Earnings Call Transcript
Liberty Global Ltd. (LBTYA)
Earnings Call Transcript - LBTYA Q4 2025
Operator, Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Liberty Global's Fourth Quarter 2025 Investor Call. This call and the associated webcast are the property of Liberty Global, and any redistribution, retransmission or rebroadcast of this call or webcast in any form without the expressed written consent of Liberty Global is strictly prohibited. Today's formal presentation materials can be found under the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website at libertyglobal.com. After today's formal presentation, instructions will be given for a question-and-answer session. Page 2 of the slides details the company's safe harbor statement regarding forward-looking statements. Today's presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including the company's expectations with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects and other information and statements that are not historical facts. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. These risks include those detailed in Liberty Global's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its most recently filed Forms 10-Q and 10-K as amended. Liberty Global disclaims any obligation to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement is based. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Mike Fries.
Michael Fries, CEO
Hello, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. As you would have seen by now, in addition to our results, we announced two significant transactions earlier today, which, of course, we'll address in our prepared remarks. As a result, I think this call may run over 60 minutes. I hope you can stick with us because there's quite a bit to talk about here. We've broken this down into our typical quarterly results presentation, which Charlie and I will breeze through as we usually do, perhaps a little faster than normal, and then we'll move into more of a strategic update like we did two years ago at this time. I also think it might be a good call to follow the slides that we're broadcasting, especially in the second half. But let me jump right in on Slide 4. And certainly, by now, you are all familiar with how we organize and manage our business today. As illustrated here, everything falls into one of three operating verticals. Liberty Telecom comprises our four national FMC champions that generate $22 billion of revenue and $8 billion of EBITDA on an aggregate basis and where our primary goals are to drive commercial momentum and importantly, unlock equity value for shareholders. Much more on that in a moment. Liberty Growth on the far right houses our portfolio of media, infrastructure and tech investments totaling $3.4 billion today. And here, we're focused on rotating capital, right, and investing in high-growth sectors with scale and tailwinds. And of course, in the center sits Liberty Global itself with $2.2 billion of cash and a team with decades of experience operating and investing in these businesses. Now I'll come back to this slide and the strategic update. But first, let me provide some highlights on each of these for 2025. So it has clearly been a busy year for us on all three fronts. And as Slide 5 points out, we feel like we've delivered on our core strategic priorities. There's a lot of detail here, so I'm just going to hit a few of the high points. We'll talk about our telecom operating results in the next couple of slides, but we're pleased with the momentum that our commercial and network strategies are delivering, especially in the second half of the year, supported in parts by the benefits we realized from AI. All of our three large OpCos hit their guidance targets last year. When it comes to unlocking value in telecom, a key goal for us, as you know, you've no doubt seen our announcements on the U.K. fiber transaction and our acquisition of Vodafone's interest in the Netherlands. We'll dig into both those deals shortly, but this is exactly what we said we would do on our call last year and the year before. At Liberty Global, we've totally reshaped our operating model, having reduced our net corporate spend by 75% in the last 12 months. Needless to say, we are excited to see how this new guidance leads its way into analysts' some of the parts calculations. And we continue to allocate capital to the highest return. As you know, we did reduce the buyback last year from 10% to 5% of shares partially, to be honest, in anticipation of some of these varied transactions. And so far this year, we're not actively in the market, but we always remain opportunistic on our stock and we'll keep you abreast of our plans throughout the course of the year versus guiding to them. And with respect to our cash balance, pro forma for the transactions announced today and for what we expect to realize in further asset sales, we should end the year with $1.5 billion of cash, and Charlie will get into that in a bit more detail in a moment. And then finally, our growth portfolio remains highly concentrated with five assets comprising 70% of the $3.4 billion in value. We couldn't be more excited about Formula E and the progress we're making on the Gen4 car, our racing calendar and of course, our sponsors. And we have renewed focus on the experience economy. I'm not going to get into much detail here. But by this, we mean live events, sports, etc. We probably looked at 100 deals in this space. We've done real work on about 40, and we've only closed a handful of very small transactions. So that should give you some comfort that while we're excited about this sector, we're staying very disciplined as we look to rotate capital. Now the next two slides summarize Q4 operating performance for our telecom businesses. In the U.K., Lutz and the team have implemented a number of things that helped improve broadband performance throughout the year, initiatives like bundling Netflix and being recognized as a top U.K. broadband provider. Those things drove a strong Q4 as well as stable ARPUs. Postpaid mobile results were impacted, however, by the increases that they took in October. Hopefully, we'll see improved performance in '26, especially as 5G coverage continues to grow and pricing pressure settles. In Ireland, a combination of fiber wholesale activations, improved network performance. Actually, they are also ranked the best provider in the market and off-net expansion, supported net growth in the fixed base with stable ARPUs. Mobile in Ireland continues to grow steadily. Remember, we're an MVNO there, helped in part by a EUR 15 offer launched in June. In the Netherlands, Vodafone Ziggo's How We Win plan is driving substantial improvements in the broadband base. Becoming the largest provider of 2 gigabit broadband speeds in the market and recent recognition as the best TV provider helped make Q4 the single best result in fixed services in nearly three years with steady improvement over the last six months carrying into 2026. Postpaid mobile growth in Holland continues to be supported by nearly universal 5G coverage and a strong flanker brand. And then finally, Telenet had its highest quarterly broadband results in three years, helped by fixed mobile convergence in the South and a strong Black Friday period. And similar to other markets we operate in, ARPUs for fixed and mobile are very stable. Now if it wasn't enough information for you, we will be discussing three out of these four markets in our strategic update later in the call, including a lot more commentary on their performance and outlook. So in the meantime, Charlie, over to you.
