Earnings Call Transcript - PRGO Q4 2022

Bradley Joseph, Head of Investor Relations and Communications

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening. On behalf of Perrigo's executive leadership team, I'd like to welcome you to Perrigo's 2023 Virtual Investor Day. For those who don't know me, my name is Brad Joseph, Head of Investor Relations and Communications at Perrigo. Today, you're going to hear about Perrigo's transformation journey over the last few years and how the company is extremely well positioned to drive outsized growth through 2025 and solid long-term growth beyond by continuing to focus on operational execution, integrating acquired businesses and achieving synergies and by delivering on the tremendous innovation opportunities we see ahead. This next phase of our strategy is called optimize and accelerate, which you'll hear much more about in just a moment. But before we do that, I would like to remind everyone that during this presentation, participants will make certain forward-looking statements. Please refer to the important information for shareholders and investors and safe harbor language regarding these statements in our press releases issued last night and earlier this morning, and of course, our most recent SEC filings. We'll also be referencing financial measures that are non-GAAP in nature and will provide a reconciliation of our GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures on the Perrigo Investor Relations website. A few quick items before we start. First, unless dated, all financial results discussed and presented are on a continuing operations basis. They do not include any contributions from the divested Rx business, which was accounted for as discontinued operations prior to its sale. Unless stated, all financial results discussed and presented for those years prior to 2021 represents CSCA, CSCI and corporate segments only. Second, as a reminder, organic net sales growth excludes the effect of acquisitions and divestitures and also the impact of currency. We also discussed net sales growth, excluding divestitures, which includes both acquisitions and internal growth. Now on to the agenda. Kicking us off will be Murray Kessler, President and CEO, who will walk you through our transformation journey, along with lessons learned and strategic questions from our journey. After which, we'll take a 5-minute break. Then you will hear from Svend Andersen, President of CSCI; Jim Dillard, President of CSCA; Alison Ives, Chief Scientific Officer; Ron Janish, Head of Global Supply Chain; Grainne Quinn, Chief Medical Officer; and Eduardo Bezerra, CFO, and they will all and he will take us through answers to inform Perrigo's strategic direction. Eduardo will also cover how we will translate our strategic direction into shareholder value, after which Murray will come back with closing remarks and bring the presentation portion of the day to a close. After the presentation, we'll take a quick 10-minute break. That break will be followed by Q&A session with the entire team. You have the ability throughout the presentation to submit a question in the Ask a Question section on the webcast. We'll do our best to address all questions asked. Before I turn it over to Murray, just 2 more quick items. First, we're going to make a survey available throughout the event and post the event. We strongly encourage you to fill this out and provide us with your feedback. Second, all the presentations that you hear today, including the full replay of today's event, will be made available on the Perrigo Investor Relations website within the next 24 hours. And with that, it's my pleasure to introduce Murray Kessler, CEO and President of Perrigo.

