Earnings Call Transcript - HST Q2 2024

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Host Hotels & Resorts Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Jamie Marcus, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations.

Jamie Marcus, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, please note that many of the comments made today are considered to be forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, and we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. In addition, on today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information, such as FFO, adjusted EBITDAre and comparable hotel level results. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP information in yesterday's earnings press release and our 8-K filed with the SEC and in the supplemental financial information on our website at hosthotels.com. With me on today's call are Jim Risoleo, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Thank you, Jamie, and thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. In the second quarter, we delivered adjusted EBITDAre of $476 million and adjusted FFO per share of $0.57, which includes business interruption proceeds of $21 million for the Maui RevPAR and $9 million for Hurricane Ian. Adjusted EBITDAre grew 6.7% over the second quarter of last year and was up slightly, excluding business interruption proceeds. We delivered a year-over-year comparable hotel total RevPAR improvement of 50 basis points, underscoring the continued strength of out-of-room revenue while comparable hotel RevPAR was up 10 basis points. As a reminder, our second quarter operational results discussed today refer to our comparable hotel portfolio which excludes The Ritz-Carlton Naples and Alila Ventana Big Sur. Turning to quarterly results. Second quarter comparable hotel RevPAR faced headwinds from a slower-than-anticipated recovery in Maui and a continued shift in leisure demand to international destinations without a corresponding increase in international inbound demand. The year-over-year decline in Maui RevPAR had an actual drag of 250 basis points on our second quarter portfolio RevPAR. As discussed last quarter, this understates the true impact of the wildfires as we would have expected Maui to contribute 90 basis points to portfolio RevPAR growth in the second quarter given the renovation disruption at Fairmont Kea Lani in 2023 and the expected lift for 2024. As a result, the total estimated impact of the wildfires on second quarter RevPAR is 340 basis points. The lodging recovery in Maui has been slower than anticipated due to several factors. First, recovery and relief room demand has diminished without a commensurate level of leisure demand to offset the decline. Second, as a result of softer demand, airline capacity is still impacted. In July, total airline seats to the island were down 16% year-over-year. However, this has improved from down 19% in June and down 26% last September. And lastly, there remains a perception from would-be visitors that Maui is not ready to welcome guests back to the island. Our properties are collaborating with local tourism authorities and government officials to create a clear, well-supported marketing campaign that will launch this fall after the anniversary of the tragic fires. These state and local efforts are in addition to sales and marketing efforts by our managers. We are hopeful that this will be a turning point in the recovery trajectory, and consumers will once again feel comfortable returning to Maui. Turning to business mix. Group room revenue was up approximately 8% in the second quarter, driven by rate growth alongside demand growth. Our properties booked 315,000 group room nights in the year for the year, bringing our definite group room nights on the books for 2024 to 4 million rooms with total group revenue pace up 6% compared to the same time last year. Business transient revenue grew 4%, driven fairly evenly by demand and rate growth. Domestic leisure demand moderated as consumers opted for international destinations in Europe, Asia, and the Caribbean. Despite the volume decline, transient rates at our comparable resorts were up 51% compared to 2019, including our 3 Maui Resorts, underscoring the financial health of the affluent consumer. We believe the international travel imbalance remains a key driver of lower leisure demand at our properties. In fact, U.S. international outbound travel has grown from 110% of pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter of last year to 119% in the second quarter of this year. At the same time, U.S. international inbound travel remains below pre-pandemic levels at 88%, with a strong dollar, weaker global economic growth, and Visa delays continuing to present headwinds to the inbound recovery. Encouragingly, guests at our properties continue to spend during their stay. Food and beverage revenue drove total RevPAR growth in the second quarter, led by Banquet and Catering as well as improvement in outlet revenue on a per occupied room basis. Other revenue was down slightly due to the expected moderation of attrition and cancellation fees, but spa and golf revenues continued growing outside of Maui. As we highlighted last quarter, nearly 40% of our total revenue in 2023 came from food and beverage and other revenue, and our 2024 guidance assumes a similar proportion. We continue to believe that total RevPAR presents a more holistic picture of our underlying business as our portfolio has shifted towards more complex, higher-end properties which benefit from substantial out-of-room spend. Turning to capital allocation. Yesterday, we announced the acquisition of fee simple interest in the 234-room 1 Hotel Central Park for approximately $265 million in cash. The acquisition price represents an 11.1x EBITDA multiple or a cap rate of approximately 8.1% on 2024 estimated results. The property is expected to rank among our top 10 assets based on estimated full year 2024 results with an expected RevPAR of $545, TRevPAR of $735, and EBITDA per