Earnings Call Transcript - GGG Q2 2022

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the second quarter conference call for Graco Inc. If you wish to access the replay for this call, you may do so by visiting the company's website at www.graco.com. Graco has additional information available in a PowerPoint slide presentation which is available as part of the webcast player. At the request of the company, we will open the conference up for questions and answers after the opening remarks from management. During this call, various remarks may be made by management about their expectations, plans, and prospects for the future. These remarks constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated as a result of various risk factors, including those identified in Item 1A of the company's 2021 annual report on Form 10-K and in Item 1A of the company's most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q. These reports are available on the company's website at www.graco.com and the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Forward-looking statements reflect management's current views and speak only as of the time they are made. The company undertakes no obligation to update these statements in light of new information or future events. I will now turn the conference over to Kathy Schoenrock, Executive Vice President, Corporate Controller and Information Systems. Please go ahead.

Kathryn Schoenrock, Executive Vice President, Corporate Controller and Information Systems

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I'm here today with Mark Sheahan and David Lowe. I will provide a brief overview of our quarterly results before turning the call over to Mark for additional discussion. Our conference call slides and our second quarter Form 10-Q are on our website and provide additional information on our quarter. Yesterday, we reported second quarter sales of $549 million, an increase of 8% from the second quarter of last year. Reported net earnings were $117 million for the quarter or $0.68 per diluted share. The effect of currency translation rates was a substantial headwind in the quarter on both sales and earnings, decreasing sales by 4% or $15 million and decreasing net earnings by 8% or $7 million. We expect translation rates to continue to be a challenge for the remainder of the year. At current exchange rates, we expect the full year unfavorable effect of currency translation to decrease sales by 3% and earnings by 7% with the impact in the second half being similar to what was experienced in the second quarter. The gross margin rate was down 300 basis points from the second quarter of last year and down 250 basis points from the first quarter. During the quarter, material costs accelerated from the already elevated levels of the previous year. Our beginning of the year pricing actions were not enough to offset the impacts of these additional costs on the gross margin rate. Given the cost increases we are experiencing, we are implementing interim price increases across all segments and regions. These pricing actions will begin to take effect throughout the third quarter. At current costs and volumes, we expect that our 2022 pricing actions will offset the input cost pressures on a dollar basis. Of course, the cost of many commodities remains volatile and will be closely monitored. Operating expenses decreased $10 million or 7% in the quarter. Sales and volume-based expenses decreased $6 million against the high comparable in the second quarter of last year. Currency translation rates also decreased operating expenses by $3 million. The adjusted tax rate for the quarter was 20% due to the unfavorable effects of foreign earnings tax at higher rates than the U.S. rate. We anticipate this trend will likely continue and expect our estimated annual tax rate will be 19% to 20%. Cash flows from operations are $135 million for the year, a decrease of $85 million from last year, mostly driven by annual incentive payments made in the first quarter and increased inventory purchases to meet demand. For the year-to-date, we have repurchased 1.7 million shares for $120 million, which will more than eliminate dilution in 2022. We also prepaid $75 million of our private placement debt, made capital expenditures of $89 million with $48 million related to facility expansion projects and had dividend payments of $71 million. Finally, our full year estimate for unallocated corporate expense and capital expenditures can be found in the conference call slide deck on Page 10. I'll turn the call over to Mark now for further discussion.

