Earnings Call Transcript
Gogo Inc. (GOGO)
Earnings Call Transcript - GOGO Q4 2021
Operator, Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q4 2021 Gogo Inc. Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session, and instructions will follow at that time. As a reminder this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Will Davis, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Will Davis, Vice President of Investor Relations
Thank you, Jerome, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Gogo's fourth quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Joining me today to talk about our results are Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO; and Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO. Before we get started, I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that during the course of this call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding future events and the future performance of the company. We caution you to consider the risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements on the conference call. These risk factors are described in our earnings release filed this morning and are more fully detailed under the risk factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and 10-Q, and other documents we have filed with the SEC. In addition, please note that the date of this conference call is March 3, 2022. Any forward-looking statements that we make today are based on assumptions as of this date. We undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of more information or future events. During the call, we'll present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. We've included a reconciliation and explanation of adjustments and other considerations of our non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures in our fourth quarter earnings release. This call has been broadcast on the Internet and is available on the Investor Relations Website at ir.gogoair.com. The earnings press release is also available on the website. After management comments, we'll host a Q&A session with the financial community only. It is now my great pleasure to turn the call over to Oakleigh.
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Thank you, Will, and thanks for joining us this morning. As we highlighted in our press release, Gogo's 2021 fourth quarter marked an outstanding end to a transformative year for our company, our first full year as a pure-play business aviation connectivity leader. I'm incredibly proud of all that our team has accomplished and how well positioned we are to create substantial value in the future. Let me start with a few highlights of our key '21 achievements that reflect our relentless focus and determination of our world-class Gogo team. Together, we met an enhanced surge in demand for BA connectivity equipment and data. In the midst of a global supply chain crisis, we scaled AVANCE shipments by 40%, and we successfully introduced business aviation's first unlimited data and streaming plans. We have historic financial inflection points, turning in positive quarterly net income and earnings per share for the first time in Q3, and positive free cash flow for the full year of 2021. We completed a comprehensive refinancing that reduced our annualized interest expense by more than $70 million, giving us the financial strength to invest in improving our products and services, to further de-lever our balance sheet, to secure components in a supply-constrained world, and to return capital to shareholders when appropriate. We entered the exciting 200,000 aircraft strong general aviation market, while establishing serious partnerships offering Gogo IFC on the G2+ Vision Jet. We are gaining traction in the underpenetrated light jet and turboprop markets, as evidenced by our recent announcement with the Pilatus fractional operator, PlaneSense, which is installing our AVANCE L3 on their entire fleet of 46 PC-12s and PC-24s. We executed extremely well in our Gogo 5G project, including most recently completing a test that sets Gogo up for an on-time/on-budget commercial launch in the second half of 2022. We also signed Jet Edge and Duncan Aviation to 5G commitments that will help secure a successful commercial launch. We continue our strategic initiative to drive penetration of our future-proof AVANCE platform, with a 46% increase in install base in 2021, and AVANCE now representing 39% of our ATG install base, up from 30% at the end of 2020. We also achieved a 96% equipment retention rate for the year, which raised our rolling average equipment lifetime on an aircraft from 17 years to 18 years. Each quarter, we exceeded and then raised our 2021 guidance, including exceeding expectations with the performance we announced today. This is evidence of the very strong demand for IFC in the business aviation market and our superior performance in meeting that demand. As a reminder, we provided initial 2021 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges of $300 million to $320 million, and $105 million to $120 million respectively, significantly below the numbers we delivered today. We also introduced long-term financial targets on our year-end 2020 call, and we raised those targets again today, reflecting our bullish outlook on business aviation demand for in-flight connectivity and confidence in our continued ability to meet that demand. We truly come into our own as a new Gogo, and our financial performance this year bears that out. We ended fiscal 2021 with record total revenue, driven by record AVANCE shipments and record service revenue. We ended the year with 6,400 aircraft online, just short of 11% higher than at the end of 2020. We had $3,300 in ARPU for Q4, up almost 8% from Q4 2020. And we grew full-year adjusted EBITDA by 54% year-over-year. Our focus this morning will be on the factors that drove a strong fourth quarter performance and that we believe will continue to drive our growth in the future. I'll share progress on our key strategic initiatives, and I'll introduce our 2022 financial guidance and updated long-term targets before turning it over to Barry. It's evident from our fourth quarter that the demand for BA travel and connectivity remains very strong. We believe the two primary tailwinds driving that demand are the growth in high-net-worth individuals over the last decade and the significant increase in data consumption, driven by the growing usage of video-intense social and work-related applications, partly driven by the COVID pandemic. We also believe those tailwinds are sustainable, setting us up for long-term continued success as we execute on our strategy of enhancing our ATG network and driving market penetration of our AVANCE platform. Growth in the number of high-net-worth individuals over the past decade has driven significant growth in the cohort of people who can afford to fly privately, either on their own jets or through fractional shares or charters. And not only has that cohort grown, but it's also grown younger. A 67% of the respondents in a recent Gogo brand study are now from generations X, Y, and Z, and only 32% from the baby-boomer generation. COVID drove that cohort to try private aviation as an alternative to commercial airlines, and now that they have made that decision, they're not going back. OEM sales of new jets and fleet sales of fractional ownership are up dramatically, largely driven by new project flyers indicating that those new flyers are making long-term financial