key of over $100,000, further improving the quality of our portfolio. The LEED certified luxury property opened in 2015. It has 25 suites and a recently added 5-key penthouse that offers large terraces and unparalleled views of Central Park as well as the presidential suite. The lobby level features Jams, a 3-meal restaurant and bar affiliated with James Beard Award winner, Jonathan Waxman. The second floor offers 2,000 square feet of contiguous and flexible meeting space as well as a naturally lit fitness center and a business center. The 1 Hotel Central Park will further diversify our presence in New York City, which is one of the top RevPAR markets in the country. It will also provide us with exposure to the luxury guest in Upper Manhattan, the top RevPAR submarket in the city. We also completed the previously announced acquisition of the 450-room Ritz Carlton O'ahu Turtle Bay yesterday. The resort is located on the North Shore of O'ahu, Hawaii, and includes a 49-acre land parcel entitled for development. The $630 million resort acquisition price is net of key money and represents a 16.3x EBITDA multiple or a cap rate of approximately 5.3% on 2024 estimated results. Based on preliminary 2025 underwriting and the conversion to Ritz-Carlton, the acquisition price represents an approximately 13.5x EBITDA multiple or a cap rate of approximately 6.7%. We expect this resort to stabilize between approximately 10x to 12x EBITDA in the 2027 to 2029 time frame. Due to the timing of the acquisitions, the 1 Hotel Central Park and The Ritz-Carlton, O'ahu, Turtle Bay are not yet included in our comparable hotel guidance metrics. They will be included starting in the third quarter. These 2 acquisitions are expected to generate $22 million of adjusted EBITDA for our ownership period, which is included in our adjusted EBITDAre and FFO guidance for 2024. Looking back on our transaction activity in 2024, we have acquired $1.5 billion of iconic and irreplaceable real estate at a blended 13.6x EBITDA multiple based on estimated 2024 results, which represents over $100 million of estimated full year EBITDA that we expect to grow as the assets stabilize. In May of 2023, we laid out a path to $2 billion of EBITDA at our Investor Day. With these acquisitions, we are halfway toward our target of $3 billion of acquisitions at a lower blended EBITDA multiple than we assumed at that time. Since 2018, we have acquired $4.9 billion of assets at a 13.6x EBITDA multiple and disposed of $5 billion of assets at a 17x EBITDA multiple, including $976 million of estimated foregone capital expenditures. This accretive capital recycling allows us to grow our 2023 adjusted EBITDAre by 6% above 2019 levels. Adjusted EBITDAre per key by 18% and NAREIT FFO per share by 13% and is what we believe will allow our portfolio to outperform over the long term. After adjusting for post-quarter transactions, we have $1.4 billion of total available liquidity and net leverage of 2.7x. During the quarter, we also repurchased 2.8 million shares of stock at an average price of $17.81 per share through our common share repurchase program, bringing our total repurchases for the quarter to $50 million. Since 2022, we have repurchased $258 million of stock at an average repurchase price of $16.26 per share. Turning to portfolio reinvestment. Our 2024 capital expenditure guidance range is $500 million to $600 million, which reflects approximately $220 million to $260 million of investment for redevelopment, repositioning, and ROI projects. Included in the ROI projects is the Hyatt transformational capital program, which is on track and slightly under budget thus far. We received $2 million of operating guarantees in the second quarter to offset business disruptions related to the Hyatt transformational capital program, and we expect to benefit from an additional $5 million this year, bringing the total operating guarantees to $9 million in 2024. In addition to the capital expenditure range, this year, we expect to spend $50 million to $60 million on the 40-unit residential condo development at our Four Seasons Resort Orlando at Walt Disney World Resort. The development is well underway and marketing efforts began in July. We anticipate the formal sales launch to begin in the fourth quarter. More broadly, we have completed 24 transformational renovations since 2018, which we believe provide meaningful tailwinds for our portfolio. Of the 14 hotels that have stabilized post-renovation operations to date, the average RevPAR index share gain is 7 points, which is well in excess of our targeted gain of 3 to 5 points. Earlier this week, we released our 2024 corporate responsibility report, which details our CR program and strategy, our ESG initiatives and our industry-leading accomplishments. Additionally, the report provides an update on our performance and progress towards our 2030 environmental and social targets, which are mapped to our aspirational vision of becoming net positive by 2050. The CR report can be found on the Corporate Responsibility section of our website at hosthotels.com. Wrapping up, we believe Host is well positioned to continue to outperform. We remain optimistic about the state of travel today despite the softer-than-expected recovery in Maui and moderating domestic leisure transient demand. While we would certainly prefer to see more leisure demand in the U.S. versus abroad, it is encouraging to see consumers continue to prioritize spending on travel and experiences. The pendulum will eventually swing back to domestic destinations. And when it does, we believe Host is well positioned to benefit due to our geographically diversified, iconic and irreplaceable portfolio as well as the recent reinvestments we have made and continue to make in our properties. Host is uniquely positioned. And as we have demonstrated, we are able to access many capital allocation levers to create shareholder value. With that, I will now turn the call over to Sourav to discuss additional operational detail and our revised 2024 outlook.