Charles Bracken, CFO
Thanks, Mike. Now turning to our Q4 financial highlights. Our operating companies in the U.K., the Netherlands and Belgium delivered on their full year guidance metrics despite challenging market conditions. VMO2 delivered a revenue decline of 5.9% on a reported basis, which was impacted by lower Nexfibre construction revenues due to a slowdown in the fiber build and also sustained competitive pressure in both the fixed and mobile market in the U.K. On a guidance basis, excluding Nexfibre construction and O2 Daisy, we delivered modest growth for the full year. Adjusted EBITDA declined by 2.4% on a reported basis, primarily driven by lower Nexfibre construction profitability. Excluding this, adjusted EBITDA fell by 1% in Q4, but we still achieved growth overall for the full year of positive 1%. Moving to VodafoneZiggo, we saw a revenue decline of 2.3% in Q4, driven by fixed churn and reduced low-margin IoT revenues. This was partially offset by the annual price adjustment and higher Ziggo Sport revenues. Adjusted EBITDA declined 3.4% in Q4, driven by this lower revenue and higher costs related to commercial initiatives. The full year figures were in line with the guidance in Q1 for the new How We Win strategy. At Telenet, we saw a revenue decline of 1.3%, driven by our strategic decision to not renew the Belgium football broadcasting rights and lower programming revenues. Adjusted EBITDA declined by 9.9%, driven by elevated labor and marketing costs as well as higher professional services and outsourced labor spend. Turning to our treasury update. We've been extremely proactive through 2025 and the early part of 2026 in extending our 2028 and 2029 maturities. And we successfully refinanced close to $15 billion across our credit silos. At both VMO2 and VodafoneZiggo, we have fully refinanced all 2028 maturities following successful term loan refinancings, senior secured note issuances and private taps within these credit silos. In Belgium, as we announced in Q3, we have EUR 4.35 billion of committed financing at Wyre, which is contingent on BCA regulatory approval of our fiber sharing agreement. A portion of the proceeds of around EUR 2.34 billion are allocated to repay the intercompany loan with Telenet and will be used to rebalance leverage at Telenet. We intend to further repay some of the 2028 debt at Telenet with the proceeds from our partial Wyre stake sale, which is expected to complete this year. All of this proactive refinancing activity has significantly reduced our 2028 maturities and maintained our average tenor of around five years at broadly comparable credit spreads to our historic levels. Turning to the next slide. We remain committed to our disciplined capital allocation model as we rotate capital into high-growth investments and strategic transactions. Starting on the top left, we successfully delivered against all free cash flow guidance metrics for the year across our OpCos and JVs. Additionally, following our corporate reshaping program, Liberty Services and Corporate closed 2025 ahead of guidance at negative $130 million of adjusted EBITDA, which is around $20 million better than our $150 million target. Moving to the Liberty Growth walk in the bottom left. The fair market value of our growth portfolio remained broadly stable versus Q3 at $3.4 billion. This was driven by modest investments in Nexfibre, AtlasEdge and EdgeConneX, offset by the partial disposal of our ITV stake and the full exit of our Enfabrica stake as well as positive fair market value adjustments at Formula E and UPC Slovakia, which has been held in the growth portfolio until the sale process completes later this year. Turning to our cash walk on the top right. We ended the year with a consolidated cash balance of $2.2 billion. During the quarter, we received $162 million of upstream cash and JV dividends and $140 million of net cash proceeds from disposals in our growth portfolio, including $180 million from the partial ITV stake sale. We spent $34 million on our buyback program during the quarter, repurchasing a total of 5% of our outstanding shares during the year. Moving to the bottom right, we are aiming to end 2026 with around $1.5 billion of corporate cash. After deducting for the cash outflows related to the M&A transactions Mike will touch on in a minute, we intend to replenish our corporate cash with a combination of dividends and cash upstream from our operating businesses as well as non-core asset disposals from our growth portfolio. Turning to Liberty Growth in Media and Sports. Our strategy remains to invest in live sports and entertainment platforms with growing global fan bases. Formula E is our lead example of this, and Season 12 has started strongly ahead of the launch of the Gen4 car. Our data center assets, EdgeConneX and AtlasEdge, continue to show strong top line revenue growth, supporting a $1 billion-plus year-end valuation. And our energy transition assets also made big steps forward in 2025. Egg Power secured GBP 400 million of senior debt to help fund over 400 megawatts equivalent of wind and solar power projects, and Believ, our destination charging business has now built 2,500 public charging sockets, which are averaging around GBP 1,500 of EBITDA per socket with a further 23,000 awarded to them by U.K. local authorities. And they're currently bidding on a large number of additional sockets, which are being awarded. In tech, the focus is on AI. We made a strategic investment in 11 labs, and we're also moving our in-house AI investments into the growth pillar, given their potential to sell services to third-party customers outside the Liberty family. We've also established a new services pillar and have transferred Liberty Blume into it from Jan 2026. Now Liberty Blume develops tech-enabled back-office solutions for Liberty Global companies as well as third parties. It delivered over 20% revenue growth in 2025, achieving over GBP 100 million of revenue with an order book of nearly GBP 400 million. The initial value has been set at GBP 100 million, and we've hired a new CEO to accelerate growth. Starting January 2026, we're also introducing an annual management fee of 1.5% of assets under management paid by Liberty Growth to Liberty Services. This fee will be funded by distributions from the growth portfolio, including disposals, and will be used to fund direct and allocated operating costs such as treasury and related legal services, and these are all directly attributable to the growth portfolio. Turning to our guidance for 2026. We're providing guidance by operating company. For