Earnings Call
GoodRx Holdings, Inc. (GDRX)
Earnings Call Transcript - GDRX Q2 2022
Operator, Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the GoodRx Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today's call, Whitney Notaro, Vice President of Investor Relations. Ms. Notaro, you may begin.
Whitney Notaro, Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to GoodRx's earnings conference call for the second quarter of 2022. Joining me today are Doug Hirsch and Trevor Bezdek, our Co-Founders and Co-Chief Executive Officers, and Karsten Voermann, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that this call will contain forward-looking statements. All statements made on this call that do not relate to matters of historical fact should be considered forward-looking statements, including statements regarding management's plans, strategies, goals and objectives, our market opportunity, our anticipated financial performance, the impact of the grocer issue on our business and the expected impact of COVID-19 on our business. These statements are neither promises nor guarantees, but involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other important factors. These factors may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Factors discussed in the Risk Factors section of our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2021, as updated by our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2022, and our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated by the forward-looking statements made on this call. Any such forward-looking statements represent management's estimates as of the date of this call, and we disclaim any obligation to update these statements, even if subsequent events cause our views to change. In addition, we may also reference certain non-GAAP metrics, which are reconciled to the nearest GAAP metric in the company's shareholder letter, which can be found on the overview page of our Investor Relations website at investors.goodrx.com. I'd also like to remind everyone that a replay of this call will become available there shortly as well. With that, I'll turn it over to Doug.
Doug Hirsch, Co-CEO
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. Today, we would like to share our perspective on our recent performance and actions we're taking to strengthen the business as we navigate the headwinds we're facing. We are disappointed with our performance this year, and I suspect you feel the same way. We anticipated both higher growth and stronger margins and that we would be helping more Americans get the healthcare they need at a price they can afford. On our fourth quarter earnings call, we reset expectations because our historical cohorts from the COVID period contributed less than we expected. Then our prescription transactions offering was impacted by the grocer issue we discussed on our first quarter earnings call. We did not expect to be in this position. I can say that Trevor and I, as both founders and significant GoodRx shareholders, have no higher priority than getting GoodRx back on track. Over the past several months, we have significantly strengthened our leadership team and embarked on a top-to-bottom review of our business, our products and our relationships with key partners to ensure that we are prepared for the future. We will also be doubling down in our engagement efforts with consumers, medical professionals, and other constituents that make up our business. We have incredibly devoted users and close relationships with America's healthcare professionals. As we previously shared, our NPS with both consumers and providers is an outstanding 90. We are the best-known brand in our space with significant scale. We consistently have great cash conversion and high cash flow from operations. And we've proven our team's ability to enter adjacent markets, as exemplified by the trajectory of our Pharma Manufacturer Solutions offering. We want you to know that we, as an executive team, are fully focused on returning to the level of performance you've seen from us in the past. Finally, I want to highlight that the grocery issue we discussed on our first quarter earnings call was very recently addressed. As communication is rolled out to the grocery chains pharmacists, we expect GoodRx discounts to be consistently welcomed at the point of sale. While we recognize that our year-to-date performance has been below expectations, we're aggressively working to reverse that reality and evaluating every aspect of our business. We're taking actions to better prioritize spending and investments with a focus on enhancing both growth and margin, and we're confident in our ability to execute. I'll now turn the call over to Trevor to speak about our results and plans in more detail.
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Thank you, Doug. As Doug said, we're disappointed by our year-to-date performance, and we're committed to driving towards higher growth and margin in the future. The second quarter was particularly disappointing due to the impact of the grocery issue we discussed, which was in line with the expected $30 million revenue hit we estimated on our first-quarter earnings call. Despite that headwind, our revenue and to a greater extent, our adjusted EBITDA came in ahead of our expectations for the quarter, as prescription transactions revenue, subscriptions revenue and Pharma Manufacturer Solutions revenue each performed slightly better than we anticipated. Prescription transaction revenue decreased 7% year-over-year due to the grocery issue. We exited the second quarter seeing approximately 20% of the weekly volume we processed through this grocer before the issue beginning of March and has seen subsequent continued declines post quarter end. We were effective at redirecting new users during the effective period of the retailers. New user numbers in the second quarter were close to prior period levels. As Doug mentioned, the grocery issue has been addressed. We have worked collaboratively with the grocer over the last few months to address the situation in a way that allows GoodRx and the grocer to jointly serve consumers in a way that helps consumers and also satisfy the grocer's needs. We are pleased that our consumers can once again enjoy the prescription access and affordability benefits of GoodRx at the grocer who we value as a partner. Karsten will provide more detail on the second quarter revenue impact and the expected third-quarter revenue impact shortly. During the second quarter, we also took actions to strengthen our prescription transactions offering and minimize the potential for disruptions going forward. In addition to ongoing conversations with PBMs we work with as well as the grocer discussed, we also proactively engaged with many retail pharmacies to ensure broader marketplace stability. We've been meeting with the pharmacies that represent the vast majority of our volume. Each pharmacy has unique challenges in the current macro environment, and we are working proactively to collaborate on solutions to drive our mutual success and profitability. We strongly believe that our pharmacy