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Building on Jim's comments, I will go into detail on our second quarter operations, updated 2024 guidance and our balance sheet. Starting with business mix. Overall transient revenue was down 5% compared to the second quarter of 2023, driven by softer-than-anticipated demand in Maui. We estimate that Maui had a 410 basis point impact to transient revenue in the quarter. Transient rates at our resorts remained resilient at 51% above the second quarter of 2019. Additionally, food and beverage outlet revenue per occupied room grew at both resorts and non-resorts. Outside of Maui, golf and spa revenues continued to grow due in part to our recent ROI investments in our spa and fitness facilities. We believe the rate strength at our resorts and continued growth of out-of-room spending indicates consumers' ongoing willingness to spend on travel and experiences. Looking at recent holidays, excluding Maui, Memorial Day weekend and July 4 outperformed our expectations due to strong last-minute transient bookings in the weeks leading up to the holiday weekends. Looking forward and excluding Maui, Labor Day transient revenue pace is up 9% compared to the third quarter of last year driven by occupancy. Business transient revenue was 4% above the second quarter of 2023, driven fairly evenly by increases in room nights and rate as business transient demand continued its slow and steady recovery. Demand growth was market-specific with certain hotels in Chicago and San Francisco, showing double-digit year-over-year growth in business transient demand. Encouragingly, Boston and New York both exceeded 2019 levels of business transient demand in the second quarter. Turning to Group. Revenue grew 8% in the second quarter, driven by 5% rate growth. Approximately half of the growth came from San Diego, Phoenix and Nashville with the balance coming from our other top markets. For full year 2024, we have approximately 4 million definite group room nights on the books, representing a 9% increase since the first quarter, keeping us ahead of same time last year. Group rate on the book is up 4% and total group revenue pace is up 6% over the same time last year, driven by a particularly strong third quarter and the continued focus on growing banquet and catering contribution. We remain encouraged by the ongoing strength of group business as evidenced by strong revenue pace, banquet and catering growth and double-digit citywide room night pace in key markets such as Nashville, New Orleans, San Antonio, San Diego, Seattle and Washington, D.C. Shifting gears to margins. Second quarter comparable hotel EBITDA margin of 32.6% was 10 basis points below last year, driven by increases in wages, benefits and fixed expenses as well as impacts from Maui. We received $21 million of business interruption proceeds from the Maui wildfires, which provided a 135 basis point benefit to the comparable portfolio. Excluding the business interruption proceeds, operations in Maui had a 60 basis point impact to EBITDA margin. Despite these headwinds, our controllable expenses, which include laundry, linens and guest supplies were flat versus the second quarter of 2023 due to net operational improvements across our portfolio. Turning to our revised outlook for 2024. The midpoint of our guidance contemplates a slower-than-anticipated recovery from the wildfires in Maui and moderating domestic leisure transient demand, primarily driven by the international demand imbalance. At the low end, we have assumed slower group pickup and softer leisure transient demand. And at the