Skip to main content

Earnings Call Transcript

General Mills Inc (GIS)

Earnings Call Transcript 2025-08-31 For: 2025-08-31
View Original
Added on May 02, 2026

Earnings Call Transcript - GIS Q1 2026

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and welcome to General Mills' First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Jeff Siemon, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Finance. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Jeff Siemon, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Finance

Thank you, Julienne, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today for this Q&A session on our first quarter fiscal '26 results. I hope everyone had time to review our press release, listen to our prepared remarks and view our presentation materials, which we made available this morning on our Investor Relations website. It's important to note that in this Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. Please refer to this morning's press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements, and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information, which may be discussed on today's call. I'm here with Jeff Harmening, our Chairman and CEO; Kofi Bruce, our CFO; and Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet. Now let me turn it over to Jeff for some opening remarks. Jeff, go ahead.

Jeffrey Harmening, Chairman and CEO

Yes. Thanks, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin the Q&A session, I’d like to share a few thoughts summarizing some of our main messages. It’s clear there’s a lot of change and uncertainty in the world, and the food category is experiencing similar shifts. Our business has also seen significant changes, especially as we review the first quarter results and the well-executed Yoplait divestiture alongside the successful Whitebridge acquisition. Amidst all this change, I want to emphasize that we are focused and clear about our strategy: returning to profitable organic growth, which we believe is the best way to create value for our shareholders. Importantly, we’re increasingly confident that our approach is effective. As a reminder, back in Q3 of last year, we noted our plans for significant investments to address price cliffs and gaps, specifically for Pillsbury and Totino's, and we achieved impressive results, boosting our confidence. This led us to expand our strategy to the cereal category, soup, and fruit snacks, where we also observed pound share growth that either met or exceeded our expectations. Coming into this year, we had heightened confidence in our strategy's effectiveness. However, while addressing price is crucial, especially as consumers look for value, it’s not enough for sustainable long-term growth. Thus, this year we announced substantial investments in innovation, new product introductions, brand campaigns, and renovations across our key categories, supported by industry-leading HMM cost savings and transformational benefits. Now, how is this strategy progressing? The reason we are feeling more confident is that results are aligning with our expectations. We have strengthened our pound share in 8 of our top 10 categories and are maintaining pound share in Pet. We’re also becoming more competitive in food services and have improved our growth and competitiveness internationally. Financially, we anticipate that our profit results in Q1 will be significantly affected by our increased investment profile and the impact of the yogurt divestiture, along with some timing comparisons. We expect these pressures to continue into Q2, but we believe there will be improvements in the second half of the year, particularly in Q4. Overall, we’re encouraged by the early signs of improvement we’re witnessing and have promising initiatives lined up for Q2. Our new product volumes have already increased by 25%, and we have additional strong new products scheduled for the second quarter, enhanced by solid plans in baking and soup as we approach the key fall and winter seasons. We aim to maintain our positive momentum in food service and international markets. With Q1 now behind us and in line with our expectations, we feel increasingly confident and reaffirm our fiscal '26 guidance. Now, let’s open it up for questions.

Jeff Siemon, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Finance

Great. Thanks, Julienne. I think we can go ahead with the first question. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar from Barclays.

Andrew Lazar, Analyst

Jeff, maybe picking up on your comments. The ongoing debate in the food space, right, continues to be whether or not the current sort of challenging volume environment is more structural this time around than it has been in the past, or whether more of it is just a result of the significant pricing the industry was required to take combined with sort of a consumer that's under pressure? And I realize it's super early in your efforts. But as you've gotten some of the key price points in the right place and the other marketing levers can kind of start to work, as you said, you're starting to see some volume share improvement in a bunch of categories more recently. Yet I guess, if we look at NAR, right, volume did not yet improve sequentially from fiscal 4Q. So I guess what I'm wondering is, do you think recent results sort of support the thesis that while there are some external factors for the industry, maybe some of them are a little bit structural. There's still a lot more that in the industry's control and your control in terms of getting sort of volume back to bright?

