Earnings Call Transcript
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SBSW)
Earnings Call Transcript - SBSW Q4 2025
Richard Stewart, CEO
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome. I think it's a real pleasure to have you with us today as we present our operating and financial results for 2025. So thank you very much for joining us today. I think just in terms of the agenda that we've got, I will start off with a few high-level salient points. Then we'll move into the Performance Excellence, which will be presented by a number of the team. We'll then move into growth and just touch briefly on the resources, the mineral resources and reserves that we've recently published. Charl will take us through the financial performance and Ken to touch on how we're interpreting these very volatile markets we're seeing and a little bit of the outlook in that regard before I wrap up with the way forward. I think there are several forward-looking statements in the document. So I would urge you to please just take note of the safe harbor statement. Thank you. I think when we reflect on December 1, 2025, certainly during the latter half of the year, it was at a time of significant change at Sibanye. We, of course, had the leadership transition. And with that, we also undertook a refresh of our strategy. This was something that we presented to the market at the end of January. But for anybody who was not able to make that, if I could try to summarize our strategic refresh in one word, it would be simplification. Specifically, what we're really focusing on in the short term is around maximizing and driving our operating margins. We're doing that through a keen focus on operational excellence and simplifying the operating model that we have and then further simplification through our portfolio such that we're focusing on the highest return assets, of course, cash-generative assets and ensuring an appropriate management focus in that regard. This is all coupled with a very disciplined capital allocation framework which we shared as being roughly 1/3 towards shareholder returns, 1/3 towards reducing our gross debt and 1/3 towards growth. And again, Charl will unpack that in a little bit more detail. In terms of growth, we certainly see the best value at the moment for us in terms of returns as being internal in terms of the resource value that we have. We have a significant resource base, particularly in South Africa, our PGM operations and organic growth will be our immediate focus. But we did also share a value creation framework that we have put together to help us assess any external growth opportunities moving forward. In addition to the strategic refresh, I think there were some quite key decisions that we needed to make towards the end of last year, especially amongst several of our operations. One of the big ones was the start-up of the Keliber lithium project in Finland. That is a greenfield project that we have built and given the volatility in the lithium market, we had to decide how best to proceed with that project. And I think very pleasingly, towards the end of last year, together with our partners, Finnish Minerals Group, came to a way forward, which really considers a staged ramp-up of the Keliber project. And we'll share a bit more of those details with you in the presentation, but it really is an approach that mitigates some of the risk of the market while allowing us a lot of strategic optionality around the project. And we will unpack that for you in the coming slides. The second big decision we had to make was around Kloof. We did share with the market that early on in the year, due to increased risk of seismicity, we deemed to have an unacceptable safety risk, we ceased mining of quite a few of the deeper-level areas at Kloof. This had a material impact not only on the output from the Kloof operations but also on the future of that operation. Towards the end of last year, we decided that Kloof would continue to operate on a year-by-year basis, assessing the profitability each year as we proceed. So very dependent on sustained higher gold prices. There were several priority projects that we have been evaluating during the year, and we will be making financial investment decisions on during the course of this year. There was also some overhang from previous or legacy issues. We had to address the Appian court case. We came to a settlement there in November, ultimately a settlement payment of $215 million. We also had the South African gold wage negotiations that had been continuing from about the middle of the year. I think credit to the team, we successfully settled that also towards the end of the year. Again, credit to all stakeholders, I think a very good outcome considering the environment we're currently operating in. But I share this because it was a rather busy and transformational second half of the year with lots of decisions being made in terms of how we will continue going forward. That has also reflected in our finances, which are complex. A lot of noise. However, hopefully, certainly the way I feel and, hopefully, you can see that what this has done is simplified our operations going forward. It's already simplified where our focus needs to be, and I think it's set up a solid operational base, which we have launched into 2026. I look forward to that simplification also starting to feature in the financial numbers as you ultimately simplify the total portfolio. Looking at our operational output, safety, and I'll unpack safety in a bit more detail in the coming slide. I'm very pleased with the continuous improvements that we've seen in many of our indicators, both lagging and leading indicators. We have seen some of our best numbers ever, which is pleasing in terms of the progress that we've made over the years, but our