Earnings Call Transcript
PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO /OR/ (POR)
Earnings Call Transcript - POR Q3 2024
Operator, Operator
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Portland General Electric Company's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today is Friday, October 25, 2024. This call is being recorded, and as such, all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks there will be a question-and-answer period. For opening remarks, I will turn the call over to Portland General Electric's Manager of Investor Relations, Nick White. Please go ahead, sir.
Nick White, Manager of Investor Relations
Thank you, GG. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Before we begin this morning, I would like to remind you that we have prepared a presentation to supplement our discussion, which we'll be referencing throughout the call. The slides are available on our website at investors.portlandgeneral.com. Referring to slide two, some of our remarks this morning will constitute forward-looking statements. We caution you that such statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from our expectations. For a description of some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially, please refer to our earnings press release and our most recent periodic reports on Forms 10-K and 10-Q, which are available on our website. Turning to slide three. Leading our discussion today are Maria Pope, President and CEO; and Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO. Following their prepared remarks, we will open the line for your questions. Now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Maria.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Thank you, Nick, and good morning. I'm happy you can all join us today. Our third quarter reflects PGE's focus on operational excellence and delivering consistent results. Starting with slide four. For the quarter, we reported GAAP net income of $94 million or $0.90 per diluted share. This compares with third quarter 2023 GAAP net income of $47 million or $0.46 per diluted share. Three key drivers underpinned our results: first, improved power cost performance driven by PGE's acquisition of renewable resources and regional power market stability. This is despite experiencing very low hydro conditions and summer heat. Certainly a significant improvement from tough third quarters of the last several years. Second, execution of thoughtful cost and risk management work, as well as overall strong performance across our operations. And third, continued robust demand growth led by semiconductors and data center manufacturers and customers. Due to our solid third quarter results and outlook for the full year, we expensed a portion of the costs related to the January 2024 storm and damage deferral. Given the application of an earnings test, this resulted in a charge to third quarter earnings of $0.11 per share. Joe will cover this more in detail in his remarks. For the full year, we expect to deliver results in the upper half of our original guidance range. We are narrowing our 2024 adjusted earnings guidance to $3.08 to $3.18 per diluted share. Turning to slide five, we entered 2024 focused on solidifying our energy portfolio by adding 500 megawatts of new renewable hydro capacity, integrating additional wind, and optimizing our generation assets. Our results this quarter reflect the importance of these investments and work. Similarly, energy capacity and additions across the West have helped steady energy markets, even with significantly below hydro conditions and the record-setting west-wide hot summer temperatures, particularly in July. We strategically deployed our generation fleet and procured energy across Western markets to offset the impacts during the most challenging periods. Our power operations and generation teams did an outstanding job. We also saw strong performance from the Clearwater Wind Development officially commissioned in September, which operates at a high capacity factor and provides important diversity to our generation mix. Notably, there have already been 25 days this year where, with the addition of Clearwater, PGE generated more than a gigawatt of wind power. This is equivalent to serving nearly all of our residential customers with wind-generated energy. We're excited to complement Clearwater's success with the incoming Constable and Seaside battery storage projects, providing even more flexibility and reliability to our system. Clean energy remains a customer focus and a priority, from high tech and data centers to hospitals, municipalities, and individual residential customers. For the 15th year in a row, PGE's voluntary renewable program was ranked number one. More than 25% of our residential and business customers chose to enroll in our green future program. We also made important progress in securing the next generation of reliable, clean, and cost-effective resources. In September, in coordination with the independent evaluator, we submitted the 2023 RFP final shortlist for acknowledgement by the OPUC. Included on the shortlist are a mix of solar and battery projects that provide