Earnings Call Transcript - KGC Q3 2024

Operator, Operator

Thank you for standing by and welcome to the Kinross Gold Third Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call and Webcast. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to David Shaver, Vice President of Kinross Gold. You may begin.

David Shaver, Vice President

Thank you, and good morning. With us today, we have Paul Rollinson, CEO; and from the Kinross senior leadership team, Andrea Freeborough, Claude Schimper, Will Dunford and Geoff Gold. For a complete discussion of the risks and uncertainties, which may lead to actual results differing from estimates contained in our forward-looking information, please refer to Page 2 of this presentation, our news release dated November 5, 2024, the MD&A for the period ended September 30, 2024 and our most recently filed AIF, all of which are available on our website. I will now turn the call over to Paul.

Paul Rollinson, CEO

Thanks, David, and thank you all for joining us. This morning, I will provide an overview of what was another strong quarter for us, discuss high-level updates on our operations and projects, and confirm our outlook. Q3 was another excellent quarter for us, building on our strong performance in the first half of the year. Our portfolio of mines continues to perform very well. As of Q3, we have produced just over three quarters of our full-year production, with costs tracking in line with our guidance range. Our ability to hold costs in this rising gold price environment continues to benefit our margins. In Q3, we grew our operating margins by 14% over the prior quarter, compared to a 6% increase in the gold price. As a result, we generated record quarterly free cash flow of $415 million, an increase of approximately 20% compared to the prior quarter. For the first nine months, free cash flow was over $900 million. We have continued to allocate excess free cash towards debt repayment and have now repaid $650 million out of the $1 billion term loan. Looking ahead, we are in a strong position to make further repayments to the term loan before year-end. With respect to operations, our production in the third quarter was strong, delivering 564,000 ounces at a cost of sales of under $1,000 per ounce. Our two largest assets, Tasiast and Paracatu, both performed well with production increasing at both sites over the prior quarter. Tasiast has had another excellent quarter, delivering exceptional free cash flow from high-margin production. Paracatu also had a standout quarter with higher production and cash flow over the prior quarter. At La Coipa, we remain on track to deliver our production guidance. At our US operations, production was on plan and higher over the prior quarter as initial production from the higher-grade Manh Choh commenced in early July. Moving to updates on our project activities, we continued to make good progress across the portfolio in the third quarter, including the addition of two senior executives who bring notable large-scale project construction experience in Ontario and Chile. These additions come at an important time as we focus on our project development priorities at Great Bear and Lobo-Marte. At Lobo-Marte, we see excellent long-term potential for another long-life, low-cost asset with meaningful production. At Round Mountain, we continue to advance Phase X with drilling demonstrating exciting grades and widths, which Will is going to speak to you later. With respect to Great Bear, we continue to make excellent progress. As discussed during our PEA presentation in September, we have illustrated the top-tier potential of this asset. The PEA outlined significant annual production of approximately 500,000 ounces and robust cash flow with an impressive all-in sustaining cost of approximately $800 per ounce. The study outlined strong base case economics and, at current spot prices, the project generates an impressive NPV and IRR, with a modest initial project capital requirement. As we indicated, the PEA represents only a point-in-time estimate, but we continue to see geologic potential to support a multi-decade mine life. For the Great Bear AEX program, permitting and detailed engineering continue to advance. We recently reached an important AEX permitting milestone with the submission of our final closure plan to the Ontario Ministry of Mines. We expect approval of the closure plan shortly, allowing for commencement of early works construction. Regarding permitting for the main project, we continue to work with the Impact Assessment Agency of Canada on the Impact Statement, which we plan to file next year. In addition to the projects I just touched on, our team also continues to advance our study work and other opportunities, and we look forward to providing more updates on this work in 2025. Moving to our outlook, with strong year-to-date performance, we are well-positioned to meet our full-year production and cost guidance. Our continued focus on operational performance, strong grades at multiple assets, and rigorous cost discipline are driving record margins and free cash flow. In addition, we are also advancing exploration to further support the future of our business. With that, I will turn the call over to Andrea.