focus on eliminating fatalities remains our absolute priority as a company. I give full credit to many of our operational teams. As I said, this was a busy period they delivered solidly across most of our business. All of our operations came in largely within guidance, recognizing we did have to revise guidance at the gold operations because of the Kloof decision I mentioned earlier. Coming within guidance or better than guidance across the board was very pleasing and full credit to our teams in that regard. We also made some great strides on our sustainability strategy across many aspects, including water, including the social investments in South Africa. But one that really is a bit of a standout is our positioning regarding our renewable energy where I think we really are now positioned as a leader in renewable energy in South African mining. That is not only going to have a material impact on our carbon footprint but also significant commercial benefit. Just during the year-to-date on a small portion of the projects we've commissioned, we've already achieved close to ZAR 100 million worth of savings and avoided over 300,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide. We see that going up to close to ZAR 1 billion worth of savings over the coming years. Like I mentioned, I think with much of the decisions and complexity we had in the business over the second half of the year, that does reflect in our numbers. Looking through those numbers, I guess, sort of really through to the core financials I think what we really see is stability, a real turnaround. A solid base of which to build into 2026. We achieved the highest EBITDA that we have in 3 years at just under ZAR 38 billion or just over $2 billion to see headline earnings per share up by just under 300%. I think is very pleasing, particularly given most of that came during the second half of the year. Our balance sheet remains strong. Our total net debt to adjusted EBITDA has declined to below 0.6x, so very comfortably within covenant limits. We shared during our strategy renewed focus on gross debt to ensure stability through a cycle is where our focus will be going forward. Overall, with a good operational output, strong financial stability underpinned, we as a company and the Board are very comfortable declaring a dividend of ZAR 131 cents per share. This equates to roughly a 2% dividend yield, reflecting largely just the earnings over the second half of the year. This dividend declaration is at the top end of our dividend policy. So very glad to be back into dividend-paying territory. As we look at performance excellence, we shared at the end of January during our strategic update that our strategy is based on 4 pillars. Simplification, I've mentioned already, simplification of how we operate, driving accountability, simplification of our portfolio, getting our focus on capital allocation in the right place. The second pillar was performance excellence. Performance excellence is holistic improvement. Within there, we have safe production, operational excellence, which I think will be well understood by many. Resource optimization, how best we can extract our resources, maximizing long-term economic value, and embedding sustainability in the way we operate. For us, sustainability is about people, the planet, and prosperity for both. I will specifically touch today on safe production and then hand over to the 2 COOs, Richard and Charles, to look at operational excellence and Melanie in sustainability. Touching on on-site production, it's been extremely pleasing to see the trend we've seen since 2021, particularly since 2021 because that's when we started our fatal elimination strategy. Since then, we've seen over 40% reduction in serious injuries. The reason we look at serious injuries is that they are often associated with high energy incidents. So high energy incidents could result in either fatal incidents or certainly life-changing incidents. We've also seen a similar pleasing decline in terms of the high potential incidents that we measure. Some of those are associated with injury somewhat, but it certainly gives us a good data point to understand whether or not we are decreasing risk within our operations. We continue to benchmark ourselves against ICMM and peers, many of whom operate in very different environments. Talking about safety trends is tough. As pleasing as it is to look in the rearview mirror, we understand that we're doing the right things to reduce risk. As a management team, we recognize that, unfortunately, is very cold comfort to family and friends of colleagues we have lost on our operations. Tragedy—during 2025, we did experience 6 fatal incidents across our operations. In this regard, I would like to extend our heartfelt condolences on behalf of the management team and the Board to the family and friends of Alberto Xavier, Onkazi Jozana, Fonso Matsolo, Brian Hanson, Asituey Ramaila, and Klaas Onkosana. Eliminating fatal incidents is our #1 priority. Our focus moving into 2026 remains on how we can effectively embed our fatal elimination strategy. The strategy fundamentally hangs on 3 pillars of critical controls, management routines, and life-saving behaviors. These are the 3 key pillars to mitigate risk within our operations. The focus for 2026 is how we can enhance compliance and also transform culture, which will drive behavior. We've seen historically within the mining industry that compliance has driven through force and instruction. We recognize the opportunity to change that culture and drive compliance through a culture of accountability and care. We truly believe we will eliminate fatal incidents from our operations. Thank you very much. I will hand over to Richard Cox to take us through the South African operations. Over to you, Richard. Thank you.
