Earnings Call Transcript
Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL)
Earnings Call Transcript - MRVL Q3 2022
Operator, Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Marvell Technologies Fiscal Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Ashish Saran, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Ashish Saran, VP of Investor Relations
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Marvell’s third quarter fiscal year 2022 earnings call. Joining me today are Matt Murphy, Marvell's President and CEO; and Jean Hu, our CFO. I would like to remind everyone that certain comments made today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to significant risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from management’s current expectations. Please review the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our earnings press release, which we filed with the SEC today and posted on our website, as well as our most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings. We do not intend to update our forward-looking statements. During our call today, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation between our GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures is available in the Investor Relations section of our website. We closed the acquisition of Innovium on October 5, 2021. Therefore, the results we reported today for the third quarter of fiscal 2022 include the results from the Innovium business for 25 days of the fiscal quarter. Revenue from the acquired Innovium business is reported entirely within our data center end market. Please note that the guidance we have provided for the third quarter of fiscal 2022 on August 26, 2021, has not included any expectations or results from the acquired Innovium. The financial outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022 we provided today includes expected results from the acquired Innovium business for the fourth quarter. With that, I'll turn the call over to Matt for his comments on our performance. Matt?
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Thanks, Ashish, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with a summary of our third quarter GAAP results. Revenue was $1.21 billion, which was above the high end of our guidance and represents another record achievement for Marvell. GAAP Gross margin was 48.5%, GAAP operating loss was $33 million, and loss per diluted share was $0.08. Revenue grew 13% sequentially and 61% year-over-year, an acceleration from the first half of this fiscal year. We saw great momentum in all five of our end markets, with revenue growing both sequentially and year-on-year. Our data center, carrier, enterprise networking, and automotive industrial end markets all achieved record revenue and performed above guidance. Excellent operational and financial execution resulted in revenue 6% above the midpoint of our guidance. Our operations team continues to do a great job in sourcing incremental supply, and we are starting to see the fruits of their labor. Supply was better than expected in the third quarter, and we expect continued improvements as we move into the fourth quarter and next year. The additional capacity has better positioned us to catch up to the growth in demand, which so far has outpaced increases in supply. Moving on to our non-GAAP results for the quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin was a record 65.1%, and we delivered $418 million in non-GAAP operating income. Non-GAAP operating margin was also a record at 34.5%. Higher revenue, coupled with stronger gross margin drove non-GAAP earnings per share to $0.43, 13% above the midpoint of guidance growing 72% year-over-year, which represents phenomenal growth in earnings. These are tremendous accomplishments, and I am very proud of the outstanding execution by our entire Marvell team in driving such strong results. Let me now move on to discussing our five end markets, starting with data center. In our data center end market, revenue for the third quarter was $500 million, growing 15% sequentially and 109% year-over-year, exceeding our guidance. Both the standalone Marvell business and the acquired Inphi business delivered strong growth, driven by robust demand from cloud customers. I would note that our on-premise data center business also grew sequentially and year-over-year. Data center is our most diverse end market with multiple product lines contributing to sequential revenue growth. These include 200-gig and 400-gig PAM4 electro-optics, data center interconnect ZR modules, SSD and HDD controllers, cloud-optimized SoCs, and Ethernet switches. In addition to strong end-market demand, the majority of these product lines are also benefiting from the start of new product ramps, which we expect will continue to drive sustained growth. As an example, in our SSD business, we benefited from a strong ramp of DIY controllers directly to a Tier 1 cloud customer. Remember, you heard at Investor Day, Marvell has been winning a large number of incremental cloud optimized silicon designs, and these are now in development. In addition, the design win funnel and level of activity on cloud optimized silicon engagements continues to accelerate, and we have recently won another socket with our storage accelerator. At our Investor Day, we discussed this new $500 million market for our storage business and cloud storage accelerators and disclosed our first design win with the cloud customer. Now, a key storage partner, KIOXIA, recently announced production availability of their NVMe over Fabric SSDs, which will also use our storage accelerators. These SSDs are for Ethernet Bunch of Flash systems designed for applications such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and high-performance computing. The KIOXIA SSDs connect to the network fabric natively using Ethernet by integrating a Marvell storage accelerator, which converts NVMe into 25 gigabit Ethernet. We are excited to see this new opportunity take shape with multiple customers starting to adopt our storage accelerators. Turning now to Innovium. During the quarter, we closed the acquisition, adding their cloud optimized switches to our broad data center portfolio. We're pleased that the company’s co-founder and CTO, Puneet Agarwal, and the R&D team have become a part of Marvell. We are confident that our combined switch businesses are now well positioned to be a strong provider of Ethernet switches to data centers, and we see an incredible opportunity ahead for Marvell in this high-growth market. We expect the acquisition of Innovium will result in $150 million in incremental revenue next fiscal year as we ramp switches into a large Tier 1 cloud customer they had won prior to the acquisition. We are also looking forward to supporting additional cloud customers such as LinkedIn, who are deploying Innovium’s Teralynx-based switches in production across multiple data centers with