Earnings Call Transcript - MXL Q2 2024

Operator, Operator

Greetings and welcome to the MaxLinear Second Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Leslie Green, Investor Relations. Thank you, Leslie. You may begin.

Leslie Green, Investor Relations

Thank you, Alicia. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss MaxLinear's second quarter 2024 financial results. Today's call is being hosted by Dr. Kishore Seendripu, CEO; and Steve Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer. After our prepared comments, we will take your questions. Our comments today include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including statements relating to our guidance for the third quarter of 2024, including revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin, GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses, GAAP and non-GAAP interest and other expenses, and GAAP and non-GAAP diluted share count. In addition, we will make forward-looking statements relating to trends, opportunities, execution of our business plan, and potential growth and uncertainties in various product and geographic markets, including without limitation statements concerning future financial and operating results, opportunities for revenue and market share across our target markets, channel inventory turnover, new products, including the timing of production launches and the demand for and adoption of certain technologies. These forward-looking statements involve substantial risks and uncertainties, including risks outlined in our Risk Factor section of our recent SEC filings, including our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2024, which we filed today. Any forward-looking statements are made as of today and MaxLinear has no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. The second quarter 2024 earnings release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website at maxlinear.com. We encourage investors to review the detailed reconciliation of our GAAP and non-GAAP presentations and the press release available on our website. We do not provide reconciliation of non-GAAP guidance for future periods because of the inherent uncertainty associated with our ability to project certain future changes, including stock-based compensation and its related tax effects. Non-GAAP financial measures discussed today are not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for comparable GAAP financial measures. We are providing this information because management believes it is useful to investors as it reflects how management measures our business. Lastly, this call is also being webcast, and the replay will be available on our website for two weeks. And now let me turn the call over to Dr. Kishore Seendripu, CEO of MaxLinear. Kishore?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon, everyone. Our Q2 revenues were $92 million, with a non-GAAP gross margin of 60.2%. In our infrastructure end market, we continue to make good progress with design interaction optical data center as well as wireless access and backhaul products. We are on track to exceed the high end of our expected optical revenue target range of $10 million to $30 million for 2024. We are disappointed by the weakness in our broadband demand due to the prolonged burn-off of the excess customer inventory buildup during the supply chain crisis. We are also seeing continued softness in our telecom markets, with added pressure from U.S.-China tensions and regulatory compliance requirements. This is impacting our ability to make shipments, which affects our Q2 results and Q3 guidance. Despite the discouragingly slower business recovery than anticipated, multiple factors give us confidence that we are well-positioned to resume growth in '25. Owing to our concerted R&D spend over the last three years, we have launched several new products in high-value markets, including optical data center interconnect, enterprise Ethernet and storage accelerators, 5G wireless multi-gigabit PON broadband access, and Wi-Fi 7 connectivity. These products not only open significant new total addressable market (TAM) but are now poised to drive a sustained cycle of revenue growth for the next several years. As a result, we expect strong profitability growth as these products ramp and our large R&D investment spends starts to moderate considerably. Even though demand in our primary markets remains weak, channel inventory continues to come down and is expected to bottom in the second half of the year. Our sell-through revenues continue to run above our sell-in revenues, and we have seen meaningful improvements in our bookings for four quarters in a row, along with both expedites and orders within lead times for certain parts. Now, turning to our markets, our infrastructure business, particularly high-speed optical interconnect, remains exciting, where we are solidly positioned to exceed $30 million in revenue this year and to deliver meaningful run rate growth in '25. We expect to be in production in the second half of the year with one of our lead data center customers and are progressing well through qualification with others. We are on track to deliver our Rushmore family of 200 gigabit per lane PAM4 SERDES and DSPs in time for the early market adopters of 1.6 terabits per second data speeds. Built on Samsung's leading-edge CMOS, Rushmore delivers best-in-class power consumption and performance across optical transceivers, active optical cables, and active electrical cables. Rushmore not only solidifies our long-term optical data center market competitiveness but it will also significantly grow our revenue over the next several years. Industry estimates currently forecast a 50% compounded annual growth rate for PAM4 market shipments through 2027. In 5G wireless infrastructure, revenue grew strongly in Q2 versus the previous quarter in the face of a continuing difficult environment for service provider capital expenditure spend. This growth was driven by hybrid microwave and millimeter-wave backhaul technologies that are required to support the increasing transport data rates needed in a slowly but definitely densifying 5G network. We continue to believe wireless access and backhaul can be a $200 million product line over the next three to five years. Also, within our infrastructure revenues, our Panther III series hardware storage accelerators for the enterprise all-flash array and hybrid storage enterprise appliance systems are providing exciting incremental growth opportunities, particularly in light of the growth in high-speed computing and AI. We are currently in production with a large enterprise OEM and expect additional product ramps later this year with continued growth in 2025 and beyond. In Ethernet connectivity, we continue to expand TAM for our 2.5 gigabit Ethernet product family in Q2 with the announcement of 7 and 10 port switches and 8 port PHYs for the enterprise and small and medium business switch markets. Our Tier 1 North American enterprise OEM customer is expected to ramp to production mid-2025 and contribute to significant Ethernet revenue growth next year. We believe our Ethernet business, including gateways and routers, could reach a $100 million run rate over the next 18 to 24 months. Shifting to the broadband front, we are focused on PON for new TAM growth in broadband and are excited by the design interaction for our platform based on our single-chip integrated fiber PON and 10-gigabit processor gateway SOC, coupled with our tri-band Wi-Fi 7 single-chip solution. We have multiple promising ongoing engagements currently, including a second Tier 1 North American carrier, which we believe can become a major opportunity for us in 2025 and 2026. In conclusion, we are excited and confident in our progress in the infrastructure market with our wireless and optical interconnect products, even as we await broadband recovery. In addition, our Ethernet, storage, Wi-Fi 7, fiber PON, and gateway products are all in the market today and are addressing additional new TAM. They have strong customer traction and are poised for meaningful growth. We are optimizing our efforts around these opportunities which will be transformative for our future business while driving maximum value for our customers and shareholders. With that, let me now turn the call over to Steve Litchfield, our Chief Financial Officer and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer. Steve?

