Earnings Call Transcript - METC Q4 2023

Operator, Operator

Welcome to the Ramaco Resources Fourth Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeremy Sussman, Chief Financial Officer of Ramaco Resources. Please go ahead, sir.

Jeremy Sussman, CFO

Thank you. On behalf of Ramaco Resources, I'd like to welcome all of you to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. With me this morning is Randy Atkins, our Chairman and CEO; Chris Blanchard, our Chief Operating Officer; and Jason Fannin, our Chief Commercial Officer. Before we start, I'd like to share our normal cautionary statement. Certain items discussed on today's call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements represent Ramaco's expectations concerning future events. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside of Ramaco's control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and except as required by law, Ramaco does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I'd like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss today in our press release, which can be viewed on our website, ramacoresources.com. Lastly, I'd encourage everyone on this call to go on to our website and download today's investor presentation. With that said, let me introduce our Chairman and CEO, Randy Atkins.

Randy Atkins, CEO

Thanks, Jeremy. Good morning to everyone. As always, thanks both for your interest and for joining the call. We have a lot of positive developments to unpack this morning since we spoke last November. As I discussed then, over the past few years, we have tried to differentiate ourselves by aggressively but prudently growing our production and sales profile. In 2021 through last year, we doubled our production. Our goals over the next few years are to again double our current 3.5 million ton level in met coal. And next, to hopefully add an intriguing and very valuable new line of business with rare earth. Looking back over the last few years, we invested almost $0.25 billion in capital for increased production and acquisition. That strategic investment in growth paid off for us in the second half of '23, allowing us to meet consensus for the last two quarters. I will let Jeremy provide the financial metrics where Q4 was the record quarter for us this year, printing $182 million in annual EBITDA and also having record free cash flow, all despite some muted pricing in the overall market. As we look down the road at our quality slate, we are aiming to essentially double our low-vol and mid-vol levels to about 50% of overall production, with another 30% as high-vol A. Today, we are about 40% high-vol A and 30% low-vol and mid-vol. In part, that decision is based on our organic reserve quality mix, but it's also based on what we perceive may be some future crowding in the high-vol A space. Several peers are slated to bring on as much as 6 million tons of new production in that blend over the 2024 to 2026 period. On the other hand, we see low-vol production essentially flat with a fair amount of anticipated depletion from existing low-vol mines. Moving forward, we expect spreads may start widening between premium low-vol and lower-tier high-vol coals and we hope to be able to capture that margin. Turning to our fourth quarter performance, we managed to do well despite seeing not much strength in pricing over the back half of the year. This year's North American domestic settlements for 2024 were down year-over-year about $40 a ton from 2023. While U.S. met indices rose in the fourth quarter, they ended '23 more than 10% below Q1 levels. Our fourth quarter financially was fundamentally due to a sales increase, shipping at a 4 million-ton per annum run rate during the whole second half of '23, which was above about 33% compared to our 3 million-ton per rate in the first half. We were also helped by the completion of the 1 million-ton increase in our processing capacity at our Elk Creek complex. Moving to this year's sales and marketing, we took a balanced approach to our 2024 domestic sales exposure and committed only about 1.5 million tons of coal to North American customers. We thought the offered pricing terms were muted and probably at the bottom of the cycle when tenders were being negotiated last fall. Despite that, our average mixed fixed domestic sales price of $167 per ton was the highest 2024 pricing figure among our publicly traded peers. By saving back the level of our North American business, we pivoted to an increased export book, which will now be over 2/3 of this year's sales. At the start of December, we had 2 million tons committed sales for 2024. In the past two months, that number has almost doubled to 3.9 million tons, which means we are now basically 100% sold out at the low end of our original 2024 production guidance. Fortunately, most of those sales have been in the works for some time, so we were able to move those tons without sacrificing pricing. We now hope to accelerate that sales growth as we move further into 2024. As a result of that material increase in committed sales, we recently raised our 2024 sales and production guidance. Depending upon continued market conditions, we hope to end the year with a sales jump of as much as 40% from 2023 levels. Looking at the profile of our sales to date, interestingly, we have now begun to move significant tons