network remains stable. And during the period, the grocery issue ratio occurred volume and other retailers grew substantially. In fact, with the exception of this particular grocer, volume across other pharmacies increased more than 3% quarter-over-quarter. As mentioned, our new user counts in the second quarter, driven by strong user growth in many of the grocers' competitors as consumers chose to fill out other pharmacies with attractive GoodRx prices, largely offset the needs or decreased the grocer. While we were able to effectively move new users, returning users were down significantly due to the grocery issue and drove the decrease in prescription transaction revenue. As mentioned on our last earnings call, returning users often go directly to the grocer without checking prices on GoodRx given how reliable our savings have historically been. This behavior resulted in a decrease in overall volume of transactions from returning users and, of course, returning user counts. In addition to the actions we've taken to ensure marketplace network stability, we are also prioritizing new product enhancements. When we founded GoodRx, we recognized that building trust with consumers was key. So we created a user experience that was as frictionless and simple to use as possible. Consumers could access the GoodRx platform and find significant savings without creating an account. Today, we are focused on developing new services and incentives for users to register with GoodRx, so that we can increase our touchpoints and play a more active role in all aspects of their care. This will add friction to the acquisition and price search funnel and will most likely negatively impact conversion metrics and revenue, which Karsten will speak to in guidance. However, we believe the benefits of deeper relationships with our consumers will allow us to help them better navigate their healthcare journey with even more compelling GoodRx value propositions and user experience. We also believe that allowing users to provide us more information will increase the lifetime value of each user in prescription transactions and other areas of the business over time as we leverage it to create new tools and products for our users in quarters and years to come. The diversification of our revenue continued in the second quarter with our other offerings now making up 30% of revenue compared to approximately 5% just three years ago, primarily driven by their rapid growth. Subscription revenue grew 82% year-over-year as the response from our Gold subscriber base to the increase in monthly subscription fees was largely in line with our expectations. The momentum in our pharma manufacturer solutions offering continued during the quarter with revenue more than doubling year-over-year as we continued to increase penetration and deliver high ROIs to the manufacturers and brands we work with. Our distinct ability to reach both consumers and providers continues to be recognized by manufacturers as evidenced by the strong growth. We expect continued year-over-year growth as more pharma ad spend shifts to digital and pharma manufacturers continue to recognize attractive returns on their marketing spend as they leverage our broad provider and consumer audiences. Our second quarter acquisition of vitaCare, a pharmacy services platform that gives us valuable capabilities to facilitate the brand location prescription process from start to finish, adds yet another innovative product and enhances our pharma focus capabilities. We believe vitaCare increases our strength and differentiation, particularly as it relates to the access element of the medication awareness, access and adherence spectrum, which is a key focus for manufacturers to drive medication volume and revenue. We recently announced a strategic initiative with Mayne Pharma to deliver an enhanced direct-to-consumer campaign to build awareness of NEXTSTELLIS, their novel contraceptive and expand access to birth control. By combining our extensive reach across consumers and healthcare providers with Mayne Pharma's novel contraceptive, this campaign aims to bring broader awareness and access to this branded contraceptive and other available birth control options. We'll also build awareness among healthcare providers. This exciting relationship with Mayne Pharma demonstrates the tremendous value we can deliver as a scaled platform where both patients and healthcare providers engage with us at the same stage of the patient's healthcare journey. Even with the rapid growth of our pharma manufacturer solutions offering, our revenue has penetrated less than 1% of the $30 billion pharma manufacturer solutions total addressable market. We expect growth to be driven by more relationships with more pharma manufacturers, more penetration of their brands, and increasing the number of solutions each brand deploys us. We are also adding more solutions to our consumer and provider offerings and continuing to sell into the healthcare provider opportunity with GoodRx providers. GoodRx providers create a more customized experience for providers and equip them with the tools they need to support their patients throughout their healthcare journey. With over 825,000 prescribers using GoodRx since June of 2021 and more than 300,000 healthcare providers who have opted into the GoodRx provider mode so far, we believe there is an enormous opportunity for us to meet providers' unique needs with innovative solutions while helping them achieve better patient outcomes. With our incredible offering rate to our GoodRx providers' platform, we believe we are on track to becoming one of the largest provider platforms in the US. With the combination of GoodRx providers and our consumer offerings, we have the opportunity to deliver a truly unparalleled digital healthcare platform that enables us, our partners, physicians and manufacturers to educate and serve providers and patients in a coordinated fashion. Before I close, I'd also like to talk about margins and cost structure. We've historically combined high growth and high profitability at GoodRx. We are committed to increasing both growth rate and margins from today's levels. We're taking a hard look at all of our costs and expenses and reprioritizing where and how much we spend across the business and all of our offerings. This is one of the principal focuses of Raj Beri, our recently hired COO, and we have begun to take actions to improve our cost structure and will continue to do so into the fourth quarter. Despite the grocery issue, we delivered revenue growth, margins and strong operating cash flow in the second quarter. This was fueled by the continued commitment of our team and a collective dedication to our mission. With the current macroeconomic environment and the pressure it's putting on consumers to make deliberate choices about how to prioritize their spending, we recognize that helping Americans get the healthcare they need at a price they can afford has never been more relevant. The opportunity for GoodRx is clear and we intend to capture it. With that, I'll turn it over to Karsten, to discuss our financial results and guidance.
