Earnings Call Transcript - LILA Q2 2022

Operator, Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Today's call is being recorded. I'll now turn the call over to Rocio Lorenzo, Chief Customer Officer of Liberty Latin America.

Rocio Lorenzo, Chief Customer Officer

Good morning, and welcome to Liberty Latin America's Second Quarter 2022 Investor Call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Today's formal presentation materials can be found under the Investors section of Liberty Latin America's website at www.lla.com. Following today's formal presentation, instructions will be given for a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this call is being recorded and will be available under the Investors section of our website. Today's remarks may include forward-looking statements, including the company's expectations with respect to its outlook and future growth prospects and other information and statements that are not historical facts. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these statements. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in Liberty Latin America's most recently filed annual report on Form 10-K and the quarterly report on Form 10-Q most recently filed with the SEC, along with the associated press release. Liberty Latin America disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements or information to reflect any change in its expectations or in the conditions on which any such statement or information is based. In addition, on this call, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measures, which can be found in the appendices to this presentation, which is accessible under the Investors section of our website. I would now like to turn the call over to our CEO, Mr. Balan Nair.

Balan Nair, CEO

Thank you, Rocio, and welcome, everybody to Liberty Latin America's Second Quarter Results Presentation. I'll begin with our group highlights and an overview of our operating results. Chris Noyes, our CFO, will then follow with a review of the company's financial performance. After that, we'll get straight to your questions. As always, I'm joined by my executive team from across the region, and I will invite them to contribute as needed during the Q&A following our prepared remarks. As a point of housekeeping, we will both be working from slides, which you can find on our website at www.lla.com. Starting on Slide 4, and our highlights for the quarter, each of which we'll pick up in further detail during the presentation. Revenue was up by 1% on a rebased basis, which was in line with our first quarter performance. Our Q2 performance was driven by a 6% year-over-year rebased growth in C&W and Panama and Liberty Costa Rica, which was up 10% year-over-year on a rebased basis. Our fixed Internet subscriber base grew by 9,000 in the second quarter as we reported record additions in Costa Rica and an important return to growth in C&W driven by Jamaica. In mobile, we continue to see exciting results from our commercial focus on postpaid, and Q2 was the second consecutive quarter in which we delivered more than 100,000 net postpaid additions. On July 1, we completed our acquisition of Claro Panama. We are encouraged by our initial steps in integrating the business, even though we will only combine our commercial activities early next year. Having said that, we are confident we can achieve our plan for the combined operations in the market. Finally, we further accelerated our buyback activity with $63 million of shares repurchased in the second quarter. This is our most active quarter yet, representing over 10% more purchases than in Q1. We were also pleased to release our 2021 ESG report in July, where we demonstrated significant progress in measuring and highlighting new goals with respect to our energy consumption, data privacy and security efforts, and strengthening our commitment to positive change.

Christopher Noyes, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Balan. Similar to the first quarter, we generated revenue of $1.22 billion, reflecting an approximately $45 million increase or 4% reported growth as compared to $1.17 billion of revenue for the Q2 2021 period. Positive contributions from Costa Rica, including the impact from the Telefonica acquisition and strong organic growth in C&W Caribbean & Networks and C&W Panama helped to fuel our revenue expansion year-over-year. Partially offsetting this growth, foreign currency depreciation versus the U.S. dollar in the quarter reduced our reported revenue by over $30 million, with the largest impact attributable to the weakening Chilean peso as the average rate fell by roughly 18% quarter-over-quarter and an organic top line reduction in Chile stemming from continuing high competitive intensity. On a rebased basis for the quarter, we once again delivered modest rebased growth of 1%. Moving to adjusted OIBDA. We improved sequentially from $440 million in Q1 2022 to $464 million in Q2, which was comparable to last year's reported figure. Our Q2 result reflects a rebased decline of 2% over Q2 2021 as our double-digit rebased increase in C&W Caribbean & Networks and 4% growth in Costa Rica was more than offset by declines in Chile, Puerto Rico, and Panama. Integration costs totaled $7 million across LLA and negatively impacted our rebased growth rate by about 1 percentage point on a year-over-year basis. Turning to the third quadrant. Our P&E additions were $192 million in Q2 or 16% of revenue as compared to $215 million or 18% of revenue last year. About half of our quarterly spend was attributable to CPE and new building upgrade. In particular, we added 162,000 new build and/or upgraded homes in Q2, bringing our year-to-date total to nearly 330,000. We incurred about $10 million of integration CapEx in the quarter, and including Claro Panama for H2, we expect to incur total integration CapEx of about $50 million in 2022. To finish this slide, we posted $73 million in adjusted free cash flow in Q2, a doubling over Q2 2021 levels. We expect H2 FCF to ramp significantly due in large part to higher adjusted OIBDA and substantially better working capital in the second half. In terms of phasing, we expect our FCF in H2 to be substantially generated in Q4.

