Earnings Call Transcript - NGD Q2 2025

Operator, Operator

Good morning. My name is Jean-Louis, and I will be your conference operator today. Welcome to the New Gold Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call and Webcast. Please be advised that today's conference call and webcast is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to Ankit Shah, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development. Thank you.

Ankit Shah, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development

Thank you, Jean-Louis, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today for New Gold's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. On the line today, we have Patrick Godin, President and CEO; Keith Murphy, CFO; and Travis Murphy, Vice President of Operations. In addition, we have Luke Buchanan, Vice President of Technical Services; and Jean Francois Ravenelle, Vice President of Geology, available to assist during the question-and-answer portion at the end of the call. Should you wish to follow along with the webcast, please sign in from our web homepage at newgold.com. Before the team begins the presentation, I would like to direct your attention to our cautionary language related to forward-looking statements found on Slide 2 of the presentation. Today's commentary includes forward-looking statements relating to New Gold. In this respect, we refer you to our detailed cautionary note regarding forward-looking statements in the presentation. You are cautioned that actual results and future events could differ materially from those expressed or implied in forward-looking statements. Slide 2 provides additional information and should be reviewed. We also refer you to the section entitled Risk Factors in New Gold's latest AIF, MD&A and other filings, which set out certain material factors that could cause actual results to differ. In addition, at the conclusion of the presentation, there are a number of end notes that provide important information and should be reviewed in conjunction with the material presented. Slide 4 highlights some of the key accomplishments during the second quarter. Through the first half of 2025, we have made excellent progress on advancing and completing many of the objectives presented at the beginning of the year. Safety, highlighted by our Courage to Care, continues to be a focus and strength for the company. During the quarter, we delivered a low total recordable injury frequency rate of 0.82, continuing the downward trend over the last 3 years. New Afton was awarded 3 safety awards during the second quarter for exemplary safety performance in 2024. The awards received included the J.T. Ryan Regional award for British Columbia and Yukon, British Columbia's safest large underground mine, and British Columbia's Mine Safety Innovation Award. In the second quarter, New Afton also won British Columbia's Underground Mine Rescue Championship, and the Rainy River Mine won the Thunder Bay District Mine Rescue Championship, a true testament to our commitment to health and safety. During the quarter, the company produced approximately 78,600 ounces of gold and 13.5 million pounds of copper at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,393 per ounce. Gold production for the first half of the year was about 38% of the midpoint of the consolidated production guidance range of 325,000 to 365,000 ounces of gold, consistent with the planned 38% stated in the February outlook. The company generated more than $163 million in cash flow from operations and achieved a record of $63 million in free cash flow. Rainy River also reported a quarterly record of $45 million in free cash flow. The company made significant progress on initiatives aligned with its 3-year production growth and accomplished several key milestones during the quarter. At New Afton, C-Zone cave construction is now approximately 65% complete, supporting the progressive increase in processing rates towards the target of 16,000 tonnes per day by early 2026. An important development milestone was also achieved in May with the completion of undercutting, unlocking the remaining extraction drives for development and construction. At Rainy River, the pit portal breakthrough was achieved in early April. Subsequently, completion of the ODM East ventilation loop and commissioning of the fresh arrays were accomplished later in the quarter. These key milestones are expected to facilitate increased underground development and production rates. Our exploration initiatives made significant progress during the quarter, highlighted by record activity at New Afton. Following the completion of the C-Zone extraction level exploration drift, current efforts are concentrated on K-Zone. At Rainy River, work is advancing on the Northwest trend open pit zone as well as upgrading the underground ore inventory. We plan to provide an exploration update in September. In April, it was announced that New Gold would acquire the remaining 19.9% free cash flow interest at New Afton, consolidating our interest to 100%. In summary, we achieved the planned objectives for the first half of 2025 with a continued focus on generating meaningful value for our shareholders. With that, I will now turn the call over to Travis.