commitments to private aviation. The second tailwind, the dramatic increase in data consumption is also driven partly by COVID. The pandemic fundamentally changed the way people of all ages think about connectivity as the work-from-anywhere and socialize-from-anywhere cultures became the norm, driving demand for highly interactive data-intense applications like Zoom, FaceTime, or Office 365. These two trends drove a 78% increase in the data consumed by business aircraft in our network in Q4 2021, versus pre-pandemic Q4 2019. The biggest variables fueling that increase were a 38% increase in megabytes consumed per flight and a 29% increase in flights per day. The shift in data consumption drove 2.5 times as many customers to request plan upgrades as requested downgrades in 2021, compared to the roughly even split between upgrades and downgrades in 2019. We expect this growth in data consumption to continue driving ARPU as video-heavy content becomes more pervasive, ultimately as the metaverse and connected aircraft applications enter the cockpit and cabin. Fortunately, Gogo has the capacity to meet this demand. Since offloading our mainline commercial airline fleet several years ago, we have freed up a lot of capacity in our network, and project that we can accommodate roughly triple the number of aircraft we have in our network today. We also expect the number of aircraft on our network to continue to grow, which will drive the number of service plans we sell. We finished Q4 with 6,400 aircraft online, up 10.8% year-over-year, and we expect continued strong growth this year. In Q4, we booked record new equipment orders, and our equipment order backlog already accounts for 90% of the 2022 equipment revenue in our guidance today. In fact, we see that trend continuing for the long term. Today, only 30% of the 24,000 business aircraft in North America have broadband in-flight connectivity. We expect that number to grow to 50% by the end of 2025, and a leading business aviation trade association projects that number to approach nearly 100% by 2035. Our bullishness on the business aviation market is buoyed by what we see in our OEM and dealer distribution channels. OEMs such as Textron, Bombardier, and Gulfstream are reporting the highest order flow in 15 years. Since our AVANCE platform is installed on roughly 60% of the aircraft coming off the line for North American delivery, that is a very positive trend for Gogo. We are even seeing more demand in the dealer channel and are currently predicting a 50% increase in units shipped to dealers this year, projecting that dealers will represent more than 55% of our new shipments in 2022. Taken together, data, flight, and aircraft demand drove outstanding Q4 top-line growth for Gogo with record revenue of $92.3 million, up 19% year-over-year. We had record service revenue of $69.3 million and very strong equipment revenue of $23 million. Our continued growth demonstrates the virtuous cycle of our business model in action. Equipment sales profitability expands our base of subscribers generating recurring, sticky high-margin service revenue, which drives cash flow to invest in improving our networking platform, which in turn attracts new customers driving more equipment shipments, generating even more recurring sticky high-margin service revenue, and so on. Finally, let me touch on our bottom line. Gogo's ability to translate the powerful demand tailwinds that I just described into bottom line value is a testament to the exceptional unit economics of our business. Even excluding our considerable G4 income tax benefit, we delivered positive net income and positive EPS for the second quarter in a row, both of which marked a nice contrast to the losses we experienced in Q4 2020. We also more than doubled our quarterly adjusted EBITDA compared to Q4 2020. And we generated more than $50 million in free cash flow for the last half of the year. We are proud of our results and the momentum we are building. I am proud of the Gogo team, which continues to rise to the challenge of meeting exceptional demand and executing on our strategic initiatives in a supply-constrained world. Now let me turn to our strategic initiatives for a moment. Gogo has two major strategic initiatives: deepening our competitive moat and driving long-term shareholder value. First, enhancing our ATG network to keep pace with customer connectivity expectations; and second, driving penetration of our flexible, future-proof AVANCE platform. I'll start with enhancing our ATG network. The first step in the successful execution of that objective is the commercial launch of our Gogo 5G network in the second half of this year. 5G data speed and low latency will be a top differentiator for Gogo as business customers increasingly require seamless video conferencing and VPN access, and leisure travelers expect living room quality streaming capability for accessing video-intense social media. We previously announced and continue to expect Gogo 5G to deliver 25 megabits per second on average, with peak speeds in the 75 to 80 megabits per second range. This represents a significant improvement over the already competitive speed AVANCE delivers today, leapfrogging both geo-satellite competitors and potential ATG competitors. As a reminder, our potential ATG competitor is still working toward a 4G network launch that they say will deliver speeds roughly equivalent to what we already provide with AVANCE L5, and significantly slower than what we will deliver with Gogo 5G. According to our potential competitor's plan, their eventual 4G solution will not compete with Gogo 5G on speed, not to mention many other product and service deficiencies that make the successful launch of their product highly improbable. As many of you may know, this potential competitor filed a lawsuit against us on Monday alleging that our 5G implementation infringes on four of their patents, this from a company that has invested hundreds of millions of dollars over the past eight years and is now six years late on delivering a functioning nationwide network. Our patent attorneys and engineers have studied the entire SmartSky patent portfolio, and we know these four patents very well. I can assure you we do not infringe upon those patents, and we will fight this lawsuit with extreme vigor. Now let me move to 5G advantages over geo-satellite competitors. First, they are limited to the super, mid, and heavy jet segments of the market due to the size and weight of their gimbaled antennas. Their equipment is more expensive and more difficult to install than ATG. More importantly, we believe that 5G will outperform geo in both speed and latency. Based on user customer surveys we have conducted, geo-satellite providers deliver speeds of 2 to 17 megabits per second depending on the provider, which is slower than what our 5G will offer. But more importantly, due to the 44,000-mile round trip that packets have to travel to reach the internet and then return to the aircraft, they suffer from very high latency, making interactive video difficult. While our ATG network is limited to the continent of the United States and Canada, geo-satellites have the advantage of near-global coverage. However, 87% of our global business aviation flight hours are in North America and 77% are within the United States, which gives us a very large addressable market. In terms of 5G milestones, we have now passed all technical hurdles and are in the deployment and commercial launch phase of our 5G program. We