Jeffrey Harmening, Chairman and CEO

Yes, Andrew, that's a very good question. We believe most of this is in our control. Over the past year, volumes in our category have remained roughly the same, about 50 basis points lower than historical levels, but not significantly behind. There are various factors contributing to this, with the most significant being that consumers are still recovering from a substantial period of inflation that occurred over just a couple of years, and wages have not yet adjusted accordingly. This, we believe, is the main driver. The impact of GLP-1 medications has been minor so far, and while consumers are looking for value during this strained period, the more considerable challenge lies with price and mix rather than volume. Volume remains fairly stable. Looking ahead, maintaining our market share in these categories is crucial for achieving our projected results for the year. We do not need to secure a large increase in market share to meet our guidance and return to flat or slight growth. The situation is largely under our control. Consumer habits evolve, and we have been adept at adapting to these changes. For instance, while GLP-1s pose a slight challenge, we've noticed a shift towards higher protein demand, as evidenced by the strong performance of Cheerios Protein and Progresso Pitmaster. We've also introduced Nature Valley creamy protein, and our granola line is performing well. Even if there are structural challenges, companies focused on the consumer are finding ways to capitalize on opportunities, and that's what we are committed to doing.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Robert Moskow from TD Cowen.

Robert Moskow, Analyst

So a couple of questions. One is, I just want to make sure I understand the path back to volume growth. Are you still expecting that to happen by fourth quarter of this year? And I'm trying to reconcile. So if your category volume is flat, but you're holding or gaining share in 8 out of 10 categories, why is your volume reported down negative one? It would seem just optically that you would be a little bit above category volume growth, not a little bit below? That's my question.

Jeffrey Harmening, Chairman and CEO

Yes. Let me have Dana McNabb address that math question, which is likely an important one.

Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet

All right. Well, Rob, thanks for the question. It is true what you're saying in terms of our volume. But if you look at our top 10 categories, the volume improved by about 1 point in Q1 versus Q4. The total didn't, and that is because flower and desserts were down, and they significantly over-indexed on pounds, not on dollars. What's important, I think, is that where we're putting the price investments, we're encouraged in almost every case that we're getting the volume response we expected. And this is particularly on categories in Q1 like refrigerated dough, on fruit snacks, on salty snacks. And I'd also call out our snack bars. Even though we're comping in a period where our competitor lost distribution, the elasticities we've seen on the investments are at, or ahead, of model. So we, again, are feeling very confident that these investments are working. Now there's a few places where we still have work to do. Our Totino's business, volume was down a little bit in Q1, but we are in the middle of a price pack architecture change right now, where we're moving from a bag to a box. And so we need a little time to sort through that. And then, of course, our Cereal business, we did see an improvement, second consecutive quarter of pound share growth. Really good momentum behind Cheerios protein, our granola business up double digits. Our Cinnamon Toast Crunch business, when you get remarkability right, and have great advertising and great product news, it works. But the pounds in that category were down. Our performance was still down, and we have a little more work to do. But again, what we're encouraged is that in our top 10 categories, pounds have improved. And we believe our plans get better each quarter through the year.

Jeff Siemon, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Finance

Maybe, Rob, I would like to add one more point. Beyond North America Retail, we did experience a shipment timing challenge in Pets, which impacted us by around 4 points. This contributed nearly a full point to the company, a little more than 0.5 points. Therefore, this also affected the total company pounds for the quarter.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Leah Jordan from Goldman Sachs.

Leah Jordan, Analyst

Just if you could provide more detail on your trends in dog food. I guess what can you attribute the slowdown in wilderness to? And how are you thinking about your ability to drive an improvement there? And then I was just also curious, on trends on pet treats, just excluding Whitebridge acquisition there, just given the discretionary nature?

Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet

Yes, thank you for the question. Our BLUE Pet business performed similarly to last year in Q1, maintaining our pound share, although our dollar share slightly declined by about 15 basis points. We are particularly encouraged by our BLUE Life Protection Formula, which is our largest segment and saw growth in both dollars and pounds due to effective value propositions, strong advertising, and excellent in-store execution. Our cat feeding sector is also thriving, with BLUE Tasteful achieving mid-single-digit growth, backed by strong taste claims and successful new product offerings. Additionally, Tiki Cat saw retail sales rise by double digits, benefiting from solid nutrition and a well-executed omnichannel strategy. Overall, these major segments are doing quite well. On the other hand, our Treats business faced challenges but showed some positive volume growth in Q1. There are encouraging aspects of our BLUE business, though we recognize the need for improvement in our Wilderness segment. We plan to enhance our product offerings with new protein options, better advertising, and stronger in-store execution, and we believe our strategies for this year are stronger, although more work remains. Our pet specialty channel also continues to be a challenge. This year, we are introducing Edgard & Cooper, a premium brand from Europe, in an exclusive partnership with PetSmart that has already entered the market in Q1, exceeding expectations in terms of sales. While there are many positive elements in our pet business, we know where we need to improve and are optimistic about our plans moving forward.