Karsten Voermann, CFO
Thank you, Trevor. Revenue for the quarter grew 9% year-over-year to $191.8 million, exceeding the guidance we provided in May. Prescription transactions revenue decreased 7% year-over-year to $134.4 million due to the grocer issue we disclosed in the prior quarter and which Trevor discussed earlier. The estimated impact of the issue on our prescription transactions revenue in the second quarter was largely in line with the $30 million we estimated on our last earnings call and drove a decrease in both MACs, which decreased 3% year-over-year to $5.8 million and PTR per MAC, which decreased 4% as consumers at the grocer have historically had more transactions per month with a slightly higher fee per transaction. I'll discuss the expected future impact of the grocer issue in more detail in the guidance section, but in the meantime, I want to point out that we estimate the issue had a mid-teens percentage impact on our revenue growth. Market-wise, when you look at trends in prescriptions in the US, the second quarter is back to pre-COVID levels on most prescription metrics like total generic volume, new prescriptions and new therapy starts, which is positive development we anticipated and baked into our guidance. Turning to subscriptions, subscriptions revenue continued to grow rapidly, up 82% year-over-year to $26 million. We ended the quarter with over 1.1 million subscription plans and 1.6 million members benefiting from our subscription offerings since our family subscriptions generally serve multiple consumers. The increase in subscription revenue was driven primarily by the one-time increase in monthly subscription fees we charge for the GoodRx Gold program and also an 8% year-over-year increase in subscription plans. As a reminder, in the first quarter of 2022, we increased fees for new Gold subscribers for the first time in our history from $5.99 and $9.99 per individual and family to $9.99 and $19.99, respectively. And in the second quarter, we increased fees to our existing Gold subscriber base as well, which catalyzed the largely price-driven revenue increase. Subscription plans were down modestly quarter-over-quarter as expected and as we discussed during our fourth quarter earnings call, when we set expectations for a one-time higher-than-usual churn level in the second quarter due to the one-time increase in monthly fees. Overall, we are pleased with the response of our subscriber base to the increase in Gold subscription fees, which was in line with our expectations. Pharma Manufacturer Solutions revenue grew 102% year-over-year to $26.6 million as we continue to work with more pharma manufacturers and offer more solutions and deliver superior ROI to those with which we work. This is the first quarter that includes revenue related to vitaCare, which contributed approximately $1 million. Other revenue grew 13% year-over-year to $4.9 million, driven by the growth in GoodRx Care. Moving down the P&L. Cost of revenue was $18 million or 9.4% of revenue compared to $11.1 million and 6.3% of revenue in 2Q 2021. The increase in cost of revenue as a percentage of revenue was driven by the grocer issue described earlier, which materially impacted our prescription transactions revenue as well as the acquisition of vitaCare, which has a higher cost of revenue due to the operational nature of its business. Product development and technology expenses were $35.4 million compared to $29.6 million in the comparable period last year. This increase was primarily due to continued investments in the team and product. Excluding stock-based compensation expense and other items, adjusted product development and technology expense was 13% of revenue compared to 11.3% of revenue in 2Q 2021. The grocer issue described earlier contributed to the increase in adjusted product development and technology expense as a percentage of revenue. Adjusted product development and technology expenses were modestly lower quarter-over-quarter, due primarily to a higher capitalization rate of certain qualified costs related to the development of internal use software. Sales and marketing expenses were $94.3 million compared to $88.4 million in 2Q 2021 as we continue to invest in our incredible team with the goal of increasing our consumer and pharma manufacturer base and building the GoodRx brand. This was partially offset by lower advertising and promotional spend, which decreased $4.8 million year-over-year. Excluding stock-based compensation expense and other items, adjusted sales and marketing expense was largely flat quarter-over-quarter in absolute dollars and decreased year-over-year as a percentage of revenue making up 45.3% of our revenue in 2Q 2022 compared to 46.7% last year. General and administrative expenses were $34.7 million compared to $39.6 million in 2Q 2021. The decrease was due primarily to stock-based compensation expense relating to the non-recurring co-CEO award made in connection with our IPO, which was approximately $12.1 million higher in the comparable period last year. Excluding these and other adjustments, adjusted G&A as a percentage of revenue was 7.7% compared to 5% in 2Q 2021. The grocer issue described earlier contributed to the increase in adjusted general and administrative expense as a percentage of revenue. Net loss was $1.4 million compared to net income of $31.1 million in the second quarter of last year. Net loss was impacted by stock-based compensation expense of $31.6 million, $11.9 million of which related to the nonrecurring co-CEO awards made at the time of the IPO. The year-over-year decrease was primarily due to the grocer issue we discussed as well as a decrease in our tax benefit, which was $37.3 million last year compared to only $8.7 million this year. This was partially offset by a decrease in stock-based compensation expense. In addition to these drivers, the acquisition of vitaCare also had a negative impact on our second-quarter 2022 net loss, but to a lesser extent. Moving on, adjusted net income decreased 22% year-over-year to $27.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 13% year-over-year to $47.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased year-over-year but continued to be a strong 24.6%. The decrease in adjusted net income, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margin are all driven primarily by the grocer issue. While we're able to keep adjusted sales and marketing largely flat quarter-over-quarter in absolute dollars and decrease the proportionate made of revenue on a year-over-year basis, it still forms a larger percent of revenue compared to the first quarter of this year and some other more fixed cost and expenses from the larger percentage of revenue as well due to the decrease in prescription transactions revenue. Even with the grocer's impact on our business, we are still able to generate an adjusted EBITDA margin of almost 25% and continue to generate strong cash flow with net cash from operating activities of $51 million for the quarter. Moving on to guidance. We will not be providing full-year expectations at this time as the full-year impact of the grocer issue continues to be difficult to estimate because there are several variables, including, among others, consumer response to pricing and returning user levels that have to be determined. Given we only have less than a week of empirical data on utilization and a more normalized state with the grocer, we do not yet have enough data to reliably estimate the impact. For the third quarter, we expect total revenue of approximately $185 million. This assumes the loss in prescription transaction revenue related to the issue expands to approximately $35 million to $40 million. The impact is expected to be greater compared to the $30 million impact in 2Q 2022, as the impact was gradual as the quarter developed and was not as severe in