitation we have is driven by the uncertainty of the retail environment, supply chain, and overall economic environment in the near-term. For us to say that we have a crystal ball, and know how this will unfold, it would be a gross overstatement and unfair to our investors. Our liquidity remains very strong, as a result of the equity offering completed in late February. We raised $252 million, of which we used $76 million to pay down our line of credit. At quarter-end we had $169.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, or short-term certificates of deposit. In early April, we amended and expanded our credit agreement, now about $165 million, a senior secured credit facility that we've not yet drawn on. We believe those resources and the cash we expect to generate from operations is sufficient to meet our long-term capital needs. We have invested $24.7 million of capital against the Kitchen 2.0 project so far. That project is designed to increase our capacity, and that total spending on those projects to date is $71 million. Working capital increases offset P&L gain, a seasonal phenomenon for our business. So, cash used in operations was $3.8 million. We continue to expect positive cash flow from operations for the year. I'll now turn it back to Billy for closing comments.
William Cyr, CEO
Thanks, Dick. As Dick said, with a strong first quarter and almost any year, that would be a harbinger of things to come. But this is not just any year. We are all dealing with a significant amount of uncertainty in the external environment. When that happens, the smartest thing to do is control what you can control - keep your eyes wide open, adapt quickly to new information and changing circumstances, and take care of your employees, customers, suppliers, and consumers. If we do these well, we will come out on the other side stronger than we went in. And we are pretty strong when this all started. We are incredibly well positioned to succeed. We are winning brand with a strong product, an exceptional idea behind it. Growing consumer interest in less processed, more natural foods and treating our pets well, a highly capable organization is proven to be up to the challenge in front of us, and a strong balance sheet. We are extremely grateful to our teammates who have worked so diligently under very challenging circumstances. We are also very appreciative of the work done by our customers, suppliers, and their employees. We are all in this together. I'm proud of how our industry has pulled together to support each other and we remain committed to working collaboratively with them and all the federal, state, and local officials who are fighting this public health crisis. And finally, we can't say enough about the work of the professionals in the medical field who are on the front lines of this fight. Our thoughts are with them all, and we hope that they have the opportunity to go home to the love and affection of a dog or cat at the end of their long days. We are deeply grateful for their service and sacrifices. That concludes our overview. We'll now be glad to take your questions, operator?
Operator, Operator
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. In the interest of time, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question comes from Ken Goldman with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed with your question.
Kenneth Goldman, Analyst
Hi, good afternoon everybody and thank you as always for all the color and the detail is very appreciated. I wanted to ask two questions. First, one of the risks, you talked about in terms of your guidance is that you're assuming that in the third quarter there is a more normal refrigerator rollout or at least some recovery there. But I think you also said that a lot of your customers are still sort of - I forget the exact phrase you used, I think you said influx and you're not getting exact sort of guidance from them as to what to expect. So just wanted to kind of take your temperature, a little bit on where, how high your confidence level is that that fridge rollout will be as you expect in that third quarter?
William Cyr, CEO
Ken, let me just give you a comment and Scott can probably give you a little bit more color on it. But I would say that every single day, we get more detail from customers to get more and more comfortable with their sort of return to normalcy. So for example, we've seen some customers just this week announce that they were restoring more normal store hours, initiating planogram changes, and whatnot. So our assessment is based on a look, customer by customer what their current status is and what commitments that they've made to us. So I feel pretty good that the schedule in the outline that we've given you to get you to the thousand net new stores this year, is deliverable; but Scott probably has a little bit more color on that.
Scott Morris, COO
Sure. So, I think it's - we've mentioned it in the script, I know there's a lot of information there. And as you've kind of become familiar with the company, the vast majority of the sales growth through the year is really driven by the advertising. The stores are critical, because we obviously want to have more ACV over the course of the year, but it's about 80% of the total increase in sales over the course of the year is really driven by the advertising piece. So the fridge piece is important, but I just want to put that in context first. The other thing that we're seeing is, we know that we probably won't hit quite the number of total stores this year, incremental new stores, but we're able to offset that with the second fridges. We actually feel as though we're going to - we're looking like we're going to have an incremental 500 second fridges over the course of the year, and that will overall kind of net out to a similar contribution from our kind of fridge growth over the course of the year. So, I think that's - I think important to take into consideration. And as retailers and everybody gets more comfortable with the environment, we're seeing kind of the whole planning of fridges continue to come back in. There are some extra precautions, obviously we're putting in place. And we've actually even seen a fair number of fridges installed even through this quarter, believe it or not into Q2. So we like the progress we've double-checked and triple-checked with some people, and I think that those second fridges will be a big offset.
