Earnings Call Transcript - RACE Q1 2022

Nicoletta Russo, Corporate Communications

Thank you, Stephen, and welcome to everyone who is joining us. Today, we plan to cover the group's Q1 2022 operating results, and the duration of the call is expected to be around 60 minutes. Today's call will be hosted by the Group CEO, Mr. Benedetto Vigna; and Group CFO, Mr. Antonio Piccon. All relevant materials are available in the Investors section of the Ferrari corporate website. And at the end of the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions. Before we begin, let me remind you that any forward-looking statements we might make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included on Page 2 of today's presentation, and the call will be governed by this language. With that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Benedetto.

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Nicoletta. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I would like to start by thanking all the women and men in Ferrari for their passion and dedication, which has been essential to navigate the first months of this year. All of them contributed with their tireless effort in achieving the strong results that we are going to present today. Before addressing our results for the first quarter of '22, I would like to spend a few words on the current international scenario and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While opening for a rapid return to dialogue and peaceful resolution, our thoughts and support go out to those affected. Ferrari is playing its small part alongside the institution to bring relief to this situation. In relation to this ongoing crisis and its implications, our supply chain has continued to prove its resilience, guaranteeing smooth production at our facilities. We have no doubt the current macroeconomic scenario is causing new challenges. However, our team in Ferrari, also with the support of our partners, has been able to manage this situation properly. That said, while we continue to monitor the current scenario on our supply chain, we have not been immune to inflation. However, this is limited to a portion of our cost base. In fact, we have seen some increase in energy and certain raw material costs, mainly aluminum and precious metals. But in light of this, we immediately took two actions to preserve our profitability: the first, in fall of last year, we applied a price increase across our current product range; the second, we just set the price positioning of our new models to adequately reflect our estimates on cost inflation. At the beginning of the year, we announced the new organizational structures achieved through both the promotion of homegrown talent and a number of key strategic external hires. The new organization is designed to further foster innovation, optimize processes, enhance agility, and increase collaboration, being open and more horizontal. And I'm very much delighted to see that we are on the right transformation path. Moving to the first quarter result, I'm very pleased to highlight the following four record quarterly data: The first, the revenues at €1.2 billion, up 17% versus the prior year; EBITDA at €423 million; industrial free cash flow generation was approximately €300 million, almost twice compared to what we achieved a year ago, sustained by the strong profitability in the advances collected on the Daytona SP3. Our order book continues to be very strong, much stronger than ever, and it covers well into 2023. I'm proud to state that most of our models are already sold out, and this is not just for the limited series. All of this was made possible, thanks to the following three elements: number one, our product offer is truly astonishing, it now includes V8 and V12 thermal engines as well as V8 and V6 hybrid solutions, further enriched by the recent unveiling of the 296 GTS; number two, the strength of our net order intake that continued over the quarter; number three, the exceptionally strong performance of the pre-owned business sustained by the economic climate. As part of our recent activities, I would also like to underline the following three key facts. Let's start with the signature of the Memorandum of Understanding with the Italian Ministry of Economic Development Invitalia and the Emilia-Romagna region. This agreement will focus on industrial projects and research and development activities for new technologies aimed at bringing tangible benefits from an environmental perspective as well as increasing digitalization. Such projects will further foster our competitive advantage since they will ensure the vertical integration of key components to be handcrafted here in Maranello. The plant will lead to the employment of 250 new hires, further boosting the territory of Maranello in Modena as a hub for excellence and increasingly attractive to new skill sets required by the automotive industry. Secondly, the Daytona SP3 was awarded with the Red Dot: Best of the Best. This international award, once again, is a testament to the passionate work of all the Ferrari team. And finally, the Annual General Meeting approved a dividend distribution of approximately €250 million, representing a 57% increase of the dividend paid per share compared to the prior year. This is combined with our ongoing multi-year share repurchase program to reward our shareholders. Now let's move to product excellence and customers' activities. In the last few months, we have continued our engagement activities with clients and the media with the 296 GTB, a model that is receiving unanimous praise, giving the utmost level of fun-to-drive experience, coupled with our innovative V6 hybrid engine. Evidence of such success is the robust order collection, a record level in a quarter if compared to any other model, and it paves the way for the recently unveiled 296 GTS, its Spider version. The 296 GTS marks a further step in our electrification journey and reached our hybrid offering, now made up of 4 different models and covering differentiated needs of our customer base. This latest product launch is the fifth cornerstone on our electrification path after LaFerrari, SF90 Stradale, SF90 Spider, and 296 GTB. Moreover, with the launch of the 296 GTS, we are just one step away from completing the 15 models promised at the 2018 Capital Market Day. And this leads me to the last but not least launch, the highly coveted and much-anticipated Purosangue, a unique and uncompromising Ferrari. At this heart beats the most iconic Ferrari engine of all time, our naturally aspirated V12, celebrating the bloodline of performance, innovation, and excellence. I can testify to its outstanding driving experience while I was driving it on the roads close to Maranello. It has agility and the fun-to-drive typical of our sports car, believe me. What also thrills me is seeing the Formula 1 racing team competing back at the top, thanks to our current drivers and the F1-75, which has proved itself to be reliable and up for the highest challenge. It is mine and the whole team's greatest satisfaction to see our hard work starting to pay off. In GT racing, we are consolidating the great performance of last year, with several victories already achieved. Important to underline that the motorsport season has just begun, and we will continue to fight race by race with ambition and humility. Attention to detail, focus, and continuous learning will be key as the season unfolds. We are also on track for our return in WEC Top Class from 2023 that will have its highlight in the Le Mans 24 hours, a race where so many great chapters in our motor racing history have been played out. It is a competition that represents another opportunity for us to fight at the highest level while pushing the boundaries of technology on the track to then transfer it to the next generation of Ferrari road cars. Moving to the brand diversification activities. In February, we hosted the second fashion show during the Milan Fashion Week, presenting our new Ferrari fall winter collection, which received international acclaim. Lastly, I look forward to meeting you in person here in Maranello on June 16 when we will open the doors of our company to analysts, investors, and journalists to present the industrial plan for the coming years. The Capital Market Day will allow us the opportunity to articulate our constant drive for innovation, exclusivity, and excellence. In June, we will share with all attendees our future strategy well-grounded in a solid plan. I will now hand over to Antonio, who will review the Q1 '22 results.

