Earnings Call Transcript
HOLOGIC INC (HOLX)
Earnings Call Transcript - HOLX Q3 2023
Operator, Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to Hologic's Third Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Cynthia, and I am your operator for today's call. Today's conference is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute. I would now like to introduce Ryan Simon, Vice President, Investor Relations, to begin the call. Please go ahead.
Ryan Simon, Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, Cynthia. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining Hologic's third quarter fiscal 2023 earnings call. With me today are Steve MacMillan, the company's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Karleen Oberton, our Chief Financial Officer. Our third quarter press release is available now on the Investors section of our website. We will also post our prepared remarks to our website shortly after we deliver them, as well as an updated corporate presentation. And a replay of this call will be available on our website for the next 30 days. Before we begin, we would like to inform you that certain statements we make today will be forward-looking. These statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Such factors include those referenced in the safe harbor statement included in our earnings release and SEC filings. Also during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to GAAP can be found in our earnings release. Two of these non-GAAP measures are one, organic revenue, which we define as revenue excluding the divested blood screening business and revenue from acquired businesses owned by Hologic for less than one year; and two, organic revenue, excluding COVID-19, which excludes COVID-19 assay revenue, revenue related to COVID-19, and sales from discontinued products in Diagnostics. Finally, any percentage changes we discuss will be on a year-over-year basis, and revenue growth rates will be in constant currency unless otherwise noted. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Steve MacMillan, Hologic's CEO.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Thank you, Ryan, and good afternoon, everyone. We're pleased to discuss our financial results for the third quarter of fiscal 2023. Our results were solid. Total revenue was $984 million, and non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.93. Revenue exceeded our prior guidance, and EPS finished at the high end of our range. These results showcase the power of our transformed business and demonstrate that Hologic is built for the long term with the broadest, strongest foundation we've ever had. On top of this transformation, with our strong cash flow and outstanding balance sheet, we continue to operate from a position of strength, with strong operational discipline as we forge ahead. Once again, the proof is in the numbers. Total company organic growth, excluding COVID, was rather remarkable at 18.4%. By division, we posted 11.8% organic diagnostics growth ex-COVID and 14.5% growth in Surgical. Standing alone, these growth rates are impressive. Given a wider context, we view these performances as exceptionally strong because we delivered these results on top of 15% growth in Diagnostics and 9.7% growth in Surgical in Q3 of 2022, both very high bars from a year ago. And in Breast Health, as expected, we delivered another strong quarter of 27.5% growth as chip supply and gantry availability continue to improve and track to our expectations. For this fiscal year, we remain on pace to achieve or exceed our 2023 low double-digit organic growth targets, excluding COVID. In fact, our expected growth rate for fiscal '23 is now more than double our 5% to 7% long-term growth target. Based on our strong performance for a number of quarters now, combined with our continued confidence in our growth ahead, we've recently given serious consideration to raising our long-term target. But given the uncertain macro environment we face, 5% to 7% is still very much a solid long-term outlook. Put simply, there are two reasons why. First, as you all well know, growing 5% to 7% on top of double-digit growth is clearly more challenging than growing 5% to 7% against single-digit comps. For example, in fiscal 2024, we will lap several prior periods of double-digit growth throughout the year. Net, we'll be entering 2024 already much bigger and stronger than when we first set the goal. And second, there are macro business and geopolitical challenges that persist today, which did not exist back in 2021 when we first set our guide. We will expand on this aspect later in today's call. Taken together, overcoming this combination of challenges, while maintaining 5% to 7% growth is in some ways an even larger goal than when we first established it. On that note, let's move on to our focus for today. First, we will highlight the strengths of our business that underpin our strong Q3 results. Our strengths are diverse and durable. Second, with a discussion of the unique advantages we provide our customers, we hope you'll share our confidence that Hologic is built for the long-term. Moving forward to our Q3 growth drivers. As mentioned, excluding COVID, each division posted double-digit organic growth for the quarter. Equally impressive is the year-over-year consistency of our growth drivers, a direct result of execution against our business strategy. In Diagnostics, the division's overall 11.8% organic growth rate, excluding COVID, was again driven by strong performance in molecular. For the quarter, Molecular Diagnostics posted approximately 13% growth ex-COVID, on top of growing over 20% a year ago. Growth in molecular was driven by a combination of both newer assays like BV, CV/TV and contributions from Amgen and HSV, each growing well into the double digits as well as strong growth from our longstanding women's health menu. Rounding out Molecular Diagnostics, our Biotheranostics acquisition continues to shine, being both accretive to our top and bottom lines. Cytology and Perinatal led by cytology also contributed strong growth this quarter, growing nearly 10%. Cytology's elevated growth for Q3 was driven by the timing of a few large orders placed in the last week of the quarter before the extended July 4 holiday. We view this as a one-time lift as opposed to a shift in the trajectory of the business. That said, co-testing, which includes the Pap+HPV, continues to be the preferred cervical cancer screening method for medical practitioners. These are the same practitioners who are on the front lines, who know the science and who have seen the overwhelmingly positive impact of the Pap and co-testing firsthand. By our estimates, nearly 99% of cervical cancer screening today in the United States is performed using a combination of the Pap alone or co-testing. Why? The reason is clear. The Pap test has been the most successful cancer screening test in history. Since the Pap was introduced over 80 years ago, the rate of cervical cancer, which was the leading cause of death among women, has fallen by more than 70%. As an advocate