Earnings Call Transcript - OSK Q2 2025

Operator, Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Oshkosh Corporation Second Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Pat Davidson, Senior Vice President and Investor Relations for Oshkosh Corporation. Thank you, sir. You may begin.

Patrick N. Davidson, Senior VP and Investor Relations

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Earlier today, we published our second quarter 2025 results. A copy of that release is available on our website at oshkoshcorp.com. Today's call is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation, which includes a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that we will use during this call and is also available on our website. The audio replay and slide presentation will be available on our website for approximately 12 months. Please refer now to Slide 2 of that presentation. Our remarks that follow, including answers to your questions, contain statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our Form 8-K filed with the SEC this morning and other filings we make with the SEC as well as matters noted at our Investor Day in June 2025. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements, which may not be updated until our next quarterly earnings call, if at all. Our presenters today include John Pfeifer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Matt Field, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please turn to Slide 3, and I'll turn it over to you, John.

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Thank you, Pat, and good morning, everyone. Before we get into the quarter, I want to highlight the positive response we've received to our June 5 Investor Day. This slide from the event highlights the key elements that we believe make Oshkosh an attractive investment, bringing the full strength of our portfolio united by our shared strategy accelerated innovation in autonomy, electrification, and intelligent connected products, all supported by favorable long-term trends. I want to reiterate two key messages from the event about our 2028 targets. First, we expect to deliver sizable revenue growth; and second, we expect to transform margins. We believe many of the key drivers that support these returns are largely under our control at Oshkosh. Turning to Slide 4. We delivered an adjusted operating margin of 11.5% on revenue of $2.7 billion in our second quarter. This led to adjusted earnings per share of $3.41, an increase of 2.1% over the prior year. These results reflect strong performance across each of our segments which Matt will dig into later in the call. We grew adjusted EPS and maintained adjusted operating income margin year-over-year despite lower revenue, reflecting continued strong performance in our Vocational segment, improved returns in our Transport segment, and a resilient mid-teens margin in our Access segment, maintaining adjusted operating income margins on lower revenue highlights our commitment to transform margins as we move forward. Our results reflect the disciplined execution of our Innovate, Serve, Advance strategy, which we show on Slide 5. Through this strategy, we have expanded our portfolio to include strong operations like AeroTech and AUSA that expand our business into attractive adjacent markets while improving our earnings profile. Turning to Slide 6 for Q2 highlights. As I mentioned earlier, we discussed our plans to grow the company at our Investor Day. We were excited to share our 2028 targets with you all, including a compound annual revenue growth rate of 7% to 10% and transformative margin expansion of 200 to 400 basis points. While these are targets for 2028, we believe the building blocks that support our plan are in place today. As we expected and highlighted at our Investor Day, we signed the three-year sole-source contract for FMTV, the Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles program with the Department of Defense just a week later. This contract includes updated pricing and an economic price adjustment mechanism which we believe will yield favorable returns as we build units under the contract. A significant part of the FMTV program is the launch of our LVAD or low velocity airdrop variant which has been favorably received by the DoD. This new FMTV contract follows our five-year FHTV, a Family of Heavy Tactical Vehicles contract with the DoD that we signed last year and has similar terms. Our performance this quarter in the Transport segment in part reflects production of FHTV units under these new contract terms. For the delivery side of the Transport segment, we're making steady progress with the production ramp-up of the next-generation delivery vehicle for the United States Postal Service at our Spartanburg, South Carolina facility. In June, we surpassed 1 million cumulative miles driven by postal workers across the fielded NGDV fleet, an exciting milestone that reflects the momentum of this program. And in July, the USPS topped 1.5 million cumulative miles. We're also pleased to welcome Steve Nordlund, who joined in mid-July to lead the Transport segment. Steve brings a proven track record of innovation, leadership, and success in securing major defense contracts. Most recently, he led Boeing's Air Dominance division, which includes the recent award of the sixth-generation F47 fighter aircraft. He's a valuable addition to our team and is well positioned to help drive continued growth and performance in this segment. Turning to Slide 7. Another highlight of the quarter was the launch of our micro-sized scissor lift, which we announced in May, and we began delivering in June. This product specifically designed for data center customers has been so well received that we are already evaluating options to expand capacity for this model and broaden the product line. Sales in the Access segment were in line with expectations. The segment delivered nearly 15% adjusted operating income for the quarter despite 11% lower revenue. Last, but certainly not least, I want to highlight the strong performance in our Vocational segment. At Investor Day, we discussed the opportunity to expand capacity progressively in this segment to meet growing demand and fulfill backlog orders. Deliveries of our fire apparatus increased 7% in the quarter compared to last year, which included 15 trucks for Kansas City, Missouri, a great example of the many deliveries we're making to fire departments across North America. These efforts contributed to a 15% revenue increase for the segment and 20% growth for fire apparatus. We are proud to serve firefighters throughout the country and are honored to once again co-sponsor the 9/11 Memorial Stair Climb on September 20 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. This is the 13th year of our support for this outstanding event benefiting The National Fallen Firefighters Foundation. We are committed to our partnerships like these and building our business to be sustainable for the long term. Many of our initiatives are highlighted in our 12th annual sustainability report, which we published in June. In summary, this was another strong quarter for Oshkosh with contributions from all our segments. As we shared at our Investor Day, we believe we are well positioned to grow revenue and transform our margins between now and 2028, and the building blocks to deliver on this growth are evident in this quarter's results. With that, I'll hand it over to Matt to walk through our detailed financial results.

