Earnings Call Transcript - JBS Q3 2025

Operator, Operator

Good morning, and welcome to JBS' Third Quarter of 2025 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Any statements eventually made during this conference call in connection with the company's business outlook, projections, operating and financial targets and potential growth should be understood as merely forecasts based on the company's management expectations in relation to the future of JBS. Such expectations are highly dependent on the industry and market conditions and therefore, are subject to change. Are present with us today, Gilberto Tomazoni, Global CEO of JBS; Guilherme Cavalcanti, Global CFO of JBS; Wesley Batista Filho, CEO of JBS USA; and Christiane Assis, Investor Relations Director. Now I'll turn the conference over to Gilberto Tomazoni, Global CEO of JBS. Mr. Tomazoni, you may begin your presentation.

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. The third quarter of 2025 once again demonstrated the strength and consistency of JBS, a global multi-protein platform and more importantly, how we operate with discipline, agility, and resilience. We achieved record net sales with growth across all business units. This performance reinforced the balance and scales of our operation and shows our ability to manage the platform proactively, mitigating the impact of local market cycles. Net income reached $581 million and return on equity over the last 12 months was 23.7%, reflecting solid sustainable performance. We continue to navigate a challenging cattle cycle in the United States, marked by historically high prices and tight supply. Even in this environment, JBS Beef North America delivered record net revenue, supported by resilient domestic demand while cattle availability remained limited. Consumption held steady and the team continues to execute with discipline. Although cutout value remained elevated, they were not sufficient to offset higher cattle costs. Australia was a clear highlight. Profitability stayed strong, supported by improved cattle availability and healthy global demand. The region continues to play an important role in diversifying our geographic exposure and balancing results across protein. In Brazil, Friboi delivered another consistent quarter with solid performance in both export and domestic sales. The team strengthened relationships with key customers through our value creation approach and remains focused on operational excellence and disciplined execution. Seara also posted another quarter of consistent results in a period still impacted by restrictions to exports to Europe and China, which have recently been lifted. The business maintained healthy margins, driven by a disciplined commercial strategy, effective mix management, and continuous innovation in its product portfolio. Initiatives such as the launch of high-protein ready meals, the development of a dedicated Air Fryer portfolio, and a partnership that brings the brand closer to the consumer, including with Netflix, illustrate our growing commitment to innovation and value creation. In the United States, our chicken and pork business also remained resilient. Pilgrim's Pride continues to grow, supported by a diversified portfolio and ongoing efficiency gains. The Prepared Foods segment stood out with sales rising more than 25% in the U.S., while operations in Europe and Mexico also outperformed their markets. In pork, lower grain costs and steady demand created a positive environment, though supply constraints continue to limit overall market growth. These results show how we operate on our global platform, managing scale, efficiency, sharing knowledge across the region, and making quick informed decisions to protect performance. We continue to invest in innovation and value-added products as part of our long-term strategy, strengthening brands and expanding higher-margin categories remains central to sustainable growth. We end the period with leverage of 2.39x, fully aligned with our long-term target. Overall, the company remains stable and well-positioned. Global protein demand continues to rise, and JBS is prepared to capture this growth with a balanced portfolio, solid execution, and a long-term perspective. Thank you again for joining us today. I will now turn the call over to Guilherme, who will walk you through the financial results in more detail.

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

Thank you, Tomazoni. Let's now move on to the operational and financial highlights of the third quarter 2025. Net sales for third quarter 2025 reached a record of $22.6 billion. Adjusted EBITDA in IFRS totaled $1.8 billion, which represents a margin of 8.1% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA in U.S. GAAP comparable totaled $1.6 billion, which represents a margin of 7.2% in the quarter. Adjusted operating income was $1.3 billion with a margin of 5.5% in IFRS and 5.6% in U.S. GAAP comparable. Net income was $581 million in the quarter and earnings per share of $0.52. Excluding nonrecurring items, adjusted net income would be $602 million and earnings per share of $0.54. Finally, the return on equity was 24% and the return on invested capital was 17%. The free cash flow of the third quarter 2025 was $383 million, representing a difference of $612 million compared to the third quarter of 2024, mainly due to the following factors: adjusted EBITDA decreased $319 million, but excluding noncash items, we have a reduction of $230 million, driven by the impact of the beef cycle in the U.S., avian flu in Seara, and higher cattle costs in JBS Brazil, an increase of $226 million in capital expenditures, mainly growth CapEx, an increase of $258 million in working capital, mainly reflecting higher revenues and costs resulting from the increase in livestock prices. Our cash conversion cycles in days remained stable in relation to the previous quarter. Not considering guidance, but simply updating the cash flow breakeven EBITDA exercise, it is expected to increase to $6 billion in 2025 and to $5 billion in 2026, driven by capital expenditures, $2 billion in 2025 and $2 billion in 2026, already including maintenance capex, although the 2026 budget is still to be approved. Working capital is expected to increase to $1.3 billion in 2025 and $700 million in 2026. The 2025 increase in nominal terms is related to higher prices, higher sales volumes, increased cost of livestock, and fulfilling the pipeline of organic expansions. It is worth mentioning that 2026 working capital depends on variables not in the company's control like grains and livestock prices. Legal settlements of $400 million in 2025, biological assets of $650 million in both 2025 and 2026. Interest expenses of $1.15 billion in 2025 and $1.15 billion in 2026. Leasing expenses of $500 million for both 2025 and 2026. Last week, we completed another debt issuance in Brazilian capital markets. The total amount of agribusiness receivables certificates was approximately $570 million, with 2/3 placed in a 40-year tranche, the longest ever completed in the Brazilian capital markets. As a result, our pro forma average debt maturity reached 15.4 years with an average cost of 5.6% per year. Leverage increased to 2.39x in the third quarter against the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to a $319 million decline in the last 12 months EBITDA and the payment of $362 million in share buyback. In this regard, we announced the completion of a $600 million share buyback program. We believe this represents an efficient use of cash given the current valuation multiples relative to our global peers and the leverage at comfortable levels. Even with the share buyback program completed and the $1.2 billion in dividends paid and approximately $1 billion in expansion CapEx, we expect to end the year with leverage below 2.5x. Our $3.4 billion revolving credit lines and $4 billion available cash, combined with the expected cash generation in the coming quarter, provide us with the flexibility to continue executing our expansion CapEx and value creation projects while maintaining a healthy and robust balance sheet. With that in mind, I would like to open the question-and-answer session.

