Earnings Call Transcript - SDRL Q3 2025

Operator, Operator

Thank you for joining us today for Seadrill's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. I will now turn the call over to Kevin Smith, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Kevin Smith, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations

Welcome to Seadrill's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. I'm Kevin Smith, Vice President of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations. And I'm joined today by Simon Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer; Samir Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; and Grant Creed, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainty. Actual results may differ materially. No one should assume these forward-looking statements remain valid later in the quarter or year, and we assume no obligation to update them, except as required by securities laws. Our filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission provide a more detailed discussion of our forward-looking statements and the risk factors affecting our business. During the call, we will also reference non-GAAP measures. Our earnings release furnished to the SEC and available on our website includes reconciliations with the nearest corresponding GAAP measures. Our use of the term EBITDA on today's call corresponds with the term adjusted EBITDA as defined in our earnings release. I'll now turn the call over to Simon.

Simon Johnson, President and CEO

Thanks, Kevin. Hello, and thank you for joining us for today's call. I'll begin with some highlights from this quarter, which demonstrate Seadrill's continued execution of our strategy to build backlog coverage through 2026, maximize utilization of our high-specification fleet, and deliver the operational excellence that drives continuity and long-lasting relationships built on trust and performance. Following my remarks, Samir will provide detail on our contract awards and market outlook. Grant will then review third quarter financial results and provide updated guidance for 2025. As we navigate a period of fluctuating demand, one aspect of our commercial strategy remains clear: Maximize shareholder value by minimizing costly gaps between contracts. Since our last update, we've added over $300 million to our backlog, securing new contracts across five rigs. In what is a very competitive market, our collaborative approach with customers and the exceptional performance by our crews have enabled us to maintain our competitive edge. In Angola, securing work for the three rigs in the Sonadrill joint venture was a key strategic priority, enhancing the longevity of the partnership and reaffirming our position as the number one drillship operator in Angola. The Sonangol Libongos commenced its new program in August, keeping the rig committed into early 2027 and extending the relationship with our client into its eighth year. This show of faith by the customer reflects the results delivered by our offshore crews and onshore teams day after day. The Libongos has been recognized as the Seadrill rig of the quarter eight times more than any other drillship in our fleet. The Sonangol Quenguela, which has worked for TotalEnergies since its maiden contract in 2022, has also won further work on a direct continuation basis and began its new program in early October. The Quenguela was awarded TotalEnergies Rig of the Year for 2024 and has sustained its exceptional operational performance through 2025. Finally, the Seadrill owned West Gemini recently completed its special periodic survey and is expected to commence a well-based contract with Sonangol E&P in the next few months. All three rigs operated through the Sonadrill joint venture have delivered exceptional performance year-to-date, each achieving near perfect technical uptime in excess of 99.7%. This accomplishment reflects our unwavering commitment to deliver industry-leading operational performance. We sincerely thank our joint venture partner and valued customers for entrusting Seadrill with the management and technical delivery of Sonadrill's operations. Our teams have demonstrated a commitment to developing local talent, world-class performance, and crucially, staying at the top of the performance curve. We are proud to contribute to the prosperity of Angola, its communities, and stakeholders, building a lasting legacy of responsible development and shared success. In the U.S. Gulf, the West Vela and Sevan Louisiana each secured new programs in direct continuation, adding a combined firm term of 195 days. The West Vela was awarded a one-well contract with Walter Oil & Gas, which we anticipate will commence in March 2026. The rig will then return to work for Talos to drill an appraisal well following the discovery drilled by West Vela in August this year. The West Vela demonstrates our ability to leverage team expertise and performance excellence. Twenty-five percent of the crew have been with the rig since it left the shipyard in 2013, and it was among the first rigs in our fleet to be equipped with managed pressure drilling. A decade of shared experience in technology development allows us to drill and complete wells that were previously considered too challenging. The West Vela remains one of, if not the best performing rig in the U.S. Gulf, routinely executing programs well ahead of schedule and under budget. The Sevan Louisiana has secured a new contract with Walter Oil & Gas, which is expected to keep the rig working for over two months following the completion of its current assignment with Murphy Oil. We're grateful to Walter Oil & Gas for their continued partnership and confidence in our crews and assets. These new contracts reflect the strong collaboration we've built over time. Also worth noting, the Sevan Louisiana is expected to finish its current campaign with Murphy Oil ahead of schedule. We appreciate the faith Murphy has placed in Seadrill as a new customer and look forward to building on our partnership as we support their operations going forward. We continue to set the standard in collaboration and innovation. Our recent partnership with Trendsetter on well intervention activities in the U.S. Gulf is our most recent example. We're preparing to install Trendsetter's equipment on the Sevan Louisiana, making an already distinctive rig in both design and function even more capable. This upgrade gives the rig flexible operating modes across both shallow and deepwater environments, opening new markets and enhancing its commercial appeal. Staying in the U.S. Gulf, the West Neptune commenced its first well with its newly installed MPD system in October with LLOG. The rig system includes the state-of-the-art Integrated Riser Joint that is set to be the new standard in safer, more efficient, and more reliable MPD operations. The West Polaris is also equipped with this system and has successfully delivered two MPD wells for Petrobras so far this year. By executing wells safely, ahead of schedule, and under budget, we've built a reputation as a trusted offshore partner in the Golden Triangle and in key markets around the world. Additionally, we continue to actively increase the capabilities of our rigs through time with the addition of advanced technologies such as MPD. Turning to the market, we continue to see a constructive pace of contracting and an uptick in global tendering activity, building momentum for a market recovery as we move from 2026 into 2027. Seadrill has consistently highlighted the industry's underinvestment in offshore and the need for renewed sustained spending to offset production declines and meet future energy demand. Our view has been validated. Oil majors are calling for renewed focus on exploration and investment to avoid a future supply crunch, and there is a growing consensus that U.S. shale production has plateaued. At a recent conference, ConocoPhillips emphasized the need to return to large-scale projects and exploration. Notwithstanding the recent increases in production, Saudi Aramco warned of a looming global oil shortage due to a decade of underinvestment, calling for renewed spending on exploration and production. The Norwegian Continental Shelf, Equinor plans to drill 175 exploration wells by 2030. Var Energi is targeting an average of 15 exploration wells annually over the next four years, and Aker BP intends to drill 10 to 15 exploration wells per year going forward. We agree with Oxy CEO, Vicki Hollub, who said, 'When you have the best discovery that has been made in the past couple of decades, i.e., Guyana, producing only enough to cover one third of the demand in one year, that is a big issue.' The renewed focus on deepwater is becoming clear as the industry faces the realities of prolonged underinvestment and the constraints of short-cycle supply. Capital is flowing back into offshore projects with a steady pace of new FIDs while exploration activity is gaining pace across many geographies and geologies. At the same time, natural gas demand continues to climb, driven by emerging uses such as data centers and the need to support an overstretched power grid. Deepwater is once again at the center of meeting the world's energy needs. With that, I'll turn the call over to Samir.