Richard Cox, COO
Thanks, Rich. Hello, everyone. As Chief Operating Officer of our South African operations, my focus is on delivering performance excellence through safe production, operational efficiency, and holistic improvement. Our strategy ensures we consistently improve delivery across our portfolio. Let's take a look into our 2025 results for the South African business. Turning to our SA PGM operations, we've maintained consistent delivery, meeting or exceeding guidance each year since 2017. For 2025, total 4E PGM production reached 1.8 million ounces including attributable production from Mimosa at 117,000 ounces and third-party purchase of concentrate at 73,000 ounces, all aggregated aligning with our 1.75 billion to 1.85 million ounce guidance and stable year-on-year. Since the Lonmin acquisition in 2019, production has remained steady between 1.73 million and 1.83 million ounces annually, reflecting our operational resilience and ongoing progress towards the second quartile of the industry cost curve. Breaking it down, underground production increased 2% to over 1.6 million ounces supported by improvements at Rustenburg's mechanized Bathopele shaft and more stable output compared to 2024's disruptions at Siphumelele and Kroondal operations. In Marikana, output was affected by safety-related stoppages at the high-performing safety shaft, but this was partially offset by K4's ramp-up where production rose 41% to almost 100,000 ounces, contributing to Marikana's improved cost position. Surface production was lower by 29% at 108,000 ounces influenced by higher first quarter rainfall and the commencement to transition feed resources, such as Rustenburg's Waterval West TSF and Marikana's ETD1 to ETD2 tailings facilities. We are evaluating long-term service opportunities at Rustenburg to support the sustainability of the surface business. Purchase of concentrate volumes were reduced by 24% in line with contractual terms. We remain focused on cost discipline. Operating costs increased by just 7.3% in absolute terms. All-in sustaining costs rose 10% to just over ZAR 24,000 per 40-ounce, which was within our ZAR 23,500 to ZAR 24,500 an ounce target supported by byproduct credits of ZAR 11.1 billion. These credits were enhanced by stronger ruthenium and iridium contributions, helping offset the 261% increase in royalties to ZAR 765 million from higher prices and a 12% rise in sustaining capital to ZAR 2.9 billion for key mining equipment and precious metal refinery infrastructure. Project capital was lower by 16% at ZAR 675 million, which was below guidance due to completed Rustenburg initiatives and deferred Marikana expenditures. Total CapEx came in at ZAR 5.9 billion, under our ZAR 6.5 billion estimate. This foundation we are creating enables us to capitalize on stronger PGM prices. The 2025 average 4E basket price increased 28% to over ZAR 31,000 per ounce, driving adjusted EBITDA up 125% to ZAR 16.7 billion. Early 2026 prices have risen 43% to over ZAR 44,000 per ounce as shown in the chart, following an even higher and brief January adjustment. With supported fundamentals, we anticipate potential for additional earnings and cash flow improvements in 2026. We continue investing through the cycle in low risk, low capital intensive projects with quick paybacks, all supporting stable, high-performing operations with optionality to extend our portfolio. Overall, our SA PGM operations are very well positioned to benefit long term and also from the current market upside. This slide illustrates our advancement on the PGM cost curve and based upon end December 2025 data and highlights our positioning relative to peers. Starting on the right, Marikana's total cost, including CapEx has been influenced by K4's project build-up phase. As K4 approaches steady state, we're seeing a shift towards lower costs. This combined Rustenburg and Kroondal position has moved slightly higher due to the Kroondal transition to toll treatment which introduces processing costs; however, enhances profitability through improved revenue and margins. While we are actually below the 50th percentile now, our low capital intensity brownfields projects are poised to further strengthen competitiveness against peers. Our progression from the fourth to the second quarter reflects the value of our strategic investments in building a long-term sustainable advantage in this business. Now to our gold operations. These mature assets are highly geared to gold prices and continue to generate strong cash flows in the current supportive price environment. Total production, including DRDGOLD was lower by 10% at 19.7 tonnes. Underground production reduced by 8%, primarily due to operational challenges at our Kloof operations, including seismicity and infrastructure constraints, while surface production was down 16% influenced by lower yields as we transitioned from higher grade to lower-grade tailings and low-grade third-party sources. A 39% increase in the gold price helped mitigate this impact. The all-in sustaining cost increased 15% to ZAR 1.4 million per kilogram, with 14% lower gold sold. At our Kloof operations, persistent challenges, including a shaft incident at our Manana 7 shaft in May of '25 infrastructure age showing in ventilation pass and ore pass systems, logistics constraints, and seismic risk in high-grade isolated blocks of ground or IBGs resulted in production lower by 31% year-on-year at 3,374 kilograms. This prompted the rebasing of the plan and a life of mine adjustments to 1 year. Safety remains our #1 priority. We did relocate a number of Kloof teams from higher-risk IBGs to Driefontein operations. Subsequently, post a comprehensive review process, we removed those areas of Kloof operations from a long-term plan to align with our risk tolerance. As said, the sustained rise in the rand gold price over the period boosted adjusted EBITDA of 115% to ZAR 12.5 billion, representing 33% of group EBITDA and surpassing 2020's record. Excluding DRDGOLD, EBITDA increased 111% to ZAR 6.1 billion on an average price of ZAR 1.8 million per kilogram. For the whole gold business, we are pleased to have concluded a 3-year wage agreement with labor, which provides a degree of cost certainty moving forward. There is a lot of work underway in reporting our strategic transitioning of the SA gold business, ensuring long-term sustainability. Our investment in DRDGOLD is a prime example, providing