Earnings Call Transcript - RHP Q1 2025

Operator, Operator

Welcome to Ryman Hospitality Properties First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Hosting the call today from Ryman Hospitality Properties are Mr. Colin Reed, Executive Chairman; Mr. Mark Fioravanti, President and Chief Executive Officer; Ms. Jennifer Hutcheson, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Patrick Chaffin, Chief Operating Officer; and Mr. Patrick Moore, Chief Executive Officer, Opry Entertainment Group. This call will be available for digital replay. The number is 800-934-3032 with no conference ID required. At this time, all participants have been placed on listen-only mode. It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Ms. Jennifer Hutcheson. Ma'am, you may begin.

Jennifer Hutcheson, CFO

Good morning. Thank you for joining us today. This call may contain forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements about the company's expected financial performance. Any statements we make today that are not statements of historical fact may be deemed to be forward-looking statements. Words such as believes or expects are intended to identify these statements, which may be affected by many factors, including those listed in the company's SEC filings and in today's release. The company's actual results may differ materially from the results we discuss or project today. We will not update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or any other reason. We will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures today. We reconcile each non-GAAP measure to the most comparable GAAP measure in the exhibit to today's release. I'll now turn it over to Colin.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

Thanks, Jen. Good day, everyone, and thanks for joining us. We reported a very strong first quarter, including new first-quarter records on top and bottom line. We continue to grow the number of group room nights on the books for all future years relative to the same time last year. Gross group room nights booked in the first quarter of 2016 and beyond were up double digits year-over-year at a record ADR booked during any first quarter. In addition, our recent investments that have come back online delivered strong growth, while the investments currently underway in our Hospitality segment remain on time and on budget. I suppose our first quarter results could have warranted an increase in our outlook for the rest of the year, but last, we're living and operating in very strange times. Our federal government's objective of rebalancing U.S. trade with the rest of the world is, to say the least, creating uncertainty and stress not just in our economy, but in most major countries throughout the world. Businesses, both big and small, are trying to work out what it means to them, and we are no different. For our meeting planners, this uncertainty has caused a new layer of complexity in their decision-making regarding near-term meetings. As we sit here today, we started to see an uptick in attrition for meetings expected to travel over the next few quarters, as well as a modest pullback in demand for the year bookings. I'll go off script here now. Earlier today, we received our April production numbers, which were somewhat encouraging. I think Patrick will give you some color on this data at the Q&A time. But it is our judgment that it's more likely than not that this caution will continue until some of these clouds of uncertainty disappear, which they will, but at this stage, we just don't know when. Primarily, that is what has caused us to slightly modify some aspects of our guidance that I'll touch on in a minute. The second objective of the federal government is to materially lower the cost of government after years of unprecedented cost increases. Here, we're dealing with what we now have come to know as OEG. When this new department was announced, our expectations were that we could see some pullback in government-related business, which was captured in the low end of our prior guidance range. So far, that has been what has transpired. The good news for us is that we made a decision at the very start of the year to get ahead of any potential pullback. Together with our operator, Marriott, we took an aggressive approach to margin management. In addition, our Hotel Leisure business returned to growth in the first quarter, reversing the trends we saw late in the holiday period of last year. So how do we interpret all of this as we look to the rest of the year? First of all, we think it's prudent to modify our full-year outlook for hospitality RevPAR and total RevPAR to reflect the likelihood that in the year group business will be somewhat weaker than our assumption several months ago and also to reflect the potential for incremental attrition and cancellation activity beyond what we have seen so far this year. Jennifer will take you through the details of these changes in a minute. You'll note we're not lowering our outlook for adjusted EBITDA or adjusted funds from operation. Our strong first-quarter results, along with our unique business model and the proactive efforts we have taken since the beginning of the year to manage our operating model and expense structure, allow us to maintain these ranges. Our business model is particularly important during times like this. The diversification of our customer base, specifically our exposure to Association Group business, mitigates short-term fluctuations during periods of uncertainty. Associations are in the business to meet, and generally, those meetings occur regardless of economic conditions, the global pandemic notwithstanding. In 2025, we happen to have more Association business on the books than we did in 2024. Additionally, the contractual nature of group bookings provides a measure of downside protection through attrition and cancellation fees. Taking the great financial crisis as an example, our profitability decline in 2009 was approximately half that of the broader lodging REIT sector. Our Single Manager Model, uniform hotel asset base, and how we deploy our asset management resources allow us to identify and effect changes to the operating model quickly, efficiently, and on a broad scale across the portfolio. Importantly, our focus on customer means these efficiencies aren't coming at the expense of the customer value proposition. As regards to the Entertainment business, things are in good shape all around. Good first-quarter performance and newly renovated projects back in service, new growth projects identified, and a few new projects that we haven’t discussed publicly are being worked on. Taken together, this means we can continue to focus on the long-term view while remaining nimble and responsive to the short-term market dynamics. For our investors, this means we couldn't be better positioned for the current environment. Having managed this business through 9/11, the great financial crisis, a once-in-a-lifetime flood in Nashville in 2010, and the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic that shuttered our hotels and venues in 2020, I remain as confident as ever in our management team's ability to navigate this period of dislocation and emerge an even stronger company, as we have demonstrated in prior periods of stress. Now, with that, let me turn it over to Mark to discuss the quarter and our positioning in more detail.

