Earnings Call Transcript
Ferrari N.V. (RACE)
Earnings Call Transcript - RACE Q3 2023
Nicoletta Russo, Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, Nadia, and welcome to everyone who is joining us. Today we plan to cover the group's Q3 2023 operating results, and the duration of the call is expected to be around 60 minutes. Today's call will be hosted by the group CEO, Mr. Benedetto Vigna, and the group's CFO, Mr. Antonio Picca Piccon. All relevant materials are available in the Investors section of the Ferrari corporate website. And at the end of the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions. Before we begin, let me remind you that any forward-looking statements we might make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the Safe Harbor statement included on Page 2 of today's presentation. And the call will be governed by this language. With that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Benedetto.
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
Gracias, Nicoletta, and thank you everyone for joining us today. Before we begin, I would like to thank all the women and men of Ferrari for their outstanding work, all our clients for their continuous trust in our brands, and all our partners, suppliers, dealers, and sponsors with whom we have continued to strengthen our relations. In the current macroeconomic context, we are continuing to execute our business plan in line with the trajectory outlined last year during our Capital Market Day. And Q3 was once again a quarter full of achievements. Three are the key messages we want you to focus on. One, record Q3 financial results sustaining our greater confidence toward year-end guidance. Two, product and infrastructure development are well on track, in particular on the electrification side with the full electric Ferrari in prototype phase and the e-building proceeding as planned. Three, continued strong brand momentum forward towards two new model launches, the 296 Challenge and 499P Modificata, an outstanding event attendance in Italy and in the United States. So let's start with financial results and the business performance of our company. Q3 was a record quarter. We have all key metrics showing a double-digit growth versus the previous year. For the first time, the revenues were above €1.5 billion, 24% up versus the prior year. We have a shipment 9% up. All geographic regions grew in the first nine months. EBITDA about €600 million and EBIT over €420 million were both up about 40%, driven by product mix and personalization. And last but not least, the industrial free cash flow generation was more than €300 million. These results are further proof of the strength of our business, and the increase and the visibility towards the end of the year led us to revise upward the full-year outlook. The vitality of our business is also confirmed by the current order book, which remains at the highest levels across all geographies and models covering the entire 2025. And before you ask, I can already tell you that in the next few months we do not expect the order book to continue to grow since all models are substantially sold out, but one: the Roma Spider. Last week at the dealer annual meeting, I spent one full day with dealers from all over the world, and I received very positive comments on the market sentiment. And by this, I mean throughout, from products to client interest to brand experiences. And again, anticipating one of your questions, I would like to underline that during the dealer annual meeting of last week, I specifically spent time with our dealers in Mainland China, which confirmed that the traction of the brand continues to be very strong. We are also making progress on the future product pipeline. All projects are on track as planned, and in particular, I'm excited about the full electric Ferrari, now a prototype in testing mode. I had the pleasure to see and try it. Unfortunately, I cannot tell you more. You have to be patient. And as you know, this is part of the desirability of our brand. I'm also very proud of how the e-building is progressing towards the inauguration expected in June next year, exactly two years after our Capital Market Day. After finishing the walls, we started already to install the equipment to produce selected strategic components, and by Q1 2024, we will finalize the assembly line of the electric engine and e-axles. Talking about our product offering, last week we unveiled two new outstanding models, both inspired by our racing DNA. In fact, the recent Finali Mondiali at our Mugello race track provided the ideal stage for the unveiling of the latest two additions to our portfolio. The first one is the 296 Challenge. It is an ICE car that makes full use of experience and expertise gained by the company in the field of International GT racing. The result is a car that, in several respects, is very close to the 296 GT3 which debuted in January 2023. The second is the 499P Modificata. It is a strictly limited-series track car and the most high-performance closed-wheel car ever offered for gentlemen driver use, and it's already fully allocated. We are the only brand offering our clients the possibility to drive the newest racing car only six months after the debut on the racetrack in Sebring, inaugurating the new Sport Prototipi Clienti program, which joins the F1 Clienti program. Once again, the Finali Mondiali, the unique reunion of the Ferrari community, celebrates the final events of our client experience on-track. So the participation of almost 30,000 motorsport enthusiasts among clients, tifosi, and employees. In talking about our community, I’m also proud to mention that the Ferrari Gala, which took place in New York in mid-October, was an opportunity to