Samir Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Thanks, Simon, and good day, everyone. To recap, since our last earnings release, we've added over $300 million in backlog, bringing Seadrill's total contracted backlog to approximately $2.5 billion. We made strong commercial progress, securing new work across five rigs, eliminating idle time while focusing on cash generation. Starting with Angola, all three rigs in the Sonadrill joint venture have been extended. The Sonangol Quenguela has been awarded a 210-day program with TotalEnergies, which will keep the rig working into mid-2026. We remain confident that the rig will secure more work in the near future. The Sonangol Libongos began a 525-day program in August, filling its schedule into 2027. The West Gemini will start a 280-day contract in the next one to two months, following the completion of its special periodic survey during the third quarter. Combined, these three awards solidify our leading position in Angola. In the U.S. Gulf, two of our three rigs secured new contracts in direct continuation of existing operations. The West Vela was awarded a contract with Walter Oil & Gas. Drilling is expected to commence in March 2026 with an estimated duration of 65 days and a total contract value of $28 million, excluding MPD. Following this program, the rig will return to work for Talos to drill an appraisal well. The Sevan Louisiana has secured a short program also with Walter Oil & Gas, expected to last around 70 days, starting immediately after it concludes the current work with Murphy. Collectively, these awards contribute over three years of backlog, reinforcing the effectiveness of our contracting strategy and the robustness of our customer relationships. Our track record demonstrates an ability to attract new clients while consistently securing additional work with existing partners. Turning to the market and to build on Simon's remarks, we continue to see constructive contracting momentum and an uptick in global tendering activity, supporting a broad-based recovery. These dynamics lead us to believe that there will be an increase in contracted utilization and meaningful day rate progression as we move from 2026 into 2027. The International Energy Agency's latest report reinforces what we're hearing in customer discussions. It highlights that nearly 90% of upstream investment since 2019 has gone towards offsetting production declines rather than adding new capacity. Conventional oilfields now account for only 77% of global oil output, down from 97% in 2000, emphasizing the need for new offshore projects. At the same time, the IEA has halved its forecast for U.S. renewable energy growth by 2030, which signals that hydrocarbons will remain a central part of global energy supply for longer than previously expected. Combined with plateaued shale production, we believe the stage is set for a renewed investment in deepwater development. We're seeing this recognition translate into real investment. Operators are sanctioning major offshore projects with attractive economics and robust breakeven profiles. Recent final investment decisions include ExxonMobil's $6.8 billion Hammerhead development in Guyana, supporting continued drillship demand in that basin, BP's $5 billion Tiber-Guadalupe project in the U.S. Gulf with six development wells and additional phases under review, Eni's $7.2 billion Coral Norte development and TotalEnergies' recently lifting force majeure on its $20 billion greenfield LNG project, both in Mozambique. Beyond development activity, exploration momentum is also building. In Brazil, Petrobras secured approval for its first equatorial margin well since 2013, part of a plan for 15 wells and $3 billion investment through 2029. Also in Brazil, Equinor has expanded its pre-salt position through its acquisition of two new blocks, highlighting its continued commitment to the pre-salt sector and renewed global interest in Brazil's offshore resources, spurred by BP's recent Bumerangue discovery. In Indonesia, Eni and PETRONAS have created a JV that plans to drill 15 exploration wells and invest over $15 billion in the region over the next five years. Earlier this week, Shell finalized an agreement to return to Angola following a 25-year absence, securing exploration rights for four new deepwater blocks and investing $1 billion in the project. More generally, Africa and Asia remain the leading sources of incremental demand. Multiple tenders continue to progress, and we remain optimistic that these will translate into rig commitments in late 2026 and 2027. In addition to activity elsewhere, it is our view that Africa and Asia will be the key geographies which dictate the balance of supply and demand over the next 18 months. In summary, the offshore industry is at an inflection point. After nearly a decade of underinvestment, the market is refocusing on offshore as a critical source of future supply, and Seadrill is strategically positioned to capture value from that momentum. With that, I'll hand it over to Grant.