Mark Sheahan, President

Thank you, Kathy, and good morning, everyone. All of my comments this morning will be on an organic constant currency basis. We had a good second quarter with record sales in all reportable segments. Industrial and Process experienced broad-based double-digit sales growth in all regions. In Contractor, North America remained positive, but EMEA and Asia Pacific saw declines in the quarter. Lost sales to Russia and the extended China shutdown contributed to the modest declines. Product availability remained challenging in Contractor due to component shortages, and labor constraints at our suppliers. Our consolidated backlog was $430 million at the end of the quarter, which is $65 million higher than at the end of last year and $190 million higher than the same period a year ago. While we are still experiencing regular supply disruptions, weekly material receipts have increased since the beginning of the year with 9 of our top 10 suppliers either improving their out-the-door performance or remaining consistent. Electronic components, board assemblies, electric motors, gas engines, and certain castings remain bottlenecks. Despite these challenges, factory output was strong, resulting in a $15 million decline in backlog from the end of the first quarter. Since 2018, we have invested $425 million to expand our global manufacturing capacity. This expansion has allowed us to support higher demand with increased output by nearly 30% during the same period. These investments, combined with improving component availability, give us confidence that we will be able to deliver enough products to reach our 2022 revenue outlook. One more thing before commenting on our segments. Since commodity prices and component costs have continued to rise, we will be implementing another round of price increases starting this August. While we recognize the cadence is different than what we've done historically, our actions are not isolated given the current operating environment. We anticipate resuming our normal pricing cadence at the beginning of next year. Now turning to some commentary on our segments. After a very long strong second quarter last year and following several years of record growth, the Contractor segment was up low single digits for the quarter. Ongoing component shortages in this segment have resulted in delayed shipments to customers in all regions. Incoming order rates have slowed in an environment of rising mortgage rates and lower home sales. However, contractors remain busy and forecasts for commercial construction and remodeling activity remain positive. In addition, we still have an elevated backlog of nearly $95 million, which is up 10% since the end of last year and is nearly double the same period a year ago. Profitability improved sequentially in the quarter due to lower expenses and earlier pricing actions. The Industrial segment posted its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. The segment grew in all reportable regions and achieved second quarter records for sales and operating earnings, resulting in strong incremental margins of 62%. Despite the impact of the pandemic-related shutdowns in China, demand remains robust in multiple product categories. Booking rates in Asia Pacific improved toward the end of the quarter when these mobility restrictions were largely lifted. Backlog is up $30 million compared to the end of last year and $60 million compared to the same time a year ago. The Process segment grew sales 27% for the quarter, resulting in records for both revenue and operating earnings. We saw strength in worldwide demand for lubrication equipment, process pumps, environmental, and semiconductor products. Profitability for the quarter was strong despite some negative impacts from cost pressures on key components. Moving on to our outlook. Demand in the Americas remains firm in all segments. Our outlook for EMEA remains cautious due to softening economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainty; pandemic-related shutdowns in China also affected incoming order rates. However, once these restrictions were lifted, we saw orders improve significantly. With our backlog near record levels, plus the effects of our pricing actions, we are confirming our 2022 revenue guidance of high single digits on an organic constant currency basis, with growth expected in every reportable segment. In closing, I want to thank all of our employees for overcoming the many commercial and operational hurdles we have seen in this difficult operating environment. They make major contributions to our markets and customers every day, striving to deliver A-plus customer service. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, we're ready for questions.

Operator, Operator

Today's first question will come from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

Deane Dray, Analyst

Can we start with the decision to implement an intra-year price increase? I expect that internally, you all considered this more seriously than we do from the outside because these are extraordinary circumstances. I know that perhaps some hesitation was due to legacy issues, but it makes perfect sense. What was the deciding factor? You previously mentioned that the potential sales disruption to your channel partners was the reason for holding off. It makes sense, but how did you come to this decision? Also, thank you for confirming that you'll return to the usual cadence in Europe in January as well.

Mark Sheahan, President

Yes, Deane, it's Mark. Our team came together, and there wasn’t much discussion or conflict about it. We prefer to base our decisions on facts, and simply put, we have seen a significant increase in our input costs since the start of the year. We began to notice what we refer to as negative PPV, which is the difference between our planned costs and the actual costs coming in. This started to impact our profit and loss statement, particularly in the latter half of March during the first quarter. As we moved into the beginning of Q2, this became more significant. We evaluated the situation together and found substantial increases in many of the major components we purchase. We understood that by being transparent with our customers and distributors, we had a solid justification to raise prices now rather than wait. There wasn’t much contention; all business segments and regions are participating in the pricing actions we're implementing. Although price increases are never popular, we have not encountered any significant pushback from our customers or distributors regarding what we've done.

Deane Dray, Analyst

Got it. Well, I would suggest distributors don't usually complain that loudly, if at all. All right, but that's really good color. I appreciate it. And then just as a follow-up for David. Can you comment on free cash flow and some of the dynamics there with higher inventory, buffer inventory, and so because we're seeing that everywhere? And did you do buybacks in the quarter?

David Lowe, CFO

I'll start with the buyback question. We conducted most of our buyback activity in the first quarter. However, in the second quarter, we purchased about 170,000 shares, committing approximately $10 million at a price of around $63 per share. The majority of the reduction in shares had already been executed before the second quarter. Additionally, we observed an improvement in operating cash flow in the second quarter compared to the first. A significant investment during this time was the ongoing inventory buildup we are committed to as we navigate our current environment. In many cases, inventory levels remain high because we are waiting for certain components, like the golden screw. As we begin to receive these parts, including chips, screws, bolts, and O-rings, we anticipate that inventory levels will normalize as the year progresses.