highlight our brand's influence on sports cars, on racing, lifestyle, and beyond, celebrating also the unique bond and shared values between Ferrari in the U.S., which goes back to the earliest days of our histories in the '50s and those are strong today. This event was an opportunity to share a series of unique experiences with such a passionate community. During this three-day exhibition, we had the opportunity to welcome 130,000 visitors at the New York City's Hudson Yards complex. There was also an exclusive charity auction during the Ferrari Gala dinner that raised more than $7 million, and the funds will be devoted to projects supporting education in the community because we believe that giving back is a moral obligation. This quarter, we also had many client experiences on the road, including the Ferrari Cavalcade Classiche, the first Ferrari legacy tours dedicated to the beautiful F40, which saw the participation of 40 owners of F40s from around the world. Moving to the racing world, in the World Endurance Championship, after the victory at the 24 Hours of Le Mans, the Ferrari 499P confirmed to be competitive with podium finishes in Italy, fourth and fifth places in Japan. We are looking forward to our return to action for the grand finale of the season with the eight hours of Bahrain this coming weekend. In Formula 1, the recent developments and improvements provide us with the boost we need to prepare ourselves for the next season. Clearly, we need to keep improving and recover our technical gap. On one side, we are strengthening the team, and on the other side, we are enlarging our racing manufacturing infrastructure, which will grant us the highest development speed and quality. I saw this facility this morning. We are also pleased with the renewal of the multi-year partnership with Puma, which will become our Formula 1 premium partners starting next year. We also strengthened the licensing agreement with Puma for Ferrari-branded products, which they will supply for our racing teams and all other racing activities. Continuing with lifestyle, on top of this partnership that I just mentioned with Puma, Ferrari showcased its latest Spring/Summer 2024 looks during the Milan Fashion Week, a powerful collection perceived by many editors as their absolute favorite so far. We also continue to strengthen our presence with successful activation at Pebble Beach and in New York brand events, creating our own pop-up for our clients to increase collection awareness and visibility. We registered a record level of visitors in our museum, reaching over 650,000 visitors since the beginning of January, confirming the strength of the brand and the passion of our community. For your reference, in the whole of 2022 we had about 620,000 visitors. So, we still have a couple of months to go till year-end. Before leaving the stage to Antonio, I want to comment on our important sustainability journey. While many activities continue to run at the factory level to address Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, and we are looking carefully at energy efficiency and recycled material use, we are engaging our suppliers and our dealers to address Scope 3 emissions. Indeed last week during our dealer annual meeting, for the first time, we also awarded the most active dealers in reducing their CO2 emissions with the Green Award. We will keep this Green Award also for the years to come to maintain wide attention on this important topic for our company. Now, I leave the stage to Antonio to enter into the earnings details.
Antonio Piccon, CFO
Thank you, Benedetto. Good morning or afternoon to everyone joining us today. Starting on Page 4, we present the highlights of the third-quarter results, a quarter which confirms the positive dynamics seen in the first part of the year and represents a further improvement compared to our expectations. Our strong business performance was sustained by a rich product and country mix and high personalization, leading to a remarkable double-digit growth in revenues, profitability, and industrial free cash flow generation. With shipments single-digit higher than last year, revenues were up roughly 24%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 37% with a 38.6% margin. Adjusted EBIT was up 42% with a 27.4% margin, supporting a strong industrial free cash flow generation of €300 million. On Page 5, you can see the details of the Q3 shipments. In the quarter, we continued to serve the highest order book that Benedetto commented, and we are all very proud of. Backed by the above shipments in the quarter, reflecting our volume and product allocation strategy for the year and by geography, EMEA and Americas were up versus the prior year. Deliveries in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan decreased by a few turns, and the rest of APAC was substantially flat year-over-year. All regions are up in the first nine months with the Americas benefiting from a larger share of allocations year-over-year and visibly supporting our margins. The increase in shipments was driven by the 296 and SF90 families together with 812 Competizione A and the Purosangue, which were in their ramp-up phase. In the quarter, the F8 Spider was approaching the end of its lifecycle, and the allocations of the Daytona SP3 continued in line with planning. Lastly, in the quarter, the hybrid wave on total deliveries further improved, reaching 51% and surpassing that of ICE for the first time as a result of the SF90 and the 296 families' contributions. On Page 6, you can see the net revenues posting a strong 26% growth at constant currency. The increase in car and spare parts revenue was driven by higher volumes, a richer product and country mix, as well as stronger personalization