Operator, Operator

Our first question is from Mr. Lucas Mussi from Morgan Stanley.

Lucas Mussi, Analyst

I have two quick questions. The first is about the ongoing expansion CapEx, particularly regarding the Pork expansion at the two plants in Iowa. Can you provide more details on what to expect in terms of revenue or volume growth next year as those additional capacities in U.S. Pork become operational? My second question pertains to U.S. Chicken. The third quarter results for PPC were quite strong in the U.S. However, since chicken prices have significantly decreased heading into the fourth quarter, could you give us an update on what you are observing in terms of profitability, especially in the U.S.? It seems like the commodity segment might be struggling, but there is resilience in other areas of the portfolio. Looking ahead to 2026, do you still anticipate a solid supply and demand outlook, considering the USDA's tight projections on U.S. chicken supply? Additionally, I've heard that one of your competitors is cycling through a newer genetic line that is performing better than the previous one used over the last couple of years. Could you provide more insights on the dynamics of U.S. chicken, both in the short term and looking forward to 2026? Those are my questions.

Wesley Mendonça Filho, CEO of JBS USA

We're expanding our prepared foods operations in the U.S. with two new plants in Iowa. One plant in Perry will focus on sausage production, while the other in Ankeny will produce ready-to-eat bacon and sausage. This expansion is complementary to our existing operations, especially since we currently produce a significant amount of bacon in the U.S. The new sausage production will utilize our meat trims and sow meat from the same facility, enhancing our supply chain. Demand from customers is robust, and we anticipate a quick ramp-up. However, you won't see any immediate impact next year as both plants are still under construction; we're just beginning groundwork on one and will be installing equipment at the other. By 2027, we expect to start generating revenue, with projected revenues between $500 million and $750 million from these new operations in our Pork division. We are also optimistic about achieving higher double-digit margins from this additional business. Overall, we believe the ramp-up will be relatively swift given the synergy on both supply and sales sides.

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

Regarding the chicken price drop in the U.S. market, we have noted a decline in the large bird segment. However, it appears that growth has reached its limits in recent weeks, as there has been a slight increase in prices. In terms of our portfolio, we at PPC maintain a balanced selection, including small, medium, and large birds, along with our Prepared products. We are optimistic about the chicken market in the U.S. and Brazil next year, despite the rise in 1-day old chicks due to limitations in infrastructure and genetic availability. You mentioned the new COVID variant; while it is gradually being introduced, it is not something that can be quickly implemented as it involves genetic considerations that take time. We anticipate improved chicken availability, but the export market remains robust. This year, Brazil is expected to see flat year-to-date figures compared to the previous year, with strong export demand; for example, Brazilian pork has increased by 14% compared to last year while chicken remains steady. This is due to some markets being previously closed, including Europe and China. We believe next year will see a strong export market from Brazil, and we remain confident in the growth of 1-day old chick production next year.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is with Isabella Simonato with Bank of America.

Isabella Simonato, Analyst

I understand you've been discussing higher working capital needs due to increased raw material costs and growth. I’d like to clarify the top-line growth for this quarter or year-to-date. Can you share the overall volume growth and specify how much of that was driven by expansion and new operating lines? We’re trying to link your capital expenditures in expansion to the strong top-line growth. A breakdown of the top-line growth attributable to your organic expansion would be really helpful. Additionally, regarding the chicken market, particularly in Brazil, with the removal of bans from Europe and China, could you elaborate on how you view the export market in the fourth quarter and discuss the dynamics of the mix including the domestic market of Seara?