Operator, Operator

Our next question will come from the line of Saree Boroditsky with Jefferies.

Saree Boroditsky, Analyst

So although 49% gross margins are still relatively good. It was the lowest level since, I believe, around 2009 for you guys. So with the new August price increase, how are you thinking about gross margins in the second half and into 2023?

Mark Sheahan, President

We faced not only the cost pressures we discussed earlier, but also unfavorable currency translation rates, which negatively impacted our gross margin by about 100 basis points this quarter. This aspect is challenging to manage, and there's little we can do about it. Typically, over a long period, these factors tend to balance out. When considering our pricing strategies, we approached them similarly to last year. We evaluated our Purchase Price Variance and projected what that might look like for the remainder of this year and into the first half of next year. Our pricing adjustments were designed to offset or neutralize the Purchase Price Variance we experienced. The uncertainty lies in whether costs will rise, fall, or remain stable moving forward. If you believe inflation will ease and costs will decrease slightly, that could be advantageous for our gross margin. However, if costs remain stable or increase, it could have a neutral or slightly negative effect on our margin if there is a significant uptick in costs. That's the best response I can provide. Kathy agrees, but if she has any additional insights, she can share them.

Kathryn Schoenrock, Executive Vice President, Corporate Controller and Information Systems

No, I think that sums it up really well.

David Lowe, CFO

I would like to add that we implemented the price increase at the beginning of the year. This incremental pricing has helped offset costs. However, in Q2, as we monitored certain costs and the prices of key components, we decided it was the right time to make another adjustment to ensure we could continue offsetting these incremental costs with prices.

Saree Boroditsky, Analyst

And then just a follow-up on the buyback question. Obviously, you did a little bit of buybacks in the quarter, but you still have a net cash position. Given the stock price reductions year-to-date. How are you thinking about and does it make sense to do anything more sizable with that cash?

David Lowe, CFO

I believe our strategy has always been opportunistic and remains so. We view the current macroeconomic environment as presenting both commercial opportunities and challenges. With our strong capital position, we are ready to act decisively when the time is right.

Mark Sheahan, President

Yes, I think our priority this year was really to eliminate the creep, which we've done. And then as a go forward, we hope to be able to do that again on a regular basis, but David is right. We're opportunistic when it comes to the real strategic large buybacks, and we're keeping our powder dry right now. We'll see what happens.

Saree Boroditsky, Analyst

Is there any talk internally about what the optimal balance sheet should look at?

Mark Sheahan, President

Internally optimal balance sheet. Was that the question?

Saree Boroditsky, Analyst

Yes. What should it look like?

Mark Sheahan, President

Well, we don't have any targets or specific things that we try to run the business based off of. But we have a lot of flexibility. We like that. We're obviously in the early stages of trying to deploy an M&A strategy, which hopefully will absorb some of that and also increase our leverage in the process of doing that. That's our goal. That's the objective. And if we aren't successful there, obviously, we can look at share buybacks. But there's no targets or mandates or anything like that that we're trying to shoot for when it comes to balance sheet management.

David Lowe, CFO

Yes, I understand balance sheet optimization. In my opinion, the true test of a financing strategy is its performance in various real-world scenarios. We definitely want the ability to take advantage of opportunities in the market as they arise. As Mark mentioned, we have an M&A program ready for investment when we identify promising business opportunities. Over the past few years, we have been in the midst of a significant capital expenditure program that has already involved several hundred million dollars in investments, and we are not finished yet. Therefore, when assessing our financial strategies, we believe it would be unwise to disrupt our strategic plans if business conditions change in the short term. We think that would be a mistake.

Operator, Operator

One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Andrew Buscaglia with Berenberg Capital Markets.

Andrew Buscaglia, Analyst

This quarter has been excellent, and everything appears strong regarding margins. I'm curious about your thoughts on price increases. Given the current positive outlook, I'm concerned about potential issues in Europe and broader recession fears. Can you share your internal mindset? It would be helpful if you could outline which segments might be most affected or the dynamics at play in your business that could help us prepare for a worst-case scenario if conditions worsen.

