Earnings Call Transcript - NOAH Q4 2025

Operator, Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Noah Holdings Limited Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Please note today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dorian Chiu. Please go ahead. Thank you, Rocco, and good morning, and welcome to Noah Holdings Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me on the call today are Ms. Nora Wang, Co-Founder and Chair Lady; Mr. Zander Yin, the Co-Founder, Director, and CEO; and Mr. Grant Pan, the CFO. Mr. Yin will begin with an overview of our recent business highlights and strategic developments, followed by Mr. Pan, who will review our financial and operational results. After management's prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. Before we begin, please note that today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in such statements. Potential risks and uncertainties include but are not limited to those described in our public filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Nora undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law. Without further ado, I would now turn the call over to Mr. Yin. Please go ahead. Thank you.

Zander Yin, CEO

Good day to everyone, and thank you for joining us today. 2026 marks the 21st year since Noah was established. In a market environment defined by continuous evolution and restructuring, our strategic direction has never been clearer. We remain firmly focused on serving global Chinese high net worth and ultra-high net worth clients operating through licensed local entities to provide compliance, long-term wealth management services across multiple jurisdictions. More importantly, we are completing a critical transformation evolving from a wealth management institution primarily driven by product sales into a comprehensive platform, centered on asset allocation, global structuring and AI systems. In 2025, this transformation began to yield tangible operating results. This is not a temporary business adjustment, but the fundamental reconstruction of our operating model. For Noah, 2025 represents an important milestone. Looking at our full year results, the quality of our profitability is improving at a faster pace than the stabilization of our revenue structure. For the full year, net revenues were RMB 2.6 billion, broadly flat year-over-year. However, operating profit was RMB 777 million, up 22.5% year-over-year, with operating margin improving to 29.8% and non-GAAP net income increasing 11.2% year-over-year to RMB 612 million. Excluding the impact of non-operating items, adjusted non-GAAP net income was approximately RMB 753 million. What matters most at this stage is not the absolute scale of our profitability but the improving underlying structure. This profit growth was not driven by one-off factors, but by optimized cost structure, enhanced operating efficiency, and the ongoing shift in revenue mix toward investment-related businesses. This reflects how our profitability is shifting from cyclical volatility towards structural stability. This is a quantitative change, not simply quantitative growth. From a business perspective, while our domestic and overseas business segments are moving at different paces, they are pulling in the same direction. Investment capabilities are becoming the primary growth engine. Net revenues from our overseas wealth management business were RMB 550 million in 2025 and down 18.8% year-over-year, mainly due to a decline in insurance product distribution revenue. However, overseas AUA grew to USD 9.5 billion, up 8.6% year-over-year. Notably, transaction value of U.S. dollar-denominated private secondary products tripled year-over-year to USD 950 million. The number of overseas registered clients approached 20,000, up 13.2% year-over-year, of which active clients exceeded 6,200, up 12.4% year-over-year. Net revenues from Olive, the overseas asset management business were RMB 550 million for the full year, up 26.3% year-over-year, mainly driven by higher management fees resulting from AUM growth. Overseas AUM reached USD 6.1 billion, up nearly 4% year-over-year, accounting for 30% of total AUM. Net revenues from Glory Family Heritage, our integrated services business were RMB 180 million for the full year, up 28.8% year-over-year. Despite a highly competitive market environment, we achieved breakthroughs in sales through new channels. Domestically, sustained recovery in the Asia market helped improve our performance. RMB-denominated private secondary products maintained growth momentum from the second quarter onwards, which helped partially offset the impact of declining management fees from maturing RMB-denominated private equity products. Noah Upright, our domestic public securities business recorded net revenues of RMB 570 million in 2025, up 15.9% year-over-year with transaction value for RMB-denominated private secondary products reaching RMB 11.2 billion, up 107.2% year-over-year. Gopher, our domestic asset management business recorded net revenues of RMB 690 million for the full year down 10.3% year-over-year, mainly