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

Thank you, Brad. I get the pleasure today of walking you through the journey that my team and I have been on for the last 4 years. And if you're a new investor, it's been an amazing journey as we have transformed ourselves from a consumer health care company that had both consumer health care products, but it also had Rx prescription products. We built the strategy that we introduced because we believed there was a major opportunity to change the trajectory of the business if we focused on self-care. If you were here for the original presentation, which was around May 2019, you saw that the team and I walked into a pretty tough situation. It was a long-term declining trend. You had about 4 years of declining performance, a kind of flat consumer top-line business and a declining Rx business and an overall declining operating income trajectory; the share price was declining and the business was continuing to erode. So we asked, how do we change this? We went back to this idea of a transformation based on the concept that the company had a 130-year rich history and was almost the very first in the world to launch private-label over-the-counter products that didn't need a prescription. That self-care vision was on trend and nobody was really trying to own that opportunity, and it could be a place where Perrigo could really stand out and differentiate itself versus other companies in the space. With that, it would open up numerous opportunities. If you follow me in my career, I always start with when I come into a company, creating a vision statement. I've never walked away from that vision because I believe you have to work day after day and commit in everything you do to make that vision a reality. For Perrigo, that vision was and is today to make lives better by bringing quality affordable self-care products that consumers trust everywhere they're sold. Everyone in the Perrigo organization needs to be able to see themselves in that vision and ask, what am I doing to make lives better for the people who buy Perrigo products around the world. The beauty of that definition is it went from traditional, everything must go through the FDA, to opening up many avenues for growth for the company and new categories as long as they helped consumers not just treat illness but prevent illness and promote wellness. When you do that, you can see how that has opened up explosive growth for Perrigo over the last few years. Job one in that strategy, introduced in May 2019, was revenue first. We needed to get the top line growing again. That was the key job. We had done a lot of work with advisers on the drivers of value creation. The first thing they said was you need to get revenue growing again. Second, you needed to stabilize, at least in the beginning, your operating income even though you were going to be investing. And third, you needed to reduce uncertainty. We had tremendous uncertainty on the business that was steering some investors away. The second phase, towards the end of the first three years, was to get the bottom line growing. Our goal was to deliver on a long-term basis 3% on the top line, 5% operating income growth and 7% EPS. You'll hear me refer to 3/5/7. So 3%, 5%, 7% was the goal: year 1 and 2, get the 3%, reduce uncertainty in the organization, then start delivering 5% and 7% in later years. To make that happen, it required a massive reconfiguration of the company. Over the last three years, we've completed many transactions. We sold our generic Rx business, almost an $800 million revenue business. We sold our Latin American operations, Rosemont Rx business, Animal Health and we closed down our India R&D. Those were nonstrategic businesses that were a drag on the company. On the buy side, we purchased Nestle's Gateway infant formula facility, HRA Pharma, Ranir Oral Care, Dr. Fresh Oral Care, Steripod Oral Care, the Prevacid brand and a number of Eastern European skin care products, and we invested in Kazmira, which develops clean CBD products. Imagine the work to complete 13 or 14 transactions in a few years. I believe M&A capability and integration capability is now a core competency of Perrigo. Second, we needed to get our pipeline and organic growth growing. We built a $0.5 billion pipeline in new products. We launched over $600 million in new products during the three years of the strategic plan. We set a goal of $100 million in cost savings and have delivered $80 million, with financial projects to complete the $100 million. We've launched new e-commerce frameworks and built e-commerce platforms. We're part of the solution to the recent infant formula crisis. We brought in talent and rationalized SKUs. This reconfiguration was critical to building a great company. Third element was reducing uncertainty. Back in May, we had billions of dollars of tax liability and litigation concerns that have been dramatically reduced. We strengthened cybersecurity, divested volatile businesses, and invested in DEI and ESG. Perrigo today is very different than when we started. If you look back to that May presentation, you'll see we did everything we told you we were going to do. As a result, we reversed the trend on the top line. We went from a declining business to a business that has grown at a 7% compound annual growth rate on the top over the last few years. We stabilized operating income and held the bottom line even as we invested in IT, capacity, people and brands. One of the most popular slides 3.5 years ago was our diagnosis of why the business had slowed. The revenue growth components in our winning years — acquisitions, Rx-to-OTC switches, new products and the base core business including pricing — all added to around a 9% compound annual growth rate or $1 billion of revenue growth. Then acquisitions stopped, OTC switches decreased, new products were a fraction of prior years and the base business erosion worsened. We went from plus 9% to essentially flat. In the third column, what's happened since we began transformation activities: we reignited M&A and delivered $660 million of new revenues through acquisitions for the '18 to '22 period. Rx-to-OTC switches are actually down relative to prior highs but were upside to the initial plan. New products pipeline was reignited with $430 million and our base business declines were stabilized. We went from negative trend back to a 7% compound annual growth rate. When we decided to sell the Rx business — that was 25% of sales — it was significant to replace. In only 1.5 years since we sold it, our top line is larger than when we had Rx. That was replaced through bolt-on acquisitions and strong organic growth. We diversified our portfolio and entered into self-care categories with more freedom to reach market faster. Not everything had to go through the FDA. We added oral care now 9% of total business worldwide, doubled our skin care to 14%, added women's health, now 3% of the business with major growth potential. We added brands like Compeed and Physiomer and we are the #1 store brand supplier of OTC products in the U.S. We also lead in floss picks, kids toothbrushes and infant formulas. This is a diversified company with global brands and opportunities. We diversified across store brand and national brand. In 2018, branded was 40% of sales; now it's 50% globally. We diversified across geographies and with HRA and women's health we're in more countries than ever before. Perrigo is a unique company: diversified, global, branded and store brand. Today, Perrigo is a pure-play consumer self-care company, one of the leading ones globally, differentiated and on trend. Our products are accessible, affordable, reliable, sustainable and profitable. We help reduce health care costs and provide access, making lives better daily. Another thing I learned is the company's complexity quotient — we manage distribution in 80 countries through 21 facilities, over 200 brands, 2,200 formulations, 13,300 SKUs, 48 billion solid doses a year, 17 billion liquid doses, 1 billion infant formula feedings and 7 billion oral care units per year. Perrigo is large and nimble. Let's look at a video showing the new Perrigo. While the strategic objectives set out in 2019 were clearly achieved, our financial objectives of 5% and 7% were delayed about a year due to numerous external factors: the Ukraine war, currency translation, the COVID-19 pandemic which reduced about 20% of our business for 1.5 years, global supply chain disruption, unprecedented input inflation and labor shortages. These factors negatively impacted gross margins by about 500 basis points versus our 2019 plan and increased costs by over $400 million. To put that in perspective, a normal year for Perrigo is about $30 million of inflation; these were staggering numbers. One by one, our team addressed these challenges. I'm proud to say we are back on track. As shown in yesterday's earnings release, we delivered