Earnings Call Transcript
Hub Group, Inc. (HUBG)
Earnings Call Transcript - HUBG Q1 2025
Operator, Operator
Hello, and welcome to the Hub Group First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Phil Yeager, Hub's President, Chief Executive Officer and Vice Chairman; and Kevin Beth, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer are joining the call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the prepared remarks. Statements made on this call and in other reference documents on our website that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks, uncertainties, and other factors that might cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by this discussion and therefore should be viewed with caution. Further information on the risks that may affect Hub Group's business is included in the filings with the SEC, which are on our website. In addition, on today's call, non-GAAP financial measures will be used. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and quarterly earnings presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Phil Yeager. You may now begin.
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Good afternoon and welcome to Hub Group's first quarter earnings call. Joining me today is Kevin Beth, Hub Group's Chief Financial Officer and Garrett Holland, our Senior Vice President of Investor Relations. I'd like to start by thanking our thousands of team members across North America for their efforts to support our customers and our Hub Group family through this dynamic market. These efforts drove a 40 basis point improvement in operating margins during the quarter and are setting us up for success, both in the current market and long term. Our customers have taken different approaches to managing through the implementation of tariffs, with the majority taking a wait-and-see approach, while others pull forward inventory depending on their end markets, product types, and origin of their finished goods. It remains unclear what the near and long-term impacts will be as many of our customers have diversified their vendor base and supply chains to ensure fluidity through these potential disruptions. However, this has also created an increased focus for our customers to drive savings in their supply chain, which is supporting over-the-road conversions in Intermodal and increasing the pipeline for our consolidation and managed transportation solutions. There will likely be a near-term impact to import volumes to the West Coast, but the magnitude remains uncertain as our volumes have remained steady. We are closely monitoring the situation, while staying in constant communication with our clients on their needs. Through this current turbulence in global trade, we are focusing on what we can control, winning profitable growth across all of our segments by leveraging our great service, decreasing costs through our newly implemented $40 million cost reduction program, and maintaining our strong balance sheet below our long-term leverage target, giving us flexibility to invest in our business, return capital to shareholders, which totaled $21 million in the quarter, identify strategic acquisition opportunities, and preserve our strong culture and team. I will now discuss our business results starting with ITS, where we delivered an 8% increase in year-over-year operating margin due to improvements in dedicated operations, higher Intermodal volumes, and the EASO joint venture. This margin improvement was partially offset by slightly lower revenue driven by declines in dedicated volume due to lower demand as well as small lot sites and lower Intermodal revenue per load. Intermodal's volumes increased 8% year-over-year due to bid wins, a pull forward of inventory, and benefit from the EASO transaction. Local East volumes increased 13%, Local West increased 5%, and Transcon shipments were down 1% year-over-year, while we had significant volume growth in Mexico through organic expansion and our joint venture. Revenue decreased due to a 12% decline in revenue per load, which was impacted by fuel mix and price. We are executing well in bid season, onboarding wins with a mix of new and existing customers in network beneficial lanes due to our excellent service. We are closely monitoring award compliance, and although shipping patterns have been more erratic, we are seeing improvements as we onboard new awards. During the quarter, we reduced insurance expense, increased our insourced dray percentage, drove better container utilization and empty repositioning costs, while cost per dray and driver productivity remained relatively flat year-over-year. We have further actions in place to enhance these operational areas and anticipate further improvement in the quarters ahead. In Dedicated, we are operating in a competitive environment. And while we have had losses of smaller sites to runway truckload, we have had a strong renewal rate and new wins we are onboarding. We improved our revenue per truck per day by 9% year-over-year in the quarter and are focused on delivering value to our customers through our strong service levels and cost reductions. In Logistics, our operating margin percentage improved 70 basis points year-over-year due to improved efficiency in our facilities as well as the completion of the network alignment initiative that was offset by lower margins in our brokerage. We experienced a larger decline in revenue at brokerage due to limited spot market opportunities and decline in rates as well as negative mix. This was offset by better relative performance in our contractual Logistics offerings. Brokerage volume declined 9% year-over-year with a 10% decline in revenue per load, which was primarily driven by lower fuel price and mix. Our LTL offering is performing well, helping to drive sequential margin improvement from the fourth quarter. We also reduced negative margin shipments by 210 basis points year-over-year and are winning with new and existing customers in bid season, while reducing our purchase transportation costs. In our Managed Solutions, we delivered operating margin percentage improvement in all of our services, the largest being in CFS following the implementation of operational efficiency enhancements and our network alignment initiative completion. This has led to an 1,100 basis point improvement in warehouse utilization year-over-year. We are focused on growth across all of our offerings and improving our cost basis through productivity enhancements, and we have a strong pipeline as we leverage our scale and service to compete and win in the market. With that, I will hand it over to Kevin to discuss our financial results.
