Earnings Call Transcript - GSM Q3 2024

Operator, Operator

Thanks, Marvi. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Ferroglobe's Third Quarter 2024 Conference Call. I want to apologize for the delay. Our operator had technical issues with their phone line so we apologize. Joining me today are Marco Levi, our Chief Executive Officer; and Beatriz Garcia-Cas, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we get started with some prepared remarks, I'm going to read a brief statement. Please turn to Slide 2 at this time. Statements made by management during this conference call that are forward-looking are based on current expectations. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements can be found in Ferroglobe's most recent SEC filings and the exhibit to those filings, which are available on our website at ferroglobe.com. In addition, this discussion includes references to EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted gross debt, adjusted net debt, and adjusted diluted earnings per share, among other non-IFRS measures. Reconciliations of non-IFRS measures may be found in our most recent SEC filings. Marco?

Marco Levi, CEO

Thank you, Alex. Thanks for joining us on the call today. We appreciate your interest in Ferroglobe. Q3 was another solid quarter. We reported adjusted EBITDA of $60 million, up from $58 million in the prior quarter, driven by higher realized pricing, improved spreads in manganese alloys and lower energy costs. On contracted volumes, prices usually lag indexes by two or three months, depending on the product. However, end market demand remains muted and pricing continues to soften, which as discussed last quarter will put pressure on our fourth quarter results. Given our results to date and current outlook, we are reaffirming 2024 guidance of $150 million to $170 million. We expect to benefit from improved ferrosilicon volumes and prices in the US, as a result of the ferrosilicon trade cases we initiated earlier this year. This favorable decision by the US Department of Commerce resulted in duties on all ferrosilicon imports from Russia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Brazil. More specifically, in June, the US imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties of 283% and 748% respectively on all ferrosilicon imports from Russia. For Brazil, Kazakhstan and Malaysia, preliminary anti-dumping duties up to 22%, 6% and 9%, respectively were announced on November 1. These actions will greatly reduce the imports of artificially low price ferrosilicon and level the playing field benefiting local producers such as Ferroglobe. As a result of these new policies, we expect to see an improvement in the U.S. FeSi market in early 2025, as inventory in the channel is cleared and new orders are placed. Our flexible footprint provides resilience enabling us to manage with the short-term environment effectively and adjust production to match current demand. Part of this adjustment includes curtailing production in France approximately one month early to maximize the rebate from our French energy agreement. As part of our continued effort to improve the company's performance, we recently started implementing a new sales and operations planning process, which focuses on demand planning, optimizing raw material purchases, production, logistics and sales. This will allow us to operate Ferroglobe in a more integrated way, with lower cost and lower working capital, enhancing our financial performance and cash flow. We continue to move forward with our long-term brownfield expansion plans to increase our silicon metal capacity in the U.S. to capture the higher demand that we expect to materialize from solar and EV batteries in the coming years. This demand is forecasted by CRU to grow by nearly 140,000 tons to 365,000 tons by 2029. In addition to increased capacity, the state-of-the-art furnace is expected to be the most efficient and cost competitive in North America. The furnace will incorporate Ferroglobe's technological know-how and expertise accumulated over the decades, as the leading silicon metal producer in the West. We are currently on track to file a permit application in the next few months. As a reminder, the approval process takes approximately 18 months with construction taking an additional 24 months. We anticipate end markets improving in the second half of 2025, except the U.S. FeSi market which is expected to improve starting in the first half, as a result of the mentioned trade case. According to the World Steel Organization, the global steel demand in 2025 is forecast to rebound by more than 3% excluding China. The aluminum market is also expected to see better conditions in the second half, as interest rates continue to decline and the auto and construction industry should begin to grow. A Bloomberg analyst forecasts a 3.3% increase in the global aluminum demand in 2025. We're also excited to report that we agreed to supply silicon metal to a new large customer in the Middle East for their renewable energy initiative, highlighting our strong market position and success in expanding our solar supply chain presence. This is a significant opportunity for us to accelerate growth going forward. In September, we paid our quarterly dividend of $0.013 per share, in the third quarter. And we also executed a small portion of our stock buyback program and established a share repurchase plan. Our soon-to-be issued third ESG report highlights our commitment and progress on multiple fronts. We commit to a decarbonization plan to reduce our combined Scope 1 and Scope 2 carbon emissions by at least 26%, by 2030, compared with the 2020 baseline. Also, we have shifted to clean cost-effective bio-carbon at our Sabón silicon plant to help achieve those carbon reduction goals. The new bio-carbon production plant is expected to be operational by 2026 and funded with substantial assistance from the Spanish government. In addition, we have made significant progress in silicon metal traceability, encompassing the entire value chain from raw material to final products. Our third quarter revenue came in slightly lower than the second quarter, due to lower volumes in all three segments. Despite the soft demand, we performed well, improving our adjusted EBITDA to $60 million. Operating cash flow in the third quarter was $11 million, an improvement of $9 million over the prior quarter. Free cash flow was negative $10 million, an improvement of $10 million over the prior quarter. My CFO Beatriz Garcia-Cos will cover these numbers in more detail later. Our third quarter revenue came in slightly lower than the second quarter, due to lower volumes in all three segments. Despite the soft demand, we performed well, improving our adjusted EBITDA to $60 million. Operating cash flow in the third quarter was $11 million, an improvement of $9 million over the prior quarter. Free cash flow was negative $10 million, an improvement of $10 million over the prior quarter.