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

Isabella, so the major part of the working capital consumption was really due to prices. In terms of volumes, I would highlight Pilgrim's Pride and JBS Brazil had an increase in volumes of 3% and Seara, in which we have been making investments in organic expansion, we had volumes growing by 8%. So on the other hand, again, we have been in some business units where prices went up 16%, sometimes 24%. So basically, the main variable that increased revenues was prices, which consequently led to an increase in working capital.

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

The question about, Isabella, regarding the chicken market, if I understood correctly, it's about the Brazilian chicken market and how we see that export market in this next quarter and next year. Is it correct?

Isabella Simonato, Analyst

Yes, especially because the main headwind, which was the ban from China and Europe, I understand that's gone. So...

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

Yes, they have lifted the restrictions from Europe and China. These are two significant markets for Brazil because Brazil tailors to the demands of these markets, which are very important. Even for Seara, which holds a strong market share in Europe, the reopening there makes a considerable difference. And of course, for China, it impacts all markets significantly. Seara leads the export market from Brazil and faced more challenges than others. However, I see that the market is robust; we are not observing any demand constraints. Demand remains strong, and we anticipate it will continue next year as the overall demand for protein stays high, not only for chicken but also for beef and pork. Brazil's exports this year compared to last year show a 14% increase in pork, while chicken remained stable due to restrictions. Next year, I believe Brazil will return to its previous performance. Furthermore, as I mentioned earlier, we foresee an increase in chicken supply in the market. Nevertheless, growth has its limits due to infrastructure; constructing chicken houses is not straightforward. There are also genetic limitations in boosting production. Although new genetics developed during COVID have been discussed, they will take time to be effective in the market. We expect more volume next year, but demand should more than outpace supply.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Mrs. Heather Jones with Heather Jones.

Unknown Analyst, Analyst

Are you able to hear me now?

Operator, Operator

Yes, go ahead.

Unknown Analyst, Analyst

Okay. My questions are related to the U.S. red meat business. I guess, first on the North American beef business, the volatility that we've seen in the Futures curve recently, just wondering if you could help us understand how that may affect your Q4 results? And then my second question is on pork. The sequential improvement in your results stands in sharp contrast to industry benchmarks as well as your competitors. So I was just wondering if you could explain what drove that strong sequential improvement despite what was really tight spreads, et cetera.

Wesley Mendonça Filho, CEO of JBS USA

Heather, this is Wes. Regarding the volatility in the beef market, especially with the recent fluctuations in Futures, it does create instability in our results, which could have an impact on us. However, we are also seeing a decrease in cattle costs, which might provide some benefit. The cutout has been struggling a bit recently, and instability in Futures always presents a challenge, as it could lead to potential losses with our hedging position. Additionally, margins in the fourth quarter have historically been tighter than in the third quarter, and this year appears to follow that trend, suggesting potential challenges for our beef business in Q4. On the pork side, our U.S. pork business is performing well. All but one of our plants are operating on double shifts and are modern and well-invested. We've been focusing on adding value to our business, increasing our production of prepared foods, which has grown significantly over time and is a key area for our future growth. We're well-integrated on both the live and prepared sides of the business, and we have reliable key customers. It's hard to pinpoint a single factor driving our success, but our business model is consistent and operational excellence plays a major role. Historically, our margins have remained stable, and while I noted that the second quarter was challenging, our margins have bounced back. I'm optimistic about the fourth quarter as well, and I would describe our pork business as consistent, integrated, and operating at a high level.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Thiago Duarte with BTG.

Thiago Duarte, Analyst

I have 2 questions here. The first one is actually an extension of some of the remarks that Guilherme made during the presentation regarding capital allocation. You mentioned the share buyback and the dividends and how comfortable you remain with the leverage of the company towards the end of this year. My question is how M&A opportunities fit into this strategy? Over the past several months, there have been rumors about JBS participating in potential bids for different companies, especially in the U.S. So my first question is really about how confident or not you are that you will have M&A opportunities to invest, particularly in the Prepared Foods segment, which has been one of the main targets, as you have been saying for quite some time. So that's the first question. The second question is, I think, more to Wesley. There's an interesting chart in the company's presentation where you show the retail price for U.S. beef, pork, and chicken. What we have been seeing is that beef retail prices are close to all-time high. Chicken and pork prices haven't really followed suit, even though they remain higher, but they haven't been following suit. And the price ratio between beef and the other proteins is also at an all-time high, right? So my question to you, Wesley, is how do you see those trends unfolding going forward, right? Should we think more about beef demand at some point cooling off because of high prices and hampering further price hikes? Or do you believe that the high beef prices will continue to offer support for the other proteins to just continue to rise and catch up with beef, right? I think that's how you see this very unique situation of protein prices and how the consumer will behave on the back of that. Those are my questions.

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

Thiago, so in terms of capital allocation, I think for small M&As, as you can see, we have leverage and we have cash generation to cope with that. There's no big M&A that we are looking at the moment. But in case it appears, a good opportunity, the first thing that I'm going to do is because I want to keep investment grade is to higher ratings assessment from rating agencies. So at the end of the day, rating agencies will tell me what will be the capital structure that I should have in terms to pursue that M&A. Today, we have more flexibility in shares given that we have 2 classes of shares and they are listed on the NYSE. So at the end of the day, I'm very confident that we can pursue any type of M&A once the opportunity appears, but the end of the capital structure will be dictated by the rating agencies.