Virgin Media, O2 from Q1 2026, we will move to new disclosure, which better reflects the three key operating verticals following the creation of O2 Daisy. Now these are consumer, business and wholesale. There's a pro forma information in the stand-alone VMO2 release, which explains this further alongside updated KPI disclosures. On this basis, the VMO2 revenue guidance is now set on total service revenues, which we expect to decline by 3% to 5%. Now this is adjusted for the impact of the Daisy transaction, which is driven by continued promotional intensity as well as planned streamlining of the B2B product portfolio following the creation of O2 Daisy. Adjusted EBITDA is also expected to decline by 3% to 5%, also against the comparable period adjusted for the Daisy impact, driven by lower revenue and lower gross margin due to the changing customer mix. Stable property and equipment additions of GBP 2 billion to GBP 2.2 billion, excluding right-of-use additions due to continued investment in 5G and fiber-to-the-home and adjusted free cash flow of around GBP 200 million for the year, supporting cash distributions to shareholders of the same amount. For VodafoneZiggo, we expect stable to low single-digit decline in revenue, driven by a lower fixed base and the flow-through of the front book pricing impact, albeit with support from continued price indexation in fixed and mobile. Mid- to high single-digit decline in adjusted EBITDA, driven by OpEx investments into network resilience and service reliability. Property and equipment additions to revenue is expected to be around 23% to 25%, driven by continued 5G and DOCSIS 4.0 investments as well as the CapEx component of investments into network resilience and service reliability. Now to give more detail on this additional investment, we expect EUR 100 million of incremental investment of OpEx and CapEx into network resilience and service reliability during 2026. Now this will reduce to EUR 50 million OpEx impact in 2027 and 2028. And we're expecting adjusted free cash flow to be around EUR 100 million with no shareholder distributions planned for the year. For Telenet, we're introducing new full year 2026 guidance based on IFRS financials, excluding Wyre. We expect stable revenue growth, reflecting a stable operating environment and the annual price indexation under Belgium regulations, low single-digit growth in adjusted EBITDAaL, supported by OpEx savings from significant digital and IT investments and continued lower programming costs. Property and equipment additions to revenue of around 20% as investments in 5G and digital upgrades step down and positive adjusted free cash flow of around EUR 20 million. And finally, for Liberty Corporate, we expect around $50 million negative adjusted EBITDA, driven by the annualization of the cost savings from the corporate reshaping that took place in 2025 and the implementation of the new 1.5% management fee from the growth portfolio.
Michael Fries, CEO
Thanks, Charlie. Great job. Now we’re going to focus on what I believe is the most crucial part of today’s call, which is an update on the key transactions we’ve recently announced and how they significantly further our plans to create value for shareholders. I will start by referring back to the first slide I shared, which outlines the three core components of our operating structure: Liberty Telecom, Liberty Growth, and Liberty Global. I won’t go over the strategies for each of these again, as I believe you’re already familiar with them. However, this slide does include a basic sum of the parts valuation for these three components. It indicates that the Liberty Growth portfolio, based on the fair market value prepared by Deloitte, is valued at about $10 per Liberty Global share. Our corporate cash stands at $2.2 billion, and even considering a reasonable reduction for the $50 million corporate spending this year, that translates to around $6 per Liberty share. This implies that with today’s stock price of $11, there’s at least $5 per share being attributed negatively to our Liberty Telecom businesses. Different methods can lead to these figures. Some analysts might value Liberty Telecom first and then apply discounts to cash and Liberty Growth. I prefer the direct approach, as cash value is straightforward, and we believe the growth assets are valued appropriately. More importantly, we are quickly converting those growth assets into cash. In the last six years, we've generated approximately $1.6 billion. Therefore, whether the negative value is $5 or $0, it’s clear why we’ve dedicated so much effort to boosting value in our telecom portfolio. The Sunrise spin-off from just 14 months ago was our first step, delivering about $13 per share of value to Liberty Global investors, far exceeding expectations at the time. This is part of why we can state that our stock has significantly appreciated over the last two years. Moving on, another factor that reinforces our confidence in our telecom business is the overall positive trend in the European telecom sector, with the Euro Telco Index increasing by 16% year-to-date and nearly all major incumbent telcos experiencing even greater gains of 20-25%. What’s driving this? We see three key tailwinds affecting the sector. Firstly, there’s a better regulatory environment. While we’re not entirely satisfied, changes in the U.K. and updates to the EU's Digital Networks Act suggest regulators may relax rules around consolidation and spectrum policies, especially now that telecom is recognized as vital infrastructure. Secondly, similar to our experiences with Telenet, where 5G capex is largely behind us, and in Ireland, where our fiber build concludes, we’re seeing light at the end of the capex tunnel. The combination of decreasing capex intensity with telecom’s high margins and stable revenues positions us well for improved free cash flow. Finally, there’s the potential impact of AI. The telecom sector is prime for benefiting from AI efficiencies, customer enhancements, and automation. Additionally, as AI becomes integral to our lives, the role of telcos in providing connectivity and data transport will only grow. We’re also noticing a shift among investors, who seem to be moving away from capital-light, software-driven industries toward infrastructure-based sectors where AI has a positive impact and is less likely to disrupt over time. The potential transformational effects of AI on our industry are significant. I asked the CEO of a major tech company how we could reduce our OpEx from $14 billion to $7 billion, to which he advised reviewing our