Beatriz Garcia-Cos, CFO

Thank you, Marco. Before I go through our third quarter results, I will provide an update on the share repurchase program. During the quarter, we purchased approximately 117,000 shares at an average price of $4.22. The modest approach with our buyback program is a result of the current uncertainty in our end markets. As we begin to see signs of improvement and better visibility, we plan to become more proactive. Our first priority is ensuring that we maintain a strong balance sheet to make sure that Ferroglobe is well-positioned to withstand the downcycle that we are currently experiencing and also have the ability to invest in growth markets such as solar and electric vehicles, as these opportunities materialize. In addition to our discretionary buyback program, we set up a program allowing purchases during a closed window, if certain criteria are met. As a reminder, we need $120 million to $150 million of cash to operate our day-to-day business. In 2025, our €35 million SEPI loan in Spain is due in two payments, with the first half due in Q1 and the remainder in Q2. Sales decreased 4% in the third quarter to $434 million. During Q3, we saw lower volumes across all three segments, with stronger silicon metal and manganese alloys prices partially offsetting weak demand. Raw materials and energy consumption for production remained flat, with Q2 at 59% of sales primarily driven by higher energy compensation in France. Staff costs increased by $5 million in the third quarter to $72 million primarily due to profit-sharing arrangements in Europe. Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $60 million versus $58 million in the prior quarter. During the quarter, we earned approximately $20 million from our 2024 French energy agreement, which increased our EBITDA by the same amount. Due to the early idling of our French operations, we now expect to benefit from the energy agreement by approximately $60 million for the year compared to our prior estimate of approximately $40 million. Our adjusted EBITDA was $60 million in the third quarter, up 5% from Q2 driven primarily by stronger realized prices. Silicon metal prices increased 5% from the prior quarter and manganese alloys were up 16% while silicon alloys were flat. Stronger third quarter sales prices benefited from higher index prices in the second quarter due to a two to three-month lag between indexes and realized prices. Volume negatively impacted our adjusted EBITDA by $8 million driven by soft demand across our three segments with volumes declining by 10%, 3%, and 21% in silicon metal, silicon-based alloys, and manganese alloys, respectively. Head office and non-core business negatively impacted adjusted EBITDA by $5 million, as a result of lower volumes at our mining operations. During the third quarter, our free cash flow was negative $10 million impacted by the use of cash by working capital of $21 million. This was partially offset by an $11 million partial collection of the French Energy rebate. We expect to collect another $20 million in the fourth quarter and the remaining $30 million in early 2025. CapEx outflows in the third quarter were $21 million versus $22 million in the prior quarter. We paid $2.4 million or a $0.013 per share dividend on September 27 and are scheduled to pay our fourth quarter dividend of $0.013 per share on December 27. We ended the third quarter with a cash balance of $121 million, down from $145 million at the end of the second quarter. Our positive net cash position declined from $64 million to $32 million in the third quarter, while our adjusted gross debt remained moderate ending at $89 million as of September 30.

Marco Levi, CEO

Okay. Thank you, Beatriz. Moving to the key takeaways. We had another strong quarter with an adjusted EBITDA of $60 million, as our realized manganese alloy and silicon metal prices improved over the second quarter. The favorable US ferrosilicon anti-dumping decision is final regarding Russia and preliminary for Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia. We expect the successful trade action to provide Ferroglobe with a strong tailwind in the US in 2025 and beyond. We are managing our production to match the current demand and are proactively controlling expenditures. As a result of lower interest rates and positive forecasts for steel and aluminum, we anticipate better market conditions in the second half of 2025. We continue executing our capital return policy for ongoing dividends and share repurchases. Operator, thank you. We are ready for questions.