Balan Nair, CEO

Overall, the group continued to deliver broadband adds with particularly robust results in Costa Rica and Puerto Rico. Turning to Slide 6 and our mobile performance. We have highlighted postpaid adds as this is a driver of growth in recurring revenue, which is our focus. Postpaid ARPU is over three times prepaid ARPU, which is why we are focused on this growth. Starting in the top left of the slide and C&W. We delivered another strong quarter of postpaid adds, nearly doubling the level of net adds in the prior year period and building nicely on a sequential basis. Jamaica drove the majority of Q2 performance with 9,000 adds, up more than 50% sequentially and over 100% year-over-year. Turning to Puerto Rico. As with C&W, we generated significantly more postpaid adds than the prior year quarter. Sequentially, we continue to benefit, although to a lesser extent, from a government initiative incentivizing mobile data access for teachers and students. Moving to the right of the slide in Costa Rica, our largest mobile operations in terms of subscribers. We added 30,000 postpaid subscribers in the second quarter and were confirmed as the number one mobile player in the market by the regulator in their latest report, which is a testament to our service levels and propositions in the market. On the bottom left of the slide, we present Panama's performance. We added 28,000 postpaid subscribers in the second quarter, sustaining our strong Q1 numbers and taking our postpaid adds in the last four quarters to 86,000. Postpaid subscription revenue continues to grow strongly and was up by nearly 40% as compared to the prior year period. Lastly, in Chile, our adds were driven by the competitive Phoenix plans we first launched in March. Overall, we were pleased to deliver postpaid subscriber growth across all our reporting segments and another quarter above 100,000 additions in aggregate. Next to Slide 7 and our B2B operations. Starting on the left of the slide, we delivered another strong quarter in B2B as our markets continue to recover from the impacts of COVID-19. Our revenue was 8% higher overall in Q2, with growth across B2B services and our Networks and LatAm businesses within C&W. In B2B services, we grew our fixed Internet and mobile subscription revenue and had a strong quarter for project awards, particularly in Panama. Networks and LatAm had another solid quarter with underlying growth in recurring revenue year-over-year. Above the chart, we have highlighted the gross revenue generated by our Networks and LatAm operations. This is the sum of the reported totals in the bars for the respective periods, plus intercompany eliminations that are removed in our consolidated financials. You can see that total revenue increased by about $75 million in 2021 and $40 million in the first half of this year when looking at the Networks and LatAm business through this lens. I want to take a moment here to also update you on our strategic review for the Networks and LatAm business, which includes our subsea networks and B2B operations in markets where we don't have a consumer-facing product, such as Colombia. As discussed on previous calls, we believe that these assets are not accurately reflected in our public valuation. We can confirm that we tested the market and received strong indicative responses. This was the right track. But given recent market conditions, including the financial markets and macro uncertainty, we have decided to put things on hold for now. We are excited about this business, and from our strategic review, we will continue to invest and grow this highly cash-generative infrastructure-based business. Finally, to Slide 8, where we want to share some updates on our inorganic activities. We expect these transactions will drive significant stakeholder value through free cash flow growth. Starting on the left of the slide with our closed deals, which include Panama as of 1st of July. In aggregate, these deals are expected to drive over $150 million of synergy value to the group, which will include a significant uplift to our free cash flow in the coming years. We are in the early stages in Panama, but we are excited about the potential for our combined business. As I mentioned before, we will be combining the commercial activities at the start of next year due to regulatory requirements. However, we have been free to combine the network and back office from the day we closed. As with the Movil's acquisitions, there are dis-synergies in the initial phase post-close, and Chris will pick up on the short-term financial impacts in his section. Once we are through this period, we anticipate significant upside with $70 million of free cash flow benefiting synergies across cost and CapEx. In Puerto Rico and Costa Rica, we continue to be on track with our plans. Post operations in Costa Rica were rebranded to the Liberty name in June this year, coinciding with the nation's qualifications for the FIFA 2022 Football World Cup for which we have exclusive mobile streaming rights. Puerto Rico is benefiting from converged bundle offers with all stores now selling both fixed and mobile products, and we have also begun to deliver FMC for our customers in Costa Rica. Finally, we passed a significant milestone in Puerto Rico with our new mobile core becoming operational. We'll continue to test the platform ahead of customer migration as we move into 2023. Moving to the right of the slide, we remain confident that we will complete our 50-50 joint venture with Claro Chile this year. Chile is an extremely competitive environment with multiple operators. However, we expect good long-term prospects for that market. This transaction should facilitate market repair in addition to generating significant synergy value in excess of $180 million. These synergies will help fund and grow the combined business. Overall, we believe that through our operational and inorganic progress, we are set to deliver meaningful adjusted free cash flow growth in the coming years, particularly as synergies are achieved. And it is hard to contemplate any M&A with better risk-adjusted returns than the current opportunity to repurchase our own securities. With that, I'll pass you over to Chris Noyes, our Chief Financial Officer, who will talk you through our financial performance before we take your questions.