Andrea Freeborough, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Paul. This morning, I will discuss our financial highlights from the quarter, provide an overview of our balance sheet, and comment on our guidance. Our third-quarter performance was strong with production costs and cash flow, all improving over the prior quarter. We produced 564,000 ounces with sales of 551,000 ounces and remain on track for full-year production of 2.1 million ounces. Cost of sales was $980 per ounce, improving from $1,029 per ounce in the prior quarter. With an average realized gold price of $2,477 per ounce, we delivered strong margins of approximately $1,500 per ounce. Margins improved from approximately $1,300 per ounce in the prior quarter, and as Paul noted, this improvement outpaced the increase in the average realized gold price. All-in sustaining cost was $1,350 per ounce and was lower over the prior quarter, primarily due to higher gold sales. For the first nine months, cost of sales was $997 per ounce and we are on track for our guidance of $1,020 per ounce for the year. In Q3, our adjusted earnings were $0.24 per share and adjusted operating cash flow was $625 million, both improving over the prior quarter. Capital expenditures were $276 million in the third quarter and $772 million in the first nine months. In Q3, we generated $415 million of attributable free cash flow or $350 million, excluding positive working capital changes. Year-to-date, we have generated an impressive free cash flow of $906 million. Turning to the balance sheet, our financial position continued to strengthen in the third quarter. After repaying $200 million against the term loan in Q2, we repaid an additional $350 million in the third quarter and then made another $100 million payment last week. In total, we have repaid $650 million this year, leaving $350 million outstanding. Looking forward, as Paul mentioned, we expect to continue to make payments against the balance by the end of the year. Over the last 18 months, we've reduced our net debt by approximately $1 billion and our net debt to EBITDA from 1.7 times to 0.5 times as of the end of Q3. With respect to guidance, we remain firmly on track for all of our key metrics. I'll now turn the call over to Claude to discuss our operations.

Claude Schimper, Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Andrea. Starting with our most important value, safety, I’m pleased to say that our Global Safety Excellence Program, which was launched in 2023 has now been completed by over 70% of the workforce including both employees and business partners. Under the spirit of continuous improvement and building on our successful track record, this quarter, we finalized our health and safety brand called Safe Ground, which represents the importance of Kinross places not only on physical safety but also psychological safety and respectful workplaces by reinforcing the importance of creating a culture in which everybody feels they are on safe ground to speak up. Moving on to our operating performance. As Paul indicated, our operations performed well in Q3. Tasiast delivered production of 152,000 ounces at a cost of sales of $688 per ounce, in line with the prior quarter. Production benefited from stable mill performance with throughput increasing to a new record. Tasiast was once again our lowest cost asset, driving significant free cash flow. With slightly lower grade and maintenance planned in the fourth quarter Tasiast remains on track to meet its full year production guidance of 610,000 ounces at a cost of sales of $670 per ounce. At Paracatu, production of 146,000 ounces at a cost of sales of $1,006 per ounce improved over the prior quarter, driven by stronger grades and recoveries. As planned, the mine sequencing has started to transition into the higher-grade portions of the pit, which is expected to support higher production next year. Paracatu remains on track to meet its 2024 production guidance of 510,000 ounces at a cost of sales of $1,080 per ounce. At La Coipa, Q3 production was 51,000 ounces at a cost of sales of $1,074 per ounce. Throughput at La Coipa has been managed while several mine basin initiatives are being implemented; production remains on track for a full-year target of 250,000 ounces. Moving to our US operations, production of 205,000 ounces was driven by a strong contribution from our operations in Alaska. Our US sites remain on track to achieve the full-year guidance of 730,000 ounces at a cost of sales of $1,350 per ounce. In Alaska, production of 120,000 ounces was higher compared to the prior quarter, with record mill grade and recovery as production commenced from higher grade Manh Choh during the quarter. Construction and commissioning of the Fort Knox mill modifications were completed in Q3 with the project now fully transferred to the operations team and is performing as planned. Cost of sales of $973 per ounce was lower over the prior quarter, primarily due to the higher production from Manh Choh. At Bald Mountain, we produced 43,000 ounces at a cost of sales of $1,326 per ounce. At Round Mountain, production of 42,000 ounces was lower over the prior quarter, due to fewer ounces stacked and recovered from the heap leach pad, as per our planned mining sequence. Cost of sales of $1,540 per ounce was in line with the prior quarter. Mining remains on track and construction of the heap leach pad expansion was completed on schedule in Q3. Phase S production is expected to begin in the second half of next year. With that, I'll now pass the call to William to discuss our project.

