Earnings Call Transcript - LVWR Q1 2024

Shawn Collins, Director of Investor Relations

Thank you. Good morning. This is Shawn Collins, the Director of Investor Relations at Harley-Davidson. You can access the slides supporting today's call on the internet at the Harley-Davidson Investor Relations website. As you might expect, our comments will include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted in today's earnings release and in our latest filings with the SEC. Joining me for this morning's call are Harley-Davidson's Chief Executive Officer, Jochen Zeitz; also Chief Financial Officer, Jonathan Root, and we have LiveWire's Chief Executive Officer, Karim Donnez. With that, let me turn it over to our CEO, Jochen Zeitz. Jochen?

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

Thank you, Shawn, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Q1 2024 results. Harley-Davidson delivered a good start to the year, in line with our expectations. Looking at retail for the quarter, we are pleased with our delivery of 6% growth in North America, our largest and most important region. In Q1, we continued to see the impacts of the higher interest rate environment on both consumer confidence and affordability. However, it is positive to see customer enthusiasm for motorcycles despite this challenging environment. Outside of North America, both the Europe and APAC regions were soft, mainly due to regional macroeconomic conditions. However, it is also worth noting that our '24 product only started to arrive in the international regions in March and is just now making its way into most international markets. As the riding season is starting to get into gear, we are excited for our riders and fans, both inside and outside of North America to get to experience the next era of Harley-Davidson touring motorcycles. As usual, I will now briefly address select Hardwire strategic pillars and our delivery of them, starting with Pillar 1, profit focus. When we announced our hardware strategy back in 2021, we made a commitment to invest in our core categories. Building on that commitment this year, we ushered in a new area of motorcycle touring by reimagining two of the most iconic motorcycles in history, the Harley-Davidson Street and Road Glide with the most comprehensive product redevelopment in well over 10 years. Overall, we are very pleased with our new model year launch and in particular, our new touring lineup, which is being received very positively by customers, dealers, and media alike. One outlet summarized the launch particularly well. The motor company took the motorcycling world by surprise with the release of the revamped versions of the Road Glide and Street Glide, completely different from their predecessors, with a more modernized approach that made them superior to the previous generation in nearly every facet. The all-new Street Glide and Road Glide models have set a new standard for the industry and the future of touring and adventure on two wheels, with exceptional performance, cutting-edge innovation, and bold new design, representing the largest investment made by the motor company into a single platform. We believe that by elevating every aspect of performance, technology, comfort, and style we have, without question, created the most enticing touring motorcycles ever offered by Harley-Davidson. We continue to see significant positivity for the product across the network and are excited for our riders to have full access to the lineup as the riding season gets underway. Included in our '24 launch and designed to celebrate 25 years of custom vehicle operations, our CVO lineup expanded with the introduction of the all-new CVO Road Glide ST, representing the pinnacle of Becker Performance, and the CVO Pan America fully kitted out for extraordinary adventures. The CVO Road Glide ST is the lightest, fastest, and most sophisticated performance bagger ever produced by Harley-Davidson. Drawing from our popular Low Rider ST offering, the CVO Road Glide ST combines West Coast custom style and the performance trend that we've been feeling with the King of the Bagger Racing series. To quote another outlet, the CVO ST is the best motorcycle Harley-Davidson has ever put out. For '24, we also repriced both the CVO Street and Road Glide models that we introduced during Homecoming last year in exciting new color options. The CVO Pan America is another new vehicle and the CVO program's first adventure touring motorcycle. All of the features that have made the Pan America 1250 especially a leading choice among discerning global adventure touring riders have been retained, with the CVO Pan America being kitted out with a host of rugged accessories selected to enhance the journey. With the Hardwire, we also made a commitment to introduce a series of motorcycles that align with our strategy to increase desirability and to drive the legacy of Harley-Davidson. With that in mind, this February during Daytona Bike Week, we revealed the latest additions to our limited edition Harley-Davidson icons and the limited run enthusiast collection. For the '24 icons models, we launched the Hydra-Glide Revival, celebrating the 75th year of this iconic motorcycle. The release was inspired by the look of the motorcycles