of women's health for over 35 years, we continue to support best-in-class care for women, and for cervical cancer screening, the gold standard is co-testing with ThinPrep, the Pap+HPV. Shifting to Breast Health, as expected, we posted another exceptional quarter, growing revenue 27.5%. This strong performance was driven primarily by the ongoing return of our Mammography business as well as solid contributions from service. In Mammography, as we guided in May, we delivered more gantries in Q3 than Q1 and slightly less than in Q2. Demand for our clinically differentiated gantries remains high. In addition, our backlog is still at historically elevated levels. We are in great shape to work down this backlog to more normal levels throughout our fiscal 2024 and possibly beyond. In breast service, our business continues to grow and is becoming an even larger part of the division's mix. Our strong service performance represents stable contracted recurring revenue and demonstrates deepening relationships with our customers. Now moving on to Surgical and our International business, the newer pillars of growth for our company that may not be fully appreciated. In Surgical, the business continues to grow stronger for longer, growing 14.5% in Q3. Revenue growth was again driven by MyoSure and the Fluent Fluid Management System, with contributions from NovaSure V5 and our newer laparoscopic portfolio. Specifically, while still early days in smaller dollars, Bolder continues its strong growth as we leverage our relationships with our GYN customers and explore adjacent surgical channels. The transformation of our Surgical business over recent years has been phenomenal. It underscores the value of both internal innovation and product line additions through M&A, a winning formula across Hologic. In Surgical, the sum of both strategies has injected new life into the business and transformed it into a meaningful growth driver for the company. Our international business also continues to impress, growing 20.9% in the quarter, excluding COVID. In May, our global leadership team traveled to our Brussels office as part of our annual strategic planning process, and spending a week in Brussels reinforced a sense of pride within our leadership team. We are proud of the strides we've made expanding our global footprint, and even more important, we are proud of the energy and culture we've built around the world. Coupled with a strong base of talent we have developed over the past few years, we firmly believe our highly engaged workforce and purpose-driven culture truly set us apart. As we've said before, the revenue growth rate for our international business is accretive to our overall growth rate. We expect this trend to continue throughout our long-term horizon. Related, earlier in today's call, we referenced persistent macro challenges in the context of our long-term guide. When we first announced our 5% to 7% guide, we were expecting tailwinds in places like China and Russia, rather than the headwinds they have become. Despite these challenges, we remain committed to our targets, and with strong performance in other geographies where we operate, our international growth remains on track. This is a testament to the commitment, grit, and determination of all our employees that support and drive our efforts around the world. Now shifting gears to discuss the advantage we provide to our customers and how we are poised for long-term success. To fully appreciate where we're going, we must reflect on where we've been. From there, we will shed light on our unwavering patient and customer focus, which sets the stage for our bright future. Our transformation has been years in the making. It started even before COVID and, as we know, accelerated during the pandemic. In the early days of COVID, when fear and uncertainty led to closures and shutdowns, we delivered our highly accurate COVID molecular diagnostic tests around the globe, playing a pivotal role in helping get the world back on its feet. With COVID surges and high testing volumes now further in the rearview mirror, our ongoing performance shows that we are much more than a great pandemic story. Without a doubt, we are a bigger, stronger company with more durable and diverse growth drivers and positioned well for the long haul. On top of this transformation, with our strong cash flow and exceptional balance sheet, we operate today from a position of strength and continue to exercise operational discipline. As we look ahead, we are laser focused on our purpose, passion, and promise, and never lose sight of the needs of our patients and our customers. This is the magic within our business. Today, our customers face the challenge of navigating this new operating environment. They seek vendors who can help them operate as efficiently as possible. For labs and hospitals, pressures from inflation and labor shortages remain despite recent improvement. With efficiency a priority, when our customers think of Hologic, they see opportunity. The opportunity to consolidate around our portfolio of products in Diagnostics, Breast Health, and Surgical that offer innovative solutions to dramatically improve their operational efficiency. Seconds can turn to minutes and days of time and labor savings throughout the course of a year. In each of our businesses, we feature products that streamline workflows and create real advantages that our customers not only love but need. From our sophisticated automation with Panther and advances in AI with digital cytology and Diagnostics to our industry-leading gantry scan speed, and streamlined biopsy process with Brevera in Breast Health. And finally, our efficient fluid management approach with Fluent in Surgical. Workflow efficiency is in the DNA of our entire portfolio. In addition, the fact that we have specialized service teams to focus on the unique needs of our customers adds to our competitive advantage. Our customers know that when they choose Hologic, they not only receive world-class products but also world-class service. Between our robust portfolio of industry-leading products and specialized service capabilities, we create a very attractive opportunity for our customers. We offer real and measurable efficiencies that improve their bottom lines and, more importantly, improve the standard of care for patients. This combination sets us up well to meet our customers' needs, both today and into the future, and creates an incredible pathway for Hologic's success. In closing, there are many companies that can sell products. There are fewer who can consistently deliver so many leadership brands and sector-leading margins over the long term, and there are even fewer who can succeed financially while also helping the world. At Hologic, we do all three. We are tremendously proud to continue our journey, delivering outstanding top-line growth and profitability. Driving value for all our stakeholders and further enabling our ability to make a profound impact on patients' lives and women's health around the world. With that, I will now turn the call over to Karleen.