Wesley Mendonça Filho, CEO of JBS USA

Thiago, regarding beef prices compared to pork and chicken, it's primarily a matter of supply and demand. Beef prices will remain elevated as long as supply is limited. When supplies increase, we can expect prices to drop and the market to stabilize at a more normal level, which is consistent with past trends. This highlights the strong demand for beef, as even basic items like ground beef are selling at high prices while still attracting strong demand. This reflects the quality of the product and the inherent demand for all these meat options. In relation to pork and chicken, there is some substitution among the three proteins. When beef prices rise, people often turn to pork and chicken as more affordable alternatives, which boosts their demand. Therefore, as long as beef supplies are tight, we will continue to see heightened interest in other proteins. Whether we see a significant increase in demand remains uncertain and largely depends on beef supplies. We are nearing the bottom of the current cattle supply shortage, so it's important to monitor what unfolds. If beef demand rises alongside supply, we can expect beef prices to decrease toward normal levels. If not, chicken and pork will continue to be viable options for those seeking more budget-friendly protein sources.

Operator, Operator

And our next question comes from Gustavo Troyano with Itau.

Gustavo Troyano, Analyst

My first question is about Seara, specifically regarding processed foods in the domestic markets. Some competitors have reported stronger margins than volumes in the quarter, so I wanted to inquire about your margin performance in this segment during the quarter and what we can expect for these margins moving forward. Additionally, could you provide an update on the ramp-up of the Rolândia plant that we discussed a couple of quarters ago? It would be great to know if we can expect increased volumes in the processed food segment in Brazil. My second question pertains to Australia, where we observed higher cattle prices in the region this quarter. Despite this, margins have remained quite resilient. I would like to understand more about what to expect for the fourth quarter, given that cattle prices continue to rise. Specifically, how do you see the balance between demand for Australian beef and supply, and how does this affect margins in the region? It would also be helpful to hear about the performance of other businesses in Australia, such as Walnut and the processed foods operations, in comparison to the beef margins reported this quarter.

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

Thank you for your question, Gustavo. Regarding Seara, the brand's performance has shown improvement, with increased penetration compared to last year. The positive aspect of this growth in repurchasing indicates the brand's strength and our increasing market preference. Our innovation leadership is contributing to this, as we continue to introduce new products. The brand is in a healthy position, and we are seeing growth in both margins and volume in the Prepared category. Concerning Rolândia, it comprises a full, double sheet, and breaded product line, along with sauces and hot dogs, and we are currently working on its expansion. We are progressing with our investment; the machines have been set up, and we are now considering further expansion. While we aren't disclosing category-specific margins, I can tell you that we've experienced a 70% increase in volume in the domestic market from the same quarter last year and have raised prices by 5.5% across our domestic offerings. Over in Australia, performance remains robust. Despite rising live cattle prices, demand is strong—we export 75% of our production there, primarily in beef. The demand for beef is climbing due to rising incomes and a shift among younger generations toward higher protein consumption, along with the introduction of new pharmaceuticals like GLP-1. We are optimistic about our business in Australia for the coming year, with good cattle availability. The Salmon business, which faced past challenges related to disease, has now improved significantly, with margins exceeding 20%. Our pork operations are also thriving as we enhance productivity and share best practices from Brazil and the U.S., which helps us boost yields. We are excited about our prospects in Australia and anticipate strong results there next year.

Operator, Operator

Next, we have Ben Theurer with Barclays.

Benjamin Theurer, Analyst

I have a couple of quick questions. First, regarding the beef sector, there has been a lot of discussion about the current constraints. Wesley, could you provide insight into the market conditions, specifically regarding the rebuilding of the herd and your outlook for 2026? What challenges do you foresee in a potentially tighter market, and will there be any retention strategies in place? It would be helpful to understand how we should view the U.S. beef business in 2026 compared to 2025. My second question pertains to working capital. In the second quarter, you mentioned building inventory and utilizing cold storage due to shipments to China. Can you clarify the expected timeline for this inventory depletion? How long will it take to ship it out?

Wesley Mendonça Filho, CEO of JBS USA

In 2026, we are observing a retention of female cattle, particularly heifers. According to USDA data, cow slaughter this quarter was 545,000 compared to 973,000 in the third quarter of 2022, which is nearly half of what it was a few years ago. This figure is significant. Our team is out there meeting people and confirming these trends. While we anticipate challenges in supply for 2026, we expect things to gradually improve starting in 2027. It won't be an instant recovery, but rather a slow progression. Regarding working capital for pork, the issues we faced were short-term and only affected the second quarter of 2025; they did not extend into the third quarter. We have resolved the inventory issues caused by tariffs, so there are no concerns moving forward.

Benjamin Theurer, Analyst

The working capital was more related to like out of Brazil on what you had to build because of avian influenza actually on the Seara side. Yes, no worries; I mean helpful on the pork side as well.

