Earnings Call Transcript - IHS Q1 2025

Operator, Operator

Good day, and welcome to the IHS Holding Limited First Quarter 2025 Earnings Results Call for the three-month period ending March 31, 2025. Please note that today's conference is being webcast and recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Robert Berg. Please go ahead, sir.

Robert Berg, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, operator. Thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. I'm Robert Berg, Head of Investor Relations here at IHS. With me today are Sam Darwish, our Chairman and CEO; and Steve Howden, our CFO. This morning, we filed our unaudited condensed consolidated interim financial statements for the 3-month period ended March 31, 2025, with the SEC, which can also be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, and issued a related earnings release, presentation and supplemental deck. These are the consolidated results of IHS Holding Limited, which is listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol IHS, and which comprises the entirety of the Group's operations. Before we discuss the results, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer set out at the beginning of the presentation on Slide 2, which should be read in full, along with the cautionary statement regarding forward-looking statements set out in our earnings release and 6-K filed as well today. In particular, the information to be discussed may contain forward-looking statements, which, by their nature, involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors, some of which are beyond our control that are difficult to predict and other factors which may cause actual results, performance or achievements or industry results to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements or industry results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our Form 20-F filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and our other filings with the SEC. We'll also refer to non-IFRS measures, including adjusted EBITDA that we view as important in assessing the performance of our business, ALFCF that we view as important in assessing the liquidity of our business and consolidated net leverage ratio that we view as important in managing the capital resources of our business. A reconciliation of non-IFRS metrics to the nearest IFRS metrics can be found in our earnings presentation, which is available on the Investor Relations section of our website. And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Sam Darwish, our Chairman and CEO.

Sam Darwish, Chairman and CEO

Thanks, Robert, and welcome, everyone, to our first quarter 2025 earnings results call. We're reporting a strong start to 2025 with solid growth across our key metrics of revenue, adjusted EBITDA and ALFCF, and a reduction in total CapEx, all in line with our expectations. As a result, we are pleased to reiterate all elements of our full year 2025 outlook. Our positive quarter results and momentum reflect: one, the continuing macroeconomic stability in our countries; two, the continued strong secular trends that we are seeing across our business; and three, strong operational focus as we continue to benefit from the significant commercial and financial progress that we made in 2024 and continued into 2025. Looking at our revenue, we saw 26% organic growth driven by almost 8% constant currency growth as we saw increased revenue from colocation, lease amendments, new sites, and CPI escalators. First quarter revenues also saw a significant benefit from our Forex resets and power indexation, which play a vital role in helping to offset currency devaluation or movement in power prices. Our strong organic growth more than offset the impact of the Kuwait disposal, which we completed in December 2024 and some currency depreciation. Turning to profitability. Our adjusted EBITDA reached $253 million in the quarter with a margin of 57.5%, up 1,320 basis points compared to this time last year. ALFCF was $150 million during the first quarter 2025, an increase of almost 250% year-over-year, driven by improved profitability and the rephasing of interest payments. Total CapEx was $44 million in the quarter, down 17.8% year-over-year, given our narrowed focus on capital allocation. We continue to assess Group-wide costs, CapEx structures and new ways to operate our networks, including how we can introduce more technology, especially artificial intelligence into our ways of working to help us realize future efficiencies. As we discussed in detail at our recent full year 2024 results, and as you can see from our first quarter results in 2025, we have made significant progress across a number of our strategic initiatives. And our focus on financial discipline and capital allocation is delivering sustained improvements in our profitability and cash flow generation. These improvements supplemented by select asset disposals have resulted in a further reduction in our consolidated net leverage ratio to 3.4x, down from 3.7x at the end of 2024 and a strong liquidity position with over $900 million of available liquidity at the end of March. Following the strong start to the year, we are continuing to implement our strategy to further improve profitability and cash flow generation while strengthening our balance sheet with the goal of maximizing returns for all our stakeholders. In this regard, we are pleased to announce further progress in our strategic priority related to asset disposals as we have agreed to sell 100% of IHS Rwanda for an enterprise value of $274.5 million, implying a transaction multiple of 8.3x adjusted EBITDA after leases. The agreement to sell our Rwanda operations was carefully considered as part of our strategic initiatives targeted at shareholder value creation options. The 8.3x multiple achieved is materially higher than the IHS Group multiple, highlighting the value contained within our wider portfolio. We have enjoyed more than 10 years of commercial success in Rwanda and are deeply appreciative to our colleagues, customers and the government of Rwanda for helping make IHS Rwanda the success it is today. This latest disposal in Rwanda comes after we disposed of Kuwait and Peru in 2024 as well as exited the Egyptian market. Not only are we raising the capital we previously targeted, we are also streamlining our markets of focus that remain within the IHS Group. Please note that the quarter-on-quarter 0.3x reduction in leverage from 3.7 multiples to 3.4 multiples does not reflect the proceeds from the Rwanda disposal. We will continue to assess if there are additional value-creative disposal opportunities. Looking ahead, we remain excited by the strong growth opportunities across our footprint, underpinned by continued 5G deployment across our markets. Our confidence in the outlook for the remainder of the year is further supported by the improving backdrop within our two largest markets, Nigeria and Brazil. And with that, I will turn the call over to Steve.