Karleen Oberton, CFO
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. In my statements today, we will briefly revisit our divisional revenue results, walk down our income statement, and speak to a few balance sheet and cash flow items. We will wrap up with our guidance for the full year and fourth quarter of fiscal 2023. As Steve highlighted, our third quarter financial results were strong, showcasing the durability of our business and the diversified contributions to our growth. Total revenue came in at $984 million, exceeding our estimates, and non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.93, meeting the high end of our previous guidance range. Now starting with our divisional revenue performance. In Diagnostics, global revenue of $439.7 million declined 21.3%. However, excluding COVID assay and related ancillary revenues, the division grew 11.8% in the quarter. We are once again thrilled by the solid performance, which reinforces the underlying strength of our Diagnostics business. As Steve shared, Molecular Diagnostics grew approximately 13% during our third quarter, excluding the impact of COVID. Additionally, the Cytology and Perinatal business posted nearly 10% growth in our fiscal third quarter. For reasons previously discussed, when modeling, we would advise not to extrapolate this level of growth going forward to our Cytology and Perinatal segment. Moving to Breast Health, total third quarter revenue of $360.3 million increased 27.5%. In conjunction with our Q2 performance, these results provide further evidence of strong demand for the division's portfolio of products and services. While the current revenue growth rate was assisted by supply chain headwinds in the prior year, we are encouraged by the trajectory of the business and the increasing predictability of our semiconductor chip supply. Moving next to Surgical. Third quarter revenue of $157.3 million increased nearly 15% compared to the prior year. Our internal R&D efforts, international execution, and recent laparoscopic acquisitions have contributed to an increasingly diverse and robust business. And finally, in our Skeletal business, revenue of $27.1 million was also very strong, increasing 25%. Now let's move on to the rest of the non-GAAP P&L for the third quarter. Gross margin of 60.8% was driven by strong performance in our base business, and COVID-19 testing revenues, which came in slightly above our expectations. Total operating expenses of $313.9 million in the third quarter increased nominally by 0.9%. This increase was driven by higher sales and R&D expenses but was partially offset by lower marketing spend. Below operating income, other income once again represented a gain in our fiscal third quarter. We continue to benefit from higher interest rates as interest income from our cash balance of nearly $2.8 billion, and the favorable impact of our interest rate hedge has more than offset higher interest expense on our floating rate debt. Our tax rate in Q3 was 21.4%, higher than previously anticipated. The increase in this quarter's effective tax rate represents a cumulative catch-up in the current period to increase our annual tax rate from 19% to 19.75%. The increase in our tax rate for fiscal 2023 is driven by stronger than forecasted domestic performance and losses outside the U.S., which we cannot claim benefit from at this time. Putting these pieces together, operating margin for Q3 came in at 28.9%, and net margin was 23.5%. Non-GAAP net income finished at $231.3 million, and non-GAAP EPS was $0.93. Finally, while up to this point, we have discussed non-GAAP financial metrics, we feel it's important to call out a non-cash impairment charge related to Mobidiag, which is excluded from our non-GAAP results. To be clear, we continue to be excited about Mobidiag and its long-term potential. As we've previously shared, due to various challenges, our entry to the U.S. market will be materially beyond our initial deal model expectations. During our annual strategic planning process in Q3, the need to lower the carrying value of primarily Mobidiag's intangible assets became evident. As a result, we booked a GAAP write-down of $197 million in the quarter specific to Mobidiag, which primarily impacts cost but also operating expenses. Moving on from the P&L, cash flow from operations was $332.7 million in our third quarter. We ended the quarter with $2.77 billion of cash on our balance sheet and a net leverage ratio of 0.1x. In addition, we repurchased 1.4 million shares worth $114 million in the period. Year-to-date, we have purchased 3.6 million shares for $264 million. As it relates to our longer-term capital allocation strategy, we continue to operate from a position of strength with underlying strong organic growth in each of our businesses. With the growth and margin profile we have today, our hurdle rate to achieve accretion is notably higher than in years past. In addition, we want to make clear that while we are now open to looking at transactions that could be slightly larger, these are by no means the only targets in our funnel. We are prioritizing the right deals, not necessarily larger ones, and continue to be active, diligent, and patient. Now let's move on to our updated non-GAAP financial guidance for the fourth quarter and full-year fiscal 2023. For the full-year