April as it was in June, and as our plan for the year assumes sequential growth at this grocer. As Trevor mentioned, we exited the second quarter at 20% of weekly volumes at the grocer in July, and that number is already lower in the mid-teens. We believe the benefit to third-quarter revenue from the grocer issue being addressed will be immaterial. In other words, we do not expect a meaningful volume lift relative to where we exited the second quarter for a few reasons. First, the issue was addressed less than a week ago, and it takes time for changes in communication to reach the pharmacy and store level. Second, it is unclear how many GoodRx consumers that switched to their insurance or another form of savings at the grocer during the second quarter will return to using GoodRx. And if they do return, how quickly that will happen. Finally, pricing has changed and will be higher in many cases. For all these reasons, we believe that the impact or benefit on Q3 and Q4 revenue and possibly for a period of time after that will be minimal. In addition to the impact of the grocer issue, we expect the consumer engagement efforts Trevor discussed earlier to further impact prescription transactions revenue by approximately $5 million in the third quarter and approximately twice that in the fourth quarter due to higher friction in the funnel. As Trevor said, we believe that these efforts will allow us to create tighter relationships with our consumers and deliver more value to them in the future. We also believe it will allow us to generate higher lifetime value from our users, not only in prescription transactions but also our other existing offerings as well as services and products that we will build or buy in the future. The impact expands from the third to fourth quarter since we began this effort in the middle of the third quarter. For these reasons, as well as the modest decrease in PTR per MAC, we're anticipating due to continued volume mix shift, we expect the quarter-over-quarter prescription transactions revenue decrease of approximately $10 million in the third quarter. We expect subscription revenue will be moderately lower by $1 million to $2 million in the third quarter compared to the second quarter due to the late second quarter churn from our existing user base as we rolled out fee increases to the entire subscriber base. This is in line with our expectations from earlier in the year. On the quarter earnings call, we discussed our strategic repositioning of Gold, our subscription program, and the fact that we're planning to focus on a more specific audience that we believe finds more value from Gold members of chronic conditions, multiple recurring prescriptions, and other long-term needs. As part of this repositioning, we undertook a one-time price increase for new Gold subscribers in January to reflect all of the value we've added to the program in 2021 and create a clear differentiation between our offerings. In the second quarter, we rolled out increased prices to our existing subscriber base. When we announced the Gold price increase on our Q4 earnings call, we shared that we expected a one-time churn impact when we raised prices to our existing subscriber base in the second quarter. As we anticipated, we're entering the third quarter with a slightly smaller Gold subscriber base due to churn. As a reminder, the strategic repositioning of this offering focuses on a narrow audience, which may affect future growth rates. We will continue to work hard to ensure that GoodRx consumers find the offering that makes the most sense for them and best suits their needs. We expect pharma manufacturer solutions to grow approximately 60% to 90% year-over-year. We're providing a fairly wide range, both because individual deals can be quite large and delivering on the pre or post-quarter end can swing revenue materially. We've also begun to take advantage of opportunities to earn revenue based on our performance, and the timing when we drive consumer or HCP actions can also create some fluctuation. Finally, we expect other revenue to be largely flat year-over-year. We realize that our total revenue guidance for the third quarter reflects a year-over-year decline in revenue. The primary reason for that is the loss of the majority of revenue from the grocer, which made up almost a quarter of our prescription transactions revenue in the comparable period last year. We currently anticipate the grocer issue and our registration efforts will negatively impact our year-on-year growth rates by more than 20% in the third quarter. Turning to adjusted EBITDA. We expect the third quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 20%. As mentioned, in the second quarter, we were able to keep adjusted sales and marketing largely flat in absolute dollars quarter-over-quarter and decrease the proportion it made of revenue on a year-over-year basis, but it still formed a larger percentage of revenue compared to the first quarter of this year and some of our other more fixed costs and expenses from the larger percentage of revenue due to a decrease in prescription transaction revenue because of the grocer issue. Even with this issue, we are still able to generate an adjusted EBITDA margin of almost 25%. Our 20% adjusted EBITDA margin guidance is lower than our historical margin profile and lower than our second-quarter results, primarily driven by the revenue compression due to the grocer issue. An additional factor is vitaCare, which we indicated at the time of acquisition would have a low single-digit drag on adjusted EBITDA. VitaCare has historically been in a negative adjusted EBITDA position, which we expect to be the case for a few more quarters. We are committed to ensuring our adjusted EBITDA in future quarters increases relative to this quarter. I also want to reemphasize our commitment to increasing growth rates and improving margins. All of us on the leadership team are focused on these goals. And we're reevaluating spending to prioritize growing adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of revenue. That entails scrutinizing all of our costs and expenses with the objective of greater efficiency today and greater adjusted EBITDA flow-through as we grow. We've historically been able to deliver a strong combination of growth and margin, and we want to make sure that continues to be the case in the future. We're confident in our ability to continue to drive our mission to help Americans get the healthcare they need at a price they can afford. And we believe the current macroeconomic environment that increases many people's need to trade off expenses as inflation rises, makes everything we do more and more relevant for all Americans. With that, I'll now turn it over to the operator for Q&A.
Operator, Operator
Our first question comes from Glen Santangelo from Jefferies.
Glen Santangelo, Analyst
I'll ask two quick ones. I know we're supposed to ask one. So I'll be quick. With respect to revenue growth and the outlook for that, do you expect to be at some normalized rate in the fourth quarter so that when you exit Q4, we'll return back to that sort of mid-20% growth target that you had as you enter 2023? And then secondly, on the margin side, margins have come down substantially year-over-year here. And Trevor, to your comments, you say you're focused on it, but I understand the grocer issue is a big part of it, but now it sounds like you're doubling down on consumer engagement. You're talking about a modest decrease in PTR per MAC. You highlighted product development, tech expenses in the press release. Is this the trough in the margin here in the second half of 2022? And how should we think about the outlook for margins as we also move into 2023?
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Thank you very much for the question. I'm going to have Karsten speak to this.