and pricing. Personalizations further increased in absolute value in the quarter and reached approximately 19% in proportion to revenues from cars and spare parts, mainly driven by paint, leverage, and the use of carbon. Sponsorship, commercial, and brand reflected higher sponsorships including Formula 1 and World Endurance Championship racing activities and higher commercial revenues as a result of the better previous year's Formula 1 ranking. Engines revenue declined in line with the reduction of supplies to Maserati. Please note that from Q1 2024, we'll stop reporting this item in the bridge analysis as a result of the supply agreement coming to its natural end. Currency had a negative net impact this time mainly reflected on the Chinese yuan and the Japanese yen, and secondarily the U.S. dollar dynamic. Moving to Page 7, the change in adjusted EBIT is explained by the following variances. Volume, positive and reflecting the increase in shipments. Mix and price strongly positive for €170 million, thanks to the very favorable mix, both product mix sustained by the Daytona SP3, 812 Competizione A, and the SF90 families, and country mix driven by the Americas. Obviously, the increased contribution from personalizations and pricing also played a significant role. Industrial and R&D expenses grew €63 million, mainly due to higher depreciation and amortization, and raw materials and component cost inflation. SG&A were slightly negative for €10 million, reflecting the company's additional development and digital infrastructure. 'Other' was positive for €17 million, reflecting higher commercial revenues from a better prior year Formula 1 ranking and new sponsorships. The total net impact of currency was negative for €23 million. With the positive net support of these variances, we achieved the remarkable EBITDA and EBITDA margins that we mentioned. Turning to Page 8, our industrial free cash flow generation for the quarter was strong at €301 million, reflecting the increased profitability partially offset by capital expenditure of €205 million, in line with our product and infrastructure development, and consistent with the full-year target of approximately €850 million, an increase in net working capital, which reflects a seasonal decrease in trade payables during the past summer as a result of our decision to carry higher inventories and accelerate our capital expenditure in the previous months. Notably, the net contribution from advances collected on our future deliveries, including the start of French models in certain countries, was positive, but very limited in the quarter. Net industrial debt at the end of September decreased to €233 million, reflecting the solid industrial free cash flow generation in the quarter, partially offset by €194 million of share repurchases. To conclude on Page 9, we upgraded the guidance for the full year on the back of another very positive quarter. Q3 earnings were supported by an extremely favorable product and country mix enriched with personalization. In addition, it benefited from timing on cost mainly related to racing and a more favorable U.S. dollar dynamic compared to our previous expectations. We expect these positive contributions to be visible also in Q4, despite the planned lower volume allocation, higher D&A linked to product life cycles, continuing inflationary pressure, as well as significant seasonal increases in rising expenses on one side for the development cost for the 2024 Formula 1 car and on the other, the logistics expenses for the last overseas races of the season. All of the above augurs well for 2024, and we are confident and ready in light of its challenges. As we anticipated during our Capital Market Day, next year we expect normalized revenue growth after the very strong start of the business plan, which will be front-loaded. That said, we are obviously conscious of the strength of our margins, which is there and in line with our plans. Many thanks for your attention and let me now turn the call over to Nicoletta.
Nicoletta Russo, Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, Antonio. Nadia, we are now ready to start the Q&A session. Thank you.
Adam Jonas, Analyst
There was a bit cutting out there. It's Adam Jonas. Can you hear me?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
Very well, Adam.
Adam Jonas, Analyst
So to comment, first question on your order book. You said that you don't expect the order book to grow because you're basically sold out. So does this mean that you're only going to take new orders at a pace that replaces your deliveries? Or you're just not taking any new orders? I'm just curious if this is unprecedented or if you're aware. I know you're relatively new to Ferrari, but whether you're aware of the situation happening before?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
No, no, look, thanks for the question, Adam. So in recent years, we had a stronger increase in our order book. We expect this order book not to grow at the same speed for a couple of reasons. Number one, we are allocating the final tail of Purosangue, so it's almost gone, let's say. We cannot take orders on the Roma Spiders. Clearly, we have the special version, but the special versions are all allocated, as are the 499P Modificata. They are all allocated, so we remain confident about the traction of our cars. I was with many clients at the Finale Mondiali last weekend, and there were 600 clients present who were literally in love with our track cars. But clearly, the speed of growth of the order book will not be the same as in the past. We have fewer models to offer to the clients because they eagerly took everything we offer them. So it's a good challenge for us to keep delighting them with unique cars.