Steve Howden, CFO

Thanks, Sam, and hello, everyone. Let's take a look at Slide 8, where we show our 1Q '25 performance. Our results were in line with expectations and came with a backdrop of a more stable macroeconomic environment in Nigeria. As we look at the results, please note, firstly, the year-over-year comparisons are impacted by the late January 2024 devaluation in Naira, which dragged down the 1Q '24 comparator. Secondly, the December 2024 Kuwait disposal, meaning no MENA contribution now in 2025. And thirdly, the impact of the renewed and extended contracts with MTN Nigeria signed in August of last year, including associated site churn, continue to impact the comparisons. In terms of the results themselves, both towers and tenants were down approximately 3% and 1%, respectively, year-over-year, while lease amendments increased by high single-digit percentages. The decline in both towers and tenants is primarily a reflection of the divestitures of towers in Kuwait and Peru. And excluding the impact of these disposals, we added 1,375 net tenants year-on-year. We also saw the initial impact of the 1,050 sites that MTN Nigeria will vacate this year. As of the end of Q1, 183 tenants, including 347 lease amendments, have churned with an approximate $1.6 million reduction in revenue year-on-year as a result. On a reported basis, in the first quarter, revenue increased by approximately 5% year-on-year with organic growth of almost 26% more than offsetting the 14% depreciation of the Naira against the dollar and the Kuwait disposal. As a reminder, Naira average FX rate was NGN 1,316 to the dollar in Q1 of last year and NGN 1,527 to the dollar in Q1 of this year. We should caution that given how the Naira has moved in 4Q '24, 1Q '25 and now into 2Q '25, we reset our Nigeria contracts at the beginning of January 2025 at a higher rate than the 1Q '25 average rate turned out to be as the Naira was appreciating in the first quarter. This results in a quarter of FX tailwind in the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was up more than 36% year-on-year, while the adjusted EBITDA margin was up 1,320 basis points, again comparing to the low point of 1Q '24 as well as reflecting our continued cost control and the resilience of our financial model through contract resets. Meanwhile, ALFCF increased by approximately 248%, driven by improved profitability, a low quarter of maintenance CapEx, and the rephasing of interest payments between quarters following the November bond refinancing, where our bond payments will now reflect in the second and fourth quarters of each year. To put some numbers to this, if we look solely at the phasing of interest on our various Group-level dollar bonds, they carry interest of $11 million in each of Q1 and Q3 versus $70 million in each of Q2 and Q4. Our level of CapEx investment decreased by 18% in the quarter, largely driven by the pullback in CapEx as we continue to focus on improving cash generation. And finally, our consolidated net leverage ratio decreased to 3.4x having peaked at 3.9x in the second and third quarter of 2024, including a reduction of 0.3x from the fourth quarter to the end of this quarter, well within our target of 3x to 4x. Slide 9 shows the components of our 1Q '25 revenue on a consolidated basis, where you can see how the business delivered a quarter of growth despite the impact of the Naira devaluation and the Kuwait disposal. From a constant currency perspective, revenue grew approximately 8%, driven primarily by CPI escalations, new colocations, and new lease amendments, positive signs of the fundamental underlying tenancy growth continuing across our key markets. The strong organic revenue growth of 26% was supplemented by the benefits of our FX resets and power protection mechanisms. The right side again shows the organic growth rates of each of our segments for the quarter, where our Nigeria segment grew approximately 46%, including a large benefit from FX resets and despite the initial impact of the financial terms in the renewed and extended contracts with MTN Nigeria. On Slide 10, you can see our consolidated revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EBITDA margins for 1Q '25. Specifically, in 1Q '25, our adjusted EBITDA was $253 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 57.5%, continuing the trend of higher margins post the 1Q '24 dip from that Naira devaluation. On to Slide 11, we show adjusted levered free cash flow. In the first quarter of '25, we generated ALFCF of $150 million, a 248% increase year-over-year, in line with our expectations and primarily due to the increase in adjusted EBITDA, low maintenance CapEx in the quarter and a decrease in net interest paid driven by the rephasing of interest payments. As I mentioned just earlier, the bond payments will now reflect in the second and fourth quarter of the year. In addition, we benefited from the decrease in the withholding tax rates in Nigeria from 10% to 2%. Our ALFCF cash conversion rate was 59.3%. On to CapEx. And in the first quarter, CapEx of $44 million decreased 18% year-on-year, continuing last year's trend. The decrease was driven by lower CapEx on fiber and augmentation CapEx and a decline in new site CapEx, although we still retain a healthy level of new site build in Brazil. On the segment review on Slide 12, I'll start as usual with Nigeria. But following the six rate hikes we saw in 2024, the Monetary Policy Committee has continued to keep interest rates steady with the NPR at 27.5%. Nigeria's FX market stabilized in the first quarter of '25 and the Naira averaged NGN 1,527 to the dollar in the quarter, albeit an increase year-over-year, but down from the NGN 1,629 as of the fourth