Earnings Call Transcript - NOAH Q3 2025

Doreen Chiu, Investor Relations

Good morning, afternoon and evening, and welcome to Noah Holdings Limited Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Doreen Chiu, the company's Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Zander Yin, CEO

Thank you, Doreen. Good morning to everyone, and thank you for joining us today. During the quarter, we are seeing three very clear trends emerge. First, despite ongoing revenue pressure, our profitability and margins improved significantly with non-GAAP net income increasing by over 50% year-on-year. Second, investment products have seen accelerated growth and are accounting for a larger share of new revenue. And lastly, key initiatives, including the establishment of four overseas booking centers and the rollout of AI-related projects have transitioned from planning to actual implementation. These three trends give us greater confidence that our transformation strategy is making solid progress. Financially, net revenues for the third quarter reached RMB 633 million, down slightly year-on-year, but up sequentially, marking the second consecutive quarter of sequential growth. The year-on-year revenue decline was mainly due to continued softness in both domestic and overseas insurance businesses, in line with our expectations that 2025 to 2026 would be a period of revenue mix adjustment. Notably, our revenue mix continues to improve significantly, driven by growing investment product revenues, which accounted for approximately 28% during the quarter compared to 18% a year ago, a clear improvement compared to the same period last year and something we will continue to focus on going forward. As a result, our bottom line delivered a solid performance with non-GAAP net income for the third quarter up more than 50% year-on-year to RMB 229 million. This brings non-GAAP net income for the first three quarters of 2025 to RMB 587 million, a clear reflection of the results our prudent investment strategy and cost controls are delivering. Performance of our overseas and domestic operations are each following distinct trends. For overseas operations, it has maintained a pattern of strong investment product growth and soft insurance product distribution. Net revenues from our overseas wealth management business were RMB 146 million in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7% due primarily to a decline in revenue contribution from the distribution of insurance products. Sequentially, however, revenues were up 13%. By the end of third quarter, overseas AUA reached USD 9.3 billion, up 6.8% year-on-year. Notably, transaction value of USD-denominated private secondary products in the first three quarters increased nearly 2.5x year-on-year to USD 688 million. Net revenues from Olive, the overseas asset management, were RMB 118 million in the third quarter, up 8.6% sequentially, driven primarily by growth in AUM and recurring service fees. By the end of third quarter, overseas AUM was USD 5.9 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year. Net revenues from Glory Family Heritage, which provides overseas insurance and comprehensive services, were RMB 47 million in the third quarter, up 19.8% year-on-year. While investment services remain our core focus, we shall continue to serve clients with insurance products through our capital-light commission-only broker model. On the domestic side, we are seeing strong momentum in the secondary market, a continued focus on exits in the primary market, and the insurance segment entering an adjustment phase. For Noah Upright, our domestic public securities business, continued to benefit from a rebound in the Asia market. Transaction value for RMB-denominated private secondary products in the first three quarters grew 206% year-on-year to RMB 8.97 billion. Net revenues from domestic public securities for the third quarter were RMB 116 million, up 8.7% year-on-year and underscoring the strategic direction we are headed in with growing AUA and expanding investment capabilities. Net revenues from domestic asset management, Gopher, were RMB 189 million in the third quarter, up 4.9% year-on-year as it maintained stable profitability and continues to facilitate exits from existing assets. Net revenues from domestic insurance business, Glory, were RMB 5 million in the third quarter, down 44.8% year-on-year. The pace of the fall in net revenues was in line with our planned pace of consolidation and transformation of the domestic insurance business. Overall, the rebalancing of our overseas and domestic operations is making solid progress, with investment product growth increasingly acting as a new growth driver. In the third quarter, we continue to make solid progress in our overseas expansion with the establishment of four booking centers, which form the foundation of our global operational system. In the United States, we officially obtained a U.S. broker-dealer license and will continue to steadily build our business there in accordance with local regulatory requirements. In Singapore, we continue to strengthen our capabilities and build out our team. While in Hong Kong and Shanghai, we continue to serve as a core hub for operations, compliance, and support systems. Our global operations framework is gradually improving, providing an important foundation for future cross-regional client services and asset allocation. AI is a disruptive force in the wealth management industry with immense future potential and serves as our second strategic growth driver for the future. Over the past few months, we have begun implementing our AI RM + AI operations system plan. Initial pilots were launched during the quarter to improve client outreach, content generation, and back-end operations as well as cross-departmental collaboration in Singapore specifically. In the latest update to our app, we officially launched our AI RM, Noah, providing clients with deeper engagement and interaction. I want to emphasize, however, AI is not simply a concept for us. It is an institutionalized operational capability. We will continue to develop AI capabilities across the entire value chain in a steady and pragmatic manner. Looking ahead, we remain firmly committed to advancing our three core strategies: First, strengthening our core capabilities in investment product selection, fundraising and co-investment to increase the proportion of investment products in our revenue mix, drive product innovation, and create a differentiated competitive advantage. Second, establishing AI as our second strategic growth driver by strengthening the development and deployment of AI tools across relationship management operations and investment research to firmly embed it into our organizational DNA and operational system. And lastly, leveraging our full emphasis booking centers as a foundation for a globally coordinated service platform that delivers a consistent wealth management experience to global Chinese clients. At the same time, we will continue to maintain prudent operations and drive quality growth striving to improve shareholder returns by improving capital efficiency, maximizing cost structure, and strengthening cash flow. We'll continuously enhance our competitiveness in market share in the global Chinese wealth management market. Thank you. Now I'll hand over to our CFO, Grant, to provide a detailed overview of the group's financial performance.

