Earnings Call Transcript - ITUB Q4 2025

Operator, Operator

Hello. Good morning, everyone. My name is Gustavo, and it's a pleasure to have you with us for our fourth quarter 2025 earnings video conference. As always, Milton will review our performance. After that, we will have our traditional Q&A session where analysts and investors can interact with us directly. Before turning it over to Milton, I’d like to share a few instructions to help you make the most of today’s event. For those accessing the webcast through our website, there are three audio options available: the entire content in Portuguese, in English, or the original audio. Today's presentation can be downloaded from the screen on the host side and is also available on our Investor Relations website. With that, I will hand it over to Milton, and we will reconvene later for the Q&A session. Milton, it's your turn.

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Good morning. Welcome to another earnings release. Today, we will review the results for the fourth quarter of 2025. I will also discuss our outlook for the coming year and provide guidance for 2026. Additionally, I will share an overview of our journey so far, highlighting our progress over recent years and the key achievements in 2025 to give greater transparency into our agenda at the bank, although not exhaustively. Let me begin by revisiting our history, first reinforcing the pillars that have guided us and proven essential to our management model. Client centricity remains our top priority and the central focus of the entire organization. Delivering on this commitment has required a comprehensive cultural and digital transformation within the bank over the past years. While this is an ongoing process, the advancements have been highly significant. Our risk management culture is a distinct competitive advantage. We maintain a long-term perspective and the ability to thoroughly assess all risks to which the conglomerate is exposed daily. Risk management is fully integrated across all business areas and is not solely the responsibility of the risk division, which is why I emphasize this pillar as a competitive differentiator. Capital allocation is another key area of focus in our management and daily decision-making models, as well as in our remuneration structures. We maintain strict capital allocation discipline, choosing the right place to allocate capital at the right price and with appropriate returns, always with a client-focused forward-looking perspective, which is fundamental. The modernization of our technology platform and data architecture has been a critical enabler of all our achievements. We have made years of substantial investment and transformational changes in our platforms, including the modernization and simplification of our legacy systems, which are now scheduled for decommissioning. Therefore, we remain highly optimistic about the potential of this agenda, particularly with the ongoing review of our data architecture. We have developed a much more centralized architecture with a single source of information for the entire bank, democratized data across the organization, and created a cloud-based data mesh. This evolution has significantly enhanced our capacity to apply artificial intelligence to our business, from launching new products and improving client interaction to process optimization and productivity gains. This transformation has been instrumental in achieving these improvements. Lastly, let's discuss strategic cost management and efficiency. This is not merely about cutting costs. Efficiency is a core guiding principle across the bank. We have been able to invest significantly in this transformation while delivering strong results and profitability, with revenue growth outpacing cost increases over the years as reflected in our efficiency ratio. With all these investments made in technology, platforms, and the digitalization of the organization, we have entered a critical phase of scalability. Operational scale is now essential, especially for certain business lines, which I will detail shortly. How does this translate into results? Our loan portfolio grew by 40% during this period, a significant increase. During this process, we also executed a relevant derisking of certain portfolios that did not deliver adequate returns according to our portfolio management framework, which is one of the core disciplines within our risk management culture and capital allocation pillar. This relevant derisking protected us from several million in potential losses and from a deterioration of key delinquency indicators. It also left our portfolio significantly stronger and better positioned with higher quality to support future growth. In terms of numbers, we saw a notable expansion in ROE, rising from 19.3% in 2021 to 23.4%, a substantial increase in the period. Our efficiency ratio improved from 44% to 38.8%, representing a significant reduction as well. During this period, we distributed BRL 105 billion in cash dividends, equating to a payout ratio of 57.9% in the period. In other words, we generated strong value creation and profitability, maintaining discipline in cost and efficiency management, which translated into significant returns for our shareholders.

Operator, Operator

We're back in the studio with Milton and Gabriel for the Q&A. Before we begin, we want to inform you that we will answer the questions in the language they are asked, in both English and Portuguese.

Thiago Bovolenta Batista, Analyst

Congratulations on the strong results that Itaú has delivered once again. I have two topics to address in one question: the bank's profitability and its capital. A few years back, we would not have imagined achieving an ROI of 24% to 25%. My question is whether this level is sustainable. Can we expect the ROI to remain at this threshold in the coming years? Additionally, regarding the bank's leverage, a few years ago the target was 13.5% Tier 1, which is not far from the current core capital of 11.5% to 12%. However, we have encountered some challenges since then. Costs have increased, and there are complexities with capital hedging abroad, which have reduced capital capacity. Can you maintain an ROI of 24% to 25%, and will there be any adjustments in leverage over time to sustain this ROI?