reached a major deployment milestone at the end of last year when we completed a seven-tier test pad on time and on budget. The test pad includes sites in both remote and populated locations in order to validate that the networking is operating as designed. We will complete the other 143 towers at a rapid pace throughout the first half of '22. Last week, we announced that the Gogo 5G aircraft antenna has received STC and Parts Manufacturer Approval (PMA) from the FAA. Receipt of PMA is an important milestone as it essentially means that the FAA has green-lighted the mass production of our 5G radio antennas ahead of our 5G deployment. On the commercial side, we have already signed Jet Edge as Gogo's 5G launch customer. Jet Edge has AVANCE L5 installed across most of its large cabin fleet today. We will update 50 of those aircraft to Gogo 5G, which gives us a really strong head start on delivering on our 5G projections. Additionally, Component Aviation, the largest independent MRO in the world, is upgrading all its existing full equipment AVANCE L5 STCs to include Gogo 5G, which will cover more than 30 aircraft models including those manufactured by Bombardier, Gulfstream, Dussault, and Textron. As Barry will touch on in a moment, 2022 is a big investment year as we deploy the 5G network, ramp up sales and marketing, and fund inventory to support installation demand. It's worth noting that we expect to fund the entire 5G network out of internally generated cash flow. In fact, just one year of interest savings from recent REIT financing more than covers our entire 5G CapEx cost. Now let me move to our other major strategic initiative: AVANCE penetration. AVANCE is a platform, not just a product, that runs across multiple form factors and computing platforms and affords us tremendous opportunities to drive profitable growth by improving stickiness, introducing adjacent products, and penetrating adjacent markets. AVANCE allows us many opportunities for growth, but for the purpose of this conversation, one of the more important features of AVANCE is its multi-bearer capability, which allows us to add multiple networks to the aircraft in order to deliver more data capacity for passengers and crew. For instance, we could partner with a global LEO provider and add capacity for a new LEO network to AVANCE's existing ATG capacity to deliver even more data to the aircraft. We could achieve this by simply developing an ESA antenna that sits on the fuselage of the plane and plugs into the AVANCE platform inside the plane. To make the math clearer, let's say that in five years we improve ATG to deliver 50 megabits per second. If, in that same timeframe, LEO networks are deployed that can deliver 100 megabits per second, adding the LEO network to the existing AVANCE ATG installation would deliver 150 megabits per second, which is much greater than either the ATG or LEO network would deliver on their own. The global broadband initiative would allow us to first pursue the 14,000 business aircraft outside North America, then pursue geo-satellite installations on large North American jets to fly global missions, and, lastly, to strengthen our core North American market of medium-sized and smaller aircraft by offering LEO capacity if they need more capacity than what ATG alone can provide. We believe that we have some natural advantages over potential LEO competitors in pursuing the global LEO broadband initiative. First, our AVANCE installed base is several times larger than that of our competitors. It will be far cheaper for those aircraft to upgrade with Gogo and leverage the AVANCE system they already have in place than to remove AVANCE and install a new system for all the functionality that AVANCE already provides. Second, our deeply embedded and mutually profitable relationships with OEMs and dealers. We have already launched with all business aircraft and have our 210 dealer network already outfitted to install them. Adding an ESA to their installations will be relatively simple compared to implementing an entirely new product. Third, our speed to market. We can simply amend the OEM type certificates and aftermarket supplemental type certificates that already exist for AVANCE to add the ESA antenna, just as we are doing now for 5G, giving us a speed-to-market advantage over competitors who will be starting from scratch. In short, we see tremendous upside in the LEO strategy via AVANCE. If we proceed, we expect to accelerate our growth in the latter half of this decade, and we expect our investments to be modest compared to our 5G investment, spread over several years. Another way AVANCE presents us with growth opportunities is through our ability to remix common components into new form factors while using the same AVANCE software to address the specific needs of adjacent markets. Our entry into the general aviation market is a good example. We accomplished this by developing the small form factor AVANCE L3 and lowering our service ceiling to 3,000 feet with a software upgrade, not an equipment upgrade. With those changes, we have gained traction both in the small fuselage segment of the business aviation market and in the 200,000 strong general aviation markets, two markets where our competitor's equipment is too large to compete. The beauty of this is that with the same software and using common AVANCE components, we can continue to develop new form factors that will further help us penetrate those markets. To summarize, AVANCE provides many opportunities to improve equipment stickiness, introduce adjacent products, and expand into adjacent markets. For those reasons, growing the AVANCE installed base is core to our strategy, and we have seen considerable success with that. AVANCE is the most successful broadband product ever launched in business aviation, with just over 2,500 aircraft online by year-end 2021, an increase of 46% over the prior year, and it's installed on more aircraft than our two biggest competitors combined. We reported 105 net AVANCE installs in the month of December alone, and 267 for the quarter. We project at least 25% growth in AVANCE unit shipments this year. As I already mentioned, we have already booked 90% of those orders. We also see demand drivers that lead us to believe we can exceed our 25% unit growth targets and are intensely focused on our supply chain to see if we can make that happen. Now, I will touch briefly on our financial guidance before turning the call over to Barry, beginning with a few caveats. First, our 2022 guidance does not include potential strategic investments like the LEO global broadband product I discussed a moment ago. Assuming the green light for those initiatives, we will incorporate those into our projections and update guidance as appropriate. Second, long characterized 2022 as an investment year, focused on finishing our 5G deployment and supporting its launch with all necessary resources for success. With that said, we expect to still grow adjusted EBITDA and maintain positive free cash flow despite those investments. We are also expanding and raising our long-term financial targets, driven by strong equipment sales we are seeing today and the strengths I highlighted earlier in the call. Both of which will drive sticky, high-margin recurring service revenue for many years to come. In turn, those new financial targets are the springboard for our capital allocation strategy, which Barry will walk you through in a minute. We have our 5G investment well in hand, and we are zeroed in on our target leverage ratio. As soon as we complete sizing our strategic growth opportunities, we can focus on our approach to returning capital to shareholders. Let me conclude by saying we believe Gogo presents a unique and compelling opportunity. We operate in an underpenetrated market that should provide opportunities for years of profitable growth. We differentiate ourselves based on our deep understanding of that market and our ability to create unique services and products tailored to the specific needs of that market. Additionally, we see numerous opportunities to deploy modest amounts of capital into adjacent products and markets to accelerate profitable growth in the latter half of the decade. We are excited about the future and Gogo's capacity to deliver for our customers, colleagues, and shareholders as we adhere to that strategy for long-term value creation. And now, I'll turn it over to Barry.