fiscal 2023, we are again increasing our guidance at midpoints and expect total revenue in the range of $3.995 billion to $4.035 billion and EPS of $3.87 to $3.94. With only one quarter remaining in our fiscal year, this annual guidance implies revenue of $910 million to $950 million and EPS of $0.80 to $0.87 for our fiscal fourth quarter. With respect to foreign exchange, we are assuming an FX headwind of slightly less than $40 million for the full-year, a marginal improvement compared to our previous guidance. Turning to our divisions, we want to reiterate that each business should grow double-digits in our fiscal 2023, excluding the impact of COVID. However, it is important to remember that 2023 is a unique fiscal year. As a reminder, part of our elevated growth this year has been due to weak comps from supply chain headwinds and COVID's impact on procedural volumes in fiscal 2022. In addition, 2023 is a 53-week fiscal year. Therefore, as we move closer to our fiscal 2024, as Steve discussed, it is appropriate to model our base business revenue growth within our previously outlined 5% to 7% long-term range. Reinforcing Steve's comments, this growth is even more impressive than when we introduced the target, given our recent base business outperformance and headwinds from the macro environment. Starting with Diagnostics, we expect to close out the year with another strong quarter led by molecular. Our growth continues to be driven by improving utilization and menu expansion on Panther, coupled with increasing contribution from Biotheranostics. Closing out non-COVID diagnostics, we expect blood revenue of approximately $35 million for the year. In terms of COVID revenue, we expect COVID assay sales to be approximately $10 million in our fourth quarter of 2023 and slightly more than $235 million for the full-year. COVID-related items are expected to be slightly more than $25 million in the fourth quarter and slightly less than $120 million for the full-year. As we look forward with COVID testing revenue, demand and public concern for the disease continue to abate. Therefore, although we plan financially conservatively in our COVID estimates, areas of significant upside to our COVID guidance are likely in the rearview mirror. It is also key to recognize that COVID is an accretive product and therefore, as COVID testing revenue shifts lower in the next several quarters, this will represent a headwind to margins. Moving to Breast Health. In Q4, we anticipate similar performance to Q3, delivering double-digit revenue growth aided by strong demand as well as weak comps in prior periods. Finally, in Surgical, we expect healthy double-digit growth for the full-year but assume growth rates will start to moderate in Q4 given the elevated comparable period revenue we generated in the prior year. Moving down to P&L. For the full-year, we expect our non-GAAP gross margin percentage to be in the low 60s, and our non-GAAP operating margin percentage to be approximately 30%. Within this operating margin profile, we have again incorporated temporary elevated cost pressures in our guidance. On this point, we remind everyone that our elevated cost profile is less related to current movements in spot prices, which have been receding. For example, one of the primary drivers of our higher assumed costs is semiconductor chips we have previously procured at higher prices. As we work down our backlog in Breast Health, we'll see this higher cost amortized through the P&L over the next several quarters and persist into our fiscal 2024. We continue to work down the P&L. We expect operating expenses in Q4 to be relatively flat compared to Q3. Below operating income, we assume that other income net to be an expense of slightly more than $10 million in Q4. Our guidance is based on an annual effective tax rate of approximately 19.75%, and diluted shares outstanding are expected to be approximately $249 million for the full-year. To conclude, our strong third quarter results highlight a durable business that is poised to sustainably grow over the long term. Our growth in the quarter was diverse, with each business again growing double-digits organically, excluding COVID. As we close out our fiscal 2023 and look to 2024, we are excited about the unique growth drivers in each of our franchises and the optionality provided by our pristine balance sheet. Our stakeholders can count on Hologic to deliver against our financial commitments while also advancing the global state of women's health. With that, we ask the operator to open the call for questions.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. We will take our first question from Patrick Donnelly with Citi. Please go ahead.
Patrick Donnelly, Analyst
Hey guys, thanks for taking the question. Steve, maybe we can start on the molecular side, obviously, starting to come up against some more difficult comps here. You guys have put up some good numbers. Can you just talk about the underlying performance here? I know you've called out a few growth assays, the Panther usage on non-COVID assays a bit. Any metrics? I know you guys don't want to talk utilization anymore, but any metrics you can point to just in terms of the future growth, obviously a big contributor to that 5% to 7% next year as well, I'm sure. I just wanted to dive into that a little bit?