into Asian markets. Two years ago, we didn't really have any Asian business; now we will end up the year with more than 30% of our sales going to Asian customers. All done, about 30% of our overall 2024 book will be priced off Australian indexes, about 40% off Atlantic indexes, and about 30% will be fixed price domestic. Jason will speak on the relativities of our pricing and also give most of our color on markets, but I'll add a few observations. We now see European markets as somewhat spring-loaded. It has been pushed down so hard over the past 1.5 years that we feel when it rebounds and many of the mills reopen, we may see somewhat of a pop in supply dislocations in the Atlantic markets. We have historically done well in Europe and indeed were decent-sized sellers even into Ukraine. When that whole situation eventually resolves itself, there could be an interesting turn. In Asia, as I said, we were nowhere in this market two years ago; we are now a major supplier to Indonesia and other non-China markets. Despite the gloom around China, we see the other Asian markets as relatively healthy. We look forward to making further inroads in the region, particularly with our ability to leverage our increasing low-vol production slate. Switching to operations, I want to compliment our operating team first for a great safety record last year. I also want to note the great work on developing the two deep mine sections at our low-vol Berwind mine. Since September, Berwind has produced an annualized run rate of 600,000 tons. We are now planning to begin the third section in the next few months and hope to be at a 1 million-ton run rate by year-end. Cash mine costs at Berwind have currently been under $90 per ton from both deep sections. If this trend continues, and as we ultimately take the mine to four sections, we expect Berwind to be among the highest-margin and lowest-cost production low-vol mine complexes in the country. Moving on to another low-vol project, last month, we purchased a reasonably priced existing coal prep plant for $3 million, which will be relocated to our Maven complex. We will spend another $8 million this year to move, relocate, and upgrade this plant. For cost comparison, had we built a new plant of comparable capacity, the price was estimated at roughly $40 million. This plant should be operational by the fourth quarter of 2024. It will meaningfully reduce both the current overall $40 per ton trucking cost as well as our cash mine costs. The plant will have an ultimate annualized clean coal capacity of 1.3 million tons, far more than our 350,000-ton current surface and highwall production. We will have the opportunity to add a significant amount more deep tons to that complex in the years ahead as the market may dictate. Chris will also make some comments on Maven in his remarks. Looking at our balance sheet, last year, we were able to reduce the amount of debt on our books, and we started 2024 with about $50 million of term and equipment debt. Assuming current conditions continue, we look to retire all of that debt this year. As I said earlier, we are also rapidly growing. Looking ahead, we are planning today for the notional increase in the amount of both sales and inventory we envision over the coming years. Accordingly, we just executed a mandate with KeyBank on behalf of our banking syndicate to both increase and extend the size and term of our existing revolver. This facility will then have a base borrowing amount of $200 million with an additional $75 million accordion feature expansion as well as a new five-year term. This is an increase from our existing $125 million facility, and we look to finalize all this in Q2. Finally, with respect to our Brook mine rare earth project, we are aggressively working to advance the commercialization. We expect to receive the updated independent target exploration report from Weir International within two weeks. When we do, we will publish the report and I will provide an accompanying shareholder letter to explain the findings as well as the project's critical path and direction. We will also expect to host a separate analyst call to discuss these conclusions and respond to any investor questions. I would be remiss not to note that on the back of our solid met coal execution this year, and the announcement of our rare earth discovery, we were delighted that our shareholders enjoyed some very impressive results over the past year. In 2023, our market cap increased by over $500 million. Today, including the value of our METCB shares, we have a combined market cap of roughly $1 billion. This compares to our market value of just over $100 million a few short years ago. Indeed, to start the year, we enjoyed the highest total shareholder return, which includes share price and dividends of any company in the coal and mining space. We had a one-year return of roughly 200% and over 1,000% return for the three-year period dating back to 2020. We are deeply appreciative of our investors' support from both long-time and new shareholders, and we are working hard to continue to reward that support. In summary, this year promises some very positive results for Ramaco. And with that, I will turn the floor over to the rest of our team to discuss finances, operations and markets. So, Jeremy, please start us off with a rundown on financial metrics.