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Thanks, Oak, and good morning everyone. We are pleased to have capped off a very strong 2021 by continuing to set new records in the fourth quarter. Our 2022 financial guidance and the increased long-term targets we announced this morning underscore our confidence in the significant value creation opportunity ahead. Before we talk about our expectations in more detail, I'll walk through our fourth quarter results, starting with the top line. Total revenue for the fourth quarter was $92.3 million, an increase of 19% year-over-year, and a 6% sequential increase, driven by strong growth in both service and equipment revenue as demand continued to exceed our expectations. Gogo's top line growth reflects the accelerating strength of the business aviation market and Gogo's unique ability to capitalize on that growing demand. A record service revenue of $69.3 million in the fourth quarter represents an increase of 22% year-over-year, primarily driven by more AVANCE units coming online and stronger ARPU. On a sequential basis, our fourth quarter service revenue grew by 5%. ATG aircraft online reached record levels of 6,400, up 11% compared to the fourth quarter of last year, and 4% sequentially. As Oak highlighted, AOL growth accompanied by our subscription-based service revenue is the biggest driver of our long-term value creation, as we are fortunate to operate in an underpenetrated BA market with significant headroom for continued growth. New customer activations represented 66% of our total activations during the quarter, the strongest ratio in two years. To further demonstrate the strength of demand for connectivity, data usage continues to grow alongside aircraft online, growing 78% in the fourth quarter of 2021 over pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter of 2019. ARPU grew to $3,301, representing an increase of 8% year-over-year and 1% sequentially. As Oak mentioned, demand for data by passengers, as well as our unlimited streaming plan and other innovative new products we've introduced, contributed to this continued ARPU expansion. Turning now to equipment revenue, Gogo delivered very strong equipment revenue of $23 million for the fourth quarter, an 11% year-over-year increase, and a 10% increase sequentially, reflecting strong demand for both our AVANCE L3 and L5 products. We had a record 2,085 AVANCE product shipments in the fourth quarter, representing 10% growth year-over-year and 8% growth sequentially, with increases in both the aftermarket and OEM channels. I want to highlight that our 887 total AVANCE shipments in fiscal 2021 represent 40% year-over-year growth. These strong results are based on the robust market demand, which began in late 2020 and increased throughout 2021, ultimately exceeding our original 2021 internal budget by 30%. We exited 2020 by posting an outstanding fourth quarter through a combination of typical seasonal strength, promotional activity, and the beginning of business aviation's recovery from the effects of the pandemic. The confluence of these factors somewhat masked the fundamental demand-driving shifts that solidified and accelerated during 2021, driving unprecedented demand for Gogo equipment. Looking to 2022, we are experiencing continued strength in AVANCE shipments and now expect growth at or above the high end of our previous expectation of 20% to 25% growth over 2021 levels. We exited the fourth quarter of 2021 with a very robust order backlog, representing again, 90% of our expected equipment shipments for 2022. This backlog meaningfully de-risks the achievement of the targets we communicated this morning. I'll provide more color on our guidance later in my remarks. Now, turning to profitability, Gogo delivered service margins of 80% in the fourth quarter, ahead of our expectations, largely due to lower than anticipated network costs. Excluding the impact of the regulatory surcharge credit that bolstered our third quarter service margins, our service margins increased by 250 basis points sequentially. We expect our long-term service margins to trend to the high 70% range throughout our five-year planning horizon. On the equipment side, Gogo delivered equipment margins of 37% in the fourth quarter, representing a 400 basis points sequential decrease. This decrease is consistent with the expectations we set on previous calls for declining equipment margins in the near and intermediate terms, aiming to pursue our strategic objective of increasing AVANCE penetration, which Oak has discussed in some detail. In alignment with this objective, we anticipate equipment margins to be lower in 2022 than they were in 2021. Importantly, from a financial perspective, AVANCE equipment sales are foundational for high-margin recurring service revenue, which is the engine of our future value creation. Moving to operating expenses, fourth quarter combined engineering, design, and development, sales and marketing, and general and administrative expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization, totaled $28 million, a decrease of 8% year-over-year. This decrease reflected the increased employee bonus expense recorded in Q4 2020, as we made the decision to shift the form of the annual bonus payment from stock-based compensation to cash. Now, I will provide some additional detail on our Gogo 5G program and spending profile. I'll start by saying we are on track to deploy our networks in the second half of 2022, on time and on budget. As planned, our 5G spend increased in the fourth quarter to $4.6 million, comprised of $1.7 million in OpEx and $2.9 million in CapEx. I'll note that our GAAP 5G CapEx spend came in lower than we expected for this quarter, due to a lag in the timing of $4 million in invoices that will be paid and reported in the first quarter of 2022. To be clear, the timing of this reported spend is not indicative of a slowdown in our deployment schedule. For 2022, we have budgeted external development and deployment OpEx of $11 million, an increase of $7 million over 2021, along with additional Gogo 5G-related investments in marketing, production operations, and network costs of $6 million. This results in an approximately $13 million increase in total OpEx related to 5G in 2022 versus 2021. This will impact the adjusted EBITDA growth rate for 2022. To reiterate our overall expectations for CapEx, we expect that over 90% of our total Gogo 5G investment will be completed by the end of 2022. We expect 2022 CapEx to be approximately $65 million, with approximately $50 million of that spent tied to Gogo 5G. After Gogo 