Earnings Call Transcript
HELEN OF TROY LTD (HELE)
Earnings Call Transcript - HELE Q4 2022
Operator, Operator
Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone and welcome to Helen of Troy Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022, Earnings Conference Call. The agenda for the call this morning is as follows. I will begin with a brief discussion of forward-looking statements. Mr. Julien Mininberg, the company's CEO, will comment on the business performance and key accomplishments, and then provide some perspective as we begin the new fiscal year. Then Mr. Matt Osberg, the company's CFO, will review the financials in more detail and comment about current trends, and expectations for the upcoming fiscal year. Following this, we will take questions you have for us today. This conference call may contain certain forward-looking statements that are based on management's current expectation, with respect to future events or financial performance. Generally, the world anticipates, believes, expects, and other words similar are words identifying forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause anticipated results, to differ materially from the actual results. This conference call may also include information that may be considered non-GAAP financial information. These non-GAAP measures are not an alternative to GAAP financial information and may be calculated differently than the non-GAAP financial information disclosed by other parties. The company cautions listeners not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements or non-GAAP information. Before I turn the call over to Mr. Mininberg, I would like to inform all interested parties that a copy of today's earnings release has been posted to the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.helendoftroy.com. That earnings release contains tables that reconcile non-GAAP financial measures to their corresponding GAAP-based measures. The release can be obtained by selecting the "investor relations" tab on the company's homepage, and then the "press releases" tab. I will now turn the conference call over to Mr. Mininberg.
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Thank you, Jack. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We are excited to discuss our recent acquisition of Curlsmith and our fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal '22 results. On this call, we will also share our outlook for fiscal '23 and give an overview of the investments we're making to drive our transformation in the latter half of Phase 2 and beyond. As we have now completed our third year of Phase 2, we will update you on the significant progress we have made on the goals we set during our May 2019 Investor Day. I’m pleased to say we are ahead in almost every area. Let me start by providing more details on the Curlsmith acquisition. We view it as an excellent strategic fit for our prestige beauty portfolio that provides immediate value creation and strong growth potential. Our M&A strategy focuses on adding leadership brands and emerging players where we can add value and leverage our scalable operating platform. In this case, we are adding a fast-growing, innovative brand that complements our portfolio of leading brands. With about 60% of U.S. consumers having hair with different degrees of waves and curls, prestige texture hair products are growing significantly faster than both non-textured hair products and mass-market textured hair products. Curlsmith's business has more than doubled in size over the last two years, and we expect it to continue growing at a double-digit rate. Curlsmith products simplify the care of textured hair for consumers, earning top net promoter scores, impressive repeat purchase loyalty, and strong reviews. This acquisition also enhances our presence in prestige with a brand that complements our successful Drybar acquisition. We anticipate it to become our most profitable brand right away and further enhance our beauty mix. In line with our 'Better together' approach to acquisitions, we expect to add considerable additional value to Curlsmith by utilizing our larger beauty sales force both in brick-and-mortar and online, expanding direct-to-consumer capabilities, leveraging our marketing, appliance expertise, and utilizing our international go-to-market strategy along with our robust shared services platform that encompasses global sourcing, distribution, IT, and back-office capabilities that extend well beyond what Curlsmith currently has. Our acquisition and divestiture activities thus far in Phase 2 have greatly improved our beauty portfolio. With the acquisitions of Curlsmith and Drybar, the Revlon license buyout, and the divestiture of mass-market personal care liquids, all of our last five major transactions have been in beauty. These strategic moves, combined with organic growth and efficiency projects in beauty, have made it our highest margin segment. Our portfolio now features a diverse range of successful appliance brands including Revlon, Bed Head, Hot Tools, and Drybar, alongside a growing presence in prestige consumables with Drybar and Curlsmith. Moving to the fourth quarter, we are pleased to report excellent results, including double-digit growth in consolidated revenue and earnings per share. All three business segments performed significantly better than expected on both the top and bottom lines. Since COVID has greatly impacted the comparisons over the past two years, it’s helpful to look at two-year comparisons, which are included in today’s press release. For the quarter, we grew core net sales by 37% and core adjusted diluted EPS by 45%. You may have noticed in today’s earnings release that we have renamed two of our business segments to represent the significant changes in our portfolio over the years. OXO is now joined by two iconic outdoor brands, Hydro Flask and Osprey, prompting us to rename our houseware segment to Home and Outdoor. Our Health and Home segment is now Health and Wellness, where the health part of the name reflects the functional benefits of helping consumers monitor their physical condition and provide relief when family members are unwell, while the wellness aspect emphasizes the emotional benefits of providing peace of mind and well-being. Specifically looking at segment performance, home and outdoor sales saw significant growth in the fourth quarter, aided by contributions from Osprey, following double-digit growth in the previous period. The growth was primarily led by Hydro Flask, which continued to gain market share. In beauty, demand was particularly strong for volumizers and waivers, and we continued to increase our share in this segment. Beauty also performed well internationally, achieving double-digit growth, especially in EMEA and Latin America. This reinforces our strategic focus on appliances and premium beauty products in Latin America. Fiscal '22 marks two years of Drybar under our ownership, and it has outperformed our acquisition expectations despite pandemic challenges. In health and wellness, this segment greatly exceeded our expectations, driven by higher-than-expected sales of thermometers and humidifiers linked to a late-season Omicron surge that produced cough and flu-like symptoms. While the cold and flu season has remained below historical averages, the demand for health-related products was stimulated by Omicron. The quarter also benefited from increased sales of seasonal products such as fans. Reviewing the full fiscal year results, we are proud to continue delivering growth over the elevated base set last year, despite numerous challenges from supply chain disruptions, inflation, and the EPA situation. Fiscal '22 marks another record year for revenues and adjusted earnings per share, alongside further adjusted operating margin expansion. Growth rates exceeding the elevated base were ahead of our Phase 2 targets. Our business model demonstrates the strength of our diverse