Earnings Call Transcript - HST Q3 2024

Jamie Marcus, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, please note that many of the comments made today are considered to be forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. As described in our filings with the SEC, these statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause future results to differ from those expressed, and we are not obligated to publicly update or revise these forward-looking statements. In addition, on today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial information, such as FFO, adjusted EBITDAre and comparable hotel level results. You can find this information together with reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP information in yesterday's earnings press release and our 8-K filed with the SEC and in the supplemental financial information on our website at hosthotels.com. With me on today's call are Jim Risoleo, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jim.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Thank you, Jamie, and thanks to everyone for joining us this morning. Before we turn to the quarter, I want to take a moment to acknowledge the devastating effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which made landfall in late September and early October. We were deeply saddened to see the loss of life and damage the hurricanes brought. And while many of our hotels were impacted, we are very fortunate that the employees at our properties remained safe throughout the storms. In response to the urgent needs of those impacted, we partnered with the American Red Cross, World Central Kitchen, Team Rubicon, Community Foundation Tampa Bay and Feeding Tampa Bay to deliver vital disaster relief support. Due to evacuation mandates and the loss of commercial power from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, four of our properties were temporarily closed, three of which reopened within 10 days. The most significant damage occurred at The Don CeSar, which remains closed to guests. We are still evaluating the remediation and disruption impacts of the storms, and we currently expect a phased reopening of The Don CeSar beginning towards the end of the first quarter of 2025. Please note that The Don CeSar is still included in our comparable hotel results in the third quarter, but it has been removed from our comparable hotel set in our full year guidance. It is worth noting that our resilience investments at the Ritz-Carlton, Naples paid off during both hurricanes. As a reminder, during the remediation following Hurricane Ian, we opportunistically enhanced the resiliency of the property by elevating critical equipment, improving dry flood-proofing measures and accelerating future building envelope waterproofing replacements. As a result of these investments, we saw minimal water intrusion inside the resort despite a storm surge comparable to that of Hurricane Ian, and we reopened the resort seven days after commercial power was restored. Following the success of these enhanced resiliency measures, we will continue to prioritize these types of investments across our portfolio over the near term. For additional details on our resiliency investments, please see our 2024 Corporate Responsibility Report, which details our CR program and strategy, our ESG initiatives and our industry-leading accomplishments. It can be found on the Corporate Responsibility section of our website at hosthotels.com. Turning to our results in the third quarter, we delivered adjusted EBITDAre of $324 million and adjusted FFO per share of $0.36. As a reminder, in the third quarter of last year, our adjusted EBITDAre benefited from $54 million of business interruption insurance proceeds, which led to a 10% decrease in our adjusted EBITDAre this quarter. Excluding the business interruption proceeds, our adjusted EBITDAre would have been up over 5% and adjusted FFO per share would have been up 9%. We delivered a year-over-year comparable hotel total RevPAR improvement of 3.1%, underscoring the continued strength of out-of-room revenue, while comparable hotel RevPAR was up 80 basis points. As a reminder, the operational results discussed today refer to our comparable hotel portfolio for the third quarter, which excludes the Ritz-Carlton, Naples and Alila Ventana Big Sur. Our third quarter comparable hotel RevPAR came in slightly better than we expected despite weather impacts from the hurricanes in Florida during the last week of the quarter. While Maui is recovering, the year-over-year decline in RevPAR for Maui had an actual drag of 170 basis points in the third quarter. As we have discussed over the past few quarters, this understates the true impact of the wildfires as we would have expected Maui to contribute 20 basis points to portfolio RevPAR growth in the third quarter given the transformational renovation at Fairmont Kea Lani in 2023 and the expected lift for 2024. As a result, the total estimated impact of the wildfires on third quarter RevPAR is approximately 190 basis points. Following the anniversary of the tragic wildfires, we supported our managers, local tourism authorities and government officials in promoting the return of visitors to Maui. Our three hotels launched the Ho'okipa marketing campaign. Ho'okipa means the spirit of hospitality in Hawaiian. The marketing efforts included social media and TV ads, digital displays and e-mail campaign and