Earnings Call
Sibanye Stillwater Ltd (SBSW)
Earnings Call Transcript - SBSW Q2 2025
Neal John Froneman, CEO
Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, good afternoon, and good evening. Welcome to our H1 2025 results presentation. Please pay attention to the safe harbor statement as it contains important forward-looking information. Thank you. Let’s proceed to the next slide. As you're aware, today marks my final results presentation with Sibanye prior to my retirement at the end of September. The structure for today will involve my introduction, which will highlight key features of the first half of 2025. I will then hand over to Richard Stewart, our CEO Designate, who will oversee the remainder of the presentation and the Q&A session. Although I will be available to respond to questions, I kindly ask that you direct your inquiries to Richard, and I will be pleased to address any personal questions specifically directed to me. Thank you. Now, let's move on to the key features. Safety remains our top priority, though it is regrettable that we experienced three fatalities during this reporting period. Despite this sad reality, we are seeing positive progress with improvements in our safety frequency rates, which will be elaborated on further in the presentation. Overall, I believe H1 has demonstrated solid delivery, with the exception of a disappointing performance at our Kloof gold operations, which will be further discussed. Encouragingly, our group adjusted EBITDA was 120% higher than in the same period in 2024. All references to previous periods will pertain to the same timeframe last year. Even excluding the 45X credits, our earnings were still 51% higher compared to the same period at ZAR 10 billion. This strong performance is a result of solid operations, and later in the first half of the year, we benefited from rising basket prices. Our leverage, as measured by net debt to adjusted EBITDA, stands at 0.89x, which is well below 1x and significantly lower than earlier market projections. The total value of 45X credits to date is ZAR 5.2 billion. At current conservative production rates, the fair value of these credits extends to ZAR 12.6 billion through 2034. This represents 32% of the acquisition value for the Stillwater operations in Montana. I also want to highlight that we secured a $500 million stream on this. Importantly, this asset has been funded through prior earnings, and conservatively speaking, the funds raised from the 45X credits and the stream account for 54% of the original acquisition value, marking it as an excellent investment. Additionally, we have filed a petition for a palladium trade remedy as part of our multipolarity strategy. The prospects of 45X credits and a successful remedy outcome are strong indicators of the value we have already built and the potential value from this strategy in the U.S. Looking at the graphs below, you will see significant information, and the key takeaway is the trend, which remains positive. I am pleased to leave this company with a trajectory of increasing earnings and decreasing leverage. I am confident that Richard will lead this company to new heights. Now, let’s review the last slide before I hand it back to the CEO. Our total shareholder returns since listing show that we are positioned at the top of the list. I am proud of what we have achieved despite challenging market conditions, and I believe Richard and his team will lead us back to the top with rising commodity prices. Let’s move to the next slide, please. Thank you. Richard, please join me. In previous results presentations, I have discussed best practices in succession planning, and I believe we have adhered to these principles, resulting in a world-class leadership transition. Richard will soon introduce his team and the new members in his office. I trust that under Richard’s guidance and with his exceptional team, the company will reach greater heights. Richard, I will be following your progress with interest as a shareholder. I will be attentive but will refrain from posing challenging questions during presentations. I wish you all the best in your upcoming journey.
Richard Andrew Stewart, CEO Designate
Neal, thank you very much. I guess if I could just take a brief opportunity to firstly say, I think when I was informed of my appointment to be taking over from Neal in October, I got some very sage advice from a seasoned campaigner at the time for whom I have much respect, whose advice to me was just remember that what got you to this point in your career may not be what you need for the next phase. And I think over the last 6 months, I have realized, I don't know that you're ever 100% ready for a transition of this nature. However, as Neal has outlined, I think I would like to commend and thank our Chairman, our Board, but Neal, in particular, for what has been a very well thought out, deliberate and structured transition process. This has given me the opportunity to transition out of my last role and ensure a continuation of the leadership within the South African region that remains a critical region to our business. That's also given me the opportunity to visit our operations and meet with stakeholders, both internal and external, but in particular, to work alongside Neal and truly understand the many nuances of our business, but I don't know you always get to experience when filling an individual executive role. I truly hope that this instills confidence amongst our many stakeholders that this transition has been planned with the utmost efficiency. And that was together with the experienced team that we have, we will continue to build and evolve the legacy of Sibanye-Stillwater. I'd also like to just take this opportunity to thank Neal. No doubt from the slides that you've seen him present, you would realize that the company, Neal will be leaving at the end of September as he transitions into a new phase of life, is a very different platform to what we inherited and started with in 2013. We have a significant operating base, we have a fantastic set of resources, and we have a world-class experienced and committed team that will continue to grow the legacy of Sibanye-Stillwater. Neal, thank you for that. Moving on to an overview of the first half of 2025. I think as mentioned in my last statement, we have significant continuity in the leadership of the team. For those of you who have been familiar with the team, you'll see there's very little change at a C-suite level. We do, however, welcome Richard Cox into the role of the Chief Regional Officer for Southern Africa, taking up the role that I previously fulfilled. We have not moved quickly to replace the head of business development at this stage. It has not been a huge priority for us over the last few months. But certainly, looking ahead, that will be a position we will look to fill in the near future. Where we have seen some expansion in terms of the leadership team is in the CEO's office. James Wellsted will be known to many of you, and he will continue in his role as the Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Affairs for the group, but we also welcome on board Bryony Watson. Bryony will be taking over from George Ashworth as our Chief of Staff as George retires with Neal at the end of September. We also welcome Kleantha Pillay, who will be moving into a group role heading up our sales and marketing, and this is very much an underpin towards our customer focus for the various metals and products that we produce. And finally, George Coetzee is joining the team as Head of Group Safety and will be reporting directly into myself. On safety, that certainly remains our #1 focus and our first priority. As Neal mentioned, I think it's been very pleasing this half to see a continued sustained decline in many of our lagging indicators. Over the past 3.5 years since we started our fatal elimination program, we have seen both our serious injury frequency rate and our total recordable injury frequency rate declining by about 15% year-on-year. Having achieved 3.9, the lowest ever in terms of our total recordable injury frequency rate, the first half of this year was particularly pleasing, given that we had set ourselves a target of going below 4 by the end of 2025. Nevertheless, despite these improving trends, it is with a very heavy heart that we do need to still report on the loss of 3 colleagues during the first half of this year. Mr. Xavier Humberto, at our Kloof operations; Ms. Bomkazi Jozana, at our Driefontein operations; and Ms. Motzelo at our Rustenburg operations. Our thoughts and prayers are with their families who will continue to receive our support. It is also sad to note that we have lost a colleague in July post the reporting period at our Stillwater operations. And similarly, our thoughts, prayers and sincere condolences go to the families of Bryan Hanson. Eliminating fatal incidents and life-changing incidents is our absolute #1 priority. And that is because we care. One of the ways to measure ourselves against whether or not we are progressing on this journey is through a leading indicator we've developed around our high