Steven Litchfield, CFO

Thank you, Kishore. Total revenue for the second quarter was $92 million, down 3% from $95.3 million in the previous quarter. Broadband revenue for the second quarter was $22 million, connectivity revenue was $13 million, infrastructure revenue was $32 million, and our industrial multi-market revenue was $25 million. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin for the second quarter were approximately 54.6% and 60.2% of revenue. The delta between GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin in the second quarter was primarily driven by $5.1 million of acquisition-related intangible asset amortization. Second quarter GAAP operating expenses were $91 million, and non-GAAP operating expenses were $74.8 million. The delta between GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses was primarily due to stock-based compensation and performance-based equity accruals of $14.7 million combined, and restructuring costs of $0.9 million related to the workforce reduction initiated in Q4. Non-GAAP loss from operations for Q2 2024 was 21% of net revenue. GAAP and non-GAAP interest and other expenses during the quarter was $0.5 million and $0.4 million, respectively. In Q2, cash flow used in operating activities was approximately $3 million. We exited Q2 of 2024 with approximately $186 million in cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash. Our day sales outstanding were down meaningfully in the second quarter to approximately 84 days. Our gross inventory was also down versus the previous quarter as we continue to make improvements with inventory turns at 1.1x. This concludes the discussion of our Q2 financial results. With that, let's turn to our guidance for Q3 of 2024. We currently expect revenue in the third quarter of 2024 to be between $70 million and $90 million. Looking at Q3 by end market, we expect broadband and infrastructure to be flat to slightly down, industrial multi-market to be down, and connectivity to be slightly up. We expect third quarter GAAP gross margin to be approximately 52.5% to 55.5%, and non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 57% to 60% of revenue. Gross margin continues to be relatively stable, with the expected range being driven by the combination of near-term product, customer, and end market mix. We expect Q3 2024 GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $102 million to $108 million. We expect Q3 2024 non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $70 million to $76 million. We expect our Q3 GAAP and non-GAAP interest and other expenses to be in the range of approximately $0 to $2 million each. We expect our Q3 GAAP and non-GAAP diluted share count to be approximately 84.1 million. Based on the slow recovery and the push outs in certain end markets, we have started the process to align our cost structure with the current environment. We expect to realize meaningful savings in operating expenditures, and we'll begin to see this benefit in Q3. We feel confident that we can achieve an approximately 20% to 25% reduction in operating expenses for fiscal 2025 over fiscal 2024, while still accelerating our top-line growth in the coming years. The estimated reduction includes the finalization of several key product initiatives for which our investment is now complete. MaxLinear has a solid track record of managing our business through downturns with strong fiscal discipline and focused spending. In closing, we continue to navigate a dynamic environment, but we are laying important groundwork and strategic applications that will drive our future growth. Our solid product innovation and execution in optical high-speed interconnects, wireless infrastructure, storage, Ethernet, Wi-Fi, and fiber broadband access gateways are positioning us well across a number of exciting markets. As always, we will continue our strong focus on operational efficiency, fiscal discipline, and shareholder value as we optimize for today and plan for an exciting future. With that, I'd like to open up the call for questions. Alicia?