Travis Murphy, Vice President, Operations

Thank you, Ankit. I'm on Slide 6, which has our operating highlights. As Ankit noted, Q2 delivered production and costs on plan. Production totaled approximately 78,600 gold ounces and 13.5 million pounds of copper. This increase in gold production compared to Q2 2024 was driven by planned higher feed grade at Rainy River, partially offset by lower planned feed grade at New Afton. Consolidated all-in sustaining costs for the quarter were $1,393 per gold ounce on a byproduct basis, in line with Q2 2024, but a substantial improvement over the first quarter of 2025. Costs will continue to trend down throughout the year as production increases. New Afton delivered an excellent quarter as the B3 cave continued to overdeliver compared to the plan set out at the beginning of the year. As a result, New Afton achieved an all-in sustaining cost of negative $537 per ounce after considering the copper credit. Rainy River delivered on plan as a mill transitioned from low-grade stockpile material to processing higher grade open pit ore. All-in sustaining costs were $1,696 per ounce in the quarter, a substantial improvement compared to the first quarter. Costs should continue to trend lower throughout the year as production ramps up. Our total capital expenditures for the quarter were approximately $92 million, with $34 million spent on sustaining capital and $58 million spent on growth capital. At New Afton, sustaining capital is primarily related to mobile equipment, while growth capital is primarily related to construction, mine development, tailings, and machinery and equipment. At Rainy River, the sustaining capital is primarily related to open pit stripping and tailings facility expansion, while growth capital relates to underground development and machinery and equipment. Turning to the assets, starting with New Afton on Slide 7. New Afton delivered another strong quarter. The B3 cave continued to overdeliver, and C-Zone ore production continued its ramp-up following commercial production and crusher commissioning early in the fourth quarter of 2024. Through the first 6 months of the year, production represented approximately 54% and 49% of the midpoint of guidance of 60,000 to 70,000 ounces of gold, and 50 million to 60 million pounds of copper, respectively, higher than the first half guidance provided in February due to the P3 outperformance. The B3 cave is now expected to exhaust in the middle of the third quarter, and annual production is expected to be in line with the guidance profile previously provided. With increased production at a lower cost, New Afton generated an impressive $33 million in free cash flow while continuing to complete the construction of the C-Zone block cave. Through the first half of 2025, New Afton has generated over $85 million in free cash flow. In terms of development, the C-Zone cave construction continues to advance on schedule. Undercutting was completed in May, which consisted of the last stage of production blasting and mucking and was a significant milestone achieved in the development timeline. Cave construction progress is 64% complete as of the end of June. C-Zone remains on track to ramp up to full processing capacity of approximately 16,000 tonnes per day beginning in 2026. Turning now to Rainy River on Slide 8. Gold production in the second quarter was 61,600 ounces of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,696 per gold ounce sold. The first 6 months of production represented approximately 34% of the midpoint of guidance of 265,000 to 295,000 ounces of gold, slightly behind the first half guidance of 37%. This was driven by a 1-week delay in the sequencing of the higher-grade open pit material in May, which led to an increase of approximately 5,900 ounces of gold in circuit inventory at the end of the quarter. What this effectively means is we mined and processed the 5,900 ounces but were unable to pour into our final product by the quarter end, which would have translated to a consolidated production of approximately 84,000 ounces of gold. Production was substantially higher than the first quarter as we successfully transitioned from stockpile ore and started processing the higher grade open pit ore. As Ankit mentioned at the top of the call, June was a record production month with over 37,300 ounces produced at an average grade of 1.44 grams per tonne. The mill also demonstrated the ability to process higher-grade material at high throughput rates, with over 40% of the days in June processing over 30,000 tonnes per day. As a result of the increased production, Rainy River generated a quarterly record $45 million in free cash flow. Following the successful breakthrough of the pit portal in early April, the Rainy River underground mine achieved another important milestone with fresh air raise commissioning and the completion of the ODM East ventilation loop. Underground development and stope production from several new mining zones can now progress as they come online in late 2025. To sum up, we made excellent progress in the second quarter and remain on track to deliver our 2025 stated objectives. With that, I'll turn the call over to Keith.

