Earnings Call Transcript - JLL Q4 2023

Scott Einberger, Investor Relations Officer

Thank you and good morning. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call for Jones Lang LaSalle, Incorporated. Earlier this morning, we issued our earnings release along with a slide presentation, an excel file, intended to supplement our prepared remarks. These materials are available on the Investor Relations section of our website, please visit ir.jll.com. During the call and in our slide presentation and accompanying excel file, we reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide useful information for investors. We include reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to GAAP in our earnings release and slide presentation. As a reminder, today's call is being webcast live and recorded. A transcript and recording of this conference call will be posted to our website. Any statements made about future results and performance, plans, expectations, and objectives are forward-looking statements. Actual results and performance may differ from those forward-looking statements as a result of factors discussed in our soon to be filed Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year December 31, 2023, and other reports filed with the SEC. The company disclaims any undertaking to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Christian Ulbrich, our President and Chief Executive Officer for opening remarks.

Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO

Thank you, Scott. Hello, and welcome to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. JLL's fourth quarter financial results reflect the strengths of our resilient business lines, which grew a combined 9% in the quarter. This growth helped offset the soft transaction market our industry has experienced over the past year. Sentiment in the global real estate market has improved since our last earnings call in early November, a result of the drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, and a growing consensus that interest rates have reached peak levels across most major economies. While falling debt costs will lead to a more predictable operating environment going forward, it will take time and prolonged stability for pricing to fully adjust. The path forward may be uneven, but we are confident that bid-ask spreads will normalize and transaction volumes will improve. The fourth quarter saw global commercial real estate investment of $166 billion reflecting the year-over-year decline of 24% according to JLL Research. Liquidity remains available and debt markets are active, favoring asset types such as residential, industrial, and data centers. The current market environment, smaller deal sizes remain the most attractive to lenders, although we have seen a modest number of larger deals come into the market over the past few months. On the leasing side, occupiers continue to take a cautious approach, but office demand is stabilizing as many companies are making progress on their return to office initiatives. Similar to investment sales, large lease transactions are starting to return to the market but have not come back in a meaningful way yet. As we have noted in the past, larger deals are a more significant portion of our fee revenue base in both leasing and investment sales. As larger transactions come back into the market, we expect to benefit disproportionately. The global office market volume was up 4% year-over-year in the fourth quarter according to JLL Research. Asia Pacific leasing demand remains resilient with most markets ahead of pre-pandemic levels of office attendance. Global office vacancy rates picked up 25 basis points to 16.2% in the fourth quarter. Companies are still focused on upgrading into higher quality, sustainable space supporting demand in buildings that offer these features. Turning to the industrial sector. Fourth quarter leasing activity declined in the U.S. and Europe as the industrial sector continues to manage through the record amount of space that was leased following the pandemic. Asia Pacific leasing was resilient, supported by a wave of new supply and ongoing demand from e-commerce. Rental growth remained positive in the fourth quarter but continued to moderate across all three regions. Long-term fundamentals in the industrial sector are strong, supported by near-shoring requirements and demand for energy-efficient space. The retail sector saw solid leasing activity in the fourth quarter across most markets, benefiting from resilient consumer spending and a recovery in international travel. Turning to JLL's results for the quarter. We continue to focus on growing our resilient business lines as part of our strategy to further diversify our platform and drive long-term shareholder value. Our Workplace Management and Property Management business lines both reported double-digit fee revenue growth in the quarter as we continue to benefit from new client wins. For the full year 2023, our Work Dynamics segment delivered 80 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion compared with the prior year. We are on pace to achieve our previously communicated goal of delivering a mid-teens margin profile for our Work Dynamics segment. Performance in our Leasing and Capital Markets business was in line with expectations given the broader industry environment and continued slowdown in transaction activity. We have selectively added to our brokerage teams and asset classes such as multifamily, industrial, and data centers. We believe these asset classes have structural tailwinds and will lead the recovery as transaction activity improves. In addition, our industry-leading debt platform will serve as a catalyst as an increased level of real estate debt matures in the coming months. JLL Technologies fourth quarter operating income highlights the work we have done to drive operational efficiencies in this segment of our business. We continue to make progress towards JLL Technologies being profitable on a sustained basis, excluding equity earnings. In our LaSalle business, advisory fee revenue have remained resilient despite impacts to AUM from valuation declines in a softer fundraising environment. As transaction activity improves, we expect that fundraising levels across the industry will pick up. Recent valuation declines have created attractive investment opportunities in our new funds and we expect that funds launched during this period of time will prove to offer favorable returns. With that, I will now turn the call over to Karen, who will provide more detail on our results for the quarter and full year.