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Thiago, it's great to see you again. Thank you for your question. We're pleased with our results and are optimistic about the future. Regarding profitability, we don't provide long-term ROI guidance, but for this year, our profitability targets are nearly aligned with what we observed in 2025. The midpoint of this year’s guidance suggests we should experience growth similar to what we achieved from 2024 to 2025, while maintaining a strong bottom line. I currently see no reason to doubt our ability to meet the ROI levels suggested in our guidance. Of course, the year is dynamic, and it’s crucial for us to maintain a spread over the cost of capital. We anticipate a cycle of declining interest rates, and we’ll be monitoring how the risk premium for equity costs in Brazil develops throughout the year. Even though interest rates may decrease, we have a long way to go regarding our bank's leverage. You’re right; our overhead has introduced some volatility to the capital index, and we’re experiencing some fluctuations in our portfolios due to foreign currency. Our hedging policy has been effective, although there are opportunity costs involved. Nevertheless, it provides predictability, which is vital for our bank's management and dividend distribution. When we set our capital appetite at 11.5%, having reduced it from 12%, this was approved by our Board. For dividend distribution, we maintain a buffer of 50 basis points, which offers us the security needed to grow robustly and capitalize on opportunities without risking our appetite or needing to adjust our capital index under pressure. Being well-capitalized is a competitive advantage, especially since conditions can shift rapidly, as we witnessed during the pandemic. Currently, our main limitation in reviewing leverage involves the ratings agencies. We want to avoid increasing leverage and jeopardizing our rating, which is essential for maintaining competitive capital costs. Even though our foreign capital capture is lower than in the past, a strong international rating opens up better opportunities. This is an ongoing point of discussion for us. The current year may bring more volatility, especially with the upcoming elections and uncertainties. A review of our leverage isn’t likely this year, but it’s a topic frequently addressed in our meetings with the agencies to gauge potential impacts on our ratings. I don't anticipate progress on this discussion until 2026, but we may consider revisiting leverage based on future outlooks, and we'll bring it to the Board when the time is right.

Operator, Operator

Now we'll turn it over to Bernardo Guttmann from XP. The floor is yours.

Bernardo Guttmann, Analyst

Congratulations on the results. The level of profitability that the bank is achieving is impressive, with a return on investment of 27% in Brazil. I plan to further investigate those efficiencies in the future. Considering the guidance on expenses that are not tied to interest rates, it appears that expenses are low, particularly with some temporary negative adjustments in infrastructure expected in 2026. The key takeaway is that 2026 will reflect a significant change in the cost base, allowing the bank to enter 2027 with a cleaner and more efficient structure, which will serve as a driver for operational leverage moving forward. Thank you.

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

It’s great to see you again. Thank you for your kind words. The answer is yes, we are reaping the benefits of our previous years of investment in technology and focusing on enhancing productivity through the digital transformation of our banking platforms. We are reevaluating our client service models to provide a more digital experience. The recent slide I presented outlined the segments that we have been referencing and those that we can scale, which is where we will achieve most of the efficiencies in the coming years. We projected a 94% efficiency rate by the end of 2026, which includes assumptions for this year's guidance. Moving forward, we are confident this is a viable path. We are committed to operational efficiency, but it's not just a matter of reducing infrastructure without a strategy. It's a thorough examination of our investments over the years. Importantly, these reductions are happening below the inflation rate, despite rising payroll and other expenses that exceed inflation. The projected growth rate of 3.5% for the midpoint of the guidance for 2026 reflects significant investment volumes as we continue to invest in our long-term business and platforms, prioritizing our most critical areas. Our focus is on value creation and enhancing our capacity to generate revenue while absorbing investments and transforming our organization deeply. Now, we are entering a phase of deliverables that helps us expand our investments. We have already made investments in various businesses and will maintain a long-term perspective, aiming for sustainable growth without compromising our future. We strive for increased productivity and operational scalability. Gabriel is here leading this initiative at the bank, which involves all business areas, each facing their own challenges. Some segments are more efficient than others, but I remain optimistic about our deep journey of adjustment and scalability.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is for Renato regarding Autonomous.

Renato Meloni, Analyst

Congratulations on the results. I wanted to expand on the previous questions regarding the return on investment. It seems natural that we are experiencing a reduction in capital costs in Brazil, which is leading to a drop in ROI. As you mentioned, generating value is crucial. I would like to understand more about the long-term strategies you foresee for expanding this value generation. Are we operating at a reasonable level? You've talked about efficiency, but I recall a previous comment stating that as you implement this efficiency, some of the benefits are passed on to clients. Perhaps there are other strategies that could generate additional value. Also, can you clarify the guidance here? When we consider the growth of the financial margin and the portfolio, it appears to indicate a reduction in that line. However, I assume the anticipation of dividends also plays a role in this. Can you briefly discuss how sensitive this line is to interest rates and how you expect it to evolve throughout the year?