fourth-quarter 10% top-line growth on a constant-currency basis and 13% net sales growth on a constant-currency basis. Adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter was +25% constant currency, and full-year adjusted diluted EPS was up 11% adjusted for currency or 25% in U.S. dollars and 33% currency neutral. For the full year, we returned to growth with double-digit EPS growth on an adjusted, currency-neutral basis. The quality of that growth matters: we did not simply cut short-term costs or shift volume. This is solid, profitable growth. Quality demand starts with the consumer. Demand was strong in the second half and especially in the fourth quarter. The green bars on a slide represent Perrigo categories broken into CSCA and CSCI and those are growth rates, not market shares. Pain grew 19% in the fourth quarter and was a full share point gain. Skin care grew 39.6% in the fourth quarter. Most categories we compete in are growing, and we're gaining share. So quality demand is checked. The Street worried about gross margins and rightfully so. It's an area where we were delayed versus the 2019 presentation because we didn't predict COVID-19, supply chain disruption, input inflation or labor shortages. In Q2 2022 I promised we could recapture 400 to 500 basis points in gross margin by the end of Q4. We delivered and exited the year with a 500 basis point gain for the year. Q1 2022 gross margin was 33.4% and we exited at 38.4%. CSCA improved from 25% to 31.6% over the year. Our performance versus consumer peers stacked up well; we were in the top quartile on net sales growth and organic net sales. Adjusted operating income, adjusted EPS and adjusted gross margins put us near the top of the peer group. We also maintain a strong dividend. Three years later, the company is growing and uncertainty has been reduced. We were a year delayed, but we've got financials growing and expect acceleration in 2023. CFO Eduardo will walk through guidance, but off the top, our EPS guidance is $2.50 to $2.70 with a midpoint of $2.60, about 26% growth, including a $32 million one-time write-off to change from distributors to our own direct sales force in Europe. Excluding that, underlying growth is 33% for next year. We are back to growing and the basis is the new strategic plan. We are in a new phase: Phase 1 was transformation to get to 3/5/7. We exceeded the top-line goal and reduced uncertainty. We can accelerate growth through integrating recent acquisitions and a global supply chain reinvention. We will slow down on M&A after 13 or 14 deals in the last three years, take a breath and use generated cash to reduce leverage with a goal of 3x or below by 2025. So self-care, integrated acquisitions, pay down debt and deliver outsized growth. Lessons learned: five key areas. One, the self-care strategy is correct and must be maintained. Two, bolt-on M&A has been successful to provide access to growing segments while reigniting organic growth. Three, we have tools to recover and expand margins. Four, ESG has become embedded in our culture and can be a competitive advantage. Five, now is the time to shift from M&A to executional excellence and strengthen the balance sheet. For each lesson I will outline the strategic question investors ask and then my team will answer those questions in the next section. Lesson one: self-care is large, over $400 billion globally. From 2017 to 2022 the category grew at about 2.8% accelerating to nearly 5% in Europe and about 4% in North America and globally close to 6% in certain subsegments. Populations are aging and spend more on health and self-care. In these growing segments Perrigo has meaningful presence. We are an established leader in OTC: #3 on revenues measured by IRI and in the top 10 in OTC in the EU. The left-hand numbers understate Perrigo because our U.S. business is primarily private-label and that measure doesn't reflect volume. When you consider dosage units, in the U.S. our products are as big as the #2 and #3 competitors combined. Self-care as a dedicated industry is forming with new focused companies like the combined consumer divisions of GSK and Pfizer, J&J spinning off its consumer business and others creating a $150 billion plus segment. The question: can Perrigo compete with new pure-play self-care companies? My preview answer is yes, and my team will show details. Lesson two: our bolt-on M&A provided access to new segments while we reignited organic growth. We achieved 7% compound annual growth rate from 2018 to 2022 including M&A, 11% growth in branded portfolio, 4% growth in store brands. We added $660 million in net sales from bolt-on M&A and built an innovation pipeline. These bolt-ons feed organic growth because they are margin accretive and growing double digits. We launched $610 million in new and refreshed products, kept a $0.5 billion pipeline, and maintained R&D investment. E-commerce grew from less than $100 million in 2018 to over $0.5 billion and now accounts for over 12% of sales. It is a major competency and advantage for Perrigo. Our strategic pillars were core OTC, oral care, nutrition (infant formula), nicotine replacement therapy, science-based naturals. Some areas need refinement and we will do that. Pricing stabilized; customers partnered with us on inflationary pressures. Our bolt-on M&A delivered growth and access while we reignited organic growth. The strategic question: can Perrigo continue to reliably grow revenue at 3%+ long term without aggressive M&A? We believe yes. Lesson three: we have tools to recover and expand margins. We identified $100 million of SG&A savings and have realized $80 million. SG&A as a percent of sales declined from 21% to 19%. Supply chain external factors hurt gross margins, but we recaptured much of that in 2022, moving from a low of around 33% back to 38.4% by year-end. Acquisitions such as HRA and Gateway are higher margin and accretive. We are launching a supply chain reinvention program with potential $200 million to $300 million in savings by end of 2028 with $350 million to $570 million cash investment, much of which will be invested earlier. Improvements include addressing unmet demand — for example we left $40 million to $50 million of infant formula sales on the table for lack of capacity — and other categories like cough/cold where demand surged and we are behind bottling capacity. We estimate we left about $200 million on the table over the last couple years due to capacity constraints. The strategic question: can we get back to 40% gross margin or better and sustain it? We believe yes with the supply chain reinvention. Lesson four: ESG is embedded in our DNA. We've reported sustainability for years and set goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, waste, energy and water. We committed to Net Zero by 2040 and 100% renewable electricity. Packaging goals include making packaging recyclable and using recycled content. We use 100% RSPO-certified palm oil, achieved reductions in CO2 and packaging waste since 2015, and four major sites achieved zero landfill status since 2020. DEI progressed — we formalized a DEI function, launched a 3-year strategy, published an EEI report, and now have a strategic plan through 2026 focused on inclusion. Diversity statistics: 48% female workforce, 51% of recent hires are female across more than 30 countries, 23% people of color representation, 33% of hires are people of color, Board diversity 36% women or people of color and operating committee diversity improved from 9% to 40%. Our people rally in crises — Perrigo factory workers never missed a shift through two years of COVID and consistently deliver. Governance has also improved with annual elections, separate chairman and CEO positions, no shareholder rights plan, strong pay-for-performance policies and majority voting for directors. The strategic question: how do we leverage ESG for competitive advantage? We will continue to evolve and embed it. Lesson five: now is the time to shift from M&A to executional excellence and strengthen the balance sheet. We must integrate HRA and Gateway effectively, deliver synergies and reduce leverage. We refinanced early and now have about $150 million of interest expense in our P&L and net leverage ratio 5.5x. We aim to reduce to 3x by 2025. We remain committed to a consistent and growing dividend and recently raised it 5%, the 20th consecutive year of dividend increases. Capital allocation priorities are debt reduction, keep dividend growing and reinvest in the business. Investors ask: will you throw off enough cash to pay the $700 million of bonds coming due in 2024? Our answer is yes; we'll show how in a moment. In summary, we've transformed the company and learned lessons. Strategic questions remain: can we compete with new self-care companies, grow 3% organically, back off on M&A, continue to grow margins, leverage ESG, and reduce leverage? My team will address these questions next. Thank you.