the SONiC network OS. SONiC is an open network operating system which provides cloud customers with more choice and interoperability as well as the ability to scale. We recently announced our commitment to supporting SONiC across both our Prestera and Teralynx products. Moving on to our expectations for revenue from our data center end market in our fourth fiscal quarter. Similar to the third quarter, we are expecting another strong performance led by cloud customers across a broad range of products. We expect data center revenue to more than double from a year ago, and we project sequential growth in the double digits on a percentage basis in the fourth quarter. We are pleased with the strength we are seeing from the cloud end market, which we expect will remain a strong driver of sustained growth for Marvell. Looking out further in time, we are also excited by the immense potential for another phase of growth as large-scale virtual environments such as Facebook is doing with their metaverse start to gain traction. For simplicity, while I will use the metaverse as a general descriptor for this discussion, we expect many different implementations of virtual environments enabled by a broad set of companies and ecosystems. Regardless of the form these environments take, the data sets will be exponentially larger compared to the current Internet, which is largely two-dimensional and latency will need to be extremely low to realistically simulate a real-world environment. As a result, we expect the metaverse will significantly accelerate a number of key trends which are already occurring in the cloud today, including the need to store huge amounts of data in a secure environment connected by high-speed, electro-optic links to custom compute engines. This next level of massive scaling makes the metaverse an even stronger candidate for cloud optimized silicon solutions that Marvell is currently enabling. This meshes perfectly with the core competencies we have already developed across compute, storage, security, networking, high-speed electro-optics, and customization, which are driving our current success. And these are equally applicable to the variety of virtual environments that we will develop over time. The metaverse also has the potential to be a killer app for 5G, another area of strength for Marvell. Multiple cloud customers have already engaged with us as they start designing the architecture of their next generation of data infrastructure to enable a significantly richer set of virtual applications and experiences. Turning now to our carrier infrastructure end market. Revenue for the third quarter was $215 million, growing 9% sequentially and 28% year-over-year, exceeding our guidance. Growth was driven by our 5G products ramping at multiple customers. We are also able to improve supply for our wired business to enable sequential growth. Looking at the fourth quarter, we expect a strong ramp in our 5G business of approximately 30% sequentially. And as a result, we project our combined carrier infrastructure revenue across our wireless and wired end sequentially in the low-teens on a percentage basis, while year-on-year growth is expected to accelerate to over 40%. It's exciting to see the step-up in our 5G business, and we expect significant additional growth over the next several years as 5G adoption continues to grow around the globe, combined with Marvell content gains from designs we have won but not yet begun to ramp. Moving on to our enterprise networking end market. Revenue for the third quarter was $247 million, growing 11% sequentially and 56% year-over-year, with the majority of the growth coming from standalone Marvell products. This performance was significantly better than our expectations as our operations team did an excellent job securing additional supply to better address the increase in demand for our products. From a product perspective, in the third quarter, the continuation of strong year-on-year growth was driven primarily by Marvell's Ethernet networking portfolio. We have been gaining share and benefiting from the very deliberate investments we have made in our enterprise Ethernet switch platform as well as the combined Marvell and Quantify portfolio. In addition, our content has been growing driven by an increase in multi-gig Ethernet adoption. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter for our enterprise networking end market, we project revenue sequentially to be up in the low to mid-single digits on a percentage basis, and year-over-year growth is expected to remain very strong at approximately 60%. We expect this strong growth to be driven by continued share gains from Marvell products combined with ongoing recovery in the enterprise networking end market. Turning to our automotive and industrial end market, which is served primarily by stand-alone Marvell businesses. Revenue for the third quarter was $67 million, growing 16% sequentially and 114% year-over-year, driven by ongoing ramps in our auto business. I'm pleased to report that our team has now driven our auto business to over $140 million annualized revenue run rate in the third quarter, ahead of our prior expectations. We are benefiting from a faster pace of adoption of our Ethernet solutions by auto OEMs, who are prioritizing the production of their latest models, which tend to have higher semiconductor content. We are confident that we are well on our way to driving a multi-hundred million dollar revenue stream from our auto Ethernet business over the next few years. Looking beyond connectivity, our next multibillion-dollar market opportunity for Marvell is in automotive compute. A future of technology in cars is all about electrification and intelligence with embedded security and onboard storage in a fully networked environment. Similar to the rise of optimized silicon and cloud, automotive OEMs are realizing that to differentiate their products and deliver the most value to their customers, they need unique technology and IP to be embedded in compute silicon optimized to their specific platforms. You don't need to look too far to see evidence for the sea change. Recent industry commentary, including from Ford and Volkswagen, talks about their focus on developing internal silicon design expertise, desire to customize off-the-shelf compute, and their intentions to design and develop their own chips for autonomous vehicles. Similar to our successful strategy of partnering with hyperscale customers for cloud-optimized silicon, we are confident that our co-development business model and rich IP portfolio are equally attractive to automotive OEMs. In this model, the design is done in true partnership with the customer focusing on the portions proprietary to their platform and Marvell bringing our own unique compute, security, Ethernet networking, and storage silicon IP to the table. The end solution is a semi-custom design, which represents the best of both