Keith Murphy, CFO

Thanks, Travis. Our financial results can be found on Slide 10. Second quarter revenue was $308 million, higher than the prior year quarter due to higher gold prices and gold sales, slightly offset by lower copper prices and sales. Cash generated from operations before working capital adjustments was $161 million or $0.20 per share for the quarter, higher than the prior year period, primarily due to higher revenues. New Gold generated a record quarterly free cash flow of $63 million as higher revenue was only partially offset by the higher capital expenditures as key growth projects were advanced. The company recorded net earnings of approximately $68 million or $0.09 per share during the second quarter. After adjusting for certain other charges, net earnings was $90 million or $0.11 per share in Q2. Our Q2 adjusted earnings include adjustments related to other gains and losses and other nonrecurring items. Turning to our balance sheet on Slide 11. At the end of Q2, we had cash on hand of $226 million and a liquidity position of $452 million. Post quarter, the remaining $111 million of the 2027 senior notes was redeemed as planned and previously announced and paid forward cash in hand. In order to fund the New Afton buyback transaction announced back in April, $150 million of the credit facility was drawn in the quarter, and a gold prepayment was entered into in mid-April. The company has agreed to deliver approximately 2,770 ounces of gold per month over the July 2025 to June 2026 period at an average price of $3,157 per gold ounce. To sum up, we are in a very healthy financial position with a significant free cash flow profile ahead of us. With that, I'll turn the call to Pat.

Patrick Godin, President and CEO

Thanks, Keith. Touching on exploration briefly, I'm on Slide 3. The New Afton exploration program centered on K-Zone and nearby targets is currently at an all-time high with one surface drill targeting the K-zone trend along strike and six underground drills actively targeting the core of the zone and testing its footprint. With the C-zone level exploration to have complete in the Afton level we completed last year, we now have two distinct exploration drifts separated by more than 400 meters in elevation to better explore and infill K-Zone. At Rainy River, the company is advancing open pit and underground exploration in parallel. During Q2, this includes drilling the Northwestern open pit zone to infill part of the inferred resources and test potential pit extension. Exploration drilling also focused on testing underground ore growth opportunities at ODM Main from surface. We continued our work on open pit expansion studies with the goal of keeping the mill fully utilized for longer. As shown, studies on underground mine design and optimization also continued to make progress. As I have said previously, we expect continued and significant growth in gold and copper production over the next 3 years. The second quarter performance was an excellent indication of the expected trajectory to come. As production volumes increase, the unit cost per ounces of gold is projected to decrease substantially. As a result, we continue to expect to generate significant free cash flow over the next 3 years. At current consensus commodity prices, this translates to approximately USD 1.86 billion in free cash flow over that period. At current spot prices, the figure exceeds $2.5 billion over 70% of our market cap. In closing, the second quarter was positive for New Gold as we continue to deliver on our stated strategic goals. We will continue to build on these goals from here. This includes delivering on 2025 production and cost guidance with the same attention to health and safety. Our continuous improvement with our TRIFR performance is a direct indicator of the support from our employees and colleagues for the Courage to Care culture. At New Afton, we will ramp up C-Zone and advance the development of the East extension. At Rainy River, we will continue to ramp up the underground mining Phase 4 and advance Phase 5 open pit development. Lastly, we are continuing to increase our exploration efforts at both sites with a combined $30 million of investment for 2025, targeting further reserve replacement. New Gold offers a compelling investment opportunity with increasing production and significant free cash flow generation combined with our safe, well-established mining practices, increasingly compelling exploration upside, and exposure to what we view as preferred metal in gold and copper. We are confident in our ability to deliver additional upside. The remainder of 2025 will continue to build from here, both operationally and with project and exploration catalysts, which are expected to create meaningful value for our shareholders and provide increased financial flexibility and optionality for New Gold moving forward. This completes our presentation. I will now turn it back to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call.

Operator, Operator

Your first question comes from the line of Lawson Winder of Bank of America.

Lawson Winder, Analyst

Can I please start off by asking for a little additional color on the split in production between Q3 and Q4 of 2025?