Grant Creed, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Samir. I'll now walk through our third quarter financial results before providing an update on the remainder of the calendar year. Total operating revenues for the third quarter were $363 million, representing a sequential decrease of $14 million. Contract drilling revenues declined $8 million to $280 million. The decrease is attributable to fewer operating days for West Vela and Sevan Louisiana and lower economic utilization compared to the prior quarter. Management contract revenues decreased $2 million quarter-on-quarter to $63 million as the prior quarter included a retrospective catch-up for year-to-date inflationary increases to the daily management fee Seadrill earns for providing management, operational, and technical support to Sonadrill. Reimbursable revenues decreased $5 million to $11 million, offset by a corresponding decrease in reimbursable expenses. Total operating expenses for the third quarter were $337 million, down 9% from the prior quarter. The decrease mostly relates to a $44 million reduction in management contract expenses as the prior quarter included an accrual for historic fees payable pertaining to the Sonadrill joint venture. This was partially offset by an $11 million increase in vessel and rig operating expenses, largely driven by the timing of repairs and maintenance spend. Adjusted EBITDA was $86 million, a sequential decrease of $20 million from the prior quarter. Moving to the balance sheet and cash flow statement, we continue to maintain a robust balance sheet with total liquidity of approximately $600 million. At the end of the third quarter, gross principal debt remained at $625 million with maturities extending through 2030. Total cash increased by $9 million to $428 million, including $26 million of restricted cash. Net cash flow from operations during the third quarter was $28 million and includes $69 million in additions to long-term maintenance. Payments for capital additions captured within investing activities were $19 million. As mentioned earlier, the West Gemini completed its SPS in September, with the associated cash outflows taking place in the third quarter. Moving on to our outlook for the remainder of the current year, we are narrowing the adjusted EBITDA range to $330 million to $360 million, and that's based on an updated range for operating revenues of $1.36 billion to $1.39 billion, and that excludes $50 million of reimbursable revenues. Adjusted EBITDA guidance includes a noncash net expense of $33 million related to the amortization of mobilization costs and revenues, of which $24 million has been recognized through September 30. Full-year capital expenditure guidance range is narrowed to $280 million to $300 million, and we expect capital expenditure and long-term maintenance to trend lower in 2026. I'll now hand the call back to Simon for his closing remarks.