high end, we have assumed a faster recovery at our Maui resorts and increased transient pickup. For full year 2024, we anticipate comparable hotel RevPAR growth of between negative 1% and positive 1% over 2023. We expect comparable hotel EBITDA margins to be down 110 basis points year-over-year at the low end of our guidance to down 60 basis points at the high end. At the midpoint of our guidance range, we anticipate comparable hotel total RevPAR growth of 1.2% and flat comparable hotel RevPAR compared to 2023. Looking at the drivers of the RevPAR midpoint decline, approximately 90% of the reduction is related to transient business as group remains strong in the second half of the year, particularly in the third quarter. We estimate the Maui wildfires will impact full year comparable hotel total RevPAR by 120 basis points and RevPAR by 180 basis points. Excluding business interruption proceeds, we expect adjusted EBITDAre to be impacted by $75 million to $80 million relative to our pre-fire estimate. In terms of RevPAR growth cadence, we expect comparable hotel RevPAR growth to be slightly positive in the second half of the year, driven by low single-digit growth in the fourth quarter. We expect a comparable hotel EBITDA margin midpoint of 29.3%, which is 90 basis points below 2023. We estimate a 30 basis point impact to full year EBITDA margin from Maui relative to our pre-fire estimate, a 40 basis point impact from insurance and property taxes and a 110 basis point impact from wage and benefit rate increases, which is partially offset by a 90 basis point benefit from operational improvements. Our revised 2024 full year adjusted EBITDAre midpoint is $1.645 billion, a $25 million or a 1.5% decrease over the prior midpoint. This includes an estimated $62 million contribution from operations at the Ritz-Carlton Naples and $11 million from operations at Alila Ventana Big Sur, an increase of $5 million compared to our prior guidance. As a reminder, The Ritz-Carlton Naples and Alila Ventana Big Sur are excluded from our comparable hotel set for the full year 2024 forecast. Our adjusted EBITDA and FFO guidance also includes an estimated $22 million contribution from the 1 Hotel Central Park and The Ritz-Carlton O'ahu Turtle Bay for our ownership period. Turning to our balance sheet and liquidity position. Our weighted average maturity is 4.7 years at a weighted average interest rate of 4.9% after adjusting for investing and financing activities completed subsequent to quarter end. As Jim noted, we currently have $1.4 billion in total available liquidity, which includes $242 million of FF&E reserves. Our quarter-end leverage ratio adjusted for post-quarter transactions was 2.7x, and we have $970 million of availability on our credit facility. In July, we paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, demonstrating our commitment to returning capital to stockholders. As always, future dividends are subject to approval by the company's Board of Directors. We will continue to be strategic and opportunistic in managing our balance sheet and liquidity position as we move through the remainder of 2024. To conclude, we remain optimistic about the future of travel as the headwinds facing our portfolio are not indicative of a weakening consumer. As Maui recovers and the international leisure demand imbalance finds equilibrium, our renovated portfolio of geographically diverse properties is well positioned to benefit. With that, we would be happy to take your questions. To ensure we have time to address as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to 1 question.