potential incidents. And it has been pleasing that since we started measuring this in August of 2022, despite a significant increase in the number of near-miss reports that we are generating across our group, we have seen a consistent decline in the high energy incidents that could potentially result in a loss of life. These number of incidents have decreased from an average of around 50 to 60 incidents per month down to below 10. This still remains high and is the absolute focus of our leadership and management team to mitigate and eliminate these incidents and thereby fatals within our operations. For 2025, we will continue to drive this through enhancing compliance across the group, primarily through our leadership and effective management routines but also through embedding critical controls that mitigate against this high risk. We fully recognize that in order to have a long-term sustainable elimination of fatal and life-changing incidents requires a true culture throughout the organization, a culture of care. And that too is being driven from the highest levels. Moving on to our strategic positioning, as Neal mentioned, we believe we are well positioned not only to survive but to thrive in a very turbulent and volatile industry and world. Firstly, our diversification in commodities, particularly our exposure to gold, has helped stabilize our earnings through challenging market cycles. Additionally, we have made strategic investments to prepare ourselves for long-term market growth, including in lithium and precious group metals. We anticipated global geopolitical shifts several years ago, recognizing that the demand for local supply, especially for critical minerals, would increase. We have positioned ourselves in relevant ecosystems while ensuring we process the metals we extract to create valuable end products for the supply chains we participate in. We've seen tangible benefits from our U.S. operations, such as the Section 45X credits and our petition against unrolled palladium imports from Russia. We have also developed the first fully integrated lithium project in Europe, which is strategically important given the increased focus on local supply of critical metals. Construction of Keliber is nearing completion and will finish in the first half of next year. While we recognize that the lithium market is currently under pressure, we are evaluating a responsible start-up for these operations. Furthermore, we have been granted strategic project status for both Keliber and our GalliCam project in France under the EU Critical Raw Materials Act, which has provided us with access to grants and tax credits as these projects progress. An important aspect of our asset base is our extensive resources. We have significant opportunities within our existing operations and have started selectively investing in certain projects during this cycle. Many of these projects are characterized by low capital intensity, the lowest in the industry, as they already have much of the necessary infrastructure in place. It's encouraging to see K4 ramping up and the positive effects on the Marikana operations, particularly on unit costs. Recently, in June, we approved the start of the Siphumelele-Bambanani mechanization project, which will enhance efficiencies and reduce costs for both Siphumelele and Bambanani while unlocking significant resources that were previously not utilized. We are currently evaluating the Burnstone project, which was placed on care and maintenance to protect our balance sheet about 18 months ago, and we expect to make a decision by the end of this year. Earlier this year, we also announced a joint venture with Glencore and Merafe to optimize the value from byproducts produced in our South African PGM operations and chrome, which is currently under consideration by the Competition Commission. This will create significant value for our operations and multiple stakeholders. Our strategy is grounded in sustainability, which is essential for modern responsible mining companies. It's gratifying that in the first half of this year, we expanded our presence in the circular economy by acquiring Metallix, which complements our existing recycling business. Additionally, we are pleased to have received our first renewable energy from our Castle Wind Farm, which was commissioned at the end of the first quarter. This project has already saved us over ZAR 20 million on our energy bill in South Africa and has reduced our total carbon footprint by about 60,000 tonnes. Lastly, we concluded our annual Marikana memorial lectures last week, and a key theme was the importance of genuine stakeholder engagement. This engagement fosters trust, understanding, and collaboration to create a beneficial future for all stakeholders involved in our operations. Moving on to our operations at a high level, our SA PGM operations can be described as stable and consistent. They consistently meet both production and cost targets. We have been investing in these assets throughout the cycle, including K4 and the recent decision to invest in the Siphumelele-Bambanani mechanized project. Our U.S. PGM operations have successfully undergone restructuring since 2024, leading to significant reductions in costs and minimizing cash outflows. With the recent Section 45X financial support related to the increasing palladium price, these operations are returning to positive earnings. However, we recognize that controlling costs is essential for long-term competitiveness, and we have a plan to lower costs to below $1,000 per 2E ounce over the next 2 to 3 years. As mentioned, the only operations currently not meeting guidance and disappointing relative to expectations are the ISA Gold operations. They faced a challenging start to the year, but both Driefontein and Beatrix improved to expected output levels in the second quarter, and we anticipate a strong second half from both. Kloof, however, faced significant challenges due to seismic activity, leading to reduced production in some areas for safety reasons. Additionally, infrastructure difficulties during the transition from a low-volume, high-grade operation to a higher-volume, low-grade operation have prompted us to reassess Kloof to understand its future production potential in the current environment, with that evaluation expected to conclude in the latter half of this year. It's notable that operations initially slated for closure by 2020, after 13 years, still contribute nearly 50% of our earnings, which is a testament to our gold teams and management. We are also pleased with our investment returns in DRD Gold, which remains our long-term exposure to gold. Despite significant capital investments into Project 2028, which is set to increase production by about 30% and extend the longevity of the West Rand operations, they have managed to deliver a significant dividend for which we are extremely grateful. Our Australian operations faced challenges last year due to climate change, experiencing both flooding and fire. Credit goes to our teams in Australia for learning from these incidents, mitigating risks, and implementing remediation measures, resulting in performance well above expectations this year. Our recycling business continues to distinguish itself and provides exposure to critical metals with low capital costs, becoming increasingly important as regional supply chains seek to secure critical minerals. Sandouville is continuing to ramp down, and we expect that operation to enter full-time care and maintenance by January 2026. The GalliCam pre-feasibility project will be completed around year-end, influencing our strategy for Sandouville moving forward. Lastly, Keliber is on track to begin the construction phase by early 2026. We have navigated the peak project capital cycle, and we're currently evaluating the most responsible ramp-up of Keliber given the current depressed lithium market conditions. I think looking at our earnings graph over the last 2.5 years tells the story that we have been through from an operational restructuring and repositioning. Having recognized the significantly and very fast decline in the PGM markets in 2023, we moved to restructure our loss-making operations and reposition our business. Through this, we were able to arrest that earnings decline and kept it stable during that period of significant restructuring. And seeing the benefits of that now coming through together with good operational performance, and as Neal mentioned, more recently, increasing commodity prices has seen a significant turnaround in our earnings base, more than 50% higher than what we experienced at the same time last year, excluding the one-off credits, which are a real value that has been added during the period under review. I think as we move through our peak capital cycle, getting to the end of the Keliber and the K4 projects, this is an opportunity to focus on cash conversion from our operations. As Neal mentioned, it's been pleasing to see the turnaround as well and the declining trend in terms of our net debt to EBITDA, with that number coming in significantly or comfortably below 1x, which is the level and