Earnings Call Transcript - GSM Q3 2025

Operator, Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Ferroglobe's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Please note that this call may be recorded. I will now hand it over to Alex Rotonen, Ferroglobe's Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

Alex Rotonen, VP of Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's third quarter 2025 conference call. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to Slide 2 at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and the exhibits to those filings, which are available on our website at ferroglobe.com. In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures. Reconciliation of non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings. Marco?

Marco Levi, CEO

Thank you, Alex, and thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your continued interest in Ferroglobe. As we have discussed in previous quarters, 2025 has been marked by significant challenges stemming from unfair trade practices in both the U.S. and EU. After taking proactive measures to create a more level-playing field, we are now beginning to see meaningful progress. Regulators are taking actions, and we are confident these measures will improve the balance in our markets and position Ferroglobe for a much stronger performance in 2026. Starting with the U.S. On April 24th, we filed a trade case in the U.S. regarding unfairly priced imports of silicon metal against Angola, Australia, Laos, Norway, and Thailand. On September 23rd, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued preliminary countervailing duties against 4 of those countries that subsidize silicon metal production with the following assessments: Australia, 41.3%; Laos, 240%; Norway, 16.9%; and Thailand, 31.3%. Furthermore, on September 26, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued preliminary antidumping duties on Angola and Laos of 68.5% and 94.4%, respectively. Additional preliminary antidumping determinations are expected by the end of the year for Australia and Norway. Initially, these antidumping measures were scheduled to be announced on November 21st, but due to the U.S. government shutdown, they are likely to be delayed. In parallel with U.S. action, the European Commission launched a safeguard investigation in December of last year, covering silicon metal, silicon-based alloys, and manganese alloys. The final decision is expected by November 18. A favorable outcome would represent a significant step forward for the industry and for Ferroglobe, and it would secure the EU's sustainable access to critical and strategic materials, which are required for infrastructure and defense industries. We remain optimistic about the results of this investigation. From a process perspective, the final implementation of safeguards requires approval from at least 15 of the 27 EU member states and by states representing at least 65% of the population. It is important to note that it is unclear at this time which of our products would be included in the safeguards and how these will be implemented. Next, I will provide an update on our partnership with Coreshell. They continue to make great strides in the development of silicon anode technology for next-generation batteries for EVs and other applications. Recently, Coreshell began shipping commercial scale 60 ampere EV pilot batteries to leading automotive OEMs for testing, a major step towards commercialization. The production ramp remains on schedule with consistently high yield and quality, underscoring the scalability of their process. Another advantage is that Coreshell's silicon-rich anode technology removes the reliance on graphite, of which over 90% is produced in China, paving the way for a fully domestic supply chain for EV batteries. Coreshell also expects to achieve commercial deployment of advanced battery systems used in robotics and defense applications in early 2026, a significant milestone that validates the potential of silicon anodes in high-performance batteries. I also want to congratulate Jonathan Tan and his team at Coreshell for winning the startup World Cup in October, a global competition featuring over 100 regional events across more than 20 countries. This recognition highlights the impressive progress the company has made in advancing cutting-edge battery materials. Finally, as we continue to expand our collaboration with Coreshell, we have finalized a joint development agreement and expect to establish a long-term supply agreement for high-quality silicon