Operator, Operator

One moment, please, while we poll for questions. The first question today is coming from David Katz from Jefferies.

David Katz, Analyst

I appreciate it. Jim, congrats on all of the acquisitions to everybody. Can you just talk about the possibility, the prospects, probability, boundaries around any further acquisitions that we might see this year or even early next from what you can tell today?

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Yes, David. Let me start by saying that we are very happy with the three acquisitions we made this year. Real estate is a long-term business, and we aim to acquire assets that will grow EBITDA over time. Each of these properties is unique, and we are fortunate to have the financial strength and relationships to act when opportunities like Turtle Bay arise. In a recent press release, we announced that Ritz Turtle Bay in O'ahu is now part of The Ritz-Carlton system, effective from when we closed on the hotel yesterday. This property is special for many reasons, including the $0.5 million per key that was invested. Ritz-Carlton took the hotel without a tip, so we expect significant upside beyond our initial projections, which were based on a 2025 pro forma with a 13.5x EBITDA multiple and a 6.7% cap rate. We believe this property has ample growth potential. Our underwriting has not included any additional EBITDA from the residences currently being developed by another developer on the site, nor from our 49-acre parcel of land. This was a rare chance to acquire that hotel, and we are well-positioned to seize it. The same goes for Central Park, which we also announced recently. Now, regarding luxury assets, we began focusing on this area in 2017. Luxury hotels, which have a RevPAR of over $500, have significantly outperformed upper upscale hotels and other segments in the lodging industry over extended timeframes. From 2019 to 2023, luxury RevPAR grew at a CAGR of 4.7%, compared to just 1.3% for upper upscale. We expect to continue driving strong performance from our acquisitions, leading to increased EBITDA growth and free cash flow, which will enable us to reinvest in our portfolio or consider other opportunities. As for your question, we do not anticipate making additional acquisitions this year or early next year, though unexpected opportunities can arise. Our primary focus now is on integrating the three properties we acquired into our systems and asset management platform. We are pleased with the results from the 24 transformational projects we've completed so far, with the 14 stabilized properties improving their yield index significantly above our expectations, positioning us well for the future. We are also considering additional stock buybacks, with $742 million remaining in our repurchase program. In the second quarter, we repurchased $50 million worth of stock at $17.81 per share. Since 2020, we've bought back $400 million at an average of $16.35 per share, and we are willing to enter the market for our own shares, especially given the current trading price.

David Katz, Analyst

Understood. Thanks for the answer. Appreciate it.

Operator, Operator

The next question is coming from Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley.

Stephen Grambling, Analyst

Okay. We will move on to Chris Darling from Green Street.

Chris Darling, Analyst

Jim, maybe following up on that last question actually. I mean, you mentioned acquisitions are unlikely in the near term and pivoting instead to deploying capital through whether ROI projects or as share repurchases. With that in mind, I wonder what role incremental dispositions might play in pursuit of that strategy and whether you're thinking about testing the market in any regard.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Chris, thanks for the question. Yes, we have explored disposition pricing recently and made a decision that really, given that we are under no pressure whatsoever to dispose of assets, and we will only do so if we believe that the pricing is fair relative to our hold value, the market dynamic just isn’t there today. The cost of debt is still prohibitive from a valuation perspective. We’ve been in a unique position to be able to transact, given our balance sheet, and there really aren’t any other players out there that are in that position. So we’ll keep an eye on the market as we always do. And if we think there are opportunities to continue to enhance the overall growth profile of the portfolio, by disposing of assets, that’s certainly something we will consider going forward.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from Chris Woronka from Deutsche Bank.

Chris Woronka, Analyst

So Jim, you now have 3 of the 1 Hotels in the portfolio. I know there's a few more out there. So the question is kind of what's your longer-term vision for those hotels? Obviously, you've done very well in Miami in a pretty short period of time. I know they're managed, I know the entity that manages them. But is there a longer-term play there in terms of some other co-branding or something else you might do to kind of enhance the longer-term value of those?

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Well, we are really happy being an owner of 1 Hotels, Barry Sternlicht, Starwood Capital, we’ve always got Barry as an innovator. I mean, he started with the W brand, and I think 1 is really an extension of W. Our performance in Miami has been really quite incredible. We bought that at, I think, roughly a 13x multiple in 2018. And in 2023, we were around 10x, 10x, 10.5x, something like that. In 2022, we actually got down to sub 8x. So we like the performance of the brand. We like where he’s heading with it, where SH Hotels is heading around the globe and elsewhere for distribution. But it’s not anything that we’ve had conversations about co-branding or anything of that nature. So we just said – we think they do a great job, and we have a great relationship with them, and we hope that we can continue to expand that relationship going forward.

Operator, Operator

The next question is coming from Dori Kesten from Wells Fargo.

Dori Kesten, Analyst

As you are putting together guidance this quarter, what were the aspects of the guide that you were more uniformly agreeing upon internally versus which required a more vigorous discussion? We're just trying to get a sense of how derisked the second half of the year is at this point.