worlds, allowing our customers to achieve their ambitions and retain control of their roadmap. In doing so, they can not only preserve their differentiation with a faster time to market, but it will also enable a lower level of investment, thanks to Marvell. We see compute becoming an increasingly important part of our growing automotive business, adding to our very successful Ethernet connectivity solutions. Reflecting this broadening of our portfolio, I'm very pleased to introduce Marvell's new brand for Automotive Solutions, Brightlane, which includes our gigabit and multi-gigabit Ethernet switches and PHYs for connectivity and our OCTEON processors for compute. At our Investor Day, we had discussed our first major auto compute win based on our OCTEON Brightlane platform. The semi-custom design is now in development. We are seeing a significant increase in compute-related activity with additional auto OEMs, both traditional and new market entrants. And I look forward to updating you on our progress in this exciting new long-term growth pillar for Marvell. Turning to the outlook for the fourth fiscal quarter for our auto and industrial end market. We expect strong revenue growth to continue. We project sequential growth in the double digits on a percentage basis and year-over-year growth to remain above 100%. Moving on to our consumer end market. Revenue for the third quarter was $183 million, growing 10% sequentially and 20% year-over-year. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect revenue to grow sequentially in the low single digits on a percentage basis and year-on-year growth in the double digits on a percentage basis. We are benefiting from strong growth driven by our SSD controllers that we have targeted at differentiated sticky, long-lived and high ROI applications such as game consoles. In closing, we delivered very strong results for our third quarter, and we expect this momentum to continue in our fourth quarter and next year. Both the acquired Inphi business and the standalone Marvell business are firing on all cylinders. In the third quarter, the stand-alone Marvell business delivered strong year-over-year revenue growth close to 30%. The Inphi business performed even better. The midpoint of our guidance for revenue in the fourth quarter implies a similar approximately 30% year-over-year growth rate for each of these businesses. We are proud of these results and our outlook for growth in the fourth quarter, which is well above the high end of our long-term revenue growth target of a 15% to 20% CAGR. Securing capacity for growth remains the highest priority for our operations team even as the supply expansion comes with an increase in input costs. As we have done throughout the supply crunch, we are working with our customers to adjust prices to offset the impact of these cost increases, which led us jointly benefit from sustained growth. As we look at next fiscal year, we will continue to drive supply improvements, and we expect demand to remain above the high-end of our long-term target mode. As a result, we anticipate a sustained period of strong revenue growth for Marvell. From a base of approximately $4.4 billion in fiscal 2022, we expect the combined Marvell and Inphi business to continue growing in fiscal 2023 at the 30% year-on-year rate we are currently achieving. On top of this, we expect an additional $150 million of revenue in fiscal 2023, resulting from the Innovium acquisition. We are also excited about the setup for growth beyond fiscal 2023. At our Investor Day, you heard us describe our participation in end markets collectively expected to grow at a 13% CAGR. In addition, we have a number of growth drivers, which we expect will result in our revenue growing faster than our end markets. We discussed our expectations for a step-up in incremental revenue from the start of new design win ramps. We updated our expectations for revenue from cloud optimized silicon design wins to ramp to $400 million in fiscal 2024, a year earlier than prior projections. These wins are further projected to double to $800 million in revenue in fiscal 2025. In 5G, starting in fiscal 2024, we expect to benefit from an increase in content at Nokia, when we start ramping our 5-nanometer OCTEON embedded processors into their 5G base station. Over the same time frame, our auto Ethernet connectivity business is expected to make significant progress towards driving revenue over $500 million annually, and our electro-optics PAM, Coherent and ZR portfolio is also projected to remain on a high-growth trajectory. In summary, while we have been delivering strong results for multiple quarters, we are confident that we are still in the early stages of a sustained high-growth period for Marvell, and we are looking forward to reaping the benefits of the investments we have made in our business over the last few years. With that, I'll turn the call over to Jean for more detail on our recent results and outlook.
Jean Hu, CFO
Thanks, Matt, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with a review of our financial results for the third quarter and then provide our current outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. Revenue in the third quarter was $1.211 billion, exceeding the high end of our guidance range, growing 13% sequentially and 61% year-over-year. Please note the acquisition of Innovium added approximately $5 million in revenue, which was not contemplated in our original guidance for the third quarter. Revenue growth was robust from all five of our end markets. Data center remained our largest end market, driving 41% of consolidated revenue. Enterprise networking was the next largest with 20% of total revenue, followed by carrier infrastructure at 18%, consumer at 15%, and auto industrial at 6%. GAAP gross margin was 48.5%, which includes the remaining position of Inphi inventory step-up costs. Non-GAAP gross margin was 65.1% of revenue, exceeding the high end of our guidance range primarily due to better than expected end market revenue mix. In particular, revenue from our enterprise networking end market was significantly better than our guidance. GAAP operating expenses were $621 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $371 million, which included 25 days of Innovium operating expenses of approximately $5 million. Our GAAP operating loss was $33 million. Non-GAAP operating profit was $480 million, or 34.5% of revenue, an all-time record demonstrating the strong leverage in our operating model, while we continue to invest for long-term revenue growth. For the third quarter, GAAP loss per diluted share was $0.08. Non-GAAP income per diluted share was $0.43, $0.02 above the high end of our guidance. Earnings per share grew 26% sequentially and 72% year-over-year, driven by strong top line revenue momentum and execution on both gross and operating margins. Now, turning to our balance sheet and cash flow. During the quarter, cash flow