William Dunford, Project Manager

Thanks, Claude. Moving to updates on our projects. At Round Mountain Phase X, development of the exploration decline continues to progress well with over 2.7 kilometers developed thus far. Exploration drilling has also progressed well, and in Q3, we started in-fill drilling of primary Phase X targets. The in-fill drilling has shown exciting results, highlighted by multiple high-grade intercepts at strong widths, including DX-0071, which intersected approximately 37 meters at 10.7 grams per tonne. Opportunity drilling this year outside of the primary exploration target has also shown strong grades and widths indicating potential to expand mineralization at Phase X. Of particular note, DX-0052 intercepted an impressive 30 grams per tonne over 32 meters and 11.5 grams per tonne over 23 meters outside of the original exploration target. We are pleased with these results, which continue to support our office's potential for higher margin mining from a bulk underground of paybacks. Moving to Curlew Basin, exploration drilling this year has continued to expand mineralization in the lower areas of our resource, where we see good margin potential on the back of strong grades and widths. A recent hole at Stealth Zone returned approximately 14 grams per tonne over 10 meters, well outside of our existing resource. We are encouraged with the results on both exploration and mine plan optimization, which highlight areas with good mining widths and strong grades. As Paul mentioned, we recently welcomed a new senior executive to our team in Chile to oversee the progression of global market and we are currently advancing baseline studies. As a reminder, we published a feasibility study on Lobo in 2021, which highlighted a high-quality development project located in close proximity to the La Coipa mine. Lobo-Marte has significant potential for high-margin production, driven by the strong heap leach grade of 1.3 grams per tonne and a low strip ratio of 2-to-1. The asset has significant scale with highlighting 4.7 million ounces of production over a 16 year mine life with average annual production of approximately 300,000 ounces. Strategically, Lobo has the potential to be a key low-cost contributor to our production profile in the 2030s. Lastly, with respect to Great Bear, as Paul noted earlier, we released a PEA in Q3 which showed robust economics, impressive margins, and a quick payback. In addition to the impressive geology and economics of the project, our significant technical work today has also demonstrated a clean and straightforward project across the board, including: clean metallurgy with higher recoveries of over 95%, a straightforward 10,000 tonnes per day milling circuit, confident geotechnical conditions, a robust tailings management strategy, and significant production flexibility from combined open pit and underground operations. It's important to note that these strong PEA results are just the beginning of the value story at Great Bear. This is a point-in-time estimate showing only a window into the underground potential based on the drilling we have been able to do from surface prior to April of this year. We already have multiple intercepts well below the PEA resource with strong grades and widths, demonstrating continuity of the system at depth and the significant potential for further expansion of the resource. Given we have already drilled out of PEA inventory providing a robust 12-year mine life and demonstrated continuation of mineralization beyond that, we will be ramping up deep drilling from surface at LP this year and shift our focus to progressing the advanced exploration decline, which will provide a platform for in-fill drilling from underground. This provides more efficient drilling from surface at deep depths. In parallel to developing AEX, we are also excited to be shifting our exploration focus to regional targets on the 120 square kilometer land package, looking for both open pit and underground opportunities. There is an 18-kilometer trend at Great Bear, which has seen limited drilling to date as we have largely been focused on drilling off the resource at LP on approximately 4 kilometers of that trend. We look forward to sharing those results with you through 2025. I will now turn it back to Paul for closing remarks.

Paul Rollinson, CEO

Thanks, Will. Following a strong third quarter and first nine months, our business is positioned for a strong end to the year. Looking forward, we are excited about our future. We have a strong fraction profile. We're generating significant free cash flow. We have an investment-grade balance sheet that is continuing to strengthen. We have an attractive dividend, and we have an exciting pipeline of both exploration and development opportunities. We are very proud of our commitment to responsible mining that continues to make us a leader in sustainability. With that operator, I'd like to open up the line for questions.

Operator, Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Josh Wolfson from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Josh Wolfson, Analyst

Hi, thanks very much. Just wanted to ask on Manh Choh, very strong results this quarter. It looks like both the contribution from throughput and grade, is there any visibility on the sustainability of some of these results? More so on the throughput side, which probably has more likelihood of being sustained?

Paul Rollinson, CEO

Hey, morning Josh. Yeah, we reassess stable production from there in the mill of 382,000 ounces a quarter from Manh Choh. So we are at a stable rate and building the grade that we put in. We will manage it through the year, and we expect it to be consistent with what we’ve been able to do so far.

Josh Wolfson, Analyst

Okay. Maybe just more specifically, 380,000 tonnes this quarter is pretty high above steady state. Are there some characteristics of the ore that would prevent that from happening going forward? Or is that a reasonable forecast?

Paul Rollinson, CEO

Balancing it with the transportation, we expect roughly 200,000 per quarter from Manh Choh but also in the Fort Knox production. The hardness of the ore is expected to be stable over the coming years.