videos from each of our resorts that aired in Southern California during the month of September. Additionally, the Governor of Hawaii, the Mayor of Maui and the Head of the Hawaii Lodging and Tourist Association met with longtime supporters of Hawaii, the Los Angeles Rams and key travel partners across the greater Los Angeles market to communicate the importance of tourism for Maui's economic recovery. The Rams have supported Hawaii over the years, and part of the governor's trip was aimed at formalizing the relationship between the two going forward. Thus far, the sales and marketing efforts are paying off. Thanksgiving and festive revenue pace for our three Maui resorts is up over 35% and over 65%, respectively, compared to the same time last year. We are encouraged that Maui is beginning to show improvements on its road to recovery. Moving on to business mix. Group room night revenue was up 1% in the third quarter driven by rate as group room nights were flat due to the recovery in group rooms in Maui that were booked in the third quarter of 2023. Our property booked 212,000 group room nights in the year for the year, bringing our definite group room nights on the books for 2024 to 4.2 million rooms with total group revenue pace of approximately 5% compared to the same time last year. Business transient revenue grew 5% in the third quarter as strong rate growth was driven by market and customer mix shifts. Turning to leisure. The unfavorable international demand imbalance held steady in the third quarter. Transient room nights sold at our comparable resorts were up 4% in the third quarter, driven by Maui. In addition, leisure rates remained resilient during the third quarter. Transient rates at our comparable resorts were up approximately 50% compared to 2019, which is in line with recent quarters, continuing to underscore the financial health of the affluent consumer. Out of room spending trends this quarter also continued to demonstrate the strength of group and affluent consumers. Comparable hotel total RevPAR grew over 3% in the third quarter, which represents the largest spread to RevPAR growth in six quarters. As a reminder, in 2023, nearly 40% of our total revenue came from food and beverage and other revenue, and our 2024 guidance assumes a similar proportion. We continue to believe that total RevPAR represents a more holistic picture of our underlying business as our portfolio continues to benefit from substantial out-of-room spend. Turning to capital allocation. During the quarter, we repurchased 3.5 million shares of stock at an average price of $16.33 per share through our common share repurchase program, bringing our total repurchases for the quarter to $57 million. Since 2022, we have repurchased $315 million of stock at an average repurchase price of $16.27 per share, and we have $685 million of remaining capacity under our share repurchase program. Looking back on our transaction activity this year, we acquired $1.5 billion of iconic and irreplaceable real estate and a blended 13.6 times EBITDA multiple, based on estimated 2024 results. Thus far, the 1 Hotel Nashville and the Embassy Suites by Hilton Nashville Downtown, the 1 Hotel Central Park and The Ritz-Carlton O'ahu, Turtle Bay are performing in line with our underwriting expectations. The brand and management transition at The Ritz-Carlton O'ahu, Turtle Bay is going well. And we expect continued growth as awareness of the rebranded resort spreads. Turning to portfolio reinvestment, our updated 2024 capital expenditure guidance range is $485 million to $580 million, which includes approximately $225 million to $255 million of investment for redevelopment, repositioning and ROI projects, $225 million to $275 million for renewal and replacement projects and $35 million to $15 million for property damage reconstruction. Included in the ROI projects is the Hyatt Transformational Capital Program, which is on track and slightly under budget so far. We received $2 million of operating guarantees in the third quarter to offset business disruptions related to the Hyatt Transformational Capital Program, and we expect to receive an additional $3 million this year, bringing the total operating guarantees to $9 million in 2024. In addition to the capital expenditure range, this year, we expect to spend $50 million to $60 million on the 40-unit residential condo development at our Four Seasons Resort Orlando at Walt Disney World Resort. The development is well underway and marketing efforts began in July. We anticipate the formal sales launch to begin later this month, with closings to begin in the fourth quarter of 2025. More broadly, we have completed 24 transformational renovations since 2018, which we believe provide meaningful tailwinds for our portfolio. Of the 15 hotels that have stabilized post renovation operations to-date, the average RevPAR index share gain is over seven points, which is well in excess of our targeted gain of three to five points. Wrapping up, we continue to believe that Host is well positioned, due to our investment-grade balance sheet, our geographically diversified portfolio and our continued reinvestment in our assets. As we have shown, we were able to access many capital allocation levers to create shareholder value, and we will remain opportunistic going forward. With that, I will now turn the call over to Sourav, to discuss additional operational detail and our revised 2024 outlook.

