Earnings Call Transcript - NATL Q4 2024

Operator, Operator

Good day and welcome to the NCR Atleos Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Brendan Metrano, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Brendan Metrano, Vice President of Investor Relations

Good morning and thank you for joining the NCR Atleos 2024 full year and fourth quarter earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Tim Oliver, CEO; Andy Wamser, Chief Financial Officer; Stuart Mackinnon, Chief Operating Officer and Paul Campbell, CFO. Tim will start this morning with an overview of the company’s performance this year and an update on strategic progress and priorities for 2025. Andy will follow with a review of financial results and our 2025 financial outlook. Then we'll move to Q&A. Before we get started, let me remind you that our presentation and discussions will include forward-looking statements, which are often expressed by words such as may, will, include, expect, and words of similar meaning. These statements reflect our current expectations and beliefs and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations. These risks and uncertainties are described in today's materials and our periodic filings with the SEC, including our annual report. Also, in our review of results today, we will refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which the company uses to measure its performance. These non-GAAP measures are described and reconciled to their GAAP counterparts in the presentation materials and on the Investor Relations website. A replay of this call will be available later today on our website, investor.ncratleos.com. With that, I will turn the call over to Tim.

Tim Oliver, CEO

Thank you, Brendan, and thank you to everyone for joining this call this morning. For those following along in the presentation from the Investor Relations website, I'll start on Slide 5. I will start this morning by reminding you of the compelling Atleos story, reviewing our operational performance and strategic progress in 2024, and then previewing our 2025 outlook. I'll then hand it off to Andy Wamser to review the financial results in the 2025 financial outlook. Andy joined Atleos as CFO in late January and brings the experience that includes CFO roles at public companies and investment banking. I'm very pleased to have Andy on the team. I'd also like to thank Paul Campbell who recently stepped down from the CFO role for his 37 years with NCR and Atleos. He has continued to work with the company to facilitate the closing and the Sarbanes-Oxley process for 2024 and importantly to ensure a smooth transition for the finance organization. I am grateful to Paul for both his significant contributions to our company over the almost four decades and more personally for his support of me, both in my old role and in my new role as Atleos's CEO. Reflecting on our first full year as an independent company and our best quarter yet, it is impossible to overstate what Atleos's team has accomplished. One year in, our employees are engaged and energized, our customers recognize the return to best-in-class service levels and appreciate our reinvigorated innovation efforts. Our strategic progress is pushing our revenue per ATM higher and our financial performance has been solid and steady. In nearly every regard, 2024 was an outstanding year for Atleos and I am proud to report the company's impressive fourth quarter and full year results today. Despite being a standalone publicly traded ATM-centric company for about five quarters, equity investors' share of mind and daily trading volumes in Atleos are still too low. Presuming that many investors are new to this story, I think it is valuable on these calls to provide a quick description of the company and the compelling opportunity we see for all of our constituencies, but with particular focus on investors. While our employees, customers, partners, and communities have all recognized the compelling outlook for Atleos, the company remains significantly undervalued relative to our peer companies, and our strong performance has not translated into compensatory gains in enterprise value. Since separating from legacy NCR through a spin transaction, Atleos is now a pure play independent company with a leadership position in self-service banking, a clear strategy and we've begun building a track record of strong financial performance and predictable free cash flow generation. Atleos has an installed and service fleet of approximately 600,000 ATMs around the world, including approximately 80,000 that we own and operate in our own networks. In a global environment that continues to demonstrate steady cash-based consumer transactions and a stable installed base of ATM hardware, our growth will come from generating more revenue for Atleos for every machine that we service and support, whether that's from providing higher quality, more efficient, and more comprehensive services to our financial institution clients or by driving more transaction volume across our own network machines located in blue chip retail locations. Both of these strategies are fueled by our customers' desire to improve financial access for their customers while outsourcing more of their cash ecosystem. We serve as both growth vectors from a common infrastructure that is unmatched in scale, is leverageable, and is world class. As global banks continue to seek to improve their customers' experience in the most cost-effective way, the importance of self-service devices is increasing. As a result, our customers are reinvesting back into their retail banking footprint and embracing shared financial utilities. For them, this strategy will result in lower costs, higher quality, better consumer experience, broader reach and higher foot traffic. For Atleos, it will drive higher revenue growth, increased profitability from both scale and a richer revenue mix and predictable and growing free cash flow. Turning to Slide 6 for a review of 2024. 2024 was a year of unmitigated success for Atleos. After completing a complex corporate separation in October of 2023 that would require us to be myopically focused in the completion of that transaction, we quickly redirected our focus to establishing a new independent company with a clear growth strategy and engaged global employee base of nearly 20,000 people and satisfied customers that allow us to be trusted strategic partners. For the full year 2024, we generated over $4.3 billion in revenue, $3.22 of adjusted EPS and over $242 million of adjusted free cash flow, all in line or above the financial targets we set out for the year. Margin expanded year-over-year and increased sequentially in each quarter, benefiting from an accretive revenue shift mix towards services coupled with cost productivity initiatives that accelerated across the year. As we begin 2025, our strategy is being validated. Demand for more capable ATMs with enhancements like cash recycling or tap capability or biometric authentication is accelerating. Banks and retailers are increasingly acknowledging the commercial logic of outsourcing noncore ATM services to capable operators like Atleos. And the demand for shared utilities that provide immediate and low-cost coverage away from traditional bank branches is growing globally. Moving to slide 7 in the self-service banking business. This is primarily a service business comprised of a globally installed base of over 500,000 ATMs that we sell to our financial institutions with a software subscription and then service and support over time. Traditionally, those