long-life, high-margin surface gold exposure that is cash generative. We are focusing on our higher-margin shallow gold mining business with Burnstone's feasibility study underway and final investment decision being targeted for the first half of 2026. The Burnstone project exemplifies this strategic shift. We are also focusing on high-margin shallow gold mining, where we have added over 1 million ounces in reserves at Cooke surface, Burnstone, attributable DRD, and Beatrix operations. Turning to the charts, the gearing and all-in sustaining cost margin chart illustrates how rising prices are opening up expanding margins. The average gold price received is planning steadily against controlled all-in sustaining costs. The adjusted free cash flow bar chart highlights the magnitude and rapid cash flow turnaround moving from negative in 2024 to positive and significant in 2025. Looking forward, our core operations will continue to drive performance excellence, and we're excited about the prospects in our current portfolio. For 2026, the outlook is positive. Spot prices are up 9% year-to-date to over ZAR 2.5 million per kilogram and 20% above second half 2025 levels—all boding well for another successful year with potential earnings and cash flow growth. I'll now hand over to Charles.
Charles Carter, COO
Thank you, Richard. The U.S. PGM operations have had a solid year with production of 284,000 3E ounces and an all-in sustaining cost of $1,203 an ounce beating our guidance, combined with a strongly improving safety performance into year-end. The significant downsizing in late 2024, while turning around the cash bleed at the time in the context of depressed prices, also sowed the seeds of improved mining productivities and cost efficiencies that we have built on through the year under review. Certainly, with improved PGM prices later in the year, we returned to profitability. When you overlay Section 45x benefits, you have a competent outcome. During this period of getting our operating performance right, albeit at lower volumes, the team led by Kevin Robertson has also done significant work in setting up the Montana operations for long-term success. You have seen in the earlier global cost curve that we are now sitting in the middle of the pack and have been for 2 consecutive quarters. Our drive towards $1,000 an ounce is aimed at being a lowest quartile PGM producer on a sustainable basis through price cycles. In the Montana operations, we have a legacy of semi-mechanized mining with narrow headings and small stopes using a range of small equipment such as 2-yard LHDs and CMAC bolting, which ultimately constrains you with lower tonnes per cycle and a higher cost per ounce, notwithstanding the fact that our miners are incredibly good at what they do and bring significant skills and experience to the process. Through last year, we trialed mechanized bolting with success, and we are now rolling out a significant transformation program, which will see amongst many changes the stepwise introduction of mechanized equipment, a progressive increase in heading size in advance with associated workforce and supervisory upskilling, and a shift from legacy captive stoping to task mining. The benefits of these changes really start bearing fruit in 2027 because we have a phased introduction of new equipment and changes to where practices running in parallel with our established approach. Where this takes us in the next 18 months is a fully mechanized and scaled operation with higher productivities and lower costs, improved safety and wellness benefits and a business that we believe will be resilient through price cycles. We're starting these change interventions at Stillwater East and then moving to East Boulder, and once we know that we can deliver around $1,000 an ounce, we will consider bringing back toward West, although this will require infrastructure upgrades and a range of capital spend, which means that we have that decision point further down the road, and it will neatly based on an extensive feasibility study. If I turn to the U.S.-based recycling business, 2025 has also been a busy year for us. We bedded down and integrated the Reldan acquisition and late last year added the Metallix acquisition. Together with our Columbus AutoCAD recycling business, we believe that we have a compelling PGM and precious metals recycling platform that has low capital intensity and can provide stable margins through price cycles. The team led by Grant Stuart is moving very quickly to integrate the management teams and optimize which feeds go to which site while leveraging a single sourcing and sales platform that now has a very wide reach both in the Americas, but also into Asia and elsewhere. As investors and analysts will appreciate, there is significant change underway in global metals recycling where we are seeing consolidation, vertical integration, and indeed, some companies in various parts of the value chain going to the wall. Within the significant shifts underway, I think we are well-positioned. We know what our value proposition is, the niches we play in, and which differentiate us against some of our very large competitors. We now have the ability to organically grow an integrated recycling platform without needing to necessarily chase new acquisitions. Our Century zinc retreatment business in Australia has also had a very good year from a stellar safety performance through to increased production of 101 kilotonnes of payable metal and a 17% decrease in all-in sustaining costs to $1,920 a tonne, which exceeded guidance. This team is very ably led by Barry Harris, and I want to thank Robert Van Niekerk, who was the executive lead through the last couple of years for a seamless handover. The team has been working on 2 feasibility studies, FOS 1 and Mount Lyell. The Mount Lyell feasibility study is currently under assurance review and evaluation. We expect to have a close-out review in early May. The FOS 1 study is expected to be completed by the end of March with Assurance targeted to be completed at the end of May. Final decisions will be made within our disciplined capital allocation framework that Richard has spoken to. Given the remaining short life at Century, a pathway to new opportunities in Australia is important. I'm looking forward to spending time with the team on the ground next week and working through the opportunity set. With that, let me hand over to Robert.