Adam Jonas, Analyst
Can you clarify how pricing works from the moment an order is placed, for example, at the back end of your order book in late 2025? What expectations would a Ferrari customer have for the price before configuring their vehicle, and how does that relate to your ability to work with them, possibly considering higher prices? It's important not just for your capability, but also to ensure that customers see the value you provide. In situations where there is a tight order book extending far out, can you confirm that you do not lock in pricing and explain how this has changed over time?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
No, I think I follow. What I want to tell you is that it's true the order book is pretty long. I have to say that during the last years, we gave a clear priority to all our dealers to engage the clients. Also, on one side experiences, on the other side, with the pre-owned cars. So I have to say, and that's also what I said to the dealer last week in Florence, I thanked them because they did what we were committing, what we were asking them to do. And in terms of pricing flexibility, like you said, it's always about finding the right balance in increasing the price of what is already contracted versus not upsetting the client. I think we have the bond. Let me say, the link and understanding with the client is such that we can continue to manage it in the same way we did so far. So I do not expect big troubles over there, Adam.
Thomas Besson, Analyst
I have a couple of questions, please. I'd like to start first with the level of your revised 2023 target. When you compare it with the 2026 targets you showed us at the Investor Day 18 months ago, clearly you've done better than you are assuming for '22. You're going to do a lot better than you were assuming for '23. So the question is simply, is there a plan at one stage in February or maybe in June next year when we visit your EV plant to eventually raise the '26 targets? Or are you going to leave us with these '26 targets for longer? That's the first question. The second, you have fully sold everything you're going to make until the end of 2025. Can you talk about the impact this has on your residuals on existing vehicles on the road? And share with us the share of used vehicle sales in your cars and spare parts revenues and explain whether this is going to increase? Do you plan to control a higher proportion of your used car business in the future or not?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
So I take the first one. Thomas, thanks for the question. So we confirm the plan we shared with you one year ago. You have to wait still a few quarters more than your visit, maybe next June, before we update our plan. We will not review this before '25, okay, the year '25. We want to do what we committed in front of our shareholders to do in 2022. The second, I will start, and then Antonio will add as he believes appropriate. It's true that we are sold out. As I said, this is helping a lot in the pre-owned market. I have to say that we see the pre-owned market is pretty healthy. In some sense, yes, it can help to sell spare parts. But I would say that the thing we see is not happening as originally planned at the beginning of the year. I mean, it's going better than we planned. It is the personalization. The spare part, correct me, Antonio, but it's pretty in line with what we saw. No?
Antonio Piccon, CFO
Absolutely. And maybe I can complement on this. In terms of pre-owned vehicles that we sell, it's really limited to the cars that we use for our events, for introducing the car, per se, but in terms of commercial strategy, so in terms of volume, it's really limited to a small number of pieces every year. In terms of interest for controlling the market, that is not for us. It's obviously for our dealers. We encourage our dealers to become more and more present in the pre-owned business. That's certainly an area of further potential development for them.
Thomas Besson, Analyst
Can I maybe have just a quick follow-up? Would it make sense for you, given that you've already sold almost everything you're going to make, to already start selling the BEV products you plan to show us in '25 before showing it to customers, or do you want to show it first to customers?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
No, we will show the BEV in Q4 '25 as planned. So everyone will see, let me say, in that quarter, apart from the people that are working here, obviously, that have to see to make it happen. So it's Q4 '25, Thomas.