Leah Jordan, Analyst

That's very helpful. I wanted to take a step back and ask a broader question. There seems to be an ongoing discussion about the balance between industry scale and complexity. You sound confident in the plan you are presenting today, but there have been several challenges over the past few quarters. How do you view the right balance? As you work on enhancing the visibility of your portfolio, what are the advantages or disadvantages of your current mix?

Jeffrey Harmening, Chairman and CEO

Thank you. I'm going to approach the question from a different angle. The key is to concentrate on the consumers, understanding their needs and wants, and delivering accordingly. This could involve enhanced advertising, product updates, or new offerings. Regardless of the number of categories you’re in, focusing on consumers is essential. Our scale provides certain benefits, enabling us to invest in capabilities such as digital technology, supply chain digitization, and bundling consumer offerings across different store categories, particularly during crucial periods like fall and back-to-school. We certainly see advantages from our scale, especially when we engage with various categories. Our understanding of consumers is likely deeper than those focused on a single category, as we view them from multiple perspectives. However, we've never subscribed to the idea that scale alone is beneficial. It’s important to leverage the scale effectively and ensure that amidst all the complexity, we remain focused on the specific needs of the consumer during each occasion.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from David Palmer from Evercore ISI.

David Palmer, Analyst

Thanks for the great commentary in the prepared remarks. It looks like you continue to expect very strong growth from innovation and contribution to growth from innovation, but it also looks like there's a little bit more of an elongated timetable of the price promotion investments stretching into the second half of fiscal '26, perhaps more than you might have thought a few months ago. Perhaps where are the biggest changes in your reality when it comes to certain categories where the price promotions or investments are sticking around a little longer? And perhaps what are the categories where you're, perhaps, seeing what you would hope to see where you can, perhaps, get a little bit more balanced with price versus volume? And I have a quick follow-up.

Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet

Thank you for the question. I think I'll start first with the price investment. And I think it's important to understand that initially, as Jeff said in his opening remarks, last year when we knew we had to improve value for the consumer, we had to move fast. And so the way we did that was we adjusted depth and frequency of promotion. And we are encouraged by the positive response that we saw. And as we shifted to this fiscal year, our focus has been on adjusting our base shelf price. Trying to get below key cliffs, or to make sure that we have a gap that's manageable to the competition. We need to do this across 2/3 of our portfolio, and we got the majority of that done in Q1, and again, results are ahead of what we expected. And we saw really good results on bars, on fruit snack, on salty snacks. We will complete the remainder of the base price adjustments in Q2, and that's going to make sure that we have the right market leading execution on our baking and on our soup season. And all of this gives us a guidance that we're on the right track. But as you pointed out, when you started the question, price is just one element of remarkability. Once we get the price rate, we're really focused on elevating our work on new products. We're moving from about 3.5% of net sales on new products to 5%. We feel really encouraged about the performance that we're seeing on things like Cheerios Protein, our Mott's bars. We have a lot of really good new products coming through the remainder of the year. And this just gives us confidence that this focus on remarkability and getting the total proposition right is the right thing to do.

David Palmer, Analyst

Great. And then just a follow-up on pet. You mentioned the 5,000 coolers going to a big competitor, as well as over 30,000. How does that work in terms of moving past this initial step? Is it planned for this to keep ramping up, or are you evaluating this first batch of coolers to see how it performs before deciding on future growth? I'll pass it on.

Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet

Well, we are excited to be moving from the planning phase of the fresh launch to the execution phase. And the plant production has started up really well. Our initial products are looking really strong. And as you mentioned, we're in the middle of installing coolers as we speak. So we'll have 1,000 coolers in place by the end of this month. 5,000 coolers by the end of our fiscal Q2. And our plan is to ramp up that distribution into the next calendar year in 2026. So again, so far, everything is going really well. We are encouraged by what we're feeling with cooler distribution. And I should remind you that we have over 50 years experience in the refrigerated channel. When you think about our Pillsbury business and our yogurt business, and so we feel like we have a very strong product and a measured plan for getting coolers that will increase. And again, we're feeling very good about this launch right now.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Smith from Stifel.

Matthew Smith, Analyst

Kofi and Jeff. Kofi, I wanted to talk about the margin performance in the quarter, it was above your expectations. Can you provide a little more detail on the gross margin composition? I believe you called out the international timing benefit was about 3 points of that segment's net sales, or is that like 50 basis points to the overall company? And then how we should think about the phasing of inflation investment through the year from here?