Robert van Niekerk, Executive
Thank you, Charles, and hello, everybody. Sibanye Stillwater has a substantial life of mine and solid project base, focusing only on the precious metals. We've got 356 million ounces in the resource category, of which about 16% 58.2 million ounces has been converted into the mineral reserve category. SA PGM operations contributed about 50% of the resource base, 177 million ounces, and again, about 16% of that has been converted into reserves, 29.4 million ounces. If you look on the right-hand side of the slide, you can see that these reserves serve significant operations. Some of the Rustenburg operations have in excess of a 32-year life. The Marikana K4 project, has a 45-year life of mine, and the Marikana East 4 project has a 34-year life of mine. Our gold operations are mature; they are connected to the gold price but are very significant. We have a 43-million-ounce resource and a 9.4-million ounce reserve. The Beatrix operation in the Free State is a solid operation. The Driefontein operation is a very solid operation. Our DRD operation is our world-class tailings retreatment operation. We also have the Bernstein project, which is set to become a very efficient, shallow, low-cost, 25-year life of mine operation. The second biggest category of our resource base is our U.S. operations. Here, we have 80.9 million ounces in resource, of which only 19.4 million ounces have been converted into reserves. These assets are highly leveraged, high grade, and quality assets. The Stillwater mine has a 26-year life of mine and the East Boulder mine has in excess of 30 years, actually 35 years life of mine. We’d like to add that this year, we have included a maiden reserve for the Marikana East project in the SA PGM region. We have also included a maiden reserve for the Cooke TSF and made a maiden reserve for the Mount Lyell copper project in Tasmania, Australia. In closing, I'd like to leave everybody on the call with a message that next year, '26 and 2027, Sibanye Stillwater will be focusing on converting a large percentage of the abundant resources into reserves.
Melanie Naidoo-Vermaak, Sustainability Executive
Thank you, Robert. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening to all attendees. Our renewable energy program remains central to our journey towards carbon neutrality. Having set ourselves a target to reduce our emissions by 40% come 2030. With the conclusion of the new agreements with Etana and NOA, our renewable pipeline has expanded to 765 megawatts, delivering nearly the same capacity as a single Kusile unit, thereby strengthening our energy security and accelerating progress towards carbon neutrality. This positions us as the largest contracted private renewable energy offtake in South African mining. By 2028, it will supply more than half of our South African energy needs—generating over ZAR 1 billion in annual savings and avoiding 2.6 million tonnes of CO2 each year, a 41% reduction from our 2024 levels. Our operations, high water demand and presence in water stream catchments make strong water stewardship critical. Through disciplined management practices, and our investment in advanced water treatment plants, we've significantly reduced portable water reliance and increased resilience while also contributing to margins. Four of our operations are now fully independent of municipal portable water, with our gold assets at 94% independence. Importantly, the water liberated through these efforts is equivalent to the needs of a midsized city and an essential social contribution in a water-scarce country grappling with water challenges. Our commitment to communities remains equally strong. Through the Marikana renewal process, we prioritized addressing the needs of affected families and rebuilding trust. A key focus was closing the housing gap for families not supported by the AMCU Trust. I'm pleased to share that we delivered the final two of seventeen houses, honoring our commitments to the widows. As a business, we remain committed to shared value with all stakeholders as we earn trust where we operate.