Stephen Reitman, Analyst
I have a question regarding the guidance for 2023. Based on calculations, it appears that after a 28% adjusted operating margin in the first nine months, taking the lower end of 26.5% suggests that the margin could drop to as low as 22% in the fourth quarter. This seems quite low compared to the momentum we've observed and the underlying margin of 29.4% that was adjusted for FX impacts and hedges in the third quarter. Could you discuss the headwinds you expect in the fourth quarter? We recognize that your guidance is typically conservative. My second question pertains to Formula 1. Can you provide an update on whether you have fully replaced all the sponsorships lost, specifically Mission Winnow and Velas? I noticed you secured Virtual Gaming World as a sponsor, but does this mean your car is completely liveried and you have everything in place?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
I take the second one. Stephen, thanks for the question. I will then ask Antonio to comment on the first one. Let me say this way. In the last three years, we have been able to lower depend sponsorship-wise. We have been able to lower the dependence on, let's say, a single sponsor. If in the past, this single sponsor was accounting for more than 60% of revenues, now if I take the biggest sponsor in our basket, it's no more than 13%, 14%. I would say that sponsorship-wise, we have been able to enlarge the sponsor base by lowering also the dependence on a big one. This is the answer to the Formula 1 aspect. And then Antonio.
Antonio Piccon, CFO
And Stephen, I think the reasoning is the one I tried to explain in words in my speech. If you look at Q4, what is different compared to the previous quarter is in terms of volumes, lower allocation for the fourth quarter. It's already designed that way since the beginning of the year. Secondly, we have a specificity in terms of the overall seasonality of the spending, particularly R&D expenses to the P&L for racing. If we normalize for that, even at the EBITDA margin level, we get much more in line with the rest of the year. Additionally, if you go to the EBIT margin level, then you should take into consideration the D&A, which is going to grow in Q4. This is due to two elements: one is the start of production of a couple of new models, and the second one is some projects that we are going to start depreciating. That are more related to our infrastructure development of the sales. And thanks for the compliments on being conservative.
Giulio Pescatore, Analyst
And first one, I want to come back on a comment made by one of your competitors. I know you don't comment on competitors, but it was striking because they were calling out weakness in luxury car demand, especially in North America. What they said seemed to starkly contrast with whatever you're saying today. So I'm not asking you to comment on competition, but just what do you think is making the difference here? Why is your demand so much healthier and resilient than some of your peers? Then second one, just a clarification. The track cars you launched, those don't count towards the 15 models expected to be launched by 2026 and the four models for this year? Just a clarification on that. And then very last one, the 499P. Can you give us an indication on volumes and price and when do you expect deliveries to happen? Is there any reason to expect these cars to be less profitable than the limited edition ones you have launched in the past?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
So I start by saying that these two cars are included in the 15 models, as we invested considerable resources in engineering and managing this product. The 296 Challenge is solely an internal combustion engine vehicle, not a hybrid. Our engineering and factory teams have put in a lot of effort to make it a reality. The 499P Modificata is produced in limited quantities, and it will provide our gentleman drivers with the opportunity to experience the same driving thrill as our race pilots who recently won at Le Mans. At Mugello last week, I heard from our gentleman drivers about their excitement to test this car on the racetrack, especially since it does not have to adhere to performance balancing like our drivers do in the World Endurance Championship, allowing them to enjoy the full speed of this vehicle. I would address why we believe we are resilient in two ways. First, Ferrari is considered an ultra-luxury brand that appeals to a different demographic than other brands. Second, I have spent the last two years meeting many people connected to our brand, and I’ve noticed a strong attachment and bond that is quite unique. For example, during my visit to Mugello last weekend, I witnessed a client in tears after the car was unveiled, illustrating the exceptional bond we have with our customers. I will always express my gratitude to them. Our team is dedicated, and our clients place their trust in us.
Giulio Pescatore, Analyst
It's very clear. I hope he didn't start crying because he saw the price tag, but yes.
Monica Bosio, Analyst
The first question is about the shipment allocation for next year. I understand you can't disclose specific details, but I was curious if you are still aiming for a share towards China in the range of 10% or more. My second question is regarding the SF90 XX. Are you planning to receive some advances in 2024 from the SF90 XX? Lastly, can you explain the impact of financial charges in the third quarter and provide a rough expectation for the full year?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
Monica, on the SF90 XX, yes, we'll take advance payment in 2024. The rest is Antonio.
Antonio Piccon, CFO
Yes, absolutely. In China, I think we stick to what we said at the Capital Market Day, meaning for us, China is a market around 10% in terms of share of our annual deliveries in 2024.