services were centered on repairs and light maintenance, but increasingly banks are opting to outsource all of the other services necessary to run the ATM to others. Full year 2024 financial results were in line or slightly above expectations. Revenue grew at a healthy mid-single digit pace. Services and software were the primary growth drivers and resulted in 9% growth in recurring revenue. ATM as a service contributed one full point of top line growth for the year. From a profitability perspective, direct and indirect cost savings initiatives generated over $100 million in gross savings, which eliminated split-related dissynergies and more than offset inflation and unanticipated expenses like the Red Sea shipping disruption. This productivity coupled with a more advantageous revenue mix resulted in approximately 400 basis points of margin expansion from the first quarter through to the fourth. Over the past year, we committed considerable resources to product and service quality and go-to-market execution to support our strategy. Service levels began to improve quickly, and by the end of 2024, we were at multiyear highs. We were pleased to see our commitment to service acknowledged externally. In February of 2025, Atleos was awarded the ATMIA Outstanding Service Award, recognizing our company for excellence in technology, service, and leadership and best practices. We also relaunched a product innovation effort and previewed concept machines that we modified to reflect our customers' reactions to them and then ultimately commercialized. The top strategic priority for this business remains capturing more comprehensive service revenue for every machine that we service and support around the world. In 2024, we generated 27% revenue growth in the ATM as a service full outsourcing product and grew software and services overall at 8%. ATM as a service exited the year with an ARR of more than $20 million. We grew the number of unique customers by 50% in 2024 and finished the year with over 28,000 active devices. We have a robust backlog and a sales pipeline that positions us well for 2025. We continue to see appetite across the broad range of financial institutions to outsource all or a portion of their ATM-centric services to a singular provider. As discussed in last quarter's call, customers see the ATM as a service opportunity as a continuum of outsourced services that can migrate piecemeal and over time. And while we have passed on some large unit count ATM full outsourcing deals in lower cost regions, our backlog continues to grow. The quality of that backlog is very high and the significant streamlining of our onboarding organization has sped up implementation. For 2025, we expect the ATM as a service business revenue will grow over 40% and that we will exit 2025 with an ARR of over $300 million. Moving to the Network segment on Slide 8. The network segment is our utility banking business that consists of approximately 80,000 owned and operated ATMs located in blue chip retail locations. This business performed well in the fourth quarter and for the full year with financial results generally above our expectations. The traditional ATM network revenues were up in the mid-single digits for the full year, excluding the decline in our crypto transaction unit, LibertyX. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by more than 150 basis points and ARPU grew in each quarter with the fourth quarter setting another new high. We generated strong top-line performance with high single-digit transaction growth in both the U.S. and international markets, fueled by the addition of new high-quality banking and retail partnerships, new transaction types, and new geographies. Our Allpoint branded network grew transactions in double digits for both the fourth quarter and the full year as the value proposition continued to resonate with retail banking customers looking for convenient, safe, and low-fee channels to conduct their regular banking activities. Recently, a top 20 retail bank headquartered in the Midwest executed a new surcharge-free partnership agreement that will see them direct their customers to our retail locations. We expanded key commercial relationships and invested in technologies that enable us to conduct the broadest possible range of transactions at our machines. We expanded our partnership with Chime during the fourth quarter, and we completed the branding of more than 4,000 Allpoint ATMs in our pharmacy locations now that display the brand of Chime. Many issuers and program managers including key partners such as Capital One, P&C, and Navy Federal Credit Union have upgraded to our more comprehensive Allpoint Plus offering that enables their customers to make cash deposits at our locations. This resulted in almost 200% growth in deposit transactions in 2024. Deposit transactions are profitable for us and typically generate follow-on transactions by the consumer. We finished the year with an annualized run rate of nearly $1 billion in deposits. And we continue to see growth in our ReadyCode product with transaction-driving programs at additional partners such as Lyft. ReadyCode is appropriate for many accountless, cardless cash distribution needs and we are in discussion with several other significant partners. Turning to Slide 9 to discuss our plans for 2025. A year ago, we laid out three primary goals that were appropriately broad to allow every employee in our company to align their objectives with our company's success. Part of our success in 2024 is attributable to that continuity of thought and alignment. In 2025, we have again communicated new top-level objectives that should allow similar alignment and similar success. The first is to grow efficiently. Accelerating growth while we're still somewhat constrained by our balance sheet will require judicious allocation of growth capital and operating expense. We will emphasize those growth vectors that drive more immediate returns and are accretive to margin rate and to cash generation. We will also deemphasize some products or regions or even customer sets that are less profitable to allow us to reemphasize others. The second is to develop a service-first culture. We believe service, not product, is a key differentiating factor in the ATM industry and in the cash ecosystem. Service already makes up about half of our revenue base and carries higher margins. As our strategic plan plays out, service revenue opportunities will outpace the overall market growth dynamic. Gaining share of wallet through outsourced services requires a deep customer trust that can only be achieved through sustained customer excellence and leading service performance. A 24/7 always-on customer service mindset is essential for our long-term success. And finally, we will embrace simplicity. The complexity that we inherited from our former life as part of the legacy NCR is unnecessary and inefficient. Investment in our people, our systems, and our processes will make us more nimble, make our employees' jobs more rewarding, and make us much easier to do business with. Our strategy is simple, and our operations need to be as well. Before I hand over to Andy, I want to thank the 20,000 Atleos team members for delivering a great first full year through their diligent work, their dedication to continuous improvement, focus on customer success, and a positive collaborative disposition. Thank you for all you did in 2024, and thank you for accepting the challenge of an even better 2025. The bar does get higher, but the future is bright. With that, Andy, over to you.