Kevin Beth, CFO
Thank you, Phil. I will walk through our financial results before commenting on our outlook. Our reported revenue for the first quarter was $915 million. Revenue decreased by 8% compared to last year and was in line with fourth quarter revenue. ICF revenue was $530 million, which is down 4% from prior year's revenue of $552 million as Intermodal volume growth of 8% was offset by lower Intermodal revenue per load due to a change in mix and slightly lower dedicated revenue in the quarter. Additionally, lower fuel revenue of approximately $11 million negatively impacted the top line. The Logistics segment revenue was $411 million compared to $480 million in the prior year, due to lower volume and revenue per load in our brokerage business, exiting of unprofitable business in CFS and seasonal softness in our managed transportation and final mile lines of business. Lower fuel revenue of $14 million in the quarter also contributed to the decrease. Moving down to P&L, for the quarter, purchased transportation and warehousing costs were $658 million, a decrease of $82 million from the prior year due to strong cost controls as well as lower rail and warehouse expenses. This results in a 220 basis point improvement on a percent of revenue basis when compared to Q1 of 2024. Salaries and benefits of $149 million were $5 million higher than the prior year due to additional employee drivers and warehouse team members and the EASO transaction. Total legacy headcount, which excludes acquisition employees, drivers, and warehouse employees, was lower than last year by 7% as we continue to manage headcount across the organization. Depreciation and amortization decreased $6 million over Q1 2024 due to our updated useful life assumptions. Insurance and claims expense decreased by $2 million as we continue to see our safety focus and training programs pay dividends. Even after the EASO transaction last quarter, our cost controls allowed our general and administration expenses to remain in line with prior year. As a result, our operating income increased year-over-year, with an operating income margin of 4.1% for the quarter, an increase of 40 basis points over the prior year. ITS quarterly operating margin was 2.7%, a 30 basis point improvement over prior year. First quarter Logistics operating margin was 5.7%, a 70 basis point improvement over Q1 2024. EBITDA was $85 million in the first quarter. Overall, Hub earned an EPS of $0.44 in the first quarter, in line with Q1 2024. Now turning to our cash flow. Cash flow from operations for the first three months of 2025 was $70 million. First quarter capital expenditure totaled $19 million with the majority of spend related to tractor replacements, with technology making up the remainder of the spend. Our balance sheet and financial position remain strong. Through the first quarter, we returned $21 million to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases, as we purchased $14 million of shares and issued our quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share. Net debt was $140 million which is 0.4 times EBITDA, below our stated net debt of EBITDA range of 0.75 times to 1.25 times. EBITDA less CAPEX was $65 million in the first quarter. We are pleased with our cash EPS of $0.55. The spread between EPS and cash EPS was $0.11 for the quarter, and we ended the quarter with $141 million of cash. Turning to our 2025 guidance, we expect full-year EPS in the range of $1.75 to $2.25 and revenue to be between $3.6 billion to $4 billion for the full year. We project an effective tax rate of approximately 24%. We also expect capital expenditures in the range of $40 million to $50 million as we focus on replacement for tractors that have reached their end of life and technology projects. We do not plan to purchase containers in 2025. Our assumptions at the high end of the range include either a short West Coast slowdown of China imports or a strong bounce-back of demands in the West Coast leading to a surge of volume in the back half of the year that allows for increased pricing for peak season surcharges. The low end of the range would be due to an extended slowdown in China imports and/or the weakening of consumer spending. The decrease in volume and margin dollars would be partially offset by further cost management efforts. The assumptions in the middle of the range contemplate a volume decrease in the second half of the second quarter due to our customers' changing shipping patterns to combat tariffs with a return to directional seasonality in the third quarter as consumer strength holds. Additionally, we should recognize additional cost-saving benefits through the year as the team remains committed to disciplined expense management. For the ITS segment, we expect pricing to be relatively flat for the remainder of the year, as we continue to focus on network needs and new customer acquisitions. We think there is upside should we see a bounce back of volume, which would allow for peak season surcharges and pricing increases. Due to the expected second-quarter slowdown, we expect sequential operating results to be flat to down from the first quarter. Then we would expect to be back to normal seasonal operating income pattern. We expect dedicated revenues to be less than 2024 as new customers are not enough to offset lost customers and demand softness. For Logistics, excluding our brokerage business, we expect some general softness in demand, but there should be some mitigating factors affecting revenue. In our warehouse business if we