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

I do not see any issues with Seara; we are selling all of the additional quantity. I think the volume is affected by avian flu. The inventory for Seara seems normal. We are seeing strong sales in pork, and we are leading the market in both pork and chicken. I believe this situation is normal.

Operator, Operator

Next, we have Mr. Ben Mayhew from Bank of Montreal.

Unknown Analyst, Analyst

First question is just on Seara. I just wanted to revisit the headwind with the China EU export bans on chicken. Is there any way to quantify the headwind during the third quarter and the expected recovery pace of that headwind? That will be my first question. Second question has to do with just the Brazil and Australian cattle offsets for the U.S. And just remind us on the beef cycles there. So it's my understanding that Brazil, the cycle plays out kind of first where availability gets tighter. And then second is Australia with kind of a longer tail and more of a hedge against the pressures that we're seeing in the U.S. So if you could just elaborate on that a little more.

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

Yes, the restrictions on exports to China and Europe have a significant impact on Seara's profitability, as Seara has a strong market share in Europe, which is the premium market for breast products. The reopening in Europe will significantly affect Seara's profits since we continued to produce breast products without being able to export them there, forcing us to redirect this volume to other markets, which created pressure in those markets. Now that we can resume exports to Europe, it will alleviate that pressure on the other markets and help improve margins for breast products. The impact is substantial, though it’s challenging to quantify due to various factors in the business. Regarding China, it plays an important role in optimizing the carcass, as the wings sold to China represent a premium market compared to others. Similar to Europe, we had redirected wings from China to other markets, but with the reopening, we can now sell them back to China. Additionally, products like feet and paws that we couldn't fully market will now generate extra revenue with the reopening of that market, which is crucial for Seara's business. As for the higher prices of livestock in Australia and Brazil, while this increase affects prices, the cutout prices more than offset this rise in live cattle prices. We're seeing strong demand from Australia, and we've sold our full volume there, so we don't view this as a negative impact. Next year looks promising for Australia. In Brazil, we are noticing a reduction in herds and restricted availability, but this reduction marks the peak for this year, and we expect to see growth exceeding 20% next year. There are some constraints, but the market in Brazil will remain strong next year.

Wesley Mendonça Filho, CEO of JBS USA

And just to complement, obviously, as the U.S. exports a lot less, especially to Asian countries and other North American countries, it is a direct correlation to U.S. or to Australia and Brazil export volumes being stronger, right? As we need more domestic beef in the U.S., we keep more beef in the U.S., export less out of the U.S.; automatically, you're going to see an advantage to our businesses in Australia and Brazil. And that's a very important correlation that helps minimize the impact of the beef cycle in the U.S.

Operator, Operator

Next question comes from Carla Casella with JPMorgan.

Carla Casella, Analyst

You mentioned the Brazilian debt financing that you did. I'm just wondering, was that sold to the public markets? Or are there any concentrations of holders? And then I'm not sure if you gave a rate that you're paying on that.

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

Carla, so about the rate, yes, that depends on the tranches. We had tranches. The longest one was a 4-year tranche, which was inflation plus 8%. But on a swapped basis, when you swap to dollars, it is dollar plus 6.2%. So all the tranches were launched at the rate that inside our bond curve in U.S. So that's one condition for any debt issuance; it has to be inside my investment-grade curve. So that's what happened with these local debentures that we issued. There was a lot of individual investors who demanded it, but also treasuries from banks that generally continue to be selling to individual investors throughout the next months because individual investors have a tax exemption on this kind of local debentures. And that's the reason why, on a swapped basis, it is issued inside my bond curve.

Carla Casella, Analyst

Okay, that's great. Do you see yourself increasing or decreasing the debt in Brazil over time, or are you satisfied with the current balance of Brazilian debt compared to U.S. debt?

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

Great. Yes, 12% of my total revenues come from Brazilian reais. Currently, about 10% of my debt is in Brazilian reais. This gives me some flexibility to add local debenture debt and maintain balance without needing to hedge. I have minimal currency exposure. I still have some capacity to increase my real debt, but it's limited. I'm close to my ideal situation regarding currency exposure balance, as my debt in reais is roughly equivalent to my revenues in reais.

Carla Casella, Analyst

Okay, that's great. And then just one other question. You mentioned the 2.5x leverage target for year-end. Is that using IFRS EBITDA or U.S. comp EBITDA?

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

Yes, IFRS EBITDA. So we'll be below 2.5x in IFRS EBITDA.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Henrique Brustolin with Bradesco BBI.

Henrique Brustolin, Analyst

I have a few follow-up questions regarding Seara as well. First, the seasonal offerings at year-end seem to be becoming more relevant in your portfolio. I would like to know your expectations for this year-end, particularly concerning the domestic market in Brazil. Second, regarding production growth in the Brazilian market, we are seeing a 7% increase in the breeder flock placements this year. I understand there are some bottlenecks, so I would like to know if you view this as a reliable estimate for future supply growth, or if the bottlenecks might indicate a smaller figure. Lastly, on export prices, we are noticing a softening in export prices, as you mentioned, Tomazoni. Is this entirely due to the volume relocation from Europe and China to other markets, or are there also signs of weakness in specific markets? This information would be helpful for understanding how Seara will evolve moving forward.

