Earnings Call Transcript - LXU Q3 2023

Operator, Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the LSB Industries' Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note that this conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll turn the conference over to Fred Buonocore, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Buonocore, you may now begin.

Fred Buonocore, Vice President of Investor Relations

Good morning everyone. Joining me today are Mark Behrman, our Chief Executive Officer; and Cheryl Maguire, our Chief Financial Officer. Please note that today's call includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the company's current intent, expectations, and projections. They are not guarantees of future performance and a variety of factors could cause the actual results to differ materially. The call will include references to non-GAAP results; please see the press release in the Investors section of our website, lsbindustries.com for further information regarding forward-looking statements and reconciliations of non-GAAP results to GAAP results. As a reminder, we have a stockholder rights plan to protect certain tax attributes. Please see the Investors section of our website at lsbindustries.com for further important details. At this time, I'd like to go ahead and turn the call over to Mark.

Mark Behrman, CEO

Thank you, Fred. As noted on Page 4 of our presentation, our trailing 12-month total recordable injury rate at the end of the third quarter was 0.34. That is a reflection of the focused efforts of our entire team, and I'd like to thank them for continuing to embrace this important core value of our company. Turning to our financial results, we were disappointed with the results of the quarter versus our expectations heading into the quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA was lower compared to the third quarter of 2022. While this is largely due to a decline in market prices for nitrogen products relative to last year, the results were also impacted by lower-than-expected downstream production, primarily in nitric acid. That somewhat limited our ability to upgrade ammonia, impacting our margins for the quarter. Although we stumbled early in the quarter, our plants have run better since early September with the exception of one of our nitric acid plants at our prior facility that had an expander failure. We expect that plant to be back in service by the end of November after we receive and install the rebuilt expander. Cheryl will provide more color on the expected impact to our fourth quarter. We remain focused on our path to top quartile safety and reliability for all plants across our facilities. We also continued to progress on our growth initiatives. In early October, we announced a major milestone in the emergence of our company as a leader in the global energy transition. Our collaboration with INPEX, Air Liquide, and Vopak Moda, to develop a world-scale low carbon ammonia production and export facility on the Houston Ship Channel is potentially transformative to LSB's growth profile as demand for clean energy increases. We are proud to be partnering with a group of companies of this caliber. More on this later. We submitted a project to expand our El Dorado facility with estimated costs of approximately $400 million. The USDA initially proposed to fund 25% of estimated project costs with a maximum of $100 million for an individual project. We recently learned that our project has been selected to receive funding under the USDA Fertilizer Production Expansion Program. However, the total amount of the funds requested by all projects submitted to the USDA exceeded the total funds available under the program, and the USDA elected to fund each selected project at 80% of the requested amount. Therefore, assuming our project costs remain at approximately $400 million, we would receive a grant of approximately $80 million. We continue to evaluate and refine the scope, costs, and timing for this project and look forward to providing a more detailed update on our fourth quarter conference call. Please keep in mind that final approval for the funding is subject to the successful completion of an environmental assessment, which is underway and expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2024 and our acceptance of the terms and conditions of the grant documents, which we have not seen yet. On Page 5 of our presentation, we provide an overview of our end markets. Corn prices remain above multiyear averages, reflecting stable demand trends and ongoing dry conditions throughout many US corn-growing regions. We expect corn prices to remain at levels that would support strong fertilizer demand for the balance of 2023 and into 2024. We believe that lower farm input costs over the next several months and the goal of maximizing yields should incentivize farmers to optimize fertilizer application in the fourth quarter of 2023 and in the first half of 2024. Demand for our industrial business remains steady, supported by the resilient US economy. Nitric acid demand is stable as some global producers continue to shift production from international facilities to the US operations to capitalize on lower US input costs. Demand for ammonium nitrate in mining applications is strong as the expansion of infrastructure projects increases the demand for coring and aggregate production and the growth in electric vehicles and other applications is raising the demand for metals in the US. Now, I'll turn the call over to Cheryl to discuss our second quarter results and our outlook.