critical resource diversity and capacity options. All of these projects help advance our clean energy goals while also balancing reliability and affordability. We've structured this list into two groups at the request of stakeholders. We've prioritized and begun negotiations with the top performing bids from Group A, as negotiations continue and we advance through the regulatory process, we will determine if engagement with the remaining shortlist projects from Group B is necessary. OPUC acknowledgement of the shortlist is expected by late November and contracts are expected to be completed throughout 2025. We received numerous other bids that, with continued refinement, could be important portfolio additions in the future. Given our significant need for clean energy and capacity, we expect to file an integrated resource plan update and to conduct a follow-on RFP in 2025. Turning to the 2025 rate review. Since our last call, PGE and parties have exchanged additional testimony and participated in hearings earlier this month. We appreciate the productive dialogue held across multiple settlement discussions during the year. PGE remains laser-focused on keeping our customers' prices as low as possible by driving operational efficiencies. Our third quarter results, which Joe will cover shortly, reflect this focused approach as we prioritize work that impacts power costs, O&M, capital, and reduces overall risk. This includes vegetation management that addresses both wildfire and winter storms, power plant and gas storage optimization, and progress on our capital plan to replace aging infrastructure, particularly across our T&D systems and to enhance grid reliability. We also continue to aggressively pursue and successfully capture billions of dollars in federal grants, production tax credits, and investment tax credits, both ourselves and with partners. Most recently, the North Plains Connector, a project led by Grid United, received a $700 million federal grant from the U.S. Department of Energy to the Grid Resilience and Innovation Partnership, which includes upgrades for the existing coal strip transmission line. These grants, as well as investment and production tax credits from our clean energy projects benefit all parts of our business. This includes generation assets, long-lead transmission, distribution enhancement, transportation electrification, workforce development, and more. This powerful, game-changing federal support is helping us keep customer prices as low as possible while advancing the energy transformation and accelerating technology and innovation. While these advancements are critical, let me now turn to the safety of our coworkers, customers, and communities, our top priority. Extreme weather, natural disasters, and in particular across the West, wildfires. These are not just a utility issue but a societal one. Addressing wildfire risk requires maximizing the investments in our capabilities and continued sharpening of our mature year-round wildfire mitigation program. It also requires collaboration with federal, state, and local agencies and actively supporting potential regulatory and legislative solutions at the state and national level. We are working with partners and policymakers on potential legislation to ensure that utilities in Oregon and across the country can continue providing safe, reliable, and affordable electricity service. Addressing this risk in a holistic fashion is critical for customers, communities, employees, and shareholders—all stakeholders. Finally, turning to demand growth. Year-to-date industrial demand has grown more than 9%, compared to 2023, extending the trajectory we've observed for the last five years. This further highlights the attractiveness of our service territory to a diverse customer base, including data centers and an ecosystem of semiconductor research and manufacturing customers. By working closely with our customers, communities, and policymakers, we've maintained long-term visibility to these trends. This has informed much of our strategy. Meeting these growing energy needs reinforces our decision to join the Energy Day-Ahead Market. This will help lower power costs, increase resilience, and improve access to diverse resources and clean energy across the West. We are also focused on enhancing our transmission capabilities in multiple phases and areas. First, maximizing performance and alleviating bottlenecks in our existing rights of way. And second, working closely with partners on lines adjacent to our service territory, like the collaboration with the North Plains Connector, to execute a reliable and affordable clean energy transition and extend the reach of the Western network. This work is critical as we continue to support customer growth and advance our shared decarbonization goals. Looking ahead, this quarter's strong operations, focus on execution, and robust demand growth drove our performance. We integrated a significant amount of renewable resources, experienced stable power markets, and served our growing customer base. We remain focused on providing safe, reliable, and affordable clean energy. With that, I'll turn it over to Joe. Thank you.