Karsten Voermann, CFO
Hi Glen, it's Karsten here. Glen, I think the two questions related to 4Q and to margins generally over time. I think, first of all, with respect to revenue, 2Q into 3Q into 4Q, we didn't guide 4Q yet, again, as we said in our prepared remarks, mostly because the impact of this issue remains somewhat challenging to predict is probably the best way of putting it, especially since addressing the issue with a particular grocer only happened quite recently. So for that reason, we're not actually guiding 4Q today. However, I think we have indicated that, from the 2Q levels of impact, which are around $30 million represented about a 70% to 75% drop relative to expected revenue from the grocer into 3Q that expanded somewhat because the effects have been there for the entirety of the quarter. So we expect a larger impact. We talked about $35 million to $40 million. And we expect that ā that impact will extend not only in the third quarter, but potentially into the fourth quarter and beyond as well. The reason for that specifically to the fact that, number one, again, resolution was just achieved. So we don't have that much empirical data on the future-looking impact of addressing the issue. Second, it's unclear how many GoodRx users that switched to another form of payment, perhaps using their insurance in lieu of GoodRx, given about 75% of our users have insurance coverage, will return and how quickly the return to use GoodRx. Thirdly, we expect our pricing will flex to some degree and in many cases, be higher at the grocer question as well. So I think our view is that we expect the impact to continue beyond just the third quarter. With respect to the second question you had on margins, we're taking an extremely hard look at our cost structure right now. So from that perspective, we continue to believe that especially in the longer term, our expectations around margin haven't changed. We've talked about the fact that we aspire to and believe we can return to becoming a Rule of 40 company. I think what's changed is that with this one-time step down in revenue that we've experienced hasn't necessarily impacted growth trajectory at all, but it impacts the step down right now with the grocer that may extend the period a little bit, it takes for us to get to those higher combined growth plus margin levels. Sorry for the long answer, but I wanted to make sure I hit both.
Glen Santangelo, Analyst
Okay. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sandy Draper from Guggenheim Partners.
Sandy Draper, Analyst
Thank you very much. I would like to approach that question from a different perspective. I appreciate the follow-up response to Glen's question; it was very informative. To rephrase my question, what factors could influence the $30 million to $40 million impact you anticipate in the third quarter? Is there anything that might increase that figure? I understand why the $30 million in the second quarter is projected to decrease to between $35 million and $40 million, but I'm trying to get a clearer picture of when conditions will improve. I recognize that this is uncertain at the moment, but I'm curious if there are any potential factors that could lead to a further decline, as it seems that currently the only uncertainty is regarding when, or if, things will rebound. Thank you.
Karsten Voermann, CFO
Sure, I can respond to that, Sandy. This is Karsten. I don't believe there's anything that could lead to a larger decline. However, regarding your specific question, we are projecting based on current usage levels, which explains the increase from the second quarter to the third quarter. We mentioned in our prepared remarks that the issue has worsened from the second to the third quarter. Given this situation and the current levels we're observing, I don't expect the impact to be greater than what we've previously discussed. At the same time, we have limited empirical data available right now. This is due to the fact that addressing the issue will likely lead to some changes in consumer pricing and may influence which pharmacies customers choose. We have successfully shifted demand, with consumers moving to where prices are most favorable. As Trevor noted in the prepared comments, we've observed an average volume growth of about 3% in other areas. Therefore, I don't think it would be overly harmful if prices fluctuate slightly above or below expectations. In response to your question, we believe we have a realistic perspective. Additionally, outside of the grocery issue we discussed earlier, we are also making significant efforts to enhance consumer engagement, which could have some effect on the funnel. We estimated that this could result in about $5 million of impact in the third quarter and around double that in the fourth quarter. These two factors are what we realistically see as potential impacts. I hope this information is helpful, Sandy. I apologize for the lengthy response.
Sandy Draper, Analyst
Yes. That's great. Thanks. I'll keep the long question and jump back in the queue.
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stephanie Davis from SVB Securities.
Stephanie Davis, Analyst
Karsten and congrats on the resolution. I was wondering if you could talk to us about the renegotiated prices for the grocer and how that compares to their historical levels as well as your broader pricing base? So will the pricing reset in the way where Krogers will go back to being the majority of volumes if everything shakes out before, or are we going to see more ratable distribution of volumes post resolution because their pricing is more in line with a broader base?
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Thank you for the question. We are pleased that the issue with the grocer has been resolved, and we value this strategically aligned partnership. Regarding pricing specifically, some GoodRx prices at the grocery will now be higher for consumers than they were before. However, these prices are still discounted compared to what users might otherwise pay, and we believe they are sustainable for everyone involved: the consumer, the grocer, and GoodRx. Pharmacies must manage the balance between price and volume sustainably. These conditions are highly dynamic. We understand that consumers are very price-sensitive, but they also appreciate having the option to choose their pharmacy. Therefore, we are happy that they will have access to that choice.
Karsten Voermann, CFO
And Stephanie, this is Karsten again. I'm going to jump in just for a sec as well. I think one more point on pricing is that the grocer prices for most medications will now we expect likely to end up being more similar in lines of prices we show at other retailers. So based on what we saw in the second quarter, when generally seeing pricing at other retailers, new users just shifted there as the marketplace worked and went to their next lowest price. So to your point, that did mean that we saw a volume shift pretty much on average, all the other pharmacies and retailers picked up volume during this period that just did last.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Cherny from BofA.