that were ridden in the era of the upcoming film, The Bikeriders, which follows the rise of a Midwestern Motorcycle Club as seen through the lives of its members. Coming to your screens this summer, the film is scheduled to be released in the United States on June 21. For the '24 enthusiast offering, we celebrated both music and motorcycles with the release of the Tobacco Fade Enthusiast motorcycle collection available across three models: the Low Rider ST, the Ultra Limited, and the Tri Glide Ultra. Again, we've seen a very positive response from customers to these offerings just in time for the riding season to get well underway. Moving on to Pillar 3, leading in electric. LiveWire continued to pioneer the EV segment with the launch of the S2 Mulholland, an all-new electric cruiser, the second bike on the S2 platform. The bike has been met with a very positive response in the industry as Karim will detail shortly. We're also very pleased that LiveWire has become the market leader for on-road EV motorcycles in the U.S. this past quarter. With the company increasing its focus on vehicle and operational costs, it will also consolidate its operations in Milwaukee at Harley-Davidson's historic headquarters at Juno Avenue. Turning to Pillar 4, growth beyond bikes. In February, through HDFS, we launched Harley-Davidson Flex Financing. For the first time in our history, this innovative loan option provides an alternate way to purchase a Harley-Davidson motorcycle. By combining the benefits of attractive monthly payments, shorter terms, and greater flexibility throughout the loan period, the product offers customers the ability to return the motorcycle at the end of the term, ready to replace or upgrade into the next Harley-Davidson purchase. We are committed to putting customers at the forefront of our products and experiences; HD Flex does just that while providing them with another innovative financing option to make Harley-Davidson motorcycle ownership fit their individual budget and lifestyle. Pillar 5, customer experience. We are just under 100 days to go until our second annual homecoming event taking place from July 25 to 28. Last week, we announced the full roster of performances with headliners including the Red Hot Chili Peppers, Jelly Roll, and Hardy. Tickets are now on sale and we look forward to coming together with our community of fans, riders, and their families to celebrate our brand of motoculture and music. I hope to see many of you there. Lastly, on Pillar 6, inclusive stakeholder management. We are looking forward to formally unveiling the new community park at our Juno Avenue headquarters on June 24. The project, which has been pioneered by the Harley-Davidson Foundation, is aimed at further connecting the company, our brand, and our employees to the local community, reinforcing our commitment to our hometown, Milwaukee. We could not be more excited to show you our neighborhood on the near West side. Before I hand over to Karim to cover LiveWire, I would like to cover our outlook for the rest of the year. As we said earlier in the year for HDMC, we expect retail units to be flat to up 9%. From an inventory point of view, we believe these are appropriately positioned with the riding season getting into swing, and we continue to expect that wholesale unit shipments will move together with dealer retail sales on a balanced basis by the end of '24. This range would equate to wholesale unit shipments being down between 1% and 10% versus the prior year. This will result in HDMC revenue coming in flat to down 9%. We expect HDMC operating income margin of 12.6% to 13.6%. This is flat to down 100 basis points from the '23 level. Let me mention the specific drivers of this again: negative operating leverage due to lower wholesale volumes; foreign currency, which we expect to be a headwind; mix, which we expect to be slightly favorable; pricing, which we expect to be slightly down as we eliminated the surcharge and fine-tuned our pricing strategy; and lastly, we expect some additional manufacturing costs as we realign factory processes in the initial year of production of the new Street Glide and Road Glide motorcycles. At HDFS, we expect operating income to be up 5%, reflecting retail and wholesale portfolios and customers settling into the existing macroeconomic backdrop. As you will hear from Karim now, for the full year, LiveWire is revising its operating loss guidance and now expects an improved operating loss of $105 million to $115 million from previous guidance of an operating loss of $115 million to $125 million. Lastly, I would like to reinforce our commitment to returning excess free cash flow to our shareholders. We plan to continue to optimize our returns through share repurchases and appropriate dividend payments. You can see our commitment to capital returns since 2022 on Page 15. Since the beginning of '22 and through Q1 '24, we've bought back $773 million in shares and paid out $214 million in dividends. This equates to almost $1 billion in capital returned to shareholders since '22 and a share buyback amounting to 14% of our outstanding shares. We plan to remain on a similar trajectory to this annualized rate throughout '24. Thank you. And now I'll hand it over to Karim.