from operations was $265 million. We returned $50 million to shareholders through cash dividends. We paid down $151 million of our long-term debt during the third quarter. As of the end of the third fiscal quarter, our long-term debt was $4.5 billion. Our gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio was three times and net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.7 times. Inventory at the end of the third quarter was $629 million. $71 million of this inventory balance is from Innovium, including $42 million in step-up cost due to purchase price accounting. We anticipate amortizing the step-up cost over the next two quarters. We have also increased our work in process inventory to support the revenue growth we are forecasting. In summary, the Marvell team executed exceptionally well, delivering accelerated top line growth and earnings expansion much faster than revenue growth. Now turning to our guidance for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2022. Please note this guidance includes the expected results from the Innovium business for the full quarter. We are forecasting revenue to be in the range of $1.32 billion, plus or minus 3%. We expect our GAAP gross margin in the range of 47.9% to 49.8%. We project our non-GAAP gross margin will be approximately 65%. We project our GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $630 million to $640 million. We anticipate our non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $390 million to $395 million, which include approximately $15 million of OpEx for the acquired Innovium business for the full quarter. This outlook also reflects the increase in investment to support the accelerated revenue growth we are driving across the business, including the launch of multiple new projects tied to the design wins we have discussed in prior quarters. In addition, we're including a higher amount of bonus given our strong operating performance well above our plan. As a reminder, looking ahead to the first fiscal quarter of 2023, due to the typical seasonality in payroll taxes, our OpEx tends to increase from Q4 of fiscal year by high single digits sequentially on a percentage basis. We expect a non-GAAP tax rate of 5%. We expect our basic weighted average shares outstanding will be 844 million and our diluted weighted average shares outstanding will be 861 million. As a result, we anticipate GAAP earnings per share in the range of a loss of $0.03 per share on the lower end to an income of $0.04 per diluted share on the high end. We expect non-GAAP income per diluted share in the range of $0.48, plus or minus $0.03. Now, let me close with some directional comments on our investment plan for the next fiscal year. As Matt mentioned earlier, we see continued strong demand across our end markets and improvement in supply to drive our top line revenue growth above 30% in fiscal 2023. To support both near-term and long-term revenue growth, we are planning to increase our investment levels appropriately, annualizing the midpoint of our OpEx guidance for Q4 for fiscal 2022, which includes both Inphi and Innovium for the full period implies a $1.57 billion baseline OpEx run rate. From this baseline, we are planning for OpEx to grow in the high single digits on a percentage basis in fiscal 2023, substantially lower than our top line revenue growth. We increased our spending to execute on significant design wins and continue to drive process technology leadership as well as aggressively pursue a growing funnel of new design win opportunities within the large $30 billion we discussed at our Investor Day. We are confident we'll continue to drive strong and sustainable long-term revenue growth and deliver earnings expansion much faster than revenue growth in fiscal 2023 and beyond. Operator, please open the line and announce Q&A instructions. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
And our first question will come from Blayne Curtis with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Blayne Curtis, Analyst
Good afternoon, and great results. Maybe just a question. I know you're going to get a bunch on supply, but obviously, that seems like the biggest swing factor into the upside. So talk about that and maybe also just address the enterprise segment? Because I think that was your biggest beat and you were thinking it would be down. So just refresh my memory in terms of why you thought it would be down and maybe just a perspective on just supply in general. You said that you're signing long-term agreements. At what point do you think you'll kind of get out from under this supply constraint?
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Thank you, Blayne. I believe the two questions you asked are connected, as the strength we observed in the enterprise sector was largely due to a significant improvement in supply. Regarding supply, we're quite satisfied with the advancements we've made. Like many companies, we faced challenges in meeting this unprecedented demand, but I am proud of how well our team has responded. We have implemented considerable transformations in our operations, including establishing long-term supply agreements. Equally important has been the strategic collaboration we've developed with our supply chain partners over the past nine months. They fully understand our potential, and their confidence in us and in Marvell has been beneficial. Strong execution by the team has played a crucial role as well. Overall, the continued robust demand is noteworthy, and it has persisted until now. While there has been substantial progress in addressing supply issues, we still have a significant backlog that remains unfulfilled. This creates a dual challenge: we are getting more supply, but demand remains very high, and we expect this trend to carry into next year. Nonetheless, we appreciate the improvements seen in Q3 and the positive outlook for Q4, reflecting the excellent work by our team. Our enterprise segment had a strong Q2, and the team has effectively ramped up supply to meet the strong demand. Looking ahead to Q4, we see enterprise growth continuing. Impressively, we project a 60% year-over-year growth in our Enterprise segment, predominantly driven by organic plans, which we expect to sustain next year. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Ross Seymore, Analyst
Thanks for the opportunity to ask a question. Matt, I wanted to discuss the guidance you provided for fiscal 2023. It was more detailed than I anticipated, and it appears you are very confident about revenue growth. Can you elaborate on the projected $5.6 billion in revenue? If we exclude Innovium, since we all have a good understanding of that situation, what are the main drivers of this year-over-year growth? Has there been anything that has boosted your confidence in achieving this, such as improvements in supply or additional insights into the design wins you've hinted at in previous calls?