experience lower transportation revenue, we expect to see an increase in storage revenue, and in our final mile and managed transportation business, we have a good pipeline, which, if onboarded, could offset slower shipping from current customers. For brokerage, we expect volume for the remainder of the year to be flat to down from current volume results, but pricing to continue at current levels. The business has potential upside if we see a pronounced bounce back in inventory restocking. We continue to manage what we can control, and our cost savings initiatives have resulted in improved profitability. We are pleased with the progress the team has made with the operating income percentage increase in both segments, ITS with 30 basis points and Logistics with 70 basis points of growth, resulting in a 1% increase in consolidated operating income or growth of 40 basis points on a percent to revenue basis. We also reported Q1 Intermodal volume growth of 8%, free cash flow of $51 million, and cash EPS of $0.55. As we manage through this unpredictable environment, our longer-term strategy continues to guide us. We remain focused on managing our people costs, reducing discretionary spending, and driving down transportation costs. At the same time, our strong balance sheet allows us to make value-added acquisitions. As I have noted in the past, the important strategic changes we have made to our business, including our focus on yield management, asset utilization, operating expense efficiency, and investing in asset-light logistics offerings, have significantly improved profitability, predictability, free cash flow, and returns. We believe these strategic changes allow Hub Group to be successful in a variety of macroeconomic environments. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to open the line to any questions.
Scott Group, Analyst
Hey thanks, afternoon guys. So can you just talk about what percentage of Intermodal is tied to West Coast ports and then maybe, I think in the past, you gave us monthly trends, maybe just give us the monthly trends and what April was? And then, I know this a bunch, but all sort of in the same vein. But it feels like this import cliff is starting this week, so just what you're expecting to happen to your volumes going forward?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Sure. Yes. So I'll start. I'll start with volume trends. January was up 18%, February was up 1%, March was up 7%, and then April was up 6%. Thus far, in May, we haven't seen the slowdown that is obviously much anticipated. But at this point not showing up in our data. We think that's going to vary by customer and how much they have pulled forward, how much seasonal products they have, how much diversification in their sourcing strategy they've been able to execute on. As far as exposure with China, about 25% of our West Coast volumes are port-related, 30% of that coming from China. We are obviously anticipating that slowdown. Once again, it will vary by customer. But we're also going to have opportunities to reduce costs. Our repositioning costs are going to go down. We're going to insource more of our drayage, as Kevin mentioned in the prepared remarks. Our storage revenue and warehouse utilization will improve. So we're certainly monitoring it closely, but once again haven't seen an impact at this point.
Scott Group, Analyst
What is the typical delay from when freight arrives at a port to when it is reflected in your volume? Do you have any insight on whether there is still a significant amount of freight at the ports or nearby warehouses that needs to be moved, even if new shipments coming into the ports are limited?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes, I agree with you. I think it takes a few weeks for the effects to show up, and we haven't seen that yet. However, indications suggest that there are still a significant number of warehouses and ongoing clearance through the port infrastructure. We are closely monitoring our customers on this matter. The situation will vary by customer, end market, and product type, so we are staying alert and keeping a close eye on daily and weekly compliance and forecasts from our clients.
Scott Group, Analyst
And then last one, I'll pass it off. Any update you can give us just on bid season and what kind of pricing you're seeing?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes, yes. I would say it's competitive, but certainly not irrational. If you look at Q1, there was actually a pull forward of bids. We had about 48% of our business gets bid in Q1 which we think was actually advantageous for Intermodal. Truckload carriers came out with a little bit more aggression on rate. That led our customers, I think, to look at the cost differential, as well as the service products we're delivering in Intermodal and push a little bit more conversion than they may have otherwise. In Q2, 38% of our business is getting bid-out. I would say it's been a little bit more aggressive, which is leading us to really say we think flattish on pricing for the full year. But we've executed our bid plan. We've done really well in backhauling’s and efficient business for our drivers. We're growing well in the East and in Mexico, and also with our temperature control products. We've added 50 new logos thus far through bid season. So really pleased with those results. And I think the focus for us to keep delivering a great service product, keep reducing costs so we can compete and win, and we'll be in a good position, as we see volume normalize.