Karim Donnez, CEO of LiveWire

Thank you, Jochen. Good morning, everyone. We are pleased to announce a successful launch of the S2 Mulholland in both the United States and Canada. This is the second model cycle based on the LiveWire-developed S2 platform following the S2 Del Mar. This expands our lineup, offering more choices to LiveWire riders. The market response has been positive, with riders, retailers, and media appreciating the Mulholland's timing and the option for a lower riding position. In the first quarter, LiveWire reported sales of 117 units, which is an 86% increase compared to the first quarter of 2023. Our retail sales exceeded wholesale as Del Mar entered the market, making LiveWire the leading electric motorcycle brand in the U.S. In Europe, we started shipping S2 Del Mar to our four priority countries at the end of the quarter, and products are now available across the region. We have similar plans for the S2 model, with the first bike currently being shipped to Europe. While we aim to strengthen our market leadership, our teams are also focused on design engineering and sourcing initiatives to lower the cost of our products. Additionally, we are planning to cut spending and closely monitor cash flow to maximize our strategic investments. Consequently, we will centralize all operations at Juno Avenue in Milwaukee, moving LiveWire lab operations from California to enhance efficiency. This presents an opportunity to streamline and reassess our organizational structure for greater simplicity. We are maintaining our revenue unit outlook and now anticipate a $10 million improvement in operating loss while continuing to prioritize product innovation and market development. LiveWire is dedicated to the electrification of the sport by creating the best products and providing an unparalleled customer experience. Thank you. Now I'll turn it over to Jonathan.