Matthew Allen Field, Executive VP and CFO

Thanks, John. Please turn to Slide 8. Consolidated sales for the second quarter were $2.7 billion, a decrease of $115 million or 4% from the same quarter last year. Primarily due to lower sales volume in the Access and Transport segments, which was partially offset by higher Vocational sales volume and improved pricing. Adjusted operating income was $313 million down slightly from the prior year as a result of lower sales volume. Adjusted operating income margin of 11.5% was consistent with the prior year despite lower sales. Adjusted earnings per share was $3.41 in the second quarter, $0.07 higher than last year. During the quarter, we stepped up our share repurchases, repurchasing nearly 415,000 shares of our stock or about $40 million, bringing our year-to-date share repurchases to nearly $70 million. Share repurchases during the previous 12 months benefited adjusted EPS by $0.06 compared to the second quarter of 2024. Positive free cash flow for the quarter of $49 million was significantly higher than the second quarter of 2024, which had a net use of cash of $251 million. Improved free cash flow primarily reflected the timing of tax payments and better management of receivables. Turning to our segment highlights on Slide 9. The Access segment delivered resilient adjusted operating income margins of 14.8% on sales of $1.26 billion. Market conditions for Access equipment in North America were in line with our expectations. Sales were $151 million lower than last year, reflecting the expiration of our agreement to produce Cat-branded telehandlers, which ended last year and higher discounts. We also experienced lower sales volume in Europe, which was partially offset by sales at AUSA. Our Vocational segment continued to deliver higher sales volume and improved pricing as we work down our backlog, achieving an adjusted operating income margin of 16.3% on $970 million of sales. Vocational's 16.3% adjusted operating income margin was a 220 basis point increase from last year, reflecting improved price-cost dynamics. The Transport segment delivered an improved operating income margin of 3.7% compared to 2.1% last year despite lower sales volume. Transport sales decreased $93 million to $479 million. Revenue from delivery vehicles represented an increasing share of Transport sales, growing from 6% a year ago, and we began shipping NGDVs to 11% during the first quarter of 2025 and 22% during the second quarter. As expected, defense vehicle volume was lower due to the wind-down of the domestic JLTV program, partially offset by higher international sales of tactical wheeled vehicles. Improved FHTV pricing, as highlighted by John, was the largest contributor of the higher operating income margin. Please turn to Slide 10. Turning to our outlook for the balance of this year. The tariff environment continues to remain dynamic. As we incorporate the impact of positives and revisions to tariff rates as well as our strong performance this quarter, we expect a more limited impact from tariffs on our business compared with the last quarter after incorporating the cost actions we have enacted. For the year, we project the impact of tariffs to be fully offset and expect our adjusted EPS for the year to be in the range of $11 per share on revenues of approximately $10.6 billion, equal to our pre-tariff guidance. We anticipate tariffs and market dynamics will impact each segment differently, leading to a slightly weaker Access adjusted operating income margin with stronger Vocational and Transport results, as shown on the slide. This remains a fluid environment, and I'm confident we have the levers across the organization to deliver these results, assuming the external macro environment remains resilient as we've seen today. We are also increasing our outlook for free cash flow from a range of $300 million to $400 million to a range of $400 million to $500 million, reflecting primarily the recently enacted tax bill and operating performance. In the second quarter, we stepped up share repurchases, and we fully expect to continue to materially increase the pace of our share buybacks across the year. I want to reiterate what we said last quarter. And you saw at our Investor Day and in our 2028 targets that we remain committed to execute on our strategies despite uncertainty introduced by tariffs. We believe the trends that support our industry-leading businesses will provide long-term growth opportunities, and we are well positioned to capitalize on these opportunities. With that, I'll turn it back over to John for some closing comments.