due to lower management fees resulting from maturing RMB-denominated private equity products. In the primary market, Gopher completed RMB 5 billion of private equity asset exits and distributions in 2025. Glory, our domestic insurance business recorded net revenues of RMB 19 million for the full year, down 56.5% year-over-year. The decline in revenue was expected and aligned with our plans and ongoing strategic transformation. Overall, our performance clearly shows a business shifting toward investment and asset allocation capabilities. It is this long-term vision that has systematically rebuilt our overall structure over the past few years. What we have accomplished is not simply business expansion, but a fundamental reconstruction of our operating model. Today, we are building a global wealth management operational system composed of three core platforms, all operating under a unified management framework. ARK serves as the client onboarding and execution platform, with licenses in Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States; it operates compliantly within the local regulatory framework. ARK is responsible for account management, trade execution, product distribution, and AI wealth advisory services, providing clients globally with a consistent, seamless, and compliant experience. Olive serves as our investment and asset management platform across Hong Kong, the United States, Singapore, Japan, and Canada. It has the capabilities to source global assets, establish and manage funds across multiple jurisdictions, and execute long-term asset allocation strategies. It is a key foundational piece for our long-term value creation and revenue stability. Glory serves as our asset structuring and risk management platform covering major markets, including China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States. It offers insurance, trust, and identity planning services that deliver risk isolation and asset protection through structuring solutions and supports the long-term transfer of family wealth. Supporting these three core platforms is our cross-jurisdiction compliance architecture anchored by our four major booking centers. Shanghai serves as a domestic client onboarding hub for RMB asset allocation, Noah Upright fund distribution, and Gopher asset management. Hong Kong functions as the cross-border connector for securities and insurance, serving as the bridge between China and global markets. Singapore is our center for overseas asset allocation and family structuring and our primary pilot regions for AI wealth management. The United States serves as a key hub for BPC and capital markets activity. In particular, our investment capabilities in the technology sector are an important contributor to future revenue growth and innovation. I want to emphasize that all booking centers are independently operated by locally licensed entities and conduct business within their respective regulatory frameworks; cross-regional collaboration is primarily limited to research and information support with no direct cross-jurisdiction business activities. This strict compliance boundary is the institutional foundation for our steady growth. The decline in headcount was more visible in our operating results. So headcount declined by 11% year-over-year, while revenue remained stable, reflecting improving operational efficiencies. Over the long term, AI brings more than just improved operational efficiency; it is also reconstructing how we operate by embedding AI into key areas such as client engagement, content generation, and operational processes. We have established a collaborative operational-driven model in certain regions. This reflects our transition away from headcount expansion to systems that drive both scale and service quality. Looking ahead to 2026, we will remain prudent but highly focused on our clear strategic direction. While revenue may still fluctuate due to structural adjustments, the proportion of investment-related income is expected to rise as profit margins remain stable or improve gradually. Furthermore, our AI capabilities will evolve beyond system efficiency gains and scale into broader operational validation. We are still in the midst of our transformation, but the logic behind our long-term operational model is stronger than ever. At its core, this transformation is not about changing product form or expanding services, but about fundamentally reconstructing what drives our growth. Historically, our industry has relied heavily on the individual capabilities of relationship managers. Today, we are building a human-machine collaborative model centered on asset allocation, where AI-empowered relationship managers and our global platforms amplify their capabilities. 2025 marks the starting point of this model, where it will gradually reflect in our operating results. The transformation is ongoing, but our strategic direction is firmly set. We will continue to execute this long-term strategy prudently and compliantly. Thank you. I will now hand the time over to CFO, Pan, to review our financial performance in more detail.