portfolio of leadership brands, investment in our value-creation framework, and excellent execution of our transformation strategy, supported by a high-performance organization that fosters a successful culture. Fiscal '22 also showed our effective playbook helped to mitigate supply chain disruptions and inflation. Reflecting on our achievements so far in Phase 2, we take pride that our results have contributed to total shareholder returns significantly surpassing our proxy peer group since the onset of Phase 2, and throughout Phase 1. Though we are just three years into Phase 2, we have seen considerable growth, with core net sales growth of 50% and core adjusted diluted EPS growth of 68%, marking an acceleration in compound annual growth rates compared to Phase 1. We are also on track with our adjusted operating margins, achieving expansion well beyond our targets, primarily through flywheel investments, cost reduction initiatives, and new products that have enhanced our mix. At the outset of Phase 2, we aimed for an average annual increase of at least 10% in growth investments for our leadership brands, focusing on consumer-centric product innovation and marketing support. The return on investment from these initiatives has increased our margins, alongside the advantages of our flywheel investments in international markets and shared services. Our decision to intensify our focus on international markets has yielded results that exceed expectations, affirming our 2019 Investor Day goal of generating over $100 million in organic growth outside the United States by the end of fiscal 2024, which we accomplished two years ahead of schedule. We are now raising our goal to target an additional $130 million in revenue growth outside the United States over the remaining two years of Phase 2. This will involve further organic growth in EMEA and Asia Pacific while also introducing two new important international growth drivers, both projected to achieve double-digit growth in the latter half of Phase 2. The first is Latin America, which has experienced rapid growth during Phase 2, and the second is Osprey, which has 50% of its business internationally. Another notable outcome from our commitment to international markets is the significant improvements in margins during Phase II. International margins have seen marked increases over the past three years, with EMEA and Latin America becoming investment-grade, and are further focal points for the second half of Phase II. Return on invested capital is another critical aspect of our Phase II plan. Careful capital stewardship and allocation have been central to our transformation from the outset. Our capital allocation strategy prioritizes investing in our business, making strategic and accretive acquisitions, and share repurchases. We have allocated approximately $1.3 billion of capital in the first three years of Phase II, including investments in our new distribution center, acquisitions of Drybar, Osprey, and Curlsmith; the Revlon 100-year license buyout, and share repurchases. This is around the same amount as what was committed over five years in Phase I. Like most capital allocations that require time for returns, these new investments will take time to yield results, not just in terms of return on invested capital but also in creating an even more robust enterprise that will be the foundation for future growth beyond Phase II. Looking ahead to fiscal '23, the outlook we are introducing today anticipates another year of solid growth in both revenue and profitability. Our acquisitions of Osprey and Curlsmith are expected to bolster revenue and margin growth. We anticipate that our incremental revenues will provide operating leverage and further utilize our shared services, contributing to the growth of our flywheel, not just in fiscal '23 but in the years following as well. Similar to our earlier experiences with Hydro Flask and Drybar, we are aware of the ongoing concerns regarding supply chain disruptions, rising interest rates, and inflation, which are squeezing input costs and impacting consumer purchasing power. We are already observing some consumption weaknesses in certain categories during March and April. It's essential to point out that our outlook reflects our assessment of the impact these challenges may pose. We are reapplying our established playbook, expecting to mitigate more than $3 a share from inflation and supply chain disruptions. We have completed contracts for all our expected shipping needs for the year, which secures sea freight for the entire fiscal year at significant discounts compared to current spot market rates, giving us excellent visibility on costs. We have also implemented several price increases to help counter margin pressure from rising costs. We also foresee growth from Drybar and Hydro Flask enhancing our organic mix. Concerning the EPA situation, the recent EPA concerns pertain to the packaging and labels of certain additional humidifiers and air products that have been on the market for years. We are actively engaging with the EPA to resolve the issue promptly, and our current estimate of potential impacts from this matter is included in our outlook. Regarding expenditures for fiscal '23, we are committed to executing our transformation strategy, which we believe is the best way to deliver long-term value for shareholders. Our fiscal '23 outlook includes considered investments in critical opportunities for our brands and key shared service initiatives aimed at enhancing efficiency, capabilities, and scalability for the latter half of fiscal '23 and beyond. We are also continuing to invest in consumer-centric innovation, which has been vital for our leadership brands throughout our transformation. We see additional potential in EMEA and Asia-Pacific and are increasingly concentrating on Latin America, particularly in beauty appliances. Our major fiscal '23 investments in shared services primarily relate to operational, IT improvements, and the execution of over $10 million in multiyear cost savings initiatives currently underway in each business unit. We aim to diversify the geographic footprint of our global sourcing across China, Southeast Asia, and Mexico, and develop dual sourcing to improve cost efficiency and supply assurance. This strategic move will help create new efficiencies and lower risks, including reducing lead times, decreasing inventory, lowering shipping costs, and minimizing exposure to global political issues and tariffs. On the distribution side, the new Tennessee distribution center will significantly increase our capacity, allowing us to handle the growth of our business from the past five years and the new growth we are planning efficiently. Construction is progressing on schedule and within budget, and we expect to open by the end of fiscal 2023. In terms of IT, our outlook includes strategic investments in system upgrades, such as enhanced applications for demand planning and warehouse management, along with new direct-to-consumer capabilities to better respond to the rising demand for online shopping and improving service expectations. We believe we are making the right decisions regarding spending and have been prudent in this cost environment, focusing on initiatives we expect to be most impactful. Our history of delivering on annual guidance has been consistent throughout our transformation, as shown again today in our fiscal 2022 results. This consistency is driven by our commitment to executing our strategic plan, our adaptability in challenging conditions, and our culture that encourages the best from our team. Looking further ahead, we reaffirm our commitment to our long-term growth targets for fiscal '24. Overall, we expect Phase 2 will yield five years of organic growth that surpasses the average targets we set initially. Although we have two years remaining in Phase 2 and are dedicated to executing excellence in all areas previously mentioned, we