Grant Pan, CFO

Thank you, Zander, for the comprehensive strategy and market overview, and warm greetings to everyone joining us today. For those of you in the United States, happy Thanksgiving and holiday season. I also want to introduce the AI RM, Noah, which actually provided the English translation just now, if you have noticed. I'm very pleased to share Noah's financial performance for the third quarter of 2025 and resource allocation priorities from a financial perspective. During this quarter, we delivered solid profitability supported by prudent investment decisions and disciplined cost management. Non-GAAP net income reached RMB 229 million, up 52.2% year-over-year and 21.2% sequentially, with a margin of 36.2%. For the first nine months of 2025, non-GAAP net income totaled RMB 587 million, a 40.5% increase from the same period last year. This was achieved despite a 7.4% year-over-year decline in total net revenues for the quarter as we continue to optimize our revenue structure. Total revenue for the third quarter was RMB 633 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline primarily driven by lower insurance income amid intensified competition in both domestic and overseas insurance markets. Yet it still recorded modest sequential improvement overall, marking our second consecutive quarter of growth. Total transaction value remained high at RMB 17 billion, maintaining the same elevated level as the previous quarter and rising 19.1% year-over-year. RMB-denominated products increased 28.7% year-over-year, while USD-denominated products grew 9.6% year-over-year. The strength in investment-led transactions helped offset softness in insurance and domestic management fees, which continue to weigh on overall revenue. One-time commissions related to investment products grew 85.5% year-over-year, supported by stronger client sentiment and an expanded range of quality global investment solutions offered to our clients. Overseas net revenues for the third quarter remained robust at RMB 311 million, contributing 49.1% of total net revenues. By revenue type, one-time commissions were RMB 159 million, up 2.2% sequentially. For the first three quarters, the transaction value of RMB private secondary products surged 26% to RMB 9 billion, while USD private secondary products, excluding cash management, climbed 244% to USD 688 million. Recurring service fees exceeded expectations, rising 4.7% year-over-year and 3.6% sequentially to RMB 421 million. The increase was supported by higher overseas product management fee contributions and some extensions of domestic fee funds. When domestic exit activities were slower than expected, we do not view this as a structural issue. We acknowledge that recurring income may face some pressure in the near term. We're proactively managing our portfolio and strengthening overseas product fee contributions to mitigate the impact. Performance-based income remained stable from last quarter, standing at RMB 22 million. Our overall operating expenses declined 1.6% sequentially to RMB 461 million. For the first three quarters, it has dropped 6.5% year-over-year, reflecting improved efficiency across the organization. This discipline enabled us to expand our operating margin to 27.6% for the first nine months from 25.5% a year ago, with operating profit reaching RMB 519 million, up 4.6% year-over-year. In the third quarter alone, operating profit was RMB 172 million, with a 27.2% margin. Non-GAAP net income rose to RMB 229 million, up 52.2% year-over-year and 21.2% sequentially, reflecting continuing operational strength and solid investment performance. That said, we may encounter a moderation in the fourth quarter as market conditions evolve. As of September 30, 2025, total assets under management, AUM, stood at RMB 143.5 billion. USD-denominated AUM grew 5.3% year-over-year and 2.6% sequentially to USD 5.9 billion, while USD-denominated assets under advisory, the AUA, increased 6.8% year-over-year and 2.0% sequentially to USD 9.3 billion. This ongoing expansion in overseas assets highlights Noah's success in capturing offshore investment demand and strengthening our international footprint. Our overseas client base continued to grow, with registered clients up 13.1% year-over-year and active clients reaching 3,561 by the end of the third quarter. The number of newly acquired golden clients, defined as professional investors, has reached over 1,000 by the end of the third quarter, reflecting our ability to attract and retain high-quality clientele. Our balance sheet remains strong and debt-free. As of September 30, 2025, cash and short-term investments totaled RMB 5.0 billion, even after a dividend payout of RMB 550 million. With zero interest-bearing liabilities, we maintain significant liquidity and flexibility to support global growth and technology investments. In closing, even under softer revenue conditions, our disciplined operating model and prudent investment approach delivered solid profitability and margin expansion. With a strong balance sheet, growing global presence, and ongoing digital transformation and AI application, we remain confident in Noah's ability to deliver sustainable growth and create long-term value for all stakeholders. Thank you for your trust and continued support, and we'll now open the floor for questions.