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Thank you, Renato, for your insights and for joining our call. The growth opportunities are widely distributed across the business. We have been managing our portfolio with a focus on quality for many years, emphasizing disciplined capital allocation. Generating returns below the cost of capital will ultimately erode value over time. This discipline is crucial for maintaining profitability throughout various cycles with a long-term perspective. Efficiency and cost management remain vital, but fundamentally, we need to understand costs as being linked to revenue. We have delved deeply into enhancing customer engagement, which is a significant milestone in our history. We are experiencing double-digit growth in some portfolios. There are several levers to consider; while costs are one aspect, our primary focus is on efficiency and our ability to drive revenue growth alongside productivity costs. This allows us to offer more streamlined, digital experiences for our clients while simplifying our value proposition and the overall banking process with our ongoing transformation. Part of our technological modernization involves retiring outdated systems within a few years, which will enable us to operate on a more variable cost basis and simplify our internal processes, enhancing our technology delivery speed. We have observed a 2,000% increase in growth, and now we can develop and launch products five times faster than before. Our ability to deliver value has significantly improved, and we will keep pursuing opportunities, regularly assessing our cost of equity and capital through monthly reviews as part of our COPI meetings, which influence our pricing strategy. I don't see a static environment where efficiency gains don't lead to revenue growth. With increased scale, we can create more value, expand our portfolio, and improve returns through cross-selling. Some of the efficiency gains should be reflected in our pricing, which will help us evolve into a more competitive platform. We are currently competitive in terms of funding costs and are working to lower our unit costs, which have decreased by 45% in this timeframe, and we see more room for reductions. As volumes increase, average unit costs continue to drop, which is key to our strategy. Regarding margins, I want to provide some clarity. If we consider the anticipated dividend delta from '25 to '24, we expect a reduction of about BRL 1.5 billion in margin through '26. If you're wondering why the margin is growing slightly slower than the portfolio with a midpoint growth of 7.5% and client margin growth of 7%, an adjustment would show the margin actually growing by 8.1% for the year. This normalized margin provides insight into the bank's value generation dynamics and compares favorably to a 7.5% portfolio growth. This adjustment plays a role in explaining potential fluctuations, although they are not highly significant. We have adjustments in the consolidated net interest income and the net cost of credit interest income, which is crucial information and stands at 110 basis points. This showcases that our core organic growth is progressing at a healthy pace with appropriate risk, balance, and value generation for our shareholders.

Operator, Operator

Next question, Yuri Fernandes from JPMorgan.

Yuri Fernandes, Analyst

Congratulations on your results. The quality of credit lines is improving and positively impacting short-term deliverables, which is beneficial for the medium to long term. I wanted to focus on the small and medium-sized enterprises. How will these deliverables affect the profitability of the bank? We had a very strong quarter with a growth in rede above 20%, which is double the industry rate. Additionally, the portfolio expanded by 9%, while the benchmark is around 3%. Our share may not be directly comparable since we don't have the entire expanded portfolio, but we are noticing developments in payments and credit volumes, which Itau has just begun to implement. This should yield positive results. Considering that SMEs and previous investors have had returns on investment exceeding 30% to 35%, which is a highly profitable segment, how does this influence the return on equity? We expect to see SMEs gaining more traction, which should enhance retail ROE, although we might face some pricing competition, as this could be a significant lever for profitability.

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Thank you, Yuri. It's great to see you and I appreciate your time and the introductory comments. In our SME segment, we categorize our offerings into micro, small, and medium businesses, blending what we refer to as BU PJ, which includes companies and the middle market managed by Itau BBA. This represents a combination of both sectors. When considering the business model and profitability, we analyze BU PJ within retail and the middle market while integrating it with our wholesale structure. We've achieved outstanding results in both middle market and retail companies due to a thorough strategic review and reorganization we've conducted over the years. Our portfolio management has positioned us to capitalize on opportunities, allowing us to grow alongside our clients with a long-term perspective, emphasizing disciplined capital allocation. We recognize that the pricing in this market can be unpredictable, so we continually assess our potential returns from several key operations within these segments. Our approach prioritizes disciplined management aimed at serving clients fully, which necessitates a holistic understanding of the payment flow, where the integration of Rede with the bank has been crucial. The volume of acquirers in the market only represents a small portion of the overall payment and receivable flow, underscoring the significance of flow share over market share. Delivering a cohesive value proposition to clients has driven our growth and quality, resulting in high profitability in this segment. Moving forward, we anticipate an increase in our bottom line without expecting a significant expansion in segment profitability, as we already exceed the profitability levels previously discussed. Our strategic reviews are ongoing, and we've recently completed another assessment for both companies and individuals. We remain optimistic about the future and the execution of our value delivery plans, which play a central role in our BU companies strategy. We've meticulously tested new technology informed by client feedback and powered by AI, leading to impressive advances. Our platform houses a comprehensive array of products tailored to the needs of smaller companies and their digital requirements. It’s essential to address clients’ specific challenges effectively. The platform plays an integral role in ensuring we provide exceptional service to our client base. I don't foresee an increase in retail ROI since we've already achieved a critical recovery since the third quarter of 2022, addressing previous concerns about profitability levels. We have experienced a significant improvement of 10 percentage points in sustainable retail profitability. All our businesses are now generating value and operating above the cost of capital, suggesting a balanced portfolio. While I don’t predict a considerable expansion of ROI, I do observe a consistent growth in the results from these segments.