Andy Wamser, CFO

Thank you, Tim. Reinforcing some of Tim's comments, 2024 was an outstanding year for Atleos as we are well positioned for another strong year in 2025. We are pleased to have delivered four consecutive quarters of solid operational and financial results in our first year as a public company. We set ambitious goals as we started the year and delivered results that either met or exceeded expectations each quarter. Moreover, it's encouraging to see the company's strategy being validated and delivering financial results that sequentially improved as we move throughout the year. For full year 2024, total company revenue was $4.3 billion and grew 3% year-over-year on a reported basis with comparable underlying growth of around 3%. Our services and software businesses grew mid-single digits and led to 5% growth in recurring revenues. The mix of recurring revenue increased to 73% and highlights our ability to drive solid growth in predictable service-oriented revenue streams that generate great returns and free cash flow. Overall, the healthy top line trends reflect the effective execution of our strategy, driving incremental revenue from our global installed base. 2024 adjusted EBITDA was $781 million and grew an impressive 7% year-over-year reflecting strong flow through from the top line growth, favorable business mix and net productivity savings. Looking at the reporting segments, self-service banking and lower corporate costs drove most of the EBITDA growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 18.1% for 2024 and expanded 60 basis points from the prior year. What is even more impressive is that we increased margin 440 basis points over the course of the year, as we overcame dissynergies from the split, higher labor costs and other external cost headwinds. We were able to deliver the margin improvement with growth in higher margin business lines coupled with productivity initiatives that progressed throughout the year. Moving below the line, interest expense was $309 million and is not comparable to the prior year because our debt was raised in the fourth quarter of 2023 with the legacy NCR split. The full year adjusted effective tax rate was 21%, which was better than expected due to one-time discrete benefits related to the spin. Fully diluted average share count was 74 million. So putting the pieces together, fully diluted adjusted earnings per share was $3.22 which meaningfully exceeded our guidance of $3.12. We generated an impressive $242 million of free cash flow in 2024, which was also well above our guidance of approximately $205 million. The upside of free cash flow was primarily due to the timing of cash taxes, a lower tax rate and effective working capital management. Turning to Slide 12. The key message here is to highlight just how well underlying performance has been for the key fundamentals that we are most focused on. Overall results just don't fully represent how effective our strategy and execution was in the year. Across both of our core businesses, we generated solid revenue in the key services business lines. Extrapolating this progress into the future, Atleos should continue to enhance its growth and profit profile. Ultimately, this will be a key factor in shareholder value creation. Moving to Slide 13 for a review of our fourth quarter results. Total company revenue was $1.1 billion which was up 1% year-over-year or approximately 6% on a core constant currency basis. Our core services and software lines of business grew mid-single digits and led to similar growth in recurring revenues. Adjusted EBITDA was $219 million and grew a notable 23% year-over-year due to top line growth in core businesses, favorable business line mix and net productivity savings. From a segment perspective, self-service banking and network accounted for most of the growth. EBITDA margin was 19.8% and expanded 360 basis points year-over-year. This reflects the strong operating leverage of our growing service businesses, combined with our ability to drive productivity savings for direct and indirect costs. Moving to Slide 14. Fourth quarter diluted adjusted earnings per share was up 73% year-over-year to $1.11 and exceeded expectations driven by better-than-expected profits and an effective tax rate lower than the prior year. Moving to the chart on the right. During the fourth quarter, we generated an impressive $119 million of free cash flow. The fourth quarter is typically when we generate our highest free cash flow of the year, but this year was even better than we had expected due to the combination of strong profits, working capital management and the timing of cash taxes. Moving to Slide 15. Self-service banking had an outstanding fourth quarter with results exceeding our expectations. Starting the upper left, revenue grew 8% year-over-year to $718 million. The primary growth driver was 10% growth for our services and software business lines, partially offset by hardware revenue deferral associated with the shift to bank outsourcing solutions or ATM as a service. The chart on the top right illustrates the progressive increase in adjusted EBITDA over our first four quarters. We reached $181 million in Q4 2024, led by strong growth and high-margin software revenue and productivity initiatives. Adjusted EBITDA margin increased 50 basis points sequentially to over 25% in Q4. This capped off a year in which margins expanded 390 basis points from Q1 to Q4. As we continue to focus on higher margin services and software solutions, while driving continuous improvements through cost and expense initiatives, our adjusted EBITDA margin trends continue to grow materially faster than revenue. Moving to the bottom of the Slide. KPIs remained on a positive trajectory in the fourth quarter. The mix of recurring revenue was 60%, up approximately 200 basis points year-over-year. ARR was up 10% year-over-year, reflecting the continued build in services and software revenue from our existing installed base. Moving to Slide 16. As a reminder, our Bank Outsourcing Solutions business resides within our self-service banking segment, but as a strategic priority for the company, we present key operational metrics separately to help investors better understand and track our progress. Referring to the top left of the slide, revenue grew 24% year-over-year to $52 million in the fourth quarter. We had strong interest and conversion from bank customers in 2024, resulting in a 50% increase in customer count and expansion into 11 new markets. On the right, you can see that in the fourth quarter, we were able to generate strong gross profit, which increased 29% year-over-year to $17.4 million and translated to gross margin of 33%. Importantly, bank outsourcing margins had been accretive to total company margins. Moving to the bottom of the slide, KPIs also continued to move in the right direction in the fourth quarter. On the left, ARR continued its sequential momentum in the fourth quarter and was up 25% year-over-year to over $212 million dollars. On the bottom right, you can see that ARPU of $8,600 for the fourth quarter is a new high and was up 5% over fourth quarter of 2023 ARPU of $8,200. The takeaway here is that the economics of bank outsourcing services continue to ramp up as expected, driving incremental service revenue. Looking at the backlog at the end of the year, the average ARPU was over $10,000, which should help to support continued ARPU growth in 2025. As Tim noted, as the business model evolves, so will relevant KPIs. Based on the business today, we think revenue growth is the most relevant metric and that is how we will frame our forward-looking view. Moving to the Network segment on Slide 17. The Network business turned in another quarter of solid underlying fundamental performance. Filtering out noise from FX headwinds and our Liberty crypto business, core ATM Network revenue grew approximately 4% year-over-year in 2024. Fourth quarter segment revenue was $317 million which was down 2% year-over-year on a reported basis. Revenue growth was led by 6% growth in withdrawal transaction volumes in North America, partially offset by 2% decrease for international. The international decrease is primarily due to cycling against challenging prior year comps associated with last year's Asda U.K. launch. Deposit transactions continued to accelerate in the fourth quarter and grew around 240% year-over-year and 90% sequentially. Additionally, we are seeing increased use cases for our ReadyCode product with volumes up 50% sequentially, but again from a small base. Moving to the upper right, adjusted EBITDA of $114 million was at the high end of our target range and grew 14% year-over-year and 11% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA margin was exceptionally strong at 36%, illustrating the significant operating leverage of processing more transactions through our owned and operated fleet of ATMs. In addition, margin benefited from a larger than expected accrual adjustment in the quarter. The metrics at the bottom of the slide highlight key elements of our strategy. The chart on the left shows our last 12 months average revenue per unit was up 7% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. On the right, you can see our ATM portfolio finished the quarter at approximately 78,000 units. The slight decrease in unit count is due to pharmacy partners closing low performing stores, which is where we also have lower volume transactions. This has had a negligible impact on our revenue as customers usually visit nearby locations where we have units. As discussed earlier, transaction volumes continue to hit all-time highs despite the modest reduction in our unit base. We expect the number of ATM network units to increase in 2025 through the addition of both new retail partners and geographies. Slide 18 provides a trending product-centric view of results to help investors assess and model the company. A couple of points to highlight on this slide. First, how Atleos is primarily a services-oriented company with a recurring revenue model rather than a hardware company with cyclical sales associated with refresh cycles. Second, our strategy is working. Our services, software, and transactional businesses have solid momentum with respect to both revenue and profit. As a reminder, the other Voyix operations represent legacy NCR Voyix exited geographies and commercial agreements between Atleos and NCR Voyix. We expect business results to continue to decline in these non-core operations. On Slide 19, we present a reconciliation of 2024 free cash flow and a snapshot of our financial position at year-end. There are a couple of items worth calling attention to. First, the impressive 2024 free cash flow of $242 million included a higher burden of cash interest expense. Due to our recent October refinancing, interest expense should be less of a cash flow headwind in 2025. Second, we made significant progress on our net leverage throughout the year. Our net leverage reduced by a half turn and ended the year at 3.2x from 3.7x at the end of 2023. Given our financial outlook and capital allocation priorities, we believe we will have a similar reduction in net leverage as we close out 2025. Turning to Slide 20 and our 2025 financial outlook. Our businesses began the year with positive momentum and we expect underlying performance for this year will be strong just like 2024. Reported results do face some headwinds, notably FX rate pressure on reported results and cycling through the wind down of Voyix related business in the other segment. Our revenue and EBITDA guidance commentary will be on a constant currency basis. Starting with the full year, we expect core revenues, which exclude the other Voyix related segment, will grow 3% to 6% on a constant currency basis. We currently forecast currency to be a 2% headwind. We expect total company revenue will grow 1% to 3% on a constant currency basis with FX again a 2% headwind. Total company adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow 7% to 10% on a constant currency basis with FX having about a 1% headwind. Note that we've updated our methodology for calculating EBITDA beginning in 2025 to exclude other income and expense. This is consistent with the methodology used by most of our peers and should result in lower non-fundamental volatility in EBITDA. As a result, the 2024 adjusted EBITDA base under our new methodology would be $794 million rather than $781 million. We expect fully diluted earnings per share will grow 21% to 27% and be in the range of $3.9 to $4.1. We expect free cash flow to be between $260 million to $300 million. Below the line assumptions incorporated into our full year guidance includes approximately $275 million of interest expense, effective tax rate of approximately 24% and fully diluted share count of approximately $76 million. At the segment level, we expect self-service banking will grow revenue mid-single digits on a constant currency basis. Currency is expected to be around a 2% headwind to revenue. We expect adjusted EBITDA will grow 12% to 13% on a constant currency basis. FX is expected to be a 1% headwind to EBITDA growth. Margins should expand year-over-year and be in the mid-20s. For the Network business, we expect revenue growth to be in the low to mid-single digits on a constant currency basis. FX is expected to be a 1% headwind to growth. We expect adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 29%. The decrease in EBITDA margin is due to higher bulk cash costs resulting from the expiration of hedges that were implemented three to four years ago during a much lower interest rate environment. TNT revenue is expected to be down with EBITDA flat to up slightly. Voyix related revenue is expected to be between $40 million to $45 million with EBITDA of approximately $5 million. Corporate costs should be approximately flat year-over-year. For the first quarter of 2025, we expect core revenues, which exclude Voyix related, to be essentially flat on a constant currency basis. Total company reported revenue is expected to be down mid-single digits due to the cycling of the prior year comparison for the other Voyix related segment. As context, Voyix related revenue in Q1 2024 had approximately $60 million and we would expect it to be around $10 million in Q1 2025. Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be $165 million to $175 million which would represent approximately 5% growth year-over-year at the midpoint. Adjusted EPS of $0.5 to $0.6 per share, which would also represent 34% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. We expect free cash flow will be modestly negative in the first quarter due to working capital. For context, we have a robust second quarter order book in hardware and we'll have to invest in inventory during Q1 to fulfill those orders. We expect to generate positive free cash flow in each of the last three quarters of 2025. Below the line assumptions incorporated in our guidance include $65 million of interest expense, effective tax rate in the low 30s and fully diluted share count of approximately $75 million. Lastly, throughout this earnings season, companies with international operations have been asked about the potential impact of tariffs. Based on what has been implemented thus far that impacts our business, which is Mexico, we have limited exposure to tariffs. We have a very small spare parts operation in Mexico and we are in the process of implementing plans, which includes building inventory to reduce that exposure. Beyond that, global geopolitical and trade relations are very complex, and it's nearly impossible to predict the potential permutations of tariffs at this time. We are continuously monitoring developments and assessing our potential risks and solutions. Concluding my comments on Slide 21, Atleos had a highly successful first full year in 2024. We delivered impressive financial performance throughout the year, consistently meeting or exceeding financial targets, generating significant free cash flow and improving our financial profile. We executed well operationally, enhancing our capabilities, competitive position and relationships with customers, which is setting the stage for another strong year in 2025. Importantly, we made great progress on our growth strategy, putting us on a path to realize the tremendous opportunity we see in bank outsourcing for the cash ecosystem. Reflecting on these accomplishments, we are very optimistic about our opportunity to create value for our shareholders in 2025 and beyond. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. We'll take our first question from Matt Summerville with D.A. Davidson.