Simon Johnson, President and CEO

Thank you, Grant. In summary, we continue to execute our commercial strategy to build backlog coverage through 2026 and minimize our exposure to contract gaps. We're encouraged by signs that a market recovery is coming into view. We have consistently highlighted the industry's failure to replace deepwater reserves, a view that E&P supermajors are now acknowledging. A shift in capital allocated towards offshore drilling is well underway with a steady progression of contract awards and an increase in final investment decisions on major offshore projects. At the same time, a renewed focus on energy security amid geopolitical instability further reinforces the strategic importance of offshore resources. Seadrill is exceptionally well positioned to support long-term demand for energy services and create sustainable shareholder value. We believe that Seadrill represents compelling value, a view supported by the sell-side analyst community. Seadrill holds the highest proportion of buyer recommendations among the four largest U.S. listed offshore drillers, reflecting broad confidence in our long-term value creation potential. I'll now hand the call over for questions.

Operator, Operator

Our first question comes from Eddie Kim from Barclays.

Edward Kim, Analyst

Just wanted to ask about what you're seeing in terms of leading-edge day rates within the Golden Triangle. The two short-term contracts you just announced for the Vela suggest pricing is fairly resilient in that region. But you previously highlighted an expectation of some lower data points in West Africa. And I think investors are sort of bracing for maybe some other negative data points in Brazil here on some upcoming contract announcements. So first, do you expect maybe some negative data points coming out of Brazil? And second, is that sort of a fair characterization of how you're seeing things right now, so maybe some softness in West Africa and Brazil, but resilient in the U.S. Gulf? Any thoughts there would be great.

Samir Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Sure. So Eddie, I'd say it depends what market you're in. I'd say in the U.S. Gulf, you've seen what we think we can get, and we've shown that we're able to price at those levels. And you can do the math on the Vela contracts. It gets us in a pretty good spot. If I go to the other places of the Golden Triangle, I think in the near term, there is potentially some weakness, but it's not dramatic, right? So you're going to see things in those high threes, low fours, I think kind of it's generally where we're tracking across the Golden Triangle, but it's really hard to pin down exactly where. But I think for us, we've tried to be very conscious about filling those gaps and focusing on getting near-term work, and we've shown an ability to get those at pretty good rates here in the U.S. Gulf.

Edward Kim, Analyst

And then my follow-up is just on your medium- to longer-term outlook, which is very constructive. One of the things you said in prepared remarks was that you expect Africa and Asia to be the leading sources of incremental demand. We've heard from some of your peers about incremental demand in Africa, of course, but less so about Asia. So could you maybe talk about which countries or which operators you're most excited about in Asia as we look forward over the next 12 to 18 months?

Samir Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Sure. In Asia, we have programs in India, Malaysia, and Indonesia that are emerging right now. The operators involved include E&I, ONDC, and PTTEP. It's not limited to one operator or one region; it's spread across various parts of Asia. We are very optimistic about this market in the near term. Additionally, we have the West Capella, which is a dual activity MPD capable rig, and we believe it is well positioned in that market.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Fredrik Stene from Clarksons Securities.