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

Tore Svanberg, Analyst

Yes. For my first question, Kishore, could you elaborate a little bit more on what you said about not being able to make shipments in telecom? And how much are we talking about here sort of what had the restrictions not been in place, how much revenue could you have shipped?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

Tore, that's exactly right. Towards later in the quarter, we got revocation of a government license to ship some low technology industrial products and some high technology products as well. We were very surprised by it, so that prevented us from shipping revenues in the quarter. With regard to how much it impacted us, Steve, would you want to join?

Steven Litchfield, CFO

Yes, Tore, I mean, I don't have a hard number but it's probably in the $5 million to $8 million range for last quarter or Q2 results. And it will have an impact in the second half of the year, probably on the order of $10 million to $15 million.

Tore Svanberg, Analyst

And as far as the guidance by segments, so I understand why broadband is still sort of flat or down, but I'm a little bit surprised with your comment about infrastructure being flat to down, especially given your momentum in PAM4 DSP. So does that mean that Q4 will actually be a very strong quarter for PAM4 DSP ramp? Or is there anything else going on in that category?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

Q2 was progressing well in optical broadband, but we saw some weakness in wireless infrastructure. Despite this, optical is performing strongly, and we believe we are on track to meet or exceed our expectations. There are some uncertainties in the qualification process that could change our growth narrative, so we are proceeding with caution while remaining confident that we will reach the higher end of our guidance range set at the start of the year. Our focus is on optical, and I do not think the weakness in infrastructure is related to that; it is primarily due to issues in wireless infrastructure.

Tore Svanberg, Analyst

And again, for Q3, is that the same comment then? Wireless being weak, but optical is actually growing?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

That's correct.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna International Group.

Christopher Rolland, Analyst

So I'd just like to understand, I guess you're saying the inventory drain's going to stop in the back half. Is that across all segments? And then can we talk about end demand, how you see it? Do we see a pickup into '25? And is there something beyond that? Have we seen some share shifts here or anything structural as they move to a competitor or something like that? Just as we start modeling 2025, it's getting hard to think about the return of revenue. So any of these moving parts would be great.

Steven Litchfield, CFO

I’ll begin, and Kishore may want to add to this. First, I want to mention that we’ve been having some difficulty with the complete reduction of inventory, which is still present. However, we are seeing encouraging signs of improvement throughout the year. Bookings are on the rise, and we’ve noticed a decrease in channel inventories. While we are making progress, it hasn't reached the level we anticipated by this time of year. Nevertheless, I do expect the situation to continue to get better. Broadband, connectivity, and industrial sectors are still under more pressure due to higher inventory levels. The industrial sector is also facing challenges related to China. In terms of infrastructure, there are positive developments, though telecom capital expenditure is a slight concern, as Kishore mentioned regarding Q2 and Q3. I am optimistic about improvements in the upcoming quarters.

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

So I just would like to add that, I would chalk it up to three elements. The inventory situation is persisting. What that means is that while our sell-through is higher than our sell-in, we are dissipating at a lower speed than we had hoped for. Now, that itself is being impeded by what I would say the CapEx that the service providers are really conjecturing. And they're also trying to make a decision because while this is playing out, there have been technology transitions in operator choice. For example, DOCSIS 3.1 to ultra-DOCSIS and DOCSIS 4.0. And then on the fiber side, the switchover from gigabit PONs to 2.5 gigabit and 10G XGS PON. And so that classic alliance between choosing which way to go is also creating some freeze behavior. So I think we're confronting all of that. Having said that, there are some green shoots in terms of beginning orders. Some positive commentary coming from our OEMs that the inventory is depleting. Unfortunately, not at the rate for us. So how the positive things are happening? So does this sum up to a dissipating situation? The inventory dissipating away by the end of the year and first half recovery starts? I think logic would indicate that. Now, given what we just guided for and what we went through, I would say that definitely 2025 recovery on the PON side, we are seeing strong momentum on the Tier 1 player that we already acquired. They seem to be growing and spending at the right level, so we just need to acquire more share on the PON side, which we are actually gaining share.