William Cyr, CEO
Ken, let me just add one other point to it is, as Scott said, we've done - we did 111 fridges through April 24. So we have a pretty good handle of what the retailers are capable of. But I think if you take a long look at what retailers are learning in this context and Scott talked about sort of how our business model develops, but a lot of the retailers were saying that this crisis has allowed them to figure out really what are the categories, what are the segments, they want to be in, what are the businesses that make the most sense. And a lot of them are now starting to discover that Freshpet is a pretty big trip driver, high value consumer to bring in the store. So, as they think about how they're going to come out of this, I think we're actually going to have a higher level of importance to the retailer than we did going into it. We are valued for our growth and for the value to shoppers, but I think people see the strategic value of us now more than they ever did before.
Kenneth Goldman, Analyst
Okay, that's helpful. I wanted to also ask, I know there is a lot of moving pieces and certainly, no one can predict the future especially right now. But you did talk about a little bit about what you're expecting between shipments and consumption for May and June. And maybe a little bit more of a balance this quarter, what numbers roughly should we be looking for as May and June go forward in terms of Nielsen Data? I just want to make sure there are no surprises on the downside, because you are talking about a very strong total shipment number for the second quarter. But maybe Nielsen might lag that at the beginning, I just wanted to get any kind of sense you can on the cadence of how that progresses from a takeaway perspective?
William Cyr, CEO
Yes. And Ken, if you look in the investor deck that we published today, we gave the Nielsen data on Slide 17, literally all the way through data that came out as of this morning. So it's data through April 25, to give you a sense for what this looks like and what you can see is there is a big surge in the March period that everybody knows about, there is a big trough that came on the back end, but we started to seeing it come back up out of that. We don't think that we're getting back to normal right at the very beginning of May, but we wouldn't be surprised if by the end of the quarter, we're back to the run rate in terms of the growth rate that we had. And if you look at the lines on that slide, what you can see is we're headed back towards where that consumption line, this was the orange line is the consumption line on there. We're headed back in that direction and we have visibility on scanner data for key retailers, that goes one week beyond that. And we can tell you that the trend continues and we feel pretty good about it. But as you think about what will actually report, remember in Q1, we had a little bit of the search, but really most of that fell into Q2. So during that trough, we got a good - we had basically refilled the inventory. And then, and we'll see a little bit of that in the May window. So we think Q2 is going to end up looking like Q1, in terms of total shipments. It's just going to have this funny feeling of filling a trough first and then resuming normal consumption later in the quarter.
Kenneth Goldman, Analyst
Okay. Thanks so much.
William Cyr, CEO
Yes.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.
Jason English, Analyst
Good morning, everyone. I have a couple of quick questions. First, can you explain the $4 million COVID expense? I noticed you excluded it this quarter. Is it accurate to say that the pro forma adjustment does not affect your EBITDA guidance for the year?
Dick Kassar, CFO
Well, what we've excluded is $4 million in COVID expenses; we've only spent a couple of hundred thousand dollars in the first quarter. We expect to spend $2 million in the second and the balance in the third and the fourth quarter. And we are excluding that from our EBITDA - adjusted EBITDA numbers.
Jason English, Analyst
That's right. Got it. Thank you. And you mentioned - you mentioned trade down risk and why you're not concerned about a recession is going to impact adoption of the growth, your business. Can you help point me to some of the things that give you confidence? I mean, I know last recession premium held up, but that was also in the wake of the melamine crisis that obviously capitalized a pretty big up-trading. So, there is a lot of noise in that data set. I'd love to hear what you're looking at - that lends confidence back?
William Cyr, CEO
Scott, you want to take that one?
Scott Morris, COO
Yes. So Jason, if you look at premium pet food really over the last three recessionary periods, we've typically seen growth really through every one of those periods. The growth may have come off a little bit of the top that it was at - but it typically is really grown through each one of those periods. We were small, but we were around in '07 or '08 and that was a pretty tough. We also saw '10 or '11. And the thing that I think we're pretty well positioned around is, we actually have obviously have a very wide range of products. And we think that one of the things that you could see is some people moving off of some of our highest dollar per pound item, to some things that are a little bit more cost-effective now. That obviously has some impact from a dollars a buying rate standpoint, but the margins are actually slightly accretive, which is one of the things that's actually been helpful this quarter, where we actually had a little bit more roll business going on this quarter. So, I think historical trends have been pretty strong. We've participated and experienced some of those on Freshpet. Overall, the business has had tremendous growth, despite what's really what's going on in the marketplace. And we've been able to really grow through all kinds of adversity in the market. I mean, if it's a horrible recession, I think it could have some impact. We're watching the data literally weekly, and I won't typically share this much information, but we're looking across all different customers and we're seeing it go from the spike, to the trough and it goes from single-digit to teams, the '20 to mid-20s at some of the customers that you won't expect to see quite the growth rate coming back as quickly as it has and it looks like it's responding well already. I know we're not there yet, but it looks fairly positive so far even.