Svend Andersen, President, Consumer Self-Care International (CSCI)

Thank you, Murray. My name is Svend Andersen. Over the next section of the presentation, I and several other members of Murray's executive team will answer the key strategic questions that were identified, demonstrating the ways in which Perrigo intends to compete and win in our refined strategic growth pillars through innovation, global branding and through omnichannel strategies, secure margin expansion and fortify our balance sheet. We will also show you how we intend to do all of this in a world of ESG. Ultimately, we want to show you how we believe we can profitably grow in harmony with our purpose to make life better and consistent with our value proposition to consumers and customers, the planet and its people. Let's start with why we believe Perrigo can successfully compete in the new emerging self-care category. First off, these are growing categories globally. These bullish growth projections for the extended self-care market project a global growth rate of approximately 6%. The projections for regions in which Perrigo has higher penetration are 4% to 6%, underlying strong business fundamentals for self-care, which has only been amplified by the formation of a new dedicated industry. Coming back to the strategic question, can Perrigo compete effectively with other pure players? First and foremost, Perrigo rarely competes head-to-head with other companies on an international basis. In the U.S., we primarily compete indirectly via our OTC store-brand unique and compelling value-driven go-to-market model. On the oral care side, we intend to compete in these segments with store brands as well. Our recently expanded infant nutrition business is primarily a store-brand alternative with the same consumer and customer dynamics based on high quality and affordable products. Our recently acquired global brands from HRA, primarily within women's health and wound and scar care, do have truly global reach, but they are niche and unique. On the international side, we compete with exceptionally strong trusted local brands, and we compete on a regional basis across profitable smaller niche segments in which we are the market leader. Several segments we operate in are outside the traditional OTC registered pharmaceutical environment, allowing faster innovation cycles and easier access to e-commerce. It is worth mentioning we have decided not to compete in Russia as a result of the ongoing war. We remain convinced that was the right decision. We believe we are ahead when it comes to focused execution of business strategies. We have been a pure-play company for over a year and are now fully focused on acceleration and optimization. We are not distracted by further portfolio configuration and have no Rx interdependency overhang. Newly independent and focused consumer health companies should drive penetration. Natural brand competition will lead to category growth through penetration and innovation, which will benefit both our store brands in the U.S. and U.K. as fast followers. Where Perrigo operates as the national brand globally or via our pan-European branded businesses, we drive penetration through great communication and innovation. Overall, increased OTC penetration globally will support this. Given an acquisitive last couple of years, we do not feel we need to participate further in consolidation of the industry now, though greater M&A opportunities will surface as portfolios are optimized and 2025 could be a good year for us to reengage. The OTC industry is about 2.5 times larger than the traditional defined $400 billion business and is expected to attract new investor interest to Perrigo. We believe the new industry formation and expected category growth will benefit the entire consumer self-care industry and Perrigo. Regarding capabilities within the growing category, we strongly believe Perrigo has the capabilities to compete effectively. On the store-brand side, particularly in the U.S., manufacturing is a core strategic capability across many categories and dispensing forms. It allows a broad portfolio, has excellent OTC switch capabilities and is a fast follower on innovation, which is critical. We have achieved an impressive market share of 49% which represents critical infrastructure for U.S. consumers and customers with a compelling value proposition for accessibility and affordability. On the international side, we have a considerable brand portfolio of more than 100 strong brands, twice the average of our competitors. We benefited from strong equity in local and regional brands that continue to grow, and with HRA we have truly global brand-building capabilities. The McKinsey Pulse consumer research as of July 2022 with a 4,000-respondent sample verifies consumers are taking actions to trade down with respect to pack size, frequency and price parameters. We are delighted with the mix of shareholders we now have with a majority of generalists and consumer-focused shareholders and pharma analysts reflecting the OTC opportunity. Current mega-trends see consumers increasingly engaged with health, wellness and prevention, and an aging population with different perceptions of aging. Overall, we firmly believe Perrigo can compete effectively with the new pure-play companies.

James Dillard, President, Consumer Self-Care Americas (CSCA)

Thank you, Svend. I'm going to take the group through whether Perrigo can continue to reliably grow organic revenue at 3-plus percent over the long term. 3.5 years ago, when I was Chief Scientific Officer at Perrigo, we presented five original strategic pillars: OTC, Oral Care, Nutrition (mainly Infant Formula), Science-based Naturals and NRT. Over the next three-year strategic plan we are evolving from five to six categories. We are maintaining Oral Care, Nutrition, Science-based Naturals and adding Women's Health and Skin Care as distinct pillars. We'll manage NRT within the businesses for now while we continue to pursue disruptive technologies. Core OTC is our largest global category, $2.5 billion in 2022 and about 56% of our sales. The market outlook looks good with a projected 4% annual growth rate, and each percentage point is meaningful — roughly $260 million in revenue per point. We must continue to innovate and target higher than 3% in this category. Global population aging, reduced doctor visits post-COVID and Rx-to-OTC switch opportunities such as NASONEX and Voltaren support growth. NRT remains a healthy global market, but it requires disruptive technologies and a rigorous regulatory process; approvals are expected in 2024 and 2025 for certain projects and will be managed within businesses until then. Oral Care has been strengthened by Ranir, Dr. Fresh and Steripod acquisitions. We have a balanced branded and store-brand mix and strong global Plackers capability. Oral self-care supports overall health and aesthetics; the biggest threat in 2022 was supply chain, which is now resolved. Each share point in oral care is about $35 million in revenue. Nutrition, primarily infant formula, remains a strategic pillar. 2022 was notable with recalls and disruptions; we were helpful in supplying store brands during the crisis. We acquired the Gateway facility to increase capacity to supply customers and compete in organic and natural categories that are growing faster than existing categories. Turning to science-based naturals, this includes vitamins, minerals, herbals and other natural health products, a large OTC category valued at more than $50 billion and growing around 4% to 6% depending on subsegment. Consumers are seeking natural solutions for treatment and holistic wellness. Perrigo has a broad range of supplements and science-based natural products across many categories with strong branded presence in Europe. One share point gain in this area represents about $30 million of additional sales. With HRA, we now have access to leading brands and talent in women's health, providing a starting base of $150 million in branded franchise. Women's health and reproductive health are sizable and fast-growing markets in OTC self-care. We see opportunities to support women across life stages with accessible solutions, potentially including fintech solutions. We have a store-brand equivalent of Plan B shipping on Amazon and leading emergency contraception brands ellaOne and NorLevo commanding about two-thirds of the European market. Hana was previously prescription-only contraception successfully switched to OTC in the U.K. We see opportunity to replicate that success in the U.S. with Opill, addressing a roughly $3.7 billion market. We submitted our Opill application in 2022 and are in active dialogue with the FDA, expecting approval in 2023. Opill could materially reduce unintended pregnancies and associated costs for women. The HRA acquisition also strengthens our skin care position. Skin Care is now our second largest and fastest-growing category with the market projected to $181 billion by 2025 with a 6% CAGR. Perrigo's skin care segment is 13% of total sales despite having only 8 months of HRA in 2022. We have iconic brands and a strong dermatological R&D center in Sweden. Each share point gain in skin care represents about $80 million in revenue for Perrigo. Summarizing the six strategic growth pillars — Core OTC (56% of portfolio), Skin Care (13%), Nutrition (12%), Oral Care, Science-based Naturals and Women's Health — we believe this set provides organic growth exceeding our long-term 3% target. These areas are supported by innovation, commercial excellence and omnichannel capabilities.