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Sure. I think there's a few factors, Ross. The first is we did lay out our strategic narrative at the Investor Day. So that was one setup we tried to give investors relative to where the business was heading. Second is when we look into next year where we certainly see the demand strength continuing really across all segments. So that gives us a lot of confidence. That's data center, that's 5G, that's automotive. It's also enterprise and consumer. Those are backed up with purchase orders that are in place today. So, the backlog we have is very strong. And I think the other point is we really want – and I really wanted to contextualize the growth that we're seeing in Q3 and Q4 on an organic basis with Marvell growing 30%, Inphi growing 30-ish and that effectively continuing so that the investment community understood that this wasn't a short-term bump but rather part of a longer period of sustained growth which we believe actually has legs even beyond next year. And then the simple math, and I'll let Jean chime in. But basically what we said is just take the pro forma $4.4 billion-ish we'll do this year, if you take our Q4 guide. We believe we'll grow that 30% next year. And then on top of that, you would add Innovium. So I think your number would be actually a little bit higher when we look out to next year.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from Vivek Arya with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Vivek Arya, Analyst
Thanks for taking my question and congratulations on the very strong growth and the execution. I actually wanted to talk about the OpEx side. If I look in the last year, you’ve basically added almost $500 million in sales and OpEx has just grown about $100 million. And when I look at the guidance you are providing for next year also, that also suggests very strong leverage in the model and EBIT margins that can get into the high 30s. So, I'm curious, Matt or Jean, what's helping drive the leverage? How are you adding almost $1.5 billion plus in sales while keeping OpEx at these levels? How sustainable is this trajectory of expanding margins?
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Sure. Maybe I'll start, Jean, and do you want to – actually, why don't you start, Jean? Go ahead.
Jean Hu, CFO
Yes, I'll start. So if you look at our investment level, as we discussed during the Investor Day, we have a strong leverage because not only our central engineering team really leverage across all the different end markets, we also focused on the cloud optimized silicon solutions and work with the customers. So we do partner with the customers to get the customer funding, too. Overall, if you look at the R&D investment, we have been doing plus the NRE we get from customer actually is significantly larger. So I would say, our team significantly leveraged the investment across all different advanced process node and also across different end markets. That helps us tremendously. And if you look at the OpEx increase, of course, we acquired both Inphi and Innovium. Year-over-year, it actually is going to get to almost $1.7 billion. That's very much within the target model we are focusing on as our long-term business model. So it's the leverage that helps us tremendously.
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Yes, I think that was well said by Jean.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from Timothy Arcuri with UBS. Please go ahead.
Timothy Arcuri, Analyst
Thanks. Jean, inventory was up about $100 million, if I exclude Innovium. And you did talk a lot about this being WIP and the fact that you're taking WIP up given how much you think you can grow. But I guess the question is really on your visibility on revenue. And I guess I'm surprised that you were able to build that much inventory and maybe you can talk about whether delinquencies got any better. Thank you.
Jean Hu, CFO
Yes, we have significantly improved our supply, but demand continues to exceed supply, so we haven't made progress on our delinquency issues. As Matt mentioned earlier, fiscal 2023 shows strong demand and a considerable revenue increase across all our markets due to our unique product cycles, with over 30% year-over-year growth. Looking at Q1, while it is typically a slower quarter seasonally, we anticipate a sequential revenue increase approaching mid-single digits based on a very strong outlook for Q4. The inventory build mainly consists of work-in-process inventory to support revenue growth not just for Q1, but also to enable quarter-over-quarter increases in the following year, aligning with our goal of over 30% top-line revenue growth.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
John Pitzer, Analyst
Yes. Good afternoon, guys. Congratulations and thanks for letting me ask the question. Matt, one of the key strengths of your businesses is that the design cycles for a lot of your products are fairly long and fairly visible. And I would argue that revenue growth that you have confidence in next year, notwithstanding some of the supply constraints, was based upon design wins that you've had for a while. I'm just kind of curious, can you talk about the design pipeline and the momentum in the design pipeline today and how you expect it to progress through next year? And my guess is it's going to continue to be strong, if not accelerate. And if that's the case, not wanting to get too far in front of you, the long-term growth rate you put out in the Analyst Day, why wouldn't that just move up structurally higher? I know it's less than a quarter 4 since you did that. But if you could give us some sense of how you're feeling around the design pipeline?
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Yes. John, it's a great question. I think the way I would answer it is, you are correct in that the design cycles our products are quite long, actually, but they also come with very long visibility as well. So the revenue that we've got for next year, those designs are done. I mean, they've been done for in some cases for a year, as an example, like in automotive. So then you got to go back a couple of years and say, well, what is the design win funnel and pipeline and closure rate look like, say, two years ago or three years ago? And then what is that translating to? What I would comment on is our design win funnel and close rate in the last three years has gone up dramatically each year. And this current year on track for our sales team is on track for a beyond record design win capture. So the design wins are growing each year. That is a great leading indicator for us, for sure. And I think to your other question about the long term, look, we did our Analyst Day, we put on a long-term model. There will be ups and downs if you take a long-term view. But I think what we're saying is, at least in the short term, i.e., Q3, Q4, also FY 2023 and we believe even beyond, we can run above that model. We're very bullish on our business.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from Tore Svanberg with Stifel. Please go ahead.
Tore Svanberg, Analyst
Yes, thank you. Let me echo congratulations. I had a question on 5G. You're expecting 30% sequential growth in the January quarter. Could you just elaborate a little bit on what's driving that? I do know you have some new customer design wins that are ramping and content growth, but especially as we think of it from a sort of regional deployment perspective. Any more color you could share with us would be great. Thank you.