Cheryl Maguire, CFO

Thanks Mark and good morning. On Page 6, you'll see a summary of our third quarter financial results. We generated adjusted EBITDA of $9 million in the third quarter. As Mark mentioned, our results were impacted by lower-than-expected nitric acid production. Although sales volumes of nitric acid and derivative products were somewhat lower, we were able to meet the majority of our customer commitments by purchasing nitric acid or transporting products from our other facilities. The cost of purchasing and transporting nitric acid as compared to upgrading from ammonia, combined with higher maintenance and other costs, reduced our third quarter EBITDA by approximately $6 million. Page 7 bridges our $9 million of its third quarter adjusted EBITDA to our record $50 million EBITDA for the third quarter of 2022. The impact of weaker selling prices for our products relative to last year is the major factor in the year-over-year change in EBITDA. Page 8 provides a summary of our key balance sheet and cash flow metrics. We generated cash flow from operations of approximately $17 million and had capital expenditures of approximately $9 million, translating into more than $8 million free cash flow. Despite the pricing headwinds, year-to-date, we generated approximately $120 million in cash flow from operations with $41 million in capital expenditures, translating into nearly $80 million of free cash flow and a free cash flow conversion rate of over 70%. We expect capital expenditures for the fourth quarter to be approximately $15 million to $20 million with CapEx for the full year of approximately $60 million. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, nitrogen prices are firming up. Tampa ammonia currently sits at $625 per metric ton, up strongly from the low of $285 per metric ton in July. This pricing recovery has been due in part to lower inventories throughout the global nitrogen distribution channel relative to several months ago, along with recent production outages at some large international ammonia plants. NOLA UAN is currently $260 per ton, up from approximately $190 per ton in July. While we are glad to see pricing rebound, keep in mind, that our realized pricing in the fourth quarter will largely reflect prices for products sold forward during Q3 and in addition to some products sold at spot pricing. As a result, fourth quarter pricing is expected to be approximately 60% to 70% lower than a year ago. However, the recent rebound in pricing sets us up well for 2024. As Mark mentioned, one of our nitric acid plants at our prior facility will not be back in service until the end of November. As a result, we intend to meet customer commitments with products transported from our other facilities and that additional cost is expected to be a headwind on EBITDA of approximately $3 million in the fourth quarter. Lastly, as a reminder, we are approximately 90% locked in on gas cost for the fourth quarter at approximately $4 per MMBtu. And now, I'll turn it back over to Mark.