Antonio Piccon, CFO

Thank you, Benedetto, and good morning or afternoon to everyone joining us today. Let's start on Page 7 with the highlights of this first quarter, a very strong start, actually, to the year with 2 or even 3-digit growth for all our KPIs. Shipments were 3,251 units, up more than 17% versus the prior year. Group net revenues were €1.186 billion, up 17% versus the prior year. EBITDA reached €423 million, up 12.5% year-over-year with an EBITDA margin of 35.6%. This was lower compared to the extraordinary highs of last year since the exceptionally strong product mix of Q1 '21 in terms of gross margin recovering from 2020 was further emphasized by steel restrained costs. EBIT was €307 million, up 15.4% year-over-year. Net profit came in at €239 million, up 16.4% versus prior year, resulting in a diluted EPS of €1.29 compared to €1.11 in Q1 '21. The industrial free cash flow generation for the quarter was strong at €299 million, supported by the collection of the advances for the Daytona SP3 and the 812 Competizione A. Turning to Page 8, you can see the details of the Q1 shipments. From now on, we will show the breakdown of our shipments into ICEs and hybrids. As we already noted, the previous fleet based on the number of cylinders has become less and less meaningful. The product portfolio in the quarter included 8 thermal engine models and 2 hybrids, representing 83% and 17% of total shipments, respectively. As per our programs, our hybrid offer will be further enriched by the start of deliveries of the 296 GTB in the second quarter while we continue to serve the impressive order book recorded for all our current range, including certain ICE models whose life cycle has been extended. Deliveries in the quarter were driven by the Ferrari Roma, the SF90 family, and the Portofino M. In the quarter, we also commenced the first delivery of the 812 Competizione, while those of the Ferrari Monza SP1 and SP2 were lower than the prior year and reached the end of the limited series run. Quarterly shipments reflected a deliberate geographic allocation in response to port congestion experienced in the first month of the year, which explains the decrease of our deliveries to America. On Page 9, you can see the work of our group revenues. At constant currency, they grew by 16.6%. Revenues from cars and spare parts were up 18%, net of the different exchange rates, driven by volumes, positive product mix and pricing together with the contribution from personalizations. Revenues from personalizations were higher than the prior year in absolute terms, sustained by volumes, while substantially in line around 17% in proportion to revenues from cars and spare parts. Engine revenues were down 19%, given the lower shipments to Maserati, whose contract is approaching expiration in 2023. The increase in sponsorship, commercial and brand up more than 17% at constant currency was essentially attributable to the better prior year Formula 1 ranking and the contribution from brand-related activities. This was partially offset by lower sponsorship. Other revenues were mainly related to other supporting activities. Currency, including translation and transaction impacts as well as foreign currency hedges, had a total positive contribution of €8 million, mostly related to the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese Yuan. As we move to Page 10, let me review the change in our EBIT Bridge, explained by the following variances. Volume was positive for €59 million, reflecting the shipments increase. Mix price variance was also positive in absolute terms for €13 million, driven by the product mix, supported by the SF90 family and personalizations. This was just partly offset by the increased weight of the Portofino M and the Ferrari Roma, as well as the lower contribution of the Ferrari Monza. Please remind that we expect the product mix variance to become negative as the year-end falls, given the phase-out of the Monzas in Q1 and the phase-in of the Daytona SP3 in 2023. Industrial and R&D expenses grew €18 million in the quarter due to energy and some material cost increases, as anticipated by Benedetto, as well as higher depreciation and amortization. SG&A were negative by €14 million, mainly reflecting definitely more lively communication and marketing activities and our lifestyle events as well as the company organizational development. Other were substantially flat. In essence, this reflects a better prior year Formula 1 ranking and higher contribution from brand-related and other supporting activities, offset by lower sponsorship, reduced engine shipments to Maserati, and various other expenses also accrued on the basis of current year ranking. The total net impact of currency was positive for €2 million. As a result of what I just mentioned, EBIT reached €307 million, up 15.4% versus the prior year with an EBIT margin of 25.9%. Turning to Page 11, the remarkable industrial free cash flow generation of this quarter determined by the strong profitability, as already mentioned through the advances on the Daytona SP3 and the 812 Competizione A, within our wider definition of working capital was offset only in part by the inventory increase related to the project volume growth for the year as well as by capital expenditure of €132 million. The pace of spending is in line with our plans to contain CapEx at around €800 million in 2022. In the quarter, the capitalization ratio of our development expenses was approximately 38%, in line with the prior year. Net industrial debt as of the end of March '22 was €136 million compared to €297 million at December 2021, barely reflecting the significant free cash flow net of €135 million paid in the context of our share repurchase program. As anticipated by Benedetto, the Annual General Meeting approved the dividend distribution of approximately €250 million to be paid in a couple of days on May 6. On Page 12, we confirm the guidance for 2022, which firmly targets solid growth on all metrics and robust cash generation amidst all the challenges that this dramatic start of the year is posing in several respects. I think this completes our review for the quarter. As usual, I thank you for listening and very much look forward to seeing you soon in Maranello at our Capital Markets Day.