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

Thank you, Henrique, for the question. First, regarding the seasonal offerings, we see that this has become increasingly important as we have developed a product portfolio to meet this market. It's the seasonal market we have at Fiesta and some other products. The market is expected to grow next year, and we are observing strong demand. I spoke with the team from Seara this morning, and they are very confident and pleased with the demand so far. The initial demand is directed towards retail, while the second demand depends on consumers purchasing the product off the shelf. However, we are currently experiencing strong demand from retailers and do not foresee any volume constraints for sales this year. In terms of the Brazilian market, while the retail market is constrained, we are not facing these limitations in our category. We are not only selling products for the Christmas event but also our current portfolio, which is performing well without any constraints. As for your second question, if I understood it correctly, it was about export, right?

Henrique Brustolin, Analyst

It's about exports and prices, whether that's related to the redirecting of volumes. And the other one was about the production growth if the 7% breeder flock is...

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

Sure, thank you. We see now, with this reopening in Europe and China, we see an opportunity for an increase in price because some of the markets with extra volume I mentioned before were depressed because not just us, but all of the Brazilians needed to sell into these markets; the market share is for these products, mainly for breast and wings—and we see now the opportunity for this product to grow in terms of price. We are seeing some movements already in the market. And yes, the average price for Seara will be higher for sure because even if we are not increasing the price, accessing the premium market will increase our average price. There are challenges in terms of volume or price in the external market with the small birds that go to the Middle East. This remains a very challenging market because there is local production. Before it was a big market for the Brazilian small birds, the grillers. Now we compete with the local production. If you consider all of the market, we could see that this is the most difficult market. Regarding the increase in terms of the genetic, you mentioned that the breeders, yes, they increase, but they need to increase in order to replace the old ones because we had restrictions in terms of the availability of genetic before breeders before and all of the Brazilian producers kept their breeders longer in farms to compensate for the non-availability of the new ones. Now—and this is not good in terms of productivity because when they get older, the eggs that come from them have less yield and more mortality. Now it's an opportunity to have a healthier age in terms of breeders. Brazil, if you look at Brazil this year, with strong demand for the external market and for protein, we are not growing. We are not growing due to many restrictions that come from avian flu. I believe that next year, the export from Brazil will be strong, as we saw recently, in the last month, which was one of the record exports from Brazil. I believe that Brazil will recover what we were not able to export this year in the foreign market.

Operator, Operator

Next question comes from John Baumgartner with Mizuho.

John Baumgartner, Analyst

I'd like to ask about JBS Brazil. Thinking forward from here on the revenue side, can you speak to how resilient you expect domestic demand will be given higher prices? Just your expectations for resilience there? And then second, how export opportunities are evolving for Brazil. And I'm curious about maybe the structural opportunities to diversify exports across Asia, Korea, Japan, and maybe some opportunities to supply more into Mexico, the trade deal with the EU and Mercosur. How do you think about new export opportunities for Brazil that are longer-lasting? And in 2026, specifically, the ability for any incremental demand from exports to support prices and minimize the pressure on profit margins from higher cattle costs?

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

Thank you for the question, John. JBS Brazil is focused primarily on our beef business, which we believe has strong export potential. Over the past two years, Brazil has opened more than 100 new markets for beef exports, and we anticipate that demand will continue to be robust next year. This demand is more than sufficient to offset the rising costs of livestock, and the domestic market also remains strong. We expect positive performance in the beef sector overall, including in Brazil, where we are working closely with key customers. Our initiative, referred to as category management 2.0, focuses on managing the retail category to enhance our product presentation and provide training for staff in the butcher area. The progress we've made not only boosts beef sales but also benefits other product categories. Retail partners, such as Friboi, can grow across multiple categories due to our established products in the market, which have demonstrated success in Brazil. Additionally, we see substantial demand in external markets, with no signs of restrictions affecting that demand.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Thiago Bortoluci with Goldman Sachs.

Thiago Bortoluci, Analyst

I also have 2. The first one, I think, is for Wesley. I remember, Wesley, early in the year, you mentioned a bunch of investments into your U.S. beef operations, right? And we know, obviously, those are aiming for the medium term, not necessarily the cycle. But I'd just like to understand from you, given the run rate profitability that you're delivering there, how much of those investments or any other work you could do in terms of efficiency could help protect the sequential evolution into 2026? And how comparable you think margins could go on a sequential year versus where we are year-to-date? This is the first one. And the second one, I think, is for Guilherme. Guilherme, you have the soft guidance of returning $1 billion per year to shareholders either through dividends and buybacks. I know this year was a very special one because of the listing, but you are delivering so far a run rate closer to $2 billion, maybe $1.5 billion if you exclude the dividends related to the listing. Does it mean maybe there might be space for you guys to be a bit higher on shareholder returns, particularly if, as you mentioned, there is no clear M&A on the table for next year? Those are the questions.