are beginning to plan for Phase 3 throughout this fiscal year. I will be collaborating with our global leadership team and our board on the strategic planning for Phase 3. As discussed in our earlier investments related to infrastructure, we are building out our platform to support the next generation of profitable organic and inorganic growth. We look forward to sharing our Phase 3 strategic choices and plans with you in fiscal '24. Regarding executive leadership updates, I am pleased to announce that we have finalized our search for a Chief Operating Officer. This role will enhance our focus on sustaining growth and effectively executing major strategic initiatives for the latter half of Phase 2 and beyond. Noel Geoffroy will join Helen of Troy as the Chief Operating Officer on May 9th, 2022, where he will oversee day-to-day business operations and the execution of major projects in preparation for Phase 3. He brings over 25 years of experience in leadership and management roles at top companies, including Sanofi and Consumer Healthcare, Kellogg, H.J. Heinz, and Procter and Gamble. Noel is known for being a consumer-focused leader, a passionate brand builder, an innovator, and an inspirational leader in both organizational and cultural aspects. He will report directly to me and be a part of our global leadership team. Additionally, I am very pleased to announce new leadership in health and wellness. Our COO Dray, who was President of our health and wellness segment, retired at the end of February. It is an honor to see long-serving leaders like Christophe conclude distinguished careers spanning over 35 years in the consumer products field. Mauricio Trancoso is now our new President of Health & Wellness. He brings 30 years of experience both domestically and internationally, having progressed through roles at Kimberly-Clark, Ontex, Mead Johnson Nutrition, and Procter and Gamble. Mauricio has led diverse consumer goods businesses, transformations, operational efficiency initiatives, and acquisition integrations. Before I wrap up, I would like to touch on the progress we have made in areas of ESG, diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging. Regarding ESG, we have recently increased our commitment to minimizing environmental impact by confirming our plastic packaging targets as part of our participation in the New Plastics Economy initiative. This global commitment involves businesses and governments working towards changing how we produce, use, and recycle plastics to establish a circular economy. We look forward to sharing more details about our corporate and brand-specific ESG initiatives in our upcoming second annual ESG report, expected to be released in June. On the topic of diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging, our transformation efforts aim to attract, retain, unify, include, and develop the best talent available. DEI continues to be a priority for Helen of Troy, and we are making significant strides. This includes increasing diversity in thought, experience, gender, and ethnic backgrounds. With Noel joining next month, women will comprise half of our named executive officers, and our global leadership team will feature half women or ethnically diverse members. Diversity in hiring at the senior management level is also on the rise, reflecting a growing number of diverse candidates in our recruitment pools. Our plans for the latter half of Phase 2 focus on enhancing our DEI and ESG initiatives. With that, I’ll hand the call over to our CFO, Matt Osberg.
Matt Osberg, CFO
Thank you, Julien. Good morning, everyone. Our fourth-quarter results represent a very strong finish to the year and deliver full fiscal year core business net sales and adjusted diluted EPS growth ahead of our long-term Phase 2 targets. I'm very proud of how our entire organization again delivered strong results in what proved to be a very challenging year as we navigated the unpredictable path of COVID-19, inflationary cost headwinds, continued supply chain disruption, and the EPA matter. A couple of points before I move onto my discussion of our fourth quarter and full-year results. First, I'll be speaking primarily to consolidated results, as well as core business results. Core business results exclude the entire personal care business in all periods and provide the best comparability between historical and future periods. Second, our results include $24.4 million in sales and $0.06 in adjusted diluted EPS from Osprey, which we acquired in December 2021. Now moving on to results for the fourth quarter. Core business net sales increased 17.2%, reflecting growth in brick-and-mortar and online channels in our home and outdoor and beauty segment. We benefited from strong consumer demand, higher sales in the club and closeout channels, the impact of customer price increases, and growth in international sales. Results also reflect approximately $20 million in sales that were pulled forward into the fourth quarter from the first quarter of fiscal '23 as retailers accelerated orders to improve their inventory levels and in anticipation of price increases. We also had a comparative benefit due to last year's Winter Storm Uri, with delayed approximately $15 million in orders that were not able to be shipped in the fourth quarter of fiscal '21. DAP consolidated operating income was $50.4 million or 8.7% of net sales. On an adjusted basis, operating margin increased 4.1 percentage points to 12.5% primarily due to a decrease in marketing expense. Net income was $39.8 million or $1.64 per diluted share. Non-GAAP core adjusted diluted EPS increased 76.8% to $2.51, primarily due to higher adjusted operating income in the home and outdoor and health and wellness segments, and lower weighted average diluted shares outstanding. Net cash provided by operating activities for the fourth quarter of fiscal '22 was $145.9 million, reflecting higher EBITDA, strong collection of accounts receivable, and a sequential reduction in inventory levels from the third quarter, despite the incremental inventory added as part of the Osprey acquisition. Looking at our results on a full-year basis, we were able to grow our core business at rates in excess of our long-term Phase 2 targets over the high base of fiscal '21. In fiscal '22, core net sales grew 8.4%, including the unfavorable impact of approximately $60 million related to the EPA matter. This growth is on top of 25.1% growth in fiscal '21. We also grew core adjusted diluted EPS by 10.4% on top of the 26.5% growth in fiscal '21. EPS growth in fiscal '22 includes the unfavorable impact of approximately $0.30 per share due to lost sales volume related to the EPA matter, as well as approximately $2.25 per share of incremental inflationary costs. We also expanded our core adjusted operating margin by approximately 30 basis points despite the EPA matter and inflationary cost headwinds. Finally, we deployed over $630 million in capital towards the Osprey acquisition, share repurchases, and investments in our new distribution center. Our fiscal '22 results illustrate the power of our value creation flywheel and our ability to continue executing our strategy even in the face of significant headwinds. Although we deployed significant amounts of capital in fiscal '22, our net leverage ratio as defined in our debt agreements was 2.0 times at the end of the fourth quarter. Now turning to our full year outlook for fiscal '23, since we have now completed the sale of all our mass market personal care business, we are not expecting any material activity related to non-core business in fiscal '23. Therefore, the fiscal '23 amounts we are providing in our outlook are on a consolidated basis, which includes Osprey and Curlsmith. However, due to the fact that the fiscal '22 results include material activity related to non-core business, the year-over-year growth rates on a consolidated and core business basis will be different. The tables provided