metal in the near future, positioning Ferroglobe to play a key role in the growing market for advanced battery materials as EV adoption accelerates. On the operational side, I am pleased to announce that we recently signed a new multiyear energy agreement in France effective January 1, 2026, guaranteeing us a very competitive energy price. In addition to low energy costs, the contract provides us the flexibility to operate our plants for up to 12 months a year, a significant benefit compared to our current agreement. This will simplify our S&OP process, inventory management and improve working capital as well as costs through higher fixed cost absorption. Next slide, please. The combination of soft demand and aggressive imports into the EU resulted in declining volumes and revenues in the third quarter. Overall, volumes in our main segments were down 21% from the prior year quarter. However, despite a 19% decline in revenues, we generated $80 million in adjusted EBITDA, only slightly below the second quarter, and improved free cash flow. Next slide, please. Moving to our segment update, I'll start with silicon metal on Slide 5. The silicon metal market remains extremely challenging in Europe with significant predatory imports from China, roughly doubling in the first 8 months of this year. The EU should not allow imports of silicon metal designated as a critical and strategic material by the EU to have unfettered access to the European market. Because of these dynamics, we were forced to idle all our silicon metal plants in Europe starting at the end of September. As a result of these imports and weak demand, our third quarter shipments in the EU declined by 51% compared to the second quarter. North American volumes remained stable despite soft demand. Within the silicon metal segment, the chemical sector continues to be negatively affected by the oversupply of imported siloxane from China into Europe and the U.S. Siloxane is used in the production of silicones. Index prices saw an uptick from the second quarter in both the U.S. and EU. However, the year-to-date index in Europe is down by 28%, while the U.S. index is flat. Looking forward, we believe the preliminary U.S. antidumping and countervailing duties are a positive indicator of what the final measures we have assembled and are expected to markedly improve the U.S. market dynamics in 2026. The chemical demand is still expected to remain challenging due to siloxane imports in the EU and, to a lesser extent, in the U.S. Next slide, please. After a strong second quarter, silicon-based alloys volumes declined across all regions with Europe decreasing by 15%, followed by the U.S. being down 10%. Overall, the volumes decreased by 19% due to soft demand. This was particularly noticeable in Europe, whereas low restart of post-holiday steel production resulted in a nearly 5% decline in the third quarter compared to the same period of the last year. The pricing environment deteriorated in the third quarter with the U.S. and European indexes declining by 5% and 6%, respectively. For the year-to-date period, the weakness in European steel production continued to weigh on the index, which is down 10%. The U.S. index is flat year-to-date. Steel production is forecasted to increase by 3.2% in 2026 in Europe. Combined with expected safeguards, this sets the stage for much stronger market conditions next year. We expect similar trends in North America based on conversations with our customers and a steady 2.2% projected growth in North American steel production. Overall, we are optimistic that 2026 will be a strong year for total silicon-based alloy sales for Ferroglobe. Next slide, please. Moving to manganese-based alloys. Following the multiyear high shipments in the second quarter, our manganese segment remained solid in the third quarter, despite a volume decline of 21%. This is more a result of an exceptional second quarter, which benefited from delayed shipments carried over from the first quarter and our cost competitive position. Another factor continuing to constrain the manganese segment is the increased shipments into Europe from India, Malaysia and Georgia. Manganese alloys index prices softened in the second quarter by 7% and 3%, respectively, for ferromanganese and silicon manganese. We anticipate manganese demand recovering in 2026 with expected 3.2% steel production growth in Europe and the announcement of safeguards later this month. I would now like to turn the call over to Beatriz Garcia-Cos, our CFO, to review the financial results in more detail. Beatriz?