Kevin Beth, CFO
And Scott, this is Kevin. Just our normal cadence on bids is about 30% to 35% in the first quarter and about 35% in the second quarter. So you can see that bid pull forward that Phil was talking about.
Scott Group, Analyst
Thank you guys, appreciate it.
Bascome Majors, Analyst
Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe adding a little more qualitative commentary to that. Can you walk through how your conversations with your largest customers, which are the largest retailers, with sophisticated ways to deal with this situation, how has that evolved over the last six to seven weeks and are your forecast in the kind of high and low-end scenarios of revenue that you talked about, you are tied to what they're sharing with you for their forecast, just trying to understand how quickly this is moving and how much visibility you think you do or don't have at this point? Thank you.
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Sure. Yes, this is Phil. We expect a decrease in import demand in the latter half of the second quarter. The potential scenarios we are considering include a quick rebound where surcharges push us to the high end of the range we provided. Conversely, if the situation persists and starts affecting consumers, we could see ourselves at the low end. However, we believe the actual outcome will likely fall somewhere in between, which represents the midpoint of our range. Based on our discussions with customers, there has definitely been some pull forward, as evidenced by our January volumes being up 18%. Nevertheless, inventories are not overstocked at this time. Additionally, there is significant seasonal shipping that still needs to happen. Many of our customers have proactively diversified their supply chains, while others are responding more to real-time conditions. The strategies employed have varied widely; those focused on Chinese imports have experienced pull forward, while others are more cautious and taking a wait-and-see approach. We're monitoring the situation closely, and our guidance reflects a variety of potential outcomes informed by these customer discussions and our forecasts.
Kevin Beth, CFO
Yes, Bascome, this is Kevin. I'll just add. Certainly, we're taking as many data points as we can get our hands on when we're coming up with our scenarios. So yes, that factors in what we're hearing from customers, but also what we're reading and what's available publicly.
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
And this last thing I'd add is, the primary impact, at least in the near term, would be ITS or Intermodal. Our other businesses are going to be somewhat more resilient through this. Our managed transportation business is not as import heavy. Our warehousing business is going to see an influx of storage demand likely. And so we have some offsets and obviously, we're doing a good job managing costs to ensure we're in a good position.
Kevin Beth, CFO
And finally, one thing I would add is, this really gives Hub that opportunity to work with our customers and show them that we can save them money and come up with better transportation spend to really meet their needs. So that is an opportunity that we're trying to take advantage of as well.
Bascome Majors, Analyst
And if we work backwards from the holidays through this uncertainty and just think about retail inventory needing to move inland and hit store shelves by November, early December, when do you think that you'll have the visibility in those decisions on how to manage through this will be made by those customers?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes, I believe there is definitely a gap in freight that is approaching. Some of that will likely be replaced by shipments from different origin points. We have seasonal items like back-to-school and Halloween that need to be imported or sales will be lost. Typically, our strongest shipping quarter is Q3, with late August, September, and October being crucial months for product shipping. Decisions regarding these shipments are generally made around July, usually in late June or early July, and we should start seeing those reflected in the data at that time. If there is clarity in trade, consumers are showing resilience, and shipping will continue. Additionally, inventories across many of our sectors have not been overly built up. We are monitoring the situation closely and will continue to engage with our customers.
Bascome Majors, Analyst
Thank you all.
Bruce Chan, Analyst
Jizong Chan: Yeah, thanks operator and good afternoon everyone. Kevin, you talked about some of the additional levers that you can pull on to offset some of the pressure of the environment, kind of trends towards the bear side of the outlook, and that was certainly helpful. Specific to headcount, last year, I think you talked about headcount being down about, I want to say, 3%. Where was headcount this quarter and if you think about a potential deterioration in the market, where can that number sort of go to?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes. This is Phil. I'll start. So headcount was down 7%. As I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we have about $40 million of cost cuts that we're executing on. Half of that has been implemented really at the time of the call. So you start to see that kind of back half of Q2 and more materially in the third quarter and we'll implement the remainder as the year progresses. But two-thirds of that amount is purchase transportation, so drayage, truckload, LTL as well as temporary labor in the warehouses. The other third is more salaries and benefits weighted with the reduction in headcount, not backfilling roles that are necessary, but we're also doing a really nice job and have made some significant reductions in our outsourced labor there as well. So once again, we're controlling what we can. We want to be in a position where we can support our customers as we see a rebound in demand as well. So we're certainly being thoughtful in our approach around it, but obviously see opportunities to reduce costs as well.