in today's release compare our outlook to the prior year on both a consolidated and core basis. We believe that core business growth is the most relevant basis as it provides the best comparability between historical and future periods. For fiscal '23, we expect consolidated net sales revenue in the range of $2.38 billion to $2.42 billion, which implies consolidated growth of 6.8% to 8.8% and core growth of 8.5% to 10.5%. Our net sales outlook reflects the following expectations by segment. Home and outdoor net sales growth of 19% to 21%, including net sales from Osprey of $180 million to $185 million. Health & Wellness net sales decline of 1% to growth of 1%. And Beauty core business net sales growth of 4.5% to 7.5%, including net sales from Curlsmith of $30 million to $35 million for the pro-rata period of fiscal 2023. We expect consolidated GAAP diluted EPS of $9.92 to $10.38 and consolidated non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $12.73 to $13.03, which implies consolidated growth of 3% to 5.4% and core growth of 4.5% to 7%. This includes an adjusted diluted EPS contribution from Osprey of approximately $0.50 to $0.55 and a pro rata fiscal 2023 contribution from Curlsmith of approximately $0.20 to $0.25. The EPS contribution from both acquisitions includes the impact of interest expense that reflects our current expectation of 225 basis points of interest rate increases in calendar year '22. Our fiscal '23 outlook includes the unfavorable category in consumption trends we are seeing in March and April, some caution relating to medium-term uncertainty of consumer behavior in an inflationary environment, our best estimate of incremental inflationary input costs, and the impact of forecasted higher interest rates. While sales and operating results were unfavorably impacted in fiscal '22 by the EPA matter, we expect a favorable effect from the recovery of a portion of that impact in fiscal '23. Additionally, as a result of continuing dialogue with the EPA, we are executing further repackaging and relabeling plans on certain additional humidifier and air filtration products. We currently expect this to limit our ability to ship to demand for the newly effective products and result in an unfavorable impact on net sales and EPS in fiscal '23. We estimate that the net result of the EPA matter on fiscal '23 will be a favorable impact on net sales of approximately $10 million and adjusted diluted EPS of approximately $0.10, which is included in our outlook. On March 30th, 2022, a third-party facility that we utilize for inventory storage incurred severe damage from a weather-related incident. The inventory stored at this facility primarily relates to our health & wellness and beauty segment. While the inventory is insured, some seasonal inventory and inventory designated for specific customer promotions is currently not accessible. As a result, we expect not to be able to ship certain products on a timely basis and have included an unfavorable impact on net sales of approximately $10 million and adjusted diluted EPS of approximately $0.10. We are working with local officials and our insurance provider to understand the extent of the damage. However, the building must be assessed and made structurally sound before we will have access to the inventory and will be able to fully assess damages and the related financial impacts. In fiscal '23, we believe we can expand gross profit margin as well as grow our adjusted operating margin by 10 to 20 basis points despite the headwind of approximately 100 basis points from the net diluted effect of price increases to offset the majority of the dollar growth profit impact of higher product and freight costs. Our outlook includes an estimated after-tax impact of incremental inflationary costs of approximately $75 million to $80 million or approximately $3.10 to $3.30 of adjusted diluted EPS. Using our proven playbook, we believe we can mitigate the majority of these costs through a combination of improved mix, price increases, locking in shipping contracts at rates below current market prices, and continuing to implement other cost reduction initiatives across our supplier base. We are also pleased to be able to expand operating margin as we continue to make further growth investments to transform our business and support the rapid growth we have experienced since we began Phase 2. Due to expected higher levels of average debt from the Osprey and Curlsmith acquisitions, and capital investments in our new distribution center, as well as higher expected interest rates in fiscal '23, we expect interest expense in the range of $35 million to $36 million. We expect a fiscal '23 GAAP effective tax rate of 13% to 14% and an adjusted effective tax rate of 11.7% to 12.7%. We do not expect a meaningful impact in fiscal '23 from currently proposed tax legislation changes. At this stage, it is still unclear what domestic and global tax laws will be passed, in what form and timing. We will continue to assess the impact as proposed legislation is considered and keep you updated. Capital asset expenditures are expected to be in the range of $180 million to $205 million for fiscal '23, which includes expected expenditures related to our new distribution facility in the range of $145 million to $170 million, as well as further investments in IT systems for other key Phase 2 projects. We continue to expect the total cost of the new distribution center and equipment to be in the range of $200 million to $225 million spread over fiscal years '22 and '23. With respect to cash flow and liquidity, typically the majority of our operating cash flow is generated in the second half of our fiscal year. This coupled with a higher concentration of capital expenditure in the first half of our fiscal year is expected to lead to higher average debt balances and increasing net leverage ratios during the first half of our fiscal year. We expect debt levels and net leverage ratios to improve sequentially in the second half of our fiscal year to levels in line with where we finished fiscal '22. We expect to end fiscal '23 with inventory levels approximately flat to fiscal '22 as increases in inventory for Osprey and Curlsmith, as well as higher product and freight costs are planned to be offset by inventory efficiency. In terms of the quarterly cadence of sales and EPS, we expect the majority of our net sales and adjusted diluted EPS growth to be concentrated in the second and third quarters of fiscal '23. This is primarily due to the strong net sales and adjusted diluted EPS growth comparison in the first and fourth quarters of fiscal '22, the adverse net sales and earnings impact of the EPA matter in the second and third quarters of fiscal 2022, and the impact of approximately $20 million from retailers accelerating orders in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. As I conclude my comments, I'm very proud of the fact that despite significant headwinds and challenges during the first three years of Phase 2, we have delivered core net sales growth of 50%, core adjusted diluted EPS growth of 68%, and core adjusted operating margin expansion of 130 basis points. Our fiscal 2023 outlook plans for continued core business net sales and adjusted EPS growth, as well as adjusted operating margin expansion. Even as we plan to make further growth investments and overcome higher inflationary costs, continued supply chain disruption, and higher interest expense. We're also looking forward to leveraging the opportunities in our existing brands, as well as the new ones created through the acquisitions of Osprey and Curlsmith. We expect these growth investments to set us up for success for the remainder of Phase 2 and beyond.
Bob Labick, Analyst
Thank you. Good morning. Congratulations on a great quarter and year, and on the Curlsmith acquisition.
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Great to hear from you and thanks for the comment.