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Thank you, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Building on Jim's comments, I will go into detail on our third quarter operations, updated 2024 guidance and our balance sheet. Starting with total revenue trends, total RevPAR growth continues to meaningfully outpace RevPAR growth as both group and transient guests maintain elevated levels of out-of-room spending. Comparable hotel food and beverage revenue grew 6% in the third quarter, driven by banquet and catering. In fact, banquet and catering revenue achieved the strongest third quarter in Host's history, with contribution per group room night up 13% year-over-year. Transient guests showed continued willingness to spend as well with spa revenues up 5% and resort outage revenue per occupied room of 3%. Overall, transient room revenue was up slightly compared to the third quarter of 2023, driven by the recovery in Maui as well as strong rate and occupancy growth in San Diego, New Orleans and Houston. From a Visa perspective, we are encouraged that Maui is beginning to show improvement. While RevPAR in Maui was down 19% in the third quarter, total RevPAR was down only 10% as out-of-room spending trends returned with the traditional group and leisure guests coming back to the island. Looking at holiday progression, Maui is expected to shift from lagging to leading our portfolio. In the third quarter, Maui represented a drag to portfolio results for both the July 4th and Labor Day weekends. Looking forward, and as Jim alluded to earlier, Maui is driving holiday performance in the fourth quarter. Transient revenue pace for the total portfolio is up 2% for Thanksgiving week compared to the same time last year, and the festive period is up 20%. Business transient revenue was 5% above the third quarter of 2023 driven by rate trend. Overall, business transient demand was down 2% driven by fewer government room nights. Encouragingly, demand from consulting firms increased this quarter, narrowing its gap to pre-pandemic levels. Turning to group, revenue grew 1% in the third quarter driven by rate growth and strong pickup in New Orleans, New York and Boston. As a reminder, group business faced tough comparisons this quarter due to the recovery in the leased rooms booked in Maui last year. We estimate that Maui negatively impacted third quarter group revenue growth by 570 basis points. For full year 2024, we have approximately 4.2 million definite group room nights on the books, keeping us ahead of same time last year. Group rate on the books is up 3% and total group revenue pace is up 5% over the same time last year, bolstered by banquet and catering spend. Looking ahead, our 2025 total group revenue pace is nearly 5% ahead of the same time last year, driven by both rate and room night. We continue to be encouraged by the citywide booking pace in San Francisco, San Antonio, Seattle, Nashville and New Orleans, all of which have citywide group room night pace up meaningfully compared to the same time last year. It is also worth noting that San Francisco citywide room nights are pacing up 40%. Shifting gears to margins, third quarter comparable hotel EBITDA margin of 25.3% was 130 basis points below last year. The decline was driven by increases in wages and benefits. Additionally, we estimate a 110 basis point impact from Maui and the Hurricane Ian business interruption proceeds we received for comparable hotels last year. Turning to our revised outlook for 2024, despite the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, we maintained our previous full year comparable hotel guidance growth midpoint. As a result, we anticipate comparable hotel total RevPAR growth of approximately 1% and comparable hotel RevPAR to be approximately flat compared to 2023. Our guidance assumes the continued recovery in Maui and steady demand trends in the fourth quarter. We estimate the Maui wildfires will impact full year comparable hotel total RevPAR by 180 basis points and RevPAR by 220 basis points. Excluding business interruption proceeds received earlier this year, we expect full year adjusted EBITDAre to be impacted by approximately $75 million relative to our pre-fire estimate. We expect a comparable hotel EBITDA margin of approximately 29%, which is 90 basis points below 2023. We estimate a 30 basis point impact to full year comparable hotel EBITDA margin from Maui relative to our pre-fire estimate, a 40 basis point impact from insurance and property taxes and a 110 basis point impact from wages and benefit rate increases, which is partially offset by a 90 basis point benefit from operational improvements. Our revised 2024 full year adjusted EBITDAre guidance is expected to be $1.630 billion, a $15 million or approximately 1% decrease over the prior midpoint as a result of the hurricanes in Florida. Of the $15 million, we estimate that $2 million occurred in the third quarter and $13 million will occur in the fourth quarter. Our adjusted EBITDAre estimate includes approximately $57 million from operations at The Ritz-Carlton, Naples, a decline of $5 million compared to our prior guidance and $24 million from operations at The Don CeSar, a decline of $9 million compared to our prior guidance. In addition, it includes $11 million from operations at Alila Ventana Big Sur. As a reminder, The Ritz-Carlton, Naples, Alila Ventana Big Sur and The Don CeSar are excluded from our comparable hotel guidance for full year 2024.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Turning to capital allocation and liquidity position in the third quarter, we completed the issuance of $700 million of Series L senior notes at 5.5%. The proceeds were partly used to repay the outstanding revolver portion of our credit facility. Our weighted average maturity is 5.5 years with a weighted average interest rate of 4.8%. Our quarter-end leverage ratio was 2.7 times, and we currently have $2.3 billion in total available liquidity, which includes $240 million of FF&E reserves and $1.5 billion of availability on our credit facility. In October, we paid a quarterly cash dividend of $0.20 per share, demonstrating our commitment to returning capital to stockholders. Future dividends are subject to approval by the company's Board of Directors. To conclude, we are pleased with the performance of our portfolio and encouraged by steady business mix trends heading into 2025. We will continue to opportunistically allocate capital as we seek to elevate the EBITDA growth profile of our portfolio and increase shareholder value. We are now happy to take your questions, and to ensure we have time to address as many as possible, please limit yourself to one question.