Grant Pan, CFO

Thank you, Zander. And good morning, everyone, for the comprehensive strategic overview and good day to everyone who joined us today. I would like to focus on two key financial messages. First, 2025 delivered strong operating profit growth and structural margin expansion, driven by a clear shift in our revenue mix. Investment-related income increased significantly during the year, while we deliberately reduced our reliance on insurance-related revenue. This reflects our continued transition toward a more investment-led business model, with improving earnings quality and greater margin resilience. Second, the Board has approved our dividend proposal, including a special dividend, bringing the total payout to 100% of full year non-GAAP net income for the third consecutive year. This reinforces the consistency and visibility of our shareholder return policy. Together, these developments underscore our transition toward a more investment-driven, globally diversified, and resilient operating model. For the full year 2025, net revenue was RMB 2.6 billion, broadly stable year-over-year. Operating profit increased to RMB 777 million, representing growth of 22.5%. Operating margin expanded to 29.8%, compared with 24.4% in the prior year. Non-GAAP net income reached RMB 612 million, up 11.2% year-over-year. This improvement was primarily driven by structural cost optimization and enhanced operating efficiency rather than short-term factors. In the fourth quarter, revenue was RMB 733 million, up 12.5% year-over-year. Operating profit reached RMB 258 million, representing a significant increase of 87.3%, and operating margin expanded further to 35.2%. This reflects strong operating leverage as performance-based income starts to materialize, supported by a more scalable and disciplined operating structure. During the year, we continued to optimize our revenue structure. Investment products commissions increased by 79.7% year-over-year and performance-based income rose by 78%. At the same time, overseas revenue contribution increased to 49% of total net revenue. This shift towards investment-driven and globally diversified revenue streams has enhanced earnings quality and supported structural margin expansion. To provide a clearer view of our core performance, I would like to address two non-operational items that affected our reported fourth quarter GAAP results. First, under income from equity in affiliates, we recorded a loss of approximately RMB 120 million. This was primarily driven by mark-to-market accounting adjustments related to share price volatility of a specific listed investment. It's important to emphasize that this represents accounting reflection of market movements and does not impact our core wealth management operations. Second, regarding the legacy Camsing credit fund arrangements, several cases reached procedural milestones this quarter as certain clients opted for arbitration. In line with our prudent financial policy, we recognize contingent expenses of approximately RMB 50 million. Total provisions now stand at RMB 505 million, representing about 63% of the unsettled principal. Based on current benchmarks and the progress of these cases, we believe the existing provision level is appropriate and covers a substantial portion of the potential exposure. Based on the information currently available, we do not anticipate significant additional provisions. If we exclude these two non-operational items, adjusted full year non-GAAP net income would have been approximately RMB 753 million, which we believe more accurately reflects our underlying operational efficiencies. In terms of balance sheet, as of December 31, 2025, cash and short-term investments totaled RMB 5.0 billion. The asset-liability ratio stood at 15%, and the company carries no interest-bearing debt. Our current ratio was 4.5x. This debt-free structure provides strong financial flexibility and reinforces the resilience of our balance sheet. From a financial perspective, our AI strategy is centered on productivity enhancement rather than heavy capital expenditure. We are already seeing measurable results in our cost structure. In 2025, total headcount decreased by 11% year-over-year when net revenue remained stable at RMB 2.6 billion. This indicates a meaningful increase in output per capita. AI-driven tools now support a substantial portion of client engagement, automated reporting, and routine workflow tasks that previously required a lot of manual intervention. In our view, AI functions as a structural efficiency multiplier. It enables us to scale global operations while maintaining disciplined cost control and consistent service quality. As of year-end, shareholders' equity stood at about RMB 9.9 billion. At our current market capitalization, the company is trading at roughly 0.57x book value with operating return on equity close to 8%. When market valuation may fluctuate, our focus remains on building long-term intrinsic value through disciplined execution and continued global expansion. Our strong cash position and operating cash flow provide both confidence and flexibility to deliver attractive and sustainable shareholder returns across market cycles. Driven by our solid performance and healthy liquidity position, the Board has approved a total dividend of RMB 612 million, equal to 100% of 2025 non-GAAP net income. This consists of a 50% regular dividend and a 50% special dividend. Subject to shareholder approval at the 2026 AGM, this will mark our third consecutive year of full payout. At current market prices, the implied dividend yield is approximately 11%, including RMB 50 million in share repurchase completed in 2025. Total cash return yield reaches approximately 12%. This payout is fully supported by our core operations and strong balance sheet. It represents approximately 80% of operating profit and is covered multiple times by RMB 5.0 billion in cash and short-term investments. In short, we're rewarding shareholders for their trust while maintaining a fortress balance sheet that supports our continued global growth. In summary, revenue remained resilient throughout the year as we executed a deliberate shift towards more investment-driven income streams. At the same time, operating profit delivered strong double-digit growth, supported by structural margin expansion and continued improvements in efficiency. Our AI initiatives are now translating into tangible productivity gains, strengthening our operating leverage and scalability. Our industry-leading capital return policy, highlighted by a 100% payout and the introduction of special dividends, also reflects both operational strength and confidence in the sustainability of our model. So with these foundations firmly in place, Noah has emerged leaner, more efficient, and structurally stronger. We remain fully committed to disciplined execution and the creation of sustainable long-term shareholder value. Thank you. And we will now open the floor for questions.