Kevin Beth, CFO
Yes. Just to add that. We also have some of our technology implementations are paying off. We're seeing some reduced spend in our outsourced support systems that we needed for some legacy IT, as well as the consulting on the IT spend is coming down as well. So we have pretty much every facet we've looked under, and we're finding things that are allowing us to decrease costs. And as Phil mentioned, several of those programs have already been implemented. Other ones are being implemented as we speak. And so we'll see some of that benefit grow as the year progresses.
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
And these improvements are on top of the reductions we made in the network alignment initiative. And I think the team has done a great job in reducing empty repositioning costs, which were down 17% year-over-year in the quarter. And then we have also been reducing insurance expense. The team has done a great job in reducing accident frequency and severity. And so that has been a tailwind as well.
Jizong Chan, Analyst
Okay, that’s super helpful color. And then maybe just for the follow-up, looking for some updates on EASO in terms of business trends. I know you mentioned that the Mexican volumes there are pretty strong. Any evidence of sourcing shifts there yet and if you think about M&A, we've talked about that a lot in the past, but specific to Mexico, do you feel like there's still opportunity to kind of fortify your presence there or do you think that you're pretty well built out?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes. I would say EASO has been a fantastic joint venture, and we've been off to a great start. Our volumes were about 4x on a year-over-year basis, and we're cross-selling really well, have some significant opportunities we're working on with our rail partners, and it's very exciting. We have seen erratic shipping patterns with some of the news around tariffs being on and off. So I think the more we get clarity there, the better. But for the time being, most of our customers are back to normal shipping, and we're seeing increases in volume just on an organic basis, even before some of the cross-selling and obviously, just the upside from having EASO in our numbers. We are continuing to look at acquisition opportunities. We have a really good pipeline right now, some really interesting opportunities. I do think adding more solutions to support our customers in Mexico over time will be the right approach. And so we're certainly going to be opportunistic within that. We also have a lot of interesting opportunities in the space right now that will help us continue to build scale and differentiation in the existing service lines. So a lot of good opportunities.
Jizong Chan, Analyst
That’s great. Thank you.
Uday Khanapurkar, Analyst
Hi thanks, this is Uday on for Jason Seidl. I guess, just one on surcharges. Your guide originally called for modest peak season surcharges kind of preempting the pull forward. Are we still expecting that kind of in the base case? And maybe secondly, on the high end, are you assuming we see surcharges maybe earlier in the year than usual if this air pocket kind of gives way to a big influx?
Kevin Beth, CFO
Sure. Yes, this is Kevin. I'll take that one. To answer your question on surcharges, the base case, there is none incorporated in the base case. Certainly, in the pull case, yes, surcharges are contemplated, not to the level that we saw last year of $5.5 million. But the timing of it is really in question. I think that's really one of the big things that is unknown at this time, that depending on when if tariffs change or as Phil spoke about earlier, if that restocking really comes at a certain time, that is probably when we would see the surcharges. But without knowing what's going to happen with tariffs, it's really hard to predict when that would happen.
Uday Khanapurkar, Analyst
Okay, that’s pretty helpful. And then maybe just another clarification. I mean you said it was advantageous that a big chunk of bid got pulled into 1Q. Is that indicating that the Intermodal pricing environment sort of deteriorated into 2Q and that we need some kind of stabilization in the second half to get to the flat year-on-year?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
I believe that at the beginning of the bid season, truckload pricing was more aggressive as companies tried to increase rates, while Intermodal remained stable. There were some rate increases in head hauls, but backhauls continued to be very competitive. In the latter part of the bid season, we've noticed increased competition in the truckload sector, which hasn't significantly affected Intermodal. However, there are fewer immediate opportunities for conversion due to the pricing from truckload carriers. Despite this, we're still performing well in the market, with a competitive advantage over truckload at around 30% in aggregate. Our service value proposition is strong, and customers are aware that if consumer demand holds, they will need to secure shipping capacity in the second half of the year. Intermodal presents a valuable opportunity to reduce supply chain costs while also ensuring that capacity is locked in for potential surges.
Uday Khanapurkar, Analyst
Okay, that’s great. Maybe if I can squeeze one on Dedicated. I mean, how many bid seasons do you think it will take to kind of get rates to kind of the previous high watermarks in the previous cycle, any thoughts on that?