target that we have set ourselves. But with increasing cash generation, our focus will now also turn on an overall reduction on our gross debt number. And finally, I think our capital allocation model is one we've shared with the market on several occasions and one you're probably familiar with. But again during the difficult cycle we have been through over the last couple of years, I think just to confirm that we have remained true to our capital allocation model. Firstly, looking at project capital, we have responsibly invested through the cycle. We have completed the 1 year in completion of the build of the Keliber lithium project. We're nearing completion of the K4 project as that is currently ramping up in production. And most recently, approved the commencement of the Siphumelele-Bambanani mechanization project. Burnstone, as I mentioned, is currently being assessed. And to talk to the responsible nature of this, we have also walked away from several investments including the rhyolite ridge opportunity, the lithium project in the U.S., which did not meet our hurdle rates. We have said in terms of our capital allocation that we do want to maintain healthy cash reserves and we have managed to maintain our target of ZAR 20 billion, which provides us with the required liquidity and headroom to manage the business comfortably. I think it's important to highlight that our dividend policy does and will continue to remain unchanged at 25% to 35% of normalized earnings. Over the past few years, dividends have not been paid in line with the policy. And at present, we are just starting to enter again a position of dividend-paying territory. Given the current global uncertainty and commodity price volatility, we have made a decision not to pay dividends at the interim at the half year, but we will be reviewing this at the year-end. And certainly, with our current outlook on the second half, should commodity prices remain where they are, we are confident that we will be back in dividend-paying territory by the end of the year. Moving on to our balance sheet and debt management. I think as you've heard, our balance sheet remains in a healthy position. We have sufficient liquidity. We've got an undemanding debt maturity ladder, which Charles will touch on in a bit more detail and our net debt to adjusted EBITDA has returned to below 1x and therefore, derisked our balance sheet compared to where we were 12 to 18 months ago. And finally, we have made some small but very measured and strategic growth investments. The acquisition of Metallix, which we announced in July, will expand our very strategic recycling footprint. And this is an acquisition that is expected to contribute immediately to the group's earnings and cash flow and also presents significant opportunity to leverage our existing recycling footprint that we have in the U.S. and internationally. And then as I mentioned, we have also announced the Glencore Merafe JV transaction where we truly look to enhance value from our chrome byproducts at our SA PGM operations. And with that, I'll hand over to Kleantha, who will take us through an overview of the markets. Thank you.
Kleantha Pillay, Head of Groups Sales and Marketing
Thank you, Richard, and good afternoon to everyone. I'm going to talk through 3 slides, and I'll be covering the macros, PGMs and lithium performance over the half year as well as our expectations for the next 18 months. Markets have been overwhelmed by the constant tariff news, which continues to create uncertainty. The cost of goods imported into the U.S. will rise to reflect the tariffs, in turn potentially reducing demand. The U.S. is forecast to have slower GDP growth as a result of these tariffs, although this has been upgraded following this pricing of the spending bill. In the near term, quarter 3 and quarter 4 growth is expected to slow as the impact of tariff front-running phase. Global Data's U.S. light vehicle sales forecast has been reduced by 1 million ounces for 2025 and over 1 million ounces in 2026 to reflect the impact of the tariffs. While this will lower PGM demand, it will also impact used vehicle scrappage rates with cars being kept on the road for longer, putting pressure on the secondary supply. China is only modestly impacted by the tariffs, having reduced their reliance on the U.S. for exports over the past few years. Growth is still, however, predicted to fall short of government's 5% target. Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.6% this year, largely dragged down by the weaker outlook for the U.S. A combination of the weaker U.S. dollar, range-bound yields with expectations of future rate cuts and worsening geopolitical tensions has resulted in strong gold investment demand from the over-the-counter markets, ETFs and of course, from central banks. Gold prices were up 26% in the first half of the year, with average gold trading volumes of $329 billion per day during the first half, the highest for any half-year period on record. Broad and sustained conflict resolution, which seems quite unlikely in the current environment could see a moderation in price. More likely, though, should economic conditions deteriorate exacerbating geopolitical tensions, safe haven demand will remain strong. Now moving on to PGMs. The rally in PGM prices, including those of the minor metals is reflective of the tape supply situation in South Africa. Platinum prices have outperformed, driven by lower mine supplies. And looking ahead, local production is expected to fall below the 3.8 million ounce level this year, reflecting the lack of investment over the years, coupled with aging assets. Metal flows were significantly impacted by tariff threats with almost 360,000 ounces of platinum flowing into U.S. ComEx vaults between January and April. Following the delay in reciprocal tariffs and the PGMs being on the list of goods not subject to tariffs, ComEx Volt stocks fell back to the 270,000 ounce level by mid-July. Platinum lease rates have been significantly elevated through the half year, with 1 monthly lease rates moving from just over 11% in January to a July peak of almost 37%. Investor interest in platinum contributed to the elevated demand with more price upside expected compared to gold, and we saw a net platinum ETF inflow of 30,000 ounces during the half year. Chinese platinum imports were up 63% year to June, driven by investment interest and some jewelry manufacturing, which is dominated by gold switched to the lower-cost platinum metal. While positive, Chinese consumer sentiment and the October Golden Week holidays will offer indicators of whether this actually translates into retail success. Palladium demand has also been driven by investment. We saw net palladium ETF inflows of 115,000 ounces in the first half of the year, while more recent high prices have led to some profit-taking. Since early August, positions have stabilized around the 870,000 ounce level. The increase in rhodium prices can also be attributed to the tight supply from South Africa as well as more buying interest from auto OEMs. Stocks are clearly depleted, and some OEMs are gearing up for more stringent China 6B testing standards. The demand for ruthenium has been driven by new chemicals capacity in China, and this is the production of caprolactam, which is used to make nylon fibers as well as for the ever-increasing demand for data storage boosted by the AI boom. Ruthenium prices were up 49% in the half year and have since hit all-time highs of $930 per ounce. Global government and defense industry interest in securing niche critical metals has also resulted in emerging investor interest in the mine at PGMs. Over the next 18 months, we again see downward revisions to late duty vehicle production with battery electric vehicles being the most impacted, while hybrid vehicles have been slightly upgraded. We also see some near-term growth in PGM loadings as China gears up for tighter emissions testing standards. Secondary supply is expected to remain largely flat year-on-year, and the higher PGM prices during the first half of this year, together with some consolidation in the U.S. recycling market, resulted in some ordered volumes at U.S. scrap yards being liquidated. However, scrapped vehicle numbers are expected to fall both in the U.S. and Europe following weak new vehicle sales. In Asia, we see some pickup as Japan's new car sales improve and China scrappage incentive scheme lifts volumes. In summary, in the short term, the running PGM price has been underpinned by supply tightness and purchasing for investment and jewelry. Longer-term cyclical trends, as we all well know, are demand rather than supply-driven. And we, therefore, remain rather cautious on prices, though the recent drag has possibly set us a new higher base. The outlook to the end of next year remains positive due to higher hybrid vehicle forecasts coupled with declining primary supply and lower levels of auto cat recycling. We expect to see both platinum and palladium remaining in deficit after 2026, with the rhodium market remaining close to balance. Global growth remains the biggest risk to the forecast.