Operator, Operator

One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Stephen Grambling, Analyst

Hey, thanks for taking the question. I guess I'd like to touch base on the transaction market. You obviously were active this year with acquisitions. I'm curious how you're thinking about how the market might be evolving now and whether you'd be more likely to be a buyer or a seller at this point, if you're seeing any change in terms of who's actually an active participant either from people putting up assets for sale or people coming to you looking for assets for sale? Thanks.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Sure, Stephen. I would say that up until the last 90 days, both buyers and sellers have largely been inactive due to a wide bid-ask spread, and everyone was in a wait-and-see approach for various reasons. With the election behind us, many people will feel more comfortable understanding the economic policies of the new administration in the near term, and the debt capital markets have become more favorable for transactions, with rates decreasing and spreads narrowing. I believe as we move into next year, private equity will re-enter the market. We have looked at some additional transactions, but nothing has met our criteria. We're pleased to have completed three deals, comprising four hotels and three transactions, earlier this year. Our balance sheet is a key differentiator for us and will continue to be so. We would see increased competition if those assets were available on the market, as they are all appealing, unique properties in prime locations. Relationships and reputation are important and will always set Host apart as we move forward. Our ability to act quickly without needing financing is also a significant advantage. I anticipate that not in the remainder of this year but likely next year, we will hear about more transactions coming to market, as people have been waiting for a long time. The positive aspect is that there hasn't been pressure to sell because fundamentally, the business remains robust and resilient. While there may be some challenges, sellers are not rushing to exit at any cost, so I expect to see a lively transaction market next year. From Host's standpoint, we are likely to explore selling some non-core assets to better grasp pricing on properties that will require substantial capital expenditures but aren't a long-term fit for our portfolio, given our focus over the past several years on generating free cash flow. We will test the market and see the pricing. If it's favorable, we will sell; if not, we will reinvest in those assets. We aim to continue to acquire more in the future. With our current leverage at 2.7 times, we have ample resources available. We are committed to investing in our portfolio. Sourav mentioned that our investments have resulted in an average yield index gain of 7 points. Last quarter, we repurchased $57 million worth of stock and acquired $1.5 billion in assets this year. We look forward to further growing the portfolio, preferring one-off acquisitions to avoid competitive situations, but we're prepared to enter competitive scenarios if necessary. We'll see how it unfolds.

Stephen Grambling, Analyst

Great. And maybe one unrelated follow-up for Sourav. I know we've talked about this on prior calls, and maybe I missed this in your remarks. But I guess, are we still thinking about the underlying EBITDA? There's a lot of moving parts with the different acquisitions. There's The Don CeSar issues and insurance proceeds. Is the underlying EBITDA to build off of still kind of that $1.75 billion? And I guess within that, does that have to include what level of recovery in Maui? And how would you generally think about Maui kind of building back? Thanks.