Charles Carter, COO
Thank you, Melanie. At Keliber, we are looking forward to hosting a Market Day in a couple of months and then a deep dive on the operation. When you get there, you will see a really impressive build, and the team on the ground led by Hannu Hautala has done an incredible job in completing the build program on schedule. This is Sibanye's first greenfields project build, and it has been incredibly well executed. The financial investment decision for the refinery was made in November 2022. In October 2023, the scope change for the effluent treatment plant was approved, along with authorization to begin construction of the concentrator. Mechanical completion has been achieved for all components of both the concentrator and refinery, with the exception of the rotary kiln at the refinery. Mining activities were delayed due to postponing contract signing until the completion of the deep dive analysis in the second half of last year. Commissioning of the concentrator crusher, conveyance system, sorting plant, and laboratory is scheduled to be completed ahead of plan. The phased approach is a direct outcome of the deep dive work conducted by the corporate technical team. The guidance is that we will produce at least 15,000 kilotonnes to 20,000 kilotonnes of spodumene this year either for direct sale or as feed into the refinery, if approved late this year and subject to market conditions. Let me unpack the stage approach in a little more detail. Stage 1, EUR 783 million, is the initial capital and excludes any other preproduction SIB costs. 237 kilotonnes of stockpile is required by year-end, countering the limitation put in the Syvajarvi mining permit, being kept at 540 kilotonnes. Stage 2, spodumene grade of greater than 5.1% is targeted to ensure a sellable product, which will not incur penalties or rejection from commercial counterparties. Stage 3 refinery startup decision is conventional in the market assessment at the time. If it's a pause, we will continue with spodumene sales. Stage 4 focus on technical grade will allow the team to sort processing issues before quality issues. We will continue to incorporate lessons learned from other facilities. The spiking SIB in 2008 in the graph on the lower left is driven by the waste stripping for the Rapasaari pit. The cost overview will be updated as we get new insights from our cost optimization and debottlenecking studies. The team is focused on improving this picture. The further optimization work is focused primarily on mining study work to optimize pick design, pushbacks, and stockpiling. We're targeting a potential EUR 10 million to EUR 15 million savings and the mine to deliver a stockpile of 50 kilotonnes by June 30, about 1 month of inventory. We are targeting 237-kilotonnes to be on stockpile to ensure stable production in 2027. We've kicked off mining optimization studies, which extended life only out of the Syvajarvi and Rapasaari pits. We intend to kick off further work on the other pits as well this year, and work on the new pit, which will lie close to Rapasaari. When you're on site, you will see that we have a strong land position with further exploration options ahead of us at the right time. Given all the exploration juniors that have paid claims outside of our lease boundary, I have no doubt that the lithium story has legs in Northern Western Finland for a very long time to come. The cost overview will be updated as we get new insights from our cost optimization and debottlenecking studies. The team is focused on improving this picture. Refinery debottlenecking study is targeting higher throughput potential and overall yield improvement also on the go. This is about increasing refining capacity by adding a magnetic separator and resolving process bottlenecks. We're looking to boost the yield 2% to 3% recovery in lithium from the effluent treatment stream, reducing ETP costs by reviewing current initiatives and working with other third parties to support refinery commissioning and ramp-up phases.
Charl Keyter, CFO
Thank you, Charles. Good morning to all participants. It gives me great pleasure to share the financial results for the year ended 2025. If we start with the key highlights. Headline earnings per share for 2025 increased 281% to ZAR 244 cents per share. During the same period, adjusted EBITDA increased almost threefold from ZAR 13 billion to just under ZAR 38 billion, a 189% increase. As a reminder, we have set a target of reducing gross debt by 50% from the current ZAR 2.2 billion level over the next 2 to 3 years. Through the cycle, the target of below 1x net debt to EBITDA remains consistent with our financial policy and has served us well during periods of constrained commodity prices. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA at the end of 2025 is down from 1.77x at the end of 2024 to 0.59x at the end of 2025. As a reminder, the dividend declared for 2025, as you heard, is ZAR 131 cents per share or a 2% yield. Turning to the income statement. Revenue increased by 16% and costs were down 8%. However, as highlighted on the previous slide, this translated to an increase of almost 200% in adjusted EBITDA. Noteworthy items for 2025 include the following: the loss on financial instruments of ZAR 3.8 billion was due to the impact of the protective gold hedges that amounted to ZAR 1.7 billion as well as a revaluation of the Burnstone debt. With the sharp increase in the long-term price of gold, the Burnstone debt is expected to be fully repaid, which meant we had to increase this liability by ZAR 1.7 billion. Another big item that impacted this period. Impairments for the year at the U.S. PGM operations, Keliber and Kloof amounted to ZAR 15.8 billion. The impairment at Kloof was due to the reduction in the life of mine due to the removal of isolated blocks of ground for safety reasons. The impairment at the U.S. PGM operations and Keliber were due to changes in economic parameters such as long-term prices. This was partially offset by the reversal of impairments at Beatrix, Driefontein, and Burnstone due to the