Fredrik Stene, Analyst

Congratulations on the new contracts. I wanted to touch specifically on the Capella and the Carina. And Samir, you mentioned it briefly now in the end there for the Capella. But clearly, Capella idle already. Carina is rolling off early 2026. What are your current thoughts about potential downtime, et cetera, next year for those two rigs specifically?

Simon Johnson, President and CEO

Well, perhaps I can kick off first, Fredrik, and then I'll pass to Samir for a bit of color. But I think as Samir foreshadowed in the previous question, this team has done a really good job in incrementally adding term through time. And we do, in fact, have these three rigs that have first half exposure, but we are continuing to make progress on the contracting front. And when we have news on that, we can share that with you. But it's really the first half of next year, I think, where we have concern, and we expect that the market will start tightening in the second half. And we've done a good job, we believe, minimizing our exposure to that weak period of the market. But Samir, perhaps you can add some color.

Samir Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Sure. Regarding the South Asia region, the Carina, or the Capella, is well positioned for MPD dual activity. I'm optimistic that we'll have an announcement soon, but there’s nothing to share today. As for the Carina, we can either continue working in Brazil or pursue opportunities outside the country, and we’ve been actively bidding for that rig internationally as well. It’s a true seventh-generation asset with MPD capabilities, and we can easily retrofit it with a second BOP. This rig is scheduled to come off early next year, giving us the option to keep it in Brazil or relocate it to another region. Therefore, we have some flexibility with the Carina moving forward.

Fredrik Stene, Analyst

Just a follow-up on that, Samir. Under the assumption that you potentially win something in Brazil since there are a couple of unresolved tenders there going on already. I think they call for late '26, early 2027 start-ups. In the case that you would get an award from something there, are there any extension options on the Carina under the current contract that would limit downtime in between? Because Petrobras tend to have certain clauses that can make contract extensions possible.

Samir Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

If we're unable to close that gap, staying in Brazil may become less appealing for us. It will be difficult to bridge that gap, especially since 2026 has some open slots on the calendar and the market in Brazil is quite competitive. Therefore, if we cannot resolve this issue, it will make our presence in Brazil less desirable.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Ben Sommers from BTIG.

Benjamin Sommers, Analyst

So first, to touch on the Capella a little bit more. Just curious kind of how the cost deceleration on this rig has gone over the past few quarters. And then given the line of sight of potential work, kind of what would reactivation cost look like for that rig?

Grant Creed, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

On the cost side, we haven't provided many specifics as it's currently in active tenders. We mentioned that it's stacked, with the Eclipse costing between $7,000 and $8,000 a day, which is one end of the spectrum. It's actually more than that as we keep it available for tendering, but it's still lower than the typical warm stack of around $80,000 a day, sitting somewhere in between. Regarding reactivation costs, they really depend on the specific opportunity we are pursuing, so it varies from case to case. Therefore, I hesitate to provide exact figures. Think of it as a range, somewhere above 20 and below 50, depending on the opportunity we are reactivating for.

Benjamin Sommers, Analyst

And then as I look kind of in the back half of '26, I know we have some availabilities in the Gulf and elsewhere. I guess, kind of on the day rate comments made earlier, I guess, where do you see timing on a potential kind of day rate inflection point here when we can really start to see some notable momentum in leading-edge rates?

Samir Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Yes, I believe that the second half of 2026 and into 2027 is when we will begin to see a shift in the market. Initially, we will notice an increase in utilization, followed closely by an uptick in day rates. If our expectations hold true, we should start witnessing this momentum build as we approach 2027.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Doug Becker from Capital One.

Doug Becker, Analyst

Curious how you would characterize your conversations with Petrobras about reducing costs? And maybe a little more explicitly, do you see potential for any blend and extend contracts on any of the existing contracts? Or is it really on about reducing costs in other ways?