William Cyr, CEO
Jason, and I would add to that is the - if you think - as you think about our business and we've said this pretty consistently that there is a very strong loyalty to the Freshpet, once you've adopted the Freshpet, how that you stick with it. So we think we have that loyalty for the existing franchise is not a price-sensitive base, and nobody's buying it on deal. It's the attracting new users is the thing that becomes a little bit more difficult. If they are into a recessionary environment, but we still think it's very doable, even if there is a little bit of an economic headwind.
Jason English, Analyst
Understood, got it. Thank you, guys. I'll pass it on.
Dick Kassar, CFO
Thanks, Jason.
William Cyr, CEO
Thanks.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Moskow with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your question.
Robert Moskow, Analyst
Hi, thank you. I guess a couple of questions about what's going on at the plants guys - you have an 11% absentee rate. Are people feeling safe to come to work? Have you tried calling up or taking surveys to see how their attitude is, because I think that's one of the biggest challenges at the meat packing plants, that people just don't feel safe? And then secondly that you're excluding the COVID cost this year, but is there a chance that some of those costs spillover into next year as well? And maybe even become just a higher cost of doing business, if it means we have to have higher safety methods in place for longer? Thanks.
William Cyr, CEO
Yes. Rob, those are really good questions. And as we said at the beginning, the safety of our employees is our number one priority. In terms of the first question, why is there an 11% absenteeism rate. When we talk to - when we did follow up with the employees who are chronically missing, and asked them why is there. In the vast majority of the cases, it’s because somebody at home, who has some underlying health issue, where they want to do everything we can to avoid creating risk for that person. And so they view potentially going to work as possibly a risk. We've also been communicating very aggressively with all of our employees, every single week, what it is that we're seeing, we're very transparent with the information, just as we are with investors, we're transparent with our employees about what we're seeing and what the results have been. And so far, we have no evidence of any transmission of the virus within our employee base. That doesn't mean they don't have it, because it exists in the community, we exist in the northeastern part of the United States. But we have no evidence that it is transmitting and our employees seem to reinforce that. But they are - as you might imagine, part of a community where they're seeing this fairly broadly. But the absentee rate that we're seeing is one that we can manage and we've been able to keep up with demand. We had record production in February; we got into March or - March production was pretty close to where February was. And in April, we had good production. If you just look at the chart that we put in the investor deck today, on Slide 10, where we gave people what our shipments are for both March and April. And remember, we came in constrained on capacity and constrained on trade inventory; we shipped more than 30% ahead of a year ago, on both of those months. So even with the absentee rate, we're able to ship it out at a very, very high level.
Robert Moskow, Analyst
Got it, and makes sense. And the second element I thought it was pretty important is, is getting into the stores to replenish the refrigerators that are running low, since the store inventory is running low. What extra steps have you needed to take to make sure that - I don't know if your drivers or your brokers maybe it's a combination right now can actually get into those stores to execute what they need to do?
William Cyr, CEO
Scott, do you want to take that?
Scott Morris, COO
Yes. So what we do is every - every store is on a slightly different cadence or every change on a slightly different cadence. But every couple of weeks we get a pretty full set of pictures from all the different stores, we review the pictures. The lesson, we want to do with someone - send someone into the store, if we don't have inventory. So we're trying to make sure that there is inventory in the warehouse, and inventory in the back room and then we're actually going ahead and sending people into the store to help replenish. What we're finding is that the store personnel are just so behind, and then there are times where they're not taking as good a care of the fridges as we'd like. So those are really the steps we're working with a third-party, that we always work with, it's one of our broker partners. And a couple of other folks that we work with, that can help us get to retail and cover. It's a pretty broad number of stores where we need to put the pressure and assist in stocking some of those fridges.
Robert Moskow, Analyst
Okay. There's talk in our household of getting a second dog, so we'll keep you updated, market research of one person. Thank you.
Scott Morris, COO
I think we see a significant trend. I believe there is at least one other analyst who might have recently gotten a puppy.
Robert Moskow, Analyst
Yes, it's for real. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Baird. Please proceed with your question.
Peter Benedict, Analyst
Hey guys. First one, as you mentioned the Australian competitors, I think some of those placements in pet specialty.
William Cyr, CEO
I couldn't hear that.
Dick Kassar, CFO
Yes, I didn't know if it was my phone or Peters?
William Cyr, CEO
No, Peter, we couldn't hear your question. You kind of broke up.
Peter Benedict, Analyst
Better now?
William Cyr, CEO
Try again.
Scott Morris, COO
I mean, I think it was around the competitor from Australia that...
William Cyr, CEO
I think he said - I think heard him say, are we buying the fridges?
Scott Morris, COO
We actually are buying those fridges at amortized rate, so that we will actually end up being the owners of those fridges.
William Cyr, CEO
Peter, you still there?
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brian Holland with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your question.