Bob Labick, Analyst
Thanks. Yeah. So just wanted to start, you touched on or you alluded to the impact of inflation on demand, talked about that a little bit, maybe taking a step back, could you give us a broader sense of the consumer now where the areas of weakness as it relates to inflation, or what are you seeing and what were you hinting at? And you mentioned some softness in I think March and April and so what are you seeing? What's the consumer and then what is your response to that? And how do you play through that?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Yeah. A great question. I think a lot of folks on the call are trying to read the tea leaves on where consumers are as the various factors that dominate the headlines every day play through the quite healthy, and we'll continue to stay so and that said, there is numerous. So what we see is not just more employment, but importantly more labor participation. So that rate we watch very closely because it's one thing to have a job. It's another thing for more people to be in the workplace altogether and then see the unemployment rate go down, means there's just a lot more jobs. Wages are climbing and unfortunately, that climb is largely eaten away by inflation. And so it impacts buying power and ultimately consumer bullishness, animal spirits, all of that. In the case of consumer, they're very wise when and careful with their money. So I think what we're seeing is people just making choices about where to spend in the face of things like higher gas prices and other stuff that grabs headlines. Supermarket itself is just more expensive though to the checkout and ask yourself, how does that feel? It feels more expensive. So we have a good, better, best portfolio. We've been very careful to build one. So think of not just OXO at the high end, but also Softworks at the middle level of the market Revlon, good, Hot Tools, better, Drybar, best, and on it goes through our portfolio. And so we appeal to the all the different price points. And then from a consumer itself, the things like the Michigan Consumer Confidence Indicator speak and their numbers above 100 and it stays there. So that says to us that it backs these up. The only other thing that's on my mind is this very famous thing that you hear all the time, which is, hey, the stimulus money is not in the annual compare now, and consumers want experiences. It doesn't mean they don't want goods. It just means they want experiences. So as people make choices, things re-balanced. All that added to a little pressure in March and April, we said so, and you're right to pick it up. But our outlook importantly includes every single one of the things that I mentioned, plus the ones that were not mentioned, the supply chain costs to $3 a share of inflation, input cost headwinds, etc. So that's how we see it, Bob.
Bob Labick, Analyst
Okay. Great, thanks. And then just kind of sticking along that line. How has kind of the inflation and supply constraints impacted your marketing, your ability to drive sales, your desire to get more people into your products, because the supply trend has been difficult for quite some time. So where do you stand in terms of that marketing and where is the balance of demand and your ability to supply?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
I think we're in much better shape than most on this front. Excuse me, hang on one sec. I'm sorry. I think we're in much better shape than most on this front, and the reason is because we got ahead of the supply chain disruption with the strategic inventory build more than a year ago. Remember, we were coming off of the COVID craziness of especially health-related products and the scarcity of supply. So we built back more quickly and we went with the tough move of depleting our cash flow in order to have more inventory and meet demand. The demand then surged, and so our situation on out-of-stocks and the ability to market to that demand surge was extremely good, and you saw that all through last year. So we just reported a big number in Q4, and you've seen us do it in earlier quarters when others were just suffering from more of the supply chain disruption. We're not bulletproof and we do have some places where there are shortages, but we've been very careful. You also heard in our statements that we're continuing to carry a bit of elevated inventory, but less than before. You see in our balance sheet that our inventory number is down, even though we just put another seven or eight points of growth on the top line, and we're just projecting in Matt's comments to end the year with inventory roughly flat. But remember, we also have the Curlsmith and the Osprey coming in as additional inventory year-over-year, so all of that is netted into the number. But the bottom line of it all is, we're in pretty good shape, but not perfect. And on the contracting in the sea freight and the rest of it, we've been super careful with our suppliers to keep it that way. And there are bumps in the road, whether it's the backups of ships in Long Beach that you see all over the place or the COVID scares that sweep still through China even to this day. So we're not immune, but we're in better shape than most. And on the marketing side, we spend to opportunity has mentioned in my comments. We support the demand and then we support our retail customers. So we're in pretty good shape and on the long term, you heard some pretty substantial comments, I hope in my prepared remarks about the work to diversify our supplier base. So this was mentioned specifically in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and even within China with dual sourcing in multiple places in order to be able to better meet this, which also has the benefits of shorter lead times, less inventory, less steep rate in the other efficiencies I mentioned. So the net of it all is, better shape than most. And we'll spend to the demand and we'll try to stimulate the demand with the marketing line.
Bob Labick, Analyst
Okay. Great. And last one for me, I will jump back in queue, but maybe on Curlsmith, obviously it's a really attractive asset for you. What attracted you to it? What's unique about Curlsmith? You touched on better together, but what are the primary attributes that make you believe it is poised for significant growth going forward? What differentiates it and how can I continue to grow double-digits going forward?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Yeah, great. It's a terrific brand. Curlsmith is quite new. So you remember probably from our Investor Day back in 2019, we said that we're focusing on adding leadership brands and also some up and comers that can serve as, earlier stage tuck-ins, especially when they are disruptive. This one is disruptive in segment of the prestige hair care category that really catches our attention. Not just because it's in prestige rather than mass where you've seen us actually exit rather than lean in with the personal care sales. But is this part of prestige I'm talking about curly hair, is something like 60% of consumers, in fact, just a little bit more have type 2A, or higher hair, and that those types, by the way, you can see it on our website, there's a chart in the Curlsmith back that shows each of the hair types and the type that goes with it in terms of curliness or texturedness. Curlsmith has a unique approach, it's consumer-centric, which is chapter and verse for us, arguably DNA. It has the natural type of ingredients, and on product development, it focuses on consumer-centric changes to get regimens that really work for a group of consumers who are incredibly loyal to their products. And the reason they're loyal is not unique to Curlsmith, it's unique to their hair type, which is when they find something that works, they really stick with it. The further thing we liked about it is the speed of growth in the textured hair segment, it's higher than that of non-textured hair by double, and within prestige, actually by ten times. And then you take Curlsmith itself in that up-and-comer in nature on the better together side, we see the opportunity to significantly expand its distribution almost immediately. We see international opportunity, and then there is an inflection point as an up-and-coming developing company. Everything they need next, bigger sales force, better systems, supply chain, all of it, we have and we've invested big-time in the platform over the last seven or eight years. So dropping more into it using the Beauty machine that we've built in the last four or five years to drive that expansion. This is all super attractive to us. Then you put the margins, the accretion, the less than 10 times multiple that we paid for it. And what you've got is the most profitable brand of Helen of Troy from day one. And further, you've got a business that we think we can grow double-digits for the foreseeable future. On top of this, their talent will join Helen of Troy, just small team less than 15 people. And we are very glad to have them so formal welcome. And on top of this, their expertise can help us in other parts of prestige where we're still in development mode. So better together in the biggest way and who doesn't want your most profitable brand at less than 10 times, Bob.