quarter 2024. USD liquidity remains good. We've seen a small decrease in the FX reserves to $38.3 billion at the end of March from $40.9 billion at the end of December last year. And inflation has remained stable at 24.2% as of March. The government continues to make macroeconomic progress and investor confidence seems to be returning. For IHS in Nigeria, 1Q '25 revenue of $271 million increased 19% year-on-year on a reported basis, driven primarily by FX resets from the low of 1Q '24 to now, power indexation, escalations, and tenancy growth. Offsetting factors include the impact of the financial terms in the renewed MTN Nigeria MLAs, including the approximate $1.6 million reduction in revenue year-on-year from the associated reduction in tenancies and lease amendments that I mentioned earlier. Separately, lease amendments continue to be an important driver of growth, increasing 1.4% year-on-year as our customers add additional equipment to our sites, notwithstanding the MTN Nigeria churn. 1Q '25 segment adjusted EBITDA in Nigeria was $179 million, a 74.1% increase from a year ago, with the first quarter of last year negatively impacted by the Naira devaluation in that period. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin was up 2,080 basis points to 66%, given the increase in revenue we've already discussed and along with the reduction in cost of sales and admin expenses, primarily due to the devaluation of the Naira. In our Sub-Saharan African segment, revenue decreased 8.1% and segment adjusted EBITDA increased 2.9% year-on-year. This performance was primarily due to lower revenues, but also lower associated costs being recognized in South Africa following the unwind of the power managed services agreement with MTN South Africa that took effect in the second quarter of 2024. These revenue changes have no impact on segment adjusted EBITDA. The performance has further benefited from new colocations, lower power generation costs, security services and maintenance costs. Segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased 640 basis points as a result to 59.4%. In our Latam segment, towers and tenants grew by 6.7% and 8.2%, respectively, versus the first quarter of last year. Revenue decreased by 0.5% because of negative movements in FX rates, but was broadly offset by continued growth in tenants, lease amendments, and new sites. In Brazil, our second largest market with 8,400 towers, macro conditions were more benign this quarter as the Brazilian real was largely flat against the dollar, and there were moderate increases in both interest rates and inflation. Moving to Latam profitability, while segment adjusted EBITDA increased by 5%, segment adjusted EBITDA margin increased 420 basis points versus the first quarter of 2024, which mostly reflects the reduction in costs more than offsetting the decrease in revenue. As we mentioned last quarter, given our Kuwait disposal and our decision not to commence operations in Egypt, MENA is no longer a reportable segment. Moving to Slide 14, we look at our capital structure and related items. At March 31, 2025, we had approximately $4 billion of external debt and IFRS 16 lease liabilities. Of the $4 billion, approximately $2.2 billion represents our bond financings. Most recently, post the end of the first quarter in April this year, the outstanding balance of approximately $86 million equivalent on our Nigeria term loan was fully prepaid using local Naira cash. This Naira term loan carried a high interest rate and is in line with our focus to reduce debt, particularly high-interest debt. Cash and cash equivalents was $629 million as of March 31, bringing our total liquidity to $929 million. In terms of where that cash is held, approximately 29% was held in Naira at our Nigeria business. But as I just explained, some of that local Naira cash was used to pay down debt post quarter end. Consequently, while our consolidated net debt was relatively flat at $3.3 billion quarter-over-quarter, our consolidated net leverage ratio of 3.4x at the end of Q1 was down 0.3x versus the end of December 2024. And as Sam previously highlighted, the 3.4x leverage does not reflect any proceeds from the Rwanda disposal. We expect leverage to remain within the bottom half of our target 3x to 4x net leverage ratio in 2025, supplemented by the cash proceeds from the Rwanda disposal once it closes and any other further disposals. Moving to Slide 15. Given that the first quarter has been in line with our expectations, we're maintaining our 2025 guidance. As a reminder, our guidance shows further growth in 2025 versus 2024 in our revenues when excluding the impact of the Kuwait disposal and growth in adjusted EBITDA and ALFCF. A couple of points I'd like to further highlight. Firstly, we had a strong first quarter of ALFCF with $150 million generated in the quarter. This phasing of ALFCF through the year was expected and known to us when we set our guidance at the Q4 results. And as I mentioned earlier, the majority of our interest is paid in Q2 and Q4. Given this and the timing of maintenance CapEx plans, we continue to expect to step down in ALFCF in the second quarter, leaving us on track for our 2025 outlook of $350 million to $370 million. Secondly, we continue to assume a full year of contribution from Rwanda in our guidance. However, we expect to close the disposal of our Rwandan operations announced today during the second half of 2025. Should we need to update our outlook for a lower contribution during this year, we will do so following the completion of the transaction. This now brings us to the end of our formal presentation. We thank you for your time today. And operator, please now open the line for questions.