Mark Sheahan, President

Yes. So again, we try to like to operate on facts. And when you look at what's actually happening, I mean, the orders are still coming in. Business is good. We don't want to jump the gun on what may or may not happen in terms of a slowdown. But certainly, if you look at what's going on over in Europe with the geopolitical stuff that's happening over there and just overall forecast for GDP and industrial production being pulled back. And then when you look at what's happening in the U.S. with rates going up and housing starts likely to come in. Sales of existing homes are pulling back a little bit. Those are probably the areas that we're keeping our eye on closest. But in the meantime, we're not stopping anything from what it is we're trying to do to grow the business here. We're not cutting back on expenses. We are managing the P&L pretty tightly, just making sure that we're making smart decisions. But it's more or less business as usual for us. And if things change, we can adjust pretty quickly here. At Graco, we've got a good team, and we can turn on a dime if we need to. So I feel like as we sit here today, as you said, things are in pretty good shape. We have a huge backlog, and hopefully, we're able to put up the kind of numbers that we're targeting here for the year that everyone has got in their models.

Andrew Buscaglia, Analyst

Focusing on the Industrial segment, we see strong growth driven by pent-up demand from years of underinvestment. Europe represents a significant part of that business. What are your thoughts on the situation in Europe regarding the industrial sector, especially if the region falls into a recession?

Mark Sheahan, President

Yes. I think the Industrial segment is the largest part of our European business, and it has been quite profitable for us. If we break it down, we have our traditional Graco legacy businesses, which include sealants, adhesives, and liquid finishing products that are typically sold through distribution channels to integrators. On the other hand, we have our powder equipment business, the Gema brand, which has been part of our portfolio for about a decade and tends to be more project-based. This segment offers better visibility on backlog and orders. In evaluating these two segments, we consider the overall outlook, recognizing that certain areas may perform better or worse than others. This analysis contributes to our forecast of high single-digit growth, taking into account conditions across different regions like Europe, Asia, China, and the Asia Pacific. It’s a mixed environment. Personally, I believe there is still significant project business occurring in Europe. Conversations with our team there reveal a positive outlook, with strong activity in many of our end markets, and we don’t expect that to change in the near term. We'll just have to wait and see how things unfold.

David Lowe, CFO

No, I just was going to say, I think Mark gave a comprehensive answer. The way I just would summarize, especially on the Industrial side, the breadth of demand for the business, for the segment, the segment continues to impress me, both geographically and served markets. I guess the margin capability, incremental margin strength of the business has been very solid, and it seems to have a good foundation, including the realized pricing that we've seen that series of businesses generate. And the quality of the backlog around the world, especially in that space and not to get too granular, is very good and very broad. And the mix of products, the mix of geographies is, I think, very solid.

Operator, Operator

One moment for our next question, that will come from the line of Thomas Johnson with Morgan Stanley.

Thomas Johnson, Analyst

This is actually Thomas on for Connor. Sorry for the mix-up there. Maybe just helpful for us to go back to the Contractor business. Could you just kind of frame up maybe end market demand there and how we should think about, I realize maybe rough buckets here, but demand from remodeling versus new home builds versus commercial construction, if you're able to just kind of help us think through where the risks would be and the magnitude of those potential risks here?

Mark Sheahan, President

Yes. So we really don't break out the different groups in terms of do-it-yourself versus pro paint. But what I will say is that we feel pretty good about where the pro contractor is right now today. Generally speaking, they have a good backlog of business that they're working through. They're busy, and they're working on all kinds of different projects, including commercial projects and residential projects, remodeling projects. So we don't have great visibility into like exactly where our sprayers are used on a daily basis, but a good professional painting contractor really serves a fairly broad base of customers. I would characterize the market right now as pretty healthy for those people. And of course, the pro part of our product line is more profitable than the DIY part of the line. The DIY side is the area where I think that people are probably more concerned about from the consumer standpoint. Is the consumer going to hang in there? Are they going to pull back? What's going on with inflation? You look at like at the home centers, foot traffic is down. You guys probably know that, but that's probably the one area in North America that I would be wanting to keep my eye on. And over in the regions, again, it's more of a professional product mix. There is some home center in Europe, but for the most part, again, similar dynamics. They're busy. They've got backlog. They're working. Labor is another factor that you should think about because labor is tight. And so by using power equipment to do a job versus throwing manual labor to the job, you're more efficient, number one, but you also have to worry about finding labor in a tight market. So I think we're in pretty good shape. We'll see what happens, still bullish on that market long term. We're still way underbuilt in terms of houses here in North America. I think something like 4.5 million or 5 million units. That ultimately will get caught up, and we think we're in a good spot.

Operator, Operator

One moment for our next question, and that will come from the line of Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

Matt Summerville, Analyst

Mark, David, is there any way to quantify the impact the component shortages had on sales this quarter? And do you feel like that impact in Q2 was greater or lesser versus what you would have experienced in Q1? And then I have a follow-up.