Michael Cherny, Analyst
Thank you for taking the question. And maybe along those same lines of thought, as we think about your placement competitive environment, I appreciate the commentary you had about being able to shift volumes to other pharmacies. And at the same time, that dynamic that you mentioned at the beginning about with the impact of grocer and how traditional customers just got used to still going in there only to find out that they weren't participating in the network. And so, how does that play off in terms of the dynamic for the individuals that went to these new grocers? Is it just that they changed the method? And how does that factor in, in terms of where you see that rebalancing, rebasing of growth going forward across your various different grocery and other pharmacy channel partners?
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Thank you for your question. As we mentioned, new users have largely shifted to other retailers. The volume of new users is quite similar to what we experienced before this issue. However, existing users tend to go directly to a retailer without always checking GoodRx first because, while drug prices fluctuate, there is a certain level of stability. This is why we are focusing on engagement and driving it, as discussed in our prepared remarks. We want to ensure that existing customers are quickly informed about any price changes or other information, allowing us to promote faster action from these users in the future.
Karsten Voermann, CFO
Yes. I think adding to Trevor's point, I think the reality is that as we continue to move forward through this process, we're going to continue to see the benefit of the now address situation. And with that, we're going to see that we're going to be able to work with each of the individual pharmacies to continue to meet their specific needs in a manner that's going to create a more sustainable environment in the long run.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Craig Hettenbach from Morgan Stanley.
Craig Hettenbach, Analyst
A lot of the focus is on the grocer, but you did comment that more broadly, the difficulty for a number of pharmacies. And so, just wanted to see how you're thinking about that in terms of what that means for the economics of the business and pricing on a more broader basis?
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Yes. I appreciate the question. We have been really proactively engaging with pharmacies that represent the vast majority of the volume. And we strongly believe the pharmacy network is very stable. What we've seen and to your question is that each pharmacy is facing unique challenges. And in particular, relative to these current macro environment changes, that has a different impact and different opportunities for each pharmacy. So we've been working proactively to collaborate on solutions to drive mutual success and profitability and sustainable economics for all the parties in our ecosystem. As an example, many of the pharmacies in our network benefited from increased volume during this period, the grocery issue occurred, and they're working closely with us on additional tactics to grow volumes in the future. But each pharmacy has different needs, and we're trying to make sure we're really effective in addressing those.
Karsten Voermann, CFO
Yeah. Just jumping in on that, this is Karsten again. Looking ahead, I think what we do see the grocery issue having caused a one-time step down in terms of revenues. We also don't believe that it's going to impact our growth rate in future years or it doesn't impact the future market size or opportunity. And that's in part because our value proposition with pharmacy is very strong. We drive foot traffic and help consumers have a positive experience at the pharmacy counter. And our data shows that GoodRx users buy incremental items more than 75% of the time, which is, of course, very attractive. And on top of that, you've seen us do a lot of work with individual pharmacy banners as well, like ads that we've shot together at Walgreens, Rite Aid, have enjoyed our Gold program, deep integrations on the tech side, things like the ability to book CVS MinuteClinic appointments through the GoodRx app, etc. So I think, again, given the volume growth we've seen outside the particular grocer in question, I think we're feeling like the other retailers and pharmacies have a highly symbiotic relationship with us.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Mahaney from Evercore ISI.
Mark Mahaney, Analyst
Thanks. I wanted to ask if you had any commentary on some of Amazon's recent moves and maybe the acquisition pending acquisition of One Medical. And whether that may actually create opportunities for you, partnership or distribution opportunities for you? Thank you very much.
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Thank you for the question. Amazon has been pursuing the health business for years. We have not seen a material impact on our business. We believe the recent acquisition of One Medical signals an intention to move further into the employer services space and their efforts with Amazon Care. And we don't expect this to have any impact on our business.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Eric Sheridan from Goldman Sachs.
Eric Sheridan, Analyst
Hi Team. The first, just a clarifying question, the new agreement with the grocer partner, does that have duration that new agreement that we can better understand? So somewhere down the road, if it has to get renegotiated or be renewed that we're aware of some of the timing dynamics around the agreement. That would be number one. And number two, moving away from the grocer, you talked a lot over the last couple of earnings calls about a return to normal in terms of doctor visits and prescriptions. Where are we in general in terms of the overall backlog of doctor visits and expected prescriptions? And how do you think about either leaning in, if you're seeing that improve or elements of broader customer growth you think that could drive in the platform as we move further away from the pandemic? Thank you.
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Thank you for the question. I'll have Karsten speak to these.
Karsten Voermann, CFO
Hi Eric, with respect to the terms of the agreement, the terms of the agreement are confidential, so I can't really go there on this call. But we're feeling very good about the fact that the situation is addressed, not just for today, but for the future as well. With respect to sort of therapy starts and the like, we're for the first time seeing now, for the first time in certainly a couple of years seeing now that new therapy starts are approaching levels that they are at for almost all therapies categories that they're at pre-COVID. So when I look back at the data, I'm generally seeing that the data is now converging back to sort of the 100 index of where it was previously to the COVID period. So from that perspective, we view that as generally positive. I think what's hard for us though is that when we look at our own data, the grocery issue did create some noise. So that makes it a little tougher for us to see if that's fully manifested in our case, the higher rate of healthcare utilization. We do anticipate that it could continue to turn into a tailwind as trends normalize further.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth from JPMorgan.
Doug Anmuth, Analyst
Thanks. Just back to the grocer issue. I know you talked about pricing for prescriptions going up for consumers there. But just was hoping you could talk a little bit more about what it means for GoodRx take rates with that pharmacy? And then also on an overall basis, I think you mentioned a modest decrease in PTR per MAC going forward? Thanks.
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Karsten?