Operator, Operator

The first question comes from Helen Li with UBS.

Heqing Li, Analyst

Can you hear me?

Operator, Operator

Yes. Please go ahead. Helen, we lost you.

Operator, Operator

The next question comes from Peter Zhang with JPMorgan.

Peter Zhang, Analyst

Congratulations on the very strong results. I have two questions. First, management provided clear guidance on the AI strategy, increasing the investment product proportion, and the booking center. Can we understand the potential financial impact of these strategies? For instance, with AI adoption, will there be cost savings on operating expenses or improvements in revenue? Particularly regarding the U.S. booking center, will there be substantial upfront investment leading to a full launch in 2026? My second question is about tracking Noah's progress in this strategy over the next one to two years. Additionally, I noticed that the headcount for overseas relationship managers decreased in the third quarter while the domestic coverage city increased. This trend differs from what we’ve seen in the past two years. Could you explain the rationale behind this? Is there a significant change in company strategy, or is it simply a market adjustment or headcount fine-tuning?

Grant Pan, CFO

Thank you, Peter, for your comprehensive question. I will address the first part, and Zander will follow up on the second. Regarding the three key metrics for optimizing our revenue structure, investors should monitor the proportion of revenue generated from investment-related products. We expect both revenue and our top line to continue growing. At the same time, the income we derive from investment-related products, especially as we expand our product offerings and observe a recovery in client investment sentiment, is something to keep an eye on. Additionally, we aim to see a significant growth in our investment-related assets under management and assets under administration. As for your second question, our Chairlady, Noah, can elaborate on our AI investments. This isn't merely a small optimization; it's a fundamental transformation of our business model beyond our traditional offline relationship management. We are establishing two teams: one focused on AI-driven relationship management to re-engage inactive or new clients, as we believe AI allows for a more structured and customized approach to generating new client leads. The second initiative explores leveraging AI to integrate and enhance our established systematic infrastructure and various product offerings, especially in the area of EAM services that are thriving in foreign markets. In short, we aim for our ongoing AI investments to enhance client acquisition and upgrade our business model moving forward. We've been reworking our organizational structure this year and plan to make a strategic investment in AI commencing in 2026. Regarding the booking center, we will be making some infrastructure upgrades in the U.S. booking center, but we've already had a presence in the U.S. for several years, with many teams already operating there. We will be adding to our mid- and back-office capabilities for the broker-dealer business. However, from a budget perspective, these additions will not significantly impact our operating expenses; they are simply necessary infrastructure developments for 2026.