Monica Bosio, Analyst
For the next year?
Antonio Piccon, CFO
Yes. In terms of the impact of the purchase of the bond, it creates the gain on sale, which is simply due to the difference between the pricing of the bond at the time we booked it and the pricing at the time we repurchased it. So it's €8 million financial income that we booked in Q3, which is reducing the financial charges net for the first nine months. As a result, for the rest of the year, we expect it to be much lower compared to what we were used to in the previous years, so about half the amount that we booked.
Susy Tibaldi, Analyst
My first one is about inflation because you once again have been mentioning how inflation has been. It remains a headwind and it's been now well 11 months since your price increase earlier in the year. I was wondering if it's something that you are contemplating for next year or if you prefer to adjust to the pricing of the new cars purely through the mix? Secondly, when we think about your medium-term guidance and what has changed since the Capital Markets Day, I guess on the positive side we have seen a very resilient demand, better personalization trends, these price increases. While on the negative side, it's been mostly the higher inflation. Is this the right way to think about these moving parts, or is there something else we should take into account? And then thirdly, a more technical question, but can you give us some color on why your gross margin was much weaker in this third quarter despite the very strong mix?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
Antonio, you take the question?
Antonio Piccon, CFO
Yes, sure. Inflation assumption, we are thinking of a price increase next year. I think we do not have just pricing for cars. Our overall revenues are much wider in principle to the extent needed and subject to the conditions that Benedetto mentioned during his first answer today. I think we remain flexible and look at how costs are proceeding in order to move pricing and eventually take a decision on that going forward. Second, I think you really named the main different elements compared to what we had in mind at the Capital Market Day last year. So far, I think the overall impact, particularly of personalization and pricing on new models, has more than offset the debt coming from cost inflation. Gross margin weaker, it depends really you should not look at that on a quarterly basis. Overall, the product mix and country mix during a single quarter make a difference, obviously together with the level of personalization of the cars entailed. So we're going to take a look at that, but look at that over a wider period of time, and you'll see certainly an improvement nine months over nine months.
George Galliers, Analyst
The first question I had was just with respect to how to think about mix in 2024. Obviously, a lot of exciting products to come, and you're in the process of ramping the Competizione A and the Purosangue. Is it safe to assume that the mix next year should be positive relative to this year, given that product cadence? And the second question I had, Benedetto, if I may, was with respect to the electric Ferrari that you mentioned earlier, obviously a very exciting product for Ferrari. However, a few other luxury premium car makers have noted that at the very top end of their product ranges, customers, particularly in China, have a strong preference for internal combustion engines. They believe the mechanical elements have a higher level of craftsmanship and value compared to electric and digital offerings. To the extent you have discussed the Ferrari EV with certain customers as a project, have you received any similar feedback? Or do you believe that whatever car Ferrari produces will have a similar level of desirability irrespective of the power plants that you put in it?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
So I take the second one. Let me make an introduction, George. You have to look at the way you use the technology. The technology may be the same, but what is making the difference between one company and another is the way you use the technologies. Today, there are many objects, I won't mention which ones, beyond the cars that are all using the same technology, but at the end of the story, one is more successful than the others. It depends how closely this product addresses the real needs of the final client. What I can tell you is that I ask clients for their feedback when they ask for other electric cars. There are two things. One, we in our company did well in 2022 during our Capital Market Day to clarify that we will make three kinds of propulsion: the red, ICE, the blue, hybrid, and the green, electric. Why? Because we want to leave this freedom to the client. The second, we have clients, and that’s what they are telling me. Some will not take the electric car. Some will take both. Other clients want to join the Ferrari family, and their entry point is through the electric Ferrari. I have in mind three clients, who I had dinner with. They were saying they are pushing for sustainability in their family. They created a company in this direction. For me, the way to get in this beautiful, fantastic family is through the electric Ferrari. I cannot get in without an electric Ferrari. This shows the approach to technology. This is the reason why we believe that the recent developments in the technology landscape are giving good confirmation of our strategy. I have to say that the expertise I have in the other business to manage technological transitions has been helping and will help in this direction.