Kofi Bruce, CFO

Sure. Sure. I appreciate the question, Matt. So I think as you rightly pointed out, we did flag that our profit performance in the quarter was a little bit better than expected on operating profit and EPS. Some of that coming through gross margin. The first factor, probably in a slightly heavier measure, was that our inflation phasing was a little bit lighter than we expected in the quarter. Probably closer to 2%, a little bit below the annual run rate of 3% that's sitting in our annual guidance. So that factor first, followed by the trade expense timing benefit in international, which would put it at about $20 million on the top and the bottom line. We expect both of these to kind of unwind largely in Q2. So given that these are timing-related items, as we see them unwind in Q2, I'd expect our operating profit to be down more in Q2 than in Q1. And I expect that, that doesn't change our outlook for the sort of first half aggregate profit looking roughly in line with Q4 of fiscal '25. We do think, kind of just as we look at the Q2 profit decline, it's important to think the supply chain phasing costs on inflation. I'd expect Q2 to be a little bit higher, probably maybe even above the annual run rate as we step into some of the inflationary pressure plus some inflation, or some inventory absorption headwinds. It's important to note we won't have any contributions from yogurt in the quarter as well. This quarter, we had 1 month of sales and profit in our results from the recently divested U.S. yogurt business. We'll start to see normalization of our comp and incentive comp benefits in Q2. And obviously, the international trade expense timing benefits will unwind. So there is a bit of a transitory effect here, both on margin and profit growth as you think about how to digest this.

Matthew Smith, Analyst

And as a follow-up, you called out the trade expense phasing in North America retail was about a point of drag in the first quarter. Is that similar as we get into the second quarter, and then normalize as we get into the second half?

Kofi Bruce, CFO

Yes, you are mostly correct. I anticipate a significant impact in the first quarter and into the second quarter, where we are comparing to last year when we did not incur trade expenses in those periods. This gave us an advantage compared to other quarters last year. There was a minor challenge in the third quarter last year and a much larger challenge in the fourth quarter. We expect these comparisons to become more favorable as we move into the third quarter, with a slight benefit initially and a substantial advantage in the fourth quarter.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler.

Michael Lavery, Analyst

Can you touch on what categories or brands drove the household penetration gains? And maybe how broad that was? And how much you feel like was driven maybe by pricing adjustments versus innovation or other factors?

Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet

Thanks for the question. As you stated, we did see our household penetration grow overall for NAR the first time since fiscal '22, really encouraged by that result. In terms of where we saw penetration improvement, we saw it on bars, on fruit snacks, on salty snacks, on our Cereal business. And we do believe that getting our price value, and again, this is about getting below key clicks on the shelf, making sure we have manageable gaps relative to the competition that was a driver of that penetration improvement. But also it's not a coincidence that where we had a great remarkability approach, where we had good advertising, really good new product innovation, or product quality, price pack architecture, that is where we saw the best results. We called out in the presentation, Cinnamon Toast Crunch is a really good example. Really good product news, great advertising. We have the price right on that business, and we gained pad dollar share and penetration. So again, we still have more work to do, but we believe that we are on the right track with these investments, and we're confident in what we're seeing so far.

Michael Lavery, Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And I just wanted to follow up on some of the comments in the prepared remarks around demand planning. I think it can be maybe an underappreciated challenge. But it sounds like you've got improvement there. Can you maybe elaborate on kind of how that worked and what some of the benefits are? And it's maybe a little surprising the human touch seems unhelpful. Can you just kind of bring that to life a little bit?

Jeffrey Harmening, Chairman and CEO

Let me address that, Michael. I want to start by saying we have an exceptional supply chain, as you know. We proved this during COVID and continue to demonstrate it, including in Q1 this year, whether it's in terms of productivity, service, or low costs. Our supply chain is outstanding, and our marketing team is also strong. Over time, our forecasting has been quite good, but it took us a while to get to an accurate forecast. What we're doing now is using AI and technology to achieve more efficient forecasting. This is important because it allows our marketing team to focus more on demand generation. This is why you're seeing some of the better ideas we're discussing now. Our marketers can dedicate more time to marketing rather than forecasting. Meanwhile, our supply chain team isn’t spending all their time verifying numbers or sitting in meetings about forecasts; they’re concentrating on producing the right products at the right time and place. You can see our efforts to eliminate waste improving. We wanted to highlight that while this may seem small, it's actually significant. Technology is enabling us to achieve better accuracy and much greater efficiency, allowing our talented team to excel at what they do best. That's the key point we wanted to emphasize in this case.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Alexia Howard from Bernstein.