Christopher Rolland, Analyst

Maybe as a follow-up just on those on that booking commentary that you had. Is this improving month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter? And what does it tell you about the second half and '25? Like, for example, what is your backlog coverage into the back half or even on that, let's say on that Q3 number? How strong is the backlog coverage for your various businesses?

Steven Litchfield, CFO

So, yes, Chris, I'll take that. We mentioned in our prepared remarks that we have seen four quarters of improvements in bookings. We are experiencing quarter-over-quarter improvements at various times during the quarter. While we don't provide breakdowns of our metrics as we usually do, they are still not at the levels we would anticipate. However, we are seeing improvements. I'll reiterate what Kishore mentioned earlier. We have definitely observed a decrease in inventories, but capital expenditures are still impacting overall market demand.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

Quinn Bolton, Analyst

I want to follow up on Chris's question. For six consecutive quarters, revenue has been declining. I've noticed that many other semiconductor companies are indicating that OEMs are digesting inventory and that bookings are starting to rise. However, you continue to project lower revenue in the upcoming quarters. This makes me think there might be some loss in market share, particularly in broadband and connectivity. Can you help clarify the connection between the improvements in bookings and the inventory digestion, and why revenue is still decreasing in those older markets?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

There are two elements to consider here. First, the legacy markets, specifically DOCSIS 3.1, have been experiencing subscriber losses. They have been shipping refurbished products while maintaining a lower capital expenditure model. Additionally, there is an implicit share issue due to long-term agreements operators have with our competitors. This means that technically, the shipment numbers could reflect a shift in market share. However, from a design-in and future product standpoint, we can't definitively say there have been share losses yet. On the PON side, we have secured new design wins, which may indicate we are gaining traction. The issues you mentioned are more about the current state of the cable subscriber market and overall cable spending, which has primarily driven our broadband revenue. This is the dynamic we are discussing. I want to emphasize that as the transition to new technologies occurs, the average selling price and total revenue potential may not be significantly affected, even with a substantial share shift. This has always been our perspective. The PON market represents a great growth opportunity for us, both in terms of content and market wins. I believe that's where our future broadband growth will originate. Therefore, I'm not viewing this as being limited to the current market. The investments we are making are focused on the future.

Quinn Bolton, Analyst

Yes, I guess I was just, obviously, broadband is down but connectivity is, there was $10 million last quarter, $13 million this quarter. You guys, I think in '21, did over $150 million in that business. It's hard to think that there isn't share loss there. You've talked about just the Ethernet portion of connectivity could get to $100 million run rate which tells me it doesn't feel like there's a lot of Wi-Fi business going on here. Can you talk about the Wi-Fi business and what you see on that front?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

So firstly, I want to give a little bit of color on that, right? The dynamics of Wi-Fi are exactly the same on the dynamics of the cable business. They've been attached at the hip. So when we did $150 million, the broadband business, predominantly cable, was about $700 million or $650 million, somewhere there. So you can run the math at the percentage of the attached rate. Probably the numbers don't change much. If you just take the percentage of Wi-Fi dollars versus the revenues. Now, if you look at the Ethernet guidance, it was specifically about Ethernet or what Ethernet will get to, but we know we have not commented anything about how much Wi-Fi can get to. Having said that, I will say that does Wi-Fi have a potential to get back to a $100 million run rate in the broadband? Absolutely. But that recovers a certain recovery in the cable business, that alone would be sufficient, augmented by the already existing wins in fiber. So you're waiting for the market to recover. So this is not about share loss in terms of Wi-Fi. It's what we attach to on our broadband platforms.