Bob Labick, Analyst
That sounds great. Congratulations. Thank you.
Rupesh Parikh, Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Also congrats on a really nice quarter. I guess my first question since I've done discussion number times this morning. If we look at core sales growth ex M&A, or even organic growth in your guide next year. Is it fair to assume that you guys are essentially guiding to maybe 1% ish. Is that the right way to think about organic growth for next year?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Yes but with a sweeter mix. So you'll see margin expansion in that guide and yields in a total basis. You'll also see that we're able to use Drybar and Hydro Flask growth to sweeten the mix. And you'll also see that the pricing moves and other changes we're making are overcoming all kinds of things including the 100 basis points or more of gross margin dilution. So there's a lot in that flatness that you're talking about. Then on the flatness itself, I think you're correct, you see a largely flat or maybe slightly up our base business on a total company basis, essentially flat and beauty and health and wellness. And then on home and outdoor, what you'll see is organic growth, and in the case of beauty and home and outdoor, you'll see them turbocharged by each of the two acquisitions. And both by the way, the acquisitions add an attractive mix versus our fleet average.
Rupesh Parikh, Analyst
Okay, great and then just on your commentary, weaker consumption in March and April, any particular categories where you're seeing the weakness, and is it fair to say that you guys are assuming this headwind could persist for the balance of the year?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
We don't pursue it will it will persist for the balance of the year, but we do believe that the factors that were discussed in response to Bob's questions will continue to be choppy. We watch those indicators that I talked about, consumer buying power, real income versus nominal inflation rates. All the things that consumer confidence, labor participation. The things that you've heard. So we watch and we just are cautious to be very clear, that's in our outlook. So if you look at our assumptions and say, well, let's just be harder and harder. We've made an assumption based on what we've seen so far. And then in the case of the weakness on which categories, it's just a general softness. As certain categories more than others we've seen a little bit of it in beauty. We've seen some in certain part of Home and Outdoor, not the outdoor but more in the home side. And then in the health-related categories, it's a bit harder to read because of the Omicron surge. So Omicron, as we talked about, surged big in Q4 and was kind of like a cold and flu season, but in Omicron closing, and that makes it harder to read what the underlying consumption story really is. So we'll see how that plays out. And then we have a diversified portfolio, Rupesh and people often think category by category. But if you look at the whole thing, whether you are talking about the new wildfires like our unfortunately starting even earlier this year. Callout strengthened fans in the specific remarks that we just made in the sale in for a pre-season. And then you heard us talk about innovation, especially consumer-centric innovation, which never goes out of style. So I think we'll be okay in the end and we've certainly put it all into our guidance expectations for fiscal '23.
Rupesh Parikh, Analyst
Meet my last question. So we sort of be HELE generates significant free cash flow, obviously, last year this or inventory and CapEx has weighed on, is going to weigh on the cash generation. So as you look out towards the next years, obviously not looking for guidance, just anything you can share, just from we're normalized CapEx is. As you look at your working capital, do you see further improvements in working capital exiting this year as well?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Yes, we do see improvement in working capital. Let me tip it to Matt, who can speak to both topics while free cash flow and also normalization of working capital as we make some of these big strategic investments.
Matt Osberg, CFO
Yes, thanks. Thanks for the question, Rupesh. So I think you guys can see from what we've put out there, we're ending our year of Fiscal '22 with debt balances of $815 million plus we're putting on the Curlsmith acquisition, which was after year-end. You've got to add a $150 million to that. And we talked about in our prepared remarks today that we're looking at a capex spend on the high end of our range next year, $205 million, which includes the $170 million for the new distribution center. So, implied in that is a business-as-usual CapEx is about $35 million, which is a little bit higher than our typical run rate of $25 million, and we tried to also provide a little bit of context that that is primarily due to us spending a little more on IT systems and infrastructure development in the coming year. So if you take where we ended the debt balance at year-end, you add $150 million for Curlsmith, you add $205 million of CapEx, you put a reasonable assumption for your operating cash flow, you're going to get back to debt balances of almost where we are at the end of the year, for fiscal '22. And we tried to call that out, that the timing of the CapEx investment, because we're in the middle of building that new distribution center will be in the first half of the year, when typically our historical pattern of cash flow generation, that's also the low cash flow generation period for us. So you'll see that kind of debt balance and leverage build through the first half of the year and then come down as we get to the sweeter portion of cash flow generation in the second half of the year for us. So it's good to be a little bit of an up and down, but we think we'll finish the year approximately the same type of leverage that we finished fiscal '22.
Julien Mininberg, CEO
We think that's particularly if you think about that, including adding several $100 million worth of new assets to the company, whether it's the new distribution center or the two acquisitions. If you end up at the same leverage ratio, which is meaningfully below the industry average through the year that takes a lot of cash. You just have to burn through that first half hump to get to the reduction in the back from when we traditionally generate the majority of our cash. So we see it as a win. That said we appreciate the comment because of the lumpiness of the cash flow which you saw this fiscal year and we had tremendous cash flow in Q4. We just reported it over a $140 million. But on a total year basis because we had the inventory build, cash flow was lower and now we put these investments so we totally get where you're coming from and we concur. But if you say we won't just skip past all of the noise and ask, how does it end? It ended two times.
Anthony Lebiedzinski, Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking the questions. We had a strong performance in the fourth quarter. To address your inquiry, what was the effect of the increased product pricing on sales in Q4? Additionally, what price increase levels are incorporated into your revenue guidance for fiscal '23? If you have that information, it would be appreciated.