Kevin Beth, CFO
Yes. So Dedicated is multi-year contracts. So we're constantly having renewals every year. Right now, it's a little bit more competitive with one way. The rates are typically based off of driver pay with a fixed and variable portion. And while it's been somewhat more aggressive, and we're still doing a good job on renewals, and we've done a lot of self-help on controlling costs and improving our operating performance, which is really supporting those improved margins on a year-over-year basis. So we feel as though there's still opportunities regardless of what's going on with rate, and we'll constantly every year be renewing contracts and if wages are going up, we'll be taking rates up and vice versa. So right now, though, obviously a competitive environment, but we're holding our own really well with strong renewals, strong service levels, and we are being proactive with our customers and identifying efficiency opportunities.
Uday Khanapurkar, Analyst
Alright, thanks for the time.
Jonathan Chappell, Analyst
Thank you, good afternoon. Kevin, just trying to put a pin on some of these things, which I understand are difficult to put a pin on just given the uncertainty. But in the guidance in February, looking for high single-digit Intermodal volume growth and low single-digit pricing increases, given what you said for the midpoint today, volume decreases in the second half of 2Q, return to directional seasonality, ITS pricing flat for the rest of the year, what would that translate to for full-year Intermodal volume growth and pricing?
Kevin Beth, CFO
Thank you, Jon, for your question. We are not providing full-year forecasted volume numbers at this time due to the various scenarios we have considered and the uncertainty involved. As you mentioned, we do expect a slowdown in the second half of this quarter. However, without clarity on when that shift might occur and its intensity, we are unable to provide those figures at this moment.
Jonathan Chappell, Analyst
Okay, that makes sense. On the pricing side, if it remains flat from today, would that still show positive year-over-year growth in the second half, or would it be closer to flat year-over-year?
Kevin Beth, CFO
Yes, it would be pretty close to flat for year-over-year. And like Phil said, we do have good visibility to that with the bids being pulled forward. So it will be dependent on how the mix ends up being, and that is, again, making sure how compliant customers are with what they're telling us and sticking to their actual guide of freight that they originally projected.
Jonathan Chappell, Analyst
Okay, that makes sense. One just quick last follow-up. Again, in Feb, you were looking for a normalization of incentive comp, which I think you had expected to be a headwind. You talked about all the great things you're doing on the cost side. Is that dialed down a bit as well or do you still kind of expect the same instead of comp headwind year-over-year 2025 versus 2024?
Kevin Beth, CFO
Yes. I think overall, we still expect some headwind there, but it is being muted a little bit now with the change in the actual headcount itself.
Brian Ossenbeck, Analyst
Good afternoon. Thank you for your questions. I have a broader inquiry about the intermodal network and its utilization, as well as the overall balance. It seems you had a significant reduction in empty repositioning costs. Could you provide more details on that? Are there still areas that are less dense than you would prefer, or were those issues resolved during the bid season?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes, we are pleased with the progress made on empty repositioning, despite the January pull forward in freight. Reducing repositioning costs by 17% was a very positive outcome for us, resulting from successful bid wins and improved balance and velocity. We believe we've continued to execute well on bids for targeted lanes. However, we anticipate a decline due to the uncertainty surrounding West Coast volume reductions related to the import air pocket. We expect decreased demand from the West Coast but are focused on managing what we can control. Long term, we aim to fill in the backhaul lanes, and we've made good progress in that area. Growth in the East will further enhance balance and velocity. Overall turn times improved by about 4% year-over-year, which we're also happy about, as it indicates we're maximizing our current resources. Maintaining that momentum is vital, and our focus remains on winning in the right lanes and successfully executing our strategy.
Brian Ossenbeck, Analyst
And it sounds like rail service is performing pretty well despite the volatility and the uncertainty based on the comments on downturn times and how is that translating to truckload conversion, it sounds like the spread is pretty favorable, but I'm assuming rail service is a big part of that conversation, too?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Rail service has been exceptional and robust. Both of our partners are doing quite well. I am more confident in our ability to handle a surge in import demand with our Intermodal network compared to previous years, thanks to the strong operating models of our rail partners. We're optimistic about this. We've also learned a lot over the last few years and enhanced the resilience of our service. We feel good about our ability to manage demands for our customers. Overall, rail service has been very strong.
Brian Ossenbeck, Analyst
Last follow-up on the same sort of topic. What do you feel about stacked boxes and where they are, given we have seen some pretty big differences in the growth in different regions. So I guess, maybe an update in terms of just general positioning for boxes, other equipment and dray, and what's the current percentage stacked, if you can give that? Thanks.