Karsten Voermann, CFO
Sure. Doug, it's Karsten here. Yes, I think we expect that pricing for most medications at the grocer will now be more similar to those in other retailers. And that has a few implications. I think one is from a concentration perspective, we don't believe the grocer will reach levels they're historically. With respect to our revenue economics, historically, this grocer had higher PTR per MAC, mainly because the pricing was good, and MAC filled more scripts than they did at other retailers. The other expect is that take rate will likely go down formulaically simply because as prices go up, all else held constant, that larger denominator means that the take rate as a functional will fall. So I think we will see those impacts to some degree. I think the other thing that we see potentially happening is that as mix shift continues to evolve going forward, we also have the potential that we'll continue to see going into the third quarter and beyond some flux in PTR per MAC. We could see another low single-digit percentage sort of smaller sequential drop in the third quarter with that evolving mix shift as well.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Charles Rhyee from Cowen.
Charles Rhyee, Analyst
I would like to clarify a bit more on the grocer issue. If I remember correctly, the concern was that the grocer was disputing reimbursements with several of its PBMs regarding their discount card programs. Your algorithms help show the best price to members when they are searching for cheaper options. I'm trying to understand the resolution here, as you seem to be discussing an agreement reached with the grocer. However, isn't the main issue about them resolving matters with all their PBMs? Is that what we're really focusing on? I'm trying to grasp your role in facilitating or negotiating on behalf of the grocer. Can you explain my understanding that your role is somewhat separate from this situation and that the impacts we observed last quarter, and continuing into this quarter, were largely due to the contractual dispute between the grocer and its PBMs? Thank you.
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Thank you for the question. We're very happy. We spoke about the GoodRx being addressed, and it's been addressed very recently. Over the next few days, communications around GoodRx acceptance we provided to the pharmacists, discounted pricing will be up on a platform and most importantly, GoodRx discounts will be consistently accepted at the point of sale. There are many parties involved here, so I'm not going to speak to sort of specifically the agreements between different parties. But we're pleased that consumers will be able to enjoy the prescription access and affordability benefits of GoodRx at this grocer who we value as a partner. We are, though, really disappointed that this disruption occurred. And we are being extremely proactive, as I spoke to a bit before, just to ensure that all needs are being met by all of the marketplace participants that all players of sustainable economics and make sure that the affordable prices that we help make accessible are available as broadly as possible. And so we do want to play that role of trying to be helpful where we can in making a functioning marketplace. GoodRx is the best known brand in our space. We have a large devoted consumer base. We have a large healthcare provider base. We have millions of visitors on our platform monthly. And all of that gives us the opportunity to grow and scale the business. So we're happy to be able to do that collaboratively and proactively with all of the different marketplace participants.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of John Ransom from Raymond James.
John Ransom, Analyst
Hi. Good afternoon. To clarify, if we were to hypothetically regain all our customers from the grocer in the fourth quarter, I understand that this isn't likely, but assuming it could happen, my understanding is that the terms with that grocer have changed in this renegotiation. However, I don't think you mentioned that specifically. If everything returned to normal and we regained all those customers, what would be the gross margin or take rate compared to what it was before all the changes?
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
I'll let Karsten speak to this.
Karsten Voermann, CFO
Hi, John. It's Karsten here. I believe your question is about the potential impact on gross margin resulting from the change in mix, especially since this grocer is no longer over-indexed in our ecosystem and with the situation being addressed. Just to confirm, did I understand your question correctly, perhaps phrased differently? I assume that I did, given that you might not be able to respond at the moment. If I didn't capture your question accurately, I want to note that the impact of both the mix shift and the price changes is something we've touched on previously regarding PCR per MAC and how it influences that metric. The PTR per MAC has slightly decreased due to this grocer having higher transaction volumes and the effect on the take rate from increased pricing, which may be lowering the take rate. Overall, these factors would affect gross margin to some extent. As we mentioned in the prepared remarks, the variations in PTR per MAC compared to other queries aren't significant, so the effect on gross margins would not be substantial either.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of George Hill from Deutsche Bank.
George Hill, Analyst
Thank you for taking the question. I wanted to dive deeper into the EBITDA guidance related to grocers. Should we consider the change in the margin profile you are forecasting for Q3, aside from the minimal impact of vitaCare, as primarily influenced by the volume changes affecting the margin? Essentially, the gross margin or EBITDA margin of the business appears to be significantly lower excluding the grocer under the previous terms. Is there a reason to believe that it would return to historical levels under the new terms with the grocers, or is this margin profile not achievable with the new agreement?
Karsten Voermann, CFO
Hey, George, Karsten here again. So, if I'm understanding the question right, it's sort of like what drives the change. And the change in margin for both 2Q and ultimately for 3Q is effectively driven by the fact that PTR, prescription transactions revenue is just lower. And that drop in PTR associated with the grocer issue in combination with the cost structure that we are focused on now ameliorating, but that we've kept relatively constant until now impacts the margins. So if you were to add back potentially the kind of revenue that the grocer had historically done, you would find that the margins would be relatively consistent, a lot more consistent with what they have been historically. So, I think this issue is solely one of sort of revenue being a hole associated with the grocer and not more complicated than that from, at least the lens that we're looking at it through. And as we look forward, again, I think the pricing at the grocer in question is not really that material. And the reason I say that is that for a period of time, over the last several months, when we weren't promoting discounts at the grocer in question, our new user volume just sort of seamlessly flowed to other retailers, pharmacies, groceries, etc. And as it sort of flowed to these other places, we actually saw volumes grow in those locations. And so I think our view is that as long as the volume comes through, we're sort of near agnostic, and this goes to John Ransom's question too, as to which particular retailer comes through. On the margin, yes, the users who frequented the grocer in question did do more transactions on a monthly basis and the take rates we achieved were a little higher, but that was again at the margin. It wasn't sort of a dramatic thing. And the big thing was that the grocer had a significant amount of volume with us historically, and that volume is now diminished. And going forward, we're not sure to what degree it's going to come back and at what rate it's going to come back. Hopefully, that makes sense.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stan Berenshteyn from Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
Stan Berenshteyn, Analyst
...my questions. Maybe just to go back to, I believe, a comment that Trevor made in the prepared remarks. I think you said that something along the lines of having incentives for users to register with GoodRx. And that may lead to friction or acquisition or conversion of new users? I'm just trying to understand the source of the friction. Is it that, if they don't register, they won't get as people a discount of those who aren't registered? I'm just trying to understand what's going on there.