Richard Allen Cox, Chief Regional Officer for Southern Africa
Thank you, Kleantha. Hello, everyone. Our South African PGM operations, which continue to deliver consistent, reliable performance are on track to achieve guidance for the third year running, and 8 out of 9 years overall. Total production for the first half of 2025 was 840,000 4E ounces, 4% lower year-on-year. This reflects consistent performance from underground operations at 750,000 4E ounces, in line with the first half of 2024. Rustenburg, up 2%, Marikana, down 1%, while service production was down by 50% to 54,000 4E ounces, impacted by higher seasonal rainfall affecting the entire industry in the first quarter of 2025. Purchase of concentrate volumes from third parties were also 29% lower at 35,800 4E ounces, in line with revised annual contractual agreements. The second quarter of 2025 production improved 13% over the first quarter across most shafts. Operating costs, excluding purchase of concentrate in Mimosa production, were well contained, increasing by just 4% to ZAR 19.3 billion, which is below inflation, attributable in part to last year's restructuring and closure of high-cost shafts, offsetting additional toll processing costs from Kroondal shift to toll treatment of concentrate in September 2024. All-in sustaining unit costs increased 11% to ZAR 23,900 per 4E ounce, in line with our ZAR 23,500 to ZAR 24,500 per 4E ounce guidance range, impacted by lower production, a 20% rise in sustaining capital mainly at Marikana and 11% lower byproduct credits. Chrome ore sales of 1.07 million tonnes decreased 17%, with revenue down 31% to ZAR 2.2 billion due to 12% lower production of 1.16 million tonnes under heavy rainfall and a 13% fall in chrome ore price to $259 per tonne. Our strategic efforts since 2016 to boost our chrome business have contributed to industry-leading all-in sustaining unit costs. Adjusted EBITDA was consistent at ZAR 4.8 billion year-on-year despite 16% fewer 4E ounces sold, due to smelter rebuilds at Marikana furnaces 1 and 2 and the consequent lower volumes through the precious metal refinery circuit. This was offset by a 7% higher average basket price of ZAR 26,300 per 4E ounce. We did have a ZAR 1.6 billion inventory buildup partly from Kroondal's pipeline change, reversible of net realizable value adjustments and the smelter rebuilds. And this buildup will be released in the second half of this year. The Marikana K4 project produced 44,000 4E ounces, a 68% increase year-on-year, positively contributing to reduced unit costs at Marikana, with project capital at K4 expected to decline from current levels of ZAR 305 million for the first half of '25 as the project ramps up. Our partnership with Glencore on the Merafe venture will unlock value by accelerating delivery of legacy Marikana chrome ore volumes by about 20 years, enhancing byproduct credits against all-in sustaining costs, and we're awaiting competition commissioning approval. We focused on moving down the cost curve and improving relative competitiveness. Pleasingly, Marikana continues to move down the cost curve as the Marikana K4 project ramps up to steady state in enhancing efficiency. This positions us favorably against peers, underscoring our cost discipline and leverage in the rising PGM environment. The combined Rustenburg and Kroondal operations are moving slightly up the cost curve due to the Kroondal change in toll treatment of concentrate, which added processing costs, but profitability benefits from higher revenue and margins and elevated metal prices, plus chrome ore byproduct offsets. Our low capital intensity brownfields projects relative to peers, such as the Bambanani-Siphumelele project, the Thembelani project, will continue to improve competitiveness. During the second quarter of 2025, the Board approved the Bambanani-Siphumelele project. This project involves the extension of the Bambanani decline allowing extraction of Siphumelele 2 reserves from low-cost mechanized Bambanani infrastructure. Given the improving production and sales outlook in the second half of this year and the PGM price, which has improved by 23% since the end of May to the current level of ZAR 31,600 per 4E ounce, the outlook for the SA PGM's operations is very positive. Our South African gold operations are highly leveraged to the gold price with an improving outlook. The average gold price received increased 36% year-on-year to slightly more than ZAR 1.8 million per kilogram. And adjusted EBITDA, which includes DRD Gold for the first half of 2025 increased by 118% to ZAR 4.8 billion from ZAR 2.2 billion for the first half of 2024. This is the highest since the second half of 2020. The contribution to group adjusted EBITDA increased to 48% from 33% for the first half of 2024 confirming the strategic importance of the South African gold assets in the diversified group portfolio. Production for the first half of 2025, including DRD Gold, declined 13% to 9.3 tonnes of gold. And from managed operations, excluding DRD Gold, production was lower by 14% to 7.1 tons. Excluding DRD Gold, EBITDA increased by 166% to ZAR 3 billion. Capital spend was lower by 16% to ZAR 1.7 billion with the Burnstone project on care and maintenance, ore reserve development down 3% to ZAR 1.4 billion and sustaining capital higher by 2%. Notably, and historically, these managed assets unbundled in 2013 is high-cost end-of-life assets with 13.5 million ounces in reserve and an 8-year remainder life of mine have produced 12.9 million ounces over the past 12 years. As stated, our managed gold assets delivered ZAR 3 billion of EBITDA in the first 6 months of this year. Since our ZAR 10 billion market capitalization in 2013, they've generated substantial cumulative earnings far exceeding that evaluation. With another 4 to 10 years ahead, these are functional and viable assets that have delivered outstanding returns. Driefontein operational performance improved during the second quarter of 2025 with gold production 32% higher compared to the first quarter after a January fire and March stock note by Section 54 order delayed ramp-up at the Flanganani fire shaft. Seismicity in high-grade VCR stopes also led to crew reassignments to lower grades. At Beatrix, we've built up the stockpile all ahead of the metallurgical plant due to ongoing upgrades and infrastructure constraints that have temporarily reduced throughput. This includes approximately 28,000 tonnes containing around 92 kilograms of gold, which we expect to process fully during the second half of this year. Overall, the mine itself is performing very well. And rather, the targeted improvements to the leach and carbon regeneration circuits that have necessitated this reduction in processing capacity leading to the temporary