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Thanks, Matt. Despite the dynamic tariff environment, we're well positioned to take the necessary actions to deliver strong performance. We shared our vision for the company, our balanced and resilient business, and our path to roughly double adjusted EPS to a targeted range of $18 to $22 per share in 2028. Our performance in the second quarter is just the first step on this journey, and we are excited to share our progress with you along the way. I'll turn it back to you, Pat, for the Q&A.

Patrick N. Davidson, Senior VP and Investor Relations

Thanks, John. Operator, please begin the Q&A session.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from David Raso with Evercore.

David Michael Raso, Analyst

I have a quick question about the Access segment. In the first half, the margins were 13.3%, which implies a second half of 10.7%. The year-over-year decrementals are similar to the first half, around 38%, 39%, 40%. Regarding the pricing confidence you mentioned, could you provide more details about the incremental tariff and any cost pressures? When were those price changes implemented? How much of that is already in the backlog, and is it tied to expected orders for the remainder of the year? Your backlog coverage is at 54% of the implied second half guidance, so I want to clarify whether the pricing is already in the backlog and if you are confident you will capture it, or is it dependent on future orders where you are hoping to achieve those prices?

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Thank you for the question, David. The results for the second half are influenced by two main factors. First, there is some seasonality involved. However, we also anticipate that in the fourth quarter, there will be some impact from tariffs on our costs. We have implemented several mitigation strategies against these tariffs, which we have mentioned in previous calls. Overall, we expect continued discounts compared to last year and a challenging external environment similar to what we experienced in the first half.

David Michael Raso, Analyst

The third quarter reflects some older pricing and costs. The fourth quarter is when we expect to see the price adjustments more clearly. Apologies for that.

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Yes, that's where we'd see more of the cost elements kick in is the fourth quarter plus some of the resourcing actions and other actions we would have from our tariff mitigation.

David Michael Raso, Analyst

And then last on Vocational, the margins in the second half at 16.4% implied after 15.6% in the first half. Is that some of the pricing we've heard for a while about we have better pricing in the backlog and even with assuming some tariff input cost, is the backlog already priced where you feel very confident you have better margins in the second half than first half? And I know the backlog coverage is large. So I'm just really trying to figure out do we already have it sort of baked in.

Matthew Allen Field, Executive VP and CFO

So on Vocational, as we've talked about before and we talked about at Investor Day, we're progressively working through ramping up our capacity. And that's a big driver of the second half relative to the first half as we ramp up capacity. Obviously, there is pricing in the backlog that would come to the forefront. We would see that continue. But really, you're talking about volume growth over the second half driving improvements.

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

David, with those backlogs in vocational, we'll continue to get some modest benefits from pricing for the next two to three years.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Mig Dobre with Baird.

Mircea Dobre, Analyst

I would like to clarify your comments on tariffs. I heard you mention that you expect to completely offset the headwind, and I'm curious about how you plan to achieve that. Additionally, regarding the earlier question, it seems the fourth quarter is when you're starting to feel some increased tariff-related challenges. Are those being fully offset, or will they be a growing concern into 2026, particularly for Access equipment?

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Mig, it's John. Thanks for your question. Let me clarify. Like any manufacturer in America, we are still facing challenges with tariffs. Currently, the tariff situation is dynamic and frequently changing. Right now, we're experiencing a slightly better tariff environment than we did a quarter ago. Additionally, we are actively implementing our mitigation strategy. As I've mentioned before, most of our products sold in America are produced domestically, which provides us with an advantage. We have a local-for-local approach, aiming to enhance local production for specific regions, such as Europe and the U.S. We also negotiate diligently with our suppliers and engage in resourcing and onshoring efforts where necessary. Despite the ongoing tariff challenges, we believe we have effective strategies in place to manage and offset these tariffs. Plus, our business performance is positively contributing to help us navigate these tariff impacts, which is why we've returned to our $11 guidance.