P&L together. This signifies we’re just beginning to tap into this potential. With that context, let’s revisit the specific goals we laid out regarding our telecom businesses last year, summarized here on Slide 16. The first goal was preparing our Benelux operating companies for the next phase of value creation, which I believe we have accomplished. Hiring Stephen van Rooyen as CEO has notably improved VodafoneZiggo’s performance. Today, we’re announcing our acquisition of Vodafone's 50% stake in VodafoneZiggo to facilitate spinning off a new entity that merges our Dutch and Belgian operations. Additionally, in the U.K., we set out last year to monetize our fixed network infrastructure for strategic and financial reasons. Early last year, we shifted away from a pure NetCo model, but we are still exploring ways to grow and finance fiber infrastructure alongside Telefonica. Today, we have announced the acquisition of the U.K.'s second-largest AltNet, which will create an 8 million home fiber platform and allow us to consolidate a fragmented market. Let's dive into the details of these deals, starting with the Vodafone acquisition on Slide 17. After what has been a remarkably rewarding partnership with Vodafone in the Netherlands, we’re excited to announce an agreement to purchase their 50% stake for EUR 1 billion in cash, along with a 10% equity interest in a new company called Ziggo Group, which will own 100% of VodafoneZiggo and Telenet in Belgium. There are three key reasons for this deal. First, the net present value of the operational synergies and additional service revenues from this transaction is estimated at around EUR 1 billion. Most of that value will benefit us directly. Second, merging the operations in Holland and Belgium makes financial sense, serving 7 million mobile subscribers and over 5 million broadband subscribers, generating total revenues of EUR 6.6 billion and over EUR 2.5 billion in EBITDA. This combination is expected to reduce leverage to around 4.5 times through synergies and enhanced operational performance. We project generating $500 million in free cash flow by 2028. Lastly, and critically, we plan to list Ziggo on the Euronext exchange in 2027 and simultaneously spin off our 90% interest to Liberty Global shareholders, similar to our approach in Switzerland. Just like Sunrise, Ziggo was once a successful public company that we took private and are now preparing to reintroduce to public markets. Now, a brief update on Slide 18 regarding VodafoneZiggo's recent performance. Stephen's "How We Win" strategy is resulting in a clear operational turnaround. Cost savings, repositioned broadband pricing, speed enhancements, and a multi-brand approach are leading to significantly lower customer churn. The data shows Q4 '25 was the best quarter for broadband performance in a decade, and positive trends are continuing into 2026. As shown on Slide 19, while 2025 EBITDA aligns with our plan, the 2026 guidance, as mentioned by Charlie, indicates a decline mainly due to a one-time investment in network resilience and service reliability. Nevertheless, we expect EBITDA growth to bounce back in 2028. While we’re not providing specific figures, we’re confident about this growth trajectory, which combined with a stable capex framework, is set to yield substantial free cash flow. Leverage is expected to peak in 2026 but should decline thereafter through organic growth and asset sales like our tower portfolio, with proceeds aimed at reducing debt. Next, on Slide 20, here’s a brief strategic update on Telenet. The steps taken over the past two years in Belgium have been crucial in rationalizing the market structure and creating a clear operational road map for both of our businesses. For the first time, we established a completely separate fixed NetCo, known as Wyre, along with a network sharing arrangement with the incumbent telco Proximus, creating what could be the most attractive fiber wholesale market in Europe. To facilitate this carve-out, we secured EUR 4.35 billion in new capital to fund the Wyre build and reduce Telenet’s leverage. We’re also in the process of selling a stake in Wyre, with proceeds earmarked for further debt reduction, targeting a midterm leverage of 4.5 times. Telenet, as part of the new Ziggo Group, presents a compelling equity story, boasting strong retail brands, significant B2B growth, an upgraded 5G network, and long-term access to fiber. Importantly, with a significant reduction in capex this year, Telenet's free cash flow is at a pivotal point and poised for ongoing growth. Shifting focus to the U.K., we’re announcing an agreement to utilize our fiber joint venture, Nexfibre, to acquire Substantial Group, which includes the Netomnia fiber network and a 500,000 subscriber broadband base for a total enterprise value of GBP 2 billion, with a net payment of GBP 1.1 billion upon closing. The goal here is straightforward: to establish the second-largest fiber network after BT Openreach. By combining Netomnia’s 3.4 million fiber homes with Nexfibre’s 2.6 million and incorporating 2.1 million homes from VMO2 that will be made available for upgrades, we will have a platform reaching 8 million fiber homes by 2027. This is a fantastic outcome for VMO2 and showcases our confidence in the U.K. market. We want the U.K. government to see that we, along with our partners, are prepared to invest significantly based on their pro-growth policies. On the next slide, which you might want to save for reference, we outline the transaction structure. The left side shows the cash and asset flows. Approximately GBP 1 billion of equity will be injected into Nexfibre, our 50-50 joint venture with InfraVia. This consists of GBP 850 million from InfraVia and GBP 150 million from Liberty and Telefonica. Liberty Global will directly contribute GBP 75 million in cash for the transaction. This GBP 1 billion, coupled with a new debt facility of about GBP 2.7 billion, will comprehensively fund the acquisition and long-term plans for Nexfibre 2.0. Once funded, Nexfibre will distribute over GBP 2 billion of cash: GBP 950 million to Substantial Group for the Netomnia fiber assets, and GBP 1.1 billion to VMO2. VMO2 will utilize that capital to acquire broadband subscribers for GBP 150 million and to reduce leverage. Most of the GBP 1.1 billion allocated to VMO2 will be tied to a substantial commitment to utilize the Nexfibre network on a wholesale basis. Specifically, VMO2 will grant access to 2.1 million of its homes, and we will pay Nexfibre wholesale fees for these homes once they are upgraded to fiber. Furthermore, VMO2 