Alexia Howard, Analyst

Can I ask about your efforts on reformulation? You're obviously ahead of the game on the elimination of the artificial dyes, getting rid of those by next summer. But there are other state-level legislations that have been approved, for example, in Texas, I think there's something that's already been ratified by the governor. It's gone through, that's about 44 additive. So it's a broader list. First of all, I guess, as you've gone through your remarkable efforts with some of these brands, are the ingredient list and additives coming up as concerns for some group of consumers? And is that something that you're working through the portfolio to actively drive out, not just the dyes, but maybe other additives that people are concerned about? Or are you going to wait until the regulations and the legislation settles, which could be a year or 2 down the line, and then you'll do it once everything is very, very clear? Just trying to get a sense for how aggressively you're going after that, or whether it's really not something beyond the artificial dyes that you're focused on at the moment?

Jeffrey Harmening, Chairman and CEO

We always strive to meet consumer expectations, which serves as our guiding principle and is the reason behind our approach to creating memorable products. A decade ago, we removed certain certified colors from our offerings in the U.S., which did not resonate well here, although it was successful in Canada. U.S. consumers weren't quite ready for those changes. Fast forward ten years, and we see that consumers are now more receptive. More people are seeking options without certified colors in their food, prompting us to eliminate them. Additionally, our technology has improved significantly since then, allowing us to provide the colors, shapes, and textures that customers desire. Regarding the regulatory environment, we have a long-standing history of over 160 years and extensive experience with global regulations. I am confident in our ability to navigate the current landscape. For instance, 98% of our K-12 offerings and 85% of our retail products no longer contain certified colors, indicating we’re already on a positive path. However, there are many state regulations emerging, which poses a challenge both for us and consumers, as complying with state-specific regulations can lead to added costs and confusion. It's difficult for consumers to understand why a product can be acceptable in one state but not in another. We've always supported a federal approach and are actively collaborating with health authorities and regulatory bodies to establish consistent federal legislation that better serves consumers. We believe that this is the most effective strategy moving forward. We are making significant progress, but the state-by-state approach presents challenges not just for us, but for the entire industry. A unified federal solution would be more beneficial for everyone involved.

Alexia Howard, Analyst

Great. As a quick follow-up, you mentioned that the pace of innovation is stepping up, I think, 25%, I believe that was in North America Retail. Are you able to say what percentage of sales are now coming from new products introduced over the last year, or over the last 3 years? Where are you at in absolute terms on that front?

Jeffrey Harmening, Chairman and CEO

I'm glad you asked. I'm really proud of how our entire team is innovating. Currently, about 5% of our new products come from innovation, up from 3.5% a year ago. However, there's more to it than just the numbers. It’s not that we’re introducing more products; rather, the products we're introducing are stronger and more sustainable ideas that will benefit us this year and in the future. This is evident in North American retail with products like Cheerios Protein and new granola options, as well as Mott's fruit snacks, which showcase solid innovation. In our pet food division, we’re introducing fresh pet food and making investments in that area. Internationally, we experienced double-digit growth in Haagen-Dazs retail in China in the first quarter due to the introduction of stick bars, which are doing well across the market. In foodservice, we've gained market share and maintained momentum with biscuit innovations. I'm pleased to see that innovation is happening across all segments of the company, with a focus on larger, consumer-driven ideas, and we're investing to support these initiatives. That's what excites me.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Megan Clapps from Morgan Stanley.

Megan Christine Alexander, Analyst

I have a quick follow-up and then another question for Kofi, if that's okay. So the first is just following up on some of the earlier line of questioning. Jeff, I think you mentioned you don't need massive share gains to hit the guide. But based on some of the things I think Dana mentioned later, it sounds to me like maybe some category trends are softer than you expected. So could you just clarify how category performance has evolved thus far year-to-date relative to your initial expectations? And whether we need to see improvement in areas like cereal, for instance, to deliver on the guide? And just related as well, since you brought it up, Jeff, can you maybe just expand a little bit on the GLP-1 comment in terms of what you're seeing in the data that you track?