Operator, Operator

We're going to switch to English as we have Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.

Daer Labarta, Analyst

Congratulations on the strong results, which have been very consistent over the years. Milton, my question is about the competitive environment. Over the past decade, we have seen significant changes in the competitive landscape in Brazil, and it is still evolving. Many of your established competitors have had to adjust their business models, while a number of fintechs have grown quite strong. You've managed to adapt very well. Your profitability indicates that every business is operating above the cost of capital. Given this context, what are your concerns? Is it your incumbent competitors, many of whom are targeting the high-income segments where you excel? Is it the fintechs? Are there particular segments that you worry about more than others? You've already mentioned you are a leader in private payroll, which is a new segment. What concerns do you have about this competitive environment? Additionally, what excites you? Where do you see opportunities to maintain these results, and where do you perceive potential risks?

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Thank you, Tito. It's great to see you and I appreciate your kind words. We're proud of our achievements, and thank you for participating in our call. First and foremost, we hold a great deal of respect for our competitors. As you know, our company has a diverse portfolio of businesses. In the wholesale sector, we compete with both established banks and new entrants. Depending on the segment, the competitive landscape varies significantly. Our ability to understand client needs, recognize our competitors, maintain humility, and always look externally to identify best practices has helped us transform the organization over the years. Today, I don't see any significant challenges in competing in any segment, despite the intense competition we face from various sources. Again, we have immense respect for our competitors in Brazil, where there is strong competition. Everyone is working hard to improve, and we must also strive to enhance our services quickly. We've made considerable progress in this regard in recent years, and I see several factors that will drive us forward. First and foremost is our human capital. We are confident that we have talented individuals within our organization who are passionate about their work. Our strong culture gives us a competitive edge. Our ability to allocate capital effectively is crucial, as is our discipline in focusing on the long term rather than immediate results. We are investing heavily across all our businesses in modernization, including enhancements to our platforms, data architecture, client engagement strategies, and the deployment of AI in both internal and external applications, which positions us competitively. Looking at our strategy for 2025, we are currently in execution mode after a major restructuring of our retail operations. Small and medium enterprises are also undergoing significant changes as we look forward. The approaches that brought us success thus far may not necessarily yield similar results in the future. We must consistently maintain a forward-looking mindset and set high standards for ourselves to achieve great outcomes. What concerns me the most is the competition, the macroeconomic environment, and the service level we provide to our clients. This is what motivates us. I believe we have the inherent capability to succeed. Our talented workforce, strong culture, and execution capabilities are key factors that can propel us forward. We must remain vigilant regarding macroeconomic conditions. Given the size of our bank, such factors do influence pricing. We also prioritize risk management, and I believe we have an excellent risk culture. Everyone, from frontline employees to higher management, is fully focused on managing risk effectively. We have a dedicated risk management team that collaborates with all our businesses, helping to identify risks, evaluate options, and make informed decisions daily. This summarizes our efforts and what we're focusing on within the organization.

Operator, Operator

Going back to Portuguese with Gustavo Schroden. The floor is yours.

Gustavo Schroden, Analyst

Congratulations on the strong results. I have a follow-up question regarding Tito, specifically about two segments that have been massified. Recently, INSS, which is Brazil's social security, was mentioned. Milton noted that having a lower service cost would be ideal to manage the higher delinquency levels in the massified segment and in INSS, especially after the recent changes in the cap that have led to lower interest rates. The efficiency level in Brazil is quite low, at 36%. Given all the adjustments the bank has made in its infrastructure, Milton, I would like to hear more specifically about those two segments. Is there an appetite for them? Is there potential profitability?