Simon Johnson, President and CEO

Doug, yes, look, I think at this stage, we're very early in those conversations with Petrobras. I think there's a couple of important points. We're very encouraged to see Petrobras seeking the expertise in the drillers to help identify efficiencies. I think both Petrobras and ourselves are focused on opportunities that will deliver win-win solutions. Both sides need to benefit from the discussions. We are certainly looking to trade value rather than give you lateral discounts, and blend and extend is definitely one of the potential approaches. So we're open to that where it makes sense in terms of our contract portfolio and the visibility of backlog and so on and so forth. Petrobras, as you know, is a very important customer for us. We've had a long-term relationship in what's an international market. And ultimately, rigs flow to where the greatest earnings potential is. It's notable that Petrobras have drilled more high-impact exploration wells so far this year and 2025, more so than any other operator in the world. And that's really encouraging for future demand. So the key point here, I think, is that any cost cutting or blend and extend discussions, et cetera, that's not going to have any impact on the underlying rig demand. We believe that continues to be robust on a many years ahead outlook. So yes, I mean, we're entering into those discussions with good faith, and we think there's a possibility of both sides obtaining advantage through a frank discussion of opportunities.

Doug Becker, Analyst

That sounds encouraging. And then, Simon, you appropriately highlighted the operational performance on a number of rigs. Economic utilization did slip sequentially in the third quarter. Just any rigs or regions to call out? And how do you see economic utilization trending going forward?

Simon Johnson, President and CEO

Yes, it was a little bit disappointing on the cost side there, and there's a reason for that, which, I mean, there's some comments in the press release and the Q that we filed, but we can add a little bit more color, too. And I'm joined here today with Marcel Wieggers, who is our Senior Vice President of Operations, who can talk about one of the operational incidents that occurred during the quarter that has sort of led to a departure from what our regular run rate is.

Marcel Wieggers, Senior Vice President of Operations

Hello, Doug. So during the quarter, one of our rigs operating in Brazil experienced a downtime event caused by design-related equipment failure. This issue resulted in operational downtime and additional costs to rectify the same and implement corrective measures. Learning from that event, we shared it across our fleet to prevent reoccurrence, of course. But in addition, we also proactively communicated these insights to our industry peers who operate some of our equipment to help them to mitigate this risk of similar failures in their operations. So if you look at our technical uptime for the quarter, if you exclude this rig, all the other rigs operated really well for the quarter with a technical uptime of 97.6%.

Simon Johnson, President and CEO

Yes. So we think it's a one-off, Doug, yes.

Operator, Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Josh Jayne from Daniel Energy Partners.

Joshua Jayne, Analyst

First one was just on the Louisiana upgrades you talked about. I assume you wouldn't do those without line of sight into something further. So maybe you could just talk about those upgrades a bit more and how they change the outlook for the rig maybe over the course of the next 12 months or so.

Simon Johnson, President and CEO

In the Gulf of Mexico, the semisubmersible market has been quite dynamic, and several of our competitors have recently retired their rigs. To keep the Louisiana rig continuously busy, we have had to explore different modes of operation. We've become quite aggressive in the plug and abandonment and well intervention market. This involves making specific modifications to the rig and establishing a partnership with Trendsetter to enable transitions between drilling, well intervention, and plug and abandonment modes. These modifications are important, but we also need to have confidence in the potential of this market segment. Samir will provide additional insights on this.

Samir Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

We are definitely seeing increased demand in this region, especially in the U.S. Gulf, due to the combination of the Sevan Louisiana and the Trendsetter system. The unique capabilities of the Sevan position it as a valuable asset in this market. As a result, we continue to have clients reaching out to inquire about the availability of that rig.

Joshua Jayne, Analyst

And then on the Sonadrill rigs, congrats on the short-term extensions. Could you speak to the further outlook of those rigs? What exactly they're looking for with respect to signing the rigs up longer-term? And when they do get long-term contracts, any thought on the term that they're ultimately looking for?

Samir Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Yes, absolutely. So I'd say, in my prepared remarks, I kind of alluded to that we feel confident in our abilities to add some more term to the Quenguela's schedule. That remains the case. We're in active dialogue about how do we add more term also with the West Gemini. I'd say both of those rigs, primary market would be Angola, but the joint venture isn't limited just to Angola. We do have the ability to take those rigs to other parts of Africa as well. So for us, we are focused on keeping the rigs working in Angola, given it's a natural home for them, and you've seen production decline in that market, and there is an active effort by the Angolan government to reverse that production decline. So it's natural to stay there, but it doesn't have to.

