Earnings Call Transcript - PKOH Q2 2024

Operator, Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Park-Ohio Second Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, the company will conduct a question-and-answer session. Today’s conference is also being recorded. Before we get started, I want to remind everyone that certain statements made on today’s call may be forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected. A list of relevant risks and uncertainties may be found in the earnings press release as well as in the company’s 2023 10-K, which was filed on March 6, 2024, with the SEC. Additionally, the company may discuss adjusted EPS, adjusted operating income and EBITDA as defined on a continuing operations or consolidated basis. These metrics are not measures of performance under generally accepted accounting principles. For a reconciliation of EPS to adjusted EPS, operated income to adjusted operated income and net income attributable to Park-Ohio common shareholders to EBITDA as defined, please refer to the company’s recent earnings release. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO. Please proceed, Mr. Crawford.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining this morning's call. We're excited to announce record revenue for the second quarter, as well as continued improvement in our margins and overall quality of earnings. We accomplished these strong results against a backdrop of stable, but mixed demand especially in our short-cycle businesses and excellent operating execution across most of the product portfolio. Our diversification once again proved to be our strength, and in particular our investments in aerospace and defense were important positive contributors. Supply Technologies and Assembly Components group, both relatively short-cycle businesses, offset some softening demand in a handful of discrete end markets, with new business and strong execution. While our Engineered Products group, a relatively long-cycle business, continued to see elevated backlogs and benefited from some improved delivery performance. While we expect some variability in our second half demand picture, in the aggregate we see our business as very stable and expect to deliver year-over-year growth. We also expect to make continual progress on our debt reduction goals, and see the second half as meaningful from a free cash flow perspective, which is both seasonal and strategic given our change in business mix and lower capital requirements after the sale last year of some automotive assets. With that I'll turn it over to Pat.