Beatriz García-Cos Muntañola, CFO

Thank you, Marco. Please turn to Slide 9 for a review of the income statement. Third quarter sales declined 19% sequentially to $312 million, while raw material costs declined 29%. As a result, raw materials as a percentage of sales declined from 65% to 58%, mainly due to lower energy costs in Europe. The quarter-over-quarter sales decline was driven by lower volumes across the 3 product categories with silicon metal, silicon-based alloys, and manganese-based alloys declining 25%, 19%, and 21%, respectively. Volume declines were partially offset by higher average selling prices, which increased by 1%, 2%, and 1% for silicon metal, silicon-based alloys, and manganese-based alloys, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA decreased 15% from the prior quarter to $18 million versus $22 million in Q2. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved slightly to 5.9%, driven by cost improvements in the silicon metal and silicon-based alloy segment. This was partially offset by the manganese segment. Next slide, please. Moving to product segment bridges. Silicon metal revenue declined 24% sequentially to $99 million in Q3, driven by a 25% decrease in shipments to 34,000 tons, partially offset by a 1.2% increase in average selling prices to $2,950. Volume decline was driven by weak demand and dumping of Chinese silicon metal in the European region, as Marco mentioned earlier. Silicon metal adjusted EBITDA increased 81% to $12 million compared to $7 million in Q2, with margins increasing to 12%, up from 5% in the prior quarter. The margin improvement was driven primarily by lower energy costs in Spain and lower overall costs in North America. Next slide, please. Silicon-based alloys revenue declined 17% to $92 million, driven by a 19% sequentially decrease in volumes to 43,000 tons, partially offset by a 2% increase in average selling prices to $2,149 per ton. Adjusted EBITDA increased significantly to $12 million in the third quarter, up to 73% from $7 million in the second quarter. Margins expanded to 13% compared to 6% in the prior quarter. The improvement in adjusted EBITDA and margins was a result of lower energy costs in Spain and cost improvements in France. This was partially offset by higher production costs in the U.S. and South Africa. Next slide, please. Manganese-based alloys revenue declined 21% to $84 million versus $106 million in the prior quarter. The decline was primarily due to a 21% reduction in volumes to 70,000 tons, partially offset by a 1% increase in average selling prices to $1,214. Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $4 million versus $17 million in the prior quarter, a decrease of 74%. Adjusted EBITDA margins declined to 5% versus 16% in the prior quarter. This margin contraction was primarily driven by lower fixed cost absorption in Spain and higher raw material costs in France and Norway. Next slide, please. During the third quarter, we generated $21 million in operating cash flow, a 33% increase over the prior quarter. The improvement reflected a $7 million reduction in working capital on a cash flow basis. Energy rebate improved to $16 million from $7 million in the second quarter, while the change in taxes and others was largely due to profit-sharing agreements based on 2024 results. Capital expenditures totaled $19 million versus $15 million in Q2. Despite the challenging market conditions, we generated positive free cash flow in the third quarter. We expect a substantial release of working capital in the fourth quarter due to our focus on inventory management and early idling of production in France. Next slide, please. During the third quarter, we maintained a strong balance sheet while continuing our dividend program. We are declaring a fourth quarter dividend of $0.04 per share, in line with the previous quarter. It will be paid on December 29 to shareholders of record on December 22. We ended the quarter with a slight net debt position of $5 million compared to a positive net cash position of $10 million in Q2. Adjusted gross debt increased marginally from $125 million in the second quarter to $127 million in the third quarter, while total cash declined from $136 million in Q2 to $122 million in Q3. Our year-to-date CapEx was $48 million. At this time, I will turn the call back to Marco.

Marco Levi, CEO

Thank you, Beatriz. Before opening the call to Q&A, I'd like to provide key takeaways from today's presentation. We expect trade measures in the U.S. and EU to improve the business environment significantly in 2026. The U.S. ferrosilicon case, combined with tariffs and the silicon metal cases, preliminary determinations are encouraging, positioning us well in North America. The EU safeguards are expected to be announced later this month, and we are optimistic they will have a similar impact in Europe. Coreshell is making significant advancements with its silicon anode battery technology and has begun shipments from the pilot battery plant and expects to begin commercial deliveries to robotic and defense-related applications in early 2026. The pilot plant battery production is progressing well with high yields and consistent quality. We continue to focus on cash flow generation and maintaining a solid balance sheet. We expect to deliver meaningful working capital improvements in the fourth quarter as we continue to see benefits from our S&OP process. We signed a very competitive multiyear energy agreement in France, which provides us the flexibility to produce throughout the year. Operator, we are ready for questions.

Operator, Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Nick Giles from B. Riley Securities.

Nick Giles, Analyst

Appreciate the update this morning. The market obviously remains challenging, but it seems like action to-date is offering some support and there could be more coming. Can you just speak to the demand signals you're seeing today and really how you're thinking about 2026 just from a volume perspective across each product category and region? Would be great to get your thoughts.