Josh Wolfson, Analyst

Got it. Okay. Thank you. And then a question, maybe on the CapEx side. If there is any visibility we have at this point into future numbers. I know there are a number of projects the company is looking at evaluating going forward in terms of extending asset duration. How should we think about CapEx in upcoming years? The number this year being $1,050 plus accounting for inflation and maybe what the discretionary spending would be at global prices?

Andrea Freeborough, Chief Financial Officer

Sure Josh. So, yeah, we said our CapEx this year in '24 is $1.05 billion. Looking forward, I’d first start by saying that we are still just in our budget process now. We expect that it won't be significantly above where we were this year, just maybe adjusting for some inflation, sort of what we're seeing as we look at it today.

Josh Wolfson, Analyst

Great, thank you. And if I can tuck in one more question, just on the capital allocation side, I mean, fantastic results in terms of cash generation this year, what I would think is comfortably above $1 billion. The debt repayment schedule looks like it will be resolved within the six months of the term loans due. I guess the easy part of the capital allocation seems to be done in terms of the debt repayment that was identified earlier this year. How do you think about allocating that free cash flow going forward in the context of reasonably stable CapEx and debt no longer being a high priority?

Claude Schimper, Chief Operating Officer

Sure Josh. Our philosophy has really changed. We've been consistent in our approach to capital allocation. As we've said, it's the needs of the business. We keep it well maintained. We keep it well maintained because that reduces risk. After the needs of the business, obviously the balance sheet and as you fully agree, we're making good headway on taking out that term loan and I expect it will be dependent upon the gold price early in the New Year. It will be a question of internal growth versus returning capital, but I would say, as I look at what's happening with the gold prices, this is a good reminder that we don't want to get too far ahead of ourselves. It'll be somewhat gold price dependent.

Josh Wolfson, Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anita Soni from CIBC World Markets. Your line is open. Anita, your line is open.

Anita Soni, Analyst

Hey, sorry I had my cellphone muted. Sorry about that. First question is, well firstly congratulations on the solid quarter, particularly on the cost control. I was wondering on the US operations, as we look at Bald Mountain you stacked a lot and it seems like that's in the inventory. How do we think about the production volumes next year and into 2026? I'm assuming I was tempted to add some ounces in 2026 from residual leach, but I'm not sure how that works out in the next two years. Could you just give some clarity on Bald Mountain?

Paul Rollinson, CEO

Yeah, at Bald Mountain we expect fairly stable production next year. And then based on what's in the current inventory, the current sketch will start to taper off after next year. But obviously, we are looking at different options around additional pits and laybacks at Bald Mountain to continue that production profile out longer.

Anita Soni, Analyst

Okay, so you stop mining at the end of 2025, and then some residual leach in 2026 still? Is that still on plan?

Paul Rollinson, CEO

Yeah, just based on the current pit size without approving any new projects.

Anita Soni, Analyst

Okay. Secondly, Round Mountain, how does that, I mean, the volumes trended down a little bit this quarter. Does it still dip into the first half of next year before it picks up? I thought I read that you had construction of the new leach pad and I'm just wondering when that starts to come on stream.

Paul Rollinson, CEO

Yeah, I think next year, our plan has always been, that we will have lower production next year because we're guiding to the bottom of Phase W right now and we are in a process of stripping base out. We do have construction that heap leach pad which is needed because we're putting ounces on fresh liner. But we do expect a lower production profile next year before starting to ramp up again with Phase S in ‘26 and ’27.

Anita Soni, Analyst

Okay, so to wrap it up, just my question is driving towards going from 2.1 million ounces to 2 million ounces next year. The major driver, I guess would be Round Mountain with some offsets from a Fort Knox Manh Choh?

Paul Rollinson, CEO

Yeah.

Andrea Freeborough, Chief Financial Officer

Higher production circuit at Manh Choh. Yeah, and Tasiast has a lower year next year, which that's in the year we’ve been talking about.

Anita Soni, Analyst

Yeah. Okay. All right. Thank you very much. That's it for my questions.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Parkin from National Bank. Your line is open.

Mike Parkin, Analyst

Hi guys. Congrats on the solid quarter. On Round Mountain, the underground, it seems you keep hitting the high grade pretty consistently and looking at Slide 18 where you are putting in the infrastructure. A lot of it seems like it's right on the doorstep of that decline. Is that basically on design? And will you be able to access some of those higher grade zones early? Can you provide a refresher on whether we’re still looking at first production in 2027, tracking forward by the front-end, the back of 2027, or into 2028? Any kind of color you can provide in terms of how that’s shaping up in terms of the first access of ore?