increase in the long-term price of gold. The transaction cost includes the $215 million or ZAR 3.6 billion settlement of the Appian claim. If we look at net other costs, that benefited from credits in 2024 that were one-offs and did not repeat in 2025. Notably, taxes and royalties of ZAR 4.3 billion increased in proportion to our profitability. As already mentioned, a full year dividend of ZAR 3.7 billion or at the top end of the range, 35% of normalized earnings will be paid compared to the last dividend we paid in 2023. This represents a 146% increase on an absolute basis. In 2025, we had significant non-routine cash impacts affecting our financial results. These included the Appian payment and the gold hedges put in place in December 2024 to ensure the ongoing sustainability of our gold operations. The question many will ask is what would your financial results have looked like in the absence of these non-routine items? The short answer is that the money available for the 3 areas of distribution would have increased by ZAR 5.2 billion to approximately ZAR 14.6 billion, and each bucket would have received ZAR 4.9 billion. In 2025 on a look-back basis, we allocated more to growth as one because the revised allocation model was not in place, and two, we were finalizing the Keliber project. Importantly, for 2026, our growth capital plan, excluding DRD, is ZAR 3.7 billion compared to the ZAR 9.4 billion we spent in 2025. The growth capital excludes Burnstone and other projects in the study phase. As we generate cash and earn the right to allocate more to each bucket, these will be considered. Our debt maturities remain manageable due to a well-constructed maturity profile. Gross debt was ZAR 39 billion and less the cash on hand of ZAR 17 billion equated to net debt of ZAR 22 billion. Liquidity headroom is strong at ZAR 40 billion or roughly 5.5 months of OpEx plus CapEx. The next priority on our debt profile will be the upcoming renewal and downsizing of our 2026 $675 million bond, and the target date for completion is before the end of the first half of 2026 and this will be subject to supportive markets.
Kleantha Pillay, Market Analyst
Thanks, Charles, and good morning, everyone. Markets were characterized by tariff uncertainty and geopolitical tensions throughout 2025 and into 2026. This has driven the precious metals rally. Gold spot prices brought the $4,500 mark during December, up 73% since the beginning of the year and driven by geopolitics, wars, and a weak U.S. dollar. Gold ETFs were up 25% year-on-year to 4,000 tonnes, and Central Bank buying continued. The platinum price rally has been driven largely by tariff uncertainty and was exacerbated by primary supply disruptions during the first half of the year. 3E recycling volumes were up 9% year-on-year. However, this is still below the pre-COVID levels despite better prices attracting hoarded stock. The tariff uncertainty has resulted in significant platinum flows into both the U.S. and China. Over 600,000 ounces of platinum was imported into the U.S. in July compared with normal levels of around 200,000 ounces. Between July and October, 1 million ounces of above normal levels moved into the U.S., and overall, platinum imports were up over 50% year-on-year. NYMEX stocks quickly peaked at about 650,000 ounces in April and then dropped back to 280,000 ounces in July. This as reciprocal tariffs were delayed, and then PGMs were on the list of goods not subject to tariffs. Stocks then jumped back to around 700,000 ounces in October as the outcome of the Section 232 investigation was delayed due to the government shutdown. Since then, the outcome has been announced as negotiations not tariffs. So uncertainty still lingers. Imports of platinum into China also increased steadily during the first half of the year and then fell back in the second half as prices became too high. Investors and jewelry manufacturers switched into platinum as gold just became too expensive. Overall, platinum imports into China were up 7% year-on-year to 4.5 million ounces, supported by the launch of platinum futures trading on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in November. Large daily trading volumes north of 6 million ounces per day in December resulted in the GFEX implementing trading restrictions. Platinum demand during 2025 was largely driven by investments and speculation rather than by fundamental industrial requirements. Over the near term, we continue to forecast deficits for both platinum and palladium while the rhodium market balance will remain first to balance. The recent rally in prices has set a new higher base and the heightened focus on securing critical minerals will continue to drive regional supply chains and with it price differentiation. Moving on to lithium, the appreciation in lithium prices in quarter 4 was driven by China's anti-evasion drive and the clampdown on primary supply in that country, as well as from better-than-anticipated demand from battery energy storage systems. China changed the feed-in tariff model for renewable energy mid-2025, unlocking demand for energy storage systems. Prices moved from low $7,000 per tonne levels up to just over $16,000 per ton currently. Inventory levels remain low as Cattle's lepidolite mine has yet to start producing again, and winter supply from brine production is reduced. Looking out to 2029, battery energy storage system demand is expected to grow at a 23% CAGR while demand from battery electric vehicles will grow at a 9% CAGR. The market is expected to remain in surplus over the medium term and will start tightening from 2028 to 2029. New supply will need to be incentivized by higher prices. Looking forward to the rest of this year, we remain bullish on gold. We believe that PGM prices have reset at a higher base, but will continue to be volatile. Similarly, we believe that lithium prices will continue to be influenced by Chinese decision-making. We will, therefore, continue focusing on what is in our control: performance and delivery at our operations. I'll now hand back to Richard to conclude.