Pat Fogarty, CFO

Thank you, Matt. We are pleased with our second quarter operating results, which exceeded our expectations in most of our businesses and were highlighted by record consolidated sales of $433 million, adjusted EPS of $1.02 per share and EBITDA as defined of $39.4 million. Our strong results were driven by record sales and increased margins in our Supply Technologies segment, better-than-expected results in our Assembly Components segment and record sales and improved margins in our Engineered Products segment. Net sales of $433 million compared to $428 million, a year ago and increased 4% from $418 million last quarter. Our second quarter revenues resulted from increasing demand in certain key end markets, with notable strength in the aerospace and defense market, continued growth in our proprietary fastener manufacturing business and improved sales in our capital equipment business where strong backlogs are being converted to sales. Our consolidated gross margin was 16.9% in the quarter, up 120 basis points from the second quarter of last year. On a year-to-date basis, our gross margin increased 90 basis points to 17% compared to 16.1%, a year ago. The year-over-year improved gross margins are a direct result of ongoing efforts to improve customer pricing, reduce operating costs and increase operational efficiencies throughout each of our businesses. We continue to focus on gross margin improvement, through the implementation of value-driven initiatives in each business. Our GAAP EPS of $0.95 was up 67% in the quarter, and our adjusted EPS of $1.02 increased 23% compared to $0.83, a year ago. Year-to-date, adjusted EPS of $1.87 was up 21% compared to the same period last year. As I mentioned, we generated EBITDA of $39.4 million in the quarter, an improvement of 10% compared to a year ago. As a percentage of our sales, EBITDA margin was 9.1% in the quarter, which is our highest EBITDA margin since 2018. On a trailing 12-month basis, our EBITDA as defined totaled $145 million. The significant increase in EBITDA and free cash flow over the last 12 months have resulted in an improvement in our net debt leverage of over 30% since June 30, of last year. Consolidated operating income improved 28% to $24.6 million in the second quarter. And on an adjusted basis, operating income increased 11% to $26 million. In addition, operating income margins improved 120 basis points year-over-year, driven by continued strong profit performance in Supply Technologies and higher sales and improved margins in our Engineered Products segment. SG&A expenses were approximately $47 million and 11% of net sales in both periods. Interest costs totaled $12 million during the quarter compared to $11.1 million last year, driven by higher interest rates in the current year. Our effective tax rate was 19% in the quarter, which reflects the ongoing benefits from research and development tax credits and other tax planning initiatives to reduce our overall effective tax rate worldwide. As a result, we have lowered our expected full year effective tax rate to between 21% and 23% to reflect the impact of these tax strategies. During the quarter, we used operating cash of $3 million, primarily driven by increased working capital to support sales growth in certain businesses, and due to the timing of completion of capital equipment projects. Similar to prior years, we expect strong operating and free cash flow in the second half of the year, driven by continued strong EBITDA and lower working capital levels. Our liquidity continues to be strong and totaled $161 million at June 30, which consisted of approximately $60 million of cash on hand and $101 million of unused borrowing capacity under our various banking arrangements. Turning now to our segment results. Supply Technologies generated record net sales of $203 million in the second quarter, representing a 3% increase year-over-year. We continue to see strong customer demand in several key end markets led by a 56% increase in sales in the aerospace and defense market. Average daily sales also improved in the heavy-duty truck, off-road construction, electrical distribution and consumer electronics end markets. In addition, sales in our fastener manufacturing business grew 12% year-over-year as global demand for our proprietary products continues to be robust. Although revenues in many end markets continue to trend positively, slowing demand is expected in the semiconductor, agricultural equipment and certain consumer end markets throughout the rest of the year. Operating income in the segment totaled $19 million, an increase of 23% year-over-year. Operating margins were 9.4% and an improvement of 160 basis points from 7.8% a year ago. The higher profitability in the quarter was driven by an increase in sales of higher-margin products, lower operating costs in our supply chain business and continued strong demand in our proprietary fastener business. On a year-to-date basis, sales in this segment were a record $400 million and operating income was a record $38.5 million. Operating margin was 9.6%, an increase of 210 basis points compared to the 2023 period. The strong quarterly and year-to-date results in this segment reflect our continued focus on expanding product margins, increasing sales in our higher-margin industrial supply business and growing revenues in our proprietary fastener manufacturing business. In our Assembly Components segment, sales were $103 million in the quarter compared to $112 million a year ago. The year-over-year decrease in sales was driven by lower unit volumes and end-of-life programs and lower product pricing on certain legacy programs, which partially offset the sales growth on other OEM platforms. Segment operating income decreased to $6.9 million from $8.4 million a year ago. Profitability in the second quarter was impacted by the lower unit volumes and product pricing, which more than offset margin expansion on several products resulting from implemented margin improvement initiatives. On a year-to-date basis, sales were $210 million compared to $222 million a year ago, and adjusted operating income margin was 7.4% compared to 7.7% a year ago. In this segment, we continue to implement profit improvement initiatives, which will enhance operating margins in future quarters. Key initiatives include increasing customer pricing on low-margin products, improving operational efficiencies, such as scrap reduction programs, increasing cycle times, reducing operating costs through the automation of certain processes and increasing our rubber mixing capacity. In our Engineered Products segment, sales were a record $127 million and increased 7% compared to $119 million a year ago, driven by higher demand in both our industrial equipment business and our Forged Machine Products group. Higher sales in the Industrial Equipment Group resulted from strong sales of new capital equipment primarily in North America and Europe. During the quarter, new equipment sales in North America grew 19% year-over-year. Also, sales of aftermarket parts and services in North America grew 12% year-over-year, while aftermarket sales in Europe and Asia were stable compared to a strong prior year quarter. During the second quarter, new equipment bookings were approximately $50 million, and equipment backlog continues to be strong totaling $173 million, an increase of 7% compared to backlogs on December 31. Revenues in our Forged Machine Products business increased 8% year-over-year driven by increased unit volumes on products sold into the aerospace and defense industry, which more than offset weaker demand for rail forgings, which impacted our results. During the quarter, operating income in this segment was $6.3 million compared to $3.2 million a year ago. And on an adjusted basis, operating income increased 20% year-over-year to $7.3 million in the quarter. The increase in profitability year-over-year was driven by higher sales and improved margins, primarily in our Industrial Equipment Group. Compared to the first quarter operating income almost doubled, reflecting significant operational improvements in the current quarter. In our Forged and Machine products business profit flow-through from the 8% year-over-year sales increase was offset by lower margins isolated in our forging operation in Arkansas. We have taken several actions to improve the results in this plan including personnel changes and operational improvements to reduce equipment downtime and increase production efficiencies. In the year-to-date period, sales in this segment were $240 million, an increase of 2% compared to the 2023 period. Adjusted operating income was $11.1 million compared to $13.1 million a year ago with the decline due to lower margins in our Forged Machine Products business. And finally, corporate expenses totaled $7.6 million during the quarter compared to $7.8 million a year ago. And year-to-date, were approximately 2% of net sales in both periods. Overall, our results in the second quarter were strong and our results year-to-date have exceeded our expectations. With respect to our full-year guidance, we now expect year-over-year revenue growth to range from 2% to 4% due to slowing but stable demand in certain end markets. We continue to expect year-over-year improvement in adjusted EPS and EBITDA as defined. Now, I'll turn the call back over to Matt.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Great. Thank you very much, Pat. We'll now open the line for questions.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from the line of Dave Storms with Stonegate. Please proceed with your question.