Alison Ives, Chief Scientific Officer

Thanks, Svend, and hello all. We'll turn now to three enablers foundational to continued acceleration of organic growth. First, our operating model and formation of global teams for strategic pillars. Second, innovation as the lifeblood of any consumer business. Third, our omnichannel strategy with increasing focus on digital marketing, communication and e-commerce. We've formed three global structures with tailored organizational design to drive focus in critical growth areas and integrated talent from HRA. Women's Health has dedicated representatives across the value chain with a diverse remit from Rx-to-OTC switch strategies to transformational innovation in FemTech. Skin Care has strong marketing focus partnering with multifunctional category innovation teams to bring global brand plans to life. Oral Care is independent with its own manufacturing and innovation teams. This new global approach can synergize our organization. Compeed is an example of an iconic brand with double-digit growth and scope to accelerate via innovation and a global team. Regarding our new product pipeline, we created over $600 million in revenue from new product launches in the last three years — around 40% of overall growth. We had stable R&D investment and increased return on investment year-over-year by reigniting insight-led development, increasing partnerships and stretching product assets and technologies further. Our focus now is on pipeline efficiency, balancing scale, risk and return. We reduced complexity enabling pivot of resources to higher-value projects. In six months we've increased average project value by over 20% and have a framework to focus on innovating within our strategic growth pillars. Our pipeline is primed for accelerated growth with a forecast greater than a 50% increase in new product revenue for 2023. We see a healthy balance across innovation horizons, regulatory classifications, brand and store brand and across strategic pillars. Rx-to-OTC switch is increasing and with HRA we expanded switch capabilities. Branded switches will be a key growth driver and we will continue to fast-follow U.S. national brand switches with store brand alternatives where feasible. We're driving ingredient and technology platforms as priority pillars of development for scale. Our Kazmira partnership on high-quality CBD progressed to cosmetics cGMP compliance with first launch expected in 2024; regulatory progress in U.S. and Europe is welcome and we'll engage to create a path for ingested cannabinoids. We've added outstanding R&D and regulatory talent to further enable growth. I'll hand back to Jim to summarize the e-commerce and digital enabler.

James Dillard, President, Consumer Self-Care Americas (CSCA)

Thank you, Alison. I'll close this section on growth drivers by discussing e-commerce and digital. Starting investment in e-commerce and digital prior to the pandemic was strategic. In 2019 we invested to develop the right platforms to work with customers, evolved technology and built a strategic plan with Amazon. We've continued growth initiatives with Amazon and other retailers; Amazon-related activities have continued to grow about 30% since 2019. Our Amazon partnership provided a test-and-learn platform. In January we launched Option 2, an emergency contraceptive under Amazon's Basic Care brand, intended as a test-and-learn capability. We've invested in channel diversification across retailer.com sites, hired digital talent and built in-house content design and DTC platforms to support 2023 and 2024 initiatives. The journey started in 2019 at a nascent level. We've advanced to A+ digital content development and performance marketing; we have Level 3 intermediate marketing capabilities with PIM and DAM systems to deploy content across platforms, website optimization and a pathway to reach advanced levels by 2025. In summary, with the optimized growth framework we are confident we can deliver 3%+ organic growth without additional M&A. Strategic pillars OTC, Oral Care, Nutrition, Science-based Naturals, Women's Health and Skin Care are enabled by focused global marketing units, innovation and e-commerce. We are confident organic growth will carry us to our 3% target.

Ron Janish, Head of Global Supply Chain

Thanks, Jim. We've addressed whether we can compete in self-care and grow the top line. Now we will answer whether Perrigo can achieve and sustain a 40%+ gross margin. We have several tools to rebuild gross margins. First, a complete end-to-end reinvention of our global supply chain. We have work streams underway in four key areas that started delivering benefits already in the fourth quarter. Second, acquisitions HRA and the Gateway infant formula facility, coupled with rights to the U.S. and Canada Good Start business, are driving margin accretion immediately. Third, carryover pricing from 2022 actions, normalization of COVID-related supply chain cost increases such as inbound ocean freight, and improved manufacturing productivity due to better staffing are contributing to margin expansion. We took a clean-sheet approach to evaluate our end-to-end global supply chain and identified initiatives across four major areas with potential to deliver $200 million to $300 million in operating income improvement over the next five years for an all-in cash investment of $350 million to $570 million. The four main areas are: winning portfolio — standardizing significant portions of our product portfolio to reduce complexity; planning evolution — improving integrated business planning with focus on reducing forecast error; sourcing optimization — diversifying our supply base and reducing external contract manufacturer complexity through insourcing or supplier consolidation; and manufacturing optimization — investments in core assets, automation and implementing the new Perrigo work system across our global network. Our road map allows us to realize a significant portion of $200 million to $300 million in the first three years with $150 million to $200 million annual benefit by end of 2025. Winning portfolio work focuses on optimizing and reducing product complexity. For example, a single store-brand product in the U.S. can be sold in hundreds of configurations considering count sizes, bottle and cap configurations, labels, cartons and case packs. These configurations require changeovers in our plants, which creates downtime and is the largest drag on productivity. The SKU portfolio we manage in U.S. OTC is as large as the next 12 largest U.S. OTC manufacturers combined. By harmonizing configurations and reducing changeovers, every 10 points of productivity we generate unlocks 25% more capacity without additional capital or staffing. We will rationalize flavors and count sizes; consumer feedback shows many attributes are not important to the majority of consumers. In CSCI we have a meaningful portion of our portfolio that contributes very little to profit; about 30% or 1,500 SKUs represent less than 1% of standard margin. This is a significant opportunity to streamline and reduce complexity. Planning evolution manages the flow from customer forecast to demand plan and supply plan. Improving forecasting reduces obsolescence — in CSCA, 50% of annual waste is directly addressable by improving our planning process. Reducing forecast error improves working capital and reduces safety stock — this value is additional cash benefit beyond the $200 million to $300 million operating income improvement. Lastly, the Gateway infant formula facility acquisition adds capacity and fortifies supply chain in infant formula: we now have three infant formula manufacturing facilities in the U.S. and can produce a variety of core and specialty products, packing in cans and tubs for store brand customers and Good Start. In total, we anticipate $50 million operating benefit in 2023 from this acquisition. We've also reorganized our global supply chain organization with new roles and people to ensure delivery against the reinvention commitments. Collectively, supply chain reinvention, HRA and Gateway benefits, pricing carryover and supply chain normalization put us on the path to achieving and sustaining a 40% gross margin target.