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Sure, Tore. To your point, yeah, we had, last quarter, said and signaled that we anticipated a step-up from Q3 to Q4 in our 5G business. Now we've quantified it, which we see growing 30% sequential. So great step-up, great validation of the thesis in that business and what's exciting, I guess, is it's primarily driven by new product ramps at some of the key customers, particularly in the baseband area and then also geographies ex-China deploying 5G. So – and we see that growing pretty strongly throughout FY 2023, our 5G business as we're highly diversified, both by customer, by geographies that those customers serve, and then by the content which we have, most of which is still in front of us. If you think about one of our biggest opportunities is really the transport processor area where we've won an additional customer we outlined a few years ago. That's going to ramp in 2023 calendar. So there's a nice layering effect Tore, but I would say, it's certainly nice to see a one-quarter step-up, but we certainly see growth from here. You've got US, you've got Europe, and there's a lot of optimism around India as well next year. So I think the geographic mix is in our favor as well.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Harlan Sur, Analyst
Good afternoon and congratulations on the strong results and execution. I would assume that 16-nanometer is sort of the workhorse volume technology now. The team's 7-nanometer products are ramping strongly, where you've got 200 and 400-gig Polaris and Porrima PAM4 products. You've got your Canopus 7-nanometer DSP for data center interconnect ramping. And then on top of that, your 5-nanometer pipeline is quite strong. What I think you guys said at the Analyst Day, you have 20 tape-ups over the next 18 months. And I think the team has already been sampling a number of different 5-nanometer products. So when does the team expect 5-nanometer revenues to become a material part of the revenue mix? Is it calendar year 2022? Is it more likely 2023? And are the first meaningful 5-nanometer revenues going to be more cloud-focused or carrier-focused?
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Sure, Harlan. I’d like to address your question regarding our process technology roadmap and where Marvell currently stands. You're correct that some of your examples are relevant to certain optical components. We utilize a variety of process technologies, some of which have come from various acquisitions. You’re on the right track. The focus is really on the 5-nanometer technology. In fact, for the traditional Marvell business, we effectively bypassed 7-nanometer technology. We made a significant investment in 5-nanometer, which will be driven primarily by carrier applications in 5G. This is where we will see the initial production ramp. Our OCTEON products are set to begin production, so we expect to generate revenue from 5-nanometer in calendar year 2022. However, the major ramp-up will occur more in 2023 and 2024. You will also see several DPU products and a wide range of other 5-nanometer products entering the market around 2022 and 2023. The entire company roadmap has effectively focused on this 5-nanometer platform, spanning storage, networking, and even our Inphi business, which will also transition to this technology for its benefits. As Vivek asked earlier, we gain significant leverage from this technology platform, which we outlined a couple of years ago at our 2020 Investor Day. This strategy is yielding positive results in terms of managing operational expenses efficiently and enabling numerous designs in 5-nanometer that will have a long lifespan. Initially, we will see a focus on 5G and then move to carriers, followed by other markets such as enterprise, automotive, and optical. There is significant potential in this direction.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from C.J. Muse with Evercore. Please go ahead.
C.J. Muse, Analyst
Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess, I wanted to clarify on the supply side and then ask a question on auto. So on the supply side, as you indicated in terms of roughly $5.9-plus billion for fiscal 2023, are you saying that you secured that and then some? Or can you give us some clarity there? And then your commentary on the auto compute side very intriguing. I would love to hear more, Matt, in terms of how we should be thinking about the timing of sort of initial design wins and when that should start to materially hit the model? Thank you.
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Sure. Yes. On the first question on supply, yes, we feel good about that range we gave for next year. Certainly, there's still a lot of moving pieces, and we've got a lot of execution in front of us. This is not a lay-up. Things have not eased up. It's not like all of a sudden supply has loosened. And what I would say is that the growth next year really just comprehends kind of keeping up with demand. There's still going to be some unsupported backlog probably that we can't quite get to. So we're working on that as a potential as well. But we certainly feel good about the 30% growth and that growth rate continuing, which is really where we were in Q3. That's where we're going to be in Q4. And what we're saying is we anticipate we can keep growing our revenues at that rate when you look out to next year. But obviously, we're going to try to do even better. On the automotive compute side, yes, it's pretty new. It's a little bit like some of our other markets where we gave some initial indications as we were gaining traction and then the story evolves from there. But yes, I'd say we're well underway on our first design, and the level of activity going on with the automotive OEMs around this topic is kind of off the charts at this point. I think there's such a – it's almost like a – there's a renaissance C.J., I think, in what I would call the infotainment age when automotive OEMs really embrace these consumer technologies and all of a sudden, you've got things like USB chargers in your car. You've got state-of-the-art audio. You got touchscreens. This consumer tech went in. That had a big benefit to semiconductor companies. What we've been saying for a while, and it's coming true now, is that the data-centric semiconductor products and IPs will be the next wave of growth. We're seeing that in our networking products now, but it's very much moving to a compute-centric discussion. And there's a whole bunch of ways to skin that cat, but our model will be unique in that we're approaching it very similarly C.J. to what we do in the cloud market, which is coming in with a broad IP portfolio, partnership-oriented model, build what somebody wants, let them put their stamp on it if they want to and really customize and optimize for their particular system and use case and bring all the goodness of all the Marvell IPs with it. So it's pretty interesting discussions. There'll be more to come there, but we think this is going to be a very large long-term opportunity for the company.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from Mark Lipacis with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Mark Lipacis, Analyst
Thanks for taking my question. Matt, if I think about the kind of portfolio of assets that you kind of pulled together here, I think about you have interconnect capabilities with Inphi, processing capabilities with Cavium, networking capabilities from Innovium and native Marvell. And I'm wondering to what extent as your customers are coming to you for semi-custom solutions, are they asking you to deliver solutions to them that are a mix of two or more of those different capabilities? And so that would be the question for your customers as well as how you're thinking about delivering complete optimized computing solutions on the merchant side. And maybe as part of that, could you just – as you have embraced the semi-custom model, can you share with us your view, like what does Marvell look like pick the time, 3, 5, 10 years down the line? What is a merchant model versus a semi-custom model? How do your revenues split along those dimensions? Thank you.