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Matt, do you want to take that one?
Matt Osberg, CFO
Thanks, Anthony. Yes, we haven't provided that guidance before Anthony and it's not something that we're probably going to be doing. It's a mix. So in Q4, I would say, if you're looking at what made the quarter, it was definitely the operating performance. We've definitely benefited from price increases. We also talked about some of the accelerated orders that we had from retailers. But even taking those throughout towards a very, very strong organic performance in the business. And for a lot of the reasons Julien talked about within Health and Home and strong consumer demand. As we look at next year, we called out the amount of inflationary costs that we expect to face as we head into the year, $75 million to $80 million. And obviously we intend to offset a majority of that through price increases, but also through some of the other leverage items we have in our playbook. And so you can kind of probably gives you a little bit of a scope of what that is. But it's going to be meaningful to the full fiscal year for fiscal '23 because you have two impacts. One is the price increases that were put in in the back half of fiscal '22 will be annualized during that year. So you'll get kind of a half of a year of fiscal '22 price increases that went in place. Plus you'll get pricing, new price increases that have been put in place for fiscal '23. So they'll be much more meaningful in fiscal '23 than they were in fiscal '22.
Anthony Lebiedzinski, Analyst
Thank you for that. That's definitely very helpful context. And then in terms of your inventory position, so even with the Osprey acquisition, your inventory overall was down sequentially from the November quarter. Just wondering, how do you feel about the health of your inventory and then just put that into context in terms of the current lockdowns in China, how does that impact your inventory, the way you guys think about that?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Let me begin by saying that we are in a stronger position than most and are happy to have started the year with a slightly higher inventory level. We made that decision strategically, but navigating the fluctuations in supply chain disruptions due to post-COVID changes has been challenging. Some of it is due to luck, while some stems from careful planning. Regarding our inventory, we are satisfied that we've been able to reduce it from the higher level we reported at the end of last quarter. We had stated we would do this, and despite adding the Osprey and Curlsmith working capital, we feel confident in our position, especially considering the ongoing concerns about China and potential lockdowns that could affect us. We believe we have sufficient buffer in place. The inventory we have on the water aligns well with our plans. We've also noticed that consumer purchasing was a bit slower in March and April, allowing us to accumulate stock in key categories rather than just selling through. Throughout the year, we plan to reduce inventory, which will positively impact the cash flow that Matt mentioned in response to Rupesh's question. This should improve our turnover rates, health, interest expenses, and all associated aspects as we lower our inventory. Even if we end the year flat, I'd still view that as a success because we're driving growth within the company while managing inventory levels relative to our expectations.
Anthony Lebiedzinski, Analyst
Thank you for that. I have one last question to better understand the quarterly trends. You mentioned that most sales and earnings growth is expected in the second and third quarters. However, considering the softness we saw in March and April, along with the impact of the Osprey and Curlsmith acquisitions, could you clarify whether you still anticipate growth in sales and earnings during the first and fourth quarters?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Let me hand this over mainly to Matt. Before I do, I want to highlight that we had an exceptional first quarter last fiscal year. Among the four quarters we'll be referencing now, from the new base we've established, the highest year-over-year growth occurred in Q1 of last year. I want to ensure everyone is aware of this. Regarding how this will unfold over the quarters, perhaps Matt can provide additional insight beyond what you’ve already seen in our press release about the quarterly cadence.
Matt Osberg, CFO
Yes. To emphasize what Julien mentioned, we experienced a 30% increase in sales last year during Q1 and a 37% increase in earnings for the same quarter. We want to make it clear in our outlook that these were significant figures to build upon. In Q2 and Q3, we saw the greatest impact from the EPA situation, which resulted in a relatively lower comparison base. We also just completed a strong Q4, setting a higher standard for Q4 next year. Overall, we anticipate that most of our earnings and sales growth will occur in the second and third quarters of the upcoming year.
Linda Bolton-Weiser, Analyst
Hi, how are you?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Good. Nice to talk to you.
Linda Bolton-Weiser, Analyst
Yes. Great. Same here. Can I just ask you to, just to make sure I understand the projection for FY 2023 for the Health & Wellness segment? Because we had originally expected you to gain back some of the lost sales that you lost from the labeling issue. But then there's incremental labeling changes. So is the idea that they offset each other. And that's why we're not expecting really any growth? Or am I understanding that correctly? Can you give a little bit more explanation?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Sure. Net tend to the good is the answer. Meaning $10 million upside net of the two, meaning the good guy and the bad guy that's you're referring to. The old recovery and the new labeling matters that we're now working through. And so the result is $10 million to the good and $0.10 to the good on the bottom line. So 10 to the good, $10 million on the top, $0.10 on the bottom. Because they will is that less than we expected, the answer is yes. What we had originally projected that roughly half of the recovery would occur in fiscal '23. We're sticking by that actually in our outlook. We may be able to do a bit better. We're certainly trying. And on the new stuff, it's being worked through as we speak. But when we net it all together, we thought rather than go through all the drama we'll just make a projection and just put the number out there so that people don't have to sweat this.
Linda Bolton-Weiser, Analyst
Okay. And then with regard to this issue with your third-party facility that may impact sales a little bit. I'm just wondering the EPA labeling issue and your inability to ship did affect market shares in certain areas. So I'm wondering if this issue with the other facility could also open up an opportunity for competitors to take advantage of the situation. So can you be a little more specific, what product lines? Is it particular beauty products? What's being affected by the inability to ship?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Importantly, it was largely a storage facility, as Matt mentioned, and this was a tornado-like event. I think the weather service classifies tornadoes a very specific way, they have to touch down for a certain amount of time and all that, so we didn't get into deciding exactly what kind of storm it was, we just called it a big weather thing. If you saw the place, you'd see it looks like a tornado hit. And in terms of getting in there to assess all the detail, this will be done, as Matt mentioned in his remarks, as soon as it's safe to go back in the building, that work is being done right now. And we already have a preliminary estimate, which we've included in our outlook based on what we know so far. It's storage facilities, is very little shipping. Happens out of their Beauty, got hurt by a couple of million dollars’ worth of an item that we couldn't ship. And therefore, it's cooked into our outlook. It's also in those Q1 comments that we made. And in the case of the Health & Wellness, it's not so much the EPA related. So think of some fans and some other products that are little further out in our shipping cycle for our upcoming seasonal businesses. So of course, we're working with our suppliers to replace what we think is affected. And as soon as we get in there, we'll find out how much of the product is still good and sellable and can be moved to shipping facilities versus how much has to get put into the insurance cycle and then because we're insured, we'll have our recovery that way. So that's how we approach it right now. I wish I could put numbers on it all and tell you exactly which SKUs we believe we know and that said once we get eyes and can do the accounts and do the damage check then we'll be able to get very specific.