Grainne Quinn, Chief Medical Officer (also leads DEI/ESG efforts)

Thank you, Ron. Perrigo's commitment to environmental, social and governance sets us apart and continues to do so. We started our CSR and sustainability program over 10 years ago and it has evolved into a broader ESG program, with measurement and reporting since then. We began through the lens of the triple bottom line: people, planet and financial performance. Over time we've engaged stakeholders and leveraged ESG frameworks and best practices to focus on topics material to stakeholders and meaningful to the business. Today our ESG strategy has four pillars addressing the most critical topics to lead us sustainably into the future as stewards of natural and social capital. This slide details our ESG strategy with key goals and initiatives for each pillar as well as frameworks we align with such as SASB and TCFD. Climate is a growing, existential risk; we committed to Net Zero by 2040, 10 years ahead of the Paris Agreement, and set goals for 100% renewable electricity and to continuously reduce GHG emissions, energy, water and waste. Packaging is important to our retail customers; we set goals to make packaging more recyclable, use recycled content and reduce material through efficient design. Responsible sourcing is complex; we focus on 100% sustainable palm oil, sustainable paper sources and ethical production and are expanding supplier engagement on climate, water and waste. The people pillar covers human capital: DEI, investing in our people, community engagement, human rights, and health and well-being of global colleagues. Our ESG report is publicly available on perrigo.com. On DEI, as we transformed from pharma to self-care and a consumer-packaged goods organization, we formalized our commitment in 2019 by assessing baseline maturity, creating a multiyear strategy and allocating dedicated headcount. We will publish our second DEI report before the end of Q1 2023 and have a 2023–2026 strategy focused on creating a culture of belonging. Belonging means people feel like full members of a larger community where they can thrive; it results from a diverse workforce, equitable systems and inclusive actions. Our goal is a community where colleagues feel welcomed, valued, respected and heard. Research shows when people experience belonging they stay longer and perform better. We are moving from DEI awareness to building inclusive mindsets, talent processes that promote equity and leader accountability. We'll evolve our business inclusion groups, double membership and engage them in 2023 campaigns focused on racial diversity, Pride and building a culture of belonging. We removed barriers for people with disabilities by sponsoring the U.S. Paralympic Equestrian team. We've had strong validation from shareholders, customers and employees that we're on the right track. Perrigo punches above its weight in ESG and leadership in sustainability will remain a differentiator for us. We have more to do and will continue to evolve.

Eduardo Bezerra, Chief Financial Officer

My name is Eduardo Bezerra. I'll share how we will reduce leverage. Over the last four years, Perrigo emphasized dividend growth while executing strategic M&A to transform the company and reinvesting in the business. Between 2023 and 2025 we'll shift focus to deleveraging and paying down debt while continuing to reinvest and performing opportunistic M&A to support key categories as appropriate. Our Board recently approved a 5% dividend increase, the 20th consecutive year of dividend growth, reflecting commitment to return value to shareholders. Our priority is to pay down debt and achieve below 3x adjusted EBITDA net leverage by 2025. We are committed to paying down $700 million in debt maturing at the end of 2024. We'll use balance sheet strength and cash flow generation to pay down additional debt. The acquisitions of HRA and Gateway and the supply chain reinvention are expected to grow adjusted EBITDA. We expect to invest $500 million to $600 million into the business over the next three years, roughly evenly split between supply chain reinvention, innovation, automation and operational efficiency projects, while maintaining strong asset reliability and quality in Nutrition and CSCA. We expect to generate $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion of operating cash flow over the next three years, translating to roughly 100% conversion of net income into operating cash flow, which we will use to reduce debt, support the dividend and reinvest. Near-term priorities between 2023 and 2025 are top-line and bottom-line growth and deleveraging the balance sheet. We expect to leverage 2022 actions to achieve strong 2023 performance while continuing margin recovery. For 2022 we outperformed the 3/5/7 algorithm with 13% reported net sales growth on a constant-currency basis, 11% adjusted operating income and 12% adjusted diluted EPS on a constant-currency basis. We also translated performance into cash, ending 2022 with over $600 million in cash, a cash conversion of 110% of adjusted net income. Over the next three years we expect to continue to outperform the long-term algorithm with low mid-single-digit organic net sales growth, mid-teens adjusted operating income growth and mid- to high-teens adjusted diluted EPS growth. Beyond 2026, we expect to return to the 3/5/7 algorithm consistent with industry norms. Regarding gross margin recovery to pre-pandemic levels of around 40%, in 2022 we began implementing the Perrigo toolbox actions: strategic pricing carryover with benefit in early 2023, benefits from HRA and Gateway acquisitions, and supply chain reinvention expected to expand adjusted gross margin. We also expect to expand operating margin by 300 to 500 basis points by 2025. Contributions include the acquisitions' annualization adding about 100 basis points, HRA synergies of $50 million by 2025 adding another ~100 basis points, and supply chain reinvention adding 100 to 300 basis points. In total, we expect adjusted operating margin of 14% to 16% by 2025. We also expect mid- to high-teens growth in EPS and to reduce interest expense by deleveraging. We estimate around $30 million of benefit from deleveraging actions to appear in EPS beginning 2025. For 2023 specifically, we expect reported net sales growth of 7% to 11%, with organic net sales growth of 3% to 6% driven by base business growth net of portfolio optimization, annualization of acquisitions and a one-time impact related to the HRA distribution transition. We expect adjusted EPS of $2.50 to $2.70, which includes $0.16 to $0.18 of one-time HRA distribution transition cost; excluding that, EPS would be $2.66 to $2.88. Key drivers include base growth, annualization of acquisitions, HRA synergies partially offset by full-year interest expense and a lower level of tax benefits compared to 2022. We expect earnings generation to follow 2022 seasonality with about 40% in H1 and 60% in H2 due to incremental advertising spend, higher employee costs early in the year, HRA distribution transition cost impacts in Q1 and Q3 and supply chain and HRA synergy benefits more pronounced in H2. Our guidance includes an adjusted tax rate of 21.5%, interest expense around $180 million and cash conversion near 100%. In summary, 2023 guidance reflects top-line growth, margin expansion and strong cash generation to support deleveraging and reinvestment while maintaining a growing dividend. I will now invite Murray back to close.