Jonathan Root, CFO

Thank you, Karim, and good morning to all. I plan to start on Page 5 of the presentation, where I will briefly summarize the consolidated financial results for the first quarter of 2024, and subsequently, I will go into further detail on each business segment. Consolidated revenue in the first quarter was down 3%, driven by HDMC revenue decrease of 5%, which was partially offset by HDFS revenue growth of 12%. Consolidated operating income in the first quarter performed in line with our expectations and was down 29%, driven by a decline of 29% at HDMC, a decline of 8% at HDFS, and an operating loss of $29 million in the LiveWire segment. The consolidated operating income margin in the first quarter was 15.2%, representing a 545 basis point decline versus Q1 of 2023. The lower consolidated margin is largely due to a lower Q1 margin at HDMC driven by lower volumes, pricing, and associated throughput. I plan to go into further detail on each business segment's profit and loss drivers in the next section. First quarter earnings per share was $1.72. In Q1, global retail sales of new motorcycles were flat versus the prior year. In North America, Q1 retail sales were up 6% and driven primarily by the redesigned and all-new Street Glide and Road Glide touring motorcycles, which were introduced at the end of January. In EMEA, Q1 retail sales declined by 11% due to weakness in Germany and France. Overall, EMEA continues to be adversely impacted by macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical uncertainty, which has led to sluggish economic growth. In Asia Pacific, Q1 retail sales declined by 12%, driven by weakness primarily in China. This is the third quarter in a row where we have experienced declines in the region after six sequential quarters of solid year-over-year growth in Asia Pacific. In Latin America, Q1 retail sales experienced modest growth in both Mexico and Brazil. Dealer inventory at the end of Q1 was up approximately 26% compared to the end of Q1 in 2023. We believe current dealer inventory and product availability are in healthy positions overall as we approach the spring 2024 riding season. This is important with the recent launch of new model year 2024 motorcycles, especially with the positive reception to our new Street Glide and Road Glide touring models. Looking at revenue, HDMC revenue decreased by 5% in Q1. Focusing on the key drivers for the quarter, seven points of decline came from decreased wholesale volume at HDMC, largely due to the fact that dealers were rebuilding dealer inventory in Q1 2023 after the lows they experienced following the pandemic. Motorcycle shipments in the quarter, while below prior year, were slightly ahead of 2021 and 2022 levels. Three points of decline came from pricing, which includes the impacts of the pricing surcharge elimination, other pricing actions on 2024 models, and sales incentives. Mix contributed four points of growth as we continue to prioritize our most profitable models and markets. Finally, foreign exchange had a neutral impact compared to Q1 prior year. In Q1, HDMC gross margin was 31.2%, which compares to 35.8% in the prior year. The decrease of 450 basis points was driven by lower operating leverage and the revenue factors I just spoke about, as well as continued modest cost inflation of 1% to 2%. The majority of the units shipped in the first quarter of 2024 and 2023 were produced in the preceding fourth quarters in advance of the new model year launch. Production volumes were down 24% in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, resulting in a higher fixed cost per unit on motorcycles shipped in Q1 of 2024 compared to Q1 of 2023. The unfavorable impact of lower operating leverage was offset by other productivity savings related primarily to logistics during the quarter. HDMC operating margin came in at 16.2%, which is above our full-year expectations and in line with expectations for the quarter. At Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Q1 revenue increased by $26 million or 12%, driven by higher retail and commercial finance receivables, as well as higher average yields as the portfolio resets over time due to higher base rates, which are driving higher interest income. HDFS operating income was $54 million, down $5 million or 8% compared to last year. The Q1 decline was driven by higher borrowing costs, a higher provision for credit losses, and higher operating expenses. These increased costs were partially offset by higher interest income. Total interest expense was up $15 million or 21% versus the prior year. The increase was driven by a higher cost of funds as lower interest rate debt matured and was replaced with current market rate debt. In Q1, HDFS' annualized retail credit loss ratio was 3.7%, compared to an annualized retail credit loss ratio of 3.2% in Q1 of 2023. The increase in credit losses was driven by several factors relating to the current macroeconomic environment and the related customer and industry dynamics. Additionally, the retail allowance for credit losses for the first quarter remained flat at 5.4% from Q4 of 2023. Total retail loan originations in Q1 were up 2%, while commercial financing activities were up 22% to $1.5 billion. Total quarter-end net financing receivables, including both retail loans and commercial financing, was $7.9 billion, which was up 4% versus the prior year. For the LiveWire segment, electric motorcycles revenue decreased in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the prior year period despite higher unit sales in the quarter. The lower revenue was primarily due to product mix and a one-time adjustment relating to a change in their retail partner strategy. Selling, engineering, and administrative expenses remained relatively flat compared to the prior year. As expected, basic revenue was down compared to Q1 of 2023, primarily due to a reduction in third-party brand and distributor volumes. LiveWire's operating loss of $29 million was in line with our expectations as LiveWire continued to invest in new motorcycle models and action initiatives to reduce EV costs. Additionally, SG&A was flat to the prior year. Wrapping up with consolidated Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s full-year financial results, we delivered $104 million of operating cash flow in Q1, which was up from $47 million in the prior period. The increase in operating cash flow was due primarily to lower net cash outflows for wholesale financing and favorable changes in working capital compared to Q1 of 2023. Total cash and cash equivalents ended at $1.5 billion, which was $97 million lower than at the end of Q1 prior year. This consolidated cash number includes $141 million at LiveWire. Additionally, as part of our capital allocation strategy and in line with our commitment to return capital to our shareholders, we bought back 2.5 million shares of our stock at a value of $98 million in Q1 of 2024. As we look to the rest of 2024, we remain excited about our new 2024 motorcycle lineup, and as Jochen discussed, we are reaffirming our full-year guidance with the exception of the improvement noted in LiveWire operating loss. I would like to put some unit numbers to our 2024 outlook that Jochen cited earlier, and these are in line with what we said on our last earnings call, which took place in February. At HDMC, we expect that retail units sold and wholesale unit shipments will move together on a balanced basis in 2024. We expect 163,000 to 178,000 retail and wholesale units. This results in HDMC revenue coming in flat to down 9% versus prior year. Lastly, I will touch on a couple of additional items in terms of capital investments and capital allocation. We continue to expect total HDI capital investments in the range of $225 million to $250 million. As we look at capital allocation in 2024, our priorities remain to fund profitable growth of the Hardwire initiatives, which includes the capital expenditures mentioned previously, paying dividends, and continuing to execute discretionary share repurchases. And with that, we will open it up to Q&A.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Craig Kennison from Baird.