Wesley Mendonça Filho, CEO of JBS USA

The investments we are making will not affect 2026; they will have an impact starting in 2027 and beyond. Therefore, you shouldn't expect any changes that year. This is actually an ideal time to discuss this because 2026 will still experience a low supply of cattle. By then, all the plants will have undergone renovations and will operate more efficiently, allowing for increased capacity to produce value-added products and higher volumes in 2027. Things should begin to improve, at least compared to 2026, and continue on that upward trend. Overall, we should consider 2026 to be a year where margins will likely be similar to those of 2025.

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

In our decision to return money to shareholders, the key factor has been our leverage, as we aim to remain investment ready and hold a BBB- rating. This year, aside from the returns previously mentioned, we will finish with leverage below 2.5x, which is quite comfortable. We are currently budgeting for next year and need to take into account the first quarter, which typically involves higher cash consumption. Therefore, decisions regarding returns will likely emerge in the second quarter of next year. Returns may be more weighted towards the latter half of 2026. We are optimistic about maintaining dividends around $1 billion annually, provided we keep our leverage at a manageable level. Additionally, any surplus will be evaluated for share buybacks or extra dividends, depending on potential M&A opportunities.

Operator, Operator

And our next question is with Mr. Lucas Ferreira with JPMorgan.

Lucas Ferreira, Analyst

A quick follow-up to Guilherme, on that $700 million expected working capital investments for 2026. Just ballpark numbers, how much of that is volume growth and how much is pricing? So just we have a sensitivity here of how things could go.

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

I would say it could be half and half. This $700 million, as I mentioned in the beginning, depends on a lot of variables that are out of our control. So basically, I did an average of many years before. But it all depends on 3 things, on grain prices, livestock prices, and finished product prices. This can swing a lot. So this is again the $700 is working capital is something that can swing more in terms of what we're forecasting for next year. So maybe again, we can even have a neutral value, not consuming, not releasing, except for the biological assets that you always be consuming. That's why I separate biological assets. But again, this number was just an average of years before because we will have some volumes that will impact that, especially from the expansion that we do. But the main impact will always be on the prices of these 3 elements that I mentioned.

Lucas Ferreira, Analyst

And a quick follow-up on the biological assets that you're guiding pretty much like a flattish number, right, in dollars. Obviously, there is the FX effect. But can we assume, given all the industry inflation and the cost of grandmothers, et cetera, that this implies also that your placements are sort of flattish or at least not growing significantly. Is it fair to assume?

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

Because the main variable that impacts this is the grain prices. So basically, we are considering that grain prices will not be much higher next year, so we can consider it flat. Okay? Because the livestock, the chicken and pork, they are basically valued through their cost of feeding; that's the grains.

Operator, Operator

Next question comes from Pooran Sharma with Stephens.

Pooran Sharma, Analyst

I wanted to follow up on the hedges you discussed last quarter. You mentioned incurring a $250 million loss due to some of those hedges. Could you share how much of that loss rolled off in the third quarter? Also, what should we expect to see roll off in the fourth quarter?

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

Yes, keep in mind that the cash impact from the derivatives affects the physical purchase. However, you're correct that in the third quarter, we experienced a negative impact, which has been mitigated by a decrease in future markets from a cash perspective in the fourth quarter. Of course, how this behaves from now until the end of the quarter will vary. But so far, we are seeing cash released on the derivative side, although it is important to remember that this is on a margin basis and is offset by the physical purchases.

Pooran Sharma, Analyst

Great. Regarding the Pork business, I'm curious about the constrained industry supplies you mentioned. Given the current margins in hog production, why do you think there hasn't been any signs of expansion? The most recent hogs and pigs report suggests we won’t see any growth. It seems other pork processing companies are also stepping back from raising hogs. With your integrated operations in mind, do you see the limited hog supply in the U.S. as advantageous for your business, considering the current hog production margins? Or do you view it more negatively because it might affect your pork packing operations? I would appreciate your thoughts on this.

Wesley Mendonça Filho, CEO of JBS USA

We have a lower volume of hogs this year, but we anticipate higher numbers next year if health conditions improve, which we believe they will. Our strategy involves raising about 25% of the hogs we process, and we prefer to maintain that level. Our hog procurement strategy is designed to balance risks related to hog prices, corn prices, and overall hog production. Even in years when our hog production isn't optimal, our approach helps mitigate the impact of price volatility. This means that if one aspect of our business underperforms while another excels, it provides a protective hedge for us. We aim for both our pork processing and hog production to succeed simultaneously, but we are positioned to absorb fluctuations in pricing effectively.

Operator, Operator

Next question comes from Leonardo Alencar with XP.

Leonardo Alencar, Analyst

I would like to discuss a little bit further about Brazilian cattle. This year was a positive surprise, a surprise to the upside, but then we don't have much visibility for 2026. So first, what's your base case for cattle availability in the next year? And second, in a scenario, maybe a potential scenario of a tighter supply of cattle, should we view of this project, the Swift retail stores that we'll be building up for a long time now. Should we view that as a margin hedge or maybe this scenario of retailers with lower margins and squeezed margins will be a good opportunity to increase the pace of growth in that area? Those are my 2 questions.