Jeremy Sussman, CFO

Thank you, Randy. As you noted, financially, we enjoyed a strong fourth quarter in 2023, which was easily our strongest quarter of the year. While U.S. metallurgical coal indices did rise in the fourth quarter compared to the prior two quarters, the indices were still more than 10% below Q1 levels. Our strong Q4 was frankly due to both solid execution of our growth strategy and tight cost control. Specifically, in each of Q3 and Q4, we shipped a 4 million-ton per annum run rate compared to a 3 million-ton per annum run rate in the first half. In Q4, our margins expanded more than 50% versus Q3. Realized pricing was up 10% to $173 per ton on stronger indices. More importantly, cash cost per ton fell $7 sequentially and on both a stronger absolute and relative contribution from our main Berwind mine, as Randy noted. In terms of financial metrics, adjusted EBITDA was $58 million in Q4 and up almost 30% from Q3. Fourth quarter net income of $30 million was up more than 50% sequentially. Now, I want to make one point on net income and earnings per share. First, for comparative purposes, had we calculated EPS as we had in the past, I would note that Q4 fully diluted EPS would have been $0.68. That said, since we issued the tracking stock in mid-2023, GAAP accounting rules have complicated our EPS calculations. 2024 will be our first full year of having a dual share class structure. I would note that the Class B dividend amount each quarter will affect the Class A EPS calculation alone. Adjusted EBITDA, net income, and all other key items will not be affected. Based on our current outlook, I would expect quarterly 2024 Class A EPS to come in anywhere from 70% to 90% of how EPS would be calculated on a normal single fair class estimate. For guidance, the higher net income is, the greater the percentage of EPS assigned to the Class A shares will likely be. As a reminder, the Class A stock has just under 44 million shares outstanding. We anticipate first quarter shipments of 800,000 to 950,000 tons, which is well below the run rate we anticipate for the full year. However, we anticipate building inventory in Q1 ahead of some larger term deals into Asia, which will begin in Q2 and also ahead of the Great Lakes, which open in late March. With that said, we anticipate both production and shipments to increase throughout the year with a meaningful uptick in the second half. Specifically, this second half increase will come from the addition of the more than 400,000-ton per annum Ram 3 surface and highwall mine at Elk Creek and the 300,000-ton per annum third section at the Berwind mine. Mine costs are also projected to decline each quarter throughout the year as volumes increase sequentially. For the full year, we are reiterating all key prior 2024 operational guidance, which you can find in our table. I'll note that at the midpoint of guidance, we anticipate both production and sales up roughly 30% versus 2023 and a slight decline in cash costs and a roughly 30% decline in CapEx. Moving to the balance sheet, in Q4, we repaid the final $10 million of debt related to the 2022 Ramaco Coal acquisition. We ended 2023 with just $48 million of term debt outstanding, excluding the revolver, and $42 million of cash. Lastly, we finished 2023 with record year-end liquidity of $91 million compared to $49 million at year-end 2022. As both Randy mentioned and provided specifics, we have just this week reached a preliminary agreement with KeyBank to increase and extend the terms of our revolver. We expect this to be finalized in Q2. And I would now like to turn the call over to our Chief Operating Officer, Chris Blanchard.