Richard Stewart, CEO
Thanks very much, Kleantha. Just heading into the last section to wrap up with. Starting off with our guidance for 2026 and the outlook. Starting off with our South African PGM operations, I think there's a very slight decline in terms of our production guidance in line with the overall life of mine profile that many of you will be familiar with, but no significant changes across the South African PGM operations. Guidance of the South African gold operations is slightly lower than what we achieved this year or during 2025, driven largely by the reduction of output at the Kloof operations, as Richard touched on earlier. In terms of the U.S. PGMs, we do see a slight increase in terms of output at the underground operations that is coupled with the ongoing work towards reducing overall unit costs to about $1,000 per ounce. Some of that is associated with increased capital as we start making those investments. On the recycling, we've quoted our production guidance as a gold equivalent to ounces. You'll see 400,000 to 420,000 ounces there, noting that is gold equivalent. We produce a range of metals, but when looking at it on this basis, it demonstrates the significance of this business, almost 0.5 million equivalent gold ounces that we have built over time, as we mentioned, low capital intensity, very low capital base. On Keliber, the guidance we are providing is anticipating producing spodumene concentrate as we ramp up the concentrate at this stage. Whether or not that goes into the refinery, of course, will depend on the decision that is made on the commissioning of the refinery. We are guiding towards a total expenditure of about EUR 180 million to EUR 190 million. To unpack that briefly, approximately half of that, about EUR 90 million is the remaining project capital due to be spent predominantly in the first quarter and a little bit in quarter 2. That is in line with the original project capital of EUR 780 million, which we've shared with the market. The balance is essentially the cost of as we ramp up the overall operation. At Century zinc, this is likely to be the last full year of production on a Century zinc, largely in line with what was achieved during 2025. Moving on to the strategy, I think as we outlined in my earlier slides, I think we've set a very solid base moving forward into 2026. The 4 key pillars regarding our strategy are simplification, simplification of our operating model and our portfolio, performance excellence, which you heard us touch on and unpack around safe production, operational excellence, optimizing our resources to maximize value, and embedding sustainability in the way we operate. Growth is initially focused on value creation—we believe we can drive from our existing resources and unlock organic value. A disciplined capital allocation model by bringing these 4 pillars together with the base we've set in 2025, we confidently can unlock significant value as we move forward into 2026, irrespective of the environment we find ourselves operating in. Wrapping up with the overall strategy shared with the market at the end of January towards creating a future-focused metals business, in the short term, our strategy is focused on strengthening our business fundamentals. This will be achieved through increasing our operating margins through operational excellence, simplifying our operating model, and ultimately simplifying our portfolio toward the highest-return assets and cash-generative assets. If we are successful in this regard, we will generate free cash through a disciplined capital allocation framework that looks at returning capital to shareholders, reducing our total gross debt, and investing in the growth and sustainability of the business, particularly unlocking our inherent resource value. We certainly see that as ultimately continuing to build our business, building our production profile, and continuing to build on our resource stewardship model across primary mining, secondary mining, and recycling. In conclusion, once again, thank you for joining us today. To sum up in 3 quick points—where we are sitting today as a business. We have had a solid operational output in 2025 and are well positioned moving into 2026 to unlock the significant value within our portfolio. We have seen a noisy set of financials, but looking through that, there is some real financial stability in the company. We've reduced our gearing significantly and at the current commodity prices that we are experiencing and the operational output we are achieving, we look forward to significant cash flow moving forward. Finally, we have a resilience and disciplined strategy. This strategy is independent of the external environment and positions us for long-term themes underpinning growth within the commodities market. We launched our strategy on the 29th of January. Today, we have shared our results. At the end of April, we will be looking to have a 2-day Capital Markets Day focused specifically on our international operations. That will be a webcast as well as an in-person visit in Finland to our Keliber operations, but we'll also cover both U.S. and recycling and Australian operations. Towards the end of June, another 2-day Capital Markets Day in South Africa focused on our goals in PGM operations. We look forward to engaging with you and getting those invitations out. Thank you once again for joining us today. We're happy to take any questions you may have.