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

Thanks, Colin, and good afternoon, everyone. As Colin mentioned, our first-quarter results were terrific. Consolidated revenue increased 11% compared to last year. Consolidated adjusted EBITDAre increased 15%, and AFFO per fully diluted share increased 28%. Our Hospitality segment delivered record first-quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA, driven by year-over-year RevPAR and total RevPAR growth of 10% and 9%, respectively. We estimate the timing of the Easter holiday contributed approximately 220 basis points to the RevPAR growth. ADR of $264 was also a first-quarter record, up nearly 6% compared to last year, with growth in both group and transient segments. Our Entertainment segment generated revenue growth of 34% compared to last year and adjusted EBITDAre of $21 million, an increase of 35%. Both figures for revenue and adjusted EBITDAre were also first-quarter records. While there's been a considerable decline in consumer confidence through the first four months of the year, the consumer segments our businesses serve continue to demonstrate strength in the first quarter. In our hospitality segment, outside the room spending from our group customers was slightly better than we had anticipated, with banquet and AV revenue up nearly 7% due in part to higher catering contribution per group room night despite a mix shift towards association. Associations comprised 28% of group room nights traveled in the first quarter, an increase of nearly 300 basis points from the first quarter of last year, and on average, associations tend to spend less outside the room. The increase in catering contribution for a group room night is encouraging as a reduction in outside-the-room spending can be a leading indicator in a slowing business environment. Capturing demand from premium groups regardless of their segment is a primary objective we're trying to achieve with the growth capital we are deploying throughout the portfolio. Consistent with our expectations, the capital projects that we have come back online are already driving early returns. At Gaylord Rockies, the re-concept with expanded food and beverage outlets in the newly repositioned Grand Lodge delivered 30% growth in outlet revenue per occupied room compared to last year. At Gaylord Palms, with extensive rooms and lobby renovation complete, the first quarter of 2025 marked the second highest adjusted EBITDAre quarter of all time. Our leisure transient customers also performed well in the first quarter, with both demand and ADR increasing 3% year-over-year. This quarter marked the first with year-over-year growth in leisure room nights since the first quarter of 2022. Performance was broad-based across the portfolio, except for Gaylord Opryland, which was impacted by new hotel supply that continues to be absorbed in the Nashville market. Overall, our hotel portfolio meaningfully outperformed the industry in the first quarter, achieving a RevPAR and total RevPAR index relative to our Marriott-defined competitive set of 110% and 155% of fair share. In our Entertainment business, we continue to see our brands resonate with country lifestyle consumers. The first quarter benefited from our recent investments, and overall, our venue saw higher attendance per show, particularly for the Grand Ole Opry, as it celebrates its 100th birthday throughout 2025. First-quarter hotel booking production was strong. Gross group room nights booked for all future years increased 10% year-over-year, with particular strength in bookings for 2026 and 2027, which were up 13% and 35%, respectively, compared to the same time last year for 2025 and 2026. As Colin mentioned, more recently, we've seen some hesitancy among businesses and meeting planners to source near-term meetings, which has impacted in the year-for-the-year group demand, contributing to lower lead volumes and booking activities for 2025 relative to the same time last year for 2024. To date, we've not seen a macro-driven pullback from our leisure transient or entertainment customers. While we have very limited visibility into how or when the current economic uncertainty will be resolved, we believe its impact on group business is a 2025 issue. As the pandemic proved, the group meetings business is resilient and here to stay. As a result, we're maintaining our focus on long-term value creation while managing the short-term dynamics. Since the beginning of the year, our asset management team has been working closely with our operator, Marriott, to identify and implement operating model efficiencies and proactively communicate with our meeting planner customers that are focused on in-the-year, for-the-year execution. Our design and construction have been sensitized in construction timelines to limit disruption and aggressively managing our sourcing and purchasing decisions to mitigate the potential impact of tariffs on our project budgets. Specifically, we've been diversifying our sourcing away from China to other countries where trade negotiations have been more productive and have been expediting procurement for projects currently underway to get our materials and case goods to U.S. ports within the 90-day window. Our Entertainment business development team continues to drive profitable growth recently winning a 10-year contract to manage the 6,800-seat Ascend Amphitheater located in downtown Nashville beginning in 2026. We are thrilled to be able to take on the stewardship of this wonderful venue. Our finance team continues to manage our liquidity position and maturity schedule, which Jennifer will discuss in more detail in a moment. The priorities we laid out last year at our Investor Day have not changed, and we continue to operate our businesses to achieve the long-term financial objectives and capital returns we outlined. As we shared at that time, our plans were based on a stable macro environment of low single-digit GDP growth. If ultimately, we face a more difficult environment, we have unique high-quality assets, a strong book of forward business, and the ability and option to adjust our posture to navigate any near-term challenges. Given our strong first-quarter results, our resilient business model, and the proactive efforts we've been making since the beginning of the year to drive efficiencies, we couldn't be better positioned. With that, I'll turn it over to Jennifer.