Chris Blanchard, COO

Thank you, Jeremy, and thank you to everyone who joined us this morning. I want to first start by reiterating how pleased and proud we are of the safety performance and environmental stewardship that we achieved in the field in 2023. We had our lowest incident rate in our history last year, and we are focused on improving and enhancing that performance as we move forward. Looking back on 2023 operationally, it was a tale of two halves. The first half was constrained at both of our big complexes. We had delays in the preparation plant upgrade at Elk Creek and Berwind was completing its development mining to reach the thick Pocahontas seam following the ignition event of 2022. The second half, however, saw us increase preparation capacity at Elk Creek and begin monetizing our inventory, which had built up. We also reached the long-talked-about main reserve at the Berwind mine, staffed the mine and quickly reached and exceeded projected production levels. We also started our surface mine at Maven, which has run better than expected. The sales and marketing team has done an incredible job selling our inventory. Now as we turn into 2024, our operations will ramp up to meet these new elevated sales levels and work to double the size of our production over the next several years, as Randy has described. That work is underway at all three of our main complexes now. At Elk Creek, after a couple of years with flat production, we've moved forward with the Ram number 3 project. This will bring on 300,000 to 400,000 annualized additional production from a second surface mine and its accompanying highwall miner operation. This mine had been previously planned in 2022 and 2023, but due to market conditions, the plant capacities and availabilities, it was postponed. Already in 2024, we have broken ground and now expect our first surface tons in July, with the Ram number 3 highwall miner following with production beginning in October. The Ram 3 cost structure should match or beat the existing surface mine at Elk Creek, increasing our overall volumes and lowering the average Elk Creek cash costs. At Berwind, as we discussed, both super sections are now in normal operation and since Q3 have been hitting targeted production. Our number one section has reached the area where a series of air shafts and a new portal and elevator will be built. Once completed, this ventilation increase will allow the start-up of our number three section. With three sections operating later this year, we expect to be producing at nearly a 1 million clean ton per year rate from the Berwind mine itself. With the investments Ramaco has made over the past several years at Berwind in the preparation plant, belt lines from the mine to the plant, and of course, in the purchase of coal reserves, Berwind is finally poised to be among the lowest cost and largest premium low-vol complexes in the United States for many years. Finally, at Maven, we are taking steps to grow that operation into a full stand-alone complex with the purchase and the relocation of the preparation plant to the Maven site. Work has begun on demolition of the existing plant and the first deliveries of components have begun this week. We anticipate the rebuild of the plant to begin in the summer and for it to be commissioned late this year. The size of the plant, as purchased, will allow us to wash all current surface and highwall miner coal at Maven as well as any initial underground sections that are contemplated in the future. As Maven grows, the modular plant design will allow us to quickly add upgrade circuits to the plant. Depending on market conditions, we believe the Maven complex, if fully approved, could eventually produce between 1.2 million to 1.5 million annual clean tons. However, in the near term, getting the initial preparation plant in operation will drive down our transportation costs and save us nearly $40 per clean ton on the raw coal bill that we currently bear. Having the clean coal at Maven also opens this premium coal for shipment on both of the railroads as well as the river-served customers. It is an exciting time for Ramaco operations. In the next couple of years, we will be eventful as we grow out our existing complexes and continue to look for other opportunistic ways to enhance shareholder value. As we grow, however, our primary focus will remain on safety performance, environmental stewardship, and maintaining strict cost control at all of our existing and new operations. Now for a more detailed discussion of the markets and the sales book, I would like to turn the call over to our Chief Commercial Officer, Jason Fannin.

Jason Fannin, CCO

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I will share what we are seeing in the markets and our current and forward sales outlook. Global coking coal markets remain well supported, mainly due to lower supply because of continued underinvestment in the coal space. Economic conditions, steel market fundamentals, and demand outlook continue to vary widely around the globe. Integrated mills and coke batteries in the U.S. continue to run strong on the back of sustained steel demand and pricing levels. Brazil continues to struggle with low-cost steel imports and weak coke production, while economic conditions in Europe, along with high carbon taxes, are keeping demand from rebounding there. Although many blast furnaces have returned to production to start the year, they have low utilization rates. One bright spot for U.S. producers during much of 2023 and continuing into 2024 has been the Pacific market ex-China, where Ramaco is now becoming a player. We saw tremendous year-over-year demand growth in India. New coke batteries are ramping up in Indonesia, and traditional customers in South Korea and Japan are expanding their intake of U.S. coking coal as they diversify and de-risk their supply portfolio. Since our last call, we have effectively doubled our committed and sold position for 2024. Since December, as Randy said, we added 1.8 million tons of new sales, essentially all to seaborne markets at index-linked pricing. This now brings our overall sold position to about 3.9 million tons, basically 100% of our original lower end sale guidance. As Randy also mentioned, during much of 2023, Ramaco focused its marketing efforts on the growing Asian markets, placing multiple test cargoes of all grades of coking coal, low-vol, mid-vol, and high-vol into several different end users. The culmination of those efforts has resulted in a number of long-term offtake agreements across all ranks of our product portfolio, with shipments beginning in earnest during Q2. At the same time, we have maintained and grown our business in North America and the Atlantic Basin with specific long-term partners who place incremental premium pricing value on Ramaco's broad spectrum of low-ash, low-sulfur coking coals. Turning to the current pricing environment, index values have softened since the start of the year. China is trading water even though coal production has been cut back, and India has a temporarily subdued market as elections there have slowed additional new infrastructure project announcements. As of March 7, the U.S. East Coast index values were $257 per ton for low-vol, $249 per ton for high-vol A, and $208 per ton for high-vol B, while Australian premium low-vol stood at $304 per ton. This dislocation between U.S. and Australian pricing has persisted since late September, with U.S. coking coals continuing to be fundamentally undervalued. During 2022, U.S. low-vol averaged 96% relativity to Australian pricing and U.S. high-vol averaged 99% relativity. Those relativities have dropped substantially, and as of yesterday, stood at 85% and 82%, respectively. The U.S. low-vol market is currently much tighter than the indices suggest. As Randy commented, we see demand continuing to outpace supply in the U.S. low-vol and mid-vol segment, where Ramaco is placing its bets and continues to focus on growing production. We see much of the near-term growth in U.S. coking coal supply in the high-vol space. Fortunately, we already placed much of the high-vol production into long-term offtake agreements prior to much of the additional new high-vol production coming to market. Regarding our sales pricing performance versus the markets, our low- and mid-vol coals sold into traditional markets have been sold at near parity to the U.S. low-vol index. Our high-vol sales to traditional markets are at a modest discount to U.S. indices. Our sales in the Asian markets are priced against a basket of Australian indices along with typical freight differentials. Looking ahead, we hope to place a substantial amount of additional tonnage for the year in line with or perhaps exceeding our guidance.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Today's first question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Nick Chile, Analyst