Lucas Pipes, Analyst

Thank you very much, operator. Good day, everyone. Marco my first question is on the US expansion that you had mentioned in the prepared remarks. Could you provide a bit more color as to the cost the capacity? I think you mentioned the timeline in regards to permitting but if you could reiterate some of those comments that would be helpful. Thank you very much.

Marco Levi, CEO

Yes Lucas, thanks for the question. We confirm that our expansion will take place brownfield as we firmly believe that the expansion brownfield is going to be definitely very, very competitive. Our estimate is that the CapEx required is between 30% and 50% lower than a greenfield. We are excited about it because we have technology available that allows us to believe that our investment is going to be extremely cost competitive due to the size of the furnace or the furnaces that we're going to put at our location. We have not decided yet about the location. But we are, as we apply, we are applying for permits at least at two of our locations in the US and we are in the middle of the work to apply for the permit. All this work on average lasts about 18 months. And then it takes us about two years to build the brownfield capacity based on our requirements. We have not decided yet either about the location or the capacity addition that we are going to put in place. But the expectation is that we are going to start up new capacity latest at the beginning of 2028.

Lucas Pipes, Analyst

That is very helpful. And Marco just to go back on the capacity figure for this. Any ballpark that you could point to as kind of a guide would be helpful to get a bit better understanding.

Marco Levi, CEO

Yes. I mean what we have in mind is a minimum of 60,000 tons, but it could be bigger depending on the technology that we choose.

Lucas Pipes, Analyst

And in terms of the capital cost per ton of capacity, is there a rule of thumb to think of for this specific development?

Marco Levi, CEO

I can give you a market indication of $200 million.

Lucas Pipes, Analyst

Okay. Thank you for this. Turning a little bit more to the near-term outlook. Some movement on working capital expected in Q4 if I heard it right. But I wondered if you could maybe just put everything together for Q4 between kind of market conditions pricing working capital where would you expect to end the year from a free cash flow perspective? Thank you very much.

Marco Levi, CEO

Yes. Beatriz will answer this question.

Beatriz Garcia-Cos, CFO

Hi, Lucas. Thank you for the question. I think on Q2 we already announced a release of working capital. We confirm the release of the working capital in Q4. The size of this release could be I'm talking overall working capital around $15 million. This is what we expect at the moment.

Lucas Pipes, Analyst

Okay. And the operational market outlook for Q4 how would that factor into expectations?

Beatriz Garcia-Cos, CFO

Yes. So as you know we are idling our plants in France for Q4, right? So we have been building in working capital in Q2 and in Q3, right? Sorry, in Q3. And we're going to be releasing it in Q4 2024 as we need to sell from our inventories, right? And of course, this has the benefit of that is the benefit of the energy where we were expecting initially to get $40 million. You remember at the beginning of the year this is what we said. Now we are seeing that as a result of this early idling of our plants in France we're going to be going up to $60 million for the year.

Lucas Pipes, Analyst

Okay. Marco, Beatriz thank you so much for all the color. To you and the team continued best of luck.

Marco Levi, CEO

Thank you.

Martin Englert, Analyst

Well, good day, everyone.

Marco Levi, CEO

Hello, Martin.

Martin Englert, Analyst

Within the silicon-based alloy segment there was slight movement in volumes so they were essentially flat quarter-on-quarter, year-on-year but the fixed cost absorption was cited as an issue. Margins were fairly compressed. Can you provide more detail on that? Is there some dynamic with differing volumes and fixed cost trends across your regional footprint that prompted this? Or was there something else behind it?

Marco Levi, CEO

I can begin to address this question, and then Beatriz can add her comments. In Europe, the market for the bulk of ferrosilicon used in steel is characterized by flat demand at low levels. When it comes to Europe, the further price decline is driven by increased imports from not just Kazakhstan, which I have mentioned before, but also from countries like Egypt and Iran. The significant imports of ferrosilicon standards in Europe, coupled with weak demand, contribute to price erosion. In fact, I noted in my remarks that the price in this quarter has already fallen to its lowest point in the past four years, indicating substantial margin compression. In the US, the dynamics are different. The steel market is somewhat flat, but there are still inventories of important materials, including from Russia, that hinder price recovery and our sales growth. Given these conditions in both the US and Europe, we have reduced our production, leading to an increase in our cost absorption. Beatriz, do you have anything else to add?