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Sure. When we discuss the mass market, we often simplify things. The focus is on medium to high-income segments that are scalable and where operational scalability is critical. This focus allows us to offer a more competitive value proposition to our clients, enhancing our efficiency. We engage with a diverse range of clients across all income levels, both low and high, and many of them demonstrate resilience throughout economic cycles. It's not true that lower-income clients lack resilience; some retirees relying on social security, for example, may have lower income but still remain stable over the long term. This applies to our entire portfolio. Our ability to evaluate data and understand client capacities to meet long-term obligations isn't solely dependent on income levels. As we enhance efficiency, our ability to absorb losses also improves, and we continuously reassess our risk appetite. For each client interaction, we analyze costs—whether marginal or absolute. Higher efficiency translates to greater capacity for loss absorption, while inefficiency limits our ability to manage losses and generate returns on invested capital. Our strategy emphasizes operational scalability, maximum efficiency, and comprehensive digital services to better serve clients. This means providing a thorough digital offering, but we also need a complete banking setup to best assist clients. Today, we have an outstanding portfolio, particularly following the migration of 50 million Itaú clients. This migration didn't just enhance the experience for existing clients using the Super App; it also transitioned countless clients who previously lacked a comprehensive banking experience to a new platform, significantly improving their engagement. After our recent results announcement, investors inquired about our payroll loan offerings and digital hiring channels. We've grown efficiently in this area, maintaining low service costs without utilizing cross-subsidies. Our approach to sectors like INSS is focused on digital efficiency, especially considering recent fluctuations in market hiring volumes, which were affected by actions taken against fraud and the verification of benefits by the Ministry and the President of INSS. As a result, our hiring efforts are now more concentrated internally. We've shifted some focus away from external channels due to interest rate caps limiting profitability. Currently, 75% of our subcontracting occurs through banking channels, whether digital or physical. With anticipated interest rate reductions, we believe there will be new opportunities in the INSS sector, allowing us to reach previously untapped markets, which represents substantial potential. Additionally, as the process of benefit reconfirmation stabilizes, we expect demand volume to rise as a result.

Operator, Operator

Next question, Mario Pierry, Bank of America.

Mario Pierry, Analyst

Congratulations on the results not just for this quarter, but over the next five years since you took over the bank. One of the significant advantages is the modernization of the platform and investments in technology. It's noteworthy that the cost of technology has grown 18% in the past 12 months, making up 20% of your total expenses. Milton, how should we approach this moving forward? What level of investment do you foresee is necessary? How do you plan to allocate investments in technology for future revenue growth? Will these investments focus more on improving processes and efficiency, or should we also consider those that drive growth? Additionally, could you provide insight into the expected growth of your portfolio for 2026, segmented by area?

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Thank you, Mario. It's always a pleasure to see you, and I appreciate your kind words. When it comes to our bank's investments, we engage in thorough discussions to ensure we are investing in the right areas with appropriate returns and an understanding of our long-term capacity to absorb these investments. We aim for projects to be accretive and value-generating over time, which is reflected in our ability to project returns. We continuously analyze past investments and their outcomes, seeking to understand changes in performance and adjusting our strategies accordingly. In technology, we maintain our investment levels without reduction; in fact, we experience a natural growth in this area. Adjustments we've made reflect that a significant portion of our costs are tied to our talented human capital, which has evolved over time. Our workforce has shifted drastically, with over 20% now in technology, compared to just 7% a few years ago. This indicates our increased focus on platforms, communities, and enhancing client experience. On the activation of investments, we are disciplined in our approach. We activate only half of what we could, allowing many expenses to pass through operational costs to avoid compromising future growth. This careful management ensures we only activate projects that yield tangible benefits. For regulatory or operational changes that do not offer clear advantages, we refrain from activation to maintain this discipline. We set a maximum activation period of five years, as extending that further could lead to future complications, given the typical lifespan of platforms and systems. Our investment strategy isn't confined to technology; we also consider business expansion, sales force growth, and the development of new products. The rhythm of our investments aligns with revenues, allowing us to project activation and amortization effectively. Regarding future investments, it's challenging to forecast specific areas of growth at this time. However, we've reduced maintenance costs due to our modernization efforts, allowing more resources for new products and features that enhance client benefits. This mix of investments is crucial for improving our relationship with clients and enhancing long-term benefits. As for the growth of our portfolio in 2026, I can assure you that it's well-distributed across segments. While the dynamics of capital markets create some uncertainty for large companies, our other segments—including SMEs and middle market businesses—are consistently growing. All segments are expanding at a healthy pace in alignment with our long-term goals, ensuring resilience and value generation for both the bank and our shareholders.

Operator, Operator

Switching back to English, we have Jorge Kuri with us from Morgan Stanley.