Jennifer Hutcheson, CFO

Thanks, Mark. Regarding our outlook for full year 2025, we now expect hospitality RevPAR growth in the range of 1.25% to 3.75% and total RevPAR growth in the range of 0.75% to 3.25%. These revised guidance ranges for RevPAR and total RevPAR growth reflect additional conservatism around government-related group business and in-the-year-for-the-year group demand as Colin and Mark discussed. At the midpoint, our revised RevPAR growth guidance reflects lower group business volumes compared to 2024 and leisure volumes that are essentially flat compared to last year when excluding Gaylord Palms, which was under renovation for much of 2024. The revised midpoint of our total RevPAR growth guidance reflects our lower expectations for rooms revenue and associated outside-the-room spending, as well as conservative assumptions for attrition and cancellation revenue, as attrition and cancellation fees are recognized as revenue only when collected. Often we see a lag between when the business cancels and when we collect and recognize the revenue. Importantly, our proactive efforts to manage our cost structure allow us to reiterate our guidance ranges for segment and consolidated adjusted EBITDAre, AFFO, and AFFO per fully diluted share. For the full year, we still expect consolidated adjusted EBITDAre in the range of $749 million to $801 million, AFFO in the range of $510 million to $555 million, and AFFO per fully diluted share in the range of $8.24 to $8.86. Let me provide some additional color on the expectations for the rest of the year. For our hospitality business in the first half, we anticipate RevPAR growth in the low to mid-single-digit range and total RevPAR growth in the low single-digit range. We expect segment adjusted EBITDAre margin to decline 50 to 130 basis points. Given our actual performance in Q1, this implies at the midpoint of the range for the second quarter, roughly flat year-over-year growth in RevPAR and a negative low single-digit total RevPAR decline. These estimates reflect the impact of the Easter shift between the first and second quarter, meaningfully higher association group mix in the second quarter, and the one-time benefit of Tennessee franchise tax refunds recognized in the second quarter of 2024, which will not repeat in 2025. For the second half of the year, we anticipate RevPAR and total RevPAR growth in the range of negative 1% to up low single digits and segment adjusted EBITDAre margin expansion of flat to up 150 basis points. Where we ultimately end up within the guidance range will be largely dependent on second-half performance. The low end of the range allows for mid to high single-digit demand declines across both our group and transient segments in the second half of the year. For our Entertainment business, our full-year expectations are unchanged. There are a couple of items to note for the second quarter in this segment. First, OEG recognized a $3.4 million Tennessee franchise tax refund in the second quarter of 2024 that did not repeat in 2025. In addition, the primary festival season for Southern Entertainment, our newest investment, occurs during the second quarter, and as such, we expect second quarter entertainment adjusted EBITDAre margin to be more consistent with the first quarter of 2025 than the prior year. Now turning to our balance sheet. We ended the first quarter with $440 million of unrestricted cash on hand and our $700 million revolving credit facility undrawn. OEG's $80 million revolving credit facility had a balance of $17 million outstanding. Taken together, our total available liquidity was approximately $1.2 billion. We retained an additional $47 million of restricted cash available for FF&E and other maintenance projects. At the end of the quarter, our net leverage ratio based on total consolidated net debt to adjusted EBITDAre was 3.9 times. Earlier this week, we closed on a $130 million add-on to OEG's Term Loan B with the use of proceeds to refinance the approximately $128 million Block 21 CMBS loan that was set to mature in January of 2026. We were able to complete this add-on at the same interest rate as OEG's existing Term Loan B facility despite some market choppiness, which speaks to the market's positive reception towards OEG's track record of growth and portfolio of iconic brands. Pro forma for this transaction and as of its closing on April 28, our weighted average maturity is 4.8 years for our debt, and our next debt maturity is May 2027. Finally, let me comment on our anticipated major cash outflows for the year. Regarding our outlook for capital expenditures in 2025, we are lowering our expectations from $400 million to $500 million to $350 million to $450 million for the year based on the latest construction timelines for projects currently underway and the planned rooms renovation at Gaylord Texan, which we now intend to start in July. At this time, the scope of our multi-year capital deployment program remains unchanged, as we continue to believe that these enhancements are critical to long-term value creation for our customers and our shareholders. That said, the discrete nature of these projects gives us flexibility to adjust our plans with evolving macro conditions. Regarding our dividend, it remains our intention to continue paying 100% of our REIT taxable income through dividends. And with that, Leo, let's open it up for questions.

Operator, Operator

Certainly. We'll take our first question from Chris Woronka of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Chris Woronka, Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everyone and congratulations on a very nice quarter. I was hoping to kind of, at first, I understand maybe Patrick had some data points about April production. But really just trying to delineate what may be short-term, how short-term in nature is the hesitancy that you're seeing because it sounds like you're still seeing very good momentum for the out year. So what allows this to stay to kind of a 2025 issue, if that makes sense.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

I would like to make an observation. Chris, this team has navigated through volatile periods numerous times before, and we believe this situation is no different. Looking ahead, the remainder of this year, especially next year and the one after, our business outlook is very promising. Patrick, would you like to provide Chris and the others listening with an update on our current status?

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

Yes, absolutely. Good morning, Chris. It's good to hear from you. To answer your question, obviously, no one knows for sure how long this will last. There's a lot of uncertainty, and a lot of groups are hesitant and extending their booking window a little bit as a result, and we're seeing that. But I would tell you that we just got our April production numbers, as Colin alluded to. What I saw in there that was encouraging to me is that lead volumes at the end of March were down 50% for in-the-year, for the-year. At the end of April, they were only down 8%. So we saw a marked improvement just in the lead volumes for the year. Our lead volumes for 2026, 2027 and our bookings continue to be very encouraging. So we don't see any kind of weakness there. It's really thus far restricted to the in-the-year, for-the-year. Regarding bookings, we've been essentially flat in what we're booking in terms of room nights year-over-year, both year-to-date and in the month of April, but our rate has been very solid. We look at this and say, yes, there are some out there who are panicking and maybe dropping rates. From our perspective, we've seen flat demand in terms of room nights, and we've been able to continue driving rates. Both of those are encouraging signs that we've seen a little bit of moderation in the decline in lead volumes that was pretty marked in March and have softened a bit and are moving in the right direction now. We continue to do a great job on the rate side.