Jeffrey Harmening, Chairman and CEO

I'm going to try to address all your questions. You have many good ones, and if I overlook any, it’s simply because I forgot. Overall, the year has unfolded as we anticipated, and the consumer environment aligns with our expectations. In terms of our progress in Nielsen, our top 10 categories in North American retail are performing about a point better than we expected. However, categories like Flower and Betty Crocker desserts are showing a bit of softness. We expect key baking season starts in September, so we will see if weather changes impact that. Overall, our top 10 categories are performing at or slightly above our anticipations. Consumer sentiment matches what we expected, and growth in our categories is in line with our forecasts. Additionally, our performance within these categories, along with growth in foodservice and international markets, is holding steady. In relation to GLP-1s, there has been some impact on our categories, but it hasn't been significant yet. I expect GLP-1 usage to continue to grow. All sources indicate this trend will persist, which will lead to reduced calorie intake for those using GLP-1s. However, there are opportunities linked to this; people on these medications tend to seek more protein because they may lose muscle mass while reducing calories, and they require more nutrients like fiber. This supports products such as Cheerios Protein, which is high in protein and fiber. Oats, too, are rich in fiber. Despite the macro trend of increasing GLP-1 usage, which we believe will apply pressure on some categories over time, there are plenty of opportunities as well. We're introducing a range of new products that we believe will meet this demand, and we feel positive about that.

Megan Christine Alexander, Analyst

That's very helpful. I have a follow-up for Kofi regarding the pet segment as we enter the second quarter, given the various factors at play. Can you clarify how to approach these factors? It's important to remember that there was some inconsistency in the second quarter last year. The wilderness segment may show some softness, and we also have the fresh pet launch to consider. Additionally, it seems that the shipment challenges in the first quarter were more significant than previously mentioned. With all of this in mind, could you help us understand how to approach the second quarter?

Kofi Bruce, CFO

Sure. I think it's fair to say we expected the shipment timing issue at Q4. It might be modestly larger than we expected. We're not expecting a change to the overall outlook for the year, and I'm not going to get in the business of making quarterly predictions on pet just because I've failed at that multiple times. There is some volatility quarter-to-quarter in that business just inherently in shipment timing. I think broadly, you have the contours right. We will start to see a modest contribution in revenue as we ramp up behind shipments on fresh pet. I think we're expecting some modest improvement as we step into Q2 and then into the back half of the year.

Operator, Operator

Our last question will come from Peter Galbo from Bank of America.

Peter Galbo, Analyst

Kofi, maybe just one clarification. I think you said based on the puts and takes on Q2 operating profit in the first half of this year would be down kind of similar to Q4. I think that lands Q2 operating profit down like 25-ish percent, but I just wanted to make sure that my math on that was correct?

Kofi Bruce, CFO

Yes. I think your math largely works.

Peter Galbo, Analyst

Okay. Super. And Jeff, I have a broader question that ties back to Andrew's first inquiry. Dana discussed the importance of getting below certain price points to drive value. What we haven't explored much is your competition, particularly in the away-from-home channel, which is becoming more aggressive with its pricing and value messaging. Whether it's $5 boxes or $8 boxes, I'm curious if you believe the retail packaged food industry is adapting quickly enough to compete against this segment, which seems to focus heavily on delivering a value price point. Have you noticed any significant shifts in market share as these various offerings have proliferated?

Jeffrey Harmening, Chairman and CEO

Yes. I may not represent the entire packaged food industry, but I believe we should aim to accelerate our pace rather than slow down. When examining away-from-home dining, the traffic has remained stable over time, despite significant efforts from quick-service restaurants. However, it’s important to note that low- and middle-income consumers are experiencing a decline in restaurant traffic, while high-income consumers, earning $200,000 or more annually, are seeing growth. This results in an overall flat traffic trend. A key challenge in this segment is that inflation is rising faster than the cost of food prepared at home, primarily due to labor costs. Even with extensive advertising for value deals, commercial traffic remains stagnant. On the other hand, the noncommercial channel, where General Mills is strong in food service, is experiencing growth, particularly in sectors like K-12 schools, hospitality, and business settings as people return to work. These channels are growing at approximately 2%, and we are gaining market share. Therefore, any growth we observe will predominantly stem from this area, and we are well-positioned to capitalize on this growth, which is reflected in the strong performance of our food service business.

Jeff Siemon, Vice President, Investor Relations and Corporate Finance

Okay, Julienne, I think we'll have to wrap it up there. Thanks, everyone, for the good questions and the good engagement. And the IR team is available all day for follow-ups. We look forward to talking to you next quarter. Thanks.

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.