This is Nick Chile asking a question on behalf of Lucas. Congrats on the solid results here. My first question was around volume cadence. First quarter guidance was 800,000 to 950,000 tons. And I was wondering what would take you to the high or low end of that range? And then you mentioned a 5 million-ton run rate over the second half. Should we think about that as an even split or more weighted to Q4?

Jeremy Sussman, CFO

Nick, it's Jeremy here. Good to hear from you. So, I mean, sitting here at the beginning of March, there's always a lot of variability with rails, and as we export more, you're going to end up on larger and larger vessels. So frankly, the difference between the low end and the high end this quarter is mostly on the logistics side, I would say. So obviously, we hope to be at the high end, but I think history has told us that while the rails have certainly improved, there's still some variability, hence the range. In terms of the cadence, I'd say volume will ramp up each quarter. So if you're thinking about a sales cadence, second quarter will probably be around 1 million tons. I'd say third quarter and fourth quarter are where you're going to see the big step up, with fourth quarter a little bit higher than the third quarter, around $1.25 million to $1.3 million in Q4. The big delta is just as Chris described in his prepared remarks when we bring the third section on at Berwind and the Ram 3 mines at Elk Creek. That's almost 3/4 million tons on an annualized basis. Chris, do you want to touch on that?

Chris Blanchard, COO

Yes. So, the cadence is, obviously, Ram surface mine, which is the smaller part of that complex, will come in at the very end of the second quarter, beginning of the third quarter, and then we'll layer in the Highwall Miner at Elk Creek in the fourth quarter. That will be the bulk of the production, and that's why you get the step change on the Elk Creek side. At Berwind on the low-vol, it's all based around the timing of our third section, which is ventilation dependent. We'd love to start that earlier, but the reality is it won't start up until the third quarter. As we build the workforce and get it to normalized production, you'll see that step change in the fourth quarter, which has us exiting the year at the 5 million-ton run rate.

Nick Chile, Analyst

Super helpful. My next question was just on quality mix. You provided a nice outlook on a full year basis. I think you mentioned the Great Lakes picking up here in March. So how should we think about quality mix here in Q1? And maybe how things would progress into the second quarter as well?

Jason Fannin, CCO

Yes. Nick, this is Jason. As far as Q1 goes, I think our quality mix will look somewhat similar to Q4. Certainly, as Chris mentioned, a lot of the production ramp is coming in the back half of this year, which will skew more towards low-vol. As you mentioned, Ram 3 is part of that— a smaller part of that uptick in the back half. Our Q1 production mix and quality mix will essentially mirror Q4.

Jeremy Sussman, CFO

Nick, one thing I'd point to is Slide 7, where we give the breakdown. Randy touched upon it in his prepared remarks. The big change will be on the low-vol side. Right now, we're at a 40% low-vol mid-vol kind of a mix. Ultimately, that will take us above 50%. So, our mix will look a little different when we exit the year as Berwind ramps and we bring on more tons at Maven as well.

Nick Chile, Analyst

Got it. If I could just sneak one more on the market. I think you touched on the European market and cited lower utilization. Are you expecting those operations to ramp up over the course of the year? Are you seeing any green shoots yet? Thanks for any additional comments.