Chris Woronka, Analyst

And gentle to that, our capital deployment program is we're not modifying or changing that because we feel very good about the long-term. And maybe one of you, either Mark or Patrick, can talk a little bit about revenue on the books T+1, T+2, which, again, is extraordinarily encouraging.

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

Yes. For 2026 and 2027, they remain very strong and have improved further. In both years, room bookings have increased by low to mid-single digits. Revenue is up by 9% and 13% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, primarily driven by rate increases. This premium remains consistent as the travel date approaches. We are very optimistic about our positioning for both years. Additionally, regarding 2025, I believe a unique aspect of the current situation is that it could change rapidly with just a few trade deals or a few impactful comments, leading to significant shifts.

Chris Woronka, Analyst

Yes, I agree. I appreciate all those data points; they sound quite encouraging. If I could sneak in a quick follow-up regarding costs, you mentioned an increase in RevPAR guidance by 1 point and total RevPAR by 1 point, yet the EBITDA remains unchanged. Could you provide an example or two of what the costs are, or is it simply the conservatism of the initial guidance that allows you to maintain that range despite potentially lower RevPAR?

Patrick Chaffin, COO

Hey, Chris, this is Patrick again. I would tell you from the first week of January, we started getting pretty aggressive from a cost perspective just because we knew that there was a potential for some turbulence this year. We currently have roughly $28 million to $30 million of profit improvement plans already loaded into our forecast and have had the properties acting on those and executing against them essentially since the first week of January. We didn't waste any time. We wanted to get ahead of it. Profit improvement plans are annualized, so the more that you can capture early on, the better off you are. This also allows us to ensure that the margin improvements that we've enacted are minimizing any impact to customers or our employees. We acted early, acted quickly, and as a result, we've safeguarded from what we can see right now. We've done a pretty good job of safeguarding our bottom line and thus, our guidance.

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

I was just going to say, Chris, while wages were up in the first quarter, as you would expect, our wage margin improved 40 basis points. The operating teams and Patrick's team have done a very good job at just finding ways to be more efficient. Our hours per occupied room improved 60 basis points. They're undertaking some very specific activities concerning changes to the operating model, but also with a focus on the details and disciplined management of things like labor.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

That's an important observation, Mark. What I wanted to express is somewhat related. When we mention $20 million to $30 million, it does sound significant, and indeed it is. However, considering our hotel operations' cost structure, we incur approximately $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion in various expenses annually. Our hotel revenue is around $2 billion, and we maintain an EBITDA margin. Our team, along with Marriott, is effectively managing costs during this unpredictable period.

Chris Woronka, Analyst

Okay. Super helpful. I appreciate all the color, guys. Thanks.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is coming from Jack Armstrong of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Jack Armstrong, Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Can you elaborate a little bit more on the strategy behind the acquisition of the majority interest in Southern Entertainment? Are there other similar types of opportunities in your evaluating market to grow over the year?

Patrick Moore, CEO, OEG

Yes. Thank you. This is Patrick Moore. Southern Entertainment represents a fascinating opportunity for us to increase the overall surface area of the opportunity set for live venues and live entertainment. The operators of Southern Entertainment manage some of the best and most successful long-standing country music festivals in the country. As a consequence, we're able to both increase and circulate our fans across all of our venues. Secondly, there's a nice flywheel effect with artists; many of the artists that play the Opry or the Ryman or Austin City Limits also perform at those country music festivals. This business segment offers us the opportunity to look at other venues in the festival space, a more fungible sector of the live entertainment space than iconic venues like the Ryman or ACL.

Jack Armstrong, Analyst

Great. That's really helpful. As you're continuing to expand OEG, pretty fantastic growth rate in Q1 with the addition of Southern Entertainment. Are you starting to think more about the point where you're going to have to spin out at least a portion of OEG given that it's probably approaching the bad income threshold to where you might lose your REIT status? Or is that still a little bit further out given the macroeconomic uncertainty?

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

No, we have a lot of runway related to the 75% income test for the asset test, given the business scale of our hotel business. We have plenty of runway. We'll make the decision to separate this business when it makes the most sense for the business and for shareholders and when the market is receptive to it.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

Yes. And Jack, unlike others in the hotel business, we've got a hotel business that's growing rapidly. So, the runway is naturally getting wider.