Marco Levi, CEO

Yes, Nick. Let me start by discussing Europe. I believe that demand in Europe will be enhanced by the protection of supply chains that the EU has implemented. Recently, decisions regarding steel have been made to further safeguard European production, and pending decisions will pertain to our products and aluminum. Therefore, I think the key to generating demand in Europe is linked first to protection and clarity about these issues. We expect, as I mentioned in my speech, that steel demand will continue to rise, which we believe will significantly increase demand for manganese alloys and ferrosilicon. Regarding silicon metal in Europe, a major development is Germany's intention to implement a new energy tariff starting January 1, which is expected to boost the productivity of chemical, steel, and aluminum producers and will contribute to a recovery in silicon metal, along with the other factors I've mentioned. In North America, we are somewhat puzzled by the steel mills' utilization rate, which has only increased by 1%, despite Mr. Trump's protective measures. Statistics suggest that steel demand will grow next year, and we are noticing that our order portfolio for ferrosilicon is becoming much stronger for 2026. We already have evidence of this. Concerning silicon metal, the decisions made thus far should primarily assist in price restoration. The volumes associated with the five countries involved account for less than 10% of actual demand. Another critical factor that will influence the demand for silicon metal in the U.S. will be the government's actions regarding imports of siloxane from China. Overall, Nick, the outlook seems positive, but many decisions could impact demand in the coming year.

Nick Giles, Analyst

I really appreciate all that detail. My next question was just about operations and specifically costs. I think you've been really successful in past years of improving productivity and that flowing to the bottom line. It seems like there were some operational efficiencies targeted already. But I guess my question is, how much more could be made and what would be the impact to EBITDA and cash flow?

Marco Levi, CEO

Yes, since the beginning of the year, we have been prioritizing cash. Last quarter, we initiated a global S&OP process with the goal of improving our working capital by at least $50 million in the first year. By the end of the third quarter, we had already exceeded this target, reaching $55 million. We plan to continue enhancing our operations. Regarding cash, we have reduced our capital expenditures to approximately EUR 60 million this year, down from EUR 80 million to EUR 85 million in previous years, while maintaining our commitment to health, safety, and environmental standards. We are being careful and selective with our capital spending, especially since some of our plants are not currently operational. We have implemented two main initiatives to control costs. First, we instituted a hiring freeze for new positions at the start of the year and are being highly selective in replacing vacant roles, with all new hires requiring my approval. Additionally, we are continuously monitoring discretionary spending, which are our primary focus areas.

Nick Giles, Analyst

Got it. Maybe just one more question. If we look ahead to when market conditions might improve, how are you considering capital allocation? Could we expect to see increased returns for shareholders? You've mentioned growth before, but it seems we've been in a cyclical downturn longer than expected. It would be helpful to get an updated perspective on both of these areas.

Beatriz García-Cos Muntañola, CFO

Nick, this is Beatriz speaking. I think the answer is yes, we're going to be considering share buybacks. I think we have been showing a prudent approach to taking on debt. We reiterate that it's not our intention at the moment to take on debt to do any shareholder buyback. But as we progress in our EBITDA results, as you mentioned, when market conditions are different, of course, we're going to be resuming our share buyback program and always focus on this opportunistic approach. We continue to believe that our share price is undervalued. So of course, we're going to continue with our program at the right time.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Martin Englert from Seaport Research Partners.

Martin Englert, Analyst

I wanted to touch on the weakness in CMS, which was called out in the press release and you discussed a bit on the call. But I'm curious for silicon metal volumes into the chem's market, what did you see across the U.S. and EU kind of year-on-year in 3Q? And what has that been trending like year-to-date?

Marco Levi, CEO

I missed one word of the question. Silicon metal into the chemical sector?

Martin Englert, Analyst

Yes, silicon metal into the chemical sector, what's been going on year-on-year and year-to-date within the U.S. and then the EU.