Jorge Kuri, Analyst

Congratulations on the impressive numbers and a 27% return on equity. I wanted to ask about your 2026 credit growth guidance, which seems a bit lacking. Let me explain why. Last year, when you provided the guidance for 2025, the macro environment was more challenging. You anticipated the Selic rate to increase from 12.25% to 15.75%, which negatively impacted credit demand and supply. Unemployment was expected to rise to 6%, as per your guidance. Despite that, you projected credit growth of 4.5% to 8.5%, and you successfully achieved around the midpoint of that range. Fast forward to now, and the macro outlook you are expecting for this year looks more favorable. You predict a drop in policy rates from 15% to 12.7%, which should enhance affordability and boost credit demand. Unemployment is expected to stay below the level you anticipated last year, and the economy continues to grow at a solid rate of 2%. Yet, despite this improved macro environment, your credit growth guidance is only marginally higher than last year's forecast, at 5.5% to 9.5%, which is just 1 percentage point above both the low and high ends of that range. Milton, you mentioned significant enhancements in how you manage your consumer and SME platforms that were implemented during 2025, which one would assume would facilitate faster growth, especially given that consumer and SME represent a substantial portion of your loan portfolio. Payroll loans, an important product, had disappointing growth in 2025, increasing only by 1% for the reasons you outlined. Now that rates are declining, this product is very sensitive to those changes. You're also aggressively pursuing seller debt, which suggests there’s potential for higher growth. So, why the relatively cautious guidance? Is it due to increasing competition making it more challenging to maintain market share? Are you actually losing share? Are you being overly cautious about the political climate and opting to pause until October? What other factors are influencing this? Any insights would be greatly appreciated.

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Thank you, Jorge. It's good to see you, and I understand your question. I'll try to be clear and concise in my response. I hope that we can achieve better results and growth in 2026. However, in our planning, we must consider the uncertainties ahead. The macroeconomic outlook is one perspective, but we must acknowledge that it is an election year in Brazil, which can introduce volatility. While macro forecasts are made, they often overlook this volatility. We need to consider how investors will react during the election process, the economic plans proposed by candidates, Brazil's long-term debt situation, and potential currency fluctuations. If inflation rises due to exchange rates or food prices, will the Central Bank be able to lower rates to 12.75% by year-end? If rates need to remain high for longer, it will impact our wholesale and SME portfolios. Although we are projecting GDP growth of 1.9%, we must question the nature of that growth—what drives it, whether through fiscal stimulus or productivity, and the current investment landscape in Brazil. Many companies are holding off on decisions while they await election outcomes. Thus, while it may not be a defensive stance, it is a realistic outlook given the uncertainty for 2026. I indeed hope for smooth sailing. We have the capability to adapt and improve based on new information, just as we did last year when we exceeded our guidance. We adjusted our expectations for client financial margins and market financial margins as well as for income taxes. If opportunities arise, we can pivot and communicate our progress. Looking ahead, we can react quickly to whatever happens. If challenges arise, we will adjust accordingly. Our portfolio remains free from capital, liquidity, non-performing loans, and profitability restrictions, allowing us to be agile. It's essential to focus on our long-term delivery capabilities and our ability to adapt to changing cycles. If we decide to grow our portfolio significantly and the macro environment shifts unexpectedly, we have a disciplined approach to avoid regret over past decisions. We always aim for the long term while remaining ready to seize opportunities. The interest rate changes will affect our balance sheet but also bring benefits. We are less sensitive to the CDI rates than the market perceives, and we have hedges in place. As we move into 2026, we will keep a realistic yet cautious outlook regarding the election climate while staying prepared to accelerate our efforts as opportunities arise.

Operator, Operator

Going back to Portuguese. Marcelo Mizrahi with Bradesco.

Marcelo Mizrahi, Analyst

Congratulations on the excellent results and the transparent guidance. My question is regarding the uncertainty surrounding delinquency. I would like your perspective on delinquency trends for individuals and companies, considering the different dynamics at play. As you mentioned, capital markets have affected company liquidity, and we have various government programs in place. How do you anticipate the potential reduction of these programs this year will impact the situation? The bank has recently experienced strong growth in the SME sector. Additionally, there are reforms such as tax reductions and payroll liquidity that are influencing individual lending, particularly with payroll loans. I'm interested in your assessment of delinquency for 2026. I understand there may be variability between quarters, but any insights you could share would be very helpful.