Mircea Dobre, Analyst

Okay, I see. Then my follow-up, maybe in the Transportation segment, parsing out Q3 versus Q4 margin that's embedded into your guide? And then should we sort of think about that exit run rate as something that's sustainable into 2026 that maybe hopefully you can build upon?

Matthew Allen Field, Executive VP and CFO

Sure. So as you saw, Transport improved in the second quarter, we would expect steady improvement as we roll on to new contracts. As we mentioned on the call, we started building under the new FHTV contract. And we announced the new FMTV contract. We'll start building on that in 2026 kind of midyear or so. So I would expect to see second half performance as implied in our guide will improve and then we have additional building blocks into 2026.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley.

Angel Castillo, Analyst

I just wanted to go back to the Access equipment, a couple of things. I guess, you noted a little bit of kind of sales discounts or higher sales discounts in the quarter. Just hoping you could comment a little bit more on that and just the general kind of competitive environment. And how as you combine that with what you're hearing or seeing from customers in terms of demand and order backlog for the second half, like what gives you confidence that we won't see potential pushout or further pressure from kind of that discounting activity?

Matthew Allen Field, Executive VP and CFO

Yes. So as I mentioned, Angel, we're seeing an external environment that's about what we expected at the beginning of the year. Discounts in the range of 2% to 3% are consistent with our expectation for the year as well. Book-to-bill has kind of returned to normative levels, so we're seeing a return to normal seasonality. I'll let John comment on customers and some of the conversations we're having there. But overall, the market has been fairly resilient and really overall as we expected.

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Yes, regarding our customers, I want to emphasize that equipment utilization rates in the Access industry are good. Our customers are experiencing a solid demand coming from significant projects, particularly in infrastructure spending and data centers, which will continue for years. These data centers are substantial and require a lot of equipment. On the other hand, in private nonresidential sectors, such as building construction, we are observing some delays and pauses. While we haven't seen project cancellations, there is a noticeable tendency to wait for conditions to become more stable, including interest rates and potential tariff impacts on end markets before moving forward with projects. Overall, customers feel comfortable with the current utilization rates.

Angel Castillo, Analyst

That's very helpful. And then maybe just as it relates to those customer conversations, I guess, one, have you seen any step change in your desire to buy equipment, I guess, given the tax bill? And then could you quantify a little bit more specifically what kind of your guidance for free cash flow in terms of those tax benefits?

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Well, we think that the tax benefits in the OBBB are certainly supportive of our long-term outlook and long-term trends. It's an ongoing change to the tax law. So I don't know that we're going to see a specific spike in the near term. There is not an expiration date to what they did with regard to taxes. But we think overall, it supports the long-term health of the industry when our customers buy capital equipment.

Matthew Allen Field, Executive VP and CFO

Just building on that in terms of the free cash flow specifically, we did increase our guide from $300 million to $400 million to $400 million to $500 million. That largely reflects some of the tax bill changes on R&D credits and how those get handled.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Fisher with UBS.

Steven Michael Fisher, Analyst

Congratulations on the quarter. I would like to follow up on the Access side regarding the second half. It seems that only about half of the revenue expected for the second half is currently in backlog. Are you expecting that activity will increase during the second half of the year, leading to significant book and burn? What are your thoughts on that and what is your level of confidence?

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Thank you for the question, Steve. Currently, our backlog stands at approximately $1.2 billion, which is quite normal, particularly as we are still in the early part of the third quarter. It is typical for us to have orders already booked while also needing to secure additional orders, and this situation is not unusual for our business. We do need to book some orders in the third and fourth quarters, and this has almost always been the case. Therefore, it is not out of the ordinary at all. The $1.2 billion backlog we have now aligns with historical standards.

Steven Michael Fisher, Analyst

Okay. Fair enough. I understand that you mentioned in the release and during the call that the tariff environment is dynamic. The release stated that you're reflecting tariffs as of July 30. I'm curious about the August 1 update and what it might imply compared to what you have already assumed based on the July 30 information.

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Well, it's a dynamic environment, and we're continually updating our outlook based on changes. The good news is that some of our largest trading partners have reached some agreement with the administration regarding tariff rates, with Europe being a notable example. This provides us with some reassurance. However, there may be disturbances today, August 1, or during the next quarter, and we will adjust as needed. Overall, we feel okay because our major trading partners have established a framework for resolution.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tim Thein with Raymond James.