Dave Storms, Analyst

Good morning.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Good morning, Dave.

Dave Storms, Analyst

Just hoping we could start with maybe some of the puts and takes on guidance. I know previously you were guiding to mid-single-digits. It looks like that might be coming in at the lower end of that previous guidance between 2% and 4% on the top line. Are there any end markets that you're seeing as have an outsized importance for this guidance, anything that could put you on the higher or lower end? Really any color here would be great.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

It's a great question. Overall, the business-to-business capital industry manufacturing side of our operations remains robust. However, we are observing different trends among our consumer-facing customers. Predicting the future is somewhat challenging at this moment due to various factors, but it aligns with what you might read in the Wall Street Journal. The notable aspect is the contrast in market performance, particularly in sectors related to aerospace and defense, steel, electrical, and certain areas of the automotive business where adjustments are being made, which all continue to show positive signs. In contrast, consumer-facing segments are facing challenges, leading to significant differences in growth rates. Our forecast isn't dramatically altered, but we must acknowledge the emerging risks on the consumer side compared to three months ago, as things seem a bit more fragile. Despite this, I want to emphasize that we believe the positives still outweigh the negatives, and we are confident that the second half of the year will be stronger than last year.

Dave Storms, Analyst

Understood. That's very helpful. Thank you. And then just looking at Engineered Products, it had a really strong quarter kind of top to bottom. I know you've mentioned in the past that EP is really an important driver for the company. How would you categorize the sustainability of this quarter's performance in Engineered Products?

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Let me give Pat a moment to consider that while I address the simpler part. For those familiar with our company, it is clear that Engineered Products has been and will again be the main contributor to the quality of earnings in this business. This segment possesses some of our most unique assets and best brands, along with a good mix of aftermarket and original equipment sales. It has historically been a strong performer regarding both sales and quality of earnings, despite its long-cycle nature. While we have faced some execution challenges, which we have discussed in previous calls—such as retirements, knowledge gaps, supply chain issues, and geopolitical factors that affect sourcing—we are actively working to resolve these. We are gradually improving, but it's not a quick fix. The problem has not been a lack of demand but rather execution. We have made significant personnel changes, invested in training, and altered our leadership structure. We are addressing this from all angles. Historically, this business has been underperforming significantly, and while that doesn’t set a low benchmark, we anticipate that there will be meaningful improvements, albeit potentially inconsistent, in the medium term.

Pat Fogarty, CFO

Yes, Dave, this is Pat. I agree with Matt's comments. I think when you look at that segment of our business we have seen meaningful improvement in our Industrial Equipment Group. The backlogs have been strong. The bookings have been pretty consistent quarter-by-quarter. And the operational performance has improved to the point where we're approaching those double-digit operating income margins in that business. The acquisition of EMA is in the transition into our business is underway. We get a lot of good things to happen throughout Europe as a result. They are performing as planned right now and their backlogs continue to be strong. The challenges that we've been faced with have been isolated in our forging group. As Matt mentioned we've made meaningful changes across the board in leadership not only on the plant floor but across all aspects and all disciplines of the business and expect our customer base to continue to support that business going forward. So we expect improvement there and to get back to those historic levels that Matt mentioned. So that gives you a little bit more color, but we feel we're heading in the right direction there and we expect continued improvement.

Dave Storms, Analyst

Understood. That's great color. Thank you. I’ll get back in queue.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Steve Barger with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Barger, Analyst

Thanks. Good morning.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Hey, Steve. How are you?

Steve Barger, Analyst

Okay. I think Pat mentioned in his prepared remarks increased pricing on some low-margin product lines. What percentage of the portfolio do you think is not priced for the value that you provide? And can you accelerate price actions in those areas?