William Dunford, Project Manager

Yeah, first off, you interpreted it right in terms of where that drilling is. That's why we're calling it the opportunity drilling. We're really drilling it as we progress the decline towards the main exploration targets from the open pit. So we are right there in terms of transitioning to production. We still are looking at 2027 as the primary stage for the start of fulsome operations at Round Mountain. But obviously, we may want to do some test stopes as part of our due diligence as we progress the project.

Mike Parkin, Analyst

Okay. Is any of the development going right through ore? Or can you tell from Slide 18?

William Dunford, Project Manager

We have crossed the ore in our developments. I think last quarter we highlighted some holes where we have them intersecting and you could see a narrative that from zero, meaning that same rate at the phase of the decline. We have crossed a couple of different ore bodies there, and mineralization don’t.

Mike Parkin, Analyst

Excellent. And just to remind us, what are you kind of thinking in terms of average grade coming from the underground excluding the impacts of the high-rate in-fill?

William Dunford, Project Manager

Yeah, the original target was kind of a 3 to 4 gram bulk target. Really, as we discussed at the beginning, it was all about the geometry and the significant width that we see there. Some of the intersections we’ve been having are higher grade, which is a positive indicator. But you can see on the slide that we really just started to drill off the main target. It’s bringing to progress our work further before we have a more advanced definitive view of the grade of the overall deposit.

Mike Parkin, Analyst

Okay. And will all this get factored into the feed resource or the year-end reserve resource update?

William Dunford, Project Manager

Not this year. Clearly we haven’t drilled off that entire deposit, and some of that material is already in our open pit resource. We want to get widespread drilling across the deposit before we do a proper conversion. We'll do that next year.

Mike Parkin, Analyst

Okay. All right. Thanks.

Claude Schimper, Chief Operating Officer

It’s a great question. I was just going to say on the grade question, obviously in that range of 3 to 4 grams, we believe that that is the right zone with positive economics. But clearly, based on the grades we’re getting, it seems to be trending to maybe something better than that. But we just haven't finished the work.

Mike Parkin, Analyst

Look forward to the update. Thanks guys.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Carey MacRury from Canaccord Genuity. Your line is open.

Carey MacRury, Analyst

Hi, good morning, everyone. Maybe a question for Claude on La Coipa. Can you just talk a little bit about the optimization initiatives that you are referring to there?

Claude Schimper, Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, Carey. Good morning. Obviously, as we restarted this project, the pretty old model needs a lot of care and maintenance. We've been very selective about what we do to make sure that it runs efficiently. We've been putting a lot of effort into that. And at the same time, we blend the ore and maintain our focus on reaching the objective for the year as we indicated. We're still targeting the 250,000 ounce production.

Carey MacRury, Analyst

Are there issues on the crushing side of the circuit or grinding? Any color on what you are trying to outline?

Claude Schimper, Chief Operating Officer

No, it's a pretty old model. It just stands for eight years, and it's at an altitude with different humidity levels. As we go through it, we've been able to identify some structural pieces. We've had some challenges initially on crushing, but that's been resolved, and milling is not a problem. We are now focused on filtration.

Geoff Gold, Senior Executive

The way I think about it Carey is, we're just kind of moving little bottlenecks. We address the efficiency of one area, optimize that, and then we'll move down the line to look at the next place where we could get reliability and consistency. That's how I would think about it.

Carey MacRury, Analyst

Okay. And then, maybe a question on Bald Mountain. It seems that got a lot of resources there; not a lot of reserves. Can you talk about the project and give us a little bit of color on what the objective of that could look like?

Claude Schimper, Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, I'll start and others can jump in. As you know, we've always said with Bald we have quite a large resource of 4 million ounces. It's been in a scenario that's a bit more on the line. Everything internally must compete for capital. Some of those opportunities at Bald you really want to have confidence in a higher gold price. The other characteristic of Bald is that, unlike the rest of our mines, instead of having one big pit, we have a whole bunch of little pits. So, in the context of where we find ourselves in the gold price, we will be looking at some quicker payback of satellite opportunities.

Carey MacRury, Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from Tanya Jakusconek from Scotia Bank. Your line is open.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

Great. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions and congrats on a good quarter. Great Bear, so maybe over to Geoff. Can you walk us through exactly what we're waiting for on this permit? And then, once we get this permit, assuming it's soon, what can be done over the winter? I'm just trying to understand the timing here for this decline start next year. Thank you.