Quinn Bolton, Analyst

And then just a quick one for Steve. You mentioned taking actions to reduce OpEx heading into 2025. And you talked about, I think, an annual decrease in non-GAAP OpEx of 20% to 25%. If I'm doing my math right, it sounds like OpEx for the year would then average somewhere in the $55 million to $60 million level. Is that right? And if that's the right sort of average, does it sort of start higher in Q1 and trend to that level or below in the second half of the year? Just any sort of shape to that OpEx reduction?

Steven Litchfield, CFO

So your math is sound. I think that is exactly the way we're thinking about it. I'm not going to get into granularity on quarter-by-quarter next year, but I mean, you're absolutely right. And it's not like it shouldn't vary that much. Let's put it that way.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

Ross Seymore, Analyst

Just to follow-up Quinn's question. Steve, just to make sure I have it right, I know you don't want to do OpEx on a linear basis but is that 20% to 25%? That's the full year on the full year. That's not kind of an exit rate to exit rate? Just to be clear.

Steven Litchfield, CFO

Correct. Correct.

Ross Seymore, Analyst

At one point, you guys talked about the ability to grow for the rest of the year. Sequentially, obviously, the Huawei or whatever the geopolitical issues are, is one aspect that hurts that. Do you think that you can now grow in the fourth quarter sequentially? And if you're not willing to comment on that, just what would be the puts and the takes as you look forward to the fourth quarter? Cyclical stuff versus company-specific design wins, whatever you guys can go into would be helpful.

Steven Litchfield, CFO

Yes, Ross. Yes, I'm not going to guide Q4. But I mean clearly, it's kind of been frustrating. I feel like it's been a bottoming process. I think we're making really good progress. So I actually do think we'll see some improvements. I'm not going to give you the exact time and date. We've not been super good at projecting that. So I'm not going to start now. But I mean, as far as the indicators, I mean, we've talked about bookings. We've talked about sell-through in general has been very good. So those are, of course, good indicators. I've talked in the past. We continue to see this. We see customers come in kind of frantically ordering inside of our specified lead time. So that's something that is, of course, a good indicator, expedites, things like that. I mean, you can definitely feel across the industry, as I think somebody else previously even commented on, I mean, that the inventory is definitely clearing. And end demand, I mean, as CapEx budgets kind of ease a little bit, you're starting to see some of that spending flow on the broadband side you still have some of this federal subsidy money that some of these folks are waiting on but we're starting to hear from the customers that they're starting to invest that money.

Ross Seymore, Analyst

And I guess the last question, on the gross margin side of things, you guys have kept it very stable, impressively so, given the revenue volatility but it finally seems like it's cracking a bit at the midpoint of your guidance. Is that solely related to just fixed cost coverage given the revenues? Or is there price cut action just because you guys really want to clear out the inventory? What's the reason that the gross margin is down basically a couple of points sequentially?

Steven Litchfield, CFO

The midpoint is 55%. Yes, it has decreased slightly, and you are correct that it is primarily due to fixed costs. Revenues have dropped considerably, impacting that figure. There are certainly markets that are more susceptible to these changes, as we mentioned about China earlier in the call. Some of those markets can become more competitive, but overall, the situation hasn’t altered significantly. I believe our long-term outlook remains unchanged. Additionally, as infrastructure continues to grow, that will contribute positively to gross margins.

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

I would say the fixed cost is the biggest contributor to the center point, and the volatility has always been there in the mix. Plus or minus 2% is what we would always say, but we've always done a good job on that. But the pricing pressure is no different than it used to be. We have combinations of great markets and we have some that are a little bit price competitive. So you're right. It's fixed cost coverage, Ross, that is the biggest one in my opinion.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ananda Baruah with Loop Capital Markets.

Ananda Baruah, Analyst

I just, really, I guess this one from me, how do you see the linearity through the quarter? Yes, I guess just across the various businesses. And that's it from me.

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

I think, it's no different than what we had last quarter. I remember distinctly Steve talking about its heavily back and loaded because we're getting into this turns business. The urgency increases as you head towards it, pushing customers, prodding them. Entering the quarter, we had no way of what I would call 2/3 bookings. It's improved but this turns business is really, really, that's what it's become right now. It's blocking and tackling; so I wouldn't say it's linear. I would say it takes a step up in the second half of the quarter as the sales guys and the customers are grappling with the situation.