Brian Holland, Analyst
So, I wanted to ask about the $4 million in incremental investment, specifically the advertising. So, the first question would be - how much of that $4 million, is tied to advertising? And then how do you get comfortable with - obviously, we've moved back to expected starting data Kitchens 2.0, you have a surge in pet adoptions. So you've pulled the addressable market forward. And I think it makes a ton of sense to be advertising towards that. But I've been wondering as I've watched the news about this trend to pet adoptions, whether it's actually a positive for you guys or not to pull forward the addressable market while you're still a bit capacity constrained? So can you walk through the comfort with increasing the advertising spend, which is obviously the primary catalyst for incremental revenue, your ability to support that with 2.0 coming on and maybe kind of a shifting timeline of getting that on board?
William Cyr, CEO
Yes, Brian, let me talk about the capacity part, and Scott will talk to you about the advertising, how, what the cadence of the advertising is going to be. But if you go back to that Slide 10 again, recognize that in March and April, we were able to ship more in the 30% ahead of the year ago. I think the number we're showing there is 33% in April and 34% in March. The problem was that you came in a surge in March and we started the year with low trade inventory, because we are tightly constrained. But remember we brought on an incremental rolls line of 24/7 back in January. We brought on capacity at Kitchen South in the middle of February. We've got that running really well. We're bringing on a second shift to Kitchen South that will be up and running by June 1. So we're very comfortable that we will have ample capacity to meet our needs.
Scott Morris, COO
So, a very wise gentleman reminded me about the Alamo recently. Make sure to figure bullets or when you need them. And the conversation was, what we're trying to do is we're looking at trade inventory - fridges trade inventory, our inventory in our - and our ability to produce and what we've been producing and the incremental capacity that's coming - that has come online. And we are trying to coordinate all of that, where when the advertising will start-up, just literally a week or two before, I think we're kind of getting towards more optimal in-stock levels. But keep in mind, that means that, we will still have 80% and 90% of the fridge full. What we don't want to do - and it takes advertising, a couple of weeks to continue to really build up. So we're trying to start at appropriate time it's - we're actually kind of, I would say layering into it at this point, and we're getting a rolling start. There is a balance there, media is not only effective right now, but it's also very cost-effective. So we're getting a great response to the media. But it's also very cost-effective in order to run it. So, we really want to take advantage of that as much as possible, but we also don't want to drive people to fridges that are empty. So we are coordinating all those activities, I will tell you, it's not going to be perfect in every case, but we're doing everything we can. And in addition, we're trying to put a couple of those e-commerce programs which Billy mentioned, and we have some - it's mentioned in the slide. We're putting some additional e-commerce programs in place, where if people are going to retail and they're frustrated that we're trying to help them out and make sure that they can find the product.
Brian Holland, Analyst
Okay, thanks. And then just the last one for me. I guess with respect to these - the spike in pet adoption; what do you know at this point about the composition of these new pet parents or maybe to the extent that they're bringing second pets into the home? But I mean this is - is this a base that's right in your wheelhouse, maybe younger consumers, smaller dogs more likely to spend at premiumized level? I understand that a lot of this may be just too soon to know. But just curious if you have any insight or what level of engagement you might have had from new customers, even those who may not have adopted yet either through the website or any other forms?
William Cyr, CEO
It is a pretty broad group that seems to be adopting. I think from what we can tell so far, it looks like the group where there was a little bit more of an over-indexed, seems to be professional people for the most part. It's a unique time where their home, or both of them, whether it's their home or them in their spouse’s home and it's a unique time for them to be able to adopt a pet, added to their family and be able to have it where they can train the dog. Everyone is home, the kids are home, the parents are home et cetera. So it's kind of a unique opportunity and I think a lot of people are taking advantage of it. I think there is going to be a lot of people that that should be will be really perfect for. The other thing we're seeing, a lot of it is not the first pet, it's actually a lot of people adding a second. And for those people, they're highly involved pet owners, typically we love to see especially smaller dogs, multiple households, is really kind of perfect right in the sweet spot of our target. So, now we got to go tell them about Freshpet and bring them into the brand. It was mentioned too, but the advertising spot that we developed, which was a great job by the marketing team and our agency called home is terrific. There's actually another spot that's going to be called delivered. And you can imagine what that's about, being launched in the very near future too. So we're really trying to be very quick and nimble to respond to what's going on in the environment and make sure that we're not really just coming out of this; we are basically launching out of what's going on with COVID and positioning ourselves as best as we can into the future.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the call back over to management for any closing remarks.
William Cyr, CEO
Yes, just - thank you all for your interest. Obviously, these are unusual times. So I'll leave you with one thought, dogs are not our whole life, but they make our lives whole. And that's from Roger Caras, the pet advocate, photographer, and writer. So feed them Freshpet, and their lives will be whole too. Thank you for your time.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.