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Thank you for the question. We are working on giving consumers the chance to share more account-related information at various stages of their user journey. They will do this for reasons like receiving a deeper discount or accessing additional product features and capabilities. This may affect our conversion funnel and the number of users in the short term. However, we believe this is the right approach because it will lead to a more enriched user experience over time. It provides us with more opportunities to support users in their healthcare journeys. By personalizing this experience, we allow them to navigate their healthcare better, which could potentially increase the lifetime value of each user in our prescription transactions. This also helps us promote other areas of our business to inform users and, hopefully, monetize those opportunities as well.
Doug Hirsch, Co-CEO
One great example of this is our recent launch of a feature called My Medicine Cabinet. If you have the GoodRx app, I encourage you to check it out. This feature allows consumers to track every medication they take. It goes beyond just cost; it includes information such as potential side effects, the name of the doctor, refill history, and the pharmacy where they fill their prescriptions. It's a comprehensive offering that extends beyond pricing at the pharmacy counter. With just a bit of information from the consumer, we can provide a range of services that support care management and ultimately help keep consumers healthier and ensure they stay on their medications. This is just the beginning of what we're doing to enhance engagement, and we are very excited about the possibilities ahead. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steven Valiquette from Barclays. Your line is now open.
Steven Valiquette, Analyst
Great, thanks for taking my question. This was touched on a bit, but Iād like to revisit it. Can you unpack the reported second-quarter results a little more? Total company revenue of approximately $191 million to $192 million was essentially in line with the guidance of $190 million, while EBITDA of $47 million came in around $12 million to $13 million higher than the market expectation of $34 million to $35 million, which seems to align with the company's guidance for the quarter. My questions are whether the full $30 million revenue impact from the grocer in the second quarter ultimately affected the bottom line in terms of EBITDA as well, or if there were other factors at play. Additionally, one might argue that the EBITDA upside in the quarter was primarily driven by slightly improved underlying prescription transaction revenue and also better subscription revenue.
Karsten Voermann, CFO
I believe we missed the end of your question, Steve, but I think I caught most of it. I hope you can hear me clearly. First of all, yes, our $192 million in revenue benefited from potentially some additional market volume, which is positive. However, the more critical factors include actions we took during the quarter that allowed us to optimize our operating expenses. This resulted in a more balanced impact between revenue and net income. One of the key points we mentioned is that changes in how we deploy our technology and our product development and engineering teams have increased our capitalization rate, leading to less product and technology expense hitting our profit and instead being applied to the balance sheet. Additionally, from an advertising perspective, we've seen some improvements in sales and marketing efficiency, which we expect to build upon in the upcoming quarters as we continue to refine our cost structure. Overall, we were able to achieve some benefits in EBITDA this quarter that we hadn't anticipated initially.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Yong from Credit Suisse.
Jonathan Yong, Analyst
..taking my question. I guess going back to the grocer, kind of, putting it all together, you're talking about a bit of a mix shift away from the grocer towards the other pharmacies, the pricing at the grocer won't be as attractive. I guess does this kind of change the growth algorithm kind of moving forward, kind of given that. You did have an outsized growth component related to that grocer? And then does that $30 million to $40 million, it almost sounds like it won't necessarily all come back. I guess kind of what's your view on those items?
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
Thank you. We believe this does not alter our growth outlook. Most importantly, we are pleased that our customers are experiencing the affordability benefits of GoodRx widely. We aim to provide the broadest access possible. There has been no decline in demand. Even in the current potentially recessionary environment, Americans have a greater need for affordable healthcare than ever before. Therefore, we expect the growth dynamics to remain consistent, and we are glad that this issue has been addressed. Above all, we are being proactive by collaborating with all our marketplace partners to ensure a sustainable marketplace for everyone, fulfilling our mission for consumers and setting the stage for strong future growth. I'll let Karsten elaborate.
Karsten Voermann, CFO
Yes. No, I think we see sort of a one-time step down associated with the grocer. Obviously, you saw that in 2Q, and you see us describing the impact in 3Q and beyond as well. But the reality is we don't see this as shifting our trajectory, meaning our growth rate. The total addressable market continues to be huge. As Trevor said, demand is high. We've seen shifts in volume even during the 2Q period where we're seeing growth at all the other retailers on average. So from that perspective, I think we remain highly confident that the market that we're serving and the consumers that we're helping as well as their healthcare providers are going to continue to use GoodRx in huge numbers going into the future as well.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. At this time, I'm showing no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Trevor Bezdek for closing remarks.
Trevor Bezdek, Co-CEO
While our year-to-date performance is not what we expected at the start of 2022, we're aggressively working to change that. We've historically been able to deliver a strong combination of growth and margin, and we want to make sure that continues to be the case in the future. In addition to evaluating our business and reprioritizing spend where necessary, we will continue to pursue innovative opportunities that both deliver on our mission and unlock growth and are working collaboratively with stakeholders across the ecosystem to drive mutual success. I look forward to updating you on our progress in the quarters ahead, and thank you for joining us today.
Operator, Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating.