Earnings Call Transcript - NDSN Q3 2025

Operator, Operator

Thank you all for being here today. Welcome to the Nordson Corporation Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Conference Call. I will now turn it over to Lara Mahoney. Lara, the floor is yours.

Lara L. Mahoney, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications

Good morning. This is Lara Mahoney, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. I'm here with Sundaram Nagarajan, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dan Hopgood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We welcome you to our conference call today, Thursday, August 21, to report Nordson's fiscal 2025 third quarter results. You can find both our press release as well as our webcast slide presentation that we will refer to during today's call on our website at www.nordson.com/investors. This conference call is being broadcast live on our investor website and will be available there for 30 days. During this conference call, we will make references to non-GAAP financial metrics. We've provided a reconciliation of these metrics to the most comparable GAAP metric in the press release issued yesterday. Before we begin, please refer to Slide 2 of our presentation, where we note that certain statements regarding our future performance that are made during this call may be forward-looking based upon Nordson's current expectations. These statements may involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors as discussed in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission that could cause actual results to materially differ. Moving to today's agenda on Slide 3, Naga will discuss third quarter highlights. He will then turn the call over to Dan to review sales and earnings performance for the total company and the three business segments. Dan will also discuss the balance sheet and cash flow. Naga will then share a high-level commentary about our enterprise performance and provide an update on the fiscal 2025 full year guidance. We will then be happy to take your questions. With that, I'll turn to Slide 4 and turn the call over to Naga.

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining Nordson's fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Conference Call. In the quarter, the Nordson team responded effectively to dynamic demand conditions in the key end markets. This generated sales of $742 million, which is above the midpoint of our guidance with solid contribution from both organic and inorganic growth. The Advanced Technology Solutions segment was a big contributor to this performance, delivering a second consecutive quarter of double-digit organic sales growth. Operational excellence drove strong profit performance, increasing adjusted earnings per share by 13%, and EBITDA by 15% compared to prior year. The third quarter was the final full quarter of Atrion's first year post-acquisition. As you will recall, we closed the Atrion acquisition on August 21, 2024, expanding Nordson's Medical portfolio into proprietary medical infusion fluid delivery and niche cardiovascular solutions. In the quarter, our employees again exceeded expectations and contributed to both sales and earnings results. This is the result of commercial scale that Nordson has brought to the business as well as the positive market acceptance of the product portfolio. Their operational performance reflects solid execution of the integration plan as well as the ongoing deployment of NBS Next. I would also like to highlight our free cash flow of $226 million and cash flow conversion of 180% of net income during the quarter. This represents record quarterly free cash flow and was driven by a focus on sustainable working capital improvements. We used this cash to reduce debt, repurchase shares and return dividends to the shareholders, all the while continuing to invest in the company. I will speak more about the enterprise performance in a few moments. But first, I'll turn the call over to Dan to provide detailed perspective on our financial results for the quarter.

Daniel R. Hopgood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Naga, and good morning, everyone. On Slide #5, you'll see third quarter fiscal 2025 sales of $742 million were up 12% from the prior year third quarter sales of $662 million. As Naga mentioned, the Atrion acquisition continues to perform above expectations and contributed 8% to our growth in the quarter. Total organic sales increased 2% and were up 3% if you exclude the medical contract manufacturing business that is now treated as held for sale. Our organic performance includes contributions from both our Advanced Technology and Medical and Fluid Solutions segments during the quarter. We also had a positive year-over-year currency impact of 2% in the quarter, adding to that performance. Gross profit in the third quarter was $407 million, a healthy and consistent 55% of sales. Our SG&A leverage improved year-over-year, leading to a 15% improvement in operating profit, adjusted for acquisition-related costs and amortization and charges associated with the exit of our medical contract manufacturing business. EBITDA was $239 million or 32% of sales. This represents a 15% increase in EBITDA dollars and a 70 basis point improvement over the prior year third quarter. EBITDA growth continues to benefit from strong incrementals in our ATS segment as well as contributions from the Atrion acquisition. It's worth noting that in a very dynamic trade environment, our margin performance remains consistent and is a continued strength of the company. Looking at nonoperating expenses, net interest expense was $26 million, an increase of $8 million versus the prior year, driven by higher year-over-year debt levels tied to the Atrion acquisition. Other expenses increased $3 million, primarily reflecting higher foreign exchange transactional losses compared to the prior year. And our tax expense on a U.S. GAAP basis was $33 million. This represents an elevated effective tax rate of 21% in the quarter and reflects discrete nondeductible charges, namely the write-down of allocated goodwill associated with the pending exit of the medical contract manufacturing business. Excluding this discrete item, our effective tax rate on an adjusted basis was 19% and remains in line with the low end of our guidance range for fiscal 2025. Net income in the quarter totaled $126 million or $2.22 per share. Excluding acquisition-related costs and amortization and charges associated with the exit of the medical contract manufacturing business, adjusted earnings per share totaled $2.73 per share, $0.08 above the midpoint of our quarterly guidance and a 13% increase from the prior year adjusted earnings per share of $2.41. This improvement in year-over-year earnings reflects strong operational execution on higher sales as well as accretive contribution from the Atrion acquisition. Now let's turn to Slides 6 through 8 to review the third quarter 2025 segment performance. Industrial Precision Solutions sales of $351 million increased 1% compared to the prior year third quarter. While improving sequentially from the second quarter, organic sales decreased 2% compared to the prior year, offset by a 3% favorable currency impact. Broad-based growth across the segment, in particular, double-digit growth in precision agriculture and nonwoven systems was offset by continued weakness in our polymer processing product lines, where we continue to see lower end market systems demand versus 2024. EBITDA for the segment was $130 million in the quarter or 37% of sales, essentially flat to the prior year. If you turn to Slide 7, you'll see Medical and Fluid Solutions sales of $219 million increased 32% compared to the prior year's third quarter. Growth was driven by the acquired Atrion business, which delivered $52 million in revenue in the quarter. Excluding the pending divestiture, organic sales increased 4% in the quarter, led by improvements in our medical fluid components and fluid solutions product lines. Importantly, sales in our interventional solutions business continued to improve sequentially from the second quarter as expected and were flat compared to the prior year as we continue to move past the recent destocking trends. EBITDA for Medical and Fluid Solutions was $83 million or 38% of sales, which was an increase of 34% from prior year EBITDA of $62 million. The increase was driven by strong conversion on Atrion sales and SG&A leverage in the core businesses. Turning to Slide 8. You'll see Advanced Technology Solutions sales were $171 million, a 17% increase compared to the prior year third quarter. The 15% organic sales increase was driven by double-digit growth in electronics dispense product lines, driven by demand across Asia Pacific as well as growth in our optical sensors and our measurement and controls businesses. This was partially offset by weakness in X-ray Inspection system sales during the quarter. Third quarter EBITDA was $42 million or 24% of sales, which represents an increase of 35% compared to the prior year third quarter EBITDA of $31 million or 21% of sales. The improvement in EBITDA margin was driven by strong operational execution on sales growth, representing a 42% conversion rate on incremental sales volume. Finally, turning to the balance sheet and cash flow on Page 9. At the end of the third quarter, we had cash on hand of $148 million and net debt was about $2 billion. Importantly, we continue to sequentially improve leverage quarter after quarter, driven by both EBITDA growth and a reduction in net debt, improving our leverage ratio from 2.5x at the start of the year to 2.2x at the end of the third quarter. Our free cash flow generation reached a record $226 million during the quarter, resulting in a 180% conversion rate on net income for the quarter and a year-to-date cash flow conversion rate of 140%. The strong cash conversion was driven by operational improvements in working capital, an area of emphasis in this dynamic environment. In the quarter, and in line with our balanced capital deployment strategy, we reduced net debt by over $100 million, repurchased over $70 million in shares, paid $44 million in dividends to our shareholders and spent $12 million on capital investments to continue driving organic growth. In summary, we had a strong operational quarter, and our team delivered on their commitments despite ongoing uncertainty in geopolitical and trade policies. While market conditions remain mixed for some of our businesses, we're well positioned to capitalize on profitable growth opportunities, and our operational execution continues to be a strength for the company. With that, let's turn to Slide 10, and I'll turn the call back to Naga.

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Dan. I'm very proud of the Nordson team and how they have been able to deliver for our customers in this dynamic environment. As highlighted on Slide 10, our strong growth portfolio, high recurring revenues, diversified niche end markets, close to the customer model, proprietary differentiated products and NBS Next framework positions us well for long-term growth. Turning to Slide 11, I'd like to take a few moments to talk about what we're seeing in the end markets as we enter our fiscal 2025 fourth quarter. Starting with our Industrial Precision Solutions segment, we continue to see sustaining investments in packaging and nonwoven end markets. Precision agriculture demand is improving in Europe and South America, given the strengthening demand for increasing yields and quality in these regional markets. Throughout the year, there has been weakness in our polymer processing systems, and we believe this business has hit its trough. Industrial Coating Solutions Systems are sequentially improving, but cold material product lines for automotive systems continue to be weak. Through it all, aftermarket parts remain a stable part of the IPS revenue portfolio, mitigating sales weakness and supporting margins. Overall, we expect the IPS segment to improve sequentially and return to normal growth rates as selected markets stabilize. In Medical, our core business is returning to growth. Throughout the year, our medical fluid component product lines have returned to high single-digit growth. The interventional solutions portfolio is normalizing after several quarters of de-stocking, and we expect this business to return to normal organic growth in fiscal 2026. The demand drivers fueling this end market, such as the aging population and shift toward noninvasive surgeries have not changed, and our Medical team has a healthy pipeline of customer projects. In ATS, this is our second consecutive quarter of double-digit organic growth. The work that our ATS team did to reposition our product portfolio and regional manufacturing has allowed us to be where our customers need us to be as supply chain shifts for electronics assembly. We're also winning share based on our ability to deliver products in incredibly short lead times. This would not have been possible before we holistically applied NBS Next. In addition to being located close to the customer, our products deliver leading productivity and quality in complex advanced packaging applications of semiconductors used for AI, cloud computing and more. Our applications are largely at the back end of the semiconductor packaging process, and we are experiencing that demand now. Demand in this business inherently is lumpy based on the needs and timing of our customers. Through the cycle, we expect long-term growth drivers will remain attractive while also appreciating that we will start to come up against tougher comparisons starting in the fourth quarter and that the automotive exposure within our electronics portfolio continues to be weak. Regardless of the end market dynamics, we have continuously demonstrated resilience and the ability to deliver solid growth and best-in-class profitability. Our NBS Next growth framework ensures new products are a growing source of organic growth and competitive advantage. I would like to highlight a few of them. The Nordson Spectrum S2 is the industry standard for electronics underfill applications, continues to win share in the market, particularly as customers move into new regions. Its quality, accuracy, and ease of use make it a trusted resource, and our teams continue to build upon its strong foundation for today's standards. Our Industrial Coatings business has launched the first of a multiyear platform rollout of new global controls for its powder coating systems. This new control system has a plug-and-play feature that would simplify operations and improve ease of use for our customers. Finally, I would like to highlight the new Nordson MEDICAL PharmaLok Zero clamp, which is a great example of the continued innovation in fluid components. This proprietary clamp ensures consistent sealing, eliminating leaks with any fittings on the market and improving assembly time for biopharma customers. We also remain focused on operational execution. As I mentioned earlier, we are very pleased with the integration of Atrion acquisition, which contributed to the adjusted earnings per share during the quarter – that is a year earlier than originally expected. We knew there were opportunities for operational efficiency when we acquired this business, and the team's holistic implementation of NBS Next has accelerated those benefits. In businesses where we are experiencing weaker customer demand, we have implemented targeted restructuring to adjust cost structures. These actions have been substantially completed and are expected to provide ongoing annual benefits of over $15 million by 2026. Our growth framework ensures we remain intentional about where we focus within our product portfolio. As we noted last quarter, we plan to divest the contract manufacturing portion of our medical device product line. That transaction is expected to close in the fiscal fourth quarter. Exiting these product lines will increase our focus on higher value proprietary medical components, including devices from the recent Atrion acquisition. Finally, as Dan mentioned earlier, a strong balance sheet allowed us to take advantage of the dynamic market conditions in the third quarter and accelerate share repurchases. Year-to-date, we have bought back $212 million in shares. I'm also pleased to share that our Board of Directors has approved a new authorization to repurchase $500 million in shares, bringing our total remaining authorization to approximately $800 million. In the quarter, we also reduced our leverage to 2.2x EBITDA, well within our long-term target. This demonstrates our ongoing commitment to a balanced capital deployment strategy. Turning now to outlook on Slide 13. Benefiting from the strong third quarter, we now expect to be slightly below the midpoint of our full year sales guidance, inclusive of the pending divestiture of our medical contract manufacturing business. On earnings, we expect to be slightly better than the midpoint of our full year guidance based upon our strong operational execution and ability to maintain margins in this dynamic environment. As always, I want to thank our customers and shareholders for your continued support. In particular, I want to thank our Nordson employees who are passionate about meeting the needs of our customers. Your efforts show. With that, we will pause and take your questions.

Operator, Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Jeffrey D. Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Jeffrey D. Hammond, Analyst

So I just wanted to get a better feel for what you're seeing from an order momentum standpoint across the businesses, particularly, I guess, ATS, where you've built some momentum and now you're talking about a little bit tougher comps. And then Medical, as we kind of get through the destocking and maybe just some color around the backlog down sequentially. Is that a function of timing or some air pockets in the order book?

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. We'll split it two ways here, Jeff. Let Dan first take the question around backlog initially, and then I'll give you sort of color of the end markets in a broader way. Dan, do you want to get started?

Daniel R. Hopgood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So I wouldn't overreact to the slight reduction in our backlog quarter-to-quarter. I think some of that is really a factor of strong shipments during the third quarter. What I would say in general, Jeff, is we're seeing good stability in order intake across our businesses. You asked particularly about Medical. I would say, we're seeing good ongoing activity in our Medical businesses. ATS, again, as I think Naga mentioned in some of the opening comments, tends to be a little more lumpy, but we are seeing overall, what I would call, good stable demand in all three of our businesses. I wouldn't overreact to the backlog decline. I think that's really a function of timing of shipments. And what I would say in general is we're seeing good stability underlying our order patterns.

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Okay. Let me give you a broad color of where we are seeing things and how it is showing up in our order entry, Jeff. Overall, as we look in to finish the end of the year based on our current order entry trends and backlogs, we are well positioned to deliver on the guidance, which is slightly below our midpoint for the revenue. That's sort of an overarching comment that I wanted to share with you. The second, if you go segment by segment, if you look at IPS, we see pretty strong and steady order entry in packaging, nonwoven end markets. Our precision ag demand is very strong. And remember, this is a European-based business. We are market leaders in Europe and in South America. Both markets are recovering nicely. For this business, order entry is looking pretty good there. PPS, which is our plastics business, still remains weak, but it has hit its trough. In our Industrial Coatings business, which is sort of the two system businesses that have been weak for the segment throughout the year. The powder systems side is pretty strong. But our automotive exposure here through cold materials remains weak. So IPS overall, other than the two system businesses, is in very good shape. If you think about MFS, the Medical segment, it is returning to growth. We have now had a couple of quarters of our medical fluid component business showing high single-digit growth. In our interventional component business, what you find is the de-stocking has normalized, and we expect to return to growth here. This quarter, it was flat. And without excluding our pending divestiture, this business would have had a 4% organic growth. And our Fluid Solutions division is doing fairly well. It is steady. This is a little bit related to electronic momentum in this business. In terms of ATS, continued strong order entry backlog, well positioned as we go into the fourth quarter. Look, this business, we have always shared with you, it is a lumpy business. But the momentum for this business in terms of both semiconductor packaging investments, high reliability electronics, PCBA, electronic equipment, is pretty strong and solid. And if you think about another new secular trend that is benefiting the company, particularly in ATS, is the redesign of supply chain by some of our customers. So semiconductor on track, electronic PCBA, high reliability ones are doing well. And then third, you have benefits coming from redesign of supply chain as people designed to derisk to account for tariffs. So overall, I'll close with what I told you at the beginning, which is backlog order entry is in a good place for us to deliver on the revenue guidance that we shared with you today.

Jeffrey D. Hammond, Analyst

Okay. And then just a follow-up on ATS. I mean I understand maybe some lumpiness timing in Q3 from Q4. And then maybe a tougher comp or maybe still an easy comp into Q4. But it still seems like we're coming out of a multiyear down cycle. And I just want to make sure I'm reading that right.

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, you are reading that correctly. We are emerging from a multiyear cycle, and growth has begun. We have experienced three or four quarters of growth, with one quarter being a decline. The way to view this is by looking at the nine months of ATS, which has grown by 8%. The first quarter was down, but the second quarter showed a nice increase, and the third quarter demonstrated a significant rise. So, considering all of this, yes, you are reading it right. We are at the beginning of a multiyear growth phase.

Daniel R. Hopgood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

The growth prospects for ATS are intact, and we don't see that changing in the near term.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Pesendorfer with Baird Equity Research.

Michael J. Pesendorfer, Analyst

Pez on for Mike. So I just want to follow up on Jeff's question on ATS here. We've heard some rumblings on pull forward in the semiconductor complex. And I just want to make sure that I'm reading your comments correctly. You're talking about an improvement in the cycle and things starting to take off. So help me understand your assumptions sequentially into the fourth quarter as it relates to ATS. And maybe help us with a little bit of color across dispense and T&I across Acoustic, X-ray, and 3D Optical.

Daniel R. Hopgood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

So regarding the pull-ahead comment, we don't have direct evidence. By direct evidence, I mean we're not receiving requests from customers to speed up orders or activities. There’s no clear indication from our customers wanting to pull things forward. The more complex aspect to consider is whether there is any inherent pull-ahead in the capital cycles. However, we are not observing any direct evidence or requests from customers to expedite anything. Looking across our businesses, we are experiencing broad-based demand in our electronics dispense products and consistent strong demand from our Acoustic and Optical products throughout the year. Based on our pipeline and activity, we don’t foresee any changes in this trend. As Naga mentioned, there could be some variability quarter-to-quarter with these capital cycles, but overall, we notice good stability in these markets.

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

A couple of things, Dan. Sorry to interrupt, but I want to add that in this business, what matters is new products, customer demands, and new applications. Nordson is strong in solving customers' problems. We have several new products being launched that meet the needs of increasingly complex chips made by our customers. We feel very positive about this business and our direction in the cycle. However, I want to remind you that there will be fluctuations in orders from quarter to quarter, and it's crucial for us to care for our customers when and where they need us. If you think about how Nordson succeeds, it’s through technology. New products are essential, but we have also established operational excellence as a core capability, which helps us gain market share when the opportunity arises. Additionally, our teams are highly agile. The third quarter exemplifies the agility of the entire Nordson team, especially the ATS team, in adapting to deliver exactly what the customer wanted, when and where they needed it. Overall, I feel very confident about our current position and our future trajectory.

Michael J. Pesendorfer, Analyst

That's super helpful color. I appreciate that, Dan and Naga. Maybe switching gears a little bit. Obviously, the balance sheet in great shape, the increase in the share repurchase authorization. Can you maybe comment a little bit on how you see the M&A funnel today? Where you're spending your time and the level of opportunity? Should we be reading the share repurchase authorization as the M&A funnel maybe being a little bit tougher? Or is that more of just a broad-based comment on how you're approaching capital allocation?

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

We have committed to a balanced capital allocation strategy, which we are implementing throughout this year. Recently, we saw an opportunity in the market that encouraged us to buy back shares. To date, we have repurchased approximately $212 million in shares, and the new authorization provides us with additional flexibility for the remainder of the year. Regarding mergers and acquisitions, our pipeline is healthy, and we are actively pursuing opportunities. However, we will remain disciplined in our approach to acquiring strategic assets and the financial aspects associated with them. Our acquisition strategy has not changed; we can only act when opportunities arise in the market. Reflecting on our recent acquisition of Atrion, it has been a success story, and we are now EPS accretive a year ahead of projections. Our approach to acquisitions continues to be balanced, and over the next few years, you will see a combination of organic growth and acquisitions. The new share repurchase authorization does not indicate a shift in our acquisition strategy.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Edward Magi with BNP Paribas.

Edward James Magi, Analyst

This is Ed on for Andrew. The latest sales guidance for slightly below the midpoint seems to be slightly better than your prior guidance of saying low end, but that commentary from Q1, Q2 came from when tariffs have been maybe weighing a little bit more on sentiment. And after the solid Q3, wondering if you guys could have perhaps improved the outlook a little bit more with today's tariff situation looking a little bit better than it did during those prior guidance.

Daniel R. Hopgood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I appreciate the question. I'll start with a recap. We had a slow start to the year, with first quarter sales being softer than expected. At that time, we indicated that we would be on the lower end of our sales revenue guidance. However, after completing a strong third quarter, it's fair to say that we have slightly improved our outlook, although we are still below the midpoint. This also takes into account the sale of our CDMO business in the fourth quarter. Considering all of this, you are correct in noting the slight improvement in our sales outlook, which is mainly driven by our Q3 performance. At this point, we feel very comfortable maintaining our outlook for the fourth quarter.

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

And I think just as a reminder, think about the economic environment that we are living in. It is still a very dynamic environment with a number of uncertainties still out there. Sure, the tariff situation, we continue to gain clarity every day. But it's still uncertain. That's sort of what we see in our customers' behavior. So the way we are thinking about it is, look, dynamic environment, Nordson fully participating in market momentum where it exists and delivering one quarter at a time. And that has served us well and will continue to serve us well in this environment. So...

Edward James Magi, Analyst

Yes. Very helpful. And then an unrelated follow-up. With regard to the divestiture charges, are you able to unpack what went into that $12 million? And then is there anything else we can expect to see in the fourth quarter, assuming that closes on track?

Daniel R. Hopgood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

The charge of approximately $12.2 million primarily involves adjusting the business to its estimated fair value minus selling costs, pending the deal's actual close in the fourth quarter. It also includes some minor restructuring charges related to finalizing and exiting a few smaller segments of the business. I would consider this a one-time charge. The exact closing and the value will depend on the final working capital and adjusting a few items, but I don't anticipate any significant change from the $12.2 million when we finalize the deal in the fourth quarter.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Walter S. Liptak with Seaport Research Partners.

Walter S. Liptak, Analyst

So in the ATS segment, there was some good discussion and Naga you brought up new product development. And I wonder if we can try and tie something together. AI is a fairly powerful new technology. And you have a lot of exposure on the consumer side, not just automotive, but a whole bunch of consumer products that have electronics. Are you seeing your consumer products companies start to do redesign where they can make smart products that leverage the AI tech?

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Look, AI is still evolving for many of our customers. And in terms of our own view of AI, we are certainly very bullish in terms of what it brings in terms of value to the customers as well as ourselves. Yes, we do see people wanting to figure out how to use AI and how to create value. The way we think about value is really for AI is three things. One, it starts with customer value creation. We have a couple of ideas, I would say, at this stage. It is more ideas that we are working on that will allow our customers to use our own products in a much more effective, much more productive ways. And particularly we have new software subscription services in our X-ray business. Very early stages, very early stages. But super exciting as to how our teams are beginning to use AI to create value. In terms of AI for our own customers using them and how they will use our products, very early stages. Hope that answers your question, Walter.

Walter S. Liptak, Analyst

Okay. Yes, it does. And just switching gears to IPS. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the quote-to-order cycle. There's been like this pause going on because of all of the headwinds that we all know about. Are you seeing any improvement in kind of maybe the lifting of the pause?

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Are you asking about people's sentiments regarding ordering or placing orders for systems? Is that correct?

Walter S. Liptak, Analyst

Yes. For larger systems, it just seems like generally, there's a reluctance to put capital to work just because of the tariffs specifically and not knowing what the rules are going to be.

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. If you look at our IPS business, the majority of it, around 60% to 70%, seems to be in a relatively good position regarding incoming orders. For areas like packaging, nonwovens, and product assembly, where we have about 50% system sales, we don’t see significant slowdowns. Overall, we are performing adequately. However, in our Plastic Processing and Industrial Coatings businesses, we do observe slowdowns from our customers. Order entry for systems is subdued, but our customer pipeline remains strong. No one in that pipeline is indicating they no longer want our products; the issue is that orders are not being placed. For larger system orders, we are noticing that customers are postponing their order placements, indicating some caution on their part.

Daniel R. Hopgood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. And just to add maybe one more piece of color, I would say, in plastics, in particular, we have seen some rebuilding of that pipeline, certainly from earlier in the year. So we are seeing activity back up or rebound. I think Naga made the comment. We feel that, that business has hit the trough. We are seeing that in our backlog, certainly not at levels that we've seen in prior years yet, but we are seeing recovery in order activity, although we are also seeing some of our pipeline activity get pushed out.

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. It's important to note that IPS has significant recurring revenue, roughly split evenly. When considering system parts, a large portion of the IPS segment is in fairly strong condition. The large system businesses are facing order challenges, but they're beginning to recover, and the situation isn't worsening, aside from the small automotive exposure in ICS, which remains weak. Overall, when you take everything into account, we feel optimistic about our current position regarding order entry and backlog, which supports our revenue guidance.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brad Hewitt with Wolfe Research.

Bradley Thomas Hewitt, Analyst

So it seems like your outlook is for organic sales to be flat to slightly down year-over-year in Q4. I think that would imply a little bit of a deceleration on a three-year stack basis. I know ATS has a tough comp in Q4, but maybe any additional color on what's driving that expected deceleration in Q4 would be helpful.

Daniel R. Hopgood, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. To your point, if we examine a few of our businesses, particularly our systems segment, we're facing tough year-end comparisons, with plastics being one example. When we look at our guidance sequentially, we're seeing a slight increase from Q3 to Q4, indicating that we're continuing to gain sales momentum. Year-over-year, Q4 presents a more challenging comparison for some of our systems businesses, which is reflected in the growth rate. However, there isn't a significant deceleration from our previous performance; our guidance suggests a modest increase in the fourth quarter compared to Q3. Year-over-year growth is a bit more subdued, primarily due to the demand and deliveries we experienced in the systems segment last fourth quarter.

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, look, this is a business, we have repositioned the business during the downturn at the last downturn. And so what you're experiencing right now is a pretty strong incremental performance, which is a little bit better than the rest of the company. At the current revenue run rates, the 24% seems reasonable, but I wouldn't go any further than that because remember, this is a business that depends on new products and continuous investment in new products. So here, the SG&A load is far greater than everywhere else. Our investments in new products are more like 14%, 15% of revenue, which is very different from our other businesses. So I wouldn't want you to get too far ahead of ourselves here, but the 24% EBITDA, 24%, 25% seems reasonable.

Operator, Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Naga for closing remarks.

Sundaram Nagarajan, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you for your time and attention on today's call. We have several upcoming investor events where our team would be happy to meet with you, including the Jefferies Industrial Conference in New York on September 4, the Morgan Stanley Annual Laguna Conference on September 10, and an upcoming virtual road show with Loop Capital on October 13. Nordson is well positioned in this dynamic environment. Our close to the customer model, proprietary and niche technology, diversified geographic and end market exposure, high level of recurring revenue, and a strong balance sheet are among many attributes that make us a quality compounder. Have a great day.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.