buildup. Turning to Kloof. Our operations faced a tough first half of 2025 primarily driven by increased seismicity in high-grade isolated blocks of ground along with infrastructure limitations in the shaft or parts and ventilation systems at 2 coning shaft. These issues have resulted in stop-start operations that further impact stability of production. Compounding this with two significant incidents. The tragic fatal accident at 1 Shaft in January, together with the Section 54 stoppage resulting in a loss of about 25,000 ounces and a shaft incident in May at the 7 shaft causing a further loss of roughly 2,000 ounces. Throughout though, our decisions have been guided by a strong emphasis on safety and the site's limited operational flexibility. Longer-term, current life of Mine is currently under comprehensive review to optimize the plan for long-term sustainability and commercial viability. All the while holding our unwavering commitment to safe production practices. Gold wage negotiations started in mid-July this year and are progressing constructively to date. Production and all-in sustaining cost guidance for the managed operations for the full year has been revised to between 15 and 16 tonnes and between ZAR 1.45 million and ZAR 1.55 million per kilogram following the first half performance and constraints at the operations. Our Burnstone project is being evaluated in the current high gold price environment together with funding options for value. Turning to DRD Gold, stable operating performance supported by higher gold prices have boosted earnings. Production decreased by 8% to 2.27 tonnes of gold for the first half of 2025. All-in sustaining costs increased 15% to ZAR 1.08 million per kilogram. Adjusted EBITDA grew 70% year-on-year to ZAR 1.8 million for the first half of 2025. This strong result enabled a final dividend of ZAR 0.40 per share for the year ended 30 June 2025, with around ZAR 178 million accruing to Sibanye-Stillwater. We thank DRD Gold for this dividend and the consistent cash flow the company provides. Our investment in DRD Gold circular economy model continues to deliver reliable earnings across market cycles. Looking forward to the second half of the year, we expect improved results from Driefontein and from Beatrix, with Kloof operations under review. Encouragingly, with third quarter average gold price to date at slightly more than ZAR 1.9 million per kilogram, 7% above the first half, if sustained, further profitability gains are anticipated.
Charles Carter, US Operations
Thank you, Richard. Our Montana PGM operations for the half year 2025, we produced 141,000 ounces at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,207 an ounce. This was in line with our plan, which as compared to our performance pre-restructuring late last year, saw a 41% decrease in all-in sustaining costs and a 52% reduction in total capital to $45 million. We had several disruptions during Q2, one of which was commissioning of an electric furnace #2 in Columbus, which resulted in an inventory lockup of approximately 5,700 ounces. This is cleared post quarter. As you'll see, adjusted EBITDA for the half year was $151 million. Richard Cox showed in the industry cost curve in his presentation that the Stillwater assets are currently sitting in the middle of the pack, whereas a year ago, we were the highest cost producer in the industry on the same graph. The team has done significant work to affect the shift and our intent is to keep moving down the cost curve, but to get to a consistent $1,000 an ounce cost character in these Montana operations from our current run rate of just under $1,400 an ounce before the Section 45X credit is going to take several years and requires a large number of changes from equipment through to debottlenecking all aspects of the mining and ore handling process in both Stillwater and East Boulder. That work is underway. It's looking good. We have a lot of heavy lifting to do to hit that aspirational target, but I think we're well on the way, and we'll talk to that as we go in the future on the plan for next year, et cetera. Section 45X of the Inflation Reduction Act saw a benefit for the mining operations of $159 million credited to costs in the half year. The impairment of $238 million was not related to operations but rather was due to a change in accounting treatment from the original evergreen treatment of Section 45X in the original Inflation Reduction Act to it now being phased out from 2031 through to 2034 with a 25% step down each year. Our treatment of Section 45 in our books has followed the letter of the law from the original Inflation Reduction act now to revisions on the newly promulgated Big Beautiful Act, which revised tax and spending policies in the U.S. We will be making our formal 45X submissions with revised tax filings during the second half of this year. We would expect the cash flow for the 2023 filing and the 2024 filing years to be realized next year in 2026. You will have also seen that together with the United Steel Workers, we recently filed an antidumping and countervailing duty petition against unwrought Russian palladium imports into the U.S. The petitions were filed with the U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. International Trade Commission. The goal of U.S. antidumping and countervailing duty law is to ensure that domestic producers can compete on a level playing field by addressing the market distortions caused by unfair trade practices elsewhere. These investigations by Commerce and the ITC should take approximately 13 months, though preliminary duties and determinations are expected in the next 3 to 5 months. The heavily subsidized Russian imports have been sold below market prices since 2022. And at the very time that we reduced annual production at our Montana operations by 200,000 ounces and cut 700 jobs because of low palladium prices, Russian imports stepped up into the U.S. Imports of unwrought palladium from Russia into the U.S. increased by 35% from 2022 to 2024 and increased by another 50% in the first quarter of 2025. It is this unfair trade practice specifically that we are addressing with the trade remedies that we have available to us in the U.S. In handing over to Grant to talk to our recycling business, let me just note that while auto cat recycling remains subdued in the U.S. and hence impacts our Columbus recycling business, our move into industrial scrap and e-scrap recycling through Reldan is performing above plan, which is very pleasing to see. We are also excited to add metallics to this platform in the near future, which will allow us to unlock further synergies as we build out a substantial critical minerals recycling business that is complementary to our U.S. PGM mining business. Thank you.