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

The availability of cattle in Brazil, we see that the information we have indicates that there will be a reduction of 3% to 5%. This is market information based on different surveys indicating a range of 3% to 5% decrease. It's important to see this 3% to 5% for a high level; it means there’s still a lot of cattle available in the market. If you look back to 2023, we see that we are much, much higher than that time. Even if we have some reduction now, the reduction is at a different level, but we remain much more availability than before. This is one thing that we see. The market and Friboi have a special program to purchase the cattle in the market. We have long-term strategies with the farms to ensure a reliable supply over the years. Another significant factor is the increased growth of feedlot in Brazil. The rate of growth for feedlot cattle is increasing significantly because of the booming ethanol corn industry in Brazil, the availability of DDG helps to enhance the diet of the cattle. Additionally, the combination of genetic improvement and diet enhancement is increasing the age and the yield size of Brazilian beef. This represents a huge opportunity for Brazil to grow the beef market in terms of genetic improvements, diet enhancements, and herd management. The second part of your question regarding our Swift stores; we developed this concept because we believe that the frozen beef market is substantial. By selling frozen, we save on waste in the chain, as we reduce the loss during the process of getting to consumers. It's about consumer behavior; they generally do not go to the market every day but rather purchase and freeze the meat. This concept is designed to maintain quality by freezing in the plant rather than relying on the consumer's ability to freeze effectively at home. This was the concept behind developing this market. We are growing in this area. We will not compete with our customers; if they want to have frozen meat in their stores, we can establish a Swift store within their store. This is a segment that we are growing, and with our category management program, we enhance our offerings.

Operator, Operator

Next question comes from Priya Ohri with Barclays.

Priya Ohri-Gupta, Analyst

Guilherme, one follow-up. I know you've gotten some questions around the working capital. But it does seem like relative to what you discussed on the second quarter call, in the breakeven calculation, the working capital need has gone up about $400 million for this year, $450 million for next year. Can you just walk us through sort of what specifically is driving that? And then my second question is just around any progress you've made with regards to updating your bond ticker. I know that's something that you guys have been discussing for a little bit. So just wanted to see where you were there.

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

Priya, so basically, this year, the increase was mainly because of livestock prices and also finished product prices. Next year, as I mentioned, there are a lot of variables of uncertainty. So I just made an average of last year because this is, again, dependent on the variance that I mentioned before. So I can tell you this year, it was mainly for the reasons of livestock prices and finished product prices and some increase in volumes. The ticker; we are in the process of making the N.V., our Netherlands company now as a co-issuer also. So this will mean restructuring. Maybe with this new restructuring, we will ask Bloomberg if now they can take the ticker — the BZ from the ticker, but that's what our next attempt will be once we finish making the N.V. as a co-issuer.

Priya Ohri-Gupta, Analyst

Great. Do you have a timeline around that possibly? And then just one final question around whether you've gotten any indications from BNDES around how they're thinking about selling down their existing holding, which is for sale?

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

No, we don't have a time frame, but I think by next year we will have the restructuring of the co-issuer in place, and BNDES, we have no news on that.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is with Igor Guedes with Genial.

Igor Guedes, Analyst

Are you listening to me?

Guilherme Cavalcanti, CFO

Yes.

Igor Guedes, Analyst

My question is about U.S. Pork. We understand that although domestic demand remains resilient, supported by consumers switching to cheaper proteins, margins still seem to reflect the effect of weaker prices for byproducts and offal. The operation has made progress in expanding its high value-added portfolio, including strengthening the Prepared products line, but this has not yet been enough to offset the compression factors. We have an agreement that Chinese products will be subject to a 40% tariff in the U.S. Do you think this agreement will enable the return of sales of byproducts and offal to China with the administration of the 2 countries reaching a better understanding on tariffs? Is it possible to see this margin improving going forward?

Wesley Mendonça Filho, CEO of JBS USA

If we have more markets for our products, including offal, it’s always better and it will help improve margins overall by providing more options. However, margins are not currently compressed due to this. We are back to a 10% EBITDA, similar to what we saw in previous quarters, except for the second quarter. The margins were compressed in the second quarter due to some delays in exports, but that is no longer the case. Having better market access for meat, offals, or any of our byproducts is definitely positive, but I wouldn't say that the margins are compressed because of that.

Operator, Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. With there being no further questions, I would like to pass the floor to Mr. Gilberto Tomazoni.

Gilberto Tomazoni, CEO

Thank you all for joining us today, and thank you for your continued interest in JBS. This quarter once again highlighted the strength of our global protein platform and the way that we operate it with discipline that guides our work every day. As we close, I want to express my appreciation to our more than 280,000 team members around the world. Their commitment to excellence is the foundation of our performance and the reason we continue to deliver consistent and long-term value. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

This is the end of the conference call held by JBS. Thank you very much for your participation, and have a nice day.