Heqing Li, Analyst

I have two questions. The first question is on private credit risk. How much in third-party private credit product has Noah distributed today? Have you seen any client redemption in this area? How do you assess the overall risk profile of this product? One area of concern in the private credit market has been potential disruptions from AI given that a meaningful portion of the underlying portfolio companies are software firms. Noah maintained the investment team in Silicon Valley; how much direct investment or co-investment does Noah currently have in the private credit space? What percentage of the underlying assets are software companies and what percentage of those could potentially be vulnerable to AI-driven disruptions, and how do you view the risk in this segment? My second question is on transaction value and one-time commissions. In the fourth quarter, one-time commission declined sharply year-on-year. Looking more closely at transaction value, both domestic and overseas insurance product sales weakened significantly. How do you see the run rate trend heading into 2026? Amidst the recent capital market pullback, how has client sentiment towards investment products evolved? Are clients adopting the risk of reducing their allocation to investment products and finally, what's the current strategy in terms of the investment strategy for the remainder of this year?

Zander Yin, CEO

First of all, we must emphasize that the company doesn't run or only own any asset that is related to the product that Helen just mentioned. So what we've been doing at Silicon Valley is mainly invested or partnered with some key major names in their PE product or in some VC funds. And that's why we don't see much impact on our business. Because when we review the AUA here, those assets are only representing a low single-digit amount of our AUA. The company has been concerned about the related asset class at a very early stage, and that's why we have been advising our clients to have a proper position early on. And regarding the second question on our commission, we must emphasize that being in the wealth management business, we are not a single product sales-driven business, but we've been trying to provide safe and structural services for our clients. So yes, we do see the drop in insurance sales, but we believe that this is because many of our existing clients have already had enough coverage from insurance products. And those factors affected our business under Glory, where we are providing a global solution to our clients and not just selling single insurance products. Regarding the investment incentive among our clients, we don't see any drop in demand. We understand that there's risk in the market; however, we actually see clients still have a very high interest in investing their wealth, particularly in AI-related products. So we will continue to monitor that and provide appropriate advice to the client.

Jingbo Wang, Board Member

Thank you, Chair Lady. What we want to emphasize is that Noah, as a company established for many years, has substantial experience in handling different types of economic cycles. For the recent situation, we were talking about PE risk related to alternative investment products linked to social media assets. We can use an example of the market conditions we have seen before in China, where an investment under normal criteria should return about 5%, but is now over 93%, which is a situation we've experienced before. That’s why we've taken early positions to advise our clients to depend on their risk appetite, whether they would prefer to take mid-term risk or be more risk-averse. We’ve been advising our RMs to talk to different clients, considering their asset allocation and risk appetite. Our clients are still in a prudent situation, and we don’t see any immediate issue. We also leverage our experience within the Mainland market, as we know the characteristics of Chinese high net worth individuals and the challenges they face in managing their investments. That’s why we’ve been cautious in selecting which PE opportunities we pursue.