Beatriz Garcia-Cos, CFO

No, I would only add that, as I mentioned to Lucas, the year-end benefit has positively impacted the silicon and manganese business. However, it hasn't had much effect on the silicon-based alloys business because we only have a small plant in France that produces the ferrosilicon products and part in Laudun. Consequently, the positive impact of energy has not affected costs in the same way as in the other two businesses, leading to a lack of fixed cost absorption.

Marco Levi, CEO

And margin compression like you're saying.

Martin Englert, Analyst

Can you provide more details on the volumes, which appear to be mostly stable? It seems that demand in both the EU and U.S. is also relatively stable, but you've mentioned that production is lower. For ferrosilicon, can you share what the quarter-on-quarter change in production was within the U.S. or North American area compared to the European area?

Marco Levi, CEO

For these details Martin we need to go back to our numbers and give you the right production rate. I don't have them with me now.

Martin Englert, Analyst

Okay. That's fine. We can circle back on it. I do appreciate the color. Pivoting to the US ferrosilicon import tariffs that we have seen do you feel that the tariff levels are sufficient to properly protect the US market? And are they kind of aligned with where you expected they might shake out? And then in addition to that, if you can just play out your expectations for how this is going to impact the market from a price and volume perspective if we look forward into the first half of 2025?

Marco Levi, CEO

Well, we need to separate the topic here, because if we talk about imports from Russia everything has been already decided and the total fees are far beyond our expectations, right? So a 1000% fee was totally unexpected, but this is real. And if you look at the volumes in 2023 sold by Russia to the US are about looking at imports 70,000 tons so about 30%, 35% of the consumption of the steel industry in the US. So this is a fact, it is there and these volumes will have to be supplied by somebody else local producers and other producers. When we talk about Kazakhstan, Malaysia, and Brazil, there are some predetermined conclusions but they are not final. So I am not like the famous blogger in the US who pretends to know the decisions of the authorities. I wait for the authorities to tell us what are the final decisions about the injuries of Kazakhstan, Malaysia and Brazil. What I can tell you is that, these three countries in 2023 accounted for another 70,000 tons of ferrosilicon supplied to the US. And for sure, there will be measures taken towards these three countries. We have to understand the size and still understand the impact. Another information I can confirm that we have acquired two new contracts on ferrosilicon standard in the US for 2025 contracts which are significant. But I assume that also the purchasers are waiting for the confirmation of the duties on these three countries to make their decisions on 2025.

Martin Englert, Analyst

For the two new contracts maybe combined, is there a range of volume that you would anticipate annually gaining from these?

Marco Levi, CEO

Well, like I said, I don't want to refer to specific contracts. Like I said, there are significant volumes. We are talking about thousands of tons. But lacking the final decision of the authorities which is due in November, the customers are waiting for finalizing the negotiations for 2025. So I don't have a defined growth number for our sales of ferrosilicon in 2025 yet.

Martin Englert, Analyst

Okay. Understood. Given your comment just a few seconds ago about not wanting to provide the detail which I understand on the contracts, but can you provide anything else you noted with a Middle Eastern new silicon contract? Is that correct?

Marco Levi, CEO

Yes. This is related to silicon metal and the startup of a large polysilicon production unit in the Middle East. We are being invited to the table and we have got part of the business. And this goes to the fact that our volumes of silicon metal are completely traceable and this has been given us the opportunity to win some additional new business in the Middle East totally related to solar.

Martin Englert, Analyst

For the Middle Eastern project, can you remind me of the polysilicon capacity at that plant?

Marco Levi, CEO

100,000 tons as far as I know, which will ramp up during 2025.

Martin Englert, Analyst

Okay. Excellent. I appreciate all the detail. Thank you very much and good luck.

Marco Levi, CEO

Thank you.

Operator, Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the conference back over to Marco Levi for closing remarks.

Marco Levi, CEO

Thank you, Marvi and thank you for pronouncing my last name correctly. I appreciated. Combined with the benefit of FeSi import duties into the US, we expect better overall market conditions to materialize in the second half of 2025 as the full effect of interest rate cuts and destocking begin stimulating demand next year. Thank you again for your participation. We look forward to hearing from you on the next call. Have a great day.