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. Our Q3 results show improved regional power cost conditions and strong demand growth from our industrial customers. We faced warmer weather than usual throughout the quarter, though slightly cooler than last summer. In Q3 2024, total loads increased by 3.9% overall and 5.3% when adjusted for weather, compared to Q3 2023. Residential loads were down 1.2% year-over-year but rose 0.9% when weather adjusted, with the residential customer count up by 2.1%. However, this was somewhat countered by energy efficiency initiatives leading to reduced usage per customer. Commercial loads remained largely flat, showing a slight drop of 1% or 0.1% adjusted for weather, primarily due to energy efficiency. The industrial sector saw substantial growth this quarter compared to last year's modest increase, with industrial load rising 15.7% or 16.4% when adjusted for weather. This growth is driven by demand from digital infrastructure and semiconductor clients, showing our region's potential for further load opportunities. As a result, we maintain our 2024 weather-adjusted load growth guidance of 2% to 3% and our long-term load growth guidance of 2% through 2027, which we will revisit during our next Integrated Resource Plan, expected to be filed in Q1 2025. Looking at our quarter-over-quarter financial performance, we noted a $0.10 increase in revenues mainly due to higher deliveries to industrial customers. Our earnings per share rose by $0.45 due to various factors, including a $0.07 increase from power cost detriments that reversed from last year's Q3 and a $0.38 rise attributed to favorable power cost conditions across our region. Compared to a challenging Q3 2023, we faced much less market volatility and operated within a lower price environment, with average Midsea Day-Ahead Peak prices over 40% lower than last year. This improved market stability stemmed from several factors, including higher gas and hydro storage levels due to a milder winter, significant contributions from new battery and solar projects, and weather patterns in early July that helped prevent price spikes. The renewables we added to our portfolio, including new hydro capacity and contributions from Clearwater Winds, performed consistently over the summer, helping us achieve lower-than-expected power costs. We also saw a $0.05 decrease in operating maintenance expenses, net of improved recovery and deferrals associated with service restoration during the heat events of the quarter. Other items contributed an additional $0.05 increase, including higher returns on non-qualified benefit trusts and a reduction in income tax expenses owing to tax credit impacts. Lastly, we noted an $0.11 decrease from a deferral release linked to the January 2024 storm damage. By the end of Q3, we forecasted a full-year regulated return on equity above the 9.5% threshold relevant for our emergency storm deferral earnings test. Consequently, we reduced that deferral from $45 million to $28 million and recorded a corresponding charge in Q3. Given our expectations for improved results in 2024, the storm costs we would have passed on to customers are likely to decrease. We will reassess this earnings test and its impact based on the actual regulated return on equity at year-end, which is specific to 2024 due to a significant storm deferral this year. Regarding our capital forecast, we've made significant progress on our 2024 plan, though we have slightly revised our CapEx forecast for 2024 and 2025 based on year-to-date progress. We are committed to enhancing our capital program to support customer growth, reliability, and decarbonization. Our battery projects, Constable and Seaside, are on schedule to launch at the end of 2024 and mid-2025, respectively. We’re also pleased with the nearly 1.7 gigawatts of solar and battery projects shortlisted from our 2023 RFP, noting our forecast does not factor in potential build transfer RFP projects, which will be updated following bid selections and contract executions. We anticipate final contracts will be agreed upon in 2025, with all projects expected to be operational by the end of 2027. On to our liquidity and financing summary, as of September 30, our total available liquidity exceeded $1 billion. Our investment-grade credit rating and strong balance sheet remain unchanged from previous reports. In Q3, we utilized $100 million from our legacy $300 million ATM program. We aim to draw the remaining funds in Q4 to support our base capital plan. I want to emphasize that we have met our equity needs to sustain our 2024 base capital plan and manage our capital structure. Any further actions in 2024 will focus on maintaining robust credit metrics or de-risking our long-term financing strategy. We foresee debt issuances up to $300 million in the last quarter to finance capital expenditures. As we noted before, we anticipate an annual equity need of around $300 million from 2024 to 2026 to support ongoing capital investments and strengthen our balance sheet, expecting this need to taper off post-2026. We are closely evaluating our equity needs in relation to potential RFP investments as contract negotiations advance. We expect to align financing RFP ownership opportunities with our authorized capital structure, maintaining our commitment to options that maximize customer value, minimize dilution, uphold strong credit