Christopher Noyes, Chief Financial Officer

Soomit Datta, Analyst

First of all, just please, on free cash flow from Claro Panama. So you've highlighted the impact this year. Could you give us a sense as to the direction of travel there over the next year or two? You've talked about reaching synergies, I think, full run rate in 2024, if I'm not wrong, but I just wanted to check was that kind of at the end of the year, beginning of the year? How will that negative drag ease over the next year or two would be helpful? That's the first question, please.

Balan Nair, CEO

Yes, as we indicated, we expect to see the benefits from the synergies begin to materialize in 2024, likely in the latter half of that year. We are working on a number of initiatives to ensure that the commercial integration occurs early next year. This includes significant network consolidation, as both companies have a substantial number of towers that will be merged, and we will also reallocate our spectrum. Additionally, there will be store closures as part of this effort. These actions are standard following an acquisition, and we anticipate the synergy outcomes from this transaction to be in the mid to low single digits, which we are committed to achieving. However, there will be costs associated with this integration that we will incur this year and into next year. Fortunately, our team is very experienced, having completed similar integrations in the past, and we are confident we will succeed in this instance as well.

Soomit Datta, Analyst

Yes, that's great. I have a quick follow-up regarding the buyback. The run rate has been quite significant in the first half and in Q2. I believe there's $107 million remaining on the authorization. How are you planning to pace this in the second half of the year?

Balan Nair, CEO

We are taking a very opportunistic approach. We have a disciplined framework for our buyback strategy. Chris and I are interested to see how the economy and various macro factors unfold in the second half of the year. We will remain disciplined, prudent, and cautious with our cash. We do have a strategy in place, we are actively buying, and we will continue to do so, but we will also consider the state of the economy. There is still much to learn.

Kevin Roe, Analyst

A couple of questions on C&W, please, Balan. Jamaica, it was nice to see that returning to broadband. Subscriber growth, could you give us some more color on the drivers of positive subscriber growth in Internet, maybe an update on the competitive landscape? And do you expect this positive trend to continue in H2? And the second C&W question is more general on the health of the consumer sort of a real-time snapshot given inflationary pressures everywhere. Are you seeing any changes in bad debt, prepaid top-ups, days outstanding on billing, etc.?

Balan Nair, CEO

Sure, Kevin. I'll ask Inge to join in shortly as well. In Jamaica, we faced some challenges in the first quarter and even a bit into the second quarter. The situation can be described as a tale of three markets: our copper network, our HFC network, and our new fiber-to-the-home network on the fixed side. We've been growing our fiber network while experiencing some issues with the copper network. The HFC network, which has traditionally shown reliable growth, saw some fluctuations in the first quarter. Inge and her team revamped our commercial offerings, leading to improvements which are reflected in our numbers, particularly in the latter part of the second quarter. We're also observing this positive trend continuing into the third quarter. Jamaica is a duopoly market with strong competition, but we're performing well there. Generally, across the islands, we conducted an extensive study analyzing consumer behavior and we currently do not see any affordability issues for our customers. We are keeping a close watch on this situation. While inflation and unemployment are rising in these markets, our product remains in high demand, and surveys indicate that it's one of the last luxuries people would consider giving up. We feel good about our position. I’ll ask Inge to provide more details and insights from the ground.