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Sure. Yes, Mark, I think you highlighted it well. There's a pretty incredible set of assets inside the company now that I would argue is very unique in terms of all of these being under one roof. I would actually add there's even more. I think you gave three great examples. I would say our security IP, storage, and I/O. And you're absolutely right, when we engage in our various business models, whether it's a full custom design or, call it, a semi-custom partnership design with a mix of IP from the customer and ours, every one of those IPs gets put on the table. And we gave an example actually in the prepared remarks about the storage accelerator opportunity, where it's not just a storage product, it's got CPUs, it's got security and it's got some pretty advanced network interfaces, especially when you talk about things like going from NVMe to Ethernet as an example. So very unique, and it's part of our value prop and the fact also that we can do this under one roof. And despite the fact that a lot of these IPs we have or these people we have come from other companies, it's a one Marvell culture in our company. And so when we go and engage, this doesn't look like 12 business units or, oh, there's the Cavium team. I don't know if somebody has to go work with them and there's the Innovium team. There's one integrated go-to-market strategy and technology platform, and it's very powerful. And I think it's going to become even more and more relevant. And I would say, we don't really think about our business, Mark, at this point between pure merchant, pure semi-custom, pure custom. I mean there's all these different business models in-between. And even our merchant products, what we're finding, like let me give you an example in storage. We end up doing a fair degree, for example, on our high-end data center class SSD controllers now. We're doing a fair amount of customization, particularly on the firmware and the software, as an example, for each individual customer that makes it very, very sticky. And occasionally, we'll spend a metal option off and we'll give them a certain feature that they want or need. But yes, in a way, a lot of our business already today is effectively customized in the standpoint that we've really optimized it for the application. And that could be in the hardware or it could be in the software and the firmware. So I think that those lines are fairly blurred now is what I would say, Mark, and I think it's good. I think it enables us to stay flexible, and it's enabling us to win new accounts.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from Srini Pajjuri with SMBC Nikko Securities. Please go ahead.
Srini Pajjuri, Analyst
Thank you. Matt, a couple of clarifications actually. First, on the pricing, I think you mentioned that you've implemented some pricing actions to offset the higher input costs. I'm just curious where we are in that process and how broadly you're implementing those and to what extent that might be helping the top line as we go into next year. And then the second part of the question is obviously a very strong outlook for next year. I'm just curious, given your breadth of products and end markets that you participate in, I'm guessing there's probably not going to be much seasonality, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on first half versus second half in terms of how you view the top line playing out next year? Thank you.
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Sure. How about this? I'll take the first one, and then I'll let Jean talk about the second one. Yes. So on the first one, so let me take you back on pricing. It was about this time a year ago when I got a call from our ops team that said we have some serious issues because we're getting a number of price cost increases from a whole bunch of our different suppliers overseas and what are we going to do? And this is like what. And I spent the month of December negotiating higher cost increases by my supply chain a year ago. And we then worked and managed to pass those through earlier than the year. Each time we've secured additional capacities, Srini, we end up in a lot of cases, having to bear a higher input cost. That's been part of the drill as supply has come available. And so I would say that this has been a gradual process. It's gone on throughout the year. It continues to go on. I think there continues to be inflation in the supply chain. And our philosophy has been to be real fair about that, be very partner-oriented, not take advantage of it. And so while it has flowed through the top line throughout the year, the biggest benefit of the growth we're seeing, it's just the raw demand, the design wins, the value that we're capturing. And certainly, there's a slight tailwind on the top-line but it's almost all from demand. And we certainly see that trend continuing through next year. Jean, do you want to cover the view of 2023?
Jean Hu, CFO
To just follow what Matt just said, right, next year, we see strong demand across all our end markets. Frankly, it's a supply constraint when we talk about over 30% revenue growth. That's a supply-constrained outlook of what we're looking at. So the normal seasonality definitely does not apply here. We see Q1 sequentially on a very strong Q4 base to increase approaching mid-single digits. And after Q1, we will see continuous sequential increases. Supply dynamics is certainly something our team will continue to drive. But absolutely, if we have more supply, we definitely have more demand. We can ship more products to customers. So you should expect we see sequential increases each quarter for the rest of the next year.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.
Christopher Rolland, Analyst
Thank you for the question. Fantastic update in the quarter. I was going to dig in on the hyperscale custom silicon side as well. Maybe if you guys could talk about – in terms of your outlook, your big outlook there? How many of, let's say, the top seven big hyperscalers are you guys engaging? And it was kind of touched on, but storage versus networking and optics, where are you guys getting the most interest? I think you kind of covered that. But – and then finally, this is probably too much to ask for. But in the past, we've had some NREs associated with these hyperscalers? Are those NREs still coming in? Or are you guys on your own?