ratings, and manage our capital structure. Regarding the 2025 rate case, we are in the final statements phase. Settlement discussions have been ongoing, and hearings were held in early October, with brief filings scheduled for late October and early November, leading up to oral arguments in mid-November. For the 2025 annual update tariff, we have reached a preliminary agreement to address all remaining issues and anticipate filing a stipulation shortly. Reflecting on the quarter as we approach Q4, our results demonstrate the effectiveness of our long-term strategy. Our team has maintained a strong focus on executing our plan through September, enhancing certainty in our 2024 results while laying groundwork for 2025. We are dedicated to maximizing benefits from favorable market conditions observed in Q3. While the power cost processes reset annually, we acknowledge that improved weather and market conditions have eased volatility in 2024, setting the stage for potential alignment closer to an established baseline in 2025. Therefore, we've implemented strategic actions to secure the value of advantageous positions while minimizing risks ahead of the winter season. Some favorable elements of our 2024 plan have shifted from Q4 to Q3, and we anticipate less favorable power cost conditions in Q4 2024 compared to last year, which had allowed us to outperform relative to our annual update tariff assumptions. Current outlook for Q4 2024 suggests moderately unfavorable conditions against the tariff. Nonetheless, we remain confident in achieving strong performance for the full year, narrowing our adjusted earnings guidance from $2.98 to $3.18 per share to a range of $3.08 to $3.18. Based on our forecasts, achieving results at the top of this range would likely align us with authorized regulatory return on equity levels. Any favorable outcomes could be influenced by the deferral of the earnings test mentioned earlier. Moreover, we are reaffirming our long-term earnings and dividend growth guidance of 5% to 7%, underpinned by the strength of our service area, robust capital projects, and improvements in our operational performance. As we look toward the close of 2024, our commitment to delivering clean, reliable energy while keeping costs low for our customers remains steadfast. We continue to prioritize operational excellence, ensuring we provide maximum value to our customers, shareholders, and the communities we serve. Now, operator, we are ready for questions.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Richard Sunderland from JPMorgan.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Good morning, Richard.
Richard Sunderland, Analyst
Hi, good morning. Thanks for the time today. A couple of different topics to hit on the storm deferral release. Just wanted to understand if that's just NVTC favorability driving you to earn above that 9.5% ROE test? Or are there other factors? And it sounds like this is the case, but could a market improvement this quarter relative to today's expectations drive the release of the remaining deferral?
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
So to your first part, yes, it's mainly driven by favorable NVTC performance. And to the extent that we were to continue to outperform our expectations there would be a commensurate reduction in that deferral.
Richard Sunderland, Analyst
Understood. Very clear there. Separately, Maria, you mentioned in the scripts cost work that you have been executing on. I'm curious how you see O&M trending going forward. Do you expect continued increases? Are there areas to offset some of the inflation elsewhere?
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Sure. It's a great question. We have been investing significantly in our wildfire resilience and ensuring that our system is safe particularly in our high fire risk zones. We have also done quite a bit of work to drive efficiencies across our operations. And with the additional growth that we're seeing, we're able to spread those fixed costs over more customers. And so we are absolutely seeing efficiencies across our operations. That includes also our deployment of capital as well. We had good success with some of the opportunities we've seen in the IT area as we're keeping head count largely flat while we're growing our base of work and serving more customers.
Richard Sunderland, Analyst
Got it. And just to squeeze in one last one. You talked about 50-50 equity funding on the RFP CapEx. I know that's been out there for a while. Curious if you see ITCs potentially helping with the funding, meaning lower equity needs because of those ITCs?
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Absolutely. And you should know that we put it in the queue. There's quite a bit of ITCs and PTCs associated with the Clearwater Wind farm as well as with the battery storage that we're bringing online. But it's an important part of our financing going forward in addition to all of the federal grants that we've received. It's really a way that we can bring those federal dollars to the state of Oregon and keep customer prices as low as possible as we lead in a clean energy transition.
Richard Sunderland, Analyst
Great. Thanks for the time today.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza from Guggenheim Partners.
Shar Pourreza, Analyst
Hey, guys.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Good morning, Shar.