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes. I think the big piece, we've got, obviously the core women's health menu continues to do well. And I think what keeps getting not fully appreciated, Patrick, is all those additional Panthers we placed during COVID. We kept saying many of those are going to be adopting our new menu, and that's exactly what we're seeing playing out. So the core women's health menu, frankly, some of the virals especially outside the United States, and then the new products, the organic growth of BV/CV, which has really just been off to a tremendous start. And while that's not going to exactly replace COVID, certainly not at its peak, it rapidly will become one of the largest assays we've ever developed organically. So I think we just keep seeing tremendous growth for really years to come as they keep ramping up. Karleen?
Karleen Oberton, CFO
Yes. And I would just add that Biotheranostics continues to be a strong double-digit grower contributing to the molecular performance.
Patrick Donnelly, Analyst
Okay, that's helpful. Yes. And then, Karleen, maybe one on the margins. You talked a little bit about some of the headwinds, whether it's pandemic COVID or the chip cost. Second half, I think the second half is 28% and change in terms of the op margins. I believe the Street is almost 31% next year. So what's the right way to think about just the cadence as we work our way into next year? You obviously talked a little bit about the growth, but on that margin side, do some of those headwinds alleviate or should we be resetting next year a little closer to what we're seeing the exit rate at here on the margin side?
Karleen Oberton, CFO
Yes. So a couple of comments. First, we haven't provided guidance for fiscal '24, and we're not doing that on this call. I would say that what we're seeing here in Q3 and Q4 for operating margins in that 29% range are probably the trough of the low, and we do expect margins to improve over the course of '24. Again, we haven't given that exact percentage, but would expect them to improve from here as some of the inflationary pressures do abate over time.
Operator, Operator
We will take our next question from Mike Matson with Needham & Company. Please go ahead.
Mike Matson, Analyst
Yes, thanks. Let's see here. So I guess just starting with the comments on China and Russia, maybe you can provide a little more detail there. Can you talk about, I guess, Russia exposure? How much is that? Is that going to zero because of the latest sanctions? And then China, do you think there's kind of a longer-term slowdown in your business there?
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes, Mike, I believe we were able to take advantage of opportunities in Russia. When we created our strategic plan, we aimed for 5% to 7% growth. We had minimal presence in Russia but ambitious plans for expansion. The positive aspect is that we are not losing business; rather, we are facing a lack of opportunities and growth potential. We are quite satisfied that only 2% to 3% of our revenue currently comes from China, considering the ongoing challenges there. We've managed to navigate that situation relatively well, although it won’t lead to the growth we once anticipated. In hindsight, when we projected 5% to 7%, we expected China and Russia to contribute positively to that growth. Currently, Russia is essentially stagnant at zero growth, and China is neither a significant advantage nor disadvantage as we had hoped. In summary, our core businesses and key regions are actually growing at a faster rate than we initially projected.
Mike Matson, Analyst
Okay. Regarding your operating margin, I need to go back quite a bit because of the Aesthetics deal, but I believe it was around 33% to 34% in fiscal 2016. Is there any reason why you can't return to those levels in the long term, especially given the decline from the low 30s to the high 20s that you're experiencing now? I understand COVID has played a role, but is the drop in the non-COVID business primarily due to inflation, or are there other contributing factors? The business mix doesn't seem significantly different from that time.
Karleen Oberton, CFO
I'll address this with a few key points. First, regarding earnings growth, we anticipate a 5% to 7% increase in revenue while aiming for a higher growth rate in EPS, likely in the low double-digit range. When we look at operating margins, Q2 2020 was at 31.5%. If we compare to 2016, the business has become more diversified and is probably seeing more growth outside the U.S. compared to that year. We've seen double-digit growth internationally on the top line, although there is some distribution affecting total margins. Looking ahead to 2024, as I mentioned, the latter half of 2023 appears to be the low point at 29%. We expect improvements into 2024 as costs associated with semiconductors and other inflationary pressures, like freight, begin to ease over the year. Our focus remains on achieving low double-digit EPS growth while continuing to invest in R&D and marketing initiatives to boost revenue, rather than strictly pursuing historical operating margin percentages.
Operator, Operator
We will take our next question from Jack Meehan with Nephron Research. Please go ahead.
Jack Meehan, Analyst
Thank you. Good afternoon.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Hi, Jack.
Jack Meehan, Analyst
Steve, so the number one question I've been getting on Hologic is actually related to Illumina. So I was wondering if you could just share some brief thoughts on your decision to join as Chairman there and just comment on your ongoing commitment to Hologic as Chairman and CEO?
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes, sure. Let's be really clear. I'm at Hologic through the end of my useful life in terms of what I've worked for and built. And as a reminder to everybody, I am personally a top 15 shareholder in Hologic. So this is my day job. This is my passion. This is my love. What I have to see is the company five minutes away, that's troubled that I thought, frankly, I could also help out in a different role, which is as Chairman of the Board. And I'm very proud that I think I can do both. If I didn't have the great team around me at Hologic, I wouldn't be able to. Frankly, over there, it's going to be about also just getting a great CEO in place. And we're making a couple of key decisions there, which are probably pretty obvious. And then it's going to be a normal Chairmanship from there. So this is my love and my passion, and frankly, where I'm fully engaged, sometimes more than my teams would like.