Matt Summerville, Analyst

Thank you, and welcome, Andy. Two quick questions. First, can you talk about the ARPU in the as a service backlog? I thought last quarter that number was something north of $13,000 on a per unit basis and now I think you referenced a $10,000 sort of number. So can you talk about maybe the quarter-on-quarter shift there? And then off of a base of say $10,000, how that trends out looking over the next few quarters? And then I have a follow-up.

Tim Oliver, CEO

Yes, thank you, Matt. We mentioned that the average ARPU in the backlog is between $12,000 and $13,000. We have started to implement some of those devices, which led to an increase in ARPU during the fourth quarter for that segment. We converted some high ARPU units from backlog into production, and this was a significant quarter, increasing our total machines from about 6,000 in one quarter. The current backlog still includes several high-margin machines, but there has been a slight shift towards regions like India, where both revenue and profitability are a bit lower. This geographic distribution in the backlog influenced the change in ARPU. However, we believe that over the year, the average ARPU of new units we bring into this figure will be higher than the current $8,600 per device.

Matt Summerville, Analyst

Perfect. And then as a follow-up, you'd mentioned in your prepared remarks seeing some pretty nice inbound demand on the hardware side. Can you just maybe do a little bit of a geographic walk around the globe, so to speak, in terms of what you're seeing from the demand trend, not only for hardware but just your as a service offering? Thank you.

Tim Oliver, CEO

Yes. In countries where our as-a-service model has been adopted as the primary revenue generator, we're experiencing solid growth. India is currently a strong market for this offering. We're also noticing increased traction in Western Europe regarding ATM as a service, and the U.S. market has been favorable, especially with clients operating 300 machines or fewer. We've achieved several smaller wins in the U.S., but there aren't many large contracts likely to transition to ATM as a service. For this offering, we are focusing on the same markets we've discussed previously, and we plan to introduce our product into at least four or five new countries this year. Regarding hardware, our primary markets are still Western Europe and the U.S., largely due to the higher value of the devices sold there. We now have a significantly improved recycler product ready for market, which is rapidly being adopted by some major customers in the U.S. This development is quite beneficial for us. Although we were slightly delayed in launching this product, we are back on track, and it should positively impact our hardware revenue. As we've mentioned before, there's a modest wave from the hardware refresh that was pulled forward in 2019, which is now occurring globally, particularly in Europe and North America. This refresh is not as significant as the one in 2019, which will unfold over several years, but we are seeing the older 2019 machines beginning to be retired. We anticipate that this year, next year, and possibly even into 2027 will be good years for hardware, leading to some uplift, and it will also provide us with opportunities to discuss transitioning to ATMs as a service with our customers as they upgrade.

George Tong, Analyst

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Can you remind us how many ATM as a service units you had by the end of the quarter and what your latest expectations are for 2025 and beyond?

Tim Oliver, CEO

Yes, I think we finished the fourth quarter with 28,000 units, which is an increase from approximately 22,000 at the end of the third quarter. Although we fell short of our goal of 30,000 units for the full year, we had a strong fourth quarter. We had previously indicated that this year would be back-end loaded regarding implementation, largely due to our own and our customers' onboarding readiness. Moving forward, we will no longer use units as a key performance indicator because not all units contribute equally to revenue and profitability. For example, units in North America are considerably more beneficial compared to additional units in India. Instead, we will focus on revenue growth in this area. Currently, we have 6,000 units in backlog, and I anticipate we will end the year with around 40,000 units. Importantly, I expect the annual recurring revenue for this business to exceed $300 million, up from about $210 million today.

George Tong, Analyst

Yeah, got it. And then in your network business, the number of managed units went down because of the rationalization of low performing stores. Can you talk about how much longer you expect this rationalization process to go on for?

Tim Oliver, CEO

We don't know. We're watching it very carefully. These pharmacies are very good customers of ours. They keep in constant contact with it. You see there's a transaction announced for Walgreens, I think, last or rumors of a Walgreens transaction last night. We're very tied in with these folks. The good news is when they shut down a store, it's probably a machine that wasn't performing particularly well for us anyways. And so if it's underperforming for them, it's probably underperforming for us. We move that machine elsewhere and we pick up just across the street the transaction volumes on devices around the corner. So we don't tend to lose revenue. We just lose a node on the system. I think we'll sign deals in 2025 that add 3,000 or 4,000 units to that count, which will, in essence, get us back to where we were. So over time, this may perturbate a bit, but fundamentally, that 80,000 units, unless we add new geographies and fleets in other parts of the world, is probably we're going to get back around that midpoint over time. But so look for some sizable wins in '25 that allow that number to come back up. I don't know how many more drugstores are going to close, but as long as they're underperforming and I have a machine nearby, I'm not that concerned about it.

Dominick Gabriele, Analyst

Good morning, everyone, and welcome, Andy. Considering the strategy you've discussed, focusing on North America and Europe for higher ARPU machines compared to India, I noticed some comments in this call suggesting that the backlog might be shifting towards India due to what you've sold. Are you still concentrating on moving towards these more profitable revenue-generating units in North America and Europe instead of India?

Tim Oliver, CEO

No. I'm not prioritizing one market over the other. Both India and other regions are important for us, and scale is critical. We have over 120,000 machines in India, making it a significant market, and I aim to maintain and possibly expand our installed base there. There are other regions like Brazil and Argentina where the shift toward ATM as a Service is gaining momentum and new networks are forming, presenting different pricing opportunities. We will compete in those markets as well. However, when we discuss revenue or profitability growth, a shift towards North America or Europe will be more advantageous for us in that timeframe. I didn’t mean to imply that we will limit our focus to larger, more developed markets; there are significant opportunities elsewhere. We recently explored Latin America, where we see vast potential. We are the leading player in Brazil, with a highly leverageable installed base, so we need a strategy for that market too. The equipment will be somewhat less costly, and service expenses will be lower compared to North America. We value all markets equally, but some contribute more to our financial results than others.