5G is launched, we continue to expect ongoing capital expenditures in the $15 million to $20 million range annually, supporting very attractive adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rates in 2023 and beyond. Now, on to our bottom line. As expected, our adjusted EBITDA was slightly lower in the fourth quarter at $39.6 million, down 3% sequentially due to the one-time regulatory surcharge credit in Q3, and higher operating expenses in the fourth quarter as anticipated. On a year-over-year basis, quarterly adjusted EBITDA more than doubled, driven by significantly higher profit from our subscription-based service revenue as we have grown AOL by nearly 11% year-over-year. Last year's fourth quarter also included the higher bonus expense I described. As mentioned earlier, Gogo generated positive net income from continuing operations for the second consecutive quarter. Our reported net income includes an income tax benefit of $188 million in the fourth quarter, due to the partial release of the valuation allowance on our deferred tax assets. Based on our expectation for continuing strong operating performance, additional reversals of our remaining valuation allowance of $111 million may occur within the next 12 to 18 months. Importantly, even excluding the impact of the valuation allowance, Gogo delivered positive net income from continuing operations of $21.5 million in the fourth quarter. This translates to basic earnings per share from continuing operations of $0.18 and diluted earnings per share of $0.17. As of December 31, 2021, Gogo had $689 million in federal net operating losses (NOLs). With our substantial NOL position, we do not expect to pay meaningful cash taxes for an extended period, but we may incur some cash taxes by the end of our planning horizon. For the fourth quarter, Gogo generated record free cash flow of $25.7 million, reflecting a strong top line and adjusted EBITDA performance. This also includes the impact of the comprehensive refinancing we completed in April, which materially reduced our annual interest expense and enhanced our strategic and financial flexibility. While we expect some shifts quarter-to-quarter, for example, due to the timing of our 5G expenditures, our expectation is to deliver positive annual free cash flow going forward. As you know, we significantly increased expectations for free cash flow in 2023 and 2025 on our third quarter call. As I will talk about in a moment, we continue to expect a very significant ramp in free cash flow beginning in 2023. Before I move to a discussion of Gogo's capital allocation priorities and our balance sheet position, I will briefly summarize our full-year 2021 fiscal results. We achieved significant top-line growth due to strong tailwinds driving the business aviation market, which by all indications are sustaining, coupled with solid execution. Gogo generated total revenue of $335.7 million, up 24% from 2020, and well above the high-end of our guidance range. We delivered service revenue of $259.6 million, up 22% from 2020, with service gross profit also growing 22%, a key contributor to our significant free cash flow growth. Equipment revenue was $76.1 million for the full year, up 32% from 2020, well above our expectations, as I mentioned. For the full year 2021, we achieved adjusted EBITDA of $151 million, a 54% year-over-year increase and also significantly ahead of our 2021 guidance. Our free cash flow for the year was $58 million, well ahead of the more than $40 million expectation we set for the full year on our November 21st earnings call. All in, 2021 was a remarkable year. The strength of the business aviation market, customers' increasing demand for connectivity, and Gogo's robust business model as a pure play business aviation company all contributed to this outsized performance. We believe this positions us well for significant future value creation. Now, let's turn to a discussion of our balance sheet. Gogo is in a very strong liquidity position. We exited 2021 with a cash balance of $145.9 million, and our $100 million revolver remains undrawn. At the end of the fourth quarter, we had approximately $824 million in outstanding debt, including the $721.4 million term loan B and approximately $103 million in outstanding convertible notes. Based on our strong financial performance in 2021, we exited the year with a net leverage ratio of 4.5 times adjusted EBITDA. Notably, this is down from a net leverage ratio well into double digits four years ago. We are tremendously proud of the progress Gogo has made on our debt reduction goals. The sale of our CA business on December 1, 2021, and the comprehensive refinancing completed in April 2021 have enabled us to reduce our debt by nearly one-third from 2020 levels. As a result of our progress, Gogo's balance sheet is now a competitive strength. As we mentioned on our second and third quarter earnings calls, Gogo committed approximately $10 million in cash for additional inventory purchases during 2022 to ensure we can deliver on equipment orders that already stretch well into 2022. Looking ahead, as previously announced, we expect to settle any conversions of the $103 million of convertible notes in stock prior to their maturity on May 15. Given our current stock price relative to the $6 conversion price, we expect all holders will convert into a total of approximately 17.1 million shares. As a result of our comprehensive refinancing plan, our annualized cash interest expense will have been reduced from $111 million before our April 2021 refinancing to approximately $33 million after the convertible notes mature in May of this year. Our strong balance sheet and operating performance provide us with significant strategic and financial flexibility. On previous calls, we indicated that we would pursue a balanced capital allocation strategy focused on four primary actions in the following order of priority. First, enhancing the capacity and performance of our ATG network through the deployment of Gogo 5G. Second, reducing overall leverage to an appropriate operating level. Third, making strategic investments in our business, such as the global broadband initiative to capitalize on market opportunities and further strengthen our competitive position. Finally, returning capital to shareholders. We made considerable progress on the first two of these actions with Gogo 5G on track and de-leveraging ahead of schedule, driven by our strong financial results. We are now actively addressing the latter two priorities. With respect to announcing strategic investments, as Oak discussed, Gogo is seriously evaluating a LEO-based global broadband initiative. This would increase the number of planes in our addressable market and further defend our strategic position in North America. While we are also exploring other strategic investments, we would only proceed if they are meaningfully value-enhancing to our business. Regarding our fourth priority, the timing and amount of a potential return of capital will be informed by our capital structure strategy. Our targeted capital structure includes maintaining minimum available liquidity of $125 million, with the majority of this liquidity comprised of cash but also considering our revolver capacity. Secondly, a targeted net leverage ratio of less than four times. We expect to achieve this net leverage target in the second quarter of 2022 after the expected conversion of our convertible notes in May. Given our strong cash position and the additional dilution