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

Thank you, Eduardo. To summarize, we believe we have a clear path to outsized growth based on a well-supported strategic plan. Our self-care strategy and vision are correct and we will stay the course. We completed the basic phase of transformation and returned to top-line growth. External factors delayed operating income growth, but 2022 saw the business growing ahead of our 3/5/7 goals. We learned from adversity and adjusted our plan. Perrigo is uniquely positioned in the emerging self-care category. We are accelerating profitable growth by refining strategic pillars and investing in enablers, making necessary cultural changes and becoming increasingly global. We are optimizing our global supply chain, which should bring gross margins to over 40% across the strategic horizon. We are committed to reducing leverage below 3x by 2025. All of this adds up to delivering growth above the 3/5/7 algorithm and outpacing consumer peers. On valuation, Perrigo performed in the top quartile of peers in 2022 on many metrics, yet trades at lower multiples, representing compelling value as we continue to perform and improve. Most importantly, our focus each day is to make lives better for people who depend on Perrigo products. With that, my team and I will answer your questions.

Operator, Operator

Welcome to the Q&A portion of Perrigo's 2023 Investor Day. My name is Leila, and I will be your operator today. Our first question is from Chris Schott from JPMorgan.

Christopher Schott, Analyst, JPMorgan

So just a couple of questions here. Maybe to kick off on gross margins. Can you talk a little more about what we should expect for gross margins in 2023 and how that is reflected in the guidance? I'm trying to get a sense of how to bridge from the roughly 36% you saw in 2022 to the 40% target; how much of that occurs in 2023 versus being dependent on longer-term initiatives in 2024 and 2025? Also, there's been a lot of quarter-to-quarter variability. When I think of Perrigo going forward, can we expect that variability to be reduced as the environment normalizes and as you execute these initiatives, or is some degree of variability inherent in the business? Finally, on the OTC oral contraceptive opportunity in the U.S., how large could peak sales be for Perrigo and how much of that is baked into the 2025 targets?

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

On a macro level, though our average for 2022 looked like about 36%, we started much lower and gained 500 basis points through the year, so we're exiting at a much higher level. Eduardo, do you want to share what we expect this year?

Eduardo Bezerra, Chief Financial Officer

Hi Chris. We ended 2022 at 38.4% gross margin. For 2023 we expect around 200 basis points of improvement and then the remaining improvement to reach 40% by 2025 should be fairly evenly distributed between 2024 and 2025.

Christopher Schott, Analyst, JPMorgan

Great. On the quarter-to-quarter variability, is some of that environment-driven versus in your control, and should investors expect variability to be reduced going forward?

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

When I first joined, the first nine quarters we met or exceeded expectations pre-COVID. The past few years have not been normal. Perrigo manages very high complexity — our complexity quotient. The volatility we experienced came from major shocks: cough and cold demand changes removed about 20% of our business during COVID and then returned; the infant formula crisis was another major variability driver. Labor shortages, supply chain issues and input cost inflation all compounded the variability. We have addressed the bulk of these issues. For the plan we put out for next year, we have line of sight to the inputs and capacity required. We have a much higher degree of confidence going forward than over the last couple of years.

Christopher Schott, Analyst, JPMorgan

One last question on Opill — can Alison provide a quick regulatory update and your view on timing? How much are you baking that in to your models?

Alison Ives, Chief Scientific Officer

Approval is an FDA decision, but we have a strong data package and there's a clear unmet need given the 40 million women at risk of unintended pregnancy each year. We have strong support from major health organizations and key opinion leaders. We believe the application could be approved this year and we look forward to the public advisory committee discussion.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Elliot Wilbur from Raymond James.

Elliot Wilbur, Analyst, Raymond James

Following up on Opill, it's a progestin-only product. Another company is working on an estrogen-based OTC product. Longer term, would you anticipate pursuing estrogen-based or combination oral contraceptives and how receptive is the FDA likely to be beyond a progestin-only product?

Alison Ives, Chief Scientific Officer

We will evaluate all options. With HRA we are building a leading women's health capability. Opill is a first major step. If approved, we will look at additional women's health switches and products as part of a broader strategy.

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

There is an advantage to progestin-only from a side effect standpoint without much efficacy trade-off. The strategy is broader than Opill; we aim to be a leader in women's health globally and we already have strength in emergency contraception outside the U.S., ANDAs in the U.S., and other opportunities.

Elliot Wilbur, Analyst, Raymond James

Follow-up on manufacturing optimization and forecast improvements — how important is forecast accuracy in your reinvention plan compared to reducing complexity or sourcing optimization? How much has forecasting contributed to the shortfalls over the past few years?