Timothy W. Thein, Analyst

The first question is about the Vocational business and the 20% growth in the fire segment. I'm wondering how you plan to manage the backlog in the second half of the year. Should we anticipate a similar product mix, or are there any changes to note? I assume this had a positive effect on margin last quarter, so I'm interested in whether this trend will continue in the latter half of the year.

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Yes, it is expected to continue. Pierce, our fire brand is a very strong business for us. We are continuing to invest in Pierce. It's our market-leading brand. We're really focused on continuing to increase capacity. We've got great people and a great team that is executing this. And we're confident that every quarter that goes by, we'll continue to be able to increase supply to our customers and the velocity with which we can supply. But this is a great business. And we think it's going to be for a long time, stable market, not a cyclical market. So yes, is the answer to your question.

Timothy W. Thein, Analyst

Okay. Just a quick follow-up. Regarding the Access business, the sales mix was noted as a positive. Was this primarily due to product mix, such as telehandlers being down more than Access, or was it influenced by geography with Europe being down, or both? Also, how are you thinking about that dynamic in the latter half of the year?

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Sure. So it's a number of factors in there. Partly, it would be geography mix. We saw a stronger mix in North America, which helps. We also actually had a stronger mix of independents than this time last year, even though clearly, we swung into nationals for this quarter relative to last quarter, but on a year-over-year basis, we did see a stronger mix of independents holding up as they support some of the larger projects. And then within that, there was obviously some mix among units.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria with JPMorgan.

Tami Zakaria, Analyst

I have just one question. I think I heard you say you want to steadily increase the buyback through the course of the year. So I just wanted to frame what the opportunity could be. Is there a way to think about the repo as a percentage of the free cash flow, you guided $400 million to $500 million. Is there a target that XYZ amount of that could be deployed for repo this year?

Matthew Allen Field, Executive VP and CFO

Year-to-date, we've seen about $70 million share repurchase with about $40 million of that in the second quarter. As you correctly noted, we did mention that we would step that up. Last year, we bought about $120 million. I would expect that to roughly double, maybe a little bit more than that. So I don't look at it necessarily as a percentage of free cash flow, more as just how we're executing this year and our comfort level with our execution level.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Chard Dillard with Bernstein.

Charles Albert Edward Dillard, Analyst

Can you share your expectations for orders in the second half? Specifically, what is your outlook on the contributions from national accounts versus independent ones? Additionally, could you discuss the backlog mix in relation to these factors?

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Yes. Thanks, Chard. I'm not going to get into what's in the backlog right now. Our backlog is healthy. It's normal. As I've talked about a little bit earlier. When you look at the marketplace, you see really strong healthy demand in big, big projects, big infrastructure, data centers, that kind of thing. And the nationals tend to get a lot of that business because they've got the huge fleets that can support it, and it takes a huge fleet of equipment to support that kind of activity. So I think you can assume it's a little bit heavier weighted towards nationals for the short term. And we'll see how some of the private nonresidential construction shapes up. Again, there's nothing being canceled. It's just kind of a lot of stuff on hold. So that's a little bit of a clarification for you on that.

Charles Albert Edward Dillard, Analyst

That's helpful. And can you also talk through your 3Q and 4Q expectations for Access revenues and margins? So just based on what's in backlog, is typical seasonality the right way to think about it? Or should we be thinking about something else?

Matthew Allen Field, Executive VP and CFO

Chard, so yes, you should really think about Access as returning to normal seasonality. We saw that in the first quarter. We're certainly seeing that in the second. I would expect third quarter to be a good strong quarter on a relative basis and then fourth quarter did dip down again. So that's really what we've seen historically, kind of pre-COVID and that's certainly our outlook for the year as well.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Kyle Menges with Citi.

Kyle David Menges, Analyst

I think the Vocational margin guide for this year now already gets you to the low end of your 2028 target already. So would seem to be coming in a bit ahead of the expectations laid out at the Investor Day a couple of months ago. So maybe if we could just take a step back and if you could talk a little bit about what you've seen in Vocational, what's come through the backlog and execution that has got you to this point to margins now guided to 16% for the year. And just based on what you see in the backlog and in the plan from an execution standpoint, what could incremental margins look like over the next one to three years for Vocational?