from the expected conversion of our convertible notes, our Board is evaluating capital allocation strategies that may include share repurchase. Let me add one final housekeeping point related to our capital structure. You may remember that when GTCR exchanged its convertible notes to become stock last April, we entered into a registration rights agreement that gives GTCR customary demand and piggyback rights with respect to shares held by GTCR and its affiliates. The registration rights agreement, as amended, requires the company to have a shelf registration statement declared effective by May 23, 2022. Now, I'll turn to the guidance we announced this morning, starting with some context on our 2022 projections. We continue to expect significant top-line growth. At the end of September, we indicated that we expect growth in AVANCE shipments of at least 25% in 2022, and that was on top of the strong 2021 performance we've outlined. I'll reiterate that 90% of the equipment revenue included in our 2022 top-line guidance is already in our backlog, which significantly de-risks our 2022 revenue plan. In light of our expectations for strong top-line growth, we view 2022 as an investment year, particularly for Gogo 5G, and we want to be clear that we don't expect our bottom line to grow at the pace we delivered in 2021. Our priority is to deploy our 5G network and support its successful launch with healthy sales and marketing investments. We also anticipate higher working capital needs as we meet the higher demand for AVANCE unit shipments. A lighter free cash flow range reflects potential additional spending to secure inventory in support of that demand. We expect our EBITDA to be weighted towards the second half of 2022, which will set the stage for substantial increases in EBITDA, and especially free cash flow growth in 2023. Turning to the numbers, we announced the following 2022 guidance in our press release this morning. We expect 2022 revenue in the range of $380 million to $395 million, reflecting double-digit growth in both service and equipment revenue. We anticipate adjusted EBITDA for 2022 in the range of $150 million to $160 million, reflecting a planned increase in global 5G investment as previously discussed. We expect free cash flow to be in the range of $25 million to $45 million, including cash interest payments of approximately $36 million, and capital expenditures of approximately $65 million, with approximately $50 million of the CapEx spend tied to Gogo 5G. The 2022 guidance and long-term targets are derived from our baseline budget and recently updated baseline long-term model, which includes Gogo 5G, but do not include potential strategic investments currently under consideration, including a global broadband initiative. The 2022 adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow guidance, and long-term targets do include a preliminary estimate of the defense cost for this SmartSky lawsuit filed against Gogo this week. Now turning to our long-term targets, we are updating our baseline long-term targets for revenue growth at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15% from 2021 through 2026. It's worth noting that we expect to maintain this 15% CAGR target for an additional year despite 2021 representing a 24% growth over 2020 as the initial year; annual adjusted EBITDA margins approaching 50% by 2026, up from the low 40s in 2022 and 2023. Free cash flow should reach approximately $125 million in 2023 following the deployment of the Gogo 5G network in 2022, increasing to over $200 million beginning in 2025. Before we open the call up to questions, I want to reiterate our thanks to the entire Gogo team for the outstanding performance this quarter and throughout 2021. Our results testify our dedication, ingenuity, and unwavering focus on delivering for our customers and achieving our strategic goals. Thank you, team. Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. We are now ready for our first question.
Operator, Operator
Your first question comes from Phil Cusick with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open. You may now ask your question.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst
Hi. This is Amir for Phil. Any update on supply chain for getting the ATG unit this year? At what level of growth might you hit some issues? And then, beyond that, regarding the expected revenue growth for 2022, can you break out your expectations for equipment versus service revenue growth?
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Well, I'll take the supply chain piece, and Barry can take the breakout on growth. You know, managing supply chain is very tricky these days, as I'm sure you are aware, and we have secured supply with guarantees, et cetera, to meet our equipment budget and the 25% unit growth that we forecast. We are very busy trying to secure more supply, and I think we have made substantial progress on that. We have two tiers. We have an increase in demand that we see out there that we like to meet, which is one level target, and I think we are getting great focus on that. We probably have more guidance on that later in the year. Then we have more of a stretched goal for the second half that we are still working hard on trying to secure. It’s a challenging world, but our balance sheet is helping us out as we can come in and prepay where we need to. Additionally, our common componentry strategy where L3, L5, and future form factors use the same components gives us the ability to have larger orders and more influence with our suppliers. So, both of those things are helping us out right now, and we are optimistic that we're not at the point where we're going to have to raise equipment guidance.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
And Amir, on your question about the breakout, we aren't providing details on them. I would just say that we expect strong growth in both service and equipment revenue, and we expect equipment revenue to grow at a slightly higher rate than service revenue because of the demand that we are seeing.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst
Thank you, guys. And one more if I may, on the CapEx spend in 2022, I assume you'll be thinking about the cadence of that and some of that CapEx for 5G rollover into 2023? Thank you.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Yes. The CapEx spend, as you know, is largely tied to the tower buildup in 2022. So, that CapEx spend is going to be primarily loaded in the first three quarters. That will be spread throughout the year. There will be some CapEx for 5G continuing into 2023, but 90% of the CapEx spend will be completed by the end of 2022, which is our expectation.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst
Thank you, guys. Congrats on the quarter.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Thanks, Amir.
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Thanks, Amir.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Scott Searle with ROTH Capital. Your line is open. You may now ask your question.
Scott Searle, Analyst
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions; nice job on the quarter, guys. Hey, maybe just quickly to jump into the service provider revenue and guidance for 2022, I'm wondering how you are seeing ARPU's trend, given the uptake of allowance, given the pending 3G, would you assume your 5G launch? And also, you are starting to see GA contribution, which I assume comes in at lower ARPUs. And then I had a follow-up.