Mark Behrman, CEO

Thank you, Cheryl. Page 9 shows the downward trend in European and Asian natural gas prices that began in late 2022, resulting from a warm winter and heavy LNG imports. The drop in gas prices enabled European ammonia producers to restart idle plants in the first half of 2023, which increased the global nitrogen supply. Over the past three months, European gas prices have reversed course and increased significantly from summer low levels, widening the spread against US gas prices. We believe this disconnect could represent a possible source of ammonia price support heading into the winter months. On Page 10, you'll find a summary of the recently announced Houston Ship Channel Blue Ammonia project. We're currently in the pre-FEED phase of developing a world-scale ammonia plant that is expected to produce approximately 1.1 million metric tons of ammonia while capturing and permanently sequestering approximately 1.6 million metric tons of CO2. The plant is planned for construction on the Vopak Moda Houston Ship Shuttle Ammonia Terminal. The terminal site is equipped with storage and handling infrastructure and multiple deepwater berths. LSB in partnership with INPEX, Japan's largest E&P company, plans to build and operate an ammonia loop using low-carbon hydrogen produced by Air Liquide, who will also be handling the carbon capture and sequestration. Additionally, Air Liquide will be supplying our nitrogen needs. We selected the supplier of the technology license, basic engineering design, proprietary equipment, and catalyst, and we are in negotiations to finalize the related agreements. In addition to engineering and design activities, we are working to secure offtake customers for the anticipated ammonia production. We expect initial offtakers to be Japanese and South Korean power companies. We're very excited both in the caliber of the companies we are partnering with and the potential to transform LSB into one of the only predominantly low carbon ammonia producers in our industry. Page 11 provides an overview of our other low-carbon initiatives. We continue to be encouraged by our conversations with the EPA about our Class V permit application for the carbon capture and sequestration project at our El Dorado site. We remain comfortable with the timeline that calls for us to commence production of blue ammonia in the second half of 2025, and we are in discussions with customers about their interest in buying low-carbon products. With respect to our green ammonia project at our prior site, given the uncertainty around the 45 tax credits, combined with the project's current capital costs, this project is currently on hold. We remain excited about this project and our opportunity to be an early entrant into the production of green ammonia and we continue to have discussions with potential off-takers for green ammonia supply, but we need clarity and finalization of the 45G tax credits before we can make a decision to move forward. The US has the lowest cost natural gas globally, and this drives a considerable amount of its electricity generation capacity. However, US electricity prices have increased relative to natural gas prices, which works in favor of natural gas and products produced from it compared to alternatives. That then is a considerable headwind for the build-out of industry based on sourcing power from the grid, which includes green ammonia production. This development is also why we believe the path to blue ammonia is much easier than the path of green ammonia today, especially considering the lack of a green premium favoring production economics. Therefore, our current focus is on making sure we execute effectively on our El Dorado blue ammonia project and our Houston Ship Channel blue ammonia project as they both set us up well for the future. Despite facing the pricing challenges of 2023, we've made significant progress on several fronts that we expect to drive bottom-line growth and shareholder value. We continue to generate positive free cash flow, enabling us to maintain a strong balance sheet. We continue to make progress in advancing a number of core growth projects that I discussed earlier, and we expect to have greater clarity on these in the first quarter of 2024. We expanded our portfolio of low-carbon ammonia projects positioning us to be a meaningful contributor to the energy transition. I'm excited by the advancements that we are making and about our future. Before we open it up for questions, I'd like to mention that we will be participating in the Granite Research Management Conference series on November 14th and in the New York Stock Exchange Industrial Day on November 15th. We look forward to speaking with many of you at those events. That concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now be happy to take any questions. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

At this time, we'll be conducting a question-and-answer session. Thank you. And our first question is from the line of Josh Spector with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Chris Perrella, Analyst

Hi, good morning everyone. It's Chris Perrella on for Josh. As I look at the Houston Ship Channel projects, could you give some more granularity on what the potential cost would be for you as you work out this project and what the value capture would be?

Mark Behrman, CEO

Good morning. Based on our feasibility study, we estimate the project cost to be between $500 million and $750 million for the loop. Our plan is to purchase hydrogen sourced from natural gas and potentially electricity, with prices tied to that source, which will also be the basis for selling to our end customers. We aim to create a back-to-back pricing structure. We expect to utilize firm contracts, such as take-or-pay agreements, which will aid in project financing. Generally, project financing involves non-recourse debt, and we anticipate being able to secure about 60% to 70% of the total project cost in financing. If we conservatively estimate 60% on the $750 million cost, that gives us $450 million in project financing debt, leaving approximately $300 million needed in equity or cash. For simplicity, we haven't finalized the ownership structure, but if we assume LSB and INPEX each hold a 50% stake in the loop, that would translate to $150 million in cash contribution from LSB over three years.

Chris Perrella, Analyst

All right. So, $150 million over a three-year conservatively depending on what the final ownership structure of the loop would be?

Mark Behrman, CEO

Correct. From our perspective, the production is 1.2 metric tons. If we acquire TAF, that would amount to 600,000 tons of blue ammonia production for us on an annual basis.

Chris Perrella, Analyst

All right. And you would try to structure that as a take or pay and then the cost structure is indexed, so that would all kind of be INPEX through?