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Sure. Yes, Stephen. It's still $1.750 billion, and I'll build it from the $1.630 billion so you have all the different moving pieces. So starting off with the midpoint of our current guidance of $1.630 billion, you would take out $40 million of business interruption for this year. So $19 million of it, Ian. That was $10 million in Q1, $9 million in Q2 and then $21 million of BI that we received for the Maui wildfires. So that's the $40 million that you would deduct. Then you would add about $49 million or so for Turtle Bay and 1 Hotel Central Park, add another $13 million for Nashville. And then the $75 million to $80 million, Maui, which I’ll get into a little bit more in terms of how we are thinking about recovery. Then you would add $5 million for Alila Ventana. And then the $15 million we talked about in terms of hurricane impact, you would add to that to get to a grand total of $1.750 billion. That's what we really consider to be the true run rate when you think about adjusted EBITDAre. As it relates to Maui, as Jim and I sort of got into our prepared remarks, we're certainly encouraged by the transient trends and the pickup we are seeing specifically for Thanksgiving as well as for effectively around the week of Christmas and New Years. The piece that is going to be a little bit challenging and will take a little bit longer to recover is going to be the group piece. Because if you recall, beginning of this year, there certainly wasn't a clear method on Maui in terms of being open for business. Once we lapped over the one-year anniversary of the fire, there's certainly much more clear direction in terms of the island being open for tourism and welcoming guests back. The meeting planners didn't really have much of a chance in the beginning of the year to really book forward. So we didn't see much group booking activity into 2025 and into the future. We expect to see that really pick up beginning next year. So the group piece of the business, and group for Maui across our hotels on a room night basis works out to be about 30% or so. And from a revenue perspective, it's around 20% of revenues as a group, but it does build a meaningful base for the hotels, particularly with the Hyatt. That's going to take a little bit while to come back. So that $75 million to $80 million, I mean, we don't have any budgets yet so I can't really give you a number. But what I would say is that the trends are encouraging from a transient pickup perspective and group is going to come back certainly. It will just take a little more time, probably towards the end of next year into 2026.

Stephen Grambling, Analyst

Helpful. Thanks so much.

Operator, Operator

Next question is from Michael Bellisario with Baird. Your line is open.

Michael Bellisario, Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. Just sort of along the same lines on the moving pieces and all your numbers in the models. Can you maybe just take a step back? What's the clean run rate for the portfolio, both top and bottom line, that you think everything is performing at today ex all the one-timers? And then how might that be different or the same as you start thinking about looking out to 2025? Thanks.

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

I'm confident I understand your question. The clean run rate, after considering all adjustments including the acquisition and excluding the BI, is $1.750 billion as I previously mentioned. A significant part of this $1.750 billion is the $75 million to $80 million in Maui EBITDA that we currently do not have. The main question for 2025 is how much of that EBITDA will return. Looking ahead to 2025, without diving into detailed budgets, I don't have a clear understanding of where revenue and expenses will land. However, we do know that the group booking pace for 2025 looks promising, with 2.8 million group room nights already booked. We've seen an increase in total group revenue of about 5% and group rates have risen by around 3.5%. Overall, we feel optimistic about 2025 regarding group bookings based on the visibility we have. Specifically for Maui, as I mentioned, it may take some time for group bookings to fully recover, and at this moment, it's uncertain how much of that $75 million to $80 million we will actually see in Maui.

Michael Bellisario, Analyst

Got it. Sorry, I should have been clear. I was referring to the current growth rates for revenue and expenses. Are you seeing the underlying performance of the portfolio at 3% for revenue and 4% for expenses, excluding one-time items? I’m not focused on the absolute numbers, but rather on the growth rates excluding all the one-time items. I'm considering it in terms of growth rates.

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes. If you think in terms of growth rates, I mean, this year would have, just on a RevPAR perspective, given how much drag we're seeing from Maui, we would have been closer to a 3% RevPAR growth rates. And in that case, we would have actually seen margin expansion because our total expenses was up 2.8%. So net-net, for this year, we would have meaningfully outperformed relative to the industry just given the benefit we saw from all the capital investments we put in into our hotels on the Transformation Capital Program. And as Jim spoke here, the index share gains that we saw, so it's sort of unfortunate that we've had a drag in terms of the Maui wildfire. Otherwise, certainly a 3% growth rate in RevPAR just for this year, and we would have actually seen about a 10, 15 basis points margin expansion.

Michael Bellisario, Analyst

Helpful. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from Smedes Rose with Citi. Your line is open.