Shlomo Rosenbaum, Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. Hey, Tim, I understand you're not going to focus on like the units in ATM as a service because it's more of a continuum, so it's less relevant. But could you talk about the success you might have had over the year in terms of moving customers up that continuum? So in other words, customers that might be taking some of the outsourcing services where you're starting to get them to take more of the outsourcing services?

Tim Oliver, CEO

Thank you for your question; it's very relevant to us. We view ATMs as a service as a comprehensive outsourcing solution that encompasses everything related to ATMs, including cash in transit, which we would need to subcontract. Other companies that have entered this space often use a narrower definition of the term. We currently manage around 90,000 machines, which aligns closely with what others refer to as ATM as a service. Over the past year, we've noticed many customers transitioning from managed services to what we define as full ATM as a service. This shift seems like a natural progression. Looking ahead to 2025 and beyond, our goal is to convert traditional customers who typically only purchase hardware along with break-fix service and software agreements into managed services. We aim to understand which services they'd like us to take on, allowing us to gradually expand our offerings. Additionally, many customers in the managed services sector have seen our effectiveness and cost-efficiency, making them likely candidates to transition to full ATM as a service. We plan to highlight our managed service portfolio and potentially combine the two, illustrating the migration path for customers. We have a chart from a previous conference that outlines the transition from managed services to full ATM as a service, which we can share again. We've experienced success in this area, representing a clear trend for customers moving from traditional models to managed services and ultimately to full outsourcing.

Andy Wamser, CFO

Sure. As we analyze EBITDA, we will be excluding other income and expenses in the future. The volatility we've seen in our previous methodology has largely been linked to pensions, foreign exchange, and to some extent, bank fees. We believe that this new definition will help reduce some of that volatility we experience in a quarter. The potential impact could be an aggregate of $5 million to $10 million in a given quarter, and we anticipate that this will help stabilize our guidance and results. Sure. So for vault cash, we rent directionally about $3 billion in cash. And we would have fairly aggressive or also favorable terms in terms of how we get that cash from select bank partners. When you look at what happened, let's say, 3 or 4 years ago, a lot of we put in place a lot of hedges that were able to lock in rates in a much lower rate environment. So when I look at some of those hedges, they were layered in. And so then what's happening then in 2025 is that we're rolling off as we get to the back half of the year some of those favorable hedges. So that is really the key driver in terms of what's happening to, I'll say, our COGS within network. The thing that I would emphasize though is while there is going to be some pressure year-over-year in that segment, the EBITDA margin is still, I said, would be close to 29%. I mean, it's just around 30%. So it's still a great business, but we are going to be lapping some of the impact of hedges vault cash.

Tim Oliver, CEO

Yes. Andy wasn't here when we did the acquisition of Cardtronics, but at the time, we sold a model to our board and committed to a model to our board around profitability that described that as a good acquisition. And it has turned out to be a good acquisition. But we hedged that model by putting in place significant amount of swaps around the $3 billion or $4 billion of vault cash at the time. As those roll off, we're now paying market rates. And so the good news is our margin rates now at market rates are very, very similar to what they were prior to the acquisition, which was in a period of time in which rates were very, very low. Or say it differently, the productivity and the profitability we generated with new business across the network has allowed us to, in essence, absorb all of the hit over the last several years from those interest rates. I'm hopeful that we'll see some relief going at some point. We'll see some relief in interest rates. But what you're seeing now is us performing at market rates with the highest margins in our company and margins that are approaching 30%.

Shlomo Rosenbaum, Analyst

Great. I've taken a lot. Can I squeeze in one more, if you're okay with that? There was a talk a little while ago in terms of third-party financing for some of the ATMs as a service hardware and stuff like that. Is that still something that's being focused on? Or is it really because we're going to ATMs as a service kind of light that the customers are really just doing stuff on their own that that's not really part of what you guys are working on internally in order to kind of accelerate that business?

Tim Oliver, CEO

Yes, that opportunity still exists for both aspects of your question. When Paul and I initially built this model, we anticipated that ATM as a service would be significantly more capital intensive than it has turned out to be. We originally thought that about 70% of the transactions would require new hardware on our balance sheet, but it has actually been the opposite. Only about 25% to 30% of the deals have needed new hardware, and we have shown a preference for those types of transactions. As a result, we've used much less capital than expected. However, we are still exploring non-recourse off-balance-sheet financing opportunities for fleets of devices that are sensible. Paul has been diligent in placing some devices, but we haven't yet had deals substantial enough to launch those initiatives. Perhaps Andy can provide more details on what those opportunities might be.

Andy Wamser, CFO

Yes. That was a great introduction to that. So what I would say, it's an absolute key focus for us. And as we move into the second quarter, I would expect us to be able to find a solution that will work and that will be financed off balance sheet. But that is that's certainly in our plan and we fully expect to do that.