Nicoletta Russo, Corporate Communications

Thank you, Antonio. We are now ready to start the Q&A session. Stephen, I'll turn the call over to you.

Giulio Pescatore, Analyst

I have a couple of questions regarding the guidance. Your target range suggests an EBIT margin of about 23% at the higher end over the next nine months. Doesn't that seem a bit too conservative given the higher R&D and the weakening mix? Additionally, could you clarify the situation with the Monza? Can you confirm that there are no deliveries scheduled for Q2 and that it was completely phased out in Q1? Lastly, I appreciate the additional information on the V12 engine for the Purosangue. Can you explain the reasoning behind launching the Purosangue without a hybrid system, especially considering our expectations for this model to strengthen your position in China?

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Okay. Thank you, Giulio. I start with the second question, and then Antonio will comment on the first one. So the Purosangue will be a naturally aspirated V12, our iconic model. We have been testing different options. But then I think it was clear that to celebrate the bloodline of the performance, the innovation experience, the V12 and the performance that this product can deliver has been the right solution to push to the market. So there has been a clear result of our testing and also our discussion with the market. For the Monza, I can reaffirm what Antonio said that we stopped production and the sales of Monza in Q1. For the other part of the question, Antonio, you may help in this direction.

Antonio Piccon, CFO

Yes, Giulio, the guidance that we provided on EBIT is based on the fact that DNA will accrue over the course of the year, not linearly, but based on the start of production of our new models. So it's basically growing during the course of the year.

Giulio Pescatore, Analyst

Okay. And as a follow-up on the guidance, we also saw the U.S. dollar appreciating quite significantly. Is that already reflected in the guidance you have?

Antonio Piccon, CFO

Yes. The reason we are not making significant changes is that we are adhering to a foreign exchange hedging policy. There may be opportunities depending on what is free from hedging, but we prefer to stay cautious because currency movements are unpredictable.

Martino De Ambroggi, Analyst

The first is on the guidance. If I take your volumes in Q1 and then multiply by 4, which is quite usual in normal years in the past, I get something in the region of 13,000 units. So first question, is it reasonable to consider this figure as the underlying volumes in your full-year guidance?