Mark Behrman, CEO

Yes. So, we would only move forward if we had take-or-pay contracts. And our thoughts now are we should be able to, again, derisk the volatility within the project by indexing both our hydrogen supply and our ammonia offtake with the same indexes.

Chris Perrella, Analyst

All right, that makes sense. I have a follow-up question. Given the low water levels in the Mississippi River, which is the season when we're trying to transport ammonia, have you noticed any implications in the market regarding the impact of these lower water levels as we prepare for the fall application season?

Mark Behrman, CEO

I believe that anyone planning to use the Lower Mississippi for transportation will encounter some challenges. Currently, we are operating at nearly half of the typical levels of vessels in transit. This poses significant difficulties for those who need to transport ammonia by barge.

Chris Perrella, Analyst

All right. And then, has that impacted the spot market and your spot sales in the fourth quarter here? Or is that going to more set up for a 2024 impact?

Mark Behrman, CEO

Yes. We don't tend to barge ammonia at all. So, we're not really impacted. And quite frankly, if it became a real issue and ammonia couldn't move from the south up to the Corn Belt, those who have ammonia capacity available for sale would benefit by it because it should then increase spot pricing.

Chris Perrella, Analyst

All right, thank you very much. I appreciate the time this morning.

Mark Behrman, CEO

Sure. Great to talk to you.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from the line of Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets. Pleased to see you with your question.

Harrison Reynolds, Analyst

Hey, good morning. It's Harrison Reynolds on for Andrew Wong. I was just wondering if you could provide some thoughts on the hedging position and maybe any comments on the strategy for next year?

Mark Behrman, CEO

Yeah, so going, I think we've talked about this on a couple of earlier calls, but I think late last year, we were able to, we had the ability to lock in gas at certainly less than $4, and I'd say between $3 and $4 for the full year of 2023. And given where gas prices were and where people, at least the futures were, we thought that was prudent. Clearly, it turned out to be not prudent as gas dropped down to almost $2 in MMBTU. So we have, as Cheryl said, gas hedged about 90% for the fourth quarter at around $4. So we're still suffering with that hedge for the fourth quarter. Going forward, you will not see us hedge at all. We will buy first of the month gas for most of our gas, leaving a little bit as daily gas due to just fluctuations within the plant. But we will basically be spot on first of the month starting in January.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from the line of Laurence Alexander with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Laurence Alexander, Analyst

Good morning. Two questions. One is on the off-take agreement. Can you just characterize when you think you may reasonably have off-take agreements for the blue ammonia in place? And secondly, can you give a little bit more detail on how you're thinking about the nitric acid trends into year-end or possibly into early next year? And then just lastly, on the marine fuel, can you just give an update on your thinking about what needs to fall into place for that to become material and when you think you'll start to see sort of a significant chunk of end-market demand for marine fuel applications?

Mark Behrman, CEO

Sure. I hope I remember the questions. Regarding the off-take for the new ammonia plant, we are currently in discussions with many off-takers, as are several of our competitors who are also building facilities. We have entered the pre-FEED phase, which will continue until the second quarter of 2024. After that, we will assess our cost situation and hope to move into the FEED phase, which is expected to take one year, concluding in the second quarter of 2025. During the FEED study, we anticipate negotiating take-or-pay contracts with off-takers from the federal government, Japan, Korea, and potentially Europe and the U.S. At the end of the FEED phase, we must decide whether to proceed, and we will not move forward without those take-or-pay contracts. I apologize, I forgot the second question.

Laurence Alexander, Analyst

Nitric acid.

Mark Behrman, CEO

Yes, as far as nitric acid, I mean, we've got really healthy markets here as we mentioned earlier and we see the demand continuing to be pretty strong nitric acid sales. We've been in that market for the last 30-plus years. And then I would say nitric acid obviously is upgraded to other products. On the non-fertilizer side would be ammonium nitrate, both solution and prill today. And we're seeing really strong trends there as well. So we hope that we believe that will continue.