Antonio Piccon, CFO
Yes, sure. George, I think it's maybe too early to speak about 2024 in such detail since we haven't finalized the allocations. However, if you ask me gut feeling where we should be considering the product range that we have and obviously assuming the same level of personalization, I should bet on having the same similar mix to this year. So not such a jump that we are witnessing in 2023 compared to 2022. We know that last year was mainly a volume year. The product mix this year is much richer. Next year will be too, but not at the same distance as we witnessed from last year to this one.
Martino De Ambroggi, Analyst
I have one short-term and one long-term question. The first is on the full year guidance because you revised upwards by more or less €100 million this year your EBITDA guidance. Considering the drivers you commented, I don't know if I'm right, but I suppose Formula 1, okay, was positive, but personalization is by far the most important contributor because, in my view, the mix was already predefined at the beginning of the year. So am I right in assuming that personalization is the big difference between the starting guidance and the current one? And still on the margin, is the Purosangue now in ramp-up phase, probably finalized the ramp-up. Should we assume it's accretive in terms of margins? If you have an update on the volumes that you expect? Last time you guided for less than 10% of total. I don't know if there is a more precise indication at this point of the year.
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
So, Martino, I'll take the second one and the first, Antonio. So first of all, we said 20% over the year, that's the limit of the Purosangue. Yes, we are in a ramp-up phase, but we expected that the margins are in line with the rest of the family.
Antonio Piccon, CFO
On the first one, yes, I think you mentioned it. Personalization is probably the main positive surprise that we had. We acknowledge that we also had positive support that is right compared to our initial expectations. That obviously helped.
Martino De Ambroggi, Analyst
Okay. So I was referring to the volumes for the current year for the Purosangue because this year obviously is by far less than 20%.
Antonio Piccon, CFO
Okay. Thank you, Martino. I misunderstood, because for the year to count, the limit is 20%. Yes, this year will be lower because it’s a ramp-up.
Martino De Ambroggi, Analyst
Okay. And the long-term question is I know you do not want to comment on your 2026 guidance, but consensus is already in the region of €2.9 billion at €3 billion EBITDA. What are your thoughts about these projections for consensus, both second Bloomberg, FactSet, and I suppose all other providers?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
I think I should respond in the same way I did to your colleague. We will upgrade and review the messaging and the plan in 2025. Right now, we are fully prepared to execute the plan we shared with you. So let's keep moving forward. We are ready to make it happen.
Henning Cosman, Analyst
I think both have become follow-up questions by now, but I'm going to try and ask anyway. The first one on the personalization again. I think last time we discussed that you have about three months of visibility. It's great to see that you've now even adjusted to the top end of the usual range of 17% to 19%. I believe you said 19% for Q3. The question is how do you see that trending into 2024? I think previously you were expecting this to perhaps even go to the bottom end or outside the bottom end of the range, but the dynamics seem to suggest this is going in a more positive direction if anything. So if you could please comment on if you have changed your view as to how you see that develop going forward. The second question I guess is again on the mix. Maybe I can ask you a bit more specifically because we are all, I think, scratching our heads about the strength in '24 when you have the Daytona volumes. Maybe we could start there if you could say. Is it going to be a lot more Daytonas? So will you perhaps continue with the run rate of 30 or so per quarter in 2024 as well and stretch it over a longer period considering now with the SF90 XXs and also the 299 Modificata, the 296 Challenge, it seems there might be a pretty big jump, actually. Antonio, if you allow me, relative to your earlier comment?
Antonio Piccon, CFO
Look, we confirm that for the Daytona, it will be around 34 per quarter. So it's exactly in line with what we said before. When it comes to the percentage of personalization, we expect that this 19% of Q3 to be more in the range of 18%. But maybe you recall I mentioned at Capital Market Day that we were planning around 17%, which was the usual run rate. This is one of the reasons we have been positively surprised this year. We have seen a stronger penetration of personalization and of rich personalization on the current product range. It's difficult to project as of now how this trend will continue for the following month, given the reduced visibility that we have. So that will be the answer to Benedetto’s view.
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
Yes. We can also say now that we are preparing, but we want at the end of the story, it's the client, and we are planning for this, let’s say, 18%.