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes, I believe our confidence in our guidance stems from the strong group booking pace for the second half. We secured 241,000 rooms in the second quarter for the latter half of the year, with about 143,000 for the third quarter, which represents 68%. Thus, our pace for Q3 is actually in the high single digits, and we feel very positive about group bookings in the third quarter. However, we did adjust our expectations for the fourth quarter due to the impact of election week. Generally, election weeks tend to see a decrease in group bookings, and this year we're noticing a decline even after the election week. Additionally, we're observing a slower recovery in Maui and a lack of short-term leisure bookings in the second quarter, which we have taken into account for the latter half as well. These factors influenced our guidance considerations.

Dori Kesten, Analyst

Just a quick clarification, Sourav. So Q3 group pace is up high single digits. So what transient, like on the books now for Q3, what is transient and down?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes. Transient, we look at a room night perspective, and transient pace it really is in terms of pickup happens around a 30-day window. So we have derisked effectively the decline that we saw in Q2 proportionately in Q3.

Operator, Operator

The next question will be from Michael Bellisario from Baird.

Michael Bellisario, Analyst

To focus on Maui a little bit. Can you maybe help us understand the guests that are coming to your properties? Are they different customers than a year ago, pre-pandemic? Are they coming through different channels? Also, what are the brands doing to help stimulate demand? And then just lastly, can you give us some examples of the planned marketing initiatives that you mentioned?

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Yes, we are exploring new channels such as different wholesalers and Costco Travel to bring customers back to Maui. The wildfires were a tragic event, and while we are encouraged that residents are finding permanent or semi-permanent housing, our hotel on the west side saw a drastic reduction in rooms rented by the Red Cross and FEMA, going from over 200 in the first quarter to just 13 in Q2, without a comparable increase in visitors. There are several factors contributing to this situation on the island. As we approach the first anniversary of the wildfires, which holds significant meaning in Hawaiian culture, the Governor of Hawaii and the Mayor of Maui are planning a marketing campaign in Los Angeles to promote that Maui is open for business, given that 80% of the local economy relies on tourism. We support and appreciate the necessary steps being taken to bring customers back, and believe progress is being made. Additionally, we are collaborating with other hotel owners and the Hotel Association on a coordinated marketing campaign to promote Maui. We're also individually marketing our three properties—the Hyatt Regency, the Andaz, and the Fairmont Kea Lani—from mid-September onward. One challenge we face is the reduction in airlift to Maui, down about 16% compared to the same period in 2019, and an additional 6% drop from last year. We are encouraging airlines to increase capacity on their Maui routes while also working to attract more customers. On a positive note, we recently completed major renovations at the Hyatt Regency and the Fairmont Kea Lani, and we have undertaken substantial updates at the Andaz. All our properties are ready and open for business as we coordinate with local authorities and other hotel owners to promote Maui from mid to late September.

Operator, Operator

The next question will be from Shaun Kelley from Bank of America.

Shaun Kelley, Analyst

Jim, I want to go back to an earlier question or maybe for Sourav, actually, I want to go back to an earlier question on just the underwriting for leisure transient in the back half. Sourav, if I caught it correctly, I think you said basically, the trends you saw in leisure transient for Q2, you're extrapolating that trend as sort of your baseline for 3Q, did I catch that correctly? And then, secondarily, just can you remind us of the weights of Q3 and Q4 as it relates to some of the seasonality here, particularly how dependent is Host in the portfolio now on decent leisure in Q4? So did you derisk that, did you underwrite that the same? And should there be anything we need to worry about as we get pretty late in the year, particularly around the holidays?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes, you did hear that correctly. We effectively took the trends that we saw for leisure transient in the second quarter and applied that for the rest of the year. Obviously, the mix of leisure in Q3 is a little bit different than Q4. But when you actually look at sort of the 300 basis point decline in the midpoint of guidance, what I would say is about 15% is as a result of Q2, the remainder is second half, and that’s effectively evenly split between Q3 and Q4.

Operator, Operator

The next question is coming from Duane Pfennigwerth from Evercore ISI.