Marco Levi, CEO

Yes. If you talk about Europe, the key thing is related to the decision of one of the major players to switch from producing their own products starting from silicon metal in Europe to buy siloxane from China. And this is one of the major players. So silicon metal demand has gone down. The other key factor is the impact of the polysilicon industry in Asia and the collapse of the industry there has caused significant losses of volume of the European player who is supplying polysilicon to Asia. And as a consequence, lower volumes are purchased in Europe. The third element, of course, is demand that is not improving. And the fourth element is the massive increase of imports of silicon metal in Europe coming from China and Angola on top of the robust imports from Norway. So this is a quick snapshot of Europe. Talking about the United States, we understand that excluding Dow, most of the other chemical players have suffered in terms of demand. And like I said, massive imports of siloxane from China. When you look at the volumes of silicon metal, you will see a significant increase in imports of silicon metal into the U.S. from Brazil. And based on our understanding, these imports are mainly due to a significant improvement in the productivity of the assets of Dow Chemical. So Dow Chemical has increased the captive use of silicon metal. So these are the main factors in the chemical business that I can report today.

Martin Englert, Analyst

Okay. I appreciate the detailed update there. That's helpful. And I'm sorry, I missed this in the prior remarks, but are you anticipating trade actions within the U.S. and/or EU on siloxane?

Marco Levi, CEO

Well, it's not up to me to decide, but I think there is a pressing platform, both in the U.S. and Europe to consider taking some actions on siloxane. The problem is that as much as I know there are a number of grades of siloxane and this doesn't make the antidumping initiative so easy but I cannot talk more as we are not discussing our products. Overall, for me, if you take the United States, it makes sense to block China on silicon metal, but then if you don't block them on siloxane or silicones, then the overall measure on silicon metal doesn't make much sense.

Martin Englert, Analyst

I appreciate the detail provided. Regarding the EU safeguards, regardless of the outcome, if you believe it’s insufficient to address market dynamics and the loss of market share to imports, I’m interested in knowing what your next steps as a company will be. Additionally, will this be something you can revisit with the European Commission, and what would the timing look like if that’s a possibility?

Marco Levi, CEO

Well, everything can be revisited with the European Commission, but we don't have time for that. We don't have time for that and I'm very confident that some decisions are going to be made by November 18. Now if your question is what if measures are not announced or they are not sufficient, I appreciate your language. The plan is we are ready to announce strong antidumping actions, which in case would be specific on China for silicon metal, on India, on all the manganese product mix and Kazakhstan on ferrosilicon. We have not launched the antidumping cases in Europe because we have been waiting since May this year under the expectations that safeguards were going to be announced in Europe. But our reaction is going to be immediate if we don't see measures announced. And then it depends on what gets announced, and then we will have to consider what to do with our asset footprint, but this is the second step.

Martin Englert, Analyst

In a scenario where the safeguards would not be sufficient over the near term and additional action would be taken to potentially temporarily idle assets. I know there are many for silicon metal that are currently idled. But I guess, cash costs potentially associated with that? And then anything to think about like ongoing recurring just fixed costs that would continue on a quarterly basis?

Marco Levi, CEO

Yes, I previously addressed Nick's question. Currently, our cost-cutting measures include a hiring freeze and reduced discretionary spending. We have also implemented partial unemployment measures in France. As of the end of September, we are not producing silicon metal in France. These are the cost-saving actions we are currently implementing.

Martin Englert, Analyst

Okay. I appreciate all the detail and thought concerning the low volumes of cost performance was actually rather good for the quarter. So congratulations on that front.

Marco Levi, CEO

Thank you.

Beatriz García-Cos Muntañola, CFO

Thank you, Martin.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'll now hand the call back to Marco Levi for closing remarks.

Marco Levi, CEO

Thank you. We are optimistic that 2026 will bring a more robust market environment as the trade measures are implemented and trade uncertainties diminish. Thank you again for your participation. We look forward to updating you on the next call in February. Have a great day.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.