will start paying wholesale fees immediately for another 2.5 million homes overlapping Nexfibre's footprint. The advantages for VMO2 are significant. First, they gain cash to lower leverage, especially necessary due to the increased wholesale fees payable to Nexfibre. Second, VMO2 will have an additional 500,000 broadband customers. Third, substantial capital expenditure avoidance will result from not having to build and connect millions of premises, estimated to save around GBP 800 million. Fourth, VMO2 can continue to provide construction and managed services to Nexfibre, earning revenue and a favorable EBITDA margin. The value of this contract is projected to be around GBP 400 million. Lastly, in addition to accessing the second-largest fiber footprint in the U.K., VMO2 will obtain a direct stake in Nexfibre 2.0. Looking forward, this transaction also paves the way for further consolidation in the market, which we have long anticipated. On Slide 23, we present VMO2's operational outlook. Unlike many competitors, VMO2 has delivered solid financial results despite a highly competitive landscape. While revenue has remained stable over the past four fiscal years, EBITDA has grown at an annual rate of approximately 1.5%. During that time, VMO2 generated GBP 2.6 billion in cumulative free cash flow and returned GBP 5.2 billion in dividends to Liberty and Telefonica, confirming our satisfaction as shareholders. To summarize our key takeaways, the telecom sector and European equity values appear well-positioned for ongoing appreciation. Factors like consolidation, stable cash flows, and a shift toward stocks that benefit from AI contribute to this outlook. By now, I hope you’re convinced of our commitment to delivering value to shareholders. The Sunrise spin-off was our first step, and the transactions we announced today, particularly the Vodafone stake acquisition and plans to list and spin off the new Ziggo Group, represent our second step. We have worked diligently to refine our corporate operating model beyond mere cost savings, which have indeed been substantial. Our current structure is designed not only for operational efficiency in the TMT sector but also to leverage our expertise for both current and future affiliates. While we’ve made only slight progress in changing analysts' views on our corporate costs, we have dramatically reduced those costs by 75%, which will benefit our stock price. We are eager about our growth platform, having a successful track record and focusing on right sectors where we have advantages and opportunities for scale. Capital allocation remains key; investing wisely in a capital-intensive business is crucial. We treat our telecom businesses as long-term holdings, ensuring they don’t typically require cash from us to meet strategic goals. We invest when it realizes shareholder value, as shown with our transactions like Sunrise and the acquisition of Vodafone's stake in Holland. Over the past nine years, we've repurchased $15 billion in our stock, reducing shares outstanding by 63%, benefitting long-term shareholders. If you had 1% of our company in 2017, you would now hold over 2.5% of Sunrise, for example. Lastly, we anticipate opportunities in technology, infrastructure, energy, media, sports, and live entertainment, areas where we have crucial deal flow and partnerships, along with $10 per share of value to deliver to shareholders. I hope this update provides a good overview, especially regarding our recent announcements. Operator, we're ready for questions.
Operator, Operator
The first question will come from Robert Grindle with Deutsche Bank.
Robert Grindle, Analyst
My head is spinning with all the news you guys have provided. So I'll ask one question about the U.K. deal. 8 million Nexfibre homes post deal completion and the 2.1 million HFC home upgrade. Do you think that definitively unlocks the U.K. wholesale opportunity in a major way? Do you think you have to wait to get to the full 8 million? Or are you on a course before you get to that point to get more wholesale business in.
Michael Fries, CEO
I'll address that, Robert. Thank you for your question. Lutz or others can also provide input here. We expect to reach the 8 million target relatively quickly, likely by the end of 2027. This is a positive development for Nexfibre 2.0, particularly from the contributions of the three entities involved. VMO2 will play a significant role as a wholesale partner for that 8 million home goal. It's important to keep in mind that Lutz and VMO2 are continuously upgrading their network. Additionally, there will be another 12 million homes on the VMO2 network that are also being upgraded. We believe this effectively expands the footprint to 20 million homes, with the majority being fiber. Our primary focus will be on growing and managing our own customer base within this 20 million home network while also creating a much-needed wholesale opportunity for the market. Does that address your question?
Robert Grindle, Analyst
It does, Mike. Is there a timeline on getting the rest of the VMO2 network upgraded?
Michael Fries, CEO
Well, I don't know if we've disclosed that timeline. Lutz, if you want to reference that, let me know if we disclose that or not.
Lutz Schüler, CFO
I would add that we have upgraded 5 million homes to fiber out of the 13 million we are targeting. So, Robert, you can combine these 5 million with the 8 million, giving you fast access to 13 million fiber homes. Additionally, we have always mentioned our intention to enter the consumer wholesale market. Naturally, the more homes with fiber we can provide, the more attractive it becomes. We haven't provided further guidance on the timeline for upgrading the remaining homes, and we don't intend to.
Operator, Operator
Our next question will go to the line of Josh Mills with BNP Paribas.
Joshua Mills, Analyst
Maybe I'll take my questions on the VodafoneZiggo transaction. I think you're still talking about a stable CapEx envelope over the guidance period. But now that you're creating this new Ziggo group with more scale, does it change your appetite or opportunity to invest more on the cable to the fiber upgrade strategy? Is there any synergies there you can take from your learnings in the Telenet business and bring them over to the Netherlands, it would be very helpful. And then secondly, I think on Slide 17, where you talk about the clear roadmap of bringing Ziggo Group leverage to 4.5x. Is that all organic deleveraging? Or would you be willing to inject cash into this business prior to the spin-off as you did with Sunrise?