Inge Smidts, Executive Team Member

Yes. In Jamaica, I believe what has changed the trend is our offerings, which are specifically tailored to the right segments on the right network, and this strategy is beginning to pay off. As Balan mentioned, we are maintaining this positive trend. From a competitive standpoint, we are strong in both mobile and fixed services. I am confident that with our new offerings and the way we operate the business there, we will continue to achieve good results. Regarding Cable & Wireless, as Balan indicated, it's about having the appropriate offerings, which we have improved across the Caribbean region. We've enhanced our speeds to ensure that everyone has access to the right products at optimal speed because we believe this is essential. We are convinced that with the right offerings and speed upgrades, we will continue to meet consumer expectations effectively.

Matthew Harrigan, Analyst

You know how challenging it can be to apply trends from developed markets to emerging markets, but there is a consistent discussion in the U.S. and Europe about low movement activity and its impact on broadband growth and other sectors, despite having favorable churn rates. Can you share if you are experiencing this in any markets? Do you anticipate a rebound, or is this mostly insignificant for most markets? For example, Puerto Rico might exhibit some behaviors similar to the U.S. Additionally, with the significant political changes in the region over the past year, is there anything concerning to you? I know you manage things closely and have some presence in Colombia, and you are also monitoring the situation in Chile regarding deal approvals.

Balan Nair, CEO

Matthew, good question. On the moves as far as that impacting churn, unlike Europe and the United States, in our case, voluntary churn is less driven by moves and mostly driven by pricing. People do jump around and shop at the best deals. And that's why we have kind of an elevated churn. I mean it's one of the things about the region that we've been working pretty hard on because you have high gross adds and then you have high churn. So you're kind of like recycling customers between you and your competitor. And so there are a number of initiatives we've put in place. We started work on this early this year. We'll start to see some of the fruits of that labor probably in the fourth quarter to first quarter next year. That kind of tamps it down a little bit. We tried that in Chile as well. We tried the forever pricing to help with our churn. We saw some positive responses to them. But churn activity in our region is very different than North America and Europe. It is slightly more elevated than those other regions. On the political front, we keep very close track. It does impact, but not significantly. Perhaps if we were doing a transaction, political situations, of course, both on the buyer and the seller side, you'd look at that very closely. But from a day-to-day operations, our teams are completely focused on the customer. While we monitor all the regulatory issues in front of us, at this point, we don't see any headwinds from a regulatory standpoint. And that's a testament to the team that we have here under our General Counsel and our regulatory teams; they are completely on top of it. They spend a lot of time with regulators, with government officials. We're quite proactive. Our local general managers, we encourage them, and we co-opt them to also spend time with regulators and with government officials. And I can say with confidence across the board, we do have very good relationships. It's a very transparent, honest relationship with government officials, and we provide a service that they value as well. We do it in a way, I think that's very friendly to communities. So I think we're going to be fine on that front, regardless of all the recent election outcomes.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to hand back to Balan Nair for any additional or closing remarks.

Balan Nair, CEO

Thank you, operator. And of course, thank you to everybody on the call. Clearly, you've seen our second quarter numbers, our first quarter numbers. The first half is just okay. If you look at the guidance reiterated by Chris, the second half is a bigger half for us, the whole team is committed to that. There's a lot of good things that will happen certainly in the fourth quarter on the working capital front, on the commercial front. The team is really committed to it. But I think if I look at our business, really, the growth is in the future. The free cash flow story, we've been committed to that from the beginning; we said this business is run on free cash flow. As Chris pointed out in his closing remarks as well, that the free cash flow story for this company over the next few years is going to be quite positive. Some of the math we can clearly do just from even just the integration. So we feel really good. We thank you for your support, and we'll be talking to you again in 90 days.

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes Liberty Latin America's Second Quarter 2022 Investor Call. As a reminder, a replay of the call will be available in the Investor Relations section of Liberty Latin America's website at www.lla.com. There, you can also find a copy of today's presentation materials.