Pat Fogarty, CFO

Steve, this is Pat. Yes, the answer is, yes. And we've proven over the last few years that we've been able to get pricing across to our customer base. And as we've talked about the labor inflation that we've experienced has been permanent and we're still working to recover much of that. The raw material side of price increases has been mature for customers to understand. But we continue to look for ways to increase product pricing especially within the automotive segment as volumes are lower than what was expected. Not going to be a material improvement but coupled with operational efficiencies value-driven, all of which will be a driver towards improved margins in that business.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Steve, I believe that if there is a positive aspect to COVID, it is that the leadership in our business, particularly at Supply Technologies, acted early and thoughtfully across a complex range of products, addressing pricing aggressively. We faced some challenges, especially in the automotive segment, which resulted in some losses. However, we have stabilized the situation. The good news is, as Pat mentioned, while there are opportunities, they are more limited now. Nevertheless, the existing inflation in the market and ongoing demand in certain areas allow us to stay focused and apply the lessons we've learned while remaining vigilant about additional volatility, such as freight costs. The dynamics have shifted positively. That said, I agree with Pat that the current opportunities are not as significant as they were in the past couple of years.

Steve Barger, Analyst

Yes. As you think about the new business that you're quoting, do you have more flexibility in there vis-à-vis escalators and that sort of thing than you did historically?

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Yes, that's an interesting question. There have been challenges in the marketplace regarding the traditional design of products and relationships. I can say that by deemphasizing the automotive business through asset sales, we've faced the most significant pressure. I've discussed how we've evolved our business model to ensure more sustainable quality of earnings and free cash flow through the business cycle. There's no question that this evolution has benefited our supply basis and our business mix. However, we collaborate with some of the largest and most sophisticated companies, and they always seek the best deals. It's crucial for us to find common ground. We have spent considerable time in recent years reducing our cost to serve, and we continue to do so through restructuring and adopting new software tools and technologies. Our current business positioning is significantly improved, allowing us to win new business at attractive pricing that enhances our business model. As we begin to see some progress in the second half of the year and into 2025 with these new blocks of business, I anticipate better margins. This improvement will be partly due to the changing marketplace and partly due to our reduced cost to serve.

Steve Barger, Analyst

Yes. No, that's good color. And I guess as you think about your sales force, do they have an understanding of the hurdle rate required to bid new business? Do they have the tools they need to make sure that you do walk away from business that is less favorable, when it doesn't make sense to take it?

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Yes, there’s no question. The size and nature of some orders and long-term agreements in ACG and engineered components certainly capture the attention of our entire executive team. Supply technology is our most complex business, with many people involved in pricing, and interestingly, some of our best opportunities come from smaller accounts. We are continually investing in business processes to identify low-margin or underperforming accounts and other areas. We are also investing heavily in technology tools to minimize errors. You’re hitting on an important point. Most of our portfolio consists of big orders that attract attention from large companies and involve long-term contracts. We strive to be best in class by ensuring our team makes the right decisions even for smaller orders in Supply Technologies. I’m confident that we are significantly better today than we were one or two years ago, and I believe we will improve further in the next couple of years due to our ongoing investments. I feel quite comfortable about this, and while I don’t want to call it a silver lining of COVID, we have to address pricing comprehensively. It’s essential to improve in this area.

Pat Fogarty, CFO

I just wanted to add that when we assess hurdle rates, whether it involves the sales teams or the executive teams managing the business, we conduct a thorough analysis, looking at internal rates of return, capital returns, and any necessary capital. These hurdle rates are clearly defined for each business. This process has evolved with both the financial and sales teams in each sector. Overall, I feel very positive about our current position as we explore opportunities everywhere.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Steve, I want to mention one final point. When we reflect on our areas of underperformance, it isn't due to inadequate quoting or a lack of understanding of our hurdle rates. The root cause has been poor execution. We've noticed this particularly in Engineered Products. While it's evident in other areas as well, the impact of retirements and the loss of knowledge have hindered our ability to fulfill some orders as anticipated. I'm not convinced this is a pricing or visibility problem; rather, it seems to be an execution challenge that we are actively working to improve every day.

Steve Barger, Analyst

Understood. And Pat, you mentioned something. Please continue.

Pat Fogarty, CFO

I was just going to add that when we look at bookings, what we've seen in the quarter are $50 million. And really across several of our brands in both Europe and in North America is where we're seeing the most strength. Backlogs continue to be good and the operational improvements we saw at least sequentially, we believe are sustainable and having better throughput through the plants with a strong backlog is good and it takes out a lot of the inefficiencies that we see in the plants.

Steve Barger, Analyst

Yes. And I guess that's a good segue to my last question. I heard you say free cash flow will be better in the back half, typically is. But did you say what you expect for full-year free cash flow realization?