Karleen Oberton, CFO
I would add, Jack, that last week, we had all the teams together for our quarterly business reviews, and Steve was as engaged as ever.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
I want to add…
Jack Meehan, Analyst
I appreciate that. That's what I wanted to hear. Sounds promising. Now, regarding another question that many investors have about guidelines related to co-testing, it was encouraging to see a strong quarter in cytology. I was wondering if you could share your current thoughts on the USPSTF, particularly if you have an idea of when an update on cervical cancer screening might occur and how that could potentially impact the business. Thank you.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes, Jack, regarding the USPSTF guidelines on cervical cancer screening, we don't have a specific timeline for updates. It could be several months, possibly late this year or early next year, but it's uncertain. The key point to consider is the initial announcement of any changes to the guidelines, whether for breast cancer or cervical cancer, and the actual impact they have in practice among physicians. For instance, when the USPSTF previously recommended that women wait until age 50 for mammograms instead of 40, medical practice didn’t change significantly. Even when they reversed that recommendation to include age 40 again, the change was minimal because practices had already settled. I believe this applies similarly to cervical cancer. The Pap test has been a gold standard and has significantly reduced cervical cancer rates, making it an effective procedure over time. While it may not be the most comfortable experience, it has proven to be very effective, and we expect it to remain strong. There may be some media coverage around any changes, and we hope that the viewpoints of patient groups and the medical community are taken into account. Ultimately, any guideline changes are unlikely to have a substantial effect on our business in the long term. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
We will take our next question from Vijay Kumar with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Vijay Kumar, Analyst
Hi, Steve, thanks for answering my questions. First, I want to clarify your comments regarding fiscal '24. It seems that you're indicating the base business, excluding COVID, should grow by 5% to 7%, considering some headwinds. Are Russia and China factors that will affect fiscal '24? If so, could you provide more details on their potential impact? When you mention that 5% to 7% growth, should we lean towards the lower end given some of the macro comments you've shared?
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes. The 5% to 7% range we mentioned in relation to Russia and China, as I explained earlier, indicates that Russia presents a lack of growth opportunity. It's not a headwind; rather, it's the absence of what could have been a tailwind in our strategic plan. We feel confident about maintaining that range and will provide guidance during our November call.
Vijay Kumar, Analyst
Sorry, is China a headwind, Steve, for next year?
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Not additionally to this year, in our minds probably.
Vijay Kumar, Analyst
Understood. Understood.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
We feel very good. I think the gist that we keep trying to say here is we feel better and better about the growth of our base businesses in all of our core geographies today.
Vijay Kumar, Analyst
Understood, Karleen. The gross margin has decreased sequentially. You mentioned inventories impacting the P&L, which suggests this could continue into the first half of next year. Given the dynamics of the P&L, are there any cost controls or offsets at the operating expense line item? How should we approach margins? Should we anticipate any expansion next year?
Karleen Oberton, CFO
Yes. If we compare Q2 to Q3, the decline in gross margin is mainly due to lower COVID revenue. We recorded over $70 million in COVID assay revenue in Q2, but that decreased to just under $30 million in Q3. This accounts for much of the drop, along with reduced gantry revenue, as our gantries in the Breast Health business contribute positively to our overall gross margins. Regarding operating margins, we believe that the approximately 29% operating margin we see in the second half of 2023 will be the lowest point, and we expect improvements as we progress through 2024. This growth will come from our base business revenue, and some of the cost pressures should ease over the year. We will provide more specific guidance during the call in November.
Operator, Operator
We will take our next question from Tim Daley with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.
Timothy Daley, Analyst
Great, thanks. So Steve, in the prepared remarks, you called out tough comps along with macro factors as the reason for not raising the long-term growth outlook. So just hoping to get a bit more color on this dynamic specifically to breast. I think the guidance gets to around $350 million or so for the fourth quarter. And just curious if that's like a clean run rate for quarterly revenues to think about? Or is that still impacted by the chips on the high end or maybe backlog work down on, I guess, on the upside case. Just curious about how we should kind of think about that moving forward as kind of a clean quarterly number we can grow from?
Karleen Oberton, CFO
Yes. I would say it's not an unreasonable number. It's probably still a little low from historical levels. I think prior to the chip supply headwind, we would, in each quarter, do roughly 1,100 to 1,200 gantries a quarter. This is below that level seen in Q3 and Q4. I think as we look into '24, I think we're still having recovery in the breast business as we believe our backlog will be worked through over the course of '24.
Timothy Daley, Analyst
All right. Helpful. And then just wanted to touch on Mobidiag. So the write-down equated to nearly a quarter of the acquisition price, just rough calculations. So can you give us an update on either, I guess, how the European dynamics are going? Or any update on the USA launch timeline of Novo?