Zander Yin, CEO

Let me provide a quick translation. The CEO mentioned that the three strategies are closely linked because the main focus is on driving the company as an Assets Under Management (AUM)-driven entity. Over the past few years, clients have been more cautious about investing, but recently, there has been a shift, and clients are now more engaged in investing. Therefore, we believe that the AUM-driven structure is critical for our revenue growth in the near future. In discussing AUM-driven revenue growth, it is important to consider AI development and our various global booking centers. AI investments can improve our business efficiency and enhance the client experience, which we believe will strengthen our momentum in terms of client service and sales performance. Similarly, with the booking centers, we are working to address our clients' planning needs since we've observed increased global demand for investments. This is why we are focused on building our platform and providing the necessary infrastructure for our clients.

Unknown Executive, Interpreter

To your second question, Peter, the CEO emphasized that our focus on developing the overseas market remains unchanged. The recent decline in the number of our overseas relationship managers should be viewed as an internal adjustment rather than due to other factors. Finding the right relationship managers requires significant investment and time, which is why we have started to invest in our AI development and introduced the concept of AI relationship managers. The AI relationship manager you recently met is an example of this. AI has shown the potential to handle a significantly larger number of clients compared to human managers, which aligns with what our CEO stated about the capacity of AI relationship managers. While you may have noticed an increase in the number of cities we cover in the domestic market, these aren’t necessarily the same types of offices we've had in major cities. These new places are more akin to clubhouses designed for client relationships and enhancing experiences for our elite clients. We want to highlight that our commitment to developing the overseas market remains steadfast.

Jingbo Wang, Chairlady

Can you hear me?

Unknown Executive, Interpreter

Yes. Let me provide a brief overview. The Chairlady mentioned that we began investing in various AI and investment-related funds in 2016 and have maintained close relationships with top high-tech companies. We highlight this to showcase our knowledge of AI and technology. For instance, investors and analysts can see that we have launched a range of infrastructure funds under our brand. We aim to demonstrate our deep expertise in AI, which we believe will drive significant changes in the wealth management industry. Historically, it has been more focused on relationship management and human involvement, but we anticipate a shift towards an operational-driven model. This model relies on the development of AI, enabling an AI-powered wealth management team to perform data analysis, with some team members possibly holding licenses. Ultimately, the emphasis is on AI, which can enhance our understanding of various investment products and client needs, allowing us to serve many more clients per individual than before. This is what we mean by becoming operational-driven. Furthermore, as we expand into international markets, relying only on human resources is not efficient because of high costs and differing levels of loyalty and stability among staff. Therefore, the company believes that implementing an operational-driven wealth management system is a more effective approach to managing this business. This trend is not exclusive to our company and is anticipated to arise throughout the entire industry in the next three to five years. We are taking proactive measures to position ourselves ahead of these changes by establishing a global operating platform that will enhance collaboration with local EAM IAF teams. This global infrastructure will enable us to serve our client base more effectively. As a conclusion, we believe that with AI, currently, all of our relationship managers have their own AI assistants. This can enhance our capacity, making one relationship manager equivalent to three. More importantly, we are also developing new business units within our AI wealth management framework that will improve clients' experiences and re-engage clients that may not have been active in recent years.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Calvin Wang with Citi.

Unknown Analyst, Analyst

Congrats on the solid premium in the third quarter. I have a question about investment product sales, which showed strong growth during the quarter. What specific actions has Noah taken? Also, looking ahead to the fourth quarter, what is our strategy for investment product sales in both domestic and international markets? Are there any particular products that we will focus on this year?

Zander Yin, CEO

You may know that our company issues a CIO report every six months. In the latest report, we highlighted three types of products that we think require more emphasis. The first involves traditional investments that can help combat inflation, such as property funds or perhaps gold and materials. The second category focuses on technology-related investments, where technology is used to tackle inflation, including AI applications relevant to firms and associated investments. The third area pertains to newly developed businesses, particularly investments in cryptocurrency, which we have been encouraging clients to consider more closely. As the Chairlady pointed out, we have been connecting with the U.S. product market since 2016, and we have established a team there to find various funds and investment options for our clients. This strategy has enabled us to improve our market share in recent years, which is evident in our financial results. We have observed a significant increase in the sales of hedge funds, which are secondary market funds offered to our clients. In terms of the renminbi market, due to our strong performance in Asia, there has been considerable interest in renminbi-related products among our clients. However, the company maintains a cautious perspective on these products. Our primary strength and focus remain on overseas investment options, especially technology and AI-related products.