Shar Pourreza, Analyst
Good morning. Maria, I think that the prefiling deadline for the upcoming long session, the state legislature, is in the few weeks around December 13th. Can you speak to any preliminary discussions around wildfire legislation at this point, be it a fund like we've seen in other states or some legal protections? So maybe just a bit more color from your prepared? Thanks.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Sure. Shar, as you know, we have long been focused on wildfire work, not only for all the work that we do in our service territory and across our operations operationally to reduce the risk of fire. But we've also been advocating both at the federal and the state level for appropriate legislation for changing some of the rules with regards to working in the rights of way as well as how liabilities are handled. We'll continue to focus that work, and we are working extensively with parties at the national level and in particular, at the state level. I think you'll see multiple bills with regards to wildfire at the coming session. And that's really important because we've had a lot of forest companies in this state as well as other land management agencies. And there is a wide concern over the threat of wildfire, and we saw significant fires this past summer in the eastern part of our state, none of significance in our service territory.
Shar Pourreza, Analyst
Got it. Perfect. And I know Maria, you touched a little bit on the industrial growth. But just in light of some of the issues Intel's having. Can you maybe speak to the durability of industrial growth you're seeing? 50% of that mix is semiconductors. I guess what percentage of that is Intel?
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Sure. So broadly speaking, 15% of semiconductor manufacturing takes place in our service territory, not just in the state of Oregon, which has a digital manufacturing capacity. There are five key companies that operate in our area on semiconductors including Analog Devices, Lam Research, Microchip as well as Intel. About more than half of Intel's patents were created here and other engineers and scientists that led to those advancements in their science have really resulted in an ecosystem of semiconductor manufacturing in this region that the state has supported significantly, and we do not expect any changes in that and the strength of the manufacturing that we see out of the Intel campus. We also are seeing growing areas that are adjacent to semiconductor manufacturing, including air separation companies and EDA research and development companies. We are also seeing a significant amount of growth in data centers, as you know. So it's a balanced growth portfolio. About half of our load today in this high-tech space is semiconductors, 20% in the fastest growing is data centers, and 30% is general manufacturing, but very much with a high-tech focus.
Shar Pourreza, Analyst
Got it. And then just one last one for me. Just some commentary in the RFP docket around transmission congestion, it just impacted kind of your ability to interconnect sufficient resources to hit that 2030 target. Does the transmission CapEx you have in plan for '28 relieve that? Or is there more work to be done in '29 and beyond as we're thinking about that potential spend increase?
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Yes. Absolutely. There's no question, and that's one of the reasons that we separated out our CapEx spending because we need to do more to relieve that congestion, and we have a focused group of leaders within the company who are getting that work done. We're also partnering with entities across the state. One of the grants that we have received is $250 million in conjunction with the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs to expand the line that we own between here and the reservation where we co-own hydro facilities for significant additional renewable development. I mentioned on my prepared remarks, the North Plains Connector. But I think you'll see transmission projects that we will continue to execute and partner with others across the region. It's important that we are able to access renewables that in many parts of the country are being curtailed because there is not enough transmission to bring those to customer usages. So in many instances, there's no incremental generation costs associated with the construction and building out of that transmission network.
Shar Pourreza, Analyst
Got it. Perfect. Thanks, guys. That answers it. Congrats on the results, and see you in a couple of weeks.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Thank you. Nice to talk to you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella from Barclays.
Nicholas Campanella, Analyst
Good morning. Hi, I like how you said Campanella there. Hey, so I just want to ask on the rate case, you settled the AUT. Just what's the ability to kind of settle cap structure, ROE and other components at this point? Are you kind of willing to take that to a fully litigated route? And then just thinking forward as we go forward in the state, do you see settlements still as something that you can continue to get done in next rate cases? Or just how should we kind of think about that? Because in my time covering the company, it's one of the few times that you haven't settled. Thank you.