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes. I think overall, as you know, we did about six acquisitions in COVID time, feeling really good that certainly five of them are delivering good growth for us right now. Mobi is just a little more work, frankly, to get it to the U.S. market. As we dug in deeper, a little more redesign is required of both the cartridge and the machine than what we got. We still like the technology. But as we dug in, it's just going to be further out, and that just affected the cash flows, combined with the interest rates and all of that. But we still are very excited about what that will bring. And frankly, the positive is in a weird way, it's going to hit a little later in our strat plan horizon, and the growth for the next few years looks so good anyway, but it will come in at a really good time for us.
Operator, Operator
We will take our next question from Tejas Savant with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Tejas Savant, Analyst
Hey guys. Good evening and thanks for the time. So Steve, Jack stole my question on your side hustles becoming your full-time hustles. And I'm glad to hear you stay at Hologic. My question is maybe one on M&A. I know you guys sort of mentioned being open to deals of all sizes in your prepared remarks. And I think Karleen called out the tuck-in pipeline also being pretty active here. But any color you can share on the pipeline for those larger needle-moving assets and, on a related note, you've called out the success you've had in Biotheranostics a bunch over the last few quarters. Could that be a precursor for us seeing you making a bigger push in cancer testing, perhaps not sort of the NGS-based testing that people often think about, but like PCR-based approaches?
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes, Tejas, I think the way to think about our M&A strategy right now and Karleen and I have been out with some of our largest shareholders over the last month-ish, and I think they've all reminded us that as you look at our fundamental growth rate and our margin profile, reminding us that that alone looks pretty damn good. And it's hard to find deals that are really going to enhance either our growth rate as it's accelerated or our margin structure. And so we are being cautious. And I would tell you, I think it's the beauty of a strong base business, so we are looking in those areas, but we sort of have that luxury right now of time on our side because of the base performance. So more likely to just stay more cautious here, continuing to drive the good deals that we've done. Obviously, with the Biotheranostics in the portfolio, it opens up the aperture to look at certain things, but nothing wildly dilutive by any stretch. And I think we like things that already have a little bit of an established revenue base like a Biotheranostics that we can then turbocharge with our operational efficiencies and our sales forces and our marketing in those areas. So I think it will be in those areas.
Tejas Savant, Analyst
Got it. Makes sense. And then a quick follow-up on GYN Surg. Any updates there on the hospital staffing situation just on a quarter-over-quarter basis? And you talked about sort of that low double-digit growth moderating here in fiscal '24. I mean, outside of tough comps, is there anything else to be thinking about? I think, Steve, in the past, you've talked about I think it was almost a quarter of that portfolio is now outside of MyoSure and NovaSure. And presumably, that's growing better than 7% for you guys. So just curious as to any color you can share there.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes. I think clearly, we figure there's probably earlier this year, some catch-up in procedures, this and that. But overall, I think there's still some of that to come. Hospital staffing is clearly tight. But I think in general, the hospitals are figuring out how to manage that. We're figuring out how to manage it and help again as, frankly, so many of our products add efficiencies, including things like Fluent. And so we're really kind of a go-to partner for the hospitals, and I think just feel really good about having both a now laparoscopic portfolio in addition to the hysteroscopic.
Karleen Oberton, CFO
Yes. I would just add on the Surgical business. We've really seen probably over the last four, five, six quarters, international turbocharge for the Surgical business, a small base, but really starting to take traction.
Operator, Operator
We will take our next question from Puneet Souda with Leerink Partners. Please go ahead.
Puneet Souda, Analyst
Steve. Thanks for taking the questions.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Thanks, Puneet.
Puneet Souda, Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. First, regarding Panther utilization, I know there have been discussions about the percentages of customers using two tests compared to three. I'm curious about the current customer landscape compared to a year ago. Are there specific customers who are utilizing the service more actively than others? I'd like to understand the differences between reference labs and hospital labs in terms of utilization. While I appreciate the average percentages you've shared before, I'm looking for more detailed insights into your current standing, especially as we have a clearer picture of utilization now that we're past COVID.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
The usage is quite widespread among all our hospital customers, smaller labs, and larger labs. It's notably broad-based in terms of both the range of services offered and the geographic distribution. Many of the Panthers we deployed during COVID were also internationally placed, and we are observing this trend as well. Therefore, it's challenging to specify that a significant portion of the increase comes from only a few customers or a specific region. The growth is truly widespread.