Laurence Alexander, Analyst

And then just lastly on the marine fuel.

Mark Behrman, CEO

That's a great question. There is significant activity in developing new ammonia-powered engines, whether using 100% ammonia or a mix as a fuel source. Several engine manufacturers are working on this and are conducting tests, with expectations of having actual engines or vessels available for purchase by 2025. However, it's uncertain if that timeline will be met. Additionally, there will be extra costs associated with using blue ammonia or green ammonia. As I mentioned earlier, there's currently a lack of willingness to pay a premium for green ammonia, which could limit its uptake. There are some niche applications that are less price-sensitive and focused on zero carbon, but for the larger volumes of green ammonia intended for power generation or the marine industry, we will need to see a willingness to pay a premium before significant contracts materialize. Regarding blue ammonia, the situation will largely depend on how strict the regulations become in pushing ship owners to lower their CO2 emissions, which will also entail costs. This aspect has yet to unfold.

Laurence Alexander, Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is from the line of Charles Neivert with Piper Sandler. Please just share with your questions.

Charles Neivert, Analyst

Good morning. One question, on the ammonia pricing, obviously pricing today is a lot higher than what you guys had sold into 4Q. So I'm assuming there's not much, like you said, there's not much of an impact from 3Q to 4Q on ammonia price. But when you get into 1Q, will you be able to basically, you haven't sold anything forward there. So assuming price flat, we should see a fairly significant increase in ammonia price for you guys in 1Q?

Mark Behrman, CEO

Yes, Charles, that would be the expectation. I agree.

Charles Neivert, Analyst

Okay. And then in terms of the carbon capture deal. Let's assume everything goes forward, it's online when it's supposed to. I know it's sort of, I'm not sure what to call it, the sharing arrangement, whatever. Are they paying on a per ton basis or is there a flat fee that you guys are going to be getting each year under the assumption that the El Dorado plant is running at some operating level? Will it vary at all or is it just going to be, for lack of a better term, a locked-in number every year going forward?

Mark Behrman, CEO

Yes, so there's a minimum amount of CO2 that we have to sell them per year, but there is no ceiling on that. So the better that we can run that plant, the higher the fee that we would get since it's on a per ton basis.

Charles Neivert, Analyst

Okay. And then, I guess looking at that, is there anything in the contract, let's say they think it goes swimmingly well, these subsidies continue, is there a buyout where you can basically buy any equipment, pay them out, become the player yourself instead of just the share?

Mark Behrman, CEO

There is the ability to negotiate something, but no, there is no price for a buyout.

Charles Neivert, Analyst

Okay. And last question is, as of now, forgetting whether, you know, you can get the product up and down the Mississippi, what do conditions look like for fall ammonia application? Are we getting, well, we just started to see some cold weather starting to come in. When do you guys expect ammonia application or, you know, does it look, or is there snow already and that's becoming a problem?

Mark Behrman, CEO

No, I think we're going to have a good fall ammonia run. I think we're just starting to hear rumblings of it. I wouldn't suggest that it's taken off or really started. So I think the weather, I mean, weather around the country looks like we had a cold spell, but now we're warming up again. And here in Oklahoma City, I know we've warmed up significantly. So we still expect a lot of tons to move. And we're kind of anxiously awaiting that.

Charles Neivert, Analyst

I assume that the preference is by end of year or into early year, once the application is over, the tanks are empty and you can start refilling for the spring. I assume that is the objective at this point.

Mark Behrman, CEO

Yes. Thanks very much.

Rob McGuire, Analyst

Good morning, Mark. Has the UAW strike had an impact on your nitric acid volumes? And if so, can you kind of give us an idea if that's going to continue into the fourth quarter?

Mark Behrman, CEO

We haven't seen any impact in nitric acid volumes. Some of the UAW strikes have been settled, so they've been somewhat short-lived. So, I don't see that as being an issue.