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Yes, Scott, I think we have guided to sort of 3%-4% ARPU growth over time in the five-year guidance. We kind of exceeded that this year, because we had a lot of upward pressure on ARPU from our unlimited streaming and data plan. I think we still continue to see ARPU growth, and Barry can give you the exact number, but in the 3%-4% growth range for our five-year model, and I think that’s kind of what we would guidance to this year.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Over time, we expect 13% to be driven by AOL growth, and 3% from ARPU growth, as we see in the transition from '21 to '26.
Scott Searle, Analyst
Got you. And then, Oak, maybe if I could dive into the 15% CAGR through 2026, it's a big number, a step-up from what you guys have been talking about before, certainly there are strong demand characteristics in terms of underpenetration in the marketplace. But I'm wondering why your comfort level is so strong at this current time? And a couple of items in clarifications, what are you thinking about in terms of GA contribution? It sounds like LEO contribution—well, potential LEO contribution really isn't built into that; that comes in the back half of the decade. And maybe if you can get to on top of that, too, the potential LEO investment, I'm not sure if I have heard you size the magnitude of what that would require? Thanks.
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Yes, sure. Scott, let's break that question down into a couple of pieces. The great thing about that number frankly is that we lost a high-growth year of 24% at the beginning of this year, the recovery from COVID led to tremendously strong growth. That came out of the model, and we added another year at the end of it. So, being able to hang in at that 15% CAGR we thought was a good indication. In terms of projections, we built these models from the bottom up, looking at demand in various market segments and how it flows through the distribution channels. So, we have pretty good visibility ahead at least over the next couple of years. When you look at the unpenetrated market and the traction we are gaining in less- penetrated market segments, we feel confident in these numbers barring anything like a major global recession or unfortunate global events causing some macro impacts on us. So, we feel good about that. In terms of GA, what we have in our model now includes both our current GA commitments and a few other items we think are high probability; it's not a significant figure but there's some GA included. LEO is not in the numbers at this point, in our vernacular we call that an overlay. It sits as a long-term financial model that has not been rolled into our long-term projections yet. When we green-light it, we will move forward. We haven't really sized it, other than to say it would be relatively modest compared to our 5G investments; our 5G investment is more front-loaded, while LEO investments will be spread out over a couple of years.
Scott Searle, Analyst
Perfect, thanks. Nice quarter, guys.
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
You bet.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Thanks, Scott.
Operator, Operator
And your next question comes from the line of Lance Vitanza with Cowen. Your line is open.
Lance Vitanza, Analyst
Thanks, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I had two. The first is on the long-term financial targets, the meaningful increase in your targeted EBITDA margin, and I'm wondering if you could discuss the factors that are leading to your more encouraging outlook there. In particular, how does potential competition factor into that longer-term target, especially if SmartSky gets it back together? Should we expect that to negatively impact your margin target?
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
I'll start from the end, and then Barry will take the beginning of the question. In our long-term model, we do factor in competition, and we project a continued positive trend for our geo-competitors in the segment of the market they address or are starting to address. Regarding SmartSky, we have included them in our projections, but we do not project much success, though to be conservative we have assumed they will eventually launch and capture some portion of the aircraft. As we monitor them and conduct deep analyses, we believe their chances of success are low, but we include that in our models.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
To your question about EBITDA margins and why we see growth there, there are a couple of drivers of that, although in a couple of years we do expect lower equipment margins as we invest in AVANCE penetration, which we’ve talked about. So, what's really driving that expanded margin over time is the growth in service revenue, combined with operating leverage. When you look at OpEx as a percentage of revenue, we expect that to come down meaningfully as we drive the kind of G&A reductions that we have discussed for the past couple of years. We are seeing this occur, and so really it’s a combination of a strong mix of service revenue and operating leverage without having to increase OpEx at the same rate as revenues grow over time.
Lance Vitanza, Analyst
Thanks. Just finally from me, Oak, you provided assurances that Gogo has not infringed on the four patents identified in the current SmartSky lawsuit, but can you provide assurance that Gogo hasn't infringed on any of their other patents as well?
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Yes, our lawyers and engineers have reviewed all of their patents, and we do not infringe on any valid patents of theirs. We have stated that before. I'm not going to talk about these four in particular, just because from a litigation perspective we don't want to tip our hand in any way to them, and they do listen to these calls. So, I refrain from discussing the four in particular.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Thanks. Good morning, everyone.
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Hey, Ric.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Hey, Ric.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Couple of questions. One to follow up on supply chain, which is a key item in a lot of industries. It sounds like you've been trying to get some more supply. How should we think about dollar-wise? Last year, you spent about $10 million to get in this kind of pre-purchase stuff. What is your estimate for this year to secure supply?
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Yes, Ric, the $10 million figure, we didn't spend all of that last year, that's the amount that we are looking to spend this year. We have identified a large need for that, but not all of it is allocated yet. So, we will use that to drive it in combination with the number of actions we've taken, such as running the IMRP program, which has a much longer horizon of 18 to 24 months, illustrating demand that we can place orders against so we can get significant allocation. We have designed products with alternative parts that we can obtain and aren’t solely reliant on sole-source parts. We're helping some of our suppliers source parts when they cannot fulfill that need. We believe that we're well positioned in terms of delivering on the expectations for equipment we set in this call.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
That makes sense. Another hot topic is inflation. How are you guys looking at inflation? How is it affecting your business?
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Yes, we have some inflation built into our plans. We have wage inflation included. We have cost inflation on materials also included. Interestingly, a meaningful portion of our cost structure is not strictly tied to inflationary trends. For example, network operations and backhaul have even seen reductions over time as backhaul costs become more aggressive. The high gross margins we maintain mitigate some vulnerabilities we face from inflation, but it is something we are mindful of.
Ric Prentiss, Analyst
Last one from me is, over the months of November to December to January, the phrase '5G' started taking on a very different connotation to consumers—the process of the FAA going up to the media scaring people about what could happen with air travel with the C-band. What have you heard from your OEMs and dealers and end users about 5G? Are they concerned about what 5G means? Are they concerned about anything about aviation that way? Is it affecting your sales or just the concept of what 5G means?