Ananda Baruah, Analyst

And is it a case of it just being closed as strong as it might have been able to?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

Could you repeat that question, please?

Ananda Baruah, Analyst

Yes, so is it really what happened towards the end of the quarter? Has it been closed at the pace that you guys thought it could? So a softer close?

Steven Litchfield, CFO

Yes, I mean, as Kishore stated, I mean, it was kind of back and low to begin with. And so things pushed out into the following quarter. I mean, that's kind of...

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

And some disappeared, right? So if it had pushed into the next quarter, then we should be a little bit more energized about this quarter on the front, but that is not the case because some revenue disappeared, namely the China revenue that we spoke about.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Karl Ackerman with BNP Paribas.

Karl Ackerman, Analyst

I have two. First off, could you help frame the size of the opportunity from the second Tier 1 U.S. carrier from what sounds like your single-chip integrated PON and 10-gig processor gateway? And I guess if you address that question, what would dictate that ramp in 2025 versus 2026?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

So very, very good question. You can call if you look at fiber PON, the main players are only two players in North America on the, what you would call, Tier 1 OEMs. They are similarly sized on their gateway rollouts, right? So let's assume that they don't turn all their platforms into one kind. Half of their volume splits into another kind. That is the latest offering we have from ours. Let's assume we get 50% share of that. That's how these operators go. And it could be a $40 million per year opportunity on the gateway side, right? But mind you, we're already shipping them revenue, just ramping on the ONT side which is just basically a fiber termination, the curb or at the home. And that's a high single-digit sort of revenue opportunity. So I would say that is the size of the opportunity. And what would dictate the pace of that design win into the gateways? It really depends on their rollout plans. So far, they've been hitting their milestones on RFPs and things like that. They're not delayed. So are there considerations on CapEx sometime at the end of next year? They're always there. So I would say it's '25, '26 time range. And what really matters is are you winning at these Tier 1s or not. In the business we are on, predicting the exact timing of a ramp has been a hazard. And that's why you build the product cycles to be a scaled company, right? So that you cover each other. So we're covering those gaps that are now exposed because of the big supply chain overhang that we have faced in the last three years.

Karl Ackerman, Analyst

I guess for my follow-up, if I may. Just to go back on CapEx, you are taking a meaningful cut to CapEx, but are these R&D programs being completed primarily on broadband modems? And I guess more importantly, how quickly could you turn that spending back on in the event a recovery is faster than you anticipate?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

Yes, personally, our spending plans are based on my income. There is a responsibility I feel regarding my behavior. Additionally, you need to invest in your children for the future. This is how we approach the issue. The roadmap items that required significant investment for developing the next generation of products requested by our customers are almost finished. We still need to invest in some other product lines, such as an optical data center and certain infrastructure areas like Wi-Fi 8, as these developments progress more quickly than broadband fiber or cable situations. We are entering a phase of reduced R&D spending, which we anticipated. Consequently, spending will decrease. The delay in our customers’ launch plans indicates that we don’t need to be overly aggressive with our spending for their upcoming product rollouts, beyond what we have already completed. It’s important to remember that this is a long-cycle market, typically lasting five to seven years, and the cycles for the completed investments have not yet started. They are expected to begin around 2025 or 2026.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of David Williams with The Benchmark Company.

David Williams, Analyst

I guess, Steve, the first thing is just thinking about the visibility of that inventory that's in the channel. I know you've been kind of struggling through understanding where that inventory is. But I guess my bigger question is, do you think that this is just that the inventory is bleeding down more slowly? Or do you think that maybe you just didn't have a good handle on the magnitude of the inventory that was in the channel when we kind of started going through this inventory digestion?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

I would mention that the magnitude of the inventory is somewhat understood since we ship the product and monitor how much our OEMs are distributing. However, we cannot quantify the behavior of the operators and their actions, which has always been quite unclear, even in the best situations. Therefore, it's not just about the inventory size, but how they are consuming from our OEMs, alongside their own warehouses and subscriber situations. Additionally, in the case of cable, we have refurbishments to consider. There are various dynamics at play. Ultimately, we recognize that the sell-through is slower than we anticipated, but it remains higher than what we are selling in. This trend indicates that it will take longer to address the situation. Steve, do you have anything else to add?