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes, yes. Yes, we have somewhere around approximately 20%, 25% of our boxes stacked at this moment in time. We think we have about 35% incremental capacity before we have to really put any capital into containers. So we have a long way to go. We did improve our insourced dray percentage by about 400 basis points sequentially. We've done a really nice job here in the second quarter thus far. So we should see another step-up on insourced dray percentage. And we're doing some targeted hiring, but really just getting more utility out of our existing team. And so we feel good about the momentum there. And I think we have plenty of capacity and on the drayage on the street, we're doing a really good job. So a lot of good work by the team.
Brian Ossenbeck, Analyst
Okay, thank you Phil. Appreciate it.
Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst
Good afternoon. I wanted to ask about the visibility on volume. You provided some high-level parameters for understanding this. For the second quarter, can you share your baseline expectations for Intermodal volumes compared to the first quarter? April seems to be looking good, but do you anticipate the full quarter being down or perhaps remaining flat, considering some potential softening later in the quarter? How do you view this?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes. This is Phil. I think it's a little unclear what the drop will be and the timing of it. If we're still plenty being trans loaded and still in warehouses, that's going to delay that drop. Once again, we haven't seen it in our numbers yet. So if it's three weeks out, I would tell you, we're still anticipating volumes being up. If it's in the next two weeks, then that could vary. But at this point, I would tell you, we're still anticipating volume growth for the quarter, but it really does depend on how large that drop is and what the timing is as well.
Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst
Okay. And so volume growth sequentially or year-over-year?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
I would say year-over-year. Sequentially, it's probably unlikely, I would guess. But once again, it's hard to know. If we're in the second week of June and we still have product flowing, then we're going to be up. And I think at the same time, we tried to give an indication of the exposure we have to China imports. I think our customers have diversified their supply chains. And if 25% of our West Coast volumes are port-related and 30% of that is China, it shouldn't be an outsized impact, and we've done really well with growth in Mexico and growth in the local East. So those should be some offsets to that import demand drop.
Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst
I wanted to ask about your outlook on the ITS and Logistics operating margins moving forward. Do you anticipate stability? I understand that the second quarter has some challenges due to weakened volumes, but how do you see the margins evolving from the 2.7% and 5.7% in the first quarter? What key factors could help improve from the first quarter levels?
Kevin Beth, CFO
Sure. Tom, this is Kevin. We don't provide quarterly guidance on this. But what I will tell you is, again, it depends on that timing and if there is that falloff. But without that, we would expect to see the directional normal seasonal increases that you would see in third and fourth quarter for both ITS and for Logistics. I think right now, second quarter is a little bit more up in the air. If there really is the falloff that everyone is talking about with the imports, then that may be sequentially down.
Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst
Okay. So probably versus 1Q, some improvement in the second half, but less clear for 2Q?
Kevin Beth, CFO
Yes.
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes.
Kevin Beth, CFO
And again, those cost items that we talked about, the $40 million of different projects that we have, they're going to be kicking in. And I think we'll be able to help even if there is some muted volume in the second half, especially maybe in the beginning of July.
Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst
Okay. Maybe one last one, and I'll hand it off. But what do you think about the kind of the key lever for Intermodal margin improvement, you used to run it at a lot higher level, and I feel like it's just been the big weight on truckload and Intermodal has just been excess capacity and difficulty getting rate. Is that really the thing you just got to get a stronger rate environment and then that Intermodal margin improves a fair bit or what's kind of the key lever if you look a little further out?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes, this is Phil. I mean, I don't really recall when we were running at a much higher margin. I think we've actually done a great job improving the trough-to-trough margin profile and actually more than doubling it. So I feel like we've actually done a great job. We did run higher in COVID when our boxes were being used for storage. But yes, so I guess that would be the time where it was higher. But at the same time, I think we do need more velocity in the network. That's priority one. We need to continue to in-source more drayage, which right now, we're running over 80%. We've got our chassis programs in place. We've got variable rate in our rail contracts. So yes, I mean, I still think mid-cycle, this is a mid-single-digit operating margin business in that 5% to 6% range. And as you get to the peak of a cycle, it could be much higher than that. So demand would certainly help, but I think we've done a really good job controlling what we can control and improving the margins of the business.
Kevin Beth, CFO
Certainly, price moves the lever easier than volume does, but that day is going to come. And I think we're ready for that growth opportunity.
Thomas Wadewitz, Analyst
Alright, makes sense. Thanks for the time.