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
We have communicated well with our distribution channels, and they all understand the difference between the C-band and the spectrum we operate in. The media has confused C-band and 5G. 5G uses many different spectrums, and the spectrum we use isn't even close to the spectrum in question. Therefore, we haven't seen any impact on our sales as a result of that.
Landon Park, Analyst
Thank you. Good morning everyone.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Hi, Landon.
Landon Park, Analyst
I was wondering if last quarter you said that your backlog lead time had stretched up to six months. I think you referenced earlier today that you are already taking measures for the year 2023. So, where is that lead time at now versus last quarter? And when might that start to normalize?
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
We are very creative in how we manage lead time. We don’t want to miss an install if the opportunity arises. In our market, jets come in for maintenance in a very scheduled manner. The MROs and dealers are relatively booked for the year. We’ve been able to meet that demand so far. If somebody comes in needing a box in three months, we aim to provide it. As of now, technically, we’re booked into the fourth quarter, but we never want to miss any orders.
Landon Park, Analyst
Great, thanks for that color. And then on capital returns, I think you guys referenced the four times you’ve seen leverage. Is that also the long-term level that you are comfortable with when considering buybacks or dividends, or how do you think about where that long-term leverage should settle out?
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Yes, we think about it in two phases, Landon. The first is that we want to get to a net leverage ratio of less than four times. This will be the threshold at which we start to think about when to consider return capital and what that timing might be. We need to make sure we finish sizing strategic investments to inform that decision. So, getting less than four times leverage remains the initial target. When we reach it, we will refine our future operating decisions.
Landon Park, Analyst
Okay, great. Then just last one from me, on the lawsuit and the preliminary injunction, do you have an expected timeline on when that matter could at least be settled?
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
No, I mean frankly this news is relatively new. We did anticipate this happening at some point. We actually thought it would happen a little closer to our 5G launch than it is. We have not even received papers yet. But we factored this into our budget, and we had some money already set aside for defense. Any guidance on timing now would be premature.
Landon Park, Analyst
Okay, great. Thanks very much.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Thank you, Landon.
Operator, Operator
Your last question comes from the line of Louie DiPalma with William Blair. Your line is open.
Louie DiPalma, Analyst
Great, thanks. Oak, Barry, and Will, good morning. For Barry, can you please repeat the comments that you said about the potential share buyback? I think that it seems to be a pretty significant contrast relative to Gogo's history when you previously alluded to how you had 10 times leverage and were used to burning $100 million or more in cash on a quarterly basis. What are the different stages and thresholds in terms of leverage and timeline associated with 5G and the LEO broadband initiative that investors should consider as you and your Board evaluate a potential share buyback?
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Yes. We're certainly in a very different place than we were starting those conversations with you before. So, it’s a privilege to be in this position and to consider these things. So, what we shared is that we expect to achieve our net leverage target in Q2 of '22 after the conversion of the convertible notes in May. Given our strong cash position and the dilution from that conversion, our Board is evaluating capital allocation strategies that may include share repurchasing. It is something that we are looking into. The timing and amount of that return will be informed by our capital structure strategy. Our targeted capital structure includes maintaining minimum available liquidity of $125 million, primarily in cash but also considering revolver capacity, and a targeted net leverage ratio of less than four times. We expect to achieve that target in the second quarter of 2022 after the expected equitization of the convertible notes. Based on our strong cash position, our Board is evaluating strategies for capital allocation including share repurchase.
Louie DiPalma, Analyst
Thanks, Barry. And for Oak, I was wondering what the development status is for LEO satellite antennas for business aviation? Are there any antennas available now that you are trialing on aircraft? Or are there any available for other service providers? Or are these antennas still in the development stages?
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
We are still in the development stages, Louie; there is a lot of debate around antennas that will access LEO constellations. We think the best technology is the electronically steerable antenna. We are in the process of discussing with potential partners regarding the development of one. We won’t share too much about our design intricacies, but we have strong insights into the BA market. Our goal is to develop something specific to that market, and will fit its requirements. In terms of ESAs, they have been employed in military applications for quite some time, and they are currently in development for commercial aviation. There are some that I think are in experimental stages now and have flown on jets. However, those are much larger than what fits on business aviation aircraft. The challenge is that the smaller the antenna, the lower the power requirement. As the power decreases, maintaining the link budget becomes more difficult with a smaller antenna. This is challenging in business aviation. However, we are optimistic as we continue to work on this.
Louie DiPalma, Analyst
And one final question, Oak. Do you have an estimate for how many days it would take an MRO to install the 5G antenna for a customer that already has the AVANCE L5 system? How complicated will that upgrade be?
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
The antenna swap will involve the addition of a small modem box as well. We are looking to simplify this over time, and I will not estimate the exact time it would take. I think my idea is that partners will keep that information between themselves and their customers. It isn’t as complicated as installing a new system because the wiring is already in place, the main box is installed, and cabin access points have already been set up, all of which saves time. The other point I wanted to emphasize—every now and then I have a senior moment—the other component we are aiming to deliver is shipping antennas. Now that we have the TMA, we will begin shipments of equipment that people can pre-fit with the antennas. This way, during maintenance, they will be ready for 5G deployment when the product officially launches.
Louie DiPalma, Analyst
Sounds good, thanks. Thanks, everyone, and congrats on the quarter.
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Thank you, Louie.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. I would like to turn the conference back to the company for any closing remarks.
Oakleigh Thorne, Chairman and CEO
Thank you. That concludes our fourth quarter call. We appreciate your participation and talk soon. Have a great day.
Barry Rowan, Executive Vice President and CFO
Thank you all.
Operator, Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and have a wonderful day. You may all disconnect.