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Marcelo, thank you for your opening remarks. Regarding delinquency, I want to emphasize that we do not anticipate any significant changes in delinquency indicators for 2026. The first quarter typically sees a seasonal increase in delinquency due to the commitments at the start of the year, which tends to cause a rise in delinquency initially. We do not expect this cycle to differ notably from what we've seen in the past. We are already approaching February, and thus far, the cycle seems steady. We do observe some portfolios, particularly in certain industries, facing more pressure regarding delays. This pressure applies to both individuals and SMEs where short delays or controls are consistent across all portfolios, with no significant deviations. In the SMEs sector, we’ve previously discussed the normalization following government programs. While we are currently in a payment period that is impacting short-term delays, the cost of credit remains manageable as our portfolios are well protected. Hence, I would assert that there is no cause for concern regarding our scenario for 2026. Of course, the situation remains dynamic; if interest rates do not align with our forecasts, we may see increased pressure on both businesses and individuals resulting in higher delinquency rates. However, there are positive indicators for employment generation, despite a decrease in overall employment, and investments in labor-intensive sectors are on the rise. The liquidity situation you mentioned is affected by tax assumptions, which contributes to a resilient service inflation rate. Although salaries are growing in Brazil, the burden on disposable income is significant, and while there have been reasonable increases in delays across various products and portfolios, our performance varies when we isolate our delinquency figures. Notably, part of the long-term increase in delays is linked to changes in regulation, which have led many institutions to tighten their write-off criteria, prolonging the cleaning process for their portfolios while simultaneously easing credit costs. We, at the bank, have chosen to operate with the best recovery expectations and chose to maintain our original write-off timelines since day one, despite the flexibility offered by new regulations. This means there have been no changes in portfolio write-offs due to our commitment to recognizing incurred losses instead of anticipated losses. A good way to evaluate this is by looking back over the past three quarters at the levels of non-performing loan (NPL) creation and aligning it with the current write-offs, revealing a direct correlation. For instance, the changes in write-off policy and the adjustment of timelines benefit short-term results, but the overall math indicates a higher risk. Nevertheless, our indicators are well controlled, and the provisioning levels for companies are appropriate. We meticulously review each account, though unexpected events can arise, especially with larger companies, often influenced by factors outside our control, such as fraud. The wholesale aspect is less predictable and requires our vigilant attention, and we ensure we provision adequately in response to any such incidents, maintaining a solid balance in our provisions. The robustness of our provisions across all segments is crucial. Importantly, we remain committed to provisioning appropriately regardless of short-term results. Provisioning decisions are fundamental to managing our portfolio and balance, and we will always prioritize this over short-term profitability.

Operator, Operator

We are switching back to English again, and we have Carlos Gomez-Lopez from HSBC with us. Good to see you, Carlos.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez, Analyst

Among the many good numbers you have sent to us. Perhaps one that impress me the most is the 50% market share in real estate financing among the private banks. Where do you see that market going? And why do you think you have such a presence there that the other banks are not replicating? And then the other question, you're a big consumer of software and IT services. We have seen a big reaction in the market to AIs going into this space and that has affected stocks. As a consumer of these services, have you seen a change in pricing when you're discussing with the providers in the last few months?

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Thank you, Carlos. It's good to see you, and I appreciate your kind words. First, regarding real estate, in the mortgage sector, we hold the largest savings account deposits in Brazil, trailing only Caixa Economica Federal. This positions us competitively in mortgage offerings as we lead the private sector in savings figures. Additionally, all banks have committed 100% of our savings accounts, maintaining a requirement to provide 65% plus demand deposits with the Central Bank. This year, there's a shift allowing the release of an additional 5% of the demand deposits we hold, granting us greater liquidity. Our ability to serve clients competitively stems from this liquidity, which distinguishes us in credit provision. If you compare us to any bank in Brazil with similar rates, our return levels differ because we rely less on treasury funding compared to competitors with larger savings account portfolios. This structural advantage is significant. Moreover, our product offerings and customer experience are not solely price-focused. We’ve invested heavily in enhancing the real estate mortgage experience, recognizing that mortgages foster long-term client relationships. Hence, we've been able to introduce substantial amounts of mortgage financing into the market. We also boast the largest portfolio, particularly when comparing with Caixa Economica Federal and Banco do Brasil, which do not offer mortgages tied to savings accounts but primarily to agriculture. This context underscores our competitive edge. Regarding our partnerships with technology providers, we anticipate considerable market volatility. While some assert there's no bubble in technology due to its global scalability and substantial investments that boost GDP growth, the critical question is identifying which companies will emerge as long-term champions. Like any industry, only a few will dominate, even amid massive investments from many players. Concerns in the equity market often center on whether one is investing in a champion that will last the next five years. The recent surge in prices has led to increased volatility. As a client, we have successfully negotiated favorable terms with our providers, leveraging our established relationships. However, with general processors and GPR services, we face market pricing, which is a common challenge across the board. We aim to secure large, long-term contracts with our providers, emphasizing sustained relationships. This long-term approach helps us manage needs and contract negotiations effectively, mitigating significant price increases. Overall, while current pricing levels are competitive, they haven’t substantially impacted our cost structure.

Operator, Operator

Now the last question, Daniel Vaz, Safra.

Daniel Vaz, Analyst

I wanted to follow up on the previous question regarding the government lines. We've noticed an interesting trend with delinquency and delays, but we're uncertain if the FGI can support the production and rollout for 2026. Could you comment on whether a recapitalization of the funds will be necessary this year based on the size of the production? Additionally, I'm curious about AI. While its effect on cost efficiency is evident, it seems challenging to quantify its potential for revenue growth in business. The bank has always engaged in extensive global benchmarking, and I would like to know if you see clear opportunities for revenue generation from Generative AI and similar technologies.