Rob McGuire, Analyst

Great. Shifting over to your green ammonia offtake agreements, do you think there are a lot of projects out there, both in the U.S. and globally? Do you expect many of those projects to be put on hold due to a lack of offtake agreements? In other words, do you see a larger shift towards blue ammonia instead of green ammonia in terms of global demand for low carbon ammonia going forward? Thank you.

Mark Behrman, CEO

Yes, so, you know, the U.S. government has put out really good incentives in their IRA, but unfortunately what they haven't done is they haven't given details. So, if you're basing a project today on receiving the full $3 per kilogram hydrogen credit, the 45V credit, I know we're concerned because they've now kicked the can down the road several times, and now I hear possibly in January, but really early in 2024, is when they'll finalize that. I think the problem is you just don't know what you really need to do to qualify to get that. And so I think it makes moving forward on projects really difficult until there's a lot of clarity there. On the blue ammonia side, or blue hydrogen, I think while it's not been finalized, it's clearly a lot clearer because tax credits for carbon capture have been in place for many years, just at lower levels. So at least there's some framework there and understanding of it. So I can't comment on other people's projects and what they're thinking. I would note, and I think I said this earlier, if we can't get take-or-pay offtake, then we won't move forward on a project, but we believe that we can. So we're encouraged based on our conversations with potential off-takers that we will have a really good opportunity to secure take-or-pay contracts.

Rob McGuire, Analyst

Thank you. And then, shifting topics again, would you briefly bring us up to date on the margin enhancement projects that you're working on? You discussed them at the analyst meeting earlier this year. Just give us an idea of what they are and just kind of estimate of when they'll be producing and then kind of aggregate amount of people to be best from all together of the type of the topic of generate.

Mark Behrman, CEO

Sure. Cheryl, you want to go through that?

Cheryl Maguire, CFO

Yes, that's no problem. Hey, Rob, so we have the urea expansion project at Pryor to upgrade ammonia to an additional 75,000 tons of UAN. We expect that to go into full operation during the turnaround at Pryor next year. So that's one of the key projects from a margin enhancement perspective. So that's clearly, as you know, the upgraded margin from ammonia to UAN, which is impactful. We also have additional nitric acid storage that we're putting in at El Dorado, also planned for the first half of next year. So that's an additional 5,000 tons of storage. It allows us to keep those asset plants running at full rate all the time. And that allows us to maximize upgraded product at El Dorado. So that's another important one. And we're also working on a coating agent for our H-Jan product. It helps with durability, as H-Jan doesn't always store well in the heat in the summer months. It also helps with potential export opportunities that we may have on that product, also on track for the first quarter or second quarter of 2024. So I think those are the three that are the furthest along at this point. Probably 7 million to 10 million of annual EBITDA from a run rate perspective. Then we've got some more projects in the pipeline, but nothing to speak of publicly at this point.

Rob McGuire, Analyst

Thanks, Cheryl. I appreciate that update. Just one last question on the New Star Pipeline turnaround that took place during the quarter. Can you give us an idea of what that cost in terms of tonnage for LSB? Also maybe give us an idea relative to what that tonnage was last year when they did their turnaround?

Cheryl Maguire, CFO

So, for the most part, I think we were able to make up a lot of the tons in the back half of the quarter. I think the New Start Pipeline came up a little bit earlier than planned. So I don't think, Rob, that there was a material impact to the third quarter for the ammonia tons. If you look at our volumes, we did move quite a bit of volume in the third quarter.

Rob McGuire, Analyst

Thank you so much. That's it for me.

Cheryl Maguire, CFO

Thank you.

Operator, Operator

At this time, we've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'll hand the floor back to management for closing remarks.

Mark Behrman, CEO

I want to thank you for participating in our earnings call and for your interest in LSB Industries. And if you have any other questions, please feel free to follow up with either Fred, Cheryl, or myself. Thanks so much.

Operator, Operator

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.