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

At the heart of supply chain, the first thing to fix is forecasting. If we can give Ron an accurate forecast four months out, he'll be able to deliver and hit it. We were below the required accuracy levels and that caused inefficiency and lost sales. Improving forecast accuracy is fundamental to fixing service levels and unlocking sales.

Ron Janish, Head of Global Supply Chain

We manage a very complex supply chain with many retailer-specific SKUs. Improving visibility of customer needs at the SKU level will help us plan better. We've already implemented SKU-level forecasting in many areas, we're moving to collaborative planning with retailers and introducing technology to improve forecasting. Coupled with portfolio simplification, this will enable better delivery of the products customers and consumers need.

Elliot Wilbur, Analyst, Raymond James

Regarding SKU rationalization, how do retailers typically react when you propose reducing count sizes or SKUs? Is there resistance or are they receptive if service levels and economics improve?

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

Separate SKU optimization from portfolio simplification. SKU optimization — discontinuing low or negative margin items — is straightforward and retailers see the logic. Simplification — harmonizing packaging, counts and other attributes across retailers — reduces complexity and improves productivity and service. We have consumer research showing 80% of the complexity is not consumer-facing, and retailers are receptive when they understand improved service and profitability. This will take a measured effort with customers, but it's a large opportunity to improve capacity and unlock sales.

Elliot Wilbur, Analyst, Raymond James

One more — on pricing: what incremental pricing is embedded in 2023? Historically Perrigo has had modest pricing headwinds. How much of that is competitive pressure versus selling mix and how do you think about price cadence going forward?

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

Perrigo was caught in a legacy paradigm that over-emphasized fill-rate over differentiation. We have stabilized pricing. In 2022 we took about 4% pricing, with volume continuing to grow. We did not pursue pricing to the same degree as some consumer peers who took 8% to 12% pricing and saw declining volume. Our approach is value-focused: we do not want to raise prices in a way that erodes value; our customers don't want that and neither do we. We will price to offset inflation if needed, but we are focused on service, innovation and converting share through value and accessibility rather than aggressive price increases.

Eduardo Bezerra, Chief Financial Officer

On pricing specifics, much of our pricing progress occurred in CSCI where inflation pressures were high. We built incremental pricing in 2022 and are confident in organic growth assumptions for 2023.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from Daniel Biolsi from Hedgeye.

Daniel Biolsi, Analyst, Hedgeye

First, can you explain what caused lower manufacturing productivity experienced in Q4 and whether that was SKU proliferation? How is hiring, training and overtime progressing for labor? Second, did the government actions during the infant formula shortage permanently alter the competitive environment for international capacity? Third, any change to the M&A strategy given many assets are being sold in the market and higher rates — would you consider equity deals? Lastly, any further divestments beyond what you outlined?

James Dillard, President, Consumer Self-Care Americas (CSCA)

For Q4 productivity, in mid-2022 we struggled with labor availability like many peers, leaving some facilities understaffed and reducing output. Through concerted efforts across supply, operations and HR, we've returned to roughly 98% to 99% of required staffing and do not expect 2022-style productivity challenges in 2023.

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

On Q4, a few items impacted sales: a commercial dispute with a third-party packer for infant formula which required legal action to resolve; cough/cold bottling constraints due to labor; and some customers reduced inventory. Those issues have been addressed and the year started strong in 2023. Regarding infant formula, some temporary permissions allowed European and New Zealand suppliers in during the crisis. Going forward, suppliers need to meet FDA regulations to remain competitive in the U.S. Some temporary entrants won't compete on price once shipping is included. We continue to support store brands and some of the organic brands that have done well are actually manufactured by Perrigo, which benefits us. On M&A, the market has a number of assets available and private equity has capital to deploy. For Perrigo we are taking a breath: integrating HRA and Gateway and focusing on deleveraging to improve our balance sheet. We may pursue smaller opportunistic transactions, but our priority is execution and reducing leverage. Equity-based purchases are not our near-term focus given our valuation and desire to strengthen the balance sheet. We expect to revisit larger M&A in 2025 if appropriate.

Daniel Biolsi, Analyst, Hedgeye

Thanks. One quick follow-up: will there be any further portfolio refinement divestitures that could help pay down debt?

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

Yes. There will likely be some additional portfolio refinement — we still have work to do to become a pure-play self-care company — and proceeds from those refinements will help pay down debt next year.

Operator, Operator

I'll now hand over to Brad to take questions from the online audience.

Bradley Joseph, Head of Investor Relations and Communications

There were a couple of questions submitted online. One relates to HRA integration. How is the integration process coming along, what is going right and what could go wrong in broad terms?

Eduardo Bezerra, Chief Financial Officer

From my perspective we're off to a very good start. HRA performed well in 2022 and this has been one of the best planned integrations I've seen. We started integration planning 18 months ago with 13 working projects, and execution to date on sales and synergies looks strong. The transition of distribution and the associated one-time costs are planned, and overall I'm confident in our ability to execute the integration.

Bradley Joseph, Head of Investor Relations and Communications

Another online question for Grainne on ESG: how have you incorporated ESG metrics into executive performance awards and are you moving to more quantifiable measures?

Grainne Quinn, Chief Medical Officer (also leads DEI/ESG efforts)

We have aligned ESG objectives with corporate goals and integrated them into executive performance metrics. This includes targets tied to human capital, sustainability, health and safety and other strategic ESG priorities. We report details in our ESG and DEI reports. We are continuing to refine and quantify objectives to increase accountability and link outcomes to performance awards.

Bradley Joseph, Head of Investor Relations and Communications

We have reached the end of the Q&A queue. I'll turn it back over to Murray.

Murray Kessler, Chief Executive Officer and President

Thank you for listening to the Perrigo Investor Day webcast. We hope you are as excited as we are about how far the company has come over the past four years and the opportunity as we move to the next phase of our strategy, called optimization and acceleration. Simply put, we will focus on execution of integrations and simplification. If we do that well, we will deliver outsized, predictable growth and create value. Most importantly, we'll make lives better for people who use Perrigo products. Thank you for your interest in Perrigo.