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
Good morning, Nick. This is Joe. So as it relates to the case. We continue to have open dialogue and the settlement window is open, but in reality, we haven't been far apart, but we haven't been able to settle. So at this point, we're comfortable writing either a settlement or working this through to litigation. We have built a well-structured case with the evidence in that. So we continue to be hopeful that we'll find a way here to settle some of these items, but we also, at the same time, are prepared for and have planned for the possibility of taking this case to the commission.
Nicholas Campanella, Analyst
That's very helpful. You mentioned managing affordability in your opening comments, and it's exciting to see the growth in your rate base continue to rise, especially with the addition of new CapEx opportunities. How are you planning to balance this as CapEx continues to increase? With the recent RFP awards and build-own transfers, will these be directly added to the CapEx plan, or is there any strategy in place to offset some of these costs to maintain affordability? How should we approach this?
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
So I'll start on this, and Maria may add in. So as it relates to the RFP, generally speaking, those are incremental to our plan. But of course, a lot of these resources that are coming online also do drive benefits. For example, the Clearwater assets that came online were a reduction to the customer bill for the energy that they were replacing. And that's key to as we work through these RFP processes when we're selecting the project, we are evaluating them based on cost and risk—risk being, of course, risk to be able to execute and deliver. And then also, as a reminder, on affordability, a lot of these projects have the ITCs or PTCs with them that are turning back to the customers, which help drive affordability as well. So affordability is key as we're working towards the clean energy plan and working towards our policies for 2030 and beyond, but we never stop thinking about affordability and ensuring that we're aligning that with the customers as well.
Nicholas Campanella, Analyst
And then my last one is just on the RFP that it sounds like you'll be filing a new one in '25. Just in terms of the process and when you eventually get to the awards, what's the timeline for capital around that? Is it late '20— is it end of decade or is it early 2030s or could any of this kind of make it into the '27, '28 window? Just trying to understand that.
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
So our current—so we talk to the potential new RFP. So the new RFP that we're talking about has the potential to be filed at some time in the beginning of next year, either done concurrently with an IRP or in a linear fashion. We have an expectation that those assets would be requested to come on service by 2028. So 2028 could see that could go to '29. Considering our needs on the system, both from a renewable energy as well as capacity, we would expect whatever the next RFP is to have assets delivered in that '28 or so period.
Nicholas Campanella, Analyst
That's really helpful. Appreciate the time today, and have a great Friday.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Thank you.
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
Thanks, Nick.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin from Jefferies.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst
Hi, good morning.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Hi, Julian.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst
Hi, it’s Brian on from Julien. Just the upcoming RFP, how much capacity is actually remaining after you complete the 2023 RFP?
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
Yes. So I'll pull that up as we're talking here. But just as a reminder, when we kicked off the 2023 RFP, the needs of that IRP at a midpoint were 3,200 megawatts. So we will update the IRP, which has the expectation of potential growth, which will redefine that item. So if you take that we had 3,200 megawatts of need, the nameplate of both Group A and Group B is a total of 1,700 megawatts. Again, just as an understanding, we will be acting and we're in discussions with Group A and then we will evaluate the needs for those Group B items. But so you have 3,200 megawatts is what our need was before this RFP. We have 1,700 megawatts of nameplate gear, and then we will update that with the IRP in the first quarter of next year.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst
Okay. Great. And any milestones we should look for the Northern Lands connector? Are you still at 20%, and also remind me of the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs CapEx profile in five years? Is it all within the five years or does that project extend past 2028?
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
So I'll start with on the North Plains connector, we continue to proceed with our 20% stake. There will be at this point in time specific dates of milestone. We will be adding partners, and we will make disclosures when our commitments continue to expand. Right now, we have a memorandum of understanding that is not binding. But there will be updates that proceed as new partners and that project proceeds. As it relates to the Confederated Tribes of Warm Springs, this is a reminder that we have placed in the plan that you currently see the first year of that project is in 2028. We would expect that to be a multiyear project going out beyond our current forecast, and you would expect as a normal transmission project that you'll get a few years out of that. Just as a reminder, tying this back to the grant, that is the project where the competing tribes are participating in one of the grants with the federal government.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst
Okay. And then just lastly, you mentioned the tax credits as a means to offset some of the equity financing. Could you just talk more specifically on the strategy with Constable and Seaside? I think as part of the rate case, the refund to customers over five or 10 or 20 years is being evaluated. Just wanted to get your thoughts.