Operator, Operator

Our first question for today comes from Jim Schneider of Goldman Sachs.

James Schneider, Analyst

I just wanted to sort of confirm that the Q1 performance, which is quite strong relative to the Street estimates, was indeed sort of in line or roughly in line with your expectations. Maybe anything that you think was a little bit better than you expected in the quarter? I think maybe some of the Sub-Saharan Africa results were a little bit below expectations, but otherwise, quite strong across the board. And maybe just kind of as you think about the outlook for 2025, significant beat relative to the Street. How would you encourage us to think about any risk to the remainder of the year? Is there anything in the underlying business that gives you pause? Or do you think about the 2025 guidance reiteration as more conservatism?

Steve Howden, CFO

Jim, it's Steve. Thank you for the question. Yes, you're correct. We exceeded our expectations in Q1. As I mentioned earlier, our results aligned with our forecasts. To address your initial question, yes, the quarter performed as we anticipated. It was a solid start to the year. A few points to highlight: From a revenue standpoint, we benefited from favorable foreign exchange conditions, particularly in Nigeria during Q1, as the Naira appreciated from Q4, leading to our contracts resetting at a higher rate than what the average turned out to be for the quarter. This effect will normalize in Q2. Additionally, concerning the 1,050 tenancies transitioning from MTN Nigeria, the progress was slightly slower than planned but remains on track, providing some tailwind in Q1. Regarding carrier performance, which reflects industry health, we're seeing strong fundamentals from major customers, especially in Nigeria, where a 50% increase in subscriber tariffs approved in Q1 is now beginning to show results. Recently, several of our larger clients reported very positive Q1 results and a significantly optimistic outlook for 2025. Overall, we're in a good position. I'd also like to reiterate that a substantial portion of the ALFCF is related to the timing of interest payments. We pay semiannual coupons on our bonds, which are structured so that we incur higher interest payments in Q2 and Q4 compared to Q1 and Q3. This accounts for the variance, but we remain on track for the full year as expected.

James Schneider, Analyst

That's helpful information. I wanted to follow up on the asset sale program and congratulate you on the agreement for Rwanda. Can you provide some insight? Sam, I noticed that your language regarding the evaluation of potential asset sales has shifted a bit. Should I take that to mean that you've completed the initial phase of the planned sales, and any further sales would be based on opportunities? Or are you still actively seeking other options? Thank you.

Sam Darwish, Chairman and CEO

Hi Jim, look, we have made material gains towards our strategic goals as established last year. We continue to take actions, including organic actions. And I think they're beginning to show in the results. Now we still believe, however, that the share price is undervalued. So we will definitely continue to consider other options, alternatives, strategic potentially even disposals, among other things, to unlock and return shareholder value. So that's a continuous program.