Karen Brennan, CFO

Thank you, Christian. Before I begin, a reminder that variances are against the prior year period in local currency, unless otherwise noted. I'm pleased with the focus of our leadership teams over the course of last year to strengthen our platform, improve our operating efficiency and drive long-term value creation while continuing to deliver exceptional service to our clients. Strong progress was made despite persistent softness in transactional market activities evidenced by full year investment sales market volume reaching its lowest level since 2012 as well as office and industrial leasing volumes 16% lower than 2020. So our transaction-oriented fee revenue fell 17% for the full year. Both leasing and investment sales outperformed respective declines in the broader market. Our resilient fee revenues grew 5% for the full year with growth accelerating in the fourth quarter as we transition new client mandates that we won earlier in the year, a testament to the trust our clients have in JLL managing their real estate portfolios. Over the course of the year, we took actions that lowered our cost base by $210 million on a run rate basis. Our free cash flow increased nearly $400 million from 2022, and we reduced our leverage towards the middle of our target range while we invested in our business and returned capital to shareholders. We remain focused on positioning our business to capitalize on near and long-term opportunities to drive growth, profitability, and cash flow. Our fourth quarter results reflect the diversity of our revenue base and the resiliency of our platform. At the consolidated level, fourth quarter fee revenue was $2.2 billion, a 2% decline from a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $306 million, down 9% and reflected a margin of 14.3% compared with 15.3% a year ago. The $55 million incremental equity losses as well as lower transaction-oriented fee revenue and the timing of incentive compensation accruals were the predominant headwind to margin performance. Growth in our resilient revenue businesses, cost management actions during the year, and an actuarial benefit related to health care costs were partial offsets. Fourth quarter adjusted diluted EPS of $4.23 declined a more modest 2% as the adjusted EBITDA drivers and higher interest expense were largely offset by a lower effective tax rate. For the full year, consolidated fee revenue declined 11% to $7.4 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year declined 40% to $737 million. Approximately 50% of the decline was from the adverse change in equity earnings, with the balance largely from lower transactional revenue. These items overshadowed resilient revenue growth and cost management actions. The full year adjusted EBITDA margin declined 500 basis points to 10%, including approximately 320 basis points from lower equity earnings. Adjusted EPS of $7.40 declined 52% with the adjusted EBITDA drivers as well as the adverse change in equity earnings and higher interest expense, partially offset by a lower effective tax rate. Moving to a detailed review of our operating performance by segment, beginning with Markets Advisory. The 3% decline in segment fee revenue in the quarter was mainly due to 5% lower leasing activity. Leasing fee revenue grew in the Asia Pacific region across most asset classes but was more than offset by softer leasing activity across most asset classes in the Americas and EMEA. Industrial leasing fee revenue was consistent with the prior year, which compares favorably to the 23% decrease in global industrial market activity according to JLL Research. Leasing fee revenue declined 15% for the full year, with largely consistent drivers as our fourth quarter commentary. As Christian described, we continue to see more sustained leasing demand for high-quality assets, which is favorable for our business mix. Our global growth leasing pipeline continues to hold up, and we are encouraged by the recent trends in the OECD's Business Confidence Index, which generally leads leasing activity by 2 to 3 quarters. Still, occupiers continue to delay leasing decisions, particularly for large-scale transactions. The contractual nature of leases, limited new office and industrial building starts, and our expanding pipeline provides optimism for long-term growth, though the timing and pace of acceleration and leasing activity is uncertain. Also within Markets Advisory, property management fee revenue grew 12% in the quarter and 11% for the full year, which both driven largely from portfolio expansions in the Americas and incremental fees from interest rate sensitive contracts in the U.K. Considering the current level of interest rates and the forward interest rate curve, the incremental revenue benefits from these contracts to the property management growth rate are likely to moderate as the deal progresses. The Markets Advisory fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin expansion reflected our cost management actions in 2023 as well as incentive compensation accrual timing. The lower leasing fee revenue, net of lower commissions, and higher incentive compensation accruals in 2023 drove the full year margin contraction, partially offset by property management fee revenue growth and our cost management actions. Shifting to our Capital Markets segment. Fee revenue declined 12% in the quarter and 28% for the full year as investor decision-making was prolonged by sharp interest rate increases and heightened volatility, along with elevated economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Our global investment sales fee revenue, which accounted for approximately 40% of segment fee revenue in the quarter fell 18% and compared favorably with a 24% decline in the global sales volume Christian referenced. Fee revenue declined across most geographies and major asset classes. However, we had several great spots in the Asia Pacific region highlighted by Japan. Our U.S. and EMEA investment sales go down from a year earlier performed notably better than the respective region's market activity. For the full year, the 40% decline in investment sales fee revenue compared favorably with a 43% decline in market volume activity with EMEA notably outperforming the market. Our loan servicing fee revenue grew 3% in the quarter as lower prepayment fees tempered 6% growth of recurring servicing fees. For the full year, loan servicing fee revenue fell 3% as prepayment fees were approximately $13 million lower than the prior year, which masked 6% growth in the core servicing fees in 2023. The rise in interest rates has nearly eliminated early refinancing activity, which generates prepayment fees. The capital markets adjusted EBITDA margin contraction for the quarter and full year was predominantly driven by lower transactional fee revenue, net of lower commission expense, as well as incentive compensation accrual timing. The decremental margin within capital markets for the quarter was a bit higher than typical, though the full year decremental margin was in line with the historical average and our expectations, considering the differences in geographic compensation structures and discrete items. The investments we've made in our capital markets talent and platform over the past several years position us to capitalize on a rebound in transaction volumes when market conditions improve. Looking ahead, the global capital markets investment sales debt and equity advisory pipeline is up modestly compared with this time last year and client engagement momentum has picked up over the past few months, which has coincided with the general recent stability of the 10-year treasury rate that is well below the October 2023 peak. The amount and pace of revenue growth over the course of 2024 will be heavily influenced by the factors impacting deal timing and closing rates that Christian described, so we anticipate higher growth rates in the second half of 2024.

Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO

Thank you, Karen. Looking ahead to 2024, we believe there are reasons for cautious optimism as we are beginning to see green shoots emerge in the commercial real estate market. According to JLL's proprietary global bid intensity index, there has been a growing number of bidders entering the market since late 2023, which is an encouraging sign for transactional markets. As interest rates stabilize, lenders and investors will be able to appropriately price real estate assets, which will lead to a tightening of the bid-ask spread. This process is already underway with the U.S., U.K., and Australia furthest along in the price adjustment cycle. In the Asia Pacific region, industrial net absorption set a new annual record in 2023. Strong fundamentals in this region should support continued recovery in leasing and investment sales activity. In North America and Europe, inflation is moderating setting the stage for rate cuts in the second half of the year. These factors are resulting in an increase in investor interest, specifically in high-quality assets. We believe this will spur a modest recovery in transaction activity for these two regions as the year progresses. The price discovery process can take time to play out and as a result, 2024 is likely to be a year of transition for the commercial real estate market. As a global player with a diversified platform and strong balance sheet, we are well positioned to help clients navigate this transition. Our technology and data tools provide clients with leading insights into market trends and opportunities while our One JLL model brings together the unique capabilities of our different business lines. This past year has proven that our operating model can deliver solid margin performance despite a slower transaction environment. We are committed to driving margin expansion and believe the steps we have taken to streamline our operating model and grow our resilient business lines will strengthen the long-term margin profile of our business. We continue to see opportunities to invest in our business both organically and through M&A, where valuations have become more attractive recently. We are focused on adding people and capability that strengthen our offerings to clients. I'm confident that the investments we have made and will continue to make in our business position us for success as market conditions improve. Finally, I would like to thank our colleagues for their commitment to serving our clients in a challenging environment and look forward to what we can achieve together in 2024.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Michael Griffin with Citi.

Michael Griffin, Analyst

Maybe just going back to the SEC comment letter you mentioned, Karen, wondering if you could provide maybe some additional color around that is the guidance in 2024 expected off of that new definition in terms of impacting adjusted EBITDA margin? Just trying to get a sense for how we should think about margins going forward if there's a kind of a new definition of this fee-based revenue and operating expenses.

Karen Brennan, CFO

Sure. First, I want to emphasize again that this change does not impact the quality of our financial statements or the performance of the business. So to repeat what I said earlier, the audited GAAP financial statements and footnotes adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net income, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow all will not change as a result of the topic. And so what the SEC is focused on is as follows, in the current presentation, we provide both GAAP revenue and fee revenue, and the SEC has a heightened focus on revenue metrics with deductions and specifically deductions that they categorize as an expense. So therefore, the SEC is focusing on our fee revenue since that calculation has a deduction for reimbursable costs. Right now, we're working with the SEC to determine an alternate presentation that can be used and it's our intention that we'll provide a presentation that includes the same insights that the investment community is familiar with today.

Michael Griffin, Analyst

Got you. That was really helpful. And then maybe stepping back, the higher-level question just on expectations of transaction activity. I mean Christian, if you're kind of looking at bid-ask spreads now relative to where they were, call it, 6 to 12 months ago, how much have they narrowed, and then, how do you think that is going to impact more transactions coming back to market?

Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO

Sure, Michael. Well, they have clearly narrowed. It depends a little bit on the quality of the underlying assets and also which asset classes we are speaking about. But generally speaking, we see now a much closer situation between bid and ask than we saw 6 months ago or even 3 months ago. The coming on the interest rate side, which we have seen towards the end of the year and at the beginning of the year, have helped. Now the last couple of weeks went in the other direction again, but overall, there is a clear willingness in the market to trade, and we believe that will continue over the course of the year, obviously picking up more to the second half.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Sheldon with William Blair.

Matt Filek, Analyst

Matt Filek on for Stephen Sheldon. Thank you for the questions. For LaSalle, how are you thinking about the potential trend in assets under management over the course of 2024? Given the current fundraising environment and the potential drag from mark-to-market adjustments on CRE asset values. And then, I think you mentioned a reporting change with respect to the definition of assets under management during the prepared remarks. Can you just touch on how that factors into the equation as well?

Karen Brennan, CFO

Sure. I'll address that. First, let's discuss the change in how we report assets under management. To give some background, three industry organizations came together: NCREIF in the U.S., INREV in Europe, and INREV in Asia Pacific, to establish a unified definition for assets under management, as there were various metrics being used across the industry. Our previous approach was on the conservative side. As a result, LaSalle's year-end assets under management will increase from $74 billion as of December 31, based on the old measurement method, to $89 billion with the new method. Looking ahead for LaSalle's assets under management, we have a substantial amount of capital ready to be invested as the transaction markets recover. Additionally, we expect an increase in advisory fees. However, we still foresee ongoing pressure from valuation declines, which have accelerated over the past year, and we anticipate more challenges in 2024 as well.

Matt Filek, Analyst

Okay. Got it. That's very helpful. Thank you. And then I had a 2-part question on leasing. First, what are you seeing in terms of lease durations? Are there any signs that tenants are becoming more comfortable signing longer-term lease commitments? And second, are you starting to see larger leasing deals flow through, and if so, are there any asset classes to call it in particular?

Karen Brennan, CFO

Yes. So first on the lease term, I'll talk about U.S. Class A office as a kind of metric benchmark here to focus on. For the full year 2023 for direct deals, the weighted average lease term was 8.2 years and that was a significant increase from 2022 at 7.1 years but still below pre-pandemic levels, which were really around 8.8 years. We're also seeing, importantly, an uptick of the sublease activity leasing and so there's some activity going on there. Those are typically shorter-term leases that's around 4.9 or 5 years. And so that's dragging down the overall weighted average lease term. But generally, that's trending in the right direction. In industrial, we're also seeing similar trends where some of the larger occupiers are willing to sign longer-term leases. I think there was a second part to your question. Can you remind me if I've missed it?

Matt Filek, Analyst

Yes. Just wondering if larger leasing deals are starting to flow through. And if they are, are there any assets in particular to call out?

Karen Brennan, CFO

Yes. We are starting to see an uptick in the larger-sized transactions, focusing on office to start that there was an uptick in the fourth quarter, but it was a modest uptick. And if you compare large lease deals in office in the U.S., which we define in our research team defined is over 100,000 square feet. The volume there on a trailing 12-month basis is still 60% below the pre-pandemic numbers. So we're seeing an uptick, and that's encouraging, but it certainly has some room to run there. In terms of what we're seeing from individual deal sizes in industrial, over the last couple of quarters, we've actually seen kind of more mid-sized transactions being signed as opposed to the largest blocks of warehouse space. Some of that has to do with availability; some of that has to do with the demand mix, but that's the trend we're seeing there.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jade Rahmani with KBW.

Jade Rahmani, Analyst

For 2024 full year, are you expecting capital markets, and are you expecting leasing to be flat, up or down?

Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO

Let me kick it off, Jade. On the capital markets side, I think it is fair to say that the markets, as I said earlier, willing to get engaged again and the trade bid asks have narrowed and so we expect that overall volumes will be slightly better than in 2023, most likely, you will see that in the second half of the year. And on the leasing side, and Karen may want to add to it, we probably see a similar picture, as she just alluded to, you see different signs of activity, which lead towards a slightly improved overall transaction environment also on the leasing side.

Karen Brennan, CFO

Yes. At a high level, I'd just say, right, that we expect a modest amount of fee revenue growth in these transactional business lines but primarily occurring in the second half of the year.