Simon Johnson, President and CEO

Yes. We've seen subdued demand in Angola in recent times, Josh. But I think it's important to remember that two of the assets that are operated by the joint venture are directly owned by Sonangol. And when it comes time to be fed, they're ahead of the queue. And we're not concerned at all about long-term contracting opportunities for the rigs and the joint venture going forward.

Operator, Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Noel Parks from Tuohy Brothers.

Noel Parks, Analyst

As I reflect on the last few months since our last quarterly report and as we wrapped up the summer, it seems those optimistic signs we've been seeing have truly come to fruition. I do remember hints of customers becoming more willing to make commitments. Is it simply that, over time, companies have finally made decisions about their budgets and prioritized deepwater activity? I was also wondering if the prospect of Brent prices in the low sixty range has encouraged them to reengage in deepwater exploration.

Simon Johnson, President and CEO

Yes. Look, it's a really interesting question, Noel. Look, perhaps what I can do is speak a little bit to the backdrop and then Samir can speak to what we're seeing at an industry level. I think the key thing is that despite some of the near-term macroeconomic headwinds around tariffs, oil supply demand, we are firmly of the view that the fog is beginning to lift. And we're seeing a lot of data points emerge now, which support our view, which we've been talking about for some time. And definitely, the tone and the tenor of the conversations we're having with customers is improving. FIDs are progressing, contracts have been awarded. We're seeing the rig days awarded in Q3 as a 7% quarter-on-quarter increase, and we believe that's going to increase again in the final quarter of this year. And that's supported by industry commentators like Westwood. And of course, Seadrill are well placed for a couple of opportunities in that period. We're at a three-year trough in '24 for the value of the FIDs, but that's starting to flip now, and we're seeing quarter-on-quarter improvement. Subsea tree installations are forecast to be at the highest level at the end of this year. We know that there's this weak spot that we've spoke to earlier in the call in the first half of '26. But we see strong signs for improvement on a whole range of fronts beyond that. Investment in green renewable energy has been in constant decline since 2019. And all across the space, the supermajors are clearly stating that there's a return to conventional dispatchable energy. That's where they're spending their capital. But Samir, perhaps you can talk to some of the more focused elements.

Samir Ali, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer

Sure. So I'd say that the Red Queen paradox is becoming real for a lot of our clients, right? You've seen reserve replacement ratios at 22% over the last three years. The general upswelling of reserve replacement exploration has become kind of the real topic that when we speak to clients, it is becoming a part of their normal daily discussions. You've seen all the supermajors on their recent earnings calls or public announcements saying, there needs to be more exploration. And that's leading to more rig demand for kind of generally the overall market. And we've tried to position ourselves to capture that upswing that we see coming in late 2026 and into 2027.

Noel Parks, Analyst

And I guess the other thing I was wondering is sort of filling out the picture. I was thinking about the comments from Conoco and from Oxy. And are you also sort of seeing internally inside the bigger players things like signs of them staffing up or you're suddenly meeting with a new manager who wasn't there before or just signs of them reallocating resources to address the deepwater opportunity?

Simon Johnson, President and CEO

We are observing a variety of trends. Generally, the major companies, particularly the supermajors, are carefully evaluating their cost structures. However, we are noticing that some of these supermajors are rebuilding exploration teams that have either gone unfunded or have seen significant reductions in recent years. There is a dual narrative here: on one hand, they are concentrating on cost-effectiveness and reducing headcount; on the other hand, in areas related to new ventures and exploration, they appear to be willing to invest capital. We’re witnessing positive developments, such as the recent announcement of the Pakistan offshore oil licensing round and ExxonMobil’s investment in Greece. These are encouraging indicators of a more balanced approach to spending between exploration and production, aligning with the perspective we have been communicating to the market for several years.

Operator, Operator

Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.