Smedes Rose, Analyst

Hi, thank you. I wanted to clarify something about Maui. Can you discuss what you expect there this year in terms of EBITDA, excluding the business interruption proceeds? I would like to understand the gap related to the $75 million to $80 million you mentioned for next year.

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Sure. It's $97 million excluding the BI proceeds.

Smedes Rose, Analyst

Okay. Thanks. You mentioned that the group calendars look favorable for next year. Do you have any thoughts on possibly grouping together for 2025 to secure demand and revenues now, or do you plan to continue with your historical approach regarding the percentage of overall group segmentation?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes, it really is an exercise that we approach on an asset-by-asset basis. We understand what the optimal group room night is for each year to maximize the transient rate. Overall, I would say the mix for the portfolio is not going to change significantly. We focus on grouping up wherever it makes sense and we also like to fill in gaps with contract business, which means you'll see a change in our contract business over the years. Yield management is truly asset-specific. The positive aspect is that certain city-wide events are performing very well for next year, particularly in the Host market. For example, San Francisco is up 40% from this standpoint. Cities like New York, San Antonio, Orlando, and DC make up more than 40% of the group room night bookings we already have for 2025. Overall, I'm feeling very optimistic. As we identify the needs of each asset and where there are gaps, we'll address them accordingly. I genuinely hope that the strength in corporate groups continues, along with the banquet and catering contributions that accompany it, to drive total EBITDA.

Smedes Rose, Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Operator, Operator

The next question is from David Katz with Jefferies. Your line is open.

David Katz, Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I'd love some initial commentary around the labor market. I think there's a lot of potential puts and takes and opportunities that may or may not occur given the election outcomes. I know it's early and you've gone out on a limb elsewhere so I'm not asking that. But any perspectives or thoughts you can share with respect to that and whether it's plus would be great.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Sure, David. Overall, we are very satisfied with the labor situation at our properties. While we are not directly managing or employing staff, we have two of the top management companies in the industry, Marriott and Hyatt, that oversee a significant portion of our portfolio. They are highly regarded employers that individuals seek out for careers in hospitality. Therefore, we are quite optimistic about the future. After the pandemic, we quickly returned to our ideal staffing levels after adjusting our operational model. Looking ahead, we have no concerns regarding labor as we approach 2025 and beyond.

David Katz, Analyst

Thank you. I wanted to follow up on leisure transient and delve a bit deeper. Is the softness we’re discussing more about the decision to proceed or not, or would you say it's more of a response to the levels of rates and rate growth currently available? How should we analyze that?

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

I believe there are several aspects to consider regarding leisure travel. The essential factor is whether people choose to travel, and currently, international outbound air capacity compared to inbound has remained consistent at 120% for the past few quarters. This indicates that people are still traveling and spending money, although they aren't necessarily doing so at our properties. We haven’t seen any resistance to our leisure transient average daily rates, which have increased by 50% compared to the third quarter of 2019 and have been consistently high for ten quarters. Guests are still spending money at our locations as well. We’re recording record levels of spending in our outlets per occupied room, along with ongoing increases in revenue from our spa and golf services. Clearly, affluent consumers continue to spend. We believe that eventually, there will be a return to a more balanced state between international inbound and outbound travel. Currently, international inbound levels are around 90% of what they were in 2019, or possibly slightly lower, which may be influenced by the strong dollar. We are monitoring various factors to gauge the well-being of leisure consumers.

David Katz, Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Chris Darling of Green Street. Your line is open.

Chris Darling, Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. Going back to the Orlando condo development, can you walk through underwritten sales proceeds relative to your development budget there? And then, are there any similar densification opportunities that you might pursue in the near term in other places within the portfolio?

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Sure. Are you talking about in terms of what assumptions we've made with respect to top line sales?

Chris Darling, Analyst

Yes. That would be helpful, all relative to your overall kind of construction budget there.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

The construction budget is between $150 million and $170 million, and that figure remains unchanged. We began the project’s construction in mid-July and expect to start sales around mid to late November. Our goal is to complete the mid-rise portion, which consists of 31 out of the 40 condos, by the fourth quarter of 2025. The remaining nine villas will be finished in the first half of 2026, bringing the total to 40 units. We are projecting cash-on-cash returns in the mid to high teens. While we won't disclose our assumptions regarding sales per square foot, we have planned for a mid to high-teens cash-on-cash return, and construction is on schedule and within budget, so we are confident we will achieve these targets.