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Thank you for joining our meeting. Regarding the FGI program, I believe there is a more effective allocation of government resources leading to better outcomes compared to our results, particularly for the Pronampe lines. The BNDES plays a crucial role as the program's manager, and the return on public funds is impressive. We are able to support smaller companies that typically face challenges in securing resources, especially with the favorable terms we offer. I am a strong supporter of this program, as it represents a worthwhile use of public funds that delivers significant results. When we look back at the past few years, we see the amount of credit released, the clients who benefited, and the jobs and investments financed, all contributing to productivity. The program has proven to be successful. However, towards the end of 2024, we recognized that the level of leverage for the guarantees used in the FGI was low. Consequently, we were able to introduce additional resources to the market, which some might refer to as "pocket change." We presented this opportunity to BNDES, and after discussions, they agreed, allowing us to contribute an additional BRL 100 billion to the system. In the last quarter of 2024, this funding was applied significantly, and while not all banks participated, some also contributed to the FGI. For 2026, the budget reflects a stable allocation similar to recent years, but without the additional BRL 100 billion. This creates a perception of reduced resources, as the previous leverage generated supplementary funds. We have engaged with the Ministry and the economic government to ensure transparency in public resource allocation. I don't believe there's a better program than this, and while discussions on future appetite are ongoing, I remain uncertain. The Pronampe program is steady in its growth, but the potential for the FTI will depend on the government’s decisions regarding resource allocation. We require additional funding to maintain production levels similar to the last 15 months, making this decision critical. On the topic of AI, I see it as a lasting agenda that we aim to lead. The modernization of our data architecture positions us well for this new era. To effectively leverage AI, it's essential to utilize the extensive knowledge we've acquired across various areas; otherwise, our model training remains basic and limited. Our approach to training on a large scale, combined with our unique strategies, enhances our efficiency, modeling, customer experiences, internal processes, and overall productivity. We've noted significant advancements, particularly with our client overview. The AI-driven AP platform I mentioned allows for significantly improved client engagement, leading to greater risk tolerance and value generation for the bank. This capability makes us more competitive in the market and enhances our ability to gain clients efficiently without a proportional increase in our sales force. The cost-effective nature of these new B2C models enables us to serve clients simply, enhancing engagement and fostering long-term relationships. The transactional nature of PIX through WhatsApp is another efficient, cost-effective platform that strengthens client loyalty, as they begin using more of our products. Each solution we offer targets different aspects of client needs, creating opportunities to boost revenue while also enhancing our operational efficiency in servicing clients.

Operator, Operator

Thank you, Daniel. Thank you, Milton, and thank you to everyone who participated in our conference call. We have completed our Q&A session and our fourth quarter of '25. I will now hand it over to Milton to conclude the session.

Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO

Thank you, Gustavo. Thank you, Gabriel. Thank you, everyone, for being here and for your questions. I concluded the initial presentation of the slides by discussing discipline, focus, and humility. I would like to emphasize these themes. Additionally, there is an important element, which is seriousness. We understand the necessity of developing business models that are sustainable and that capture the interests of both the system and the client, prior to prioritizing the interests of the bank. Although the market sometimes reflects a different phenomenon, where the interests of the company overshadow the system's interests. Therefore, we need to lead by example. We must do what is right and sustainable, as there is no acceptable way to achieve a wrong outcome. This is our belief. There is no greater responsibility for any institution than to examine their processes and clients within the system and consider the impact we will generate. This is the fundamental responsibility of any financial institution, and it is not something we can pass off to others. It's not the regulator's fault or anyone else's. This responsibility lies with us, and we have the skilled teams capable of understanding and analyzing the data independently. We do not need an auditor or a regulator to determine what is right or wrong. This is our perspective. I am very optimistic, even though this year presents challenges due to uncertainties and the election. I remain enthusiastic about the bank's current position, as we conclude a cycle of deliverables that are robust, consistent, and high quality. Looking ahead, I believe we are well-positioned to deliver a solid year of quality. Execution throughout the year will certainly be important, but I am confident that if the conditions are favorable, we will deliver with great quality and wisdom, avoiding compromising the future while also not attempting to predict it. This aligns with our disciplined approach to capital allocation and value creation. The efficiency agenda is crucial as we navigate the upcoming years. I want to thank you for your participation, your support, and the trust you place in our institution. Everyone here is prepared to work with focus, strength, and in an amazing work environment resulting from the transformations we've undergone over the years, which have yielded remarkable results. We are very optimistic about what we can achieve in the future. Thank you very much, and we will see you soon.