Jade Rahmani, Analyst

Thank you. Turning to the margin guidance. Does this factor any impact of the SEC comments? And can you just walk us through your thinking about how do you get to the 12.5% to 14.5% and then walking from that to the 16% to 19% long term?

Karen Brennan, CFO

Regarding the SEC letter and its effect on our targets, our primary goal remains to provide insights into the business in a different format while continuing the internal reporting and operations for our management team. Currently, this is our focus. The distinction between reaching the upper or lower end of our target range depends significantly on the macroeconomic environment and the speed of transaction recovery. If transactions return faster than expected, we are likely to achieve the higher end of the range; if slower, we may hit the lower end. This will be a crucial factor. It's also important to remember that we are benefiting from the cost measures implemented last year, along with ongoing improvements in our work dynamics margin as we scale our business, which presents favorable conditions.

Jade Rahmani, Analyst

And then let's say you end up at 13.5% or 14%. How do you get from that to 16% to 19%, and medium term, I don't know what that means, is that 2026, 2027?

Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO

Well, it obviously depends how the overall market is developing. If we are correct that we will see over the next couple of years continuous improvement of the market environment that will lead us to our formally stated margin target. And as we have alluded to in previous calls, we have made our platform much more productive over the last couple of years. And so we don't need the same type of top line numbers to get to that bottom line margin profile, which we stated before and so we are pretty confident that that will be achievable in the not-too-distant future.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Patrick O'Shaughnessy with Raymond James.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Analyst

How much do you think a potential rebound in capital markets activity is predicated upon interest rate cuts, or put another way, if central banks and the Fed were to not cut in 2024 how would you see that impacting deal activity?

Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO

Well, we have seen that the interest rates play a very important role. Now the question is, is it the absolute level which we are seeing, or was it the very quick spike in interest rates and also in margins. And therefore, I think is a very steady environment. The market were to expect no interest rate cuts, but also no increases that will obviously dampen the overall transaction volume, but it wouldn't fall below 2023 levels, I would guess it would still be slightly above. And if the market is seeing those interest rate declines, those cuts over the course of the year, over and above what is now included in the predictions that could add another 5% to 10% of volume from that part onwards, so not for the whole year, but when that is happening. And so our own expectations are that we will have a pretty cautious trading environment in the first 2 quarters, but we expect it to lighten up in the second half of the year, as we already stated a couple of times in this call.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy, Analyst

That's very helpful. And then a smaller competitor recently defaulted on its debt. Is the current environment pretty favorable in terms of attracting talent from smaller, less diversified competitors?

Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO

Listen, we have very clear expectations about what type of talent we want to have on our platform. And we are pretty good at attracting those people to our platform. And so the market for the type of talent we are looking for is still incredibly tight, I don't see any major impact of the context you are stating here.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jade Rahmani with KBW.

Jade Rahmani, Analyst

On JLL Technologies, there's a goodwill component also on the balance sheet. Do you see any risk to impairing that?

Karen Brennan, CFO

No, not at this time.

Jade Rahmani, Analyst

Can you comment on the M&A environment and what areas of the business you're most interested in growing through M&A transactions? Private credit is something that everyone is highlighting. Wanted to see if you could comment there or if there's other parts of the business where you see better value.

Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO

Well, first of all, as you know, we have been quite hesitant to enter the M&A market over the last couple of years because we thought that pricing was too high and that it is better value for our shareholders if we reduce our leverage and buy back shares as we have done over the last year. Now what we are currently seeing is that M&A pricing has come down a fair bit. And so we have been consistently evaluating deals. And as we continue to do so, we are now seeing more and more opportunities, which we find more interesting than in the past. And usually, those are in areas where it offers us the opportunity to bring in several of our different services which we are providing to clients so that it is not only touching one business line, but that is also across various business lines. That's the biggest asset we have at JLL; our One JLL approach, we are selling various services to the same clients is something which drives a lot of our top line growth.

Jade Rahmani, Analyst

And lastly, the recent upsurge in the 10-year treasury yield, has that had any diminishing impact on the momentum that you had been seeing building in capital markets?

Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO

It is not helpful. We are still seeing a growing client interest to transact. It's always the question of when is the right moment to get out into the market. So our teams are incredibly busy advising our clients, and we would have preferred that we haven't seen that recent uptick, but it doesn't take anything away from what we already said on the call about our outlook for the year.

Operator, Operator

I would now like to turn the call over to Christian Ulbrich for closing remarks.

Christian Ulbrich, President and CEO

Thank you, operator. With no further questions, we will close today's call. On behalf of the entire JLL team, we thank you all for participating on the call today. Karen and I look forward to speaking with you again following the first quarter.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.