Christopher Kuhn, Analyst
Yeah, hi good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions guys. Appreciate it. Can we just go back to the Logistics margins, I mean they were up 70 basis points. The brokerage business still seems like a pretty big drag on that. I mean, are the other businesses within that improving margins or is that all just the actions you took last year? And what is the underlying margin in that business now that you've done a pretty good job despite the brokerage being a drag?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes, thank you for the question. Yes, we do agree we think we've done a very nice job improving the margins. The 70 basis points in this environment was pretty strong. If you look at it, on a year-over-year basis, there was a drag from the brokerage offsetting some of the improvements we made. In particular, in the consolidation business, where we've done a much better job on managing our labor expenses, improving customer retention levels, improving service and then obviously aligning our space to our needs. And we have some upside for growth, and that should certainly be helped with some of the storage needs of our customers. But yes, we're continuing to drive improvements in our managed transportation business in final mile as well as in warehousing. I think on the brokerage, it has been a headwind. We have done a nice job reducing our negative margin load. That was down over 200 basis points in the quarter. Our productivity continues to improve. But with the limited spot market opportunities that have been out there, it's kind of kept a lid on the margin profile, though we're still profitable within that segment. But no, I appreciate the question. I think we are doing a good job managing our costs there, but also bringing on nice new profitable wins and see more margin upside ahead.
Christopher Kuhn, Analyst
Yeah, no, that’s helpful. And just to your last comment, we haven't heard that maybe some shippers are keeping inventory in containers. I don't know if you're seeing that, but just curious as to whether that might be something you might see in the next quarter or two?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
We haven't observed that yet. There may be some customers who are excessively pulling forward, but we haven't reached that level at this time. It's definitely something we'll monitor.
David Zazula, Analyst
Hey, thanks for taking my question. Kevin, I noticed the lowering of the CAPEX guide. I wonder if you could give some color on that. I think you said you already were not putting anything into containers this year. So what are you cutting, what areas are you kind of looking at to trim down the CAPEX for the year?
Kevin Beth, CFO
Sure. Yes, thank you for the question. Yes, the change in the CAPEX, as you noted, went from $50 million to $70 million was the original. We're now down to $40 million to $50 million. It really reflects less fleet investment and steady upgrades in this environment. We're continuing to have no additional container investments. No change on our IT front. The projects that we had anticipated are we're still planning on it and moving forward with. Really, one of the things that we were able to do is really find some solutions to be able to use some of our equipment down in Mexico. So that was an opportunity that allowed us to decrease that spend as well.
David Zazula, Analyst
Awesome. And then on dedicated customer retention, I mean, you mentioned it is an issue, and I think it had been an issue in the past. Is it something that is accelerating, is it something you're more concerned about now in the back half, is this something that due to the unstable environment, just it's harder to get customers to resign contracts?
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Yes. This is Phil. I think the sites that we lost were pretty small and mostly turned over to one-way truckload. And so our retention levels are still around 90% if you look at just on a contract basis and on a percent of revenue would be even higher than that, just given its smaller sites. So we feel as though we're in a good spot. We're providing really good service levels and being proactive on identifying efficiency opportunities. And as I mentioned, we have some new onboardings we're bringing on with actually some new and existing customers. So I think we're doing a good job managing that business. We have good operational controls. We just need to continue to execute, and we'll be in good shape.
Kevin Beth, CFO
And I think when you look down the road, this is going to be an opportunity for growth. When those one-way rates change, we're going to be able to bounce back on with our dedicated solutions and hopefully win some contracts that way.
David Zazula, Analyst
With you bringing in some new customers or additional volume with additional customers, is the end market profile of Dedicated changing at all, are there some types of customers where it's easier to get them to look at Dedicated now versus a year ago or two years ago?
Kevin Beth, CFO
Yes. Most of our Dedicated business focuses on retail, but we also have a solid base of industrial clients and a few consumer products as well. The new contracts are primarily in the retail and consumer sectors with companies that are thriving despite the challenges in global trade and are seeking to secure high service capacity. These successes are occurring in areas where we have a strong presence. Therefore, our ability to scale up with them should be quite effective. Overall, we feel optimistic about our wins and favorable network routes with reputable customers.
David Zazula, Analyst
Thanks Kevin, thanks Phil, appreciate it.
Operator, Operator
I would now like to turn the conference back to Phil Yeager for closing remarks.
Phil Yeager, President and CEO
Great. Well, thank you everybody for joining our first quarter earnings call this morning or this afternoon. And as always, Kevin and I are available for any questions you might have. Thank you, and have a good evening.
Operator, Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call with Hub Group. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.