Puneet Souda, Analyst
Thank you. It's great to hear. If I could ask a more general question, this pertains to AI. You mentioned it briefly, but considering the momentum in MedTech regarding AI technologies, I’m curious about how you plan to leverage AI and where AI enhances Hologic's products. Could you provide some insights? There seems to be a lot of discussion around AI, and I would like to understand Hologic's perspective on it.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes. The key point is that we have seen significant advancements in machine learning. When considering both cytology and breast health, much of it revolves around pattern recognition. This is the technology that supports some of the computer-assisted design programs in our Mammography system, as well as our digital cytology, which has recently received approval in the EU. We are also working towards FDA clearance in the United States. Again, it's fundamentally about pattern recognition, which we are applying in the Breast Health area as well. Our established presence, expertise, and substantial sample size give us a solid foundation. While there are complexities involved in navigating regulatory processes and managing data, we are optimistic about the partnerships we've cultivated and our potential to excel, especially in these two domains.
Karleen Oberton, CFO
Yes. I would just add that we're also, even in our field service organization, using predictive analytics to predict certain part failures that allow us to coordinate with our customers to prevent unscheduled downtime, unscheduled visits, which is great for the customers and creates operational efficiency for us.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Thanks, Puneet.
Operator, Operator
We will take our next question from Anthony Petrone with the Mizuho Group. Please go ahead.
Anthony Petrone, Analyst
Thanks. And maybe a high-level one, Steve, and then a modeling question for Karleen. Maybe, Steve, you mentioned aspirational top line, 7% to 9%, but you called out macro headwinds to some extent here, both just geographically as well as operational to some of the businesses. If those were not there, is it feasible that the profile is a low double-digit sustainable year, right? The organic profile has been there, excluding COVID. So just maybe thoughts on if we didn't have some of these headwinds here, how could it have settled out in the next two to three years? And then I'll have a follow-up for Karleen on the model.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes. Anthony, I'd like to correct you. There was no reference at all of an aspirational number. We feel really good about the 5% to 7%. This year, we are delivering double that, is what we said, but we feel great about the 5% to 7% in this environment to be a company that people can count on for that.
Karleen Oberton, CFO
Yes. So I think when we think about the long-term growth rate, we talked about the 5% to 7%, we've talked about that all the divisions on a worldwide basis would be in that range and think about Breast Health kind of the lower end of the range, Diagnostics and Surgical to the higher end of the range. And as we talked about earlier, Molecular potentially even above that. So again, we feel good about all the businesses being in that growth range. We continue to see international being a bigger piece of the business growing faster than the U.S. And as I've talked about previously, we haven't given guidance for '24, but we believe that we're hitting the low mark of margins here at the back half of '23, and we'll see improvements as we work through that backlog and some of the inflationary pressures subside.
Operator, Operator
We will take our next question from Ryan Zimmerman with BTIG. Please go ahead.
Ryan Zimmerman, Analyst
Hey, thanks for squeezing me in on the questions here. I'll try and keep it as tight as I can. Just a quick point of clarification. If you look at next year's revenue growth, I think the Street is looking at about 4.1%. And it's like 3.7% organic. So is it unreasonable to think that we would be below your long-term guidance in capacity. Again, I appreciate what you said about the 5% to 7%, but I just want to make sure the Street is clear that at the low end, 5% to 7% or 5%, excuse me, is the right number relative to kind of where the Street is at today?
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes. We kind of run our business as opposed to the Street estimates. My hunch is there's a lot more COVID still in people's numbers for next year. I think what we feel really good about is the base.
Operator, Operator
We'll take our final question from Andrew Cooper with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Andrew Cooper, Analyst
Hey everybody. Thanks for the questions. I know we're at the end here. So I'll try to be quick. Maybe just one on sort of the chip supply and the visibility here. I fully understand you're not going to guide for '24 at this point. But when you sit here today on July 31 versus a quarter ago or a couple of quarters ago when you think about how comfortable you are in out quarters. Can you just give us a sense for sort of where you are from that visibility perspective, what you're hearing from the suppliers and how we should think about maybe the trajectory there and the sustainability of that backlog work down over the course of the end of this year and next year?
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes, we're incredibly comfortable with where we stand right now on the chip supply. So feel really good.
Karleen Oberton, CFO
Yes, we've deepened our business.
Operator, Operator
We'll take our final question from Andrew Brackmann with William Blair.
Andrew Brackmann, Analyst
Okay. Thanks. I'll keep it to one. But maybe just going back to Jack's question around USPSTF for cervical cancer guidelines. Steve, you mentioned Mammography guidelines. But I believe ACS updated their recommendations a few years ago, maybe just in the spirit of giving investors' confidence around whatever USPSTF said. Can you maybe just sort of talk about what you saw in the market following that decision, what you saw sort of from customers and their utilization patterns? Thanks.
Steve MacMillan, CEO
Yes. I think all of these changes create much more headline noise that investors pay attention to. Going back to May when the new Breast Health guidelines were released, our stock moved about 7% in just 20 minutes. Ultimately, these events have very little short-term impact and changes in healthcare happen slowly. Even when guidelines are altered, they capture headlines, but the real-world effects are minimal and gradual. Final question.
Operator, Operator
That concludes today's question-and-answer session. And this now concludes Hologic's third quarter fiscal 2023 earnings conference call. Have a good evening.