Antonio Piccon, CFO

Martino, maybe I take this one. As you know, we do not comment on shipments. I think our revenues are really what is driving our results. So we are focusing on that one. We may add that, obviously, due to the significant order book, shipments will remain high over the course of the year, yes.

Martino De Ambroggi, Analyst

Okay. The second part of the question, even if it's not 13,000 in any case, it is a significant growth for just one year. And if I remember correctly, your output capacity is 15,000, 16,000. So if you maintain the same pace also knowing that the Purosangue will be all additional, we don't know the amount of volumes but will be additional. So probably you have another 2 or 3 years' time before needing to either add a shift or add capacity, just to know what you're thinking about it.

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

It's a good question. Martino, thank you. I think you will have a clear answer to all your deductions, let's say, on the 16th of June. What I can tell you is that also for all the cars we make, we will keep clear in mind the exclusivity. You remember well, the capacity that we have is in that ballpark. I can tell you that we are not planning investment to increase that number.

Martino De Ambroggi, Analyst

Okay. And the last question is a more specific question on prices. During your introduction remarks, you mentioned that you already revised upward prices last year in order to offset raw material and other cost inflation, and you are also revising prices this year. Could you provide us just a rough indication of the amount of price revision?

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

The price increase that has been already applied is in the range of 2%. This is already, I mean, delivered to the market. It's on the process. Some is out already in Q1, and some others are coming.

Martino De Ambroggi, Analyst

Okay. So I was wrong in understanding there was one last year and another one coming.

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

No, you are correct. There are two aspects to consider: the old model and the new model. The old model corresponds to the price increase range I mentioned earlier. The new model involves a different price increase that is not the same as the 2%. So, you have accurately understood that we are discussing two distinct matters.

Susy Tibaldi, Analyst

So my first one would be on the demand, which you already indicated continues to be extremely strong. Your order books are record high, but can you just give us some more comments qualitatively? I mean, are you really not seeing any impact from all the macro pressures that we are seeing? So maybe by geography, is there anything at all that may be worth flagging? Or is this high-end consumer really spending the same as before or even more?

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

Sure. I’ll start with your second question, Susy. In China, we are experiencing strong traction with the 8 cylinders, both ICE and hybrid. This summarizes our outlook for China. Regarding demand trends, we are monitoring the situation closely. We anticipate a different pattern because many models are sold out, including the F8, Portofino, and 812. We expect this change as we have intentionally chosen to sell out and discontinue some models.

George Galliers, Analyst

The first question is on the Purosangue, again. So I'm very excited to see this, and thank you for the incremental details. When you think about the pricing of the Purosangue and its exclusivity, obviously, if we look at some of the other high-end utility vehicles in the market, we're seeing huge waitlists and cars being sold on very quickly in the secondhand market at very large premiums. So when you think about the pricing of the Purosangue, do you plan to price it at a level where Ferrari is the main beneficiary for the strong demand rather than sellers in the used car market? And are you also taking any additional measures to control which customers are prioritized on the product? The second question I had was just on the deposits. I don't know if you could confirm what percent of deposits on the Competizione A and the Daytona have been taken during the quarter?

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

I will address the question about the Purosangue. Regarding its pricing, we have a clear strategy in mind, but we are unable to make any changes. We aim to maintain the car's exclusivity, which is a key principle in our approach. This exclusivity will also apply to the Purosangue. We have specific thoughts on pricing and our target customer base, and we will reveal these details at the appropriate time. Now, for the question about advanced payments, Antonio can provide additional insights.

Antonio Piccon, CFO

George, the net impact of contribution of the Daytona and the Competizione A is in the region of €80 million. Obviously, this is a net impact, meaning the cash inflow has been higher than that. And half of it is due to the Daytona. And then we have a negative, which is the amount not collected on the Monza because already collected in the previous year. So it's basically a net between €120 million cash in and €30 million less collections on the Monza. Hope it helps.

Stephen Reitman, Analyst

I have a couple of questions. First of all, could you give us the number of Monza SP1, SP2s that were sold in this final quarter for this year? Secondly, could you comment a bit about what you said about the order book, you've mentioned very strong orders for the F8, which obviously is in its last selling period. When will this be finished relative to the SP being replaced by the 296 GTB and obviously, the GTS? And finally, on sponsorship for the Formula 1 team, I understand obviously you lost your mission we know and has become like a co-sponsor but is no longer the main headline sponsor. Could you comment on what's happening on negotiations for replacing it? And I suspect that given the strong performance of the Formula 1 team, the negotiations are getting easier in terms of finding a main sponsor.