Grant Stuart, Recycling Business Lead
Thanks very much, Charles, and good day, everyone. Our recycling journey in Montana began over 2 decades ago when spare melt capacity was first leveraged to process spent autocatalytic converters. What started off as an efficiency initiative has evolved into a strategic platform. Since acquiring Stillwater in 2017, we have deliberately strengthened and expanded this capability, transforming Columbus into the cornerstone of our recycling business and the springboard for broader growth. While the global auto cat recycling market remains under pressure with macroeconomic factors extending a vehicle's life on the road and thereby limiting short-term volume recovery, Columbus continues to form as a stable cash-generative platform. In the first half of 2025, average daily feed was 9.6 short tonnes per day, slightly below the prior year due in part to market factors, but also due to the transition to a second furnace, which resulted in a temporary inventory buildup of 147 tonnes containing an estimated 12,000 3E PGM ounces. With the electric furnace now operational, inventories are expected to normalize in Q3 of 2025. Together with the $126 million of Section 45X credits that Charles has just mentioned, Columbus delivered an adjusted EBITDA of $129 million or ZAR 2.4 billion. As part of our growth strategy, we acquired Reldan 15 months ago. Reldan has been a successfully integrated entity into our organization and delivered $20 million in operating cash flows year-to-date, equating to an adjusted EBITDA of $18 million or ZAR 330 million. Reldan is structurally well positioned underpinned by strong Fortune 500 customer base, a disciplined operating model with a sharp focus on cost management and a suite of industrial and precious metals. Year-to-date, we have processed 8.6 million pounds of industrial scrap and waste and sold 64,000 ounces of gold, 933 ounces of silver, 20,000 ounces of PGMs and 1.5 million pounds of copper. Most recently, we announced the acquisition of Metallics. Now Metallics further strengthens our value proposition by adding scale, advanced processing technologies and logistics and a logistics fleet that extends our sourcing reach across the U.S. Together with Reldan, we will have presence in Mexico, India, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Taiwan. Metallics brings increased volumes of gold, silver, PGMs and copper and like Reldan, is expected to be cash generative from day 1. So what we have now is a platform with real structural integrity and reach. Our auto cat platform is the mature foundation with PGM scale, dependable assay capability, quick turnaround times and a business with integrity and reputation. Reldan as a diversification engine with a geographic reach and competence and scale in gold and silver and now Metallics as the accelerator of scale and innovation. It is expected that the transaction will close in September now that we have all regulatory approvals in hand. In conclusion, this is more than a series of acquisitions. It's a strategic convergence that redefines what's possible in precious metal recycling and positions us uniquely to shape a cleaner, greener future. Thanks, and over to you, Robert.
Robert Van Niekerk, Australian Operations Lead
Thank you, Grant, and hi, everyone. I'm pleased to report that the Australian operations had a good start to 2025. They produced 51,000 tonnes of payable zinc metal, which is a 22% year-on-year increase. This level of production even exceeded my own expectations and was thanks to less rain this year compared to last year and also the successful implementation of remedial measures to address risk excess of rainfall. As one would expect, with an increase in production, costs come down, and the unit costs this year are 21% lower than for the same period last year. The H1 good performance was supported by an 11% increase in the average zinc metal price and increased from $2,366 a tonne in 2024 to $2,626 per tonne in 2025. Worthwhile mentioning is the treatment charges, which were less than 50% of what they were last year, this in part due to the industry benchmark, which was lower, but also the team capitalizing on very lucrative spot sale agreements in the first half of this year. Increased metal production, reduced costs, higher metal price all contributed to an adjusted EBITDA of $36 million, which was significantly more than the $19 million loss of 2024. Looking at the remaining 6 months for the year, we've hedged approximately 60% of our zinc, which we can produce, and this at a cap and a floor of between AUD 4,900 per tonne and AUD 4,100 per tonne. And this, coupled with a decent performance, is going to assist us to contribute very significantly to the organization again. Closing out with the development projects, the feasibility study for the Mount Lyell copper project in Tasmania is progressing well, and I'm expecting it to be finished before the end of this year. And then the phosphate feasibility study, which uses the Century existing infrastructure, is expected to be finished in the first quarter of next year. At this point, I'll hand over to Mika. Thank you very much.
Mika Seitovirta, Strategy and Business Development Lead
Thanks, Rob, and hi, all. Greetings from Finland. We have 2 strategic projects in the region Europe, which are classified as strategic by the European Commission, and it's obviously related to Critical Minerals Act. We are quite proud of that. Although market for lithium is currently challenging, we can see that the electric vehicle volumes are growing again in the region Europe. If you look at Q2 sales numbers, it was almost 30% positive year-on-year. Our long-term view about EVs and lithium has not changed. We see it very positively. And what we can say also is that particularly when we are having the pole position to enter the lithium hydroxide market in Europe, so we are confident that that will give us longer term a lot of opportunities. We are on schedule, and we are also on the CapEx plan, which was revised just some time ago to EUR 783 million. As you can see, EUR 577 million so far has been used, and we haven't changed the guidance for the total year '25 on this one. It's still EUR 300 million. The permits are in place for us to start. And we did an impairment because of the lithium price outlook being more challenging than what it was before. This impairment is about 35% of the value. Currently, we are working on different options, different financial scenarios, different risk management actions, how to mitigate the risks during the ramp-up but also looking what is the most responsible way of ramping up and starting this operation for all the stakeholders. Let's then move to Sandouville France. Actually, we are working on 2 streams there. One is about history, and the other one is about future. We have ramped down the current production during H1. And we are now preparing Q3 for care and maintenance, and we continue that Q4. And at the end of the year, we are going to be in care and maintenance. The future work is obviously about GalliCam. And GalliCam project is now going forward in a good way. We believe that we can finalize the pre-feasibility study around the year-end. Maybe just a few words about the ramp-down of the current production. We have been following the plan, and the plan was to ramp it down at the end of H1, and we are there. We have also agreed already with 72 out of our 200 headcount to leave the company still during this year. We are negotiating with the unions in good faith to do further reductions in order to reach the care and maintenance position at the end of the year. What does it mean? We are targeting, give and take, to 60 in this headcount reduction, and half of that would be care and maintenance and the other half is GalliCam project. About GalliCam, I said it's advancing well, and we have very good encouraging results from the lab tests. The pCAM product is not yet ready. We are still working with the density of the product. We are going to do tests in the cells and so on. But the research and development work together with the engineering work is progressing well. We are also looking for possible partners to mitigate the risks further and to make sure that we are part of the right ecosystems if we make the decision after the feasibility study to continue. So thank you very much all. And over to you, Charl.
Charl A. Keyter, Finance Lead
Thank you, Mika, and good afternoon to all participants on the call. It is my pleasure to take you through the financial results for the 6 months ended 30 June 2025. Group revenue decreased by 1% to ZAR 54.8 billion with increased commodity prices offset by lower volumes. Cost of sales decreased by 20%. However, if we normalize for the impact of Section 45X for 2023 and 2024, it reduced by 11% or ZAR 5.4 billion. EBITDA increased from ZAR 6.6 billion to ZAR 15.1 billion. And if we normalize for the Section 45 impact of 2023 and 2024, it increased by 60% to ZAR 10.7 billion. Moving on to impairments. The U.S. operations realized an impairment of ZAR 4.2 billion, and this was due to the Section 45X credit phaseout in 2034, which was clarified in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act recently enacted in the United States. Previously, this legislation had an evergreen time frame for Section 45X. The impairment at Keliber of ZAR 5.3 billion was predominantly due to changes in economic factors, most notably the lithium price assumptions. At Mimosa, we also booked a ZAR 461 million impairment due to the increased operating cost and capital and the introduction of the Zimbabwean beneficiation tax on platinum. The net impact of all of this was a loss for the period of ZAR 3.9 billion, but it turns into a profit of ZAR 1.9 billion if we exclude the noncash impairments and the historical Section 45X credits. Headline earnings per share increased from ZAR 0.10 per share to ZAR 1.90 per share or a 19-fold increase. On the dividends, as mentioned by Richard, due to the current volatile global economic and geopolitical environment, we felt it prudent not to pay an interim dividend. A decision will be taken at the end of the year once we've had some time to see if the commodity price performance is sustainable. Turning to our debt position. Gross debt increased to ZAR 40.2 billion from the December 2024 reported number of ZAR 39.4 billion. Net debt stands at ZAR 19.2 billion, and available cash was ZAR 21 billion, and available liquidity, which includes our undrawn facilities, is just under ZAR 47 billion. On the bonds, we remain on track to refinance the 2026 $675 million notes in H1 2026. At this stage, we are targeting downsizing the notes to $500 million. Also pleasingly, the 2028 $500 million convertible bond is now in the money as the share price have been trading well above the conversion price of approximately ZAR 24 a share. Just to note that this convertible bond is callable in November 2026. I will now hand over to Melanie Naidoo-Vermaak to provide an update on our renewable energy portfolio. Thank you, Melanie.