Patrick Godin, President and CEO

So mostly in Q3, Q4, we are targeting to have the same production mostly.

Lawson Winder, Analyst

And is that consistent across both Rainy and New Afton in terms of gold?

Patrick Godin, President and CEO

Yes, regarding gold, Rainy will generate most of the cash because we are producing a lot of gold as planned. We are also ramping up New Afton. We will exhaust the B3 cave and ramp up C-Zone, and we remain on track to produce the metal we forecast in our guidance.

Lawson Winder, Analyst

Okay. With regards to reserves and resources, just looking toward year-end and first of all, I guess, just generally, do you expect to replace reserves in 2025? And then a little more specifically with the Northwestern resource conversion to indicated. Do we expect that to show up in reserves and resources? And then just thinking about gold price assumption, year-end 2024 was $1,650. We're nearly double that now $1,980, I think you guys used for resources. How are you thinking about a gold price assumption for calculating reserves and resources at year-end?

Patrick Godin, President and CEO

Yes. Regarding New Afton, our goal this year is to enhance our indicated resources to ultimately convert them into probable reserves or complete a feasibility study. This involves ensuring we have enough drilling to transform resources into reserves with studies projected for 2026. For Rainy River, our aim is to finalize the definition drilling to reclassify the Northwest trend and incorporate that into our reserves. We also have promising targets on site, and our strategy is to boost reserves in areas where we've already planned infrastructure, which will help reduce capital expenditures and enhance the company's net asset value. While we may not renew all that we have mined at Rainy River, the significant contributions we do see will be valuable. Additionally, every year we benchmark against our peers concerning gold prices. We're not arbitrarily deciding a price from management; rather, we analyze industry trends. Given the current consensus, we have a good chance of seeing a price increase, potentially reaching around $1,900 to $2,000, which aligns with industry expectations. Ultimately, this can add value for our shareholders at Rainy River.

Lawson Winder, Analyst

Okay. And if I could just squeeze in one more question. Thinking about your capital allocation priorities vis-a-vis the very strong expected inflection higher in free cash flow. Is there any thought to being active or putting in place a buyback, thought about a dividend? Where are the priorities vis-a-vis those two options and debt repayment? And then if you could just comment on your thoughts on acquisitions. So does it remain a strategic objective to add a third core asset?

Ankit Shah, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development

Shareholder returns are something we definitely consider. At the end of the year, we had over $200 million in cash. After the quarter, we reduced our debt from the original bond offering, which decreased our cash balance. We still have $150 million available on our credit facility, which we plan to pay down by year-end. We're also advancing two major projects, including the C-Zone underground development and a back-weighted exploration program. Our current focus is on internal growth and organic development. As we approach a free cash flow inflection point towards the end of the year, shareholder returns will be a priority. Regarding mergers and acquisitions, as mentioned in previous calls, our best transaction was consolidating New Afton last year, acquiring an asset we own at below 1x NAV amidst rising gold prices. We will keep assessing other opportunities that could enhance New Gold's profile, but we will approach our M&A strategy with caution.

Michael Siperco, Analyst

A quick question on New Afton. With the B-Zone being extended, can you just clarify on how we should expect the transition to primary C-Zone mining to go? And is there a transition period? Or should we just see a smooth uptick in throughput and grade? And sort of when does that manifest in the second half?

Patrick Godin, President and CEO

We are very satisfied with the developments in B3, which result from our careful draw management amidst the blockade we are facing. We always prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. The outlook for B3 is promising since we are seeing less dilution than we anticipated. This is advantageous as it indicates a good grade for us. While the C-Zone's timeline remains unchanged, the extra tonnage from B3 will extend its mine life. Initially, we planned the C-Zone with the aim of optimizing recovery, recognizing that the lower part of C-Zone has a grade that is below the average grade of the overall block cave. Our plans for metal production in 2025 remain intact. We do not anticipate changing our metal production guidance for Q4 2025, as the extension of the B3 mine life is actually beneficial. Our goal is to accelerate C-Zone mining in a way that optimizes draw management, leading to a flatter cave profile rather than a more aggressive approach in the center. Overall, the additional tonnage from B3 is extremely positive for us.