Michael Fries, CEO
Great questions. I believe our network strategy for Holland and Belgium is established. We have made a clear assessment of the capital expenditure and network strategy for VodafoneZiggo's fixed business, and we are proceeding with DOCSIS 4. The team has done an excellent job rolling out 2 gig nationwide as the largest provider, and they are preparing for 4-gig and 8-gig soon. There is no strategy or plan to build fiber in the Netherlands, and we don't feel it's necessary from a commercial standpoint or appealing from a capital perspective. Therefore, the capital expenditure profile remains unchanged due to this or any announcements we are making today. Regarding leverage, we have identified two clear sources of deleveraging: organic growth and free cash flow for debt repayment, as we are currently doing in Sunrise, along with asset sales. In Holland, we have PropCo and TowerCo, and in Belgium, we have the Wyre stake. There will be asset sales, and the proceeds will be used to reduce debt, while we will also see organic growth in EBITDA and free cash flow for further deleveraging. That is the plan. At this point, we do not expect to invest any capital or cash into the Ziggo Group for the plans launching in 2027. Charlie, do you have anything to add?
Charles Bracken, CFO
No, I absolutely endorse what it is. Remember, there are significant financial synergies that we gain, which obviously provide us with strong free cash flow. I should clarify that the $500 million is the annual target, not a cumulative one. I also think Stephen and his team have performed exceptionally well. As they achieve this EBITDA turnaround, you can calculate how that contributes to reaching the 4.5 target, which we believe is feasible based on what we observed in Sunrise.
Operator, Operator
The next question will go to the line of Matthew Harrigan with StoneX.
Matthew Harrigan, Analyst
Since I'm the last American left in the draw again. When I talk to your U.S. peers on AI, they don't anticipate significant measurable benefits this year, but expect substantial improvements by 2028. Is this something you incorporate into your projections? Moreover, the market isn't currently recognizing the value of your ventures plus cash, meaning they're not accounting for your telecom operating expenses. What are your thoughts on seeing a noticeable impact in the numbers? Looking at AI, it's clear that much of the value in your network has been taken by Silicon Valley and other tech companies. When AI truly takes hold, will you realize 85% of the benefits on the cost side? Or do you foresee some revenue boosts that could also benefit you? I realize this is quite a broad question, but it could be transformative to reduce your operating expenses, even if it takes 8 to 10 years.
Michael Fries, CEO
Yes. Look, I'll address that generally, and I'll ask Enrique to step in and provide a bit more color. But three things are really driving for any telco driving the benefits from AI, right? Beginning with customer acquisition and retention, which we're all seeing marginal improvements from the investment in our call centers and things like that. The second is fraud, credit, things like that, that can really drive down OpEx and inefficiencies. And then as you mentioned, the network and operations. And I don't know, roughly, those are each going to contribute about one-third, let's say, of the demonstrable benefits we expect to see in the next let's say, one to three years. And they're not small numbers. There will be real benefits. And I think the nice thing that I'm seeing in the space is that whereas a year ago on this call, I would have said that we're inventing a lot of these applications. Right now, we're getting bombarded with start-ups and third-parties and Silicon Valley companies that are doing a much better job in many instances of creating these solutions for us. And so the pace of integration and implementation, I think, is speeding up, and it's real. So as I said in my remarks, I don't think there's an industry better positioned to benefit from marginal improvement in CapEx, OpEx and revenue from AI. But I would emphasize the word marginal there. That's really all we're doing at this stage is finding marginal benefits. I think the real home run is to think more broadly and bigger about how we kind of disrupt our own supply chain, our own software stacks, our own operating models and to do that could be material. I'll let Enrique chime in if you want, if you're on, Enrique.
Enrique Rodriguez, CTO
Yes. I mean I think maybe the first thing I'll emphasize, Mike, is, as you said, it is real. We have gone from a year ago exploring AI to now seeing real benefits being delivered today and even more importantly, over the next 12 to 24 months, pretty material improvements. I would say, maybe as most of the industry is seeing a lot of benefits on the call center and the support part of the business first. We'll see that going to operations. But we're really, really getting excited about what we're starting to see as innovation more on the revenue side. I think we're going to see '26, at the end of '26, we're going to look back and look at those revenue opportunities as the year where they became real.
Charles Bracken, CFO
Mike, can I just have a quick plug. Sorry, I was going to say can I have a quick plug at sort of Liberty Blume. Look, the other aspect of this is back-office services, which is not as big as what Mike and Enrique said in the front office and middle office, but the back office still is material for telco, and it's about $1 billion, $1.5 billion by some definitions of spend for us. And what Blume is finding out is there's lots of tech enablement with AI tools to significantly reduce their accounting, their payments, their procurement of these financial products, etc. And we're finding actually these are opportunities where we're getting massive savings by reducing heads, but we're able to scale our existing heads to grow revenues. And that's really what's driving that 20% revenue growth that we see in Blume. And actually, we see that continuing for many years.
Operator, Operator
Our next question will go to the line of Polo Tang with UBS.
Polo Tang, Analyst
It's really about VMO2 guidance. It was weaker than expected with a minus 3% to minus 5% decline in EBITDA. I think consensus on the same basis was probably getting for about minus 1%. Can you help us understand how much of the decline relates to the rationalization in B2B that may be specific to VMO2? And separately, how much of the decline reflects weakness in the broader U.K. markets? And can you maybe just give us some color in terms of what you're seeing in terms of U.K. competitive dynamics in both mobile and broadband. And I also have a quick clarification in terms of the Netomnia Nexfibre deal because VMO2 is receiving in GBP 1.1 billion of cash from Nexfibre. But can you clarify what VMO2 is giving up? So specifically, what is the minimum commitment on the 4.6 million fiber footprint? And can you give some sense in terms of what the wholesale rate is per subscriber?
Michael Fries, CEO
Yes. Thanks, Polo. I'll let Lutz address your first question around VMO2 guidance and what we're seeing in the market. And then Andrea, you can work up a good answer to the question around VMO2's commitments. I don't know how specific we're being about that as we sit here now, Polo, but I'll let Andrea address that. Guys?