Duane Pfennigwerth, Analyst

Just on cost programs. I assume your expense budgets at the asset level were based in part on your revenue outlook? And I just have a basic question. Are there cost takeouts that can happen? And do those cost reductions typically have a lag as revenue softens?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

It’s always obviously an asset by asset in terms of how expenses are managed. And obviously, you have certain fixed costs. The variable costs really move with volume. For the most part, there isn’t a meaningful lag with that variable cost, it happens and it will show up and sort of the lag is maybe a week or two, but by month-end, the true-up occurs. So by the time you’re seeing the numbers, whatever costs are being taken out or being managed relative to volume shows up pretty real time.

Operator, Operator

The next question is coming from Smedes Rhodes from Citi.

Smedes Rhodes, Analyst

I wanted to revisit your guidance and exclude the acquired EBITDA for a moment. It appears that there's nearly a $50 million downward revision. You mentioned that Maui is expected to have a 180 basis point negative impact on your portfolio for the year, which seems steeper than the 130 basis points indicated in the first quarter. Given these two points, is the majority of that approximately $47 million decline related to Maui, with only a minor decrease in your RevPAR? Could you please elaborate on the details? This downward revision seems significant considering your expectations from a quarter ago.

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Sure, Smedes. I think what will be easy is if I just walk through where our midpoint of previous guidance was at $1.670 billion and bridge that to our current guidance of $1.645 billion. So you take the $1.670 billion, you take out $64 million of comp EBITDA, excluding Nashville. Of that $64 million, about 50% of that $64 million is attributable to Maui and San Francisco. The remainder is primarily made up of 4 markets, I would say, it's D.C., Orlando, Phoenix, and L.A. And then you add $5 million for improvement of our forecast for Nashville. You would add another $5 million for Alila Ventana, which opened up sooner than we had expected. And then you add $22 million for the 1 Hotel Central Park in Turtle Bay and then another $7 million for higher interest income, because we obviously did the $600 million bond deal, had more cash reserves and higher interest rates that allowed for that. Once you total that up, you get to the $1.645 billion. But what I would say is important to remember that certainly for 2024, the $1.645 billion guidance, but it's important to remember what the run rate really is once you really adjust for all the puts and takes. So if you take again the $1.645 billion midpoint guidance that we have and you remove all the business interruption that we got this year, which is equal to $40 million, you would add an additional $49 million for Turtle Bay and 1 Hotel Central Park because obviously, we don't have the full year baked in, in 2024, you would add another $13 million for Nashville. And as we said in our prepared remarks, another $75 million to $80 million for Maui and another $5 million for Ventana. So the true run rate on a stabilized basis, if you will, is $1.750 billion. So hopefully, that answers your question and then some.

Smedes Rhodes, Analyst

Yes, that helps. And then just, Jim, you said at the beginning in your opening remarks that group revenues were up 8%, business transient was up 4% and that leisure moderated. Can you share what the percentage increase or decrease was in leisure?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Sorry, are you asking for the leisure demand increase in Q2?

Smedes Rhodes, Analyst

You mentioned at the beginning of the call that group revenue was up 8% in the quarter and business transient was up 4%. Can you tell me what the percentage for leisure was? It was described as moderating, but I would like to know the specific percentage. I believe you were referring to revenues, correct?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes. Our overall – and remember, we used our resorts as a proxy. Our rate still held firm, overall resort revenue or our lease revenue was slightly down as volumes, obviously, as what Jim was referring to, have moderated. But our rates held up, which are still 51% above 2019. I believe in Q1, that number was 52%.

Operator, Operator

The next question will come from Robin Farley from UBS.