Michael Siperco, Analyst

Great. That makes sense, puts it in good context. One more question for me, if I could, and then I'll pass it on. On M&A, broadly speaking, I guess, the quarterly update, if you can provide one, but with the consolidation of New Afton now out of the way and also the, I think, substantial organic growth potential at New Afton, which is set to maybe get some more visibility over the next 6 to 12 months. How are you thinking about growth now versus maybe exiting Q1?

Patrick Godin, President and CEO

We had a strong M&A in Q2 with Teachers, which we're very proud of, and you'll soon understand why we were so enthusiastic about consolidating our assets. It was the best M&A opportunity for us. As my colleague mentioned, our primary focus is on organic growth because it's within our control and allows us to create significant value for shareholders without needing substantial capital investment. We're actively seeking new opportunities, and we believe that the cash flow we generate can enhance shareholder value. If we fail to find investment opportunities for our shareholders, as Ankit pointed out, we will have to return capital to them. Overall, we are disciplined in our strategy. My colleagues and I are committed to not just expanding for the sake of being bigger but to become better. We're putting in a lot of effort to generate cash flow, and we want to protect that. While we remain diligent and vigilant in our approach, we continue to explore possibilities.

Operator, Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anita Soni of CIBC.

Anita Soni, Analyst

Most of my questions have been asked and answered, but I just wanted to understand on Rainy River, I think you said there was a week delay in some of the high-grade material in the open pit. Is the expectation that you'll get that back in the second half of the year?

Patrick Godin, President and CEO

Yes. We are maintaining our guidance, and it will not change for the year.

Anita Soni, Analyst

Okay. And so you're in the sort of middle end or so like your expectations are still intact is what I'm trying to say.

Patrick Godin, President and CEO

Yes. What Travis explained is that we produce these ounces, but we're not able to extract them from the circuit at the end of the quarter. That's primarily what happened. If not, we are going to deliver what we have. It wasn't in a bar; it was in solutions or a less favorable form. However, we expect this to materialize in the second half of the year. We plan to provide an update in the first half of September regarding our exploration activities at both sites. Our goal is to enhance our geological understanding by increasing the amount of drilling we conduct, with the aim of presenting the inferred resources in the K-Zone for the 2026 reserve and resource report for the first time.

Michael Siperco, Analyst

Most of my questions have been answered, but just following up on Rainy River and the strong performance in June with the 37,000 ounces at 1.44 grams per ton. Can you maybe give us some color into the grade profile into the second half of the year, please?

Patrick Godin, President and CEO

Yes. So the grade profile for the second half of the year is yes.

Keith Murphy, CFO

So with the transition to that steady feed grade that we've seen in June, we can expect a similar high profile, a similar grade profile in the back half of the year in order to come into that guidance range. So the majority of the feed, just as a reminder, is coming from the open pit, and that will bring us in line with the guidance range for the end of the year.

Ankit Shah, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development

Well, we can follow up post-call as well with more detailed discussion in the second half.

Patrick Godin, President and CEO

Mohamed, we are confident because last year we faced some reconciliation issues, and we implemented a new model. Currently, myself, Jean-François, and his team at the mine site have developed this new model, applying a cap of 3 grams per tonne on the high grade. We tested this high-grade zone in Q2 and achieved excellent reconciliation. Therefore, we are very optimistic about the second half of the year. We expect to conclude the year with a 3 million tonne ore stockpile at Rainy River. For the pit I’m referring to, the strip ratio going forward will be 1:1 this year in Phase 4, positioning us well to execute and mitigate risks. We believe Travis's arrival is timely and beneficial.

Operator, Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to pass it back to Ankit and the team for closing remarks.

Ankit Shah, Executive Vice President of Strategy and Business Development

Great. Thank you very much, and thank you to everyone who joined us today. As always, should you have any additional questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to us by phone or e-mail. Have a great day.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.