Henning Cosman, Analyst
Just to clarify, the 30 to 40 Daytonas, that's also your target run-rate for 2024, correct?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
Yes, yes, that was the answer. Yes, 30 to 40 per quarter also next year. Let's begin, but I won't specify the quarter explicitly. However, we will also start the 499P Modificata.
Anthony Dick, Analyst
My first question is on the residual values and pre-owned market, which you've already alluded to. We've seen a correction in the residual values in the past few months, still above pre-COVID levels, and you describe them as healthy, but still trending down a bit. I know this is an important indicator for you. So I'd be interested in having your view on this and how does it affect your volume strategy going into 2024? Obviously not a topic for the limited series of Purosangue, but I was wondering if you could comment, for example, on the demand and order momentum for your more accessible models like the Roma Spider. And then I have a second quick question on the decision to approve the use of cryptocurrency for purchasing Ferrari cars. Could you provide some color on the extent to which you think this can enlarge your customer base? Also as a follow-up, these cryptocurrency investors have not always been perceived as the most stable customers. How do you intend on managing this? Could it create more volatility in your residual values?
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
Regarding cryptocurrency, we do not expect this to create any volatility because at the end of the story, there will be a conversion one-to-one in real time. What I can tell you, and I was discussing with the responsible commercial and marketing officer here, we already started to have some clients. I have to say not only people below 35 years old or the 40s who are placing their own orders with cryptocurrency, but it seems that from the first signals, this has been very well appreciated. I think it was a good move to allow people to enter our family or to use, let me say, the cryptocurrency to pay for a Ferrari because we simplify the process. They also appreciate that we use the cryptocurrency that, by using stake, is sustainable. The proof of stake instead of proof of work enables sustainability. When it comes to the pre-owned market, what I can tell you is two things. One, we have many models, 250 models, let’s consider since the beginning. For us, they are all important, the new and the previous ones. The Roma Spider is new. The pre-owned are previous. They are all important for us, and we need to take more and more care of them. We want to increase the share of the pre-owned cars that go through our official dealers. We want to reduce the cars that go through less reputable dealers. What we are doing with the team here on the commercial side is meant to reach this goal. I also want to share with you that when I visited some dealerships in the last quarters, it's becoming more frequent that the dealers are having people whose MBO, whose yearly KPI are based on the number of pre-owned cars that they keep purchasing. So I think there is even more attention from our dealers and clearly from us because we will always keep the number of cars limited. The new car we make and the previous one have the same dignity, and we must care for them in the same way like all children of the same family.
John Murphy, Analyst
Benedetto, just kind of a follow-up to that in sort of the follow-up to your backlog being so strong. You think about price and mix, there is an opportunity to manage that on an interim basis. But over time, do you think you need a sort of entry-level product like the Roma? It's a beautiful vehicle, but I mean would that be the kind of product that might not make it into the product portfolio in the next three to five years? And then the second question is, as you see the strength in the used market, is there a possibility to start doing personalization in the used market, maybe around wheels and interiors? Obviously, you can't do paint, or maybe you could, that could actually augment revenue and support residuals further in the secondary market.
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
Thank you, John, for the question. Yes, I'll start from the second one, used market. We see this trend also to do personalization in the pre-owned. They may change the rim; they may change something in the interiors, and some clients want to add protective layers on the paint. Last week, I was visiting the location where we apply this protective layer, and one of these cars was a pre-owned car where we were applying a protective layer. The second, I believe that the Roma is a good entry-level model. We don’t need to go lower. The strategy for a company like us that is playing in the ultra-luxury space is such that we needed to make our cars more emotional, unique in terms of performance, and astonishing in design while also keeping sustainability in mind. These are the three wheels that must work in the same way at the same speed: the driving emotion, the performance driven by engineering, and the beauty of the car driven by design. These are the three wheels we will keep considering. I think we already have an entry-level with this Roma.
Nicoletta Russo, Head of Investor Relations
Thank you. Dear speakers, there are no further questions for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to Benedetto Vigna for any closing remarks.
Benedetto Vigna, CEO
So thank you all for your time today, and also for your very insightful questions. Thanks a lot. The strong Q3 result and also the desirability of the brand that we've been debating during this one hour are basically fueling our confidence for the development of the year and looking forward. So thanks a lot again, and I wish you a good afternoon or morning. Thank you so much.
Operator, Operator
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.