Craig Kennison, Analyst

I'm wondering if you can speak to the health of the dealer network. We've seen across our powersports and marine coverage that dealers have been struggling with too much inventory and thin margins, and then rates are moving against them as well, which hurts on the floor plan side. Nothing really unique to Harley-Davidson, but there is a lot of macro stress. I'm just wondering how you feel about the health of the dealer network and whether you're hearing anything different from your new Chief Commercial Officer, Luke Mansfield.

Jonathan Root, CFO

Craig, it's Jonathan. Thank you for your question. I'll start. From a Harley-Davidson perspective, there's enthusiasm for what's out there, and a recognition that customers are showing up, taking a look at our new Street Glide and Road Glide motorcycles, along with the other 2024 model years. Looking at the start to the year, I think we're pretty pleased with what that looks like. Dealer sentiment generally aligns with that. One concern that is worth being open about is that in an environment where interest rates have moved up a little bit, it certainly has an impact on dealers and dealer health. We pay a lot of attention to the position that our dealers are in regarding the health of the entire network. From their perspective, there are some concerns about what they see on the floor plan side. As you heard Jochen talk about in some of his introductory comments, we are supporting them by paying attention to that balance between what we're putting into the channel in retail over the course of 2024. We do also have selective interest rate subvention for customers on customer-facing programs only for a 2023 model year product, which helps drive dealer traffic, attracting more rate-sensitive customers and assisting them in moving through their inventory. Overall, we are attuned to their situation and are ensuring that we have programs that help support their health.

Craig Kennison, Analyst

Just as a quick follow-up, do you have any metrics to share on how fresh or current year inventory compares to prior periods?

Jonathan Root, CFO

Sure. As we look at the mix from a unit perspective, it varies across the globe. In North America, for example, about 35% of dealer inventory was comprised of 2023 model year or noncurrent model year bikes. In EMEA, it would look more like 70% with similar figures in Asia Pacific and Latin America. As we roll out the new model year, it hits our North American dealers before it reaches international dealers. This inventory variation reflects the cadence of new model year deliveries.

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

Yes, Craig, Jochen here. Just to add a bit more color, we expect model year '23 to be mostly cleared out by the end of the second quarter. The rate at which these older models are selling down in the U.S. is as planned. As Jonathan mentioned, with the new product coming in, the '23s are reducing nicely. By the end of the second quarter, we should be mostly out of '23s at the dealer level, though there might still be one or two left.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Joe Altobello from Raymond James.

Joseph Altobello, Analyst

Just wanted to follow up on Craig's question. Not so much on inventory but more retail. If I look at North America, the retail growth of 6% you had in the first quarter, could you give us a sense of how that might have broken down between the model year '23s versus the new model year '24s?

Jonathan Root, CFO

Sure. Thank you, Joe. As you look throughout the first quarter and consider the impact of the model year on sales trajectory, in January, we were heavily relying on 2023 models, with around 75% to 80% of sales coming from those models. By March, the percentage of sales related to the 2024 models increased significantly.