Steven Litchfield, CFO

I think you addressed it well, Kishore. As we look ahead to next year, the excitement isn't necessarily tied to our inventory, which I believe will resolve itself. My focus is on ensuring we succeed with these new platforms. We've touched on the PON platform, the shift to Wi-Fi 7, and the PAM4 opportunity. These new programs are the ones that will drive our revenue, and that's where our attention is concentrated right now. While the inventory is disappointing, it's at a manageable level.

David Williams, Analyst

And then maybe just on the booking side. I know last quarter you had pointed to bookings improving and you talked about that again this quarter, yet we're still seeing kind of a 16% decline from first quarter to the third quarter. Let's try to square how we're seeing better bookings and things seem to be improving a bit there, but we're still not getting the revenue kind of linearity here that we would expect to begin to see on this improving booking side. So I guess maybe you could help me understand how maybe the puts and takes there, how are things a little better in some areas but revenue is still declining and how does that maybe portend to the fourth quarter? Do we continue to see this kind of slide downward? Is there a place where you think that we can go no lower?

Steven Litchfield, CFO

Yes. No, I mean, it's the right question. I mean, bookings, I mean, it probably more than anything, it speaks to how bad bookings were four quarters ago, right? I mean, the whole industry was back when you had a year's worth of backlog and then bookings really slowed down. And so you can live off of that for some period of time without many bookings, right? And that was certainly the case. But as the industry and MaxLinear kind of gets back to the normalcy, I mean, we would expect to see 30%, 40% turns in our business. And so we're headed in that direction. But I mean, I've stated before, bookings are definitely much improved, but they're not to the level that we need them to be at yet. And I mean, that's the crux of the issue.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Suji Desilva with ROTH Capital.

Suji Desilva, Analyst

Steve, you talked about the cost reductions year-over-year. You talked about programs that are kind of winding down. Are there any areas that you're starting to, for lack of a better term, disinvest, kind of pare back roadmap? And are there any areas that are candidates for that if there's a prolonged downturn? Or I mean, you guys are in many, many product areas. I'm wondering if they're all still kind of candidates for growth in the roadmap and investment or whether some areas can be deemphasized if the downturn stays prolonged.

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

The way our product portfolio is structured, we've observed how they operate in end markets, and it's not necessary for all of them to receive investment at the same time. We cycle through them. If we have long product life cycles, we won't complete one product before moving on to another in the same market area. We're leveraging that approach. The most significant investment we've made since acquiring our connected home business from Intel was enhancing our broadband roadmap. This has been our primary focus. Additionally, we're now entering the optical data center market. Having completed our major investments in broadband, we are now focusing on optical. We need to demonstrate commitment across several generations of investments, which is where our current investment emphasis lies. On the wireless infrastructure front, we are concentrating on 5G wireless access through our single-chip solution and remote radio units. Our investment focus has narrowed, with fewer product pipeline targets compared to when we had to invest fully in upgrading the broadband product line. This refining process is occurring through a self-selection mechanism. Thus, I don't see any significant new insights regarding end markets; it's simply the investment timeline across different markets influenced by product life cycles.

Suji Desilva, Analyst

And then on the optical side, just trying to kind of get a framework for what calendar '25 run rate can look like. Should we expect multiple customers supporting your '25 revenue or still the lead customer? And maybe you can tie in why you're hitting the 1.6 transition versus a lot of focus on 800G now. Is that a technical reason? Is that a market intercept reason? Any color there would be helpful.

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

Suji, I think you are sort of a little bit maybe miscommunicating on our side here, but all our revenue is coming from 800 gig, design into 800 gig. But just like our competitors, we have to invest in the next generation, 200 gigabit per wavelength times eight channels with the 1.6 terabit generation. And that one won't hit revenues for a while to come on the data center side. But Keystone, our 800 gigabit product with 100 gigabit per lane, which is eight times 100, will be the mainstay of the revenue and the rollout for many years to come. So nevertheless, we still have to invest in 1.6 terabit just to ensure that we have continuity for future. This is one of those investments where you have to make, even though the revenues may not be substantial in the near-term, right? It's just a continuity of our programs.

Steven Litchfield, CFO

And the first part of your question, Suji, I mean, there are multiple customers that will drive revenues in '25, for sure.