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
Sure. Specific to Constable and Seaside, which are eligible for ITC, if you value the two of them combined, you'd get somewhere around approximately $150 million over time. So our policy is to refund them to customers over a period that we align with the regulator, right? And as you mentioned, the refund period for these are not set, it will be somewhere between five and 15 years. But on the financing side to that, we also have had agreement with the OPUC as it relates to being able to monetize these tax credits on the front end as long as we do it, I should say, within a discount of 10%. So we've generally taken the approach that when these tax credits are earned, we will monetize these tax credits, thereby reducing our equity needs, and that equity need reduction will be tied to how long that amortization period is.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst
Okay, great. Thank you very much.
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
I was going to say just this year, we have monetized $31 million in credits this year, and we do have certain agreements for future monetization as well.
Unidentified Analyst, Analyst
Understood. Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Lonegan from Evercore ISI.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Good morning.
Michael Lonegan, Analyst
Hi, thanks for the questions. So on the RFP, you previously paid out 25% ownership that you assumed in your illustrative rate base growth rate base growth example. So the final shortlist here could be toward 50% ownership, it looks like. Just wondering how you're thinking about where this positions you to land in the range of your 5% to 7% EPS growth forecast? Obviously, the additional CapEx could come with incremental equity that you've spoken to.
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
I think currently this RFP, obviously, you measure how we do in either Group A or Group B. But no matter how you look at it, all of this continues to align us within the earnings band as we had mentioned. So the success of these RFPs, assuming we continue to execute, would be consistent with our earnings expectations within the growth bit.
Michael Lonegan, Analyst
Got it. Thank you. And then secondly for me, on the pending rate case, you can see that some items, you revised yours with some like you with further requests for the investment recovery mechanism and the related storage policy. Just wondering if you see an opportunity to ask for these in the next rate case. I think you've alluded to annual filings going forward.
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
Yes. I think each case, as you know, stands by itself. And what we've been trying to do in these cases is be responsive to the stakeholders, obviously managing affordability but also managing the timing of cases in that. So yes, I believe we'll continue to have dialogue over items like an IRM item as it relates to trackers for storage solely to continue to align to their goal. So yes, for this case, we've pulled some of them out. But I think we'll work through potentially. There have been discussions of a multiyear framework going forward, but I would think that these types of proposals will come forward in the future. And so I think there's possibility for them. I think tools like this will be needed to consistently meet the clean energy goals and meet the expectations of the timing of rate cases and other matters.
Michael Lonegan, Analyst
Great. Thanks for the time.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Travis Miller from Morningstar Inc.
Travis Miller, Analyst
Good morning. Thank you.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Good morning, Travis.
Travis Miller, Analyst
Hi, sticking on that rate case, and you answered a lot of questions around the settlement and what's going on there. But what do you see high level as the difference between perhaps this rate case and the settlement negotiations and the past several where you've been able to settle? Are there certain issues or certain things that have come up that are making it less possible, if that's the right way to put it, to settle?
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Sure. That's a really good question. And I'd say that the biggest distinction in the discussions and overall dialogue in this rate case is that some parties have focused a lot on the press and sort of the broader inflationary environment.
Travis Miller, Analyst
Okay. Okay. So more public animosity, again, is it very worth than past settlements—is that the way to...
Maria Pope, President and CEO
I think that's the—those are the tools that they've decided that are helpful to where they want to go and what they want to accomplish.
Travis Miller, Analyst
Okay, perfect. And then one different subject. When these industrial customers are coming to you, the new ones and asking for—to get on the system, what are they saying as the reason for choosing your system, right, apart from the fact that there are a lot of semiconductors, etc., in that area? Is it access to the grid is really easy, the low cost of power? What are some of the things they are telling you they like about...