Lutz Schüler, CFO
Yes. Polo, so you can broadly contribute 30% to the B2B restatement of numbers, including Daisy. And 70% is attributed to a cautious view on the fixed consumer market. So it's not mobile, it is fixed consumer. As we all know, competition is very high as we speak. Yes, as Mike alluded to, I think we had a pretty good Q4 with very low fixed net add losses and a pretty stable ARPU. But so far, right, the market is even more competitive. There's some fixed telecom access ready outstanding from Ofcom. And therefore, we have factored this in a cautious guidance. The reason why you see a similar number on EBITDA is simply that we are also paying more and more wholesale fees to Nexfibre, and that is, to some extent, eating up some of our efficiencies.
Michael Fries, CEO
To clarify, the guidance we provided today for VMO2 does not include the transaction with Substantial Group. This is all occurring in real time.
Charles Bracken, CFO
Yes, we're going to have to amend it.
Lutz Schüler, CFO
Completely excludes it also. I think, Mike, why I said Nexfibre is we have a growing customer base in the existing Nexfibre coverage.
Andrea Salvato, Director of Finance
Polo, I believe there were three questions. One was about whether we have any minimum penetration commitments. The answer is no, there will be an adjustment at closing based on how many subscribers are transferred, but this is manageable. Moving forward, there are no minimum commitments or migration commitments. The transaction is structured to allow Lutz full flexibility in managing the transition from HFC to fiber, which we consider important in the market context. The second question was about what VMO2 is receiving. To break it down, VMO2 is getting $1.1 billion in cash and a 15% stake in Nexfibre. In return, they will spend GBP 150 million to acquire approximately 500,000 subscribers at closing, which is the estimate from the Substantial Group. They will also commit traffic for 4.6 million homes, 2.4 million of which are in the overlapping Netomnia area, while the remaining 2.1 million are in new homes being added to Nexfibre 2.0, strategically selected to create a seamless network. I'm sorry, there was a third point I was going to mention.
Michael Fries, CEO
Third question is, are we providing any detail on wholesale rates and things of that nature. And the answer is no.
Operator, Operator
Our next question will go to the line of Ulrich Rathe with Bernstein Societe Generale Group.
Ulrich Rathe, Analyst
On the Belgium deal, you mentioned a synergy figure there. Could you talk a little bit about what kind of synergies these are because this is a cross-border deal where the story in European telecoms has always been that it's harder to create synergies. And specifically on the synergies, would the financial synergies that Charlie sort of alluded to be included in that EUR 1 billion figure. And if I may just add a clarification, there was some Bloomberg sort of headlines about Telenet deferring a refinancing because of difficult markets. Could you comment on that, if that is appropriate at this time?
Michael Fries, CEO
Charlie?
Charles Bracken, CFO
Yes. Let me just comment on the Telenet refinancing. I think we felt that the market fully understood the number of steps we were taking in Belgium, which we essentially were to pay down debt to 4.5x on Telenet through the Wyre sale and the fact that we docked in the refinancing to separate out Wyre at the EUR 4.35 billion, we thought have been well understood. I think it probably was in hindsight too much for the credit market to digest in one go. And that's fine. I mean it was an opportunistic transaction as we always do. We thought that by halving the amount of available Belgium debt, there'll be a lot more demand than we felt, and it was a pretty choppy market. And you may recall, it was a softer market that we had a few weeks ago. So I think the discretion is the better part of our approach. Nick and I felt that the right thing to do is take a pause. We will let these transactions settle. We'll prove out the various steps. And at the right time, we'll go away and do what we usually do, which is in the $500 million to $1 billion tranches refinanced. But we still have plenty of time. I think as we tried to show in the results call, we actually don't have any material debt maturities, if you include our revolver until 2029 in Telenet, but we're very confident, and hopefully the credit markets will support this, that as these steps unfold, we can essentially reprice the debt and extend the maturity. And it's interesting, actually, the debt still trades at a very tight level despite this transaction last week, which perhaps is a bit bewildering. Look, I think in terms of the synergies, I think I slightly disagree that I think there are cross-border synergies. Enrique has proved that with the incredible work he's been doing on technology. I mean there's an awful lot of scale benefits and national technology doesn't really have a difference market to market. And I think also, as you rightly point out, the ability to drive financial synergies will come because we are able to use the platform that we will create in VodafoneZiggo and Telenet to really drive the technology across the broader footprint, which obviously has some benefits to us. So I think we feel pretty good about the synergies. And actually, to be honest with you, we might have undercooked them because we were obviously operating on a clean team basis in this transaction. So stay tuned. Let's see what we can come up with.
Michael Fries, CEO
Yes. Our track record on synergies is pretty good. And I would agree with Charlie's comment that we've probably undercooked them, especially on the OpEx and potential revenue side. Does that answer all your questions, Ulrich?
Ulrich Rathe, Analyst
Yes. I was just wondering, so are the financial synergies included? Or is the $1 billion just the operational bit.
Michael Fries, CEO
They are included.
Charles Bracken, CFO
They are included, yes.
Operator, Operator
Our next question goes from the line of David Wright with Bank of America.
David Wright, Analyst
There is a lot to take in. When considering the Ziggo spin, it presents a compelling equity opportunity like Sunrise, but it's important to note that, unlike Sunrise, which offered clear and strong dividends in a low-interest-rate environment, Ziggo lacks a dividend narrative. Additionally, what is the required synergy run rate you need to achieve in the short term to confidently proceed with the spin? Is that timeline fixed? Also, the VodZiggo guidance seems notably lower than expected, particularly when compared to VMO2. As you reassess this business, my curiosity lies in whether you're setting your projections conservatively, aiming for a level you can reliably meet, while potentially increasing investment in 2026 for future growth.