Robin Farley, Analyst

I wanted to revisit your comments regarding the growth of total RevPAR compared to room RevPAR. Marriott mentioned a decrease in ancillary spending, while MGM noted fewer restaurant covers and pressure on entertainment ticket prices. I'm curious if the rise you're experiencing in ancillary revenues is due to an increase in your group mix, leading to higher banquet revenues, while the transient segment is softening on the ancillary side. I'm just trying to understand why your trend appears somewhat different from what others have indicated.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Sure, Robin. I believe our trend appears somewhat distinct due to the characteristics of our assets and the demographic of our customers. Our customers are primarily affluent, reflecting the nature of our properties, and they continue to spend. Unfortunately, we noticed a significant increase in outbound travel during the quarter. However, regarding spending at our resorts, both those and non-resorts, we observed that food and beverage revenue per occupied room rose approximately 2% compared to the same quarter last year and about 1% compared to the first quarter. Encouragingly, as Sourav mentioned earlier, we experienced an increase in spa and golf revenues, with spa revenues up about 11% in this quarter over the same quarter last year, excluding Maui, and golf revenues up 5%. We're witnessing sustained spending, with leisure transient rates 50% higher than in the second quarter of 2019. Additionally, there is no indication of any slowdown on the group side, as banquet revenues have increased compared to the same time last year. I believe it’s a different mix, a distinct property type, and a different customer base.

Robin Farley, Analyst

Great. That's helpful. Maybe just one follow-up clarification is can you remind us where your group mix, where you think that will end up this year and where it was in 2019?

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

It’s going to be pretty similar to where it was in 2019, about 65 – about 35% group, roughly 61% transient and the balance contract.

Operator, Operator

The next question will be from Stephen Grambling from Morgan Stanley.

Stephen Grambling, Analyst

As a follow-up on the question regarding resort RevPAR, you mentioned that for the quarter, ADRs were flat and occupancy was down. Did this change during the quarter? It seems like part of the feedback we're getting is particularly focused on June and July. I understand this is a somewhat narrower view, but I'm trying to grasp the pricing dynamics within leisure or resorts as we look toward the second half of the year.

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Not necessarily, because for Memorial Day and July 4, we performed better than expected. It was somewhat scattered across the quarter on certain weekends, but there wasn't a noticeable trend during the quarter regarding pricing or demand, as the holidays actually exceeded our expectations.

Operator, Operator

The next question will be from Bill Crow from Raymond James.

Bill Crow, Analyst

Jim, in a declining economic environment, we are noticing an increase in job cuts and unemployment. What should be the first indicator we look for in the lodging industry? Is it a decline in leisure demand, group attrition, or lower food and beverage sales? What should we be vigilant about if the economy begins to slow rapidly?

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Weekend leisure at the lower end of the chain scale is showing a clear separation today between the strong high-end consumer, who is somewhat moderating, and the low-end consumer. This distinction is evident in the earnings reports released this quarter. From our perspective, we have discussed our leisure transient rate and the trend in our out-of-room spending, and we feel optimistic about consumer behavior. This quarter, it appears that high-end leisure travelers are heading abroad, particularly to Europe, the Caribbean, and Japan. We view this as a moment in time, similar to when leisure travelers contributed to the recovery after COVID due to "revenge travel." Last year, when Europe reopened without restrictions, we witnessed some of this in Europe, and we're seeing it again this year. This surprised us a bit, considering we have examined the data closely. U.S. outbound travel is roughly at 120% of 2019 levels, which translates into 6 million additional outbound trips. That’s a significant increase, with people spending money, although we haven't seen a corresponding rise in international inbound travel. TSA checkpoints reassure us that travel is still ongoing, and we reached a record of about 3 million travelers in one week this past July. We believe this current trend is temporary, and the situation will eventually balance itself, positioning us well for future performance.

Bill Crow, Analyst

Great. If I could ask Sourav, a follow-up or a second question. Sourav, we've got a lot of flavor negotiations coming up towards the end of this year, and I'm not going to ask you about those. But how do you think about wage and benefit increases as you look into 2025 across the portfolio?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes. As we look into next year, it’s a little bit early to tell, obviously. I mean the managers are working through the budgets right now. And we obviously don’t have those submitted until much later this – later part of the year. However, just given that inflation has come under control, to some extent, we would expect it to be lower for next year. How much lower? We will probably have a better idea once we get further down the year, I would say probably October, November in terms of what that’s looking like. But would think it’s more in the 3% to 4% range or even better than that, depending on what inflation trends look like?

Operator, Operator

That's all the time we have for questions. Today, I would now like to hand the call back to Jim Risoleo for closing remarks.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Thank you again for joining us today. We always appreciate the opportunity to discuss our quarterly results with you, and we look forward to seeing many of you at conferences in the coming months. Enjoy the rest of your summer.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.