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

I'll start with the sponsors. As mentioned in the call, we have a broader range of partners willing to collaborate with us, including technology companies, banks, and new players in the economy. This indicates a positive trend. We are becoming increasingly attractive as we continue to secure more Grand Prix events. In summary, while we did lose a significant sponsor, its contribution is not as impactful as it was in the past, and we now have access to a more diverse group of sponsors.

Antonio Piccon, CFO

And the last information was the number of Monza sold in Q1, and the number is 40.

Thomas Besson, Analyst

It's Thomas from Kepler Cheuvreux. I also have a couple of questions, please. Firstly, I would like to confirm that your first quarter was probably the strongest in terms of profitability and free cash flow for the year.

Antonio Piccon, CFO

Yes. Yes, Thomas. This has been a record quarter on all key metrics. Yes, you're right, in absolute terms.

Thomas Besson, Analyst

It is reasonable to expect that the next three quarters may be slightly weaker because while there will still be volume benefits, the mix will not be as favorable as before.

Antonio Piccon, CFO

Yes, this is a fair assumption. This is based on product mix on one end, the fact that we stopped selling the Monza at the end of the first quarter will not have yet the Daytona that is coming in 2023. And also in terms of the cash flow, this is due to the pace of selection of the deposits during the course of the year. And obviously, capital expenditure is growing and not linearly during the course of the year.

Gabriel Adler, Analyst

There are two questions left from my side. Just coming back to free cash flow, you're very clearly running ahead of the run rate implied by the guidance. It was about €600 million. So could you provide some more color, please, on your expectations of working capital and CapEx through the year and the ramp that you expect to see that? And then secondly, on volumes. I appreciate that you don't specifically guide on this, but I think previously, you've commented that the first half should be stronger than the second. Could you confirm whether that's still your expectation for the year?

Antonio Piccon, CFO

Yes. Sure, Gabriel. I think the first question in terms of cash flow, in terms of capital expenditure, that is basically the main negative starting from the EBITDA. We expect it to annually grow up to approximately €800 million, an overall figure. The pace of development, though, is not linear during the course of the year. It's more exponential. That adds, of course, in terms of working capital around year-end. So we expect also working capital, including deposits to be a positive in the year. And the guidance, the overall guidance is for not less than €600 million, overall, in industrial free cash flow.

Gianluca Bertuzzo, Analyst

I have two questions on the Purosangue, if I may. First one, if we look at some of your peers in the luxury industry, they faced cannibalization of the GT models after the launch of their SUV. Do you think this is a risk also for Ferrari as GT models represent almost 1/3 of your shipments? And the second one, do you have a certain threshold beyond which you will not go for the SUV in terms of volume compared to your total shipments?

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

I will address the second question first. We will maintain exclusivity for the Purosangue. We have specific numbers in mind regarding its production in relation to our total volume. Regarding your first question, we believe that offering different Ferrari models for various customers or occasions is a viable strategy that relates to the previous inquiry. We have been actively marketing multiple models, and this approach has proven successful. Therefore, we do not anticipate a significant risk of cannibalization.

Adam Jonas, Analyst

It's Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley. Can you hear me?

Antonio Piccon, CFO

Yes, we can.

Adam Jonas, Analyst

Okay. Great. So remind us of the technical production capacity for the entire company, body shop, paint shop, post Purosangue. You referred to it earlier, but I didn't hear the exact number or range of units.

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

15,000. Adam, 15,000.

Adam Jonas, Analyst

And just as a follow-up, the 250 new hires in Maranello and Modena, you referred to the vertical integration of handcrafted components. That's a lot of employment, that's 5% of your company, non-insignificant. Can you tell us what kind of components and technologies that these talented and very lucky individuals will be working on?

Benedetto Vigna, CEO

I know you are curious and you would like to have an answer. I think that we will have the pleasure to meet in person in a few weeks, and we will tell you exactly what we want to do, which are the strategic components we want to do in-house. So bear with me if I ask you for a little bit more patience. But I read all your reports, I see. But allow us to wait still a few weeks, then we meet and will explain, and we'll show you with a clear presentation, I think, the strategic part that we want to make here. Thank you all for your time and attention this afternoon and for your questions. This will be the last time I ask for your patience regarding answers, as the next meeting will be in person, where the team and I will address all your inquiries. The first quarter we just closed was a strong start, with very good metrics across the board. During the Capital Market Day, we plan to outline our strategy for the coming year and will answer all your questions. I am looking forward to seeing you in June in Maranello. Thank you again, good afternoon, and I hope to see you soon.

Operator, Operator

Thank you very much, Mr. Vigna. This now concludes the conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.