Chris Darling, Analyst

Okay. That's fair enough. And I guess to the second half of my question, any similar opportunities that you might pursue in the near term elsewhere in the portfolio?

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

One of the appealing features of The Ritz-Carlton, O'ahu, Turtle Bay, is the 49-acre parcel of entitled land for residential development that is directly adjacent to the resort, a substantial portion of which is oceanfront. Such opportunities are rare in Hawaii, and this factor significantly motivated us to proceed with the acquisition of Turtle Bay. Currently, we are in the planning phase and haven't factored in any EBITDA potential for the resort yet. However, we anticipate that there will eventually be considerable EBITDA growth at The Ritz, along with potential profits from development. This is relevant whether we sell the land outright or enter a joint venture for the development of those 49 acres, which will likely yield around 250 units. A significant portion of these will likely be risk residential units, with at least half participating in the rental pool due to legal requirements in Hawaii. This project is quite exciting and sizable, prompting us to explore either a joint venture or a complete sale of the property. We expect to profit from the sale or development of the land and see significant benefits for the resort from units in the rental pool, sharing revenues with the owner, and additional spending at our restaurants, golf, and spa facilities. This is the most exciting project we are currently working on. We are also evaluating potential residential development at another resort property, but that is still in the very early stages. As we progress, we will provide more details in the future.

Chris Darling, Analyst

Okay. Appreciate the time. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Ari Klein with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Ari Klein, Analyst

Thanks and good morning. Maybe just going back to Maui. It looks like you slightly narrowed the expected RevPAR headwind for the year in that market. I'm just curious if that was based on what you're seeing in Q4. And then, Sourav, you mentioned group taking longer to recover in Maui. Can you just provide us where group and transient currently stands from a delta perspective relative to pre-wildfire?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes, if you recall, last quarter we mentioned that the total impact from Maui was about a 250 basis points drag on the overall RevPAR. We have revised that figure down to 220 basis points, showing an improvement of 30 basis points. This change is primarily based on our observations regarding the transient pace for Thanksgiving and the festive period, which gives us optimism about future trends. Currently, we are down around 20% in terms of room nights. The recovery is expected to take longer for group bookings compared to transient. Before the fires, our key hotels in Maui had approximately 100,000 group room nights. While we are pacing reasonably well for 2025, we are still lagging in group pace by double digits, which we are monitoring closely. We hope to see group activity begin to increase at the start of next year. The transient pace is tracking similarly to pre-fire levels for the fourth quarter, which is encouraging compared to the period before the fires. We are particularly focused on the group segment and are hopeful for a rebound as we move into next year.

Ari Klein, Analyst

Got it. Thanks for that. And then, Jim, I'm wondering if maybe you can provide us with a little bit more color on The Ritz-Carlton O'ahu performance and how that's trended post conversion.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

It's trending in line with our pro forma expectations, Ari. The transition is going well at the present time. It's at the top of the list when anyone is searching for Ritz Carlton. It's a very important asset to Ritz-Carlton brand. It's getting all the attention that is certainly warranted going forward. So we're excited about it. I mean we're working with Art developers who bought an adjacent parcel from Blackstone on a realignment of the golf courses. There are two golf courses there. They're going to lease and manage the other one on our behalf. So everything is going according to plan. The asset was in terrific shape when we bought it. So no near-term CapEx needs. And we're seeing good pace over festive season and beyond into next year.

Ari Klein, Analyst

Thanks for the color.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Chris Woronka with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Chris Woronka, Analyst

Good morning, everyone. I appreciate you taking my question. Jim, year-to-date, your comparable occupancy is around 72%, while in 2019 it was more than 79%. I'm curious if you see any effects from shadow supply, Airbnb, or the softer brands and new affiliations that aren't part of your main brands. It seems like group and corporate occupancy, as well as leisure, have returned to almost pre-pandemic levels. Can you share any insights on where the lost occupancy points might be coming from?

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

The short answer is that the current situation is not due to shadow supply or new supply, as the new supply landscape is stronger than it has been at other points in the cycle. We believe there is still an opportunity to capture around 8 to 9 points of occupancy, which we consider a positive for the portfolio rather than a drawback. The return to office is gradually picking up in several markets, which we see as a significant change since the pandemic. Notably, Salesforce in San Francisco and Amazon are encouraging their employees to return to the office, along with several other large companies. We anticipate that as business travel continues to improve on a quarterly basis, we will be able to close the occupancy gap compared to 2019.