Calvin Leon, Analyst

This is Calvin from Citi. My first question is about AI. Can management share our strategy and investment in AI going forward? And how would this be reflected in Noah's operating or financial metrics? My second question is on shareholder return. Noah has maintained a high payout ratio in 2025. Looking ahead, what are the plans and considerations on payout ratio and share buyback?

Zander Yin, CEO

We want to stress that our adoption of AI is not just to follow a trend but to genuinely improve company efficiency. Previously, our analysts assessed growth by increasing the number of relationship managers. However, with the implementation of our AI systems, we have observed a significant rise in assets under management even as our personnel numbers have decreased, highlighting enhanced efficiency and service quality. AI also enables us to expand our business by connecting with external asset management channels and facilitating collaboration with independent third-party entities. In response to your question about metrics for AI efficiency, while we cannot measure everything at this time, a significant metric is the number of clients we serve. We have documentation of over numerous clients, and thanks to AI advancements, we can offer improved service. Clients can be assured that we prioritize their privacy in our strategies. Our RM100 program is designed for relationship managers to focus on around 100 clients intensively, while AI manages the rest, which will enhance overall income and profitability going forward. When it comes to shareholder returns, we are optimistic about our growth and have a solid plan for resource allocation, which is why we maintain a high payout policy.

Qing Pan, CFO

I just want to add that since the buyback program commenced, we have repurchased about 4.3% of the total shares outstanding. Additionally, we have been disciplined in implementing our dividend policy. After adding this year's dividend to previous payouts, the total has crossed the RMB 2 billion threshold, which is a strong return not just in Chinese ADRs but likely compared to many listed companies. We're giving out about $1.32 per ADS this year, which we are confident we can sustain based on our strong cash flow.

Peter Zhang, Analyst

Thanks for giving me the opportunity to ask questions. This is Peter Zhang from JPMorgan. I have two questions. First, we noticed that the fourth quarter revenue was mainly supported by strong performance fees; I wish to understand the drivers behind this. Can this revenue segment be sustainable into 2026? Secondly, can management describe the quarter-to-date operating trend for Noah, including client activity, client investment behavior, wealth management sales product sales volume, and revenue trend? Given the recent market volatility, does this have any implication for your equity affiliate income?

Zander Yin, CEO

It is challenging to predict future trends precisely. However, we must emphasize that our focus has shifted towards investing in private equity in previous years, and we believe this will carry long-term growth for the company. Regarding equity in affiliates, while we anticipate some pressure in Q1, this is only a non-operational impact. As for the first quarter’s operations, if Pan would like to.

Qing Pan, CFO

To highlight the carry earnings Peter mentioned, about two-thirds came from exits in U.S. dollar-denominated funds in Silicon Valley, while the remaining came from domestic products, notably RMB private hedge funds. It is a balanced return, but it’s tough to forecast timing precisely. We are, however, observing a stabilization of client sentiment toward investments. Additionally, in light of current tensions in the Middle East, clients appear more risk-averse, preferring investments in liquidity positions and diversified portfolios. This aligns with our strategy to encourage clients to diversify across asset classes and regions.

Yumin Tang, Analyst

I noticed a meaningful expansion in operating margins. Could management provide some color on what drove this increase and how do you view our capacity to maintain an effective cost structure? Additionally, what were the primary drivers behind the significant widening of investment losses from equity in affiliates in the fourth quarter?

Qing Pan, CFO

Yes, the operational margin increase resulted from continued optimization in labor costs, notably in salary and bonuses, and streamlining mid-back office processes, thanks to AI utilization. As a result of headcount reductions, total staffing costs decreased about 10%. With carrier income boosting our health margins, we aim for a foundational operational margin of about 30% which aligns with our strategies moving into 2026. Regarding equity performance, we've faced substantial pressure in Q4; however, we hope to stabilize this in Q1.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to the company for any closing remarks. Thank you. And thank you everyone for joining us today. If you have further questions about the company, please feel free to reach out to the IR team here and have a good day, everyone.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. That concludes today's conference call, and we appreciate your attendance at the presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.