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

We really appreciate all of our businesses, but Vocational is one that is proving to be strong for the long term. These markets are not cyclical; they are quite stable. Additionally, there is high demand for technology in these areas, whether it involves fire trucks, environmental vehicles for refuse and recycling, or airport ground service equipment. Our customers are seeking advanced technology, including varying levels of autonomous functionality. At the Consumer Electronics Show, we highlighted many of our autonomous capabilities and how we utilize AI to provide insights and features on products that were previously unimaginable. These innovations align with our customers' desires, and we're successfully meeting their needs. This is driving demand for vehicles such as our new fully integrated refuse and recycling vehicle, which offers numerous productivity benefits that enhance our customers' operations. Therefore, we believe we are well-positioned in these markets to continue executing and growing, and we expect this strong performance to last for an extended time.

Kyle David Menges, Analyst

Helpful color. And then a question for Matt. Just I guess how he's thinking about capital allocation. I thought it was noteworthy increasing the expectation for share buybacks. I guess that's driven by an increase in the free cash flow expectation. But I mean the stock is also trading at 52-week highs. So I would love to hear just how Matt, you're thinking about capital allocation and share buybacks going forward.

Matthew Allen Field, Executive VP and CFO

Sure, Kyle. I believe we established a solid framework during our Investor Day. Our priorities remain the same: first, maintaining a strong investment-grade balance sheet, which we are in excellent shape with. Second, focusing on organic growth, particularly regarding the capacity additions we discussed for Vocational and the associated opportunities. Following that, even though we're currently at a 52-week high, we see ourselves as operating at a discounted multiple, making share repurchases a priority. Lastly, we will consider M&A opportunities as they come up, and we discussed our approach to M&A during our Investor Day presentation. These priorities remain unchanged, and we still believe our multiples would be higher if rated as we anticipate.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc.

Robert Stephen Barger, Analyst

Sorry, I was muted. John, with all the focus on near-term Access trends, I'm just going to ask one about the longer-term targets. To get to the 2028 midpoint requires about an 8% CAGR. And sitting here today, does that feel like a heavy lift? And can you break out how much you think comes from overall market growth, how much from share gains or new product introduction? Do you expect M&A to be part of that growth? Just holistically, how are you thinking about getting from here to there?

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

Yes, regarding the 8% compound annual growth rate you mentioned, we do not factor in any potential mergers and acquisitions that may be in our future. Our growth is entirely based on organic efforts. We believe this growth rate is realistic and attainable, given the current dynamics of our business and markets and our investment strategies. We are focused not only on launching new products within our core market but also on leveraging insights from our previous acquisitions. Furthermore, we are making innovative investments aimed at creating the job site of the future, which we presented at CES. Our efforts to enhance connectivity and provide insights through analytics, along with our exploration into machine learning and artificial intelligence for our clients, support a robust lifecycle business that aligns with the future demands of our end markets. When you consider all these factors together, we find that an 8% growth rate is quite plausible. Additionally, there are significant market trends such as the ongoing growth in data centers and infrastructure, which provide strong long-term support for demand over time.

Robert Stephen Barger, Analyst

So is this really more about the pie growing and you maintaining or growing share? Or do you expect a lot of proliferation of applications to go along with that?

John C. Pfeifer, President and CEO

We expect both to happen.

Robert Stephen Barger, Analyst

Got it. And if I can just squeeze one more in. Sorry if I missed this, but for the Transport revenue cadence in the back half, is 3Q more like the front half in terms of revenue or with a really sizable step-up in 4Q? Or will the quarters be more level loaded in terms of both revenue and margin?

Matthew Allen Field, Executive VP and CFO

So again, we would expect it to be progressively growing over the quarters. Again, as a reminder, think about us building up our production of NGDVs. And so we're steadily ramping throughout the year. So that should give increase sequentially by quarter in terms of revenues in the Transport segment. And then as we shift on to new contracts, so think of it as FHTV production this year under the new contract, that would also be a driver for higher revenue sequentially.

Operator, Operator

Mr. Davidson, we have no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to you for closing comments.

Patrick N. Davidson, Senior VP and Investor Relations

All right. Christine, thank you. Thanks, everybody, for joining us today. We reported a very strong beat and raise. Please consider that when you're looking at Oshkosh. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out to me or get back with us. We look forward to seeing you in the next quarter at conferences and have a great rest of the day and a great weekend.

Operator, Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.