Steve Howden, CFO

I just want to emphasize that we remain focused on our key priorities, which include profitability and generating cash flow. We have made progress with our asset disposals, but we will continue to explore further opportunities. We have streamlined the company, positioning ourselves more strategically. This will lead us to reevaluate our capital allocation towards the end of this year and into early next year to determine our next steps. We are also making headway on our balance sheet, which aligns with our goals. Overall, we are moving in the right direction and expect to see more execution in the coming quarters. We’re in a good position.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Rollins of Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Michael Rollins, Analyst

Thanks for taking the questions and good morning. So on the sale of Rwanda, can you give us a sense of what the annual organic growth is in that portfolio relative to how you perceive growth in the rest of your portfolio, just to kind of appreciate the characteristics of that asset versus what's left within the company? And then related to that, if we can extrapolate that a little bit in terms of the algorithm. So as you look out on a multiyear basis, how would you describe the annual financial growth algorithm? So what organic revenue growth should be on average over a multiyear period, how that translates to EBITDA and then to the ALFCF per share growth rate? Thank you so much.

Steve Howden, CFO

Hi Mike, so in terms of Rwanda, obviously, we're bound a little bit by what we have and haven't disclosed. But to give you an idea, that business is about a 2.05 lease-up rate. So just over 2 unique tenants on each tower. And it's a market with really sort of 2 to 3 key carriers, right? So it's reached a point where a lot of the growth has happened. There is certainly still growth ahead of it in that market. Rwanda is a pretty forward-thinking economy. They're looking a lot at digitization and they're looking a lot of 4G and then 5G rollout. So there is still some room to grow there. But it came against the backdrop of us wanting to realize our own strategic initiatives. We feel like we've got a pretty good deal done there to a good partner in Paradigm who know the African continent very well. So it's really a meeting of the minds in terms of achieving all the things we wanted to do. How does that compare to other segments in SSA? Look, I think we've said previously that if we walk through the SSA segment, you have countries like Rwanda, Zambia, Cameroon, and Côte d'Ivoire. They're all more growth-oriented businesses where I would expect to see kind of double-digit growth year-on-year. South Africa is a bit slower than that. We've always said that's probably more of a single-digit grower each year. So that's kind of the outlook in terms of that particular segment. More broadly around the Group, look, we continue to reiterate what we said before. We want to be growing revenue at double digits certainly organically, preferably in dollar terms. That is obviously not implicit within our guidance for this year given the variety of things that the company is moving through, including some of the churn and we've disposed of businesses, which means the base is smaller this year than it was last year. But when you look through our guidance, we've got an implied 12% organic growth at a revenue level, we have a higher implied growth at EBITDA level, and we have an even higher implied growth at ALFCF level. And that's how we kind of want to be looking at this business organically. Yes, we want to grow revenue, but we want to grow EBITDA quicker than we're growing revenue. We want to grow ALFCF quicker than we're growing EBITDA such that we're a growth, profitable, cash-generative infrastructure play. Continue to target 67% plus EBITDA margin. That will take a number of years, but we continue to move forward with that. ALFCF continue to target to get our business itself into the mid-40s. And then at some point, hopefully, we break the 50% margin level. So those are kind of the ways we think about the business as a whole.

Michael Rollins, Analyst

And as you think about returns of capital to shareholders, what's your sense on timing for an update there? And how are you thinking about buybacks versus dividends versus just reducing your debt levels much further and getting that down as much as you can over the next few years?

Steve Howden, CFO

Yes. So maybe I'll take those in reverse order. So we've been very public and very consistent with the first part of our initiatives, which was to increase profitability, increase cash flow generation, raise some disposal proceeds from asset sales, and pay down some debt, okay? And we're obviously still executing against that. We've announced today the Rwanda agreement, and that's got to move through the process to completion and obviously, realization of those proceeds. So debt paydown continues to be a key focus for us. One of the things which is within the disclosure today, didn't happen in the quarter, happened just after the quarter. We paid down approximately $86 million of the term loan that we had in Nigeria. That was our highest interest-bearing facility in the Group. So we paid that down post quarter end just with excess local cash. So all of the balance sheet initiatives continue at a pace, and we feel pretty good about those leverage should be down towards the end of the year. And then as it goes to wider capital allocation and maybe taking a different route, you mentioned things like share buybacks, like dividends, absolutely on our radar, and that's kind of a topic that we're looking at as we get a little bit further into the execution of all the initiatives. So maybe a quarter or two's time, we'll be assessing that in the background and let's see towards the end of this year, early next year.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Gustavo Campos of Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.