Jason Fannin, CCO

Yes. So, Nick, this is Jason again. As Randy mentioned, it seems like that market is kind of spring-loaded for a rebound. I think there are several triggers that are going to be necessary to cause that. They've been so depressed now for the last couple of years. Specifically since COVID and then the energy impacts after the Ukraine war began, we have grown business with certain customers there for the premium products. Those customers have a strong outlook for this year as it goes forward. Some of those customers have indeed restarted blast furnaces. I think some capacity holdbacks on those furnaces are an attempt to keep steel pricing at a reasonable level for them. A big trigger for a rebound would be some resolution in Ukraine. If you recall, prior to the war, they were taking upwards of 4 million tons a year from the U.S. That could be a significant jump in demand if and when that happens. There are positive aspects there, but it's just a matter of timing.

Randy Atkins, CEO

I'd also say, Nick, on a macro level, Europe has been sort of behind the U.S. in terms of its perception of when interest rates may start to decline. I do think if you see the U.S. decline at some point this year, Europe will probably follow not too much further after that. I think that would be another catalyst for seeing more economic activity over there.

Operator, Operator

Our next question today comes from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Nathan Martin, Analyst

Maybe sticking with the slide deck real quick. I think it's Slide 6. You guys talk about medium-term production of approximately 7 million-plus tons. Could you provide a little more color around that target, maybe how much CapEx that could possibly take, or at least how many years you foresee it taking to kind of get to that level? I think, Randy, you said it's basically double what you guys did in 2023.

Randy Atkins, CEO

Yes. In terms of the cadence, we look at that as probably a three-year ramp. We bumped Elk Creek up to about 3.5 million tons. We have Berwind probably at a 1.5 million to 2 million ton level. We haven't greenlighted Maven yet, but we could bump that to about 1.5 million tons, give or take. That adds up to a little bit more than 7 million tons, but we've got room for some wiggle. I would say our main CapEx for this would probably be $25 million to $26 million. We will get to where we are right now in 2024 moving to a sort of $4.5 million plus million threshold. We are bumping CapEx only about $13 million from what we had originally planned in the sort of low $60s, high $50 million range. As we look further out, we will give you an update on the numbers, but I would say our cadence would ramp for about two years at a doubling of that rate. Of course, that also includes maintenance CapEx, so our growth CapEx is going to be much less than that. But when we get to laying all that out with any new guidance on specific projects, we will be happy to provide all the CapEx numbers around it, growth CapEx specifically.

Nathan Martin, Analyst

Got it. Appreciate it, Randy. Maybe shifting over to the Brook mine and the potential rare earth element side of the business. You mentioned the expectation to get the Weir report, I think, over the next 2 weeks or so. What kind of information do you expect from that? Separately, do you guys still anticipate receiving the report from SRK, I think you said previously by the end of the first half? And I believe that should give us the first glimpse into the possible economics of the project as well.

Randy Atkins, CEO

Yes, great question. To break it down, in the Weir report, we are going to be providing a tremendous amount of additional samples that have been tested since our first report. That's what's caused the time lag. We've also gone back and done interesting new testing metrics that will be focused not only on tonnage, but more importantly, on concentrations. I don't want to preempt that since it will be out soon enough. In terms of SRK, they were brought in to help us determine the economics. That cadence will be, first, to determine the chemical, metallurgical, and mineralogical character of the deposit before we can ascertain the best processing techniques. That's the process we are in now. Once we come out with the report, we will disclose everything we're looking at. We just brought on a person to run our rare earth effort, who has a great deal of experience in this area. We look forward to hosting an analyst call probably within the next month to explain all findings from the Weir report and provide a critical path of how we're proceeding with commercialization efforts.

Nathan Martin, Analyst

Maybe just one more on CapEx and as it relates to what we were just talking about. If these reports come out with positive results, is there a possibility that CapEx moves up in 2024? Or are we still a bit far off before we start spending more material amounts on that project?

Randy Atkins, CEO

We have spent modest amounts, around $3 million to $4 million on our entire rare earth project to date. So, you can calculate what kind of return that has generated us from a market value standpoint. So, our CapEx related to the mine won't begin to kick in until 2025. This is premised on developing the appropriate processing technique that we will try to pursue. There is a lot of testing needed before we conclude that. Once we come to that point, we will give ample guidance on what that looks like. But I think not much CapEx in 2024. I would expect more in the outer years.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Atkins and the management team for any closing remarks.

Randy Atkins, CEO

Great. Well, as always, we appreciate everybody being on the line this morning. We look forward to catching up here in a few months. Thanks for your interest. Thank you very much.

Operator, Operator

Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.