Geoff Gold, Senior Executive

Sure, Tanya. Thanks for the question. I’ll probably divide that up with Will as we get into the actual activity that we will be doing in the winter. But with respect to permitting of Great Bear, you're specifically asking about AEX. I won’t get into the Federal IX process. On the AEX front, there are a number of permits we’re waiting on, and we're expecting very shortly. The first most important permit we require for any and all construction activity is the closure plan. We are pleased to have been invited by the Ministry of Mines to submit that for approval, which we have done, along with our financial assurance. We expect to get that final approval very shortly. Other permits also include a permit to take water from the Ministry of Energy Conservation and Parks, which we are also expecting in the near term. Furthermore, we're waiting on a tree clearing permit from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, which should come immediately after the approval of our closure plan. As we look into 2025 and more advanced AEX activities, we expect and are waiting on some additional permits from the Ministry of Environment Conservation of Forests in respect of certain wildlife. But it's not a question of if on these permits but when, and we expect all of them in relatively short order. The last point I would make is that, with respect to AEX and while we are waiting on these, they did not impact our overall main project timeline. On the activities, I’ll turn that over to Will to talk about what we will do in the winter program.

William Dunford, Project Manager

Sure, yeah. We can perform the majority of our activities in the winter. To get underground at AEX, the main scope of activity is to build a portal pattern and locks cut. We can do excavation and filling for that facility over the winter and also some of the ancillary facilities. So the majority of the work can be progressed over the winter. We're also going to continue to do geotechnical work for the wider projects and will continue to perform some RC drilling and, as we alluded to on the call, exploration drilling. The winter is not slowing us down.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

Okay. That's good to hear. Just cold up there. Moving on to the costing side, I don't know if you want to take this question. But just wanted to get a handle, and thank you Andrea for the CapEx for 2025. Just on the costing side, would it be safe to assume that you have the 5% lower production map outlook for next year? That's going to impact your cost and then we have the higher gold price that obviously also impacts your costs on the upside from royalties paid. And then we have inflation. Maybe we can just understand the inflation you’re seeing in your labor? Are you in that 5% for both your employees and contractors? I'm just trying to understand how costs should look next year.

Andrea Freeborough, Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Tanya. I guess I'll first start by saying again that we are still in our budgeting process. So, but I can certainly make some observations. So, you're right on the factors that will impact cost next year. The one other area I would note, and then I also come back to the inflation question, is just the production mix. With half years being in a lower production year based on mine plan sequencing, being our lowest cost asset will impact overall cost as well. In terms of labor inflation, specifically, I would say it’s around 5% or 6% for labor and contractors together. Aside from labor cost, inflation would be lower than that, averaging somewhere in the 3% range for overall inflation.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

Okay. And so, if I looked at your guidance of $1,020, would it be safe to assume that somewhere in the 5% to 10% range would be reasonable over 2024?

Andrea Freeborough, Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, as I said, we're still in our budget process, but towards the higher end of that 5% to 10% is kind of what we're thinking. We will come out with more guidance and specificity in February.

Geoff Gold, Senior Executive

It will be a combination of factors. There's the numerator, the denominator. We are going to be down a little bit, with inflation and the grade effect of where production comes from next year versus this year. That will suggest that cost will be up a little bit.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

Yeah, and I apologize for continuing on that. I just want to talk about your reserves and cut-off grades. Obviously, that's another impact. Just trying to get your understanding of what you're thinking about pricing next year and cut-off rates.

Geoff Gold, Senior Executive

We're still doing the work. That's something we generally finalize after we get through the budget process. But first of all, on the cut-off grades, we get that question a lot given the gold price environment. We're certainly not planning to change our cut-off grades. Our mills are full. We'll continue to stockpile low-grade material, thus no changes on cut-off grades. As for commodity price options, I expect that within the industry, you'll see some upward movement from reserve and resources prices where they were last year.

Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst

Okay. Look forward to getting more of that next year. Thank you so much for taking my questions.

Geoff Gold, Senior Executive

Thank you, Tanya.

Operator, Operator

And that concludes our question and answer period. I will now turn the call back over to Paul for some final closing remarks.

Paul Rollinson, CEO

Thank you, operator, and thanks everyone for joining us this morning. We look forward to catching up with you all in person in the coming weeks. Thanks for dialing in.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.