Operator, Operator

We'll move next to Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Duane Pfennigwerth, Analyst

Thanks. I wanted to ask you about the typical composition of in-the-year for-the-year demand more broadly. I don't know if there's such a thing as a typical year anymore or a normal year, but if you enter a year at 50% occupied and end the year at 70%, what is the composition of that 20 points of occupancy that you pick up in the year? And how might that composition look different this year?

Patrick Chaffin, COO

Yes. The remaining business that we pick up in the year-for-the-year is predominantly leisure. We're roughly 75% group, 25% leisure, typically all of which books within a 30 to 90-day window. On the group side, on average, it's corporate business. Associations are booking much further out, as are government-type groups that typically book further out. So, it's mainly corporate on the group side and then leisure.

Duane Pfennigwerth, Analyst

Thank you. One question we're getting from clients is, can you speak to the implied attrition cancellation embedded in the guidance for the rest of the year?

Jennifer Hutcheson, CFO

Regarding the revenue recognition on attrition and cancellation, I noted the fact that we recognize that when we collect it. You won't naturally assume that it's in the quarter that you experienced attrition and cancellation. I had comments about the expectations and the assumptions at the midpoint of our guidance in terms of year-over-year demand increases. Specifically, at the low end, it does factor in a fair amount of conservatism concerning the overall room nights that could be absorbed in the form of attrition and cancellation at the low end when normalizing for the fact that we had the Palms rooms out of service in 2024.

Duane Pfennigwerth, Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

Excellent.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is coming from Smedes Rose of Citi. Your line is open.

Smedes Rose, Analyst

Hi, thank you. I just wanted to ask a little bit more. You spoke in your opening remarks about the cancellations that you're seeing in in-the-year-for-the-year; it sounds like some of that is some government business that the association business is hanging there. Could you talk a little bit more about the composition of who's dropping out? And if you're seeing it in any one property, maybe even more than another? Or is it sort of equal throughout the portfolio?

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

Take it, Patrick.

Patrick Chaffin, COO

Hey Smedes, it's Patrick. Good to hear from you. Yes, it's dominated by the government side. There's always cancellations. Every single year has cancellations. But if there's any kind of marked increase right now, it's just on the government side. It is not relegated to one property in particular. So, it's across the portfolio, and it's mostly on the government side; everything else is pretty much within the norm of what we typically see in a year.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

Patrick, comment a little about when we were finalizing our budgets with Marriott in January. We took into consideration this whole rhetoric about cutting government waste and abuse, and anticipated a little bit of a pullback here in our planning.

Patrick Chaffin, COO

Yes, that's part of the reason that we are able to maintain our adjusted EBITDA range that we provided for the guidance side because we anticipated it. As we were talking about earlier, we immediately went into action on the profit improvement plan to provide ourselves a little bit of insulation should it happen. As it started to happen, we feel that we've done the right actions to mitigate that thus far. It's anybody's guess where it goes from here. We did see some encouraging information in our April production both in terms of lead volume as well as in-the-year-for-the-year bookings.

Smedes Rose, Analyst

Thank you. I wanted to ask for updates on the impact, whether positive, negative, or neutral, from the opening of Clavis, which is scheduled for later this month. Previously, you mentioned that the group system is broadening and more people are entering the Gaylord system. Is that still happening, or have there been any changes due to the uncertainty in the macro environment?

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

You want to take?

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

Yes. As we've reported before, we have seen business originating out of Pacific into the rest of the portfolio. It's hard for us to get into too much detail because we can't see what their inventory looks like. But we watch very carefully to identify any areas of our business where we're seeing a negative impact on forward bookings. Thus far, we haven't seen anything, whether it's a slowdown or erosion of bookings. The positive side is that the rooms we've seen rotate into our part of the portfolio have been at significantly higher rates. They're about 9% higher from a rate perspective than our other rotational business that doesn't originate out of California.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

But as it opens over the next two, three, or four months from now, we'll be microscope on it and understand its impact.