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

Even in '24, the revenue we spoke about is not a single customer. Actually, there are at least three customers driving the revenue. Three meaningful customers, not some idly-piddly ones, right? I just want to be clear.

Operator, Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum.

Richard Shannon, Analyst

I think I'll ask a couple on the broadband topic here. The first one, just kind of putting pen to paper here and splitting that business up between cable and PON, it seems pretty clear that the PON market's bigger than that, if you can just verify that. And then just based, Kishore, I think it was your comments earlier in the Q&A about expecting most of the growth coming from PON in the future which certainly makes sense. I mean, would it make sense that PON will continue to be bigger than cable TV going forward? Do you expect a possible switch over at some point down the line here?

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

Firstly, we are not in the cable TV market; instead, we operate in the cable data market. There are two dynamics at play on the cable side. One is that cable providers are losing market share to telecommunications companies for various reasons. Even though there are subscriber losses, the cost of managing content is increasing, which should offset the decline in subscribers. They likely view the market as stable in dollar terms for us. Based on recovery and share distribution, we anticipate our market share will be around 50%, plus or minus. On the PON side, wireless carriers have begun to attract broadband subscribers through fixed wireless access, primarily targeting the lower end of the market. They are complementing major fiber PON deployments aimed at the higher end of the market, prompting cable providers to upgrade their offerings to compete effectively, as cable generally targets mid to high-end subscribers. In North America, high-end fiber PON will dominate, with advanced gateways, while Europe will focus more on mid to lower-end deployments, representing a much larger market in terms of access to subscribers than cable markets. The PON market has distinct characteristics, but pricing dynamics differ across both markets. Since we have limited or no presence in the fiber PON market except with a Tier 1 player OEM in North America, we are just beginning to gain traction in the gateway sector. We expect our revenues from the PON market to continue to grow, while we anticipate stability in the cable market.

Steven Litchfield, CFO

And to be clear, Richard, the PON market is much bigger than the cable market.

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

Yes, and you've mentioned that many times, so a message certainly received there. My second question here is following-up. And you mentioned this early in response to a question, just kind of alluded to it here again, Kishore, about some sort of contractual level of revenues or share by your competitor that unnaturally keeps their share higher than what you've seen in the past. Under what dynamics, contingencies, etc., market transitions, whatever, allow that to end so that you can get back to more of a normal share level and see that get back to where you've seen it kind of plus or minus 10 percentage points? Richard, I believe you addressed that question yourself. Looking ahead, the potential for market share growth is significant.

Operator, Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

Tore Svanberg, Analyst

Yes. I just had a couple of follow-ups. Back to this export restriction issue, Kishore, again, I guess I'm a little bit confused. I mean we've known about this being an issue in the telecom space, but I think you even mentioned some industrial products. So how new of a development is this? Is this something that's going to continue to impact you going forward? When you guide to $80 million, does that mean China now is pretty much de minimis as a percentage of revenue? Just really trying to understand the dynamics there because it's certainly a pretty last-minute development.

Steven Litchfield, CFO

Yes, Tore. Look, I think this speaks to the ongoing environment we're in with export controls. It did come late in the quarter, so it was a surprise to us. I mentioned earlier on the order of $5 million to $8 million impact in Q2. Yes, it does impact the second half of the year. Probably $10 million to $15 million. I would not say that it is going to limit our ability to sell in China. No. As you're well aware, I mean, we'll be able to continue to sell in China. So I don't think this is somewhat of a one-off situation with a few products.

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

And it's not all customers in China. Specific entities.

Tore Svanberg, Analyst

Last question. So with the new cost structures, is it fair to say that your break-even point will be just under $100 million in quarterly revenue?

Steven Litchfield, CFO

I don't think we're going to get into the model right here, Tore, but it's a good effort.

Operator, Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Kishore Seendripu for closing comments.

Kishore Seendripu, CEO

So thank you all for attending today's conference call. As we navigate through what is a very, what I call a bottoming out of the inventory situation on broadband demand and we look forward optimistically to our success in infrastructure, particularly optical data center. We hope to bring you progress on this in the various investor conferences we are attending in this particular quarter. For that matter, this quarter will be presenting at a number of financial conferences, virtual events, and we'll be posting the details on our Investor Relations page. So once again, thank you all for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon. Thank you very much.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.