Joseph Altobello, Analyst

Very helpful. Just a follow-up on that. Maybe give us a sense of how trends progressed throughout the quarter, especially in April. I know January was tough, particularly due to weather, and the model year 24s hadn't launched yet. What are you seeing so far as the weather is getting warmer? Additionally, was flat Global Retail in Q1 in line with what you expected going in?

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

Jochen here. Yes, based on the fact that, as Jonathan and I previously mentioned, we only began seeing our international '24 model year entries starting in March, some regions got the '24s only at the end of that month. The start to the quarter in January was poor due to low new product availability. Overall, we saw a significant uptick in March. Looking into April, early signs are promising, and we expect that the new model year will positively impact sales in the international market as well. While the touring segment plays a significant role in the U.S., it may not hold the same weight in international markets, which is something we plan to monitor.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Fred Wightman from Wolfe Research.

Frederick Wightman, Analyst

I just wanted to ask another one about the difference between '23 versus '24. I know in the past, you guys have targeted sort of plus or minus 2% in terms of MSRP realization. Is what you're seeing for '24 in line with that so far?

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

That is correct. Yes.

Frederick Wightman, Analyst

Okay. I know that you made a reserve for dealer support at the end of last year, I believe it was $40 million. Is that still something you think is sufficient to clear through the rest of the '23s?

Jonathan Root, CFO

Yes. So Fred, this is Jonathan. As we take a look at financials relative to support for moving through those units at retail, the majority of the dollars were reserved in Q4. We took an amount that impacted our Q1 financials of about $18 million, reflecting on our price walks. Overall, we feel like the majority of the dollars have been reserved. And as that inventory sells through and moves down, the exposure decreases.

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

You should expect an impact in the first quarter, and the units are now decreasing. This reduction has been accounted for in our budget in anticipation.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Perry from Bank of America.

Alexander Perry, Analyst

I think maybe a follow-up on that last question, but could you just talk about how HDMC gross margins played out versus your expectations? As we move through the year, would you expect to start to see year-over-year expansion in HDMC gross margins? Or how much should we be expecting from pricing and incentives?

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

Yes. I'll let Jonathan explain the details, but overall, first quarter played out as we expected, and we held our margin guidance firm. We feel that the next quarters will also go as expected with improvements in gross profit margin along the line. There’s nothing that surprised us in the first quarter regarding gross margin performance, and we think we can achieve our targets set in terms of guidance. Jonathan?

Jonathan Root, CFO

Thanks, Jochen. Alex, just to provide a little more color on your question. In Q1, gross margin came in at 31.2%, which compares to 35.8% in the prior year, representing a decrease of about 450 basis points, driven by lower operating leverage and revenue factors I outlined. We envision modest cost inflation around 2%. Production volumes shipped in Q1 were produced in the preceding fourth quarters ahead of the new model year launch, leading to higher fixed costs per unit. However, that unfavorable impact was offset through productivity savings related to logistics. Overall, we expect our targets for the gross margin guidance to hold as we move through the year.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from James Hardiman from Citi.

James Hardiman, Analyst

I wanted to dig just a little deeper on the retail front and how the first quarter plays into the full year. Obviously, worldwide retail was flat for the first quarter. Your full-year guidance is based on 0 to 9. Given the new products in the first quarter, I assumed it would be the strongest of the year. Can you guide us through the quarterly cadence for retail, and whether macro conditions will play a role in your ability to meet these expectations?

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

Thanks, James. Predicting retail is always challenging. As mentioned earlier, the late arrival of the '24s in the international market should help improve sales in EMEA. The outlook is more uncertain for Asia, particularly with the weakness in China. However, we budgeted accordingly for that. The U.S. market has a tougher comp in the second quarter than later in the year. Therefore, while we feel confident, it’s important to note that the second quarter's performance is crucial. Hence, we have not altered our flat to 9% guidance at this time, but remain optimistic.

James Hardiman, Analyst

That's great color. A point of clarification: Is it safe to assume that, given the touring focus of the new products, the U.S. market is going to outperform the rest of the world significantly?