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

Yes. Historically, if you look at previous openings, the flywheel effect of having a new property for the rest of the portfolio actually gains momentum as people experience new customers going into that new hotel and experience the Gaylord brand.

Smedes Rose, Analyst

Thank you.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

Thanks, Smedes.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is coming from Aryeh Klein of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Aryeh Klein, Analyst

Thank you. I was hoping you could provide a little more color on the end-of-year-for-the-year expectations within the guidance, and maybe how that changed from what you thought would look like previously? From a renovation disruption standpoint, yes, I think you're expecting 300 basis points for the year. What was that in Q1? And what does that look like for the rest of the year? Thank you.

Jennifer Hutcheson, CFO

The biggest indication of our change in assumptions to point to is the lowering of the range on the top line. RevPAR and total RevPAR declined in the midpoint by 100 basis points driven really by the lower in-the-year-for-the-year booking assumptions. The math around that is really when you think about coming into the year with 50 points of occupancy, some of the remainder coming from leisure and in-the-year-for-the-year corporate book. Doing the math around that is our outlook for the demand component for the rest of the year reflects lower expectations for rooms revenue and associated outside-the-room spending, as well as conservative assumptions for attrition and cancellation revenue.

Aryeh Klein, Analyst

Thanks. You mentioned potentially pulling back on some projects depending on the macro. Is that something you're currently evaluating? Or would you need to see the macro materially weaken there? Some of the planned projects are pretty significant in scope. Is there any material impact on cost you're anticipating from tariffs? Thanks.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

This is Colin. There is no explicit formula here. This is a very dynamic moment in time as we think about bookings. When we did our earnings scripts and releases, it was based on everything that we've seen through to the end of March. That was hypothesis. The wrinkle is what we've just experienced in April—that was literally hot off the press last night first thing this morning. As Patrick articulated, we saw at the end of March, lead volumes for in-the-year-for-the-year declined considerably. But then things changed relatively positively in Asia. How this translates into May and June, we will understand that as we get there. Our assumptions, at this stage, given what Mark talked about, consumers pulling back a bit, we think it's prudent to shave the assumption for in-the-year-for-the-year business. If we had seen a 50% decline in lead volumes in April and room nights booked half of what we booked in April for the in-the-year-for-the-year, I think we would be talking about this with a little more aggression. That is not what we're seeing currently. Pat, do you want to add that?

Patrick Chaffin, COO

Yes. I would say, on the tariff question, there are three major projects that we're currently working on. The space expansion at Opryland, the sports bar and event salon construction at Opryland, and then the Texan rooms renovation. The rooms renovation kicks off here in a couple of months. From a tariff perspective, we were able to get all the materials necessary for that renovation on the ground within the 90-day extension around tariffs. We're feeling very good that our design and construction team did an excellent job of sourcing to countries where we feel there will be trade deals. We expect to have the majority of materials on the ground before that 90-day window expires. The only area where we really have any exposure right now from a tariff perspective is on steel for the space expansion at Opryland and the sports bar, but they're doing a great job of getting that on the ground quickly and also seeking alternatives. Even then, it is a minimal impact on the overall project budget. Our design and construction team has managed that effectively, and we're proud of it. I think we all are, and we think we've minimized the impact. We are continuing forward for 2026 with designing everything that could potentially go into construction, and we will watch the rest of this year very carefully to decide whether or not to shelf those designs and pull back on some of those projects. But right now, we're knee-deep in some of the projects that are already underway and proceeding with them. For smaller projects, we're pulling back and asking whether they are a high priority and shelving them until we get greater visibility.

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

The only thing I would add is that if we see a material decline in the year-for-the-year and we see occupancy opening up, we may very well accelerate things like room renovations or ballroom renovations to do those things when we have the least amount of disruption.

Patrick Chaffin, COO

Just like we did in COVID.

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

Right? We have availability, so let's get it done. It really depends on the project and how demand influences how we think about it.

Aryeh Klein, Analyst

Great. Thanks for all the color. Appreciate it.

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

Thanks, Aryeh.

Operator, Operator

Our next question is coming from Shaun Kelley of Bank of America. Your line is open.