Pat Fogarty, CFO

No I did not comment on that but we expect second half free cash flow to be $25 million to $30 million. And year-to-date, we're at $13 million. So, those are hurdles that we expect to exceed, but I'm comfortable laying that out for you right now.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Steve, I'm not going to miss the opportunity to say, achieving record results after having sold a business that represented about 12% on average of our sales, but 20% to 25% of our CapEx through the business cycle has changed our mix from a cash flow perspective permanently. So, I'm not saying we have enough good ideas we may spend a little more here, but we are fundamentally a different business model from a cash flow perspective post sale.

Steve Barger, Analyst

Yes, that highlights my point about some of the pricing issues. By removing low-margin businesses that face structural pricing challenges, the overall portfolio improves. I believe there are additional opportunities to follow this path. You provide significant value to your customers, so if you're not receiving adequate compensation, it raises the question of why you are continuing to do so.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

You're preaching to the choir. And as I said, we're better today than we were last year and we're going to be better tomorrow than we are today. So, we are making the investments necessary to do that. And I would again highlight the use of technology as a key driver, particularly at Supply Technologies and making those decisions. The devil is in the details, but your point is absolutely well made, but we've made some real strides in this area and we expect to continue to improve. But again, we've done it a couple of different ways. So one structurally, we just got out of a business that was too difficult in this area. And we've moved to businesses where your point is we've got a little more leverage, a little more ability, a little more opportunity to get paid fairly. And that was very difficult. Our customers are big and tough and we got to do the right thing by them. So this isn't a straight line.

Steve Barger, Analyst

Appreciate it.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Jamie Wilen with Wilen Management. Please proceed with your question.

Unidentified Analyst, Analyst

Hi. You talked about the pickup of business in the aerospace and defense side, could you give us a little clarity on that? Are these new customers, existing customers with new projects, the longevity of these projects? And how would you characterize the margins on the business you're picking up versus your existing business?

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Yes, I'll kick off. I'm sure Pat has a thing to say. One of the nice things about seeing some additional activity in aerospace and defense, it does touch a large percentage of our product portfolio. And that's good news. So we have seen significant discrete opportunities in our Engineered Products groups related to defense, particularly in capital equipment for building things like munitions and so forth. So very discrete there. Also on the aerospace side and defense side as well, but aerospace in particular, you may know that five or six years ago this became an area that we felt was a great adjacency for Supply Technologies and that those customers would appreciate our service model and our brand. And so that business has grown nicely. We had to sort of fostered a bit and supported a little bit during the more difficult times. But now that they're trying to reorient their and improve their supply chains, I think we're in a great place. So we've seen the benefit of there in supply technology. So we've seen a fairly diverse and impressive and I think sustainable improvement in those areas.

Pat Fogarty, CFO

Jamie, this is Pat. Matt mentioned the supply technology business and we think about the OEMs on the commercial side of the business, Airbus and their Tier 1 suppliers, we're supplying product to. And the growth opportunity is to supply more product, different types of Class C componentry into those various programs. The margins typically are higher than other end market margins. So that business continues to grow and we're seeing tremendous opportunities not only throughout Europe but also here in the States for those products.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

When talking about how it impacts our broader portfolio, I should have talked about our Forge Group. We should highlight there that for a while, we were significantly – or past due and unable to deliver because of the struggle to get aerospace-grade alloys to the forge, which the whole industry was seeing and gets talked about a lot at the highest levels at Airbus and Boeing. Those supply chains have improved a little bit. So we're able now to convert some of those orders. So again, I don't see this as a flash in the pan. I see this as an industry that is reinvesting in on the defense side and I see it as a commercial side that is just only beginning to sort out their supply chain issues and we want to be there to support it.

Unidentified Analyst, Analyst

Excellent. Thank you.

Operator, Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to management for closing remarks.

Matthew Crawford, Chairman, President and CEO

Thank you again for your time today, and I want to thank all of the Park-Ohio family of people that come to work every day and make this happen. That's what it's really all about. And we're again very pleased with the results. But at the same time, there's plenty of room for opportunity for improvement. Steve, you gave me a nice opportunity to talk about how our business model is evolving and we expect continued deleveraging, continued improvement in quality of earnings, which to us means higher aggregate margins and better sustainable business on the free cash flow side. So that's where we're going, and I think this is a nice step in the right direction. Thanks, and have a great day.

Operator, Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a wonderful day.