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Sure. Regarding the first question, I would say we are broadly engaged, with our main focus on the big four in the US. That’s where the leadership in technology and thought is, and I believe that’s where we will see the biggest drivers of our growth. Other players will likely follow. We expect to leverage this engagement effectively, but we are also involved across the entire landscape. When we refer to custom, it indeed involves custom compute silicon for various workloads and applications, as well as storage, networking, optics, and a wide range of technologies, including security. The NRE has remained strong, and this isn’t just a story about hyperscalers; it’s widespread across all our businesses. We achieve good visibility in this area because when we develop these products, whether they are custom or semi-custom, they come with development agreements that are milestone-based. Customers have a vested interest, and we do too. This is typically how the NRE is laid out over an extended timeframe. Thus, we have a solid roadmap and a clear view of the situation. Jean's team excels at forecasting and managing the NRE, which continues to grow. The increase in OpEx next year will be complemented by growth in the NRE. We can think of this as incremental spending that may not be entirely visible but is essential for engineering and R&D resources allocated to high ROI projects that will yield returns in several years. It creates a positive cycle, and our team has managed this well as part of our business model. Lastly, regarding the automotive compute design win, it is significantly backed by NRE funding and is a multi-year project. It is absolutely crucial; you can't build a car without it. Therefore, it is vital for us to secure a substantial contract and significant co-funding to bring it to fruition. This aspect of the business model is important, Chris, and remains healthy.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from Quinn Bolton with Needham. Please go ahead.
Quinn Bolton, Analyst
Thanks for squeezing me in. Hey, Matt, you gave us a great outlook through fiscal 2023. But as you looked out beyond fiscal 2023, I think you mentioned you see another big step-up in the 5G business at Nokia, the 5-nanometer platform starts to ramp. I'm just wondering, can you give us a sense, is that step-up really Marvell capturing even greater content on your current share of base station to that customer? Or do you think your 5-nanometer platform is allowing you to grab greater share that customer as the 5-nanometer platforms ramp? Thank you.
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Let me provide a broader answer and then discuss 5G specifically. As you consider the growth from fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2024, the most significant increase will actually come from the cloud segment. At our Investor Day, we highlighted strong design win activities, which are expected to generate an additional $400 million in revenue from cloud in fiscal 2024, with expectations to double that the following year. This is where the step-up is coming from. 5G also has strong growth prospects and one of our key partners there is Nokia. In the 5-nanometer space, we support their ambitions in baseband, CPU, and transport processing, resulting in new content for us that begins at that time. All of this has been planned and is progressing well. It's important to note that we have even more growth opportunities in 5G beyond next year, as we will just be entering the first full year of production. Therefore, we anticipate a strong outlook for both cloud and 5G in fiscal 2024 and beyond, along with the additional prospects from the automotive sector, which will further enhance our overall business model.
Operator, Operator
The next question will come from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Toshiya Hari, Analyst
Thank you for squeezing me in, and congratulations on the very strong results. Matt, I wanted to ask about the enterprise networking business. You talked a little bit about your share growth in Ethernet, I believe. I was hoping you could elaborate on that a little bit. What's driving the success? And if you can speak to sustainability there. And then as my second part, again, sticking to enterprise networking, I think all of us appreciate the secular nature of your business in data center and 5G and auto and industrial. I guess, enterprise networking is perhaps at least on a relative basis, a little bit more cyclical in nature. With the business growing kind of in the 50% to 60% range year-over-year, how should we think about sustainability of growth as we transition into 2022? Thank you.
Matt Murphy, President and CEO
Sure. Yeah. So maybe I'll answer it in two pieces. The first is you're probably asking is, well, what happened? Why? How did you guys do this? And I think if you look back, we've had a commitment to enterprise, okay, from day one, when I became CEO. We never milked the cow. We never took this market for granted. And most of this growth, as you noted, is organic Marvell. Right? So this comes from our Ethernet switch team, which really focused on leadership products, latest process node, very strong software capability from our switch business unit and a real focus on the enterprise market, in new products and new product development, product definition. So that had a huge benefit that started three or four years ago and now those designs are ramping. The second is in our Ethernet PHY transceiver business. We've also moved that from being a technology laggard to a technology leader in Ethernet PHY. And we also did an acquisition of Aquantia, which was a relatively small company when we bought it. But when we put the two teams together, the combined share that we've been able to drive has been very significant. And the road map we were able to accelerate dramatically. That's one of our product areas as an example that we're driving to 5-nanometer, okay? And then that has all kinds of integration opportunities. So customers like the road map. They like the team. They like the story. And that's now showing up. And certainly, the enterprise market is not growing at 50% a year. So you have to draw your conclusion. There's been certainly a share shift as customers have adopted our solutions. And we do believe that this business is going to continue to grow. It will grow next year. It may not grow on the annualized basis at 50% because you're going to start lapping at some point, and we're coming off of a relatively low point from last year. But also remember, our content has gone up on each of these generations as multi-gig Ethernet becomes much more prevalent and especially as enterprises are spending again and implementing WiFi 6, which requires high-speed wired Ethernet connections at multi-gigabit we're seeing switch ports go up on multi-gig, which has our PHY attached to it, plus our switches. So there's also a content story here, Toshi. So I wouldn't exactly say, well, enterprise is like a low single-digit grower and eventually will trend back there. I think between product leadership, share gain, and then content increase, enterprise can continue to be a winning business for Marvell.
Operator, Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session as well as our conference call for today. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.