Matt Osberg, CFO
Say, Linda, this is Matt. I might be able to add just a little bit to that just on the concerns over market share losses. Julien pointed out, we had some of that loss was a very specific promotion that we were running for Beauty so that was timely. We had to get inventory into it for that one specific promotion and we missed the window on it. So that's I would look at as something that's really a long-term product placement on the shelves of some very specific. And then Julien said the other part of it was a lot of seasonal inventory for Health & Wellness. And that seasonal inventory, a lot of it is originally filled by retailers through DI shipments. And then a lot of what we have is replacement and replenishment as they sell through that during the year. So I think it's more temporary than permanent, but we'll have to go through the cycle here and see how fast we can get back into restoring that inventory.
Linda Bolton-Weiser, Analyst
Okay. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Julien Mininberg, CEO
We're. No problem. Then, Lynn, I saw you had some other questions in the report that you've put out on Curlsmith and I know that a lot of those answers or in the PowerPoint that we have posted on our website. So you probably had a chance to look. And then one in particular, I want to make sure got to address here. Which is, this is not about hairstyle Curlsmith, as much as it is about hair type. So there's just a lot of people, not just women, by the way, but also men that have textured hair. And regardless of whether it's an ethnic person of color or it's just someone with wavy or curly hair. The texture of hair altogether is plenty of people have all types. This type of hair is difficult to care for. So when you meet people with that type of hair and ask them, how do you care for your hair? They'll be quite involved in its care because it's challenging. And when they find products that stick with it, they're tremendously loyal to them. Curlsmith has the highest net promoters we've seen so far in that category. It has the loyalty rates and the reviews that speak to this further. And because it's a repurchase of ball or consumable product that's extremely attractive to us and it's one of the things that made us go forward as opposed to something that might not be as sticky. So that's the, and I don't mean the products, I mean the habit as sticky, so that's attractive to us. But it's not about, hi curls may come back, it's more about, if you have that type of hair, this is just important in your everyday regimen, regardless of your fashion.
Steve Marotta, Analyst
Good morning, Julien, Matt, and Jack. Julien, has the Ukraine conflict negatively impacted the European consumer? Is that discernible at this moment or still just not impacted?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Not directly that we know of. However, we are acutely aware that there are numerous pressures in the world affecting consumer confidence and purchasing power. Regarding whether the Ukraine situation has diminished European demand, we haven't observed clear evidence of that. We have noticed some fluctuations in exchange rates, particularly with the pound and euro. We have hedges in place to mitigate risks, but significant movements in those currencies have occurred. Our direct exposure to Russia is minimal, and in Ukraine, we have less than a million dollars tied up with prepaid customers. The money has already been collected, and they will do their best with sell-through, but it's minimal. Overall, the situation in Europe is troubling, and I cannot state anything positive about its impact. Currently, we are not seeing a direct influence.
Steve Marotta, Analyst
Thank you. And I know that we are not seeing a direct impact at this time.
Julien Mininberg, CEO
I'm sorry, Steve. I want to mention that the vast majority of our European sales are in Western Europe. Some of them are in the Middle Eastern countries, but there's a surprisingly small amount in the Eastern European countries, especially in the Southeastern European countries. So think of Moldova, Belarus, Ukraine, these types of countries, it's just not a big part of our portfolio.
Steve Marotta, Analyst
Sure. I understand. I know that all the supply chain constraints that are known at this moment are incorporated within the guidance. But can you talk a little bit about direct exposure to Shanghai? Is that a new thorn in the side or is your exposure there relatively not material?
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Doesn't help, or relatively lean. The vast majority of our operational footprint in China is in other parts of China, especially Shenzhen, Macau, Hong Kong, from both supply chain and a go-to-market standpoint in the region. That said we do have some people on the ground in Shanghai, so it doesn't help. And then in the northern parts of China, I think Ningpo and other parts, we do have people on the ground and capability and infrastructure. So it doesn't affect but Shanghai in particular is just not a center of gravity for us at this time. So I suppose that's good news. And that said the concept of enforcing the lockdown broadly, whether it Shanghai or in other cities, it does have an impact, right? We see that in port shutdowns and other things. And as strong as our inventory buffers aren't as good as our supply chain playbook is. If the stuff doesn't get made, it certainly doesn't ship. And if it doesn't ship and it can't get here, or to Europe. And so it does affect us. But we have enough buffer to get through call it bumps in the road, but not through earthquake.
Steve Marotta, Analyst
I understand. Thank you. I have a few more I will take offline. Thank you again.
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Pleasure. Thanks. Nice to hear from everybody. Operator, are there more questions at this time?
Operator, Operator
It appears that we don't have any questions at this time, and I would like to turn it back over to Mr. Mininberg for closing remarks.
Julien Mininberg, CEO
Yes. That's me. Well, thanks. Thanks, everyone. Thanks for joining today and for your continued interest in Helen of Troy. We're super excited about the results we just posted. You've heard us speak clearly about what's happened over the last three years as Phase 2 has had its first half and you've heard us speak as specifically as we know how on what's our expectation for Phase 2's back half. And in particular, the guidance that we just provided for fiscal '23. We also I hope heard us reiterate our commitment to the long-term Phase 2 average annual targets for fiscal '24. So where we stand. And so we're excited about the future. We're excited to speak to many of you in the coming weeks. And with that, I'll say thank you very much and have a great day.
Operator, Operator
This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.