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

I wouldn't want to predict exactly how international markets will perform, but I would say that there is likely to be some outperformance in North America for the entire year, which seems reasonable to assume.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Tristan Thomas-Martin from BMO Capital Markets.

Tristan Thomas-Martin, Analyst

Two questions. One, weather seems to impact some dealers in some regions and others have had better weather. Can you call out any trends regarding normalized good weather retail? Additionally, can you provide insight on Flex financing? Have you seen any adoption, and do you have any targets for that?

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

Yes, good weather retail is a new term for me, but unfortunately, there's never all good weather retail! We've seen the downside of bad weather throughout the quarter; for instance, California has experienced poor weather conditions, which has hindered sales. However, where there has been good weather, we saw strong momentum. We hope that momentum continues as we enter the riding season. Overall, it hasn't been supportive, but we've observed that while weather was detrimental, good weather had positive effects. Regarding Flex financing, I'll let Jonathan address that.

Jonathan Root, CFO

Regarding HDFS Flex financing, we recognize that rolling out significant products requires retraining of the dealer body and the sales process. Our expectations for 2024 are modest regarding its impact, as we foresee it taking 12 to 24 months to fully embed it within the dealer network and train them on its benefits for consumers. We have seen a triple-digit number of dealers execute this product and sell through to consumers, indicating positive early engagement.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Noah Zatzkin from KeyBanc.

Noah Zatzkin, Analyst

Most of my questions have been asked, just one on HDFS. How do you feel about the health of the book? In terms of the annualized retail credit losses during the quarter, any reason to believe they wouldn't track normal seasonality from here?

Jonathan Root, CFO

As we assess the HDFS business, we recognize the uniqueness within financial services' seasonality. Overall, we feel it is following the expected curve from a loss perspective. Retail credit losses should reflect a standard seasonal trend going forward, with Q1 typically being the peak followed by a decline in Q2 and Q3, before rising again in Q4. We believe our loss provisions are well-calibrated given the current environment, so we feel confident heading into the future.

Operator, Operator

Next question comes from Megan Alexander from Morgan Stanley.

Megan Christine Alexander, Analyst

Similarly, most of my questions have been answered. So maybe just a housekeeping one. I know you don't guide EPS. You had some favorability below the line versus what I think Street was expecting. Can you help us with how to think about some of those lines like tax rate and interest income going forward?

Jonathan Root, CFO

Sure, Megan. Welcome! We're pleased with your interest in covering us. In Q1, we had some tax favorability. We expect the tax rate could trend less favorable going forward. Higher interest rates may yield more variability in that area, so it's essential to keep an eye on developments there.

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

And Megan, welcome from my side too. As for Jonathan, I promise next year we will provide EPS guidance.

Megan Christine Alexander, Analyst

To clarify, the impact to Q1 was neutral, and while the tax rate will move in one direction, the pension situation may yield more favorability than anticipated?

Jonathan Root, CFO

Yes, we expect some influence from that standpoint.

Operator, Operator

Last question will come from Jaime Katz from Morningstar.

Jaime Katz, Analyst

I'm hoping you guys can give us a little update on the change in the operating loss expectation from LiveWire. If Q1 was as expected, what are your expectations for the rest of the year?

Karim Donnez, CEO of LiveWire

With the relocation of the lab from California to Milwaukee, we will be centralizing all of the LiveWire operations in Wisconsin. This will deliver significant synergies and efficiencies across the business. We anticipate a reduction of about 10% of the headcount and 15% related to employee costs. All of this will support the revised operating loss, which would be improved by $10 million from previous estimates for the rest of the year.

Jochen Zeitz, CEO

The contract is in line with our planning and hopes. We are pleased that it passed on the first round, reflecting broad alignment with our union leadership and workforce. It's a five-year contract. Overall, we're pleased with the outcome, and this demonstrates that we are aligned with our union leadership and employees.

Operator, Operator

We have no further questions. This will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.