Chris Senyek, Analyst

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I want to ask how we're thinking about capital allocation here. I know you'd mentioned near-term debt pay downs is a priority, but with the stock trading at the level at which it is currently because of the broader macro concerns is something, are you guys considering maybe perhaps implementing a buyback plan sooner than otherwise anticipated?

Tim Oliver, CEO

I enjoy announcing earnings in weak markets and manage to do it every quarter. The only shift in our conversations with investors is the hurdle rate for overall leverage, which influences when equity investors begin to ask for cash returns. In this market, the emphasis on share repurchase may have slightly diminished. We have discussed lowering our net leverage to 3x, which equates to about 4x gross leverage, a figure some investors focus on more. When leverage drops below 3x and 4x, analyses suggest a significant boost in valuation, indicating that companies with leverage under 4x tend to trade nearly a full multiple point higher than those above that threshold. We anticipate reaching this target by the midpoint of the year, at which point we will have to deliberate with our board and possibly some investors about the best use of the next incremental dollar of free cash flow. Until we reach this target, we will be applying every dollar of free cash flow to debt reduction. However, once we hit 3x net and 4x gross, we should begin discussing whether to continue reducing debt overall or start returning some cash to shareholders, balancing the interests of equity and debt holders. Our aspiration to get down to 3x remains unchanged, as does our schedule to do so. I believe we will achieve this by mid-year, and the demand for even lower leverage from investors has become more evident. We will engage in discussions with our board and stakeholders at that time. I agree that our stock is undervalued, and if possible, we should consider buying some back.

Chris Senyek, Analyst

Yes, thanks. And then one more question kind of longer term strategic. In terms of when you did the kind of did the roadshow and were spun out, you had different long-term objectives for recurring revenue and the argument was that you'd get a higher multiple on the stock as the recurring revenue percentage went up. What's the outlook today and has it changed any just given the preference of customers for where you get to recurring revenue over the next couple of years?

Tim Oliver, CEO

Our recurring revenue performance is tracking close to our expectations, although we are slightly behind. Referring back to our models from a few years ago, we are behind on our ATM as a service revenue due to the adoption rate and our onboarding capabilities, which has impacted overall services growth. However, we believe this is just a lag in the model rather than a shift in our strategy, and we expect that the total value of our services to customers will ultimately represent a larger percentage of total revenue than initially projected. Additionally, transaction volumes are increasing, and we consider transaction revenues as recurring as well. Of all the metrics outlined in our five-year model, we anticipate that free cash flow and the percentage of revenue derived from recurring sources will remain on track.

Dominick Gabriele, Analyst

Thanks for the information. I wanted to ask about the outlook for free cash flow in light of the updated long-term targets you've provided. I understand that year-over-year free cash flow growth won't be linear, but how do you view the specific targets for free cash flow? Additionally, considering your adjusted free cash flow of $119 million in the recent quarter and the implications this may have for 2025, how do you foresee the sustainability of the increase in free cash flow to achieve your 2027 targets? Thank you.

Tim Oliver, CEO

Yes, we have limited options in managing cash flow, and it wasn't primarily about advancing revenue into the fourth quarter. We benefited from tax breaks due to legislative changes, and some expenses that were supposed to occur in 2024 were paid this quarter. There are only a few ways to improve free cash flow, such as enhancing working capital management, having capital expenditures that are lower than depreciation and amortization, or increasing profitability. I am confident we will see profitability growth over the coming years, targeting an 8% to 10% annual growth in EBITDA. If you project this forward, most of that growth should translate into free cash flow. We've mentioned that tax rates and cash tax rates are decreasing, which contributed significantly to our performance this year and will continue to support our model next year. Our interest expenses are expected to decrease, which is important since a substantial portion of these costs are not tax-deductible due to their size relative to our profitability. Any improvement in tax regulations or our ability to generate additional profitability will enhance deductibility and further boost cash flow. We have multiple levers available to us over time. We initially projected around $200 million in free cash flow for 2024, but now we are aiming for nearly $300 million, with $40 million of outperformance factored in. We're performing better in free cash flow than originally anticipated. In the first part of this year, we will need some cash for working capital as we ramp up hardware significantly, expecting about an $80 million increase in Q1 and Q2. It's essential to ensure timely delivery of goods. We collected well in the fourth quarter of last year, so there will be less to collect in the first quarter, but I expect similar performance in this year's fourth quarter. If you're viewing free cash flow as the fastest growing metric in our business for the next few years, you're absolutely right. Free cash flow growth will exceed growth in earnings per share and EBITDA quite significantly over the next several years. Great. Thank you for that. Thanks for everybody paying attention today. Paul, thank you. Andy, welcome. And look, we just completed a pretty remarkable year. And if my employees are listening, I expect many of them are. Thanks again. You killed it. You did a great job. I know we expect a lot of you going forward. I suspect you'll step right up to that challenge as well. We appreciate those investors who are along and tell all your friends, this is a good story. More people should be hearing it. So, thanks very much and we'll talk to you in ninety days.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's call.