Unknown Executive, Interpreter

Additionally, we shouldn't solely focus on specific types of products when addressing this question. It's also about the company's position and the inherent values we've maintained at Noah, which involve serving all of our global Chinese clients by understanding their needs and providing better services. The infrastructure we've built—including global broker centers and various business units like Ark in Hong Kong and Singapore—enables us to offer services for opening accounts, buying equities, and investing in bond-related products. Our asset management brand, Olive, has traditionally been strong in private equity funds and is now expanding into hedge funds. Furthermore, our brand, Glory, is providing trust services, insurance advice, and family planning. This comprehensive infrastructure allows us to meet our clients' needs, emphasizing our intention to drive revenue models based on assets under management. That's one reason we've begun building a commission-based insurance agency team to reduce operational costs while efficiently meeting clients' demands.

Jingbo Wang, Chairlady

I guess she emphasized again the RM team we have built and the global group booking center we developed, which allows us to provide services across various time zones and geographical limitations. High net worth clients are not limited by geography and often speak multiple languages. Additionally, when entering new markets, we encounter regulatory challenges. This foundational strength gives us a competitive edge because smaller wealth management firms struggle to navigate these issues. Consequently, Noah is well-positioned to establish this global infrastructure platform, ensuring compliance and support for any potential high-net-worth clients we may reach.

Unknown Executive, Interpreter

In conclusion, she is confident and enthusiastic about developing the right strategy to advance our company. The focus on a global platform and scalable business units that we have already invested in, along with new initiatives like the AI RM concept, positions us to meet the needs of high-net-worth clients worldwide. She is very optimistic about our growth strategy.

Operator, Operator

And the next question comes from Jin Jiang Yan with CICC.

Unknown Analyst, Analyst

My first question is about the investment income and income from equity affiliates. I see that both these items have significantly contributed to the growth of net profit. Could you please share the reasons behind this and the trends in the fourth quarter? My second question is about the active clients. I see that the active client number increased both double digits year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. Could you please share what you have observed from the clients' behavior, the impact on the financial statement, and the trend in the fourth quarter?

Zander Yin, CEO

Regarding the investment gain we've achieved, one major reason is due to previous investments made by the company, particularly as the GP for some of our private equity funds. We've seen recent exits during favorable market conditions and also noted gains from the valuation of certain investments. Concerning active clients, the better results come from our more focused attention on investment products. Life insurance clients are likely to make repeat purchases with us, leading to stronger relationships. Our CEO emphasizes this is why we aim to concentrate more on becoming an assets under management-driven company.

Jingbo Wang, Chairlady

The investment gains we've achieved reflect the sound decisions made in the past. The investments and decisions we've made in private equity funds and other ventures, including listings in the USA, have led to positive results. This investment income also serves as an attractive point for clients, encouraging them to invest with us more willingly.

Operator, Operator

I have a follow-up question regarding AI application. How will AI support client acquisition in the overseas market? Given the recent decline in overseas relationship managers, does this suggest a strategic shift towards serving existing clients' overseas investment needs rather than focusing on expanding local client acquisition? Additionally, is the reduction in headcount primarily affecting mid- to back-office relationship managers, or does it also impact client-facing front office relationship managers? Do you still plan to expand the client-facing front office relationship manager team? Previously, the target was to grow the overseas relationship manager team to 300 in the medium term. Has there been any change to this medium-term target with the adoption of AI?

Jingbo Wang, Chairlady

To answer your question about client acquisition and the role of AI, we've previously served over 400,000 clients over the past 22 years. Our investment experience, particularly with various PE funds, has helped us identify and connect with potential high-net-worth individuals. AI can significantly enhance our efficiency in providing services to clients. For example, we are now able to engage clients much more quickly. We had one client in Singapore who decided to invest within just five days after meeting us. That level of efficiency was previously unattainable.

Zander Yin, CEO

AI adoption varies among companies, and efficiency in using AI can significantly impact client engagement. Noah's early digitalization initiatives mean we've been better positioned to adopt AI rapidly compared to our peers. Although we've seen some benefits already, the potential we can achieve with improved AI applications far surpasses our current achievements.

Operator, Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Doreen Chiu for any closing remarks.

Unknown Executive, Interpreter

Yes. Thank you. And thank you very much for joining us today. If anyone has further questions, please contact the IR team as usual. Thank you very much.

Operator, Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.