Maria Pope, President and CEO
So for the significant manufacturers and particularly those for whom power quality and power factors are very important. That absolutely is a consideration. I would also say that there's an ecosystem of talent, whether it starts from our community colleges to our universities and to the overall environment that has been built up over several decades of really significant talent in this region. There's no question that the subsea communications cables from the Pacific, which terminate in Oregon, just as the Atlantic cables terminate in Virginia, have an impact on data centers as well as other companies. And I think there's also much of our customer base is really focused on clean energy, and we have been a leader when it comes to delivering clean energy and options for those customers, particularly those that want to go faster and further towards 100% clean energy.
Travis Miller, Analyst
Sure. Okay, that's great, Thanks so much.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell from Mizuho.
Anthony Crowdell, Analyst
Hey, good morning, team. Just a couple of quick questions. I appreciate all the detail. I know we've talked a lot about the tax credits. When the company gives forward year guidance, will the company start giving us how much they're assuming in ITCs for each year?
Maria Pope, President and CEO
That's a good question. It will dovetail with the renewable projects that we're bringing online or the storage projects that we're bringing online. And so as we give you more color with regards to those projects, we'd be happy to give you the associated tax savings or investment tax savings that will come with each of those projects. In general rule of thumb, it's 30% or north of the capital amount of the project. It's a very significant ability to reduce customer prices with these tax credits.
Anthony Crowdell, Analyst
Great. And then I think you spoke about earlier I hope I've the numbers right, load growth for this year, I believe it's like 2% to 2.5%, but long-term, it's 2%, and you're going to revisit that on the—when you file the 2025 IRP. So does that—just understanding the cadence, right, if that's correct, do we potentially get an update on long-term load growth on the fourth quarter call?
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Yes. I don't know if we will have all of the analysis complete by that time. We have been doing updates on our load growth as we have seen significant changes. I probably think you'll see it closer to March for the IRP update. But suffice it to say, we have really good, diverse solid load growth. And that's important as we look at our cost structure overall and our ability to deliver cost-effectively for customers.
Anthony Crowdell, Analyst
Great. And I guess just my last question. I believe politically Washington State and Oregon are somewhat aligned. It appears that Washington State is getting less green. I think on this year's ballot in Washington State, there's some—like I don’t know if I would characterize them as anti-green bills, but there’s a bill where they're going to ban any restriction on gas going to new buildings, may revoke some RPS standards. I'm just curious if Oregon is seeing any of that? Are you seeing the state get less green?
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Sure. I think, first of all, we have different policies when it comes to clean energy and carbon reductions. And first and foremost, for us as a customer, we're really guided—as a utility, we are really guided by our customers and their interest. 25% of our customers voluntarily pay a little bit more on their bill for 100% clean energy. And many of our largest high-tech customers as well as municipal customers, hospitals, and others participate in our green future programs, having 100% clean energy for them as well. So one of the key reasons for this is that we have been able to bring on new clean resources very economically. As Joe was mentioning, the Clearwater Wind Project actually has reduced customer prices this year to date and is a significant part of how we build out our portfolio, as have additional hydro contracts, and we look forward to the battery stores we're bringing them online.
Anthony Crowdell, Analyst
So just to recap, you're not seeing any ballot initiatives on changing any of the state's policies on renewables or green?
Maria Pope, President and CEO
There could be discussions out there that we're not aware of, but we don't see any ballot initiatives.
Anthony Crowdell, Analyst
Great, thanks so much for taking my questions, and congrats on a good quarter.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Thank you.
Joe Trpik, Senior Vice President Finance and CFO
Thank you.
Operator, Operator
Thank you. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference back over to Maria Pope for closing remarks.
Maria Pope, President and CEO
Thank you all for joining us this morning. We appreciate your interest in Portland General Electric, and we look forward to connecting with you soon. In particular, we'll probably see many of you at the upcoming EEI Financial Conference next month. Thank you, and have a great day.
Operator, Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.