Michael Fries, CEO
Yes, David, those are great questions. I'll address them, and Stephen can chime in as well. Regarding timing, we have intentionally kept it general. We anticipate that by 2027, particularly in the second half of next year, we will be able to see or forecast the narrative that the market is looking for. This aligns with our experience from Sunrise, which included a deleveraging story driven by free cash flow, EBITDA growth, and asset sales. Additionally, we provided a free cash flow projection today of EUR 500 million, which is 50% higher than what Sunrise generates. While this won't materialize this year or next, we believe we will have a clear forecast for that free cash flow by the time we approach the market. We've also reiterated our How We Win plan, providing visuals that show 2026 is an investment year, leading to a rebound in 2027 and 2028. When these elements come together, we believe they will create a compelling equity narrative. Importantly, unlike Oddo, we are not launching this company through an initial public offering, and we are not focused on building a book or securing a minimum price. We are spinning off the shares directly to shareholders as we did with Sunrise, and we are confident the market will recognize a healthy value above the negative $5 currently reflected in our stock. It's crucial to believe there is significant equity value in this story, and that value will perform well in the Euronext exchange environment, supported by a strong operating narrative. I believe we have considerable flexibility and freedom to determine how, when, and what we do, which I find very exciting. Stephen, would you like to add anything from the Vodafone perspective?
Stephen van Rooyen, CEO of VodafoneZiggo
Well, I think the only component I'd add to it is that, as you said, can you hear me, Mike?
Michael Fries, CEO
Got you.
Stephen van Rooyen, CEO of VodafoneZiggo
So look, as you said, I think the core of it is that we have an unfolding story of business improvement. So the underlying value of the core VodafoneZiggo business, I think, will come through as we get through the investment in 2026 and into 2027. We've shown a track record so far in the last 12 months, and we've got high confidence given what we're seeing today and given the plans we have ahead of us that 2026 will be another step forward in the plan. And as you say, 2027 will show those return on investments, and we'll accelerate out of that. So I think the core business, if you value the core business, will look slightly different in 12 months from now.
Operator, Operator
Our next question goes to the line of James Ratzer with New Street Research.
James Ratzer, Analyst
So I was interested in following up on the slide you had to discuss the kind of Netomnia Virgin transaction in a bit more detail on Slide 22. So you've got a very kind of helpful chart there showing all the cash movements. Could you just run me through also what the debt movements are because Netomnia, I think, will have around maybe a bit over GBP 1 billion of debt on closing. Does that all go to Nexfibre? Or does some of it go to VMO2? And then of the subscribers or the homes, sorry, you've got the 2.5 million homes where VMO2 is going to pay committed wholesale fees on closing. How many subscribers does VMO2 have in that footprint, please? And then secondly, on the 2.1 million homes that then Nexfibre will be upgrading, what's VMO2's customer volume in that footprint? And to give us an idea of kind of Lutz's incentive to migrate customers over to FTTH, can you let us know, please, how many customers today within VMO2 have been upgraded from HFC to FTTH, where VMO2 has done that upgrade itself as a result of the overlay.
Michael Fries, CEO
Thanks, James. Charlie, you hit the debt question, please?
Charles Bracken, CFO
Yes. So first of all, there's no incremental debt going on to VMO2. I'm not sure how much we're disclosing, but I would underline that Nexfibre will have a fully financed business plan to get to 8 million fiber homes, with a combination of existing debt, but also the undrawn facilities. So this is a fully financed cash flow positive AltNet, which I don't think we can say about all of them. And I think in terms of the details of the numbers, look, let's take that offline because I'm not sure what we've agreed to disclose or not disclose. But that is the key message, fully financed and no debt into VMO2.
Michael Fries, CEO
Regarding the 4.6 million homes, while we're not providing the number of customers today, you can infer from our general penetration rates in those areas. It will likely align closely with our current penetration rates. I believe that's a good estimate. Lutz, would you like to address the fiber question?
Lutz Schüler, CFO
So far, we have a very small number of fiber customers in our existing Virgin Media, O2 cable coverage. The majority of our fiber customers come from the Nexfibre network. No customers are leaving us due to technology, and we are acquiring the same number of customers on both the cable and fiber networks. Therefore, at this moment, we do not have an incentive to shift customers to fiber, which is why we currently have a low number.
Michael Fries, CEO
Yes. But in this, you should assume in the deal we just announced, there will be some incentives, for example, cost to connect, wholesale rates, but we're not disclosing those details today.
Operator, Operator
That will conclude the formal question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to you, Mr. Fries, for closing remarks.
Michael Fries, CEO
Sure. Thanks for sticking with us, guys. Sorry, we went a little bit over. We had a lot, as you said, to disclose. I just want to say quickly, thank you to everybody on the call today from my team because this has been a Herculean effort, and just about everybody on this call was involved in these transactions and of course, delivering these results. So thank you to each of you for the great work and terrific, terrific outcomes. And look at the deals we think were announced today, I'm excited about. I think they unlock both value but also give us a tactical runway to control our destiny here, specifically in the Benelux region, but also, I think, increasingly in the U.K. market. So they're the right kind of deals. That's exactly what we told you we would do a year ago. I think you can trust us when we tell you where we're focused, what we're focused on and how we intend to create value. So I appreciate you joining us. I know there'll be a lot of questions and follow-up, you know where to find us. So thank you, everybody.
Operator, Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Global's Fourth Quarter 2025 Investor Call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the Investor Relations section of Liberty Global's website. There, you can also find a copy of today's presentation materials.