Shaun Kelley, Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. First, I just wanted to go back to some of the government stuff. Could you remind us across the portfolio, what's government exposure across both normal segments and association, if that's relevant? I think there's been a lot of questions we've had on the national. Could you help us break down there a little bit in terms of exposures and how you think that property weathers the efficiency drive in D.C. based on what you're seeing right now?

Patrick Chaffin, COO

Yes. We looked at the entire remainder of the year, and we do not have a significant amount of government business. We've had a few cancellations, but looking across the remainder of the year, we have stress tested our model and we assumed, what if every single one of those government groups canceled? Would we be okay from an adjusted EBITDA guidance perspective? We feel very comfortable that we can weather the storm pretty well because our government exposure is not massive. Typically, it is higher at Gaylord National, but I would say there were some groups that were moving through the entire portfolio. So it evened out, and it's not just relegated to national. Again, from a stress testing perspective, it's not a massive amount. If we were to lose all of that business, we feel pretty good that we're still within the adjusted EBITDA range.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

Just Patrick, our room nights on the books for national are very healthy this year.

Patrick Chaffin, COO

They are very. Gaylord National has continued to be on an upward trajectory over the past three or four years since we reopened it after COVID, and it is in a really strong position for this year.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

Yeah.

Shaun Kelley, Analyst

Perfect. Then second question, and this is sort of the bigger picture strategy point. During COVID, you all leaned in creatively when you saw a market share opportunity. Given that every downturn is a little different—and that was a lot of cancellation rebook activity, but an environment no one could control—do you think this is a little more of a classic pullback? Would the general approach be a little bit on the enforcement side of cancellation fees? How do you kind of strike the right balance? Your approach during COVID had merits to it.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

Mark and Patrick and I earlier this week met with the CEO of Marriott here in our offices in Nashville, and we had a very open discussion about the need to be on the front foot here. We need to figure out how we take advantage of this, as when you get stress and distress, this is a period of opportunity. We discussed potentially recruiting high-quality salespeople in this period of time. It's something that's top of mind for our asset management team led by Patrick. I know, Mark, and I feel strongly the same way, and it's something that we're going to continue to work on here. The difference between what we're experiencing today versus what we experienced in COVID, as Mark touched on, is that this thing could change dramatically with a tweet or two, or we could secure a trade deal with China. We're really thinking about how we take advantage of this, but who knows how long it lasts?

Mark Fioravanti, President & CEO

Sean, every group is unique, and every situation is unique. But to your point, this is much more classically like a recession than COVID, where there was a lot more, instead of collecting fees or having the inability to collect fees because of force majeure rebooking rooms. I think you'll see us more aggressively collecting fees here, although we'll always work with our best customers to create a business solution that works for everybody involved.

Patrick Chaffin, COO

Based on the cancellations we've incurred so far, I'm very encouraged by the team’s ability to collect the outstanding collection fees due to us. To Colin's point, we view every crisis as an opportunity to exploit and create new market share. We spent about five hours last week with the Marriott above property team specific to our portfolio going through and looking at short-term strategies, with a great focus on analytics of group behavior over the past few years and what's specifically going on right now. We're diving in to say, how do we target the sales team to really exploit some of these short-term opportunities? We take every crisis opportunity, and this is no different.

Jennifer Hutcheson, CFO

The fact that we're dealing with one operator in this case, you keep hearing us talk about that we're working directly with Marriott allows us to be as nimble as anybody, perhaps more so, and be able to consistently and quickly apply our approach.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

The irony was when Mark and I were doing road shows back when we were converting this company from a C to a REIT, we were told by the REIT mafia that this was actually a negative that we should have broad distribution of managers. I think it's crazy. We have such an advantage by dealing with one manager at this moment. How we deal with sales, how we deal with costs—there is such an advantage right now.

Shaun Kelley, Analyst

Thank you so much.

Colin Reed, Executive Chairman

Leo, I think that's it. We appreciate everybody being with us today. These are interesting times we're living in. I feel our team has its finger on the pulse, and if you have any further questions, you know how to get over to Jen and her IR team or Mark. Thank you, everyone, and have a good day.

Operator, Operator

This does conclude today's Ryman Hospitality Properties first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. Everyone, have a great day.