Melanie Naidoo-Vermaak, Sustainability Lead
Thank you very much, Charl. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening to all our attendees. As Neal and Richard have often emphasized, sustainability is a principle and one that's deeply embedded in the group's strategy, its operations and values. Our sustainability framework comprises several key pillars, with our commitment to decarbonization being one of the most critical. The group's renewable energy program is our most powerful lever for decarbonization given that 92% of our group emissions originate from Eskom. And through the development of our large-scale solar and wind projects, alongside innovative energy solutions, we're actively reducing our emissions, we're lowering our operational costs and strengthening energy security. And the milestones achieved this year demonstrate that we are firmly on track to meet our 600-megawatt renewable energy target by 2027. At the end of March this year, Castle wind farm entered commercial operation, already giving us 56 gigawatts of clean energy with a ZAR 21.6 million cost saving for the South African region. And our Springbok solar facility is undergoing grid compliance certification as we speak, and we expect our first energy from that project in the next few days. The graphs on this slide show our growing portfolio of privately developed renewable projects, which, when fully operational, will get us to the 30% substitution of our utility energy supply by mid-2027, and that would reduce our annual emissions by 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. These projects, coupled to our pipeline in development, gets us to that 600-megawatt target by 2027, driving tangible progress toward a more sustainable and resilient energy future. Thank you. Richard, handing back to you to conclude.
Richard Andrew Stewart, CEO Designate
Thank you very much, Melanie. So I think just to move us into a final conclusion for today's presentation. I think as mentioned earlier, most of our operations are still well within guidance, and we look forward to a very constructive second half of 2025. The only guidance that we are revising in line with, as I discussed, the review of the current turf operations, is our South African gold guidance, which has been revised down from 16 to 17 tonnes of gold to 15 to 16 tonnes of gold at all-in sustaining costs of between ZAR 1.45 million and ZAR 1.55 million per kilogram. The balance of guidance, as I say, remains unchanged from what we put out earlier this year. Thank you very much to all of my colleagues for the detailed presentations given. So I think in conclusion, as you can see from both the heading as well as the strap line on the slide, our immediate focus is very much on prioritizing safe production, optimizing our margins and ultimately continuing to strengthen our balance sheet. As described earlier, I think we have a unique asset portfolio and are very well strategic positioned to not only survive but thrive in the very turbulent market conditions we currently find ourselves in. Our production turnaround has been pleasing post the repositioning and restructuring and good progress made on eliminating fatalities, albeit that still remains our #1 focus. Our improved operational performance has underpinned the financial turnaround that we have seen over the last 6 months. And today, most of our operations are either generating positive cash flow or very close to it, and we expect to see that turning during 2026. The closure of Sandouville later this year will continue to reduce losses further from that operation. And as we move through the peak funding of both Keliber and K4, we look to a higher cash flow conversion and that benefiting our overall gross debt position. The significant Section 45 payments, we look to that cash coming through in 2026, again, benefiting the balance sheet. And today, we remain very bullish on gold given the current market dynamics and are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for PGM markets, fundamentally remaining very bullish in the medium term but in the short term remain focused on the fundamentals coming through. I think our balance sheet is healthy. We have a low leverage. We have ample liquidity and sufficient debt headroom with a derisked debt maturity ladder ahead of us. We have been responsible with our capital allocation during a very difficult cycle, both managing to preserve the balance sheet but at the same time investing to ensure the longevity of our business. Overall, the outlook for the second half, particularly if commodity prices remain where they are, is extremely positive both on an operational and from a financial perspective. But we recognize that our absolute focus needs to be on what is within our control. It means a sustained safety improvement combined with operational and cost discipline, which will remain our absolute core focus. Thank you once again for joining us today, and I'll now hand over to James to manage any questions you may have. Thank you.
James R. Wellsted, Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, everyone, and well done, gents, for the presentation. Starting with a question from Arnold Van Graan from Nedbank. Richard, you had some challenges at the SA gold ops. Have we seen the brunt of the impact of these challenges, I assume, meaning end? And when do you expect the operational performance to stabilize? How should we think about the SA gold production and CapEx profile over the next 2 to 3 years?
Richard Andrew Stewart, CEO Designate
Thanks very much for that question. So I think as we mentioned, I do think that both Beatrix and Driefontein have stabilized. I think always important to remember, and that's the point we were trying to highlight, assets of this size, when they get to this point in their lives, are very operationally geared. And of course, they don't have the levels of flexibility that they had 5 or 10 years ago. But certainly, those 2 operations seem to have stabilized well. I think our major challenge has, of course, been the Kloof operations. And on the back of the seismicity and some of the decisions we've made around what we will not consider mining predominantly from a safety perspective and the infrastructure that we've got there, we are undertaking that review to understand what Kloof's outlook looks like. So I think to try and give you some sort of high-level numbers, I think what we can expect over the next couple of years, Driefontein is probably going to be producing in the region of 8 to 8.5 tonnes of gold or, let's call it, 0.25 million ounces-odd. I think Beatrix is probably around half of that, so about 4 tonnes of gold, 125,000 ounces. Kloof has historically been doing and expected to do in the region of about 5 to 6 tonnes. I think we can expect to see that probably halving based on what we have seen, but that is the work that we are finalizing and will come to the market with in the near future. So I'd be saying from our underground operations going forward, probably in the region of about 475,000, 480,000 ounces per annum. Of course, we've obviously got our surface operations in DRD on top of that. I think the CapEx question is a good one. If you go back and look at our capital profile over the years, it's been pretty consistent at about ZAR 3.5 billion per annum over the last few years, excluding project CapEx. And again, as I say, these are large operations with a lot of fixed infrastructure. Most of that goes into sustaining that fixed infrastructure. So we've sustained that throughout, and that won't change. I think sustaining capital in terms of that infrastructure is almost irrelevant in terms of the total volume you're outputting. So I would say you can expect the capital to remain roughly the same at about ZAR 3.5 billion per annum.