Mark Sheahan, President

Yes, I'll start with kind of current state. I think it's better. We were able to knock about $15 million off of the backlog here in the quarter. It feels to me like our throughput from suppliers was better today than it was even 3 months ago. We're definitely not out of the woods yet, but things are in better shape. It's hard to know exactly how much higher the revenue could have been if we had gotten everything in that we wanted on time, but for sure, it would have been higher. If you look at just what's happened here since the end of the year, it's about $65 million of additional backlog, and we were at high levels when we started the year off. So for sure, we were held back. I can't give you a number as to how big that would be. But hopefully, as throughput gets better, factories are up and running. We've made a lot of investments. We've got a lot of new machine tools and new equipment coming in, our throughput will be better, and we hope to really make a dent in that backlog here throughout the rest of the year.

Matt Summerville, Analyst

As a follow-up, is there any way you can clarify the expected price increase? Typically, you would aim for an increase of around 150 to 200 basis points. Considering the price increase earlier this year, which I assume is significantly higher, along with what you're implementing in Q3, could you help us gauge the total impact? Should we be anticipating a high single-digit or low double-digit increase?

Mark Sheahan, President

Yes. The best we can do is give you the outlook. And the outlook is high single-digit organic constant currency for the year. And beyond that, I really can't help you.

Operator, Operator

One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from Walter Liptak with Seaport Global Securities.

Walter Liptak, Analyst

I just wanted to do a couple of follow-ups. So I think what you were saying about contractors that pro painters are still doing great. They've got a lot of work to do. But the home centers you are seeing lower throughput, lower sell-through at the home centers. Is that right?

David Lowe, CFO

Well, I think that the sort of the data that we hear from our own team and some of the other stuff that's published is foot traffic in home centers is reported as being lower. And that, I think, has been evident for some months. On the pro paint side, just to underline a couple of Mark's points, when we talk to our own team as recently as earlier in the week, the professional contractors they check in with, they're very interested not just in labor savings, which we alluded to, but also they're very much even today hiring painters when they can recruit additional painters to help them. And it suggests a level of activity in that arena is going to be pretty good, I think, for the foreseeable future.

Mark Sheahan, President

Yes. Walt, I think my comments were more about monitoring certain areas. The question I was asked was about what I am keeping an eye on and potential weaknesses. I mentioned that we should pay attention to DIY, the low-end market, and consumer home center traffic.

Walter Liptak, Analyst

Okay. And just to refresh us, how much is sales is home centers? I think it's fairly small.

Mark Sheahan, President

Yes, we don't break that out. We do not break that out.

Walter Liptak, Analyst

In a similar vein, how much does Europe contribute to total Graco sales?

Mark Sheahan, President

I mean, David, do you have the number?

Kathryn Schoenrock, Executive Vice President, Corporate Controller and Information Systems

It's around 20%, 25%.

David Lowe, CFO

Of the total.

Kathryn Schoenrock, Executive Vice President, Corporate Controller and Information Systems

Yes, total.

Walter Liptak, Analyst

Okay. Great. And then within contractors, is there much contractor in Europe?

Mark Sheahan, President

Yes, yes, it's a nice sizable business.

David Lowe, CFO

It's the single largest segment in Europe. And it is, I would say, largely a pro paint as well as protective coatings market, which gives it some level of presence in Eastern Europe, including markets like Russia and the Middle East.

Operator, Operator

I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Mark Sheahan for any closing remarks.

Mark Sheahan, President

Okay. Well, thank you for participating in today's call. Before we conclude, I'd like to especially thank our manufacturing and purchasing teams here at Graco for delivering more products this quarter than any other quarter in our company's history. Manufacturing is definitely one of our strongest competencies, and it's been rewarding to me to see the teams rise to the challenge during the last 2 years, where we've had to battle some really ridiculous cost pressures and supply chain constraints. I'd also like to just give a quick shout-out to the people in China for their professionalism and dedication during the lockdown. It was initially supposed to last 5 days; I think it went more than 2 months. Once the restrictions were lifted, the team got back into business, we got orders, and they started to get product out the door, and they really responded very quickly, which I'm very happy about. Finally, I'd like to acknowledge the efforts of our team in Europe. Nobody predicted the force majeure events that have transpired in the last 6 months. The organization continues to impress us with their dedication and commitment to Graco. It's been an extremely challenging time for them and for everyone over there. That concludes today's call. Thanks for listening, and I hope you have a great day.

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for dialing in on conference. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.