Chris Woronka, Analyst

Okay. Appreciate your thoughts. Thanks, Jim.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from the line of Robin Farley with UBS. Your line is open.

Robin Farley, Analyst

Great. Thank you. Can you give a little more clarity around leisure rates in the quarter on a year-over-year basis? And then kind of your expectation for 2025 in terms of what the leisure traveler kind of outside of Maui, but just sort of broadly, leisure rate may look like next year and also what it was in Q3 year-over-year?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

On a year-over-year basis, it's relatively flat in many markets, slightly down, as some quarters last year were significantly above the 50% compared to 2019. It seems to have normalized around the 50% mark over 2019. Overall, it's been mostly flat. From a demand perspective, we've seen the same trend throughout the year, with every quarter reflecting that stability. In Q1, demand was actually down 3% year-over-year, but it improved as we progressed through the year. So, while it's close to flat, we're not very far from it in both year-over-year comparisons. Looking ahead to 2025, considering the consumer strength we've observed and the hope for greater clarity in the macroeconomic outlook, we believe that leisure travel has established a new baseline. This is where we seem to have settled. Given the growth expectations for next year concerning GDP, business investment, and the broader economic outlook, as mentioned earlier, we anticipate that the existing imbalance between international inbound and outbound travel will eventually normalize, which should aid in stabilizing leisure travel overall. We do not foresee any degradation in rates or demand.

Robin Farley, Analyst

Thank you for the clarification. Regarding the $1.75 billion run rate, I wanted to confirm if the estimate included the potential recovery of $75 million to $80 million from Maui, since you mentioned that it excludes business interruption from there. I apologize if I missed that detail, as there were many factors being discussed. What recovery amount in Maui is factored into that $1.75 billion?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Yes, that did assume the $75 million to $80 million. That was effectively the long-term run rate. So it wasn't necessarily for 2025.

Robin Farley, Analyst

Okay, great. I just wanted to clarify that, based on your previous comments, it seems like you are indicating that this is not your position for 2025. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Thanks. The next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Duane Pfennigwerth, Analyst

Hey, good morning. Just on San Francisco, if I heard you correctly, any times of year or specific citywide events that stick out? I think you said room night pacing is up 40%. And I wonder if there's any more underlying detail you have on that?

Sourav Ghosh, Executive Vice President and CFO

Sure. That's effectively for overall citywide pacing year over year, specifically in terms of group room nights for us. We already, for San Francisco, have approximately 220,000 group room nights on the books, which is about close to 30%, up year-over-year from a pace perspective. It's still obviously far from where we were back in 2019, but nonetheless good progress. And we're really encouraged by the way it's pacing for 2025. And if you recall, 2026 is World Cup and Super Bowl in San Francisco. So again, good things to come for San Fran.

Duane Pfennigwerth, Analyst

Okay. Great. You mentioned this in previous questions, but regarding capital allocation, if we consider ROI projects, additional acquisitions, or buybacks, are you leaning more towards any of these options moving forward based on your experience this year?

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Duane, the most straightforward opportunities for underwriting with a high level of certainty come from our existing portfolio. We are well into the Hyatt Transformational Capital Program and are eager to continue investing in these assets to complete the program in the near term next year. We're always seeking opportunities to inject more funds into our current portfolio through ROI projects. In the last quarter, we executed stock buybacks totaling 3.5 million shares for $57 million, and we'll remain opportunistic in our approach to buying back stock. Regarding acquisitions, we will pursue those that align with our interests. Currently, our leverage stands at 2.7 times, but we can comfortably increase it to around three to 3.25 times. This gives us a considerable amount of capital available to allocate across these various opportunities.

Duane Pfennigwerth, Analyst

Thank you.

Operator, Operator

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I will turn the call to Jim for closing remarks.

Jim Risoleo, President and CEO

Well, thank you again for joining us today. We always appreciate the opportunity to discuss our quarterly results with you, and we look forward to seeing many of you in Las Vegas in the coming weeks and at other conferences over the course of the year. Have a great day.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.