James R. Wellsted, Head of Investor Relations
Thanks, Rich. It seems that some analysts and investors are quick to ask questions that were already addressed in the presentation, making my efforts feel wasted. The first question is from René Hochreiter, congratulations on the Section 45 benefits. Can you elaborate on how you plan to reduce costs below $1,000 per ounce at Stillwater? Rich, would you like to respond or pass it to Charles? Charles?
Charles Carter, US Operations
Thank you, James and Rich, and thank you, René, for your question. To answer your inquiry, there are no quick fixes, as this will be a gradual transition. We've invested a lot of effort into this and continue to do so. When considering Stillwater East and East Boulder, there are two significant changes needed over time. The first is to fully automate cut and fill processes, and the second is to enhance sublevel extraction. We have conducted thorough internal studies on mining cycles recently, which reveal that the time spent at the face is primarily associated with bolting, which accounts for 36% on average, and mucking, which accounts for 21% on average. To tackle these issues, we have tested a fully mechanized bolter. This equipment increases both the height and length of each round, resulting in some dilution but potentially yielding many more ounces per blast cycle. If we successfully implement this, and the initial trials of the Komatsu mechanized bolter at Stillwater East show positive results, we will need to address the increased tonnage and volumes carefully, particularly regarding ore handling at Stillwater. At East Boulder, the ore body has a different dip angle, necessitating the use of a smaller bolter. All of this effort is highlighting a significant opportunity to achieve lower costs, enhanced productivity, and improved mining cycles. However, as we increase ounces, we must also pay close attention to tailings and rock dump capacities. At East Boulder, we have postponed some capital expenditures for those expansions this year, and we must navigate a set of interconnected factors carefully. We are confident that we can reach costs around $1,000 an ounce within a couple of years by addressing these components and reinvesting in tailings capacity at East Boulder. We are currently working on these trade-offs and expect to have clarity on this by year-end, with a market update planned for early next year. I hope this answers your key questions, René. In terms of sublevel extraction for further opportunities, we are conducting substantial geotechnical work to determine the most effective approach. Overall, our optimization efforts have significantly advanced compared to one or two years ago, and I feel optimistic about our progress as we discuss this early next year. However, this will not be resolved in just one quarter; it will take two to three years to get everything right. Thank you.
James R. Wellsted, Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, Charles. The next question is from Lorenzo Parisi at JPMorgan. Again, I think these are answered or were answered in the presentation, but how confident are we to receive the $285 million actual cash inflow next year from the Section 45X credits? Would we expect to receive additional Section 45X credits in future on top of the $285 million? I think Neal indicated a fair value that was quite sizable from future Section 45X credits. Can you remind us of the expected CapEx for next year? And then at current prices, would you expect to generate free cash flow next year but also the lower CapEx spend but excluding Section 45X credits? I think that's probably for Charles.
Charles Carter, US Operations
Thanks. Look, on 45X, I mean we're following the letter of the law. We're doing our tax submissions and revisions in the second half, and then it runs a process. So it's legislated. We are still first cabs off the rank on this. So until we get the check in the mail next year, I'm obviously cautious, but there's nothing that suggests you wouldn't get that. So hence, our current accounting treatment. But I think the whole industry is now navigating the early submissions on 45X. So there's a look back for 2 years, and that's what we've been dealing with in the numbers today. And then there's obviously a look forward over the next several years. So it's a very material positive addition to U.S. critical minerals mining. And I think it's one that we've been very directly involved with in the prior administration and also with the current administration to make sure that it works well. So I think the mechanics are mapped out in law, I think the process is there, and we are busy navigating that. So we expect the cash returns next year. James, just remind me of the second part of the question, please?
James R. Wellsted, Head of Investor Relations
Okay. Let me just get back to the...
Charles Carter, US Operations
We will provide guidance on capital at Stillwater for next year once we finalize our market release through our executive team and Board during the late-year planning submissions. Recently, we have seen positive movement in palladium prices, although we cannot confirm that yet. We anticipate this trend will continue. Once we reach a 2E price between $1,200 and $1,300, along with our efforts to enhance operating efficiency and lower cost structures, we expect to return to positive cash flow, which is our goal. The exact timing will depend on prices and our progress in reducing costs. We have seen a significant shift over the past year and are committed to continuing that momentum.
James R. Wellsted, Head of Investor Relations
Sibanye Stillwater has announced it will acquire U.S. precious metals recycler Metallix in a deal valued at $82 million in cash. When will this be finalized? Will this impact the figures for 2025 and in what way? That's the first part of the question. I'll ask the second part later. Charles, would you like to address that?
Grant Stuart, Recycling Business Lead
James, I think let Grant go. I mean I can address it, but it'd be good for Grant to work with it. Thanks. Yes. Thanks, James. Thanks, Charles. The deal, the transaction is looking to close towards the back end of this month. So yes, we're looking towards September for the welcoming of the Metallix team on board. As far as the strategy goes and the integration, we're looking at clearly optimizing and making sure that we realize synergies from that. So we expect that the operation will be cash-generative from day 1, together with the synergies and optimization opportunities definitely impacting positively the financials for '25.
Richard Andrew Stewart, CEO Designate
In handing over to Grant to talk to our recycling business, let me just note that while auto cat recycling remains subdued in the U.S. and hence impacts our Columbus recycling business, our move into industrial scrap and e-scrap recycling through Reldan is performing above plan, which is very pleasing to see. We are also excited to add metallics to this platform in the near future, which will allow us to unlock further synergies as we build out a substantial critical minerals recycling business that is complementary to our U.S. PGM mining business.
Robert Van Niekerk, Australian Operations Lead
In conclusion, this is more than a series of acquisitions. It's a strategic convergence that redefines what's possible in precious metal recycling and positions us uniquely to shape a cleaner, greener future. Thanks, and over to you, Robert.
Richard Andrew Stewart, CEO Designate
The only guidance that we are revising in line with, as I discussed, the review of the current turf operations, is our South African gold guidance, which has been revised down from 16 to 17 tonnes of gold to 15 to 16 tonnes of gold at all-in sustaining costs of between ZAR 1.45 million and ZAR 1.55